Full transcript of “美國救債全球踩雷？關稅再打恐反噬、通膨稀釋恐掀拋售！川普若把債務代價往外推 下一場風暴從哪爆？【#寰宇全視界】20261010-P4 謝忠岳 介文汲 方恩格 王安亞”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.
0:00 Welcome back to the show! They're coming to do a script deduction with you. The current economic problems in the United States It seems like a lot Including US Treasury bonds The debt has already exceeded 40 trillion yuan. Interest alone Now it will cost more than $1.1 trillion. On the other hand, inflation remains severe. Moreover, the Middle East is still fighting. This price crisis is very serious. When will it be resolved? On the other hand American consumer habits They really love spending money. However, the US is a country where one move affects the whole world. Its monetary policy Its trade All of this will affect other countries. Especially in Third World countries What will Trump's future hold in the United States? If he wants to solve The issue of US debt and inflation How to fill the debt hole In addition to the Treasury Department, there is also the Federal Reserve . In addition to the methods currently employed... Is it possible in the future? It's about finding other countries to help it solve the problem.
0:45 We have listed three scripts here. Let me show you The first solution Trump offered was Another aggressive tariff offensive was launched. It is its trading partners that are putting pressure on it. Trade negotiations were held again. It's the same as last year. The situation regarding equivalent tariffs is quite similar. Through tariff bombardment to coerce its allies reigniting the global trade war actually Even if the Democrats take over Congress In fact, Trump himself There are still many legal provisions that can be used. He still has a lot of administrative power. Can be cited This includes the Trade Act of 1974. 102 items 301 items Semiconductors, like the 232 articles that are still undecided. There is also Article 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Many of these are so-called counter-coercion. There is also the Anti-Trade Injustice Act He can take them out and use them himself. To impose tariffs However, doing this Of course, there will be a price to pay.
1:31 A trade war would backfire on the US economy. The impact may be even greater than that of equivalent tariffs. Even more serious The second script B is Trump chose to dilute the debt through inflation. Through this basic logic It means devaluing the US dollar. Let this debt interest It is essentially a reduction. In this case Trump's decision may lead to Allowing prices to rise moderately It's rising, but not too fast. And pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Make the dollar thinner It is about making the debt's intrinsic value Diluted Why do we say this is possible? Because actually Trump He once said a sentence He said there was some degree of inflation. It can quickly repay debts. However, there is a price to pay. US debt refugees These US Treasury bondholders They will suffer huge losses. And a new round of outbreaks is possible.
2:17 This sell-off Part C of the script We want to show you The so-called Trump-style delusions Trump's extreme methods It is coercion by force. Other countries buying US Treasury bonds Or rather, a sell-off to reduce holdings of US Treasury bonds. At this time we saw He will create some geopolitical tensions That is through this geopolitical lever To force Including Japan, Taiwan, or Europe These countries purchased US Treasury bonds Or they coerced you into saying you absolutely cannot sell anymore. That is, to reverse the current supply and demand situation of US Treasury bonds in the long term. Why would this situation be described as possible? Because Trump himself said something like that. He once said The US military intervenes in the debt market. ultimate means When I first started saying it like this Everyone was completely confused. That means you've confused your logic. Or was it a slip of the tongue? It seems to us now Actually, what he said That's roughly the situation.
3:04 However, there is a price to pay. This would completely destroy America's credibility. And US debt from then on It is no longer a risk-free asset. The above three scripts We are now asking experts to help us write it down. Which possibility do you think is likely to occur? And so do our viewers. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section. It is believed that if Trump is pushed to the brink by the US debt crisis... How will he pressure his trading partners? Script A Script B Or script C Using the military to solve the US debt problem Which one might be willing to share with us? Now, let's invite the experts... After you help us write down the answers Simultaneous display of signs First, let's look at Ambassador Jie's perspective. The answer is B. Ross chose A. Anya also chose B. We would first like to ask the Ambassador to explain to us. What exactly does it mean to dilute debt with inflation? Actually, this is theoretically true.
3:49 That means your debt Usually locked is The so-called amount But inflation reduces the purchasing power of money. So what you actually said becomes... You are a debtor It doesn't mean that repaying the money will be relatively difficult. Use cheaper money to pay off old debts So the actual value of the debt It was diluted For example, your current You now, for example Is the interest on your debt... Is the interest rate 5% correct? But inflation is 10%. In fact Your interest rate is only 10%. You are negative 5 -5 Therefore, inflation lowers your real interest rate. It dropped by 100%.
4:35 It dropped to only -5. You were originally a positive 5. You are now at -5. Your burden So-called creditor's rights The debtor's burden Has it been reduced by 10%? So it's equivalent to being a creditor. In fact, subsidizing debtors Therefore, the loss is substantial. The loss would be significant. So it becomes that you need to use one Money that is relatively worthless When going to repay the creditors It is very beneficial to the debtor. So this becomes The principle is very simple. Trump actually wanted to play it this way. Is it right or wrong? Because this money has become worthless. So I gave it to you. I didn't actually lend you the money in the past. When I borrowed money from you Purchasing power of that money
5:20 The value has decreased So this is a That's how it is in theory. On the other hand I think it becomes... Trump has in fact already Regarding allowing prices to rise moderately... He is actually doing it. He did not comment on prices. What are general prices doing? Control measures are being implemented. He only has a stake in his election. For example, he would manage diesel fuel. Because Trump would interpret it as saying These moderate increases have little impact on me. My credit is... I made this pancake very big. For example, how to make a very big pancake? My foreign investments alone amounted to 6.7 trillion.
6:09 Right or wrong in the past? Then he misinterpreted the tariff as well. He said I made a lot of money from tariffs, right? I make so much money from tariffs Customs duties and taxes are not the same. How much money did I make from customs duties? My money How much tax revenue did they earn for us? He used this confusion This misconception To confuse public perception However, I think his kind of Let's talk about the wealthy. He's unlikely to truly understand the lower and middle classes. The problem of that moderate rise He will feel very, very strongly. So he kept talking I made the pie bigger During my term Look how high the US stock market has reached.
6:55 Where does the stock market come from? The stock market is all about investors' money. Is it right or wrong? I drove the stock market so high Then you can see how much interest I received. No, how much tax did I collect? So that's how he sees it. So I think he will continue. Of course, he still hopes for this. Fed continues to cut interest rates Continue to cut interest rates Especially for these Competitive industries in the United States They have enough capital Then go and compete with the world. AI, in particular, needs money. I want to attract more investment. Attract more Because now AI In fact, these major AI companies My own corporate bonds Their corporate bond interest rate has reached 7%. This is not good for them either. So the reason for 7% is because
7:40 You, Fed, got it to over 5%, right? Get higher and higher Therefore, the higher it gets, the better. Therefore, he naturally hopes it will lower interest rates. What's behind the interest rate cut I hope these promising industries People like my good friends All got cheap capital No matter what happens to the US economy Make America Great Again So this is what Trump is thinking. And he is actually doing it. Moreover, the most direct impact of interest rate cuts It means letting inflation grow unchecked. Because he believes inflation is a good thing. To attract more investment to reduce inflation right Okay, so I'd like to ask Ross, what do you think? I believe the trade war is not over yet. Not yet It's not over yet. Therefore, Trump will continue to fight. I think this is the most likely.
8:29 It's not necessarily related to US debt. Trump is looking Have we resolved our trade deficit? Your country has pledged to invest in the United States. Has the money arrived? For example, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan He will watch these things Moreover, these numbers are very easy to understand. Do we still have a trade deficit with you? Has the money arrived? The amount of American goods you buy Have you fulfilled your original promise? Regardless of which trading partner Including China If not, he will activate it again. A new wave of trade war
9:14 Because he really wanted to solve it. He said it really needs to be resolved. The problem of trade deficit Or in the past, the United States had relations with many countries He felt it was a case of unfair trade. For example, they restrict the import of American goods. Restrictions on any industry in the United States Financial industry or other industries Operations etc. So I think he's in the trade war... There are still many things I want to do He's really not done yet. So perhaps it's related to US debt. Related to the US fiscal crisis or inflation But I think he The main reason is that he was watching
10:01 Looking at the issue of trade alone Then he would think I still have a lot to do. So the remaining two years The possibility of a new trade war I really think The probability is very high. The probability is really high. Anya would like to ask a question Because you also chose answer B. Just like Ambassador Jie Actually, Ambassador Jie just mentioned a point. If the United States experiences inflation... Then it's about devaluing the dollar. To dilute debt Actually, these are its overseas creditors. To suffer huge losses In fact, in this situation Because we in Taiwan are part of the United States. 10th overseas creditor We held roughly Nearly $300 billion in US Treasury bonds What do you think of this for us? Will the impact be significant? Continuing from what Ambassador Jie just told Ross... The first B was originally a national policy.
10:46 In other words, the United States wants to globalize the dollar. You need to have US Treasury bonds. Only then will more countries use it. What better alternative is there? that 's RMB It is a regulated currency If we're talking about the euro... It requires 27 countries to make a decision. Next, if it's Japanese Yen The issue of self-confidence That would require currency appreciation and interest rate hikes. Next is to say What's more interesting is the so-called How to get the Fed to cut interest rates during periods of inflation? This requires getting money. Basically you need to counter QE Next, you need to deregulate. You need to let the bank start doing its job. Because now the United States relies on Private Credit is doing things One more, please. What's interesting is that... Developed countries fear deflation. Never afraid of inflation What developing countries fear most is inflation. Instead of deflation
11:32 So, as Ambassador Jie said... Emerging countries are pitiful. It can't emit carbon and it doesn't have AI. They are also responsible for the growth of the world's population. It's quite pitiful. Okay, let's continue. The topic we just discussed It's precisely because of its impact on Taiwan This US debt is very large. After all, Taiwan is on this list. He is the tenth largest holder of US Treasury bonds overseas. The value is probably in holding it. Around 300 billion US dollars We would like to ask Ambassador Jie again. Regarding this question If Trump really is If Plan B continues to be implemented This reduces the purchasing power of the dollar. To solve his US debt problem In fact, Taiwan is a country that holds US Treasury bonds. Our impact will inevitably be significant. What do you think about this? The impact was not significant. Because I just talked about that Most are third-world economies Third World countries Taiwan is a wealthy economy
12:17 Then Taiwan's economy is extremely competitive. you can handle it. The products we sell have no substitutes.
