This Trading Strategy Made $30M by Doing Less | Serge Interview

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Kurze Zusammenfassung

Serge Sushkoff teilt seine Erfahrungen als Trader, der durch konsequente Strategien und das Treffen von "Singles" über 30 Millionen Dollar Gewinn erzielt hat. Er betont die Bedeutung von Mentoring, kontinuierlicher Verbesserung und Anpassung an Marktveränderungen. Wichtige Punkte sind:

  • Die Wichtigkeit von Konsistenz und das Vermeiden von übermäßigem Risiko.
  • Die Bedeutung eines starken Netzwerks und Mentors im Trading.
  • Die Notwendigkeit, sich auf einfache, bewährte Strategien zu konzentrieren und diese konsequent anzuwenden.

Der Trader, der 30 Millionen Dollar mit "Singles" aufgebaut hat

Lance stellt Serge Sushkoff vor, einen Trader mit über 15 Jahren Erfahrung und 30 Millionen Dollar Gewinn. Serge's Ansatz konzentriert sich auf Konsistenz statt auf große Gewinne. Das Interview beleuchtet Serge's Karriereweg, beginnend mit seiner Kindheit in Russland und seinem Umzug nach New York City, bis hin zu seiner Karriere bei Trillium.

Wie Serge zum Trading fand (und warum er fast nicht dazu gekommen wäre)

Serge's Interesse an den Märkten begann früh, als er als Teenager während der Dotcom-Blase erste Erfahrungen mit Aktienkäufen machte und dabei Geld verdiente. Er studierte Finanz- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften am Babson College und nahm am Rottman Trading Wettbewerb in Toronto teil, was sein Interesse weiter verstärkte.

Landung bei Trillium während der Finanzkrise

Nach dem College führte die Finanzkrise dazu, dass Serge zunächst in der Aktienanalyse arbeitete. Durch einen Freund erfuhr er von Trillium und beschloss, sich dort zu bewerben, da er in der unsicheren Wirtschaftslage wenig zu verlieren hatte und das Trading ihn mehr interessierte als die Aktienanalyse.

Mentoring von einem der Besten im Unternehmen

Bei Trillium wurde Serge Jeff Hall zugeteilt, einem erfahrenen Mentor, der Wert auf Konsistenz und harte Arbeit legte. Serge lernte Halls Strategien, insbesondere im Bereich Momentum- und Earnings-Trading, und passte diese an seinen eigenen Stil an. Er betont die Bedeutung des Lernens von den besten Tradern im Umfeld.

Wie er in seinen ersten 6 Monaten Profitabilität fand

Serge fand früh Profitabilität, indem er sich auf Orderflow und Ineffizienzen in der Marktstruktur konzentrierte. Er nutzte Preisunterschiede bei korrelierten Aktien aus und achtete auf große Verkaufsaufträge, die Kursverschiebungen verursachten. Er erinnert sich an den "Flash Crash" von 2010 und die Möglichkeiten, die sich daraus ergaben. Innerhalb von 3 bis 6 Monaten erzielte er erste Erfolge, indem er risikoarme, hochwahrscheinliche Trades identifizierte.

Der größte Fehler, den neue Trader mit ihrem Playbook machen

Serge betont, dass der Schlüssel zum frühen Erfolg in einem engen Playbook und selektiven Trades liegt. Er rät dazu, sich auf wenige, gut verstandene Strategien zu konzentrieren und nur dann zu handeln, wenn die Bedingungen optimal sind. Dies hilft, Selbstvertrauen aufzubauen und ermöglicht es, später größere oder andere Trades zu wagen.

Umzug nach Chicago und das Trading auf ein neues Level heben

Der Umzug nach Chicago und die Zusammenarbeit mit Lance und anderen Top-Tradern ermöglichten es Serge, sein Trading auf ein höheres Niveau zu heben. Die strukturierte Umgebung mit Trade-Reviews und Datenbankanalysen half ihm, seine Daten genauer zu analysieren und seine Strategien zu verfeinern.

Was mit deinem G&V passiert, wenn du den Trading Floor verlässt

Serge spricht über die Herausforderungen des Remote-Tradings im Vergleich zum Trading auf dem Parkett. Er betont die Bedeutung eines Trading-Pods und regelmäßiger Trade-Reviews. Obwohl er weiterhin mit anderen Tradern kommuniziert, ist es nicht dasselbe wie die Energie und der Austausch im Büro. Er räumt ein, dass sein Gewinn nicht mehr oberste Priorität hat, seit er remote arbeitet.

Zusammen traden in einem COVID-Apartment (Unsere besten Tage)

Serge und Lance erinnern sich an die Zeit, als sie während der COVID-Lockdowns zusammen in Lances Apartment tradeten. Sie betonen, wie wichtig Kameradschaft und der Austausch mit anderen Tradern sind, um Stress abzubauen und sich gegenseitig zu unterstützen.

Wie die Zusammenarbeit mit einem Trading-Psychologen alles veränderte

Serge spricht über seine langjährige Zusammenarbeit mit Dr. Katz, einem Trading-Psychologen. Die Gespräche helfen ihm, ehrlich zu bleiben und Fortschritte zu machen. Nach erfolgreichen Jahren in 2020 und 2021 dachte er 2022 sogar über eine Reduzierung seiner Arbeitszeit nach, merkte aber, dass das Trading ein "Alles-oder-Nichts"-Job ist. Durch die Zusammenarbeit mit Dr. Katz konnte er seine Leistung steigern und ist heute ein besserer Trader als vor fünf Jahren.

Serge's Brot-und-Butter-Trades erklärt

Serge beschreibt seine bevorzugten Trading-Strategien, darunter den "Counter- oder Reversal-Trade" und das Ausnutzen von Nachrichten- und Volumen-basierten Setups. Er erklärt, wie er Bollinger Bänder und gleitende Durchschnitte verwendet, um Ein- und Ausstiegspunkte zu bestimmen. Er gibt Beispiele für Trades mit GPCR und AMD.

Warum einfache Strategien funktionieren (wenn man sie richtig anwendet)

Serge betont, dass einfache Strategien wie das Trading von Wedges und Reversals funktionieren können, wenn sie mit spezifischen Variablen und Nuancen angewendet werden. Er sucht nach Aktien, die stark im Spiel sind, durch Nachrichten neue Preisentdeckungen erfahren und ein hohes Volumen aufweisen. Die Kombination aus fundamentalen und technischen Faktoren ist entscheidend für seinen Erfolg.

Langlebigkeit über Home Runs

Serge betont, dass es beim Trading nicht darum geht, schnellstmöglich viel Geld zu verdienen, sondern um Langlebigkeit. Er rät dazu, sich auf ein gutes Playbook zu konzentrieren und diszipliniert zu arbeiten. Er erinnert an den Ethereum Flash Crash und wie er davon profitierte, indem er einfach zur richtigen Zeit am richtigen Ort war.

Sein Tiefpunkt: Die chinesische Pump-Aktie, die sein Jahr auslöschte

Serge teilt seinen Tiefpunkt, als er in einer chinesischen Pump-Aktie (ZJYL) short war und einen erheblichen Verlust erlitt. Die Aktie stieg manipuliert in die Höhe und löschte einen Großteil seines Jahresgewinns aus. Er nahm sich daraufhin eine Auszeit und erkannte, dass er den Job immer noch liebt.

Sein Höhepunkt und was er im Rückblick am meisten schätzt

Sein Höhepunkt war das Trading im Chicagoer Büro während der COVID-Zeit. Die Zusammenarbeit mit anderen Tradern und die disziplinierte Arbeitsweise veränderten seine Karriere. Lance betont, dass die zwischenmenschlichen Beziehungen und Freundschaften wichtiger sind als das Geld.

Wo Serge's Karriere von hier aus hingeht

Serge sieht seine Karriere positiv und kann sich vorstellen, noch lange zu traden. Er hat ein Gleichgewicht gefunden, bei dem er nicht mehr dem FOMO hinterherjagt und seine Stresslevel reduziert hat. Er rät dazu, sich auf das eigene Spiel zu konzentrieren und von den besten Tradern zu lernen. Lance fasst zusammen, dass es beim Trading darum geht, die richtigen Leute zu finden, Singles zu schlagen und Langlebigkeit zu erreichen.

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0:00 I actually like entered some stock and made money when I was like 12 years old. First time made money. I was like, "This is great." If you really really want to be as profitable as possible, as early as possible, it's counterintuitive, but you actually have to sit on your hands more and just be like way more selective in your in your trade process. >> People underestimate just consistent growth, hitting the singles over time. You just always have these months or weeks where you're just like, "Oh my god, I can't do this." It's just not a race to like make the most money as fast as possible. >> There are a million people out there saying, "Serge, what do you have to tell me?" >> Serge Sushkoff has a one-of-a-kind trading style that has generated $30 million in profits over 15 years of

0:45 trading. We spent over a decade of those years together at Trillium, sharing the trading floor and pushing each other to get better every single day. His approach focuses on elite consistency instead of going for the home runs. And the results speak for themselves. So here are the trades that shaped him, the setbacks that humbled him, and how trading together during the 2020 lockdowns changed everything. So Serge, it's great having you here. One of my best friends in the world. So why don't you tell us how first from being born in Russia, moving to New York City, growing up in Brooklyn, how did you eventually find your way into trading and Trillium? >> Thanks for having me, Lance. Um so actually I remember from an early age I had an interest in markets because um when I was like a teenager it was a

1:30 do-com bubble and I remember my mom actually giving me the keys to like enter a few orders while it was like you know everybody was kind of doing it and I actually like entered some stock and made money when I was like 12 years old and I remember that feeling was like oh this is pretty cool pretty interesting >> pretty easy trading is easy >> pretty Easy. Yeah. First time made money. I was like this is great. And then uh so I then I think I had a path to try to enter the financial markets. So throughout you know in college I went to Babson College um which is like an entrepreneurial and business school and I studied finance and economics. So you know pretty standard path there. But one interesting thing that I did at Babson was I joined the Rottman trading

2:17 competition in Toronto and that really sparked my interest as well. Um that year Babson's team won actually first place. I don't know if they have won since then. So I feel like I contributed something there at least for Babson. Um and um I when I graduated college, it was actually a financial crisis. So um everybody wanted to be an investment banker at that time, but investment banks were not hiring. Uh so I tried to go into equity research. Um and that was actually my first job out of college. Um, and I did that for a year at a family office. And then a friend of mine told me about Trillium and he was hired there and he was a rookie and he was doing well and I decided to give that a try. And so I tried to, you know, follow

3:03 that path. >> And so because you had a friend that had been working there, starting to catch their stride, I guess that's why you felt that, okay, Trillium's a legit firm, they're going to give me the training. You kind of knew the deal and what was going on, right? Like were you scared of failure? Yeah, absolutely. Well, I mean at that time I really had nothing to lose. Again, like there weren't a lot of firms hiring at that time and I did have a little bit of a financial background. Um, but you know, I was like it was either this or like going to the CFA. So, I felt like I didn't have much to lose and I was like, I want to give this a try. It certainly interested me way more than equity research did. >> Yep. And I think one of the paradoxical things which we know very well is while the whole like Wall Street industry was struggling, the big banks were

3:48 struggling. The truth is the prop trading firms are absolutely crushing it, right? Because most traders thrive during volatility, high volume. And so 2008 and the financial crisis was actually like an incredible year for the firm. >> Yeah, absolutely. And you know that's when when I got hired there I started hearing about all the stories and even before so when my friend was telling me about like you know these guys were doing really well during periods of volatility and I was like that's just so interesting. >> Yeah. And so one of the beauty the beautiful things of Trillium is you get assigned direct mentorship. You get assigned a trader to mentor and and train you. And what you ended up doing is you getting you got Jeff Hall one of the most legendary mentors in the firm. So did you know anything about like technical analysis strategies? What was

4:35 that start and how did you start to learn the learn the job? >> I really came in knowing Zero and uh like you said yeah I mean I was very lucky to be paired with Jeff Hall. I mean not only is he like an incredible person but he was such a great mentor and um he really emphasized consistency and just like showing up and working all day every day. Um, and so, you know, I just had to absorb everything. And the first thing I did was really learn his strategies. Um, he was big into trading momentum and earnings. >> Yeah. >> Um, and so, um, I realized like if I just followed in his path, like I probably wouldn't be steered too, you know, too wrong. So, and that kind of started shaping me to just be like,

5:20 okay, what are the best traders doing around me doing well and how can I adapt that to my strategy, my style? >> Yeah. And I think so many people at home in the audience, they're they're really just retail traders and they don't realize the value of being in an environment where it's so many competitive, experienced traders and then you get to learn just directly from them and you're just a vacuum for all these different styles. So you were just following Jeff Hall, which is always probably a good decision. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. >> And so then when did you start to find profitability and what were those like easy kind of easy money trades you started to build up? >> Yeah. So um when I started really I mean um everything was about I would say order flow or inefficiencies in in

6:05 market structure where there would be a sell order that was too big to be filled quickly and it wind up creating a dislocation between price. Um and um it there was a period in 2000 in 2010 um there was like a flash crash and it was like a famous thing where like Kramer was on TV saying like uh you know Proctor and Gamble is down 40%. put me in for 100,000 shares right now. And uh I think uh I started just like six months after that. So that was still fresh in everyone's mind. And that was a big big strategy that I noticed a lot of traders uh getting ready for. So uh that was kind of how I found early profitability. >> Yeah. And so to kind of simplify this for the audience with some of these kind

6:50 of price inefficiencies, what we're talking about as as we know because uh it was just such a pivotable thing for for many of us is if you were to take American Airlines, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, they're three major aircraft carriers for the most part. They're highly correlated. And it would be something to the effect of like, okay, if all of these are up 1%, then you get a sharp move and all of a sudden one of the three is down 3% with no news, assuming all things equal, it's like, okay, maybe it's just somebody selling uh American uh and trying to get out of this. And that inefficiency is is something that that you were seeking to capture. >> Exactly. Yeah, that's a good example. I mean um yeah like anything that should travel together you know and it was creating this like uh inefficiency like

7:37 sometimes I mean you would have literally visible uh blocks of stock available on the book um and that also helped me learn like how to read the box and the level two. >> Yeah. >> Um >> yeah I mean additionally during that time there's still uh no circuit breakers. So I mean you you had the no limit up limit down. So sometimes you would have these biotechs that had uh data coming out either that day or that week and they would sometimes just really puke 30 40 60% uh before the data was released and um >> the good old biotech bear raids were the best. >> Right. Right. So yeah, I mean I I found profitability probably within the first 3 to 6 months and again I was just absorbing as much information as I could

8:23 and I was really going for those like I I consider them like lowrisk high probability trades. And so what enabled you to learn so fast? cuz I think most people will hear that and especially in today's markets and and I mean we're going on 15 years later like to be able to make money consistently in a couple months is going to be so unfathomable to much of the audience. >> Yeah. And I do have to admit I mean I think trading was more inefficient when I started and maybe it's not so possible to do now. Maybe the learning curve just has to have expanded. But I think I mean if you really really want to be you know as profitable as possible as early as possible you actually it's counterintuitive but you actually have to sit on your hands more and just be like way more selective in your in your

9:09 trade process. Um and you really have to have a really tight playbook and only trade when it's in your hit box. Um and that will help you build confidence also. Um, and it's kind of like this like self-fulfilling prophecy that if you take fewer trades, but they're high probability, high consistency trades. Um, and then you can maybe swing for something bigger or something different and use that money you've made to try to learn a new strategy or throw something else into your playbook. >> Yeah. And I think part of why I was so slow on my learning curve is I was trying to just kind of drink from the fire hose and learn all these different things at once. And so the way I describe it is I was like a level two out of 10 at everything which doesn't make you money. And then that feedback loop doesn't exist. You're not getting

9:56 confident. You're not getting any positive feedback. You're not feeling like you're doing anything right or making progress because you're just slowly leveling up everything from a level two to a level three and so on. So I in retrospect, if I could have redone my learning process, I really would have dialed in in one or two playbooks and done exactly what you did. >> Yeah. And I think I mean it's really tempting, I get it, like to like go really big and to just try to level up as fast as possible so you can get bigger and then you know take these huge swings. Um that was maybe just never my personality. Like I I think I really had to understand something deeply and be profitable in it before I could start sizing up. >> Yeah. So the beauty of so many years now just seeing being on the prop side and

10:43 everything else now you're at Chimera and all that and even at Trillin we saw this metamorphosis of even the firm level where things started off being very much orderflow based order flow inefficiencies and stuff like that. Then the firm transitioned towards breaking news and now I feel like the firm's continuing to evolve especially when I was there like people are getting more into some of the price action and the technical patterns. So, how did your trading evolve over the coming years going into 2020? >> Yeah. Well, and this was, you know, a huge change. Like I, you know, you started the Chicago office. Um, and I made like a leap of faith to move from New York to join you in the Chicago office. Um, it was you and a couple buddies that I thought we would create this really awesome pod. And, um,

11:29 honestly, it was, uh, just like learning how to be more exact with my with my data. And and I mean the structure that you created in the Chicago office was really new to me. Um instead of kind of everyone maybe discussing their biggest winners or whatever, it was more you know process based. It was like you know the Sunday sessions, the consistent trade review and more like um a direct database breakdown. You know, I guess now people would consider it back testing, you know, and that's like uh what we really were doing, but we didn't consider it that. It was just like massive review of previous opportunities. >> Yeah. And so then starting to be more systematic with your learning process, starting to optimize that environment. And for the record, like I think people

12:16 sleep so much on sleep on so much how important environment is, right? The difference between retail versus working for a firm. the retail the difference between working for a firm and then being an office that's just like we are going to focus on the process. We are going to work our asses off each day. We are going to communicate. We're going to operate as a team. Like I think that just elevates you so much and that's part of what led to you reaching the real big leagues on some of that. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean upon arriving in Chicago and I mean um working with you and some of the other top guys and and having that environment um really helped me realize like okay I'm I could do all the stuff that I was doing um I could just take it to a much

13:01 much higher level because I understood it that much more deeply. >> And do you think part of that big jump was that just sizing? Was it having the confidence to size? like were you expanding your playbook or was it just okay you have enough experience and you're in an environment where it's like okay we're communicating we're dialed in now you can really push >> yeah I think it was mostly sizing but it was also having that uh floor and that energy and just having more eyes on things and so now instead of having to look for most these opportunities on my own or through whatever filters I was using it was like this constant uh discussion of these are the best things in play And once you know I was on top of everything, then I was really confident sizing up. >> Yeah. And so now that you're you're trading remotely >> Yeah.

13:46 >> off a trading floor now. So what are the best practices you've done to keep that environment and that that feeling going? >> It's been tough. I'll be honest. I mean, um, ideally, you want to trade with a pod. You want to have consistent trade review going on, and you want at least someone helping you keep eyes on things. Um, but right now, I mean, I still communicate with a bunch of a bunch of people. Um, but it's not as good as being in the office. And I know that when I went fully remote and moved cities, it was I was my P&L was not going to be my top priority anymore. And unfortunately, I had to make that that trade-off. >> Yeah. And my personal belief is there will never ever be a better environment than when you are in office surrounded

14:32 with people that are super dialed. like you have more fun, you're more focused, you're working harder, and just that especially on the big opportunities that feeling where everybody knows, oh wow, this might be scary. I might be pushing my comfort level, but this is it. Like, you know, in those moments. >> Yeah, exactly. I mean, once you start seeing something, you know, three, four, five times, you've playooked it, you've written it up, you know, you kind of maybe have some Evernote behind it. Um, you can really get into something for for much bigger size than maybe you were comfortable with. And I'm talking about like 5 to 10x more size potentially. Um, and the only way you get to that level is is by doing this constant review and having other people around you that you

15:18 can share these reviews with. I mean, and >> that's that's a huge game changer. >> Yep. And so during COVID, once the office locked down, everybody went home, we ended up training together from the same apartment, my apartment. >> Yeah. >> And those times training together where it was just the two of us in in the little trading, you know, dungeon. >> Yeah. >> I think people underestimate how big of a difference that makes and just how much fun trading was. Like probably some of the most fun times of my whole trading career was either when all of us were out in the Chicago office just having a great time being best best friends together and then us too just you know just ping around in in my apartment the whole day just working while like you know during this what's

16:03 an awful time for so much of the world we were able to just make our own little bubble and and just lock in and also have fun doing it. you know, we ordered in uh you know, a hundred plus dollars of sushi every day. You know, we had a we had a blast. >> And I mean, look, this job is inherently extremely stressful. So, camaraderie is so important because like you do need to talk about like kind of maybe like what you're going through like how many people in the world like if you're outside of the trading community, who really can you talk to about like maybe a big loss you took or trying to get better? Um it's really difficult. So having a few pals that are traders that you can talk to deeply about some of these things like no one will understand you better. And that's why I think it's like yeah those times were just so epic

16:48 fun. And I mean uh you know maybe you know drinking at 3 p.m. couple beers. >> We're not supposed to talk about that. We we we got to cut out the 3 p.m. rally beers. >> Yeah. Maybe not the best idea but you know worked out. Why don't you tell them about how the 3 p.m. rally beers uh escalated and we we really got ourselves into trouble. >> So, all right. Um Lance had these uh mugs that he would put in the freezer and they were they wind up being these like frosted ice cold mugs and after a stressful day like before the close we were kind of feeling a little exhausted. So, we're like, "Oh, maybe we should have a beer at like 3." >> Everybody was drinking at home by 11. Like, don't act like we're weird. you're weird. >> And and so, you know, uh a beer after a

17:34 few days turned into a beer and a shot or and then into two or three beers and then before you know it, you know, before the close, we're getting kind of hammered. >> Serge Serge ends up like taking some loss on like some imbalance into the close. You just look at me and I just I knew like you were just dead quiet. I'm like, "Uh oh, Serge made an oopsie." And uh and you're like, "Lance, yeah, I don't think we can we we we should be doing that anymore." I'm like, "Okay, okay. Things are getting out of control." The market and that's the lesson, everyone. The market always keeps you in check. >> There's always a gut check coming at some point. Yeah. Yeah. No matter how comfortable you get. >> And so with some of that growth and that expansion and environment, one thing I

18:19 also want to bring up is I put you on with Dr. Catz. You also use him as your training psychologist. So, what were some of the gains you've you've done from that and some of those unlocks you found? >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I've been working with Dr. Katz for like five plus years at this point, which is seems pretty crazy. And I mean, a lot of uh a lot of it is honestly the same conversations over and over, but it just keeps me honest with the the progress I'm trying to make. um you know after you know 2020 2021 which I had some amazing years um I you know 22 I think on across the street was not a good year or I don't know maybe to my strategy it wasn't and so I even kind of thought of like slowing it down going part-time maybe part retiring

19:06 um because we were just like so freaking burnt out after co years uh and so Dr. cats helped me navigate that, you know, he he never gave me like direct advice like you should do this, you should not do this, but we experimented at different things. Like I rented a ski house in Utah for 3 months and lived there and tried to work part-time and be a part-time ski bum. Uh, you know, but one thing I did realize was this job is so like kind of allin or nothing. Um, and when I started working half the hours, I didn't make half the money. I made zero of the money. So, um, yeah, and and you know, I navigated that with Dr. Katz and you know, once I started picking up my pace again, um, it really helped me actually accelerate and I actually think right

19:53 now I'm probably a better trader than I was 5 years ago, >> as you should be. Well, and there's two things I want to bring up to just contextualize for this. I feel like there are probably, you know, you you've had an incredible trading career. Incredible, right? The the 0.01% probably. >> Oh, thanks, man. And um I'm just doing that for for the engagement, the clicks, you know, got and I actually feel that way. >> But um the thing is there probably were I feel like at least if if my memory serves correct, I feel like 20189ish you had like just a slow like just kind of slump in your career where you're like god like you know is this going to am I going to be able to keep growing? Am I going to keep increasing my P&L? Is this worth it? >> Yeah. >> Then even like a more existential one in 2022. And I think like people don't realize that even if you've had an outlier career, you still have these

20:40 extended periods of just man like am I going to be able to grow and adapt? Am I you just started in in you know 2018 you were a senior P&L go down a couple years and you were just like man am I going to be able to sustain this? You didn't know what was around the corner and there's always those moments of doubt. >> Yeah. No, that's a really good point. Um yeah, even like over my long career there I would say you know you you've made this analogy before like you take any decade and there's probably like two phenomenal years, two terrible years, like five years that are mediocre, you know, or in the middle. And um as like you know a young guy like if you're in your 20s or 30s it's hard to conceptualize that that you might have a 2-year slump and um you you just have to

21:26 work through it. And you know one thing Dr. Katz has taught me is like if you were able to do it in the past and with a certain amount of discipline and work ethic and constant review and stuff you should be able to do it again in the future. Like markets change but you will adapt if you have done it successfully in the past. Yep. So, I want you to now walk us through like what what two of your breadand butter trades would be. What what do those look like? How do you find these stocks? What makes them interested in you? Because I think most people really love hearing the details of different strategies of what makes traders great like yourself. >> Sure. Yeah. Okay. I mean, my overall favorite trade is the counter or reversal, let's call it. Okay. Um, so I mean this is kind of an adaptation from

22:12 the order flow that when I started my career where it was like a lot more obvious. It was almost like a a panic or you know um a complete capitulation. Now um things are a lot more difficult and um you know programs kind of understood that you can't just like market sell something. So, I mean, uh, we could take a chart like, uh, GPCR, um, which was a biotech stock that had some data, um, and then, um, you know, I'm going to try to remember this, but, I think it had data at like 8 or 7 a.m. and then, um, it was kind of up a ton at the open um, by by the open and then between 9:30 and 10:30, I think it went up like another 100%. And um so the news

23:00 was I thought you know mostly ready digested and it kind of felt like >> well and you spent one year as an equity research analyst so I feel like you're qualified to to make that judgment. >> I mean knowing nothing about biotech or even what this stock does honestly I don't think I even looked. It was just the way that the news was already out for a couple of hours and then it had just like explosive moves and specifically um I use Ballinger bar bands which is you know something that we worked on together. >> Daddy taught you. >> Yeah. So uh it was extended past its Ballinger band um on two and five minute bars. Um it was doing insane volume relative to its uh average daily volume and specifically those last few bars were increasing in size and the volume was increasing as well. Um so I thought that was a good opportunity to hit the

23:47 sell button and um the my price target usually I use the 10 period moving average and the 20 period moving average. So, typically if I initiate a short um on something that's going parabolic, I like to, you know, get out at a relative high or I like to wait until it comes into that 10 or 20 period moving average as a price target. And I think uh GPCR was actually like picture perfect. It came into that 20 uh 20 period moving average, you know, within like 10 minutes or something like that. Um and we're talking about I don't I mean I don't know how many dollars that was, but I think that was like a 25 point move or something like that. So, what would have been your stop? I assume you're just giving a stop at highs and everything. >> So, yeah, that one um yeah, generally

24:33 you want to give it a little bit of room. Um highs have been a little more you can get wicked out and stuff. So, but yeah, generally I would say highs. Um some I I really like shorting in front of like kind of psychological levels. I think that stock was like at 96 um maybe$100 a $100 level would be a good good stop. and you know riskreward there still you're thinking as much as you know 3 to 5 to one but yeah generally I think um using highs or lows in in that strategy would be appropriate out >> yeah so then what's another example but also maybe different from that of of what you would consider a breadandbut trade for you >> sure yeah um another thing that I think I mean these are these are catalysts that I think everyone looks for is like breaking news and then kind of

25:18 continuation or second moves Um and that can be expressed in earnings or after a direct like piece of breaking news. So one good one was when um AMD received a giant contract um an AI contract from OpenAI and um I think the actual news was at 7 in the morning. So I don't think I was on my keys yet. Um but uh the the stock went up a ton, consolidated uh really really cleanly at highs um within just like a couple points of highs. So I like to kind of draw like a little wedge and if it breaks that wedge with volume um often it makes a second move and um you know the out would be the lower end of that

26:05 range there. >> Yep. So now if I'm hearing this as the audience in a typical retail trader, I'm thinking to myself, but like yeah, none of this sounds that complicated. Like what do you mean you're just trading like a technical wedge? Like like >> I don't get it. What do you mean you're just trading a reversal? And I think I know the answer, but what would you say to this stuff like that? Like what do you mean? Why it's it's just simple like a wedge? >> Yeah. I mean the nuance is I think um like super important news is not frequent um and super heavy volume is not frequent. I mean these setups like they really only happen a couple times a week realistically. Uh and with specific with AMD it was a huge surprise. It was a huge contract like and the really tight consolidation made for really good

26:50 riskreward at highs. Um because you just have so much of Wall Street chasing that stuff. Like analysts are just getting to rerate the stock. Um there's there's a lot of meat on that bone still for extra moves. Um but if um if a stock has a less explosive up move off of a news catalyst, often it doesn't have a second move and sometimes it just like peters out or just uh does doesn't do anything clean. >> Yeah. Um the I mean the other thing is you know tight consolidations are really important. Um this is also true for an earnings earnings report. Um I think I had Amazon listed in one of the slides. Um so again like um a little bit of prep goes a long way. So for that for example I just knew that Amazon uh the whole

27:38 crux of that thesis is AWS right and their server numbers um or sorry their cloud numbers. Um, so, uh, essentially that stock had an amazing AWS result, which I just filtered really quickly in my news filter. Um, so I was able to participate on the first move off of earnings and I felt really confident buying that stock and then it kind of did a similar thing. It just, uh, hung out in your highs. Um, I created a little wedge. Um, and then once it broke that wedge, you know, my opinion was just that this would kind of float into after hours. >> Yeah. And so I think a lot of what we're saying here is, and I say this all the time on on Twitter, on YouTube, on even on my course, like simple systems do work. Simple wedge patterns work, simple

28:25 reversal patterns work, simple continuation patterns work, but the real magic is where you're applying them and the specificity of variables and nuances to that. So to contextualize those all three of those examples, you are finding three stocks that are hyper in play. Two, you know, all three of them actually had a breaking news catalyst that day. Um whether it's it's drug data, whether it's an AMD um AI AI contract and announcement, whether it's it's earnings. So you are finding stocks that are hyperin play >> that have new price discovery due to a headline that have a ton of volume, a ton of emotions. Then not just that, they're doing a very specific technical pattern. And so I think people think like, oh, there's no way just trading

29:10 wedges or this or that could have edge. And it's like, you're right. In a vacuum, it doesn't. If you just trade every wedge you see, but it's then when you stack all these nuances and all these variables together and then really are specific and patient looking for your setup, that's when you've been able to drive such consistency with that specificity. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, um, another thing I wanted to mention that I I think like about longevity on this job in general, it's like it's just not a race to like make the most money as fast as possible. Like I think some people think it is, and I would argue that it doesn't have to be like um just being a trader for a long period of time and being on your keys and having a good playbook that you can

29:56 execute on um can get you just in the right place. a lot of times. I mean, for example, one other thing I wanted to bring up was the Ethereum flash crash um earlier this year, and I think it was October. >> Yeah. Maybe it was like October 7th, uh 2025. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um Oh, yeah. Sorry. Last year. Yeah. Uh but like, you know, just being in your seat for that and just having no direct, you know, crypto exposure. um you can just like you know pick up Ethereum down like 20 25% on the day um for a really nice rebound and and that one you know you want to talk downside order flow like that was a clear extension um overextension perhaps with uh you know total total wash out

30:43 below the Ballinger band um and it it played also perfectly to the bouncing back to the 20 period moving average >> well and it's funny it's like 15 years later and markets are still like yes in some ways they're more efficient some ways they're less but you're still trading the same orderflow inefficiencies of your roots from 15 years ago starting a trillion. >> Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. That's that's a great way to bring it full circle. >> Yeah. And I think like you had said so many people I mean I and I mean sadly I'm probably a part of this is so many people look at myself and they they see the home run hitters and they want to be the big shots. when people underestimate just consistent growth hitting the singles over time and then actually I mean we're both in town right now in Miami for traders for a cause the conference this weekend where there's so

31:28 many traders from all over the world different skill levels and my talk this weekend is going to be how people underestimate how important longevity is rather than going for the home runs because most people you see online going for the home runs they peter out when if you look at anybody's P&L curve. So much of your P&L happened in the last third of your career. Probably probably 80% of your P&L came in the last third because you're growing, growing, growing and things are going exponential. And so many people are so obsessed with must make money today, must you know make million dollars this year. they lose the forest for the trees, which is if I just have a long career, if I have a if you have a decade long career, a 15-year long career, and you're just steadily

32:14 growing, you will be very very happy with where you end up. And I just spoke with a trader last night at at the reception. This trader struggled for eight years. I met him last year in Spain at at a different conference. Everything finally clicked for him eight years later. Now he is pulling in millions of dollars and that just takes so much perseverance. Like I have so much respect for the people that say like look I I'm playing my own game and I'm I know that if I just improve and I stick around for it, it's going to work out. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I also think it gives you a certain amount of like freedom and, you know, maybe brings your stress down from like a 10 to a seven or something like that when you you just are being super selective and you

33:00 really, you know, run your own race, play your own game, and you don't set these, you know, yeah, whatever P&L targets or you don't try to chase somebody, maybe somebody's P&L on social media, um, which, you know, could be, you know, maybe detrimental to your like mental health or to your stability. And then you know if you start having experience a draw down because you FOMO into a trade or something like that um you know that just is a snowball that rolls and if you can just like cut that out I mean it is so valuable. It it literally could be millions of dollars a year just cutting out some of those negative emotions and those like forced rush trades >> or just the quality of your life and your career just cutting out some of that downside tail risk and everything. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's right. So, on that subject, like what have what's been the low of your career and what's the high

33:46 been? >> Okay. Well, I mean, um I'll start with the low cuz, uh that one was like a very obvious one for me. I I was uh I was c caught short this one uh Chinese pump stock. It was the ticker was Zjy L. and it was part of this um collection of Chinese stocks that would have kind of like I don't know really weird volume still pure manipulation. Even Bloomberg's been reporting on this now. It's crazy. >> Um and this has been going on for a couple years now and every now and then they would do this like crazy amount of volume and then they would just like go to zero. Like literally down like 90% plus in a day, right? So I was uh short one of these stocks um thinking it was just going to do its playbook. It was just gonna do a bunch of volume then go to zero. Uh so I think I was short

34:34 something really small honestly like maybe like 2,000 shares from like $13. >> What could you possibly lose? >> Yeah. And I was thinking you know how much could I possibly lose? Well it went limit up from I don't know 13 to 18 or whatever the actual prices are. But um and then it opened at 250. So, um, I did get out there. It, you know, um, and that was, yeah, I think I literally lost like 250 points on on whatever stock I had. >> I had so many friends that got caught up in that and it was just horrific. >> And I think that was in December of 23 if I remember correctly. And 23 was just like I was just starting to get my comeback going. Like 22 was a really tough year. Um, 23 I think I was, you know, doing okay. But that like wiped a

35:22 chunk of my year out and >> and I feel like you were just like, "God, why am I even still doing this crap?" >> Exactly. Exactly. And and because it was just so manipulated and you and and that was like an existential crisis where >> everybody lost faith in you and I'm just like, "Serge, I haven't lost faith in you. You can recover from anything, buddy." >> Yeah. I mean, uh I think actually you were probably the first person I called. >> I think I told you, "Bro, just retire. We'll have more fun together." >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You were like, "Why do you give a shit?" But uh no, I mean >> like sounds like a calm Monday to me. >> So um yeah, I mean but that actually um I did take some time off. I took like maybe you know six or eight weeks off after that. And that just made me realize like hey I really still like this job. I still like markets. Um you

36:07 know this is what I want to do for a foreseeable future. Like I could probably just call it quits but like what else am I going to do? Um, and um, you know, I worked with you, I worked with Dr. Catz, and it was back to my roots. It was like, what are the singles that you can hit to get out of this situation? And work your way back through it slowly. And honestly, before I knew it, I was in a really good groove. And that loss was just, you know, >> just another speed bump. >> Just another speed bump. Yeah. >> I mean, I think every trader across their career, it trading never gets easy. You're never immune to speed bumps. You're never immune to setbacks. And I think that's also just true for life. >> Yeah. So then what was what was your high? >> My high my high was probably trading, you know, in the Chicago office during

36:53 co, you know, specifically it was it elevated my career. I became so much more confident. I mean, just the amazing times we had as friends. Um, and Chicago was, you know, shortlived for me. I think I was only there 3 years but just it just you know changed my whole my whole trajectory of my life. Um being in that office and realizing like what you know discipline, data and hard work kind of get you in this career. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean to quickly do my low and high. I mean I think I had an infinitely rougher start to trading than you. Like I had just so many existential moments of I just don't think I can do this. I just can't figure this out. So, I mean then even the first five years, six years until you really had some

37:40 money saved up, some of those big losses, being the home run hitter, I would take these losses where you're just like, "Oh my god, how long is it going to be until I make money again?" You know, fortunately, that always came back way sooner than I ever imagined. But you just you just always had these months or weeks where just like, "Oh my god, I can't do this." And the funny part for me is, you know, I'm so much more removed from the game than I was doing much more of the content and everything, but if I look back on my trading career, the I can't even remember some of my biggest trades, honestly. Like like 2020 is a blur. 2021 is is a blur. Every year before that was dwarfed by those years and everything else. I've since had even bigger years on my own, but if you ask me to remember the wins, I can't really remember them. What I most take away from, you know,

38:28 over the 10 years together at Trillium is so many of the priceless memories we had, like infinitely more than work and trading. I remember the times of us, you know, crushing the amazing Thai restaurants in New York, playing Smash Brothers together, going to concerts, uh, and just even in Chicago, the the priceless dinners with everyone, the work outings, like all the friendships and us being, you know, in in in my apartment, you know, shoulder-to-shoulder trading together. all those friendships and those memories of like the social side and the interpersonal side was so much more important to me than the money, the trading and the specific work side. And I think I think until you get old enough to have perspective and everything else, you don't realize that because most people are in the industry chasing money

39:15 rather than chasing, you know, the personal growth and the relationships. >> Absolutely, man. Yeah, that's I mean that's what makes it like um Yeah. And you don't have that if you're trading alone. >> Exactly. Exactly. And that's something that I'm truly working on now and, you know, with Traders for a Cause and everything is like trying to find that next pod and that community that I can I can be a part of to, you know, try to level up again, I guess. >> Yeah. So, my my last question for you then is right like I think ultimately 15 plus years that you've been trading, 15 years I've been trading, we are dinosaurs >> for this industry. you have survived by hitting singles, you know, going through adversity now that you've become older, you know, you're you're decently well

40:00 off and everything. Where do you see your career going from here? >> Yeah, it's crazy. You know, if you would have asked me this question in 22, I'd have been like, I have maybe one more year left in me. Now I'm like, I could easily do this for 10 years. I can do this forever. I I think >> because you found the balance. >> Because I think I found the balance where I'm like, I'm not chasing FOMO. my stress levels are reduced. I again like I do have the freedom to run my own race and and play and trade my own playbook. Um and I think that's given me longevity and also um you know just perspective. >> Yeah. And I think that one of the number one things to have longevity is shutting out the external noise, shutting out the comparison game and just saying look I'm

40:45 confident in myself and my trading. I'm just going to play my game. And I think when you're hungry and driven Yeah. there's there's a lot of money out there and you want to expand and grow. But I do think it's totally okay and you know as you evolve as a person and your values evolve to say, "Hey, I don't need to keep on working 60 hours a week, 70 hours a week. I don't need to capture every single playbook out there. I'm cool just playing my game in a way that works for my life now." >> Yeah, absolutely. And look, again, this is not to say that I'm not, you know, still trying to work hard and improve and and do that, you know, 1% better or, you know, constantly try to get make myself a better trader every year. It's just that you do it with your own parameters, you know. Um, and that's I think that's that's healthy.

41:31 >> Well, then any final messages for our audience? >> There are a million people out there saying, "Serge, what do you have to tell me?" I think everyone just needs to be comfortable with what they're comfortable with. Um, don't get ahead of your skis. Um, a lot of a lot of people blow themselves up. Um, and yeah, just just run your own race. Also, learn from the people around you. Learn like who find like the top five best traders that you respect. And I'm not talking about the furus. Um, talking about like actual people that make money and see what you can learn from them and see how you can adapt that into your own playbook. Well, Serge, thank you for over a decade of being one of my best friends, one of the best trading partners, infinite memories and fun times. And now for the audience,

42:16 I hope what you take from Sergey's story is this. We all enter trading with our own experiences and our own background. But it's through finding our pod, finding our people, hitting singles, staying in our own lane, and finding that longevity in this career that sets you up for careers like Surges where you end up making over $30 million in trading profits. You find friends, you find a family, and you find community in this world and this industry. So, thank you so much for listening. Thank you, Serge, for sharing all of our good times over the years at Trillium. And thank you, audience. Drop the comments, you know, hit that subscribe button and let us know if you want Serge back for round two. Thank you. >> Thanks, Lance.

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