After Gaza: Muslims in a Post American Order with Wadah Khanfar

0:00 I do believe that the current moment in history we are going through there is a demise of a civilizational cycle which is the western centric one and there is a demise of the international world order at the same time and this is momentous it's going to create unbelievable change Donald Trump is not a cause of this collapse would you agree but Donald Trump is a response to this a manifestation of the collapse itself is manifesting the actual essence of what the apart started the state of Israel is about in a way which doesn't leave doubt in anyone's mind. Our guest this week is Wad Khan, the former director general of Al Jazzer and now head of the Al-Shark Forum who was recognized by foreign policy magazine in 2011

0:45 as one of the world's top 100 thinkers. Wada argues that despite the bleak period we are in, the world is undergoing a seismic shift in global order and Muslims must stop being mere spectators and begin actively shaping this new system. Post October the 7th, the world looked pretty bleak. This current structure will always produce the same problems that we are facing now. But there is another way. The other way is integration. They don't understand the concept collective. We have a collective. We are more connected than they think and welcome back to the thinking Muslim. Thank you for having me. Well, I'm I'm really looking

1:32 forward to today's conversation. Um I think we met a year and a half ago where we spoke about the emerging world order and I really want to build upon that great conversation that we had. It was post October the 7th and uh subhan Allah the world looked pretty bleak. Um it seems to me based on what we discussed that we're not only uh moving into a new era uh an emerging world order is is is developing but also it seems like that uh the Trump presidency is uh an accelerant to a different type of order. And I want to explore that today. I want to explore whether the US term of globalism, this period of globalism is now over. Uh we talked last

2:20 time about how Gaza ex uh expose the hollowess of this international rulesbased order. I want to explore how that uh transpires in the real world. Uh but also of course uh Netanyahu has has created a schism across uh the region has uh conducted multiple wars and bombing campaigns. uh how does that impact uh what we understand to be Muslim world autonomy? So there's a lot to have a conversation about today. I've been reading your book uh the last spring which I think I I I'm not sure if you would describe it like this but it seems to me that it's an expression or an understanding of the s from a political geopolitical perspective. And I've really enjoyed some of the connections you're making and that's probably where I want to start today. um 1450 odd

3:11 years ago um Allah subhana wa ta'ala in the most bleakest moment in Mecca where the Quraysh were uh subjecting the Muslim community to all sorts of persecution Allah subhana wa t'ala sends a message about international politics and world ordering to the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam and the sahaba and you talk about this in your book how does he do that thank you very much so let us start by saying the following the 23 years of the uh prophetic uh action, a prophetic message and mission uh led to the biggest geopolitical shift in the world in history. Mhm. That's how just why

4:03 we will go back and understand why because for 700 years the world had a clear world order between the Persians and the Romans. Now the Romans in many variations you know but and the Persians also in many empires but basically these are the two major powers that control the international system. a bipolar system. A bipolar system which did not allow much to evolve. Now this bipolar system was coming to its end. Why? Not because the Romans were weak or the Persians were weak but because the civilizational cycle came to an end. And this is important to notice and

4:49 I will link it now with the current reality. Now what does it mean? Now any empire it should have moral standards, it should have values, principles in order to justify its presence and in order to be able to connect the citizens together with the sovereignity of the entity itself or or the empire itself. I do believe that the Persian Empire was losing all of the above mentioned for many reasons. I don't think we have the time to go through it. And the Roman Empire was losing. So the cycle of civilization has has been exhausted totally. The values, the ideals, the spiritual

5:37 manifestations in both religious religions from from one side and the other actually we're going through a huge crisis. This is number one. Second, the order itself between the two states or two entities, two empires has consumed the energy of both of them. So we have an end of a civilizational cycle and we have a demise of a world order at the same time. And this is doesn't happen every day in history. It happens only in few moments in history. And I do believe that the current moment in history we are going through resembles that because it there is a demise of a civilizational cycle which is the western centric one and there is a demise of the international

6:27 world order at the same time and this is momentous. It's going to create unbelievable change in everything we know about ourselves and the world. So Allah subhanaa tala when when he revealed the Quran to the prophet it was 610 uh AD for now if you go to Makkah Makkah is a very very small town it has no significance in the world order as far as power is concerned I don't think that the Persians or the Romans did really bother about what's happening in Maria because it is on the French very far from they might have heard about it but it doesn't really matter for any one of them. But what happened when the prophet wasallam was it was 8 years after the beginning of the world order or the world war the international war started 602 between the Persians and the

7:19 Romans. They have been fighting in every front not only in you know in in Anatolia. They have been fighting in Northern Africa. They have been in Armenia, in Anatolia, in Persia, in in in sorry in in the 11th. In the year 614, the Persians were able to conquer Jerusalem. 614, it means 3 years after revelation, 3 to four years after revelation, they conquered Jerusalem. Why that was a significant moment in history? Because Jerusalem was for the Byzantine Empire, a holy city and the source of legitimacy. Because the Orthodox church had that legitimacy versus the Catholic Roman uh western Roman church in because of Jerusalem. So now Jerusalem is overtaken by the Persians.

8:11 Now the Quran reveals to the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam in Medina in Mecca telling him that the Romans have been defeated. That's fact you know in the closest of land to you. What does that mean? Jerusalem closest to at that time and they will be defeat they will be victorious. It means the Romans will be victorious in Arabic goes up to nine years. So what does that mean to the prophet? It means that the world order as we have known it for centuries is collapsing. Now there is a rift there is a crack and if there is a crack I need to be prepared because in it means in a few

8:58 years I need to be able to participate in shaping or reshaping or establishing the new world order. Right? So it is a message from heaven to the prophet telling him be careful what you are going to do now from now until the end of this conf war between the Persians and the Romans is necessary for you to establish the new order and therefore it opened his mind that I need to establish a center of power. I cannot continue to breach the people of Quraysh forever because they're not listening to me. So this is why the hijra came later on and the center of power emerged in Medina and the center of power started to correct the course of events in Medina in unification and aggregation of power and then after that started to project power against the Romans who were the

9:49 victorious in the war not the Persians which is very amazing you know because normally if you want to attack first you attack the Persians because they are weaker. The Persians were defeated in the year 627, you know. Yes. And the prophet did not pick up the Persians to be attacked. He picked up the conquerors, the victorious, and he hit them in Mut then in Tabuk and then in the third one. Three military expeditions were directed against the Bzantian or the Roman forces, not against the Persian forces. Why? Because if you really need to inherit the new order, you need to immediately go against the one who is victorious because he is still recovering.

10:38 You don't want to allow him to recover and be and establish the new order. The defeated is defeated anyway. You can later on go and inherit his land. And this what happened. Bersa was easily I mean conquered much more than than than the Roman territories in in in Palestine and in Syria. So this is important. So the surah or the surah to the ver the verse that you refer to is actually gave the guidance the strategic guidance for a geopolitical confrontation that made the prophet sallallam aware of his his own strategy to inherit the order when it is going to collapse and when the necessities emerge to rebuild it. More than 1 million Afghan refugees are facing an uncertain future. Forced to leave countries they once sought safety in. Now with no resources,

11:28 no shelter, and nowhere to turn, vulnerable families are being deported back to Afghanistan, a country still reeling from instability, insecurity, and limited infrastructure. What awaits them is not a homecoming, but hardship. Beethole Maul is responding on the ground in Afghanistan, mobilizing humanitarian aid such as food and clean water to affected families. This crisis calls for compassion and immediate action. With your support, we can provide life-saving aid and hope to vulnerable Afghan refugees today. Turn your compassion into hope. What? This is extraordinary because when we think about the s and when we read the s we almost uh place the s in an accidental logic. Uh the makkan society they persecute the prophet sallall

12:18 alaihi wasallam. He then looks for a power base and then he finds Medina. And so a lot of it is is determined by persecution and weakness and and and a lack of uh a lack of a base in Mecca. What you're arguing here is that the Allah subhana t has said to the prophet sallall alaihi wasallam there is a world order changing. There is a a new uh configuration that's around the corner. Now you need to prepare yourself to prepare a power base in order to exploit that world order. Am I am I exaggerating the point or is that exactly what you're saying? I have found when I studied the prophet life sallallahu alaihi wasallam from a strategic point of view that there is very clear

13:04 strategy that controlled all his expeditions, alliances uh you know uh military battles uh during the whole time of Medina right it's not clear for for some people they think that the prophetam was sitting in in Medina and the Quray came to attack him then he had to respond to them. But the prophet wasallam from the moment he arrived in Medina he start building strategically foundations for a polity an entity which he called it um you know in order to fill the vacuum that will will soon emerge when Mecca is is conquered. So think about it. Why the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam 6 months after his arrival in Medina he will send a military expedition to

13:54 the coast of the Red Sea in order to interrupt the trade routes of Quraysh with Syria. Why? Because the Quran told him earlier and this is again go back to the guidance. The Quran guidance was very simp and direct about Qur. There is a surah called Quraysh. The surah of Quraysh is telling Muhammad wasallam. Very simple, you know, fact. Quraysh has an it means an alliance with the tribes. Okay. Now, he's directing his his attention to the treaties that Qur has with the with the tribes on the coast. They should worship the lord of this house house who fed them out of hunger. So there

14:47 gave him security. So he told him there are two sources of power for Qur. First the alliance that Quresh has with the tribes which is the it is like it a series of commercial treaties basically. be the house the Kaa these are the two pillars of his strength the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam up to alak the fifth year of hijra he attacked the first pillar which is a trade and he attacked the treaties that they have with the tribes the four tribes on the coast towards Arabia towards Syria between Mecca and Syria the prophet all of them all of them approached them for two

15:33 treaties. So he established al- Medina which means the alliance of Medina versus the alliance of Mecca with the same tribes. Okay. So this is number one and he interrupted their trade. Second, after Al Kandak, he also targeted the other pillar of his strength, which is the custodianship of Alaba by going to Alabia and telling them, listen, I'm coming for Omra. Would you allow me or not? If they allow him, then they are recognizing as a power and force, which they don't want to do. If they refuse, it means they are going to break one of the most sacred elements of their custodialship of Mecca. Because when they talk over Mecca, the promise that we will take care of the Cabba,

16:21 but the Cabba is free for everyone to come and visit. So if you ban him, then the other tribes, they will say, you know, what are you talking about? This is for everyone. How can you ban anyone to come for Hajj or Omrah? If you allow him, you are putting him into a status where he is a force. Many tribes coming together which has never happened in Arabia. So they were stuck. He put them in that position and then he offered them the solution. Not only he offered them the dilemma but he also offered them the solution. He said listen why don't we make a treaty. So the treaty of was a maneuver by the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam in order to make Quraysh aware of the fact that he is now a center of power. He is not just any other entity they can deal with not

17:10 any other tribe or other group of people. So this is strategic. I see the the the elements of it. I see the implementation of it. But the source of it is from Quran. Yes. But the implementation it was amazing. This is why I love what the prophet did. Yes. in all his alliances. It was very strategic. It was very consistent. It has a thread that you can see it always. Yes. So it is not something that we can really just brush as co coincidental or something just happened because of reaction that the prophet got angry because Kuresh attacked him and he had to adapt Qures. No, I mean he had a very clear strategy. On the other side, Quraysh had no strategy. Quresh had only one stupid strategy which is called security attack. M get angry fight and he will drive them into the

17:58 fight. So when people say better happened because Quray attacked the prophet sallallah wasallam in Medina but they don't tell you that the prophet wasallam wanted them to come because before that he attacked all their caravans going to Syria and that's very smart strategically you ask your enemy to come forward and then after that you hit him hard and then bad was a major battle. Why? because it was the first manifestation of a new center of power. You know, it's not anymore these refugees now escaping from Mecca going to Medina. No, they have a very organized army which was able to project power and to win a war. So you have to take them serious. Not only Quraysh,

18:44 every tribe in the surrounding area must take them now from now on serious. This is why after bad he start making all the alliances with the tribes who previously were with Quraysh but now they could see that Quresh is going down and Muhammad camp peace be upon him is going up. So I rather ally myself with the newcomer and the newborn power rather than the decaying old regime. Yes, this is really interesting. I do want to talk about the contemporary world order in a second because I think that's your point. Your point is that uh we can make a a very clear comparison with the moment of the revelation and this emerging change of the world order and today's situation where the world order is changing. So I want to understand that but just to indulge you a little bit more with

19:31 the s and and the conversation about the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam. So I've heard from you before that uh you argue that the um the idea of um community or Muslim um was really established uh when a power base was established in Medina. So prior to Medina there was no concept of an um so I' I've heard you say that um is a geopolitical association that is connected to power. Power is at its root. explain that concept of an um because I think a lot of people will find that a little bit alien because um for us is a spiritual connection with with Muslims around the world. Why why do you emphasize the geopolitical context of um so let us take the roots of the word um how it

20:19 appeared in our lexicon? Yeah. Um the first usage of the concept of um was in the in the charter of Medina in the first year or the first few months like of arrival of the prophetam to Medina after Hijra right so when he arrived I wanted really I was searching what did he call that entity you know some people say the city of Medina the state of Medina the I don't know what is it the prophet didn't use the word estate really no he didn't say dah you know or mla or empire. Yes, he used the word ummah. He said that the people who have signed this constitution because the constitution of Medina which is the charter the people who have signed this constitution are one

21:05 ummah. Okay. So the alliance here is between Muslims and non-Muslims and people who are citizens of the state of Medina which he did not call a state. And I think that word um is the actual description of that entity that was created by the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam himself. That is important. Later on after he passed away the Sahabah did not also call it state you know they call it because they said is a simple word. It means the succession of the prophet wasallam. It means we are succeeding what the prophet has established. And the concept of um became the DNA of that political entity. So it was given that the ummah is that kind of structure formed uh with

21:55 with the guidance of Islam regardless of course of the citizens of the um if they were Muslims or not. Because you must remember that in in Syria, in Iraq and in Egypt, 60 to 70% of the population or more were actually non-Muslims for about two centuries of the Islam after Islamic conquest. So it means that Umah was not entirely an Islamic. It means Muslims. It's not a spiritual bond amongst Muslims. It is beside the fact that it could be a spiritual bond if you like. But the most important element of it, it is actually an architecture that describes a sphere of influence, a sphere of of of

22:41 political and uh power and that what we call um you know. So the manifestation of that over 13th century was a concept of kilafa right because we have never understood how to I mean the concept of nation state is alien to us right because nation state emerged in the west and sent back to us but the concept of ummah is is original it's native into our culture now when the concept of nation state was sent to us after the first world war replacing 13 centuries of consensus political consensus us in a form of or the form of the um then our new uh let us call it total loss of direction started. Yes. Because we don't know now this new entity this new nation state this new

23:34 state which which we inherited uh what kind of of of of bond should it should it have with the rest? Yes. Because if you if you exclude the umah then every nation state becomes individually interested in all its national interest which means there is no bond there is no coordination there is no geopolitical center it means that there's no national interest uh amongst all of them and this is why today we are weak and we will continue to be weak because the architecture itself is wrong and it will always produce weakness if I lived in this political architecture that you're calling an ummah what would be the impact had to my daily life. The first and the most important thing, the citizenship of that architecture is to the meta entity to the um not to the to the Imarat

24:23 to the Imara or to the kingdom that you have been born in. Yeah. Because always I gave the example of a great traveler called Im Bata who traveled in the 13th cent 14 beginning of 13th c 14th century from Tanja in Morocco up to Maldivs and he crossed thousands of miles. He crossed through many entities, political entities and most of these political entities, Muslim entities were fighting against and they're not in alliance with each other. But he as a human being was not classified as someone who is from the city of Morocco or Tanja or a or or a Moroccan guy for example wherever he goes he was treated as a citizen of that entity he is residing in.

25:10 Mhm. So when he arrived in India, the king of India sent him as an ambassador to China. When he arrived in Maldivs, he became a judge in Maldivs. When he arrived in other countries, he became a whatever it is or you know official position. Why? He was educated. No one questioned what is your citizenship. the citizenship as far as you are part of this vast meta structure called um it doesn't matter who controls the territory you came from which king which amir which sultan it doesn't matter so that is number one so it liberated the human being from the hijgemony of the state today we are citizens of the state and the state has the upper hand above us and

25:55 the state has huge power over everything we do. The state could deprive us from our citizenship. The state could reduce our privilege, could confiscate our wealth. But previously we were not part of that kind of political entity. We were part of this great umbrella called the ummah. And no state has the power over us. Ibu Kulun a great scholar for example born in Tunisia but when he went to Damascus he became the chief judge sorry in in Cairo he became the je the chief judge in Cairo and no one said sorry but he's not Egyptian you know why because it doesn't matter the other

26:41 scholars because me and you if you ask for example what is your madhab you might say I'm Hanafi Abu Hanifh does it matter if he was Persian or an Arab. The fact that he's Persian, for example, does it make it for us less convenient to become Hanafis? We never really bother to ask this question, but today he's Iranian. You might not follow an Iranian alim. Maybe Iranians will follow Iranian. Al Bkari came from Usbakistan, but he's not Usbak. I don't even if I did not read about where he was born, I don't really bother where he was born. M he's not an Osbach today within the national concept of Usuzbach nationalism. He is a grand muadith for every one of us to embrace

27:28 and to learn from. So we deprived ourselves from a reservoir of a huge cultural, philosophical and religious knowledge when we start dividing ourselves and then the allegiance of our scholars, the allegiance of our intellectuals, the political elite and and human citizens to the state rather than to this vast meta structure. um what I've um had speakers on my guests on my show and I've challenged them and and asked them to talk about the bleak period we're living in at the moment and many of them respond by saying well we've always had ups and downs we've had the Mongol invasion we've had uh crusaders we've had political problems we've had uh uh lands that have been

28:16 uh taken away from the Muslim and we always come back do you see any tangible difference between the period we're living in now and these uh es and flows within the Muslim um of massive there is no comparison really of course let me just go back to the examples you mentioned so when we had that structure which I called the ummah in a geopolitical sense now let us say the crusaders the crusaders came and they conquered territories in in in Syria and in in Palestine. Okay. Within that period they we had two major states dividing power in the Islamic world. The Abbases in Baghdad and the Fatimites in Cairo. Both of them are fighting against each other. They don't like

29:04 each other. The Fatimites thought at the beginning this is a great opportunity for us to weaken the Abbases. But later on when they really saw what the crusaders are intending to do in that region, they actually invited the Abbasses or the Saljuk of course Nordinki and after that Salah Aub to reside in Kaiu to handle the political system in Kaiu and then to establish a unity between two entities that in politics they were very diverse. Even in Madhab they were very diverse because the Fatimides were Iselis and the Saljis as you know are are are Sunnis and they put everything aside

29:51 and they united together and they attacked us the crusaders and they kicked them out. So the recovery of every crisis including the moguls when they conquered Baghdad and they took over and they made a huge genocide in the Islamic world massive genocide like millions of people lose their lives during the mogul actually they were defeated not by the which was brought down by the Mlukis in in Cairo. So the concept of created a sense of urgency when it comes to invaders from outside and a sense of unification and unity when it comes to defending the the the the the sphere of of geopolitics called Umah. So this is why we did that. Now with the current reality we have nation

30:36 states like for example if something happened in Palestine any state in the region would say okay no we are very sad for what's happening we don't like it but what can we do about it I am going to put the interest of my state above the interest of everyone else so this kind of fragmentation and partition basically you know made this concept of collective security disappear and everyone start to Now okay if you are Jordanian or Lebanese or Syrian or Egyptian the first thing you're going to think about is the national security of Jordan or Lebanon or Egypt then after that you might think of some now this collective concept of security is eroding for the sake of a fragmented concept

31:26 driven by a state and of course the concept of nation state by the way I argue is not easily you know describing the current states in the Arab world because a concept of nation state if you take a nation let us call it let us say Germany Germans nation French are nation and they have their own state they call it nation state but if you take the Arab world 23 states you cannot call each one of them a nation state because the Arabs are a nation but they are divided into 23 states for example so this is an issue Iran is a nation state no doubt about Turkey is a nation state. The Arab world is many states but the concept nation state is not really as descriptive as it's supposed to be because we have some entities which do not have that kind of

32:16 nation in a sense. So we are trying to manufacture a new identity you know for each one of them which we are failing this of course after 100 years now of a new map in the region. I can say the structure inherited to us or forced upon us by the French and the British after the first world war has failed and if something after 100 years does not operate do you expect another 100 years it will be successful? Mhm. So this fragmentation led to civil wars, to sectarian wars, to weakness and to poverty. So I am now easily can say that this experiment over one century has failed and we need to imagine and to think about something else beyond the fragmentation and the partition.

33:06 So are you saying that the reason why we are different, this period is different to all of those periods, those bleak periods in Islamic history, is that the ummah as a concept of power, as a concept of geopolitical power is missing within our mindset. True. Yeah. We don't not only in the mindset, in the reality, it means for example, we have an attempt to establish something the Arab League. It failed dismally. Organization of Islamic conference which became organization of Islamic cooperation. It failed dismally. For example, in the dealing with Palestine right now, OIC and the Arab League issued many statements, established many committees. Nothing happened and their basically performance was you know very weak to a large extent. Why? Because each one of

33:55 them is calculating the individual interest of the state rather than the collective. So there is no collective sense of security at this moment in time. And when you are at thinking as a state of partition, you will not go beyond certain boundaries so you don't upset the Americans or invoke Israeli wrath on upon you or create a troubles for yourself with the western world and therefore you will accept a massacre or a genocide taking place in Gaza and you would say what can I do about it. Not only that, you could be even complicit. You could be you you could even support the Israelis by trade. You could even uh work with them because you want to protect yourself because you would tell me and I heard this from many politicians. Our main target is to

34:43 protect our state. This is the most important. My state is the most important thing. And after that, I will think about everyone else. Yeah. So I want to talk about um the contemporary period and we did discuss uh the shift in the world order but that was pre-Trump. A lot has happened uh with Donald Trump's presidency. So just bring us up to date with what you believe is shifting in this international system and whether you believe that Donald Trump is is in a way an accelerant is he upending this post 1945 order that America created. Yeah. So let me come back to this current system. Compare it to the system that the prophet wasallam did have the opportunity that he had after the world war between the French, the uh Persians and the Romans. Uh so

35:37 think about the current reality. I argue that the current reality has in the same moment uh the end of two systems a civilizational cycle and the world order right which has okay let me explain this the civilization cycle of the west started in 1492 or in whenever everyone could argue whenever but I choose 1492 because this is the year when Columbus arrived into uh in in in Latin America and this is when they brought uguese were able to go around the Islamic world into Asia into India. But from that moment we had many world orders. We had the world order driven by the Spanish or the Portuguese the Portuguese first then the Spanish then after that

36:24 the the Dutch then after that the French and then the British and then the Americans. But all of the above mentioned was within the same civilizational cycle. Yeah. It's all wisdom. Now what was the driving force behind that civilizational rise which in my opinion was impressive to a large extent no doubt about it. I mean technology, art, enlightenment, everything. The core of that was a combination between Protestant culture you know which gave the west capitalism, liberalism and many ideas. the Renaissance one renaissance and also the the the the ideas of of of rule of law

37:11 equality uh uh uh you know and and justice and so on. So the values right now I do see the current reality in the west giving up the two pillars that the western civilization established itself on it. M the religious concept and the spiritual concept in my opinion is the worst ever in the history from the moment that the Roman Empire embraced Christianity. Right? This is number one. Second, the pillars of international law and uh and and and justice and equality have committed a lot of mistakes to it become a joke. You know the west is fighting against international law. Yeah. ICC, ICG when it comes to Israel, they're fighting against it. the concept of equality and justice

37:59 and liberty and so on and so forth is becoming like a very distant memory. Yeah. So when you when your values evaporate it means your civilization itself is is very deeply sick. So this is number one. Now the world orders within the civilization were many. So the cycle of a civilization could take 300 years but the cycle of the world order could take 30 40 50 years. So we have the first world war after the we have a world order after the first world war another world order after that second world order we call it the cold war then we have the postcold war. So we have we had three world orders at least in the one century [ __ ] only but we had many others even in the

38:45 other previous centuries. Now both of them are coming to an end. The civilizational carrier of the order itself is weakened and the order itself is a cracked because there is something called China rising and some people say China is rising. China is not a newcomer to the scene. China is the oldest power that the world oldest organized power you know empire which has 4,000 5,000 years of history and China I mean traditionally used to be the center of trade 30% of the world economy before the 17th century was controlled by China so China is not something just happened to land

39:33 from the moon but China is reclaiming its position in the world order and we have the Americans who represent the last manifestation of the western hegemony are actually very scared to lose their position. Yeah. So they are trying to fight whatever possible war against China economically and maybe in the future even militarily in order to prevent China from regaining its position which the Chinese think that they are entitled to have. So this world order with uniateral power the Americans had is actually now going down and a new thing is going to be established from now until then. We will have a lot of transformation from a civilization point of view. The ideals,

40:22 the values, the culture, the law, the international law is going to be debated, argued about. New ideas should be presented because the previous ones are becoming irrelevant from the concept of world bal balance of power which means the world order. We have to have a lot to go through because if you think about what America is doing now, America is supposed to be the most powerful entity in the world with the most amazing army that the humanity has ever seen, the homo sabians ever seen in their life. But when you start using the tactics that you're using now, which are desperate measures to keep yourself in in place, you are losing a lot. First, the overreach, the American overreach, the American projection of power goes beyond certain

41:09 limits. And when that goes beyond certain limits, it invokes reaction. Second, there is tactical decisions taken rather than, you know, strategic one. For example, when Mr. Trump says to Europe, you need to spend 5% of your budget on arming yourselves. Yes. Okay. So tomorrow after 5 to 10 years when Europe is powerful enough, why they should listen to you? America controlled Europe because America is much more powerful than Europe and Europe was in need for the American power. But if tomorrow France and Germany has the most amazing army, so why they would really follow your instructions when it comes to Russia or it comes to China or anyone else because they will feel powerful enough to act based on their national interest rather than on your guidance

41:57 which has been done so far for a long time. So I think the Americans are losing power and losing alliances. They are losing Japan which is amazing. I mean Japan has been always like you know after the second world war an a great ally but now when you push China to take a position sorry Japan to take a position on China in the future if we are going to fight with China are you siding with us or against us you are putting them in a position where they are going really to think of other options you are pushing all Asian countries to you know feel that you are burden on them. Yeah, because Asia has its own logic. Asia knows China for thousands of years. They know they lived with China. They know exactly what China is. They know the danger of Chinese manifestation of power and

42:46 they know the benefits of Chinese economic race and they have reached some form of agreement with China through between Assan and China and so on and so forth. Now you are forcing countries like Philippine and others to take stance on South China Sea. while you are trying to push China out of its own sphere of influence. So imagine if you tomorrow China start establishing an island opposite to New York 60 70 kilometers from New York and put its own power there would America would will America be tolerant to that? Americans were not tolerant to the Soviet Union to send the missiles to Cuba. Yes. And that became put the world on a on a on a fringe of a nuclear war. So

43:35 why you the Americans are coming to my territory to my land and you are establishing your power and sending your submarines and establishing your military alliances like Aquas with with with with the Australians and the British to to to to contain me. And then you expect me to be as polite as saying to you, you are most welcome. I am going to give up my sovereignity for the sake of you being happy. Of course, the Chinese have to arm themselves to prepare for war and to build their armies and to think that okay, we believe that the Americans are going crazy and we have to protect ourselves. So this is why we are heading towards you know this psychological concept of

44:22 me losing power is putting the Americans in a in in in a position where they are losing their mind and they are going in a way where they elected Trump number one and second they are implementing policies which are not at least for many people understood as a mechanism of stabilization. mechanism of disturbance, unpredictability and chaos. And this is not a behavior of of of a the biggest state in the world. This is a behavior of someone who has gone psychologically destabilized. So I find this really interesting. So your your argument is there's a dual collapse. It's not just a collapse of an international system. It's a collapse of a civil civilizational order.

45:10 And that very rarely happens where you have this sort of conflation of two major collapses in the world. So in that sense Donald Trump is not a cause of this collapse. Would you agree? But Donald Trump is a response to this collapse. A manifestation of the collapse itself. I mean you know I mean imagine one day if you think about America think about Roosevelt. Yes. Think about Eisenhower. Think about Kennedy. These are I mean people who now distant memory. Yes. Think about the political elite in the west. Think about Churchill and the current prime minister. Think about de Gaul and the current president in France. I mean, so the political elite right now in the west is the weakest in generations. Yeah. So this is another manifestation that not only in

45:58 America in most of the western countries we are seeing deterioration of political strategies of grand strategies of ability to understand through statesmen not politicians through long-term thinking not immediacy you know these people are tacticians and they fail in the tactic. Yeah. How would you interpret the current war against Russia for example unless if it is a misjudgment a decay of political elite you know it's unbelievable they follow the American foot you know footsteps in a war which it has no meaning for the Europe you know so in my opinion yes the civilizational decline is actually leading to this current manifestation of

46:47 weakness of leaders and it will lead to much worse it will lead to rise of nationalism, xenophobia. Um they need to define a new enemies always you know the west needs an enemy the other you know sometimes the Muslims could be the others sometimes others I mean Hispanics or whatever it is. So this civilizational cycle will continue to produce crisises not solutions. So if you think that tomorrow after Trump everything is going to be peaceful and America will regain I don't think so. Yeah. Whoever is coming after Trump, he might do things which definitely going to lead to deterioration of the world order until a new world order is established, a new balance of power is born. Can you talk to uh this trend of make America great again,

47:37 the America firsters? How does that feed into this dual logic, this dual decline? Um uh there is a a tendency now in America to resolve from the world. uh there is this tension between the globalists, the neoconservatives, the liberal interventionists on the one hand and the MAGA uh individuals, the supporters of an America first policy. How does that feed into your into your conversation here? So the hedgeimon the first hedgeimon is America and and any hedgeim in the world doesn't want to compromise their post for someone else. Yeah. So the other hedgeimon is China is trying to come up. Russia of course which is very far from that but eventually Russia is there. So now there the

48:24 liberals or let us call them the Democrats and the Republicans in America. Yeah. They have one goal which is to contain China and to stop the rise of China and to sustain the American presence. Yeah. The manifestation during Biden administration was very clear towards China because Biden also went economically the economic world you know during Biden it was very clear against China. Now Trump came the way Trump is manifesting that same strategy is in a very populist way which would make America great again make all these big fasts and many but the essence of the policy the essence of the strategy is one so in my opinion the state in America has decided its course of events events and the way that Trump is doing it because he has his own

49:15 style but he is not going beyond the strategic direction that the state itself has has decided before Trump. But the manifestation was much more much more diplomatic maybe. Now it is much more blunt. And this is the same happening in Israel by the way by Netanyahu. NATO is manifesting the actual essence of what the aparted state of Israel is about in a way which doesn't leave doubt in anyone's mind. Yeah. About how evil the aparted state is. Before they would have been telling us in a very diplomatic way, we are the only democratic state in an ocean of dictatorships.

50:02 We are the country which is seeking peace and establishing economic order in the region for everyone to be happy. All these kind of themes now are distant memories because we see bluntly what kind of crimes and genocides Israel could do and going unleashed to to hit everyone. So this is a spirit of an age. This is what I want to say. Yeah. What we are seeing in America and Isra that there is a fear that the because you should remember that Isra. It was created after the second world war. The rise of the west as a dominant force and the rise of the Americans and it was supported and kept you know strong because of the American

50:50 interference up to the last war with Iran where if the Americans did not support it would have been impossible for them to continue with ammunition and with with every with intelligence and so on. So if the world order is shifting would you feel comfortable as an Israeli to think that you are going to be secure. So also you are losing you know compass you are you are going beyond rational okay conventional wisdom let us call it if if there used to be you know convention or deceptive mechanisms into much more blunt much more you know clear manifestation of power which will invoke you know the the most supporters of Israel will feel

51:37 embarrassed about what Israel is doing. So this is the logic of time, the logic of the transformation in the order itself. Yeah, I want to come back to Israel in a second. U but just on the China point because just to complete that conversation, um there was a book that did its round did the rounds a few years back in in Washington, the fusidities trap by Graeme Allison and uh uh I think the the subtitle was is war between China and America inevitable. Do you think war between China and America is inevitable? So let us do it do it like this. Now China definitely does not want war because China is not imperialist in its nature and they don't think that they need to colonize the world as the French and British Americans did in the past. Yeah. So what they

52:24 need to do they need trade routes they have a strategy very clear built uh road and built and so on. Now what the Americans are doing, the Americans are trying to interrupt the system by putting tariffs on every country and judging everyone based on their relationship with China, trying to reduce the amount of China's production to the world and trade with with America. And then much worse than that, they playing a very dangerous game on Taiwan. Now for the Americans, Taiwan is a cart. Yes. But for the Chinese, Taiwan is something which cannot be negotiated. I'm not speaking about Xiinping and the current Chinese administration. I'm talking about every leader

53:11 that became the leader of China since Ma Son until today. They put Taiwan as the most important element in their fore. They don't think about it as a negotiating position. Now on Taiwan story, uh the Americans are trying their best to they after another increase their cooperation with with Taiwan. They have their own interest maybe with this, you know, nanotechnology and so on. It's fine. But I don't think that's it. I don't think because of the companies of microchips that America is only trying to keep ch Taiwan. I think they are using it against China. Yeah. As a negotiating uh leverage or maybe even the future a sort of security threat against China.

54:03 So beside that they are using the islands in the in the in Japanese some of the Japanese island. They are putting their nuclear submarines. They are putting their weapons in Korea, South Korea. So they are developing an alliance between South Korea and and and Japan in order to sit together which is very rare to happen because historically they are rivals. So they are doing aquas as you know. So if you are Chinese and you think about it where this is heading am I going to keep silent until the end of time. So when I see that the American Pacific Command is putting plan after another in case of war what I should do with the Chinese nuclear submarines or the Chinese

54:48 nuclear missiles. If a plan like that is put it means when the plan is there the possibility of being implemented is there as well. Now in in geopolitics you do not act based on on good intention. You always think the worst scenario and the worst case scenario for China that they could be attacked and they could be deprived from their nuclear weapons because China nuclear weapons is the weakness. I mean they have their nuclear weapons and they put it on it on on on rails that they hide inside tunnels but the they could be attacked and destroyed or at least prevented from action. This is why now their strategy is to put these nuclear weapons on submarines and

55:36 the submarines could fire from the sea and they could hide and live for months and years under the water and the Chinese and the Americans are sending drones to scan the oceans and to find where the submarines are hiding. So all of that is happening today. So yes, is are we going to see a war? If if I'm going to bit, I would say yes. But what kind of war and how and when? That will depend on many factors. The Americans might think that if we keep China moving as it is until it is officially armed properly and China by the way is arming itself very quick and they're they are excellent in manufacturing their own you know the jet fighters and their own ships and so on.

56:25 uh if am I going to wait for them until they are powerful enough that we cannot defeat them or we should do something before that that's a scary decision now technically speaking I am worried about that it might not happen now or tomorrow or after a few years but the course of event that we see as you said this kind of of of of dilemma between me trying to prevent someone else from taking over and the thinking that I will be attacked first so I need to prepare myself. It might lead one day into something which we don't know what. I mean who would said who would have said I mean everyone in you that the world first world order will happen the first world or war will happen. Everyone everyone in you before the assassination of the Duke in in

57:18 in Ferdinand. Yeah. Ferdinand. So but that was the moment when the war started but before that everyone is preparing for war. If you ask people say yeah war is coming but when and how we don't know. So I'm afraid that some moments might come when either through misjudgment or over reaction could lead to a confrontation. We were talking about Israel and its interests in the region and and what its core interest is. Um I'm struck by the ideas of John Mshimer who's very problematic in in so many ways but John Mshimer talks about offensive realism the idea that uh in order to project power you need to have complete dominance uh in a region and do you believe that America one

58:11 of the reasons why Israel exists in the Middle East is to be the hedgeman and to prevent the rise of a a authentic Muslim Muslim hedgemen in the region. So let us put it like this. Now the NATO has been saying to the world that I'm going to have a new Middle East. I laugh about this. Why? You know this word new Middle East. I heard it year after another by many people. Yeah. The West every few days they come up with a new map for the Middle East. New Middle East and new I don't know imagination about the Middle East. This Middle East is thousands of years old. Yeah. This Middle East is unpredictable. And if Isra thinks that they can re-engineer the

58:59 Middle East the way that they would like it to be engineered, they are mistaken. They are projecting power in a way which can never be supported by any mechanism to change reality on the grounds. Why? Because what the new order let us call it like that that the Israelis will establish in the region is offering what values if you are going to have a order at least you have to offer people something you are offering people partition civil wars confrontation and weakening them. Israel has an existential fear you know and they think every actor in the region every state in the region if it is not today it might be tomorrow or after 10 years might pose a threat. So what is the right strategy in this case? Make this region busy in small wars amongst each other fragmentation and

59:51 partition and make them less powerful than you. you must be much more powerful than all of them combined and poorer than you. So this is why they needed a monopoly on nuclear, right? Why you need a monopoly on nuclear power? Simply because in the mindset of a general fighting a war from Israel, okay, Iran has missiles, Turkey has drones, but I have nuclear weapon. If the worst come to worse and I'm going to confront you know many actors in the region and I'm going to lose I will rather threaten using the nuclear weapon or I will lose tactical or even strategic nuclear power. In this case, you have already gained an edge above others. You feel more secure. If

1:00:40 someone like Iran or anyone, it doesn't matter by the way, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, anyone decides to go into a program of nuclear enrichment, they will be targeted by the Israelis because Israel has to keep the monopoly over nuclear in order to feel secure. Yeah. So what we are in front of what now? We are in front of country is not only genociding the Palestinians and ethnically cleansing them but also infringing on everyone's sovereignity in the region. So I'm attacking Iran not because Iran supported Palestine because Iran is trying to enrich uranium. So now it is not about Palestine. It's about Iran and Iran future. I am attacking Syria

1:01:26 not because Syria today is doing anything against the Israelis. Actually, the leaders of Syria many times said that we are not going to be a threat against Israel or a source of of of a threat against Israel. But the Israelis would like to see Syria dismantled and Syria fragmented. Why? Because they don't think about the current leadership. They think about 10, 15, 20 years to come and Syria needs to be weakened further. They think about Turkey and the power of Turkey. So, I need to establish for them an issue called the Kurdish problem in northern Syria. So it could weaken the state of Turkey. I think of Pakistan which has another deterrence called the nuclear weapon and that should be also in the radar of the Israeli action in the future. So Israel is going

1:02:11 to be a problem for every state in the region even the states who signed agreements with them. So Israel is turning itself from being an enemy in the region because of the Palestinian issue and whatever they're doing against Palestinians into an enemy because of their threat against the national security of individual states in the region. So that is what Netanyahu basically has done. In my opinion, this will trigger another reaction from other states the next few years. We have to monitor how this region is going to react to this Israeli hedgemony because no one is going to accept it. You know, even if some people sign a treaties called Abrahamic Accords and all this, this is going to be the surface of it. But deep down the state of Israel, the Zionist entity has

1:03:02 created in the region a rift that cannot be redeemed by rhetoric or by Nobel Prize or by Abrahamic Accords or by magnificent press conferences. This is much more deep. What happened in Gaza and happened by the Israelis against everyone else in the region is a turning point. I don't think it is a moment where we can see likely. It is very significant and very strategic. So let's circle back to where we started. Uh we have a seismic shift coming in the world order. We have a regional hedgeman or at least a a hedgeim a country that wants to be a regional hedgeman as in Israel uh that is now um without any cover. It is now engaging in naked power grabs in the Middle

1:03:50 East and fragmenting uh these countries. You said it earlier on that the prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam was preparing for umah power preparing for umatic power let's call it um how do we today prepare for that power so there are three things the prophet sallallam said did which I think still valid for us because I do always see the s is not history only it's not a series of historical sequences the s is an elevated reality in order for you and me to to look at it as a model and this is important it happened in history but it is it is a role model that's important so now what the prophetam did there are three steps which I think every one should planning for any

1:04:40 strategy should take into consideration number one clarity of vision kalas the prophetam understood his mission is he is a prophet and therefore There was no compromise on the on that mission. The the the the Quraysh tried to make a lot of compromises, but he refused. Finished. I'm not going to worship what you worship. You will not worship what I worship. There is no way that a compromise in vision could happen. So you need to have that. And that vision should sink deep down in everyone's heart to an extent that it is given. It is your DNA. it cannot be replaced. It cannot be you know declining. So the second one after that he moved into something else where he

1:05:29 established strategic direction. So he told the his companions my strategic direction I'm not going to eradicate my enemies. So you know so this is why for example when the angel asked him should I destroy the people of Quray he said no because in the future some of their offspring will come out and worship God. So basically his concept of change was not elimination was not genocidal you know he fought against it actually he refused to kill the people of Quraysh when he conquered Quresh so strategically he put some mindset for his followers where they should follow in order to change he introduced instead of the concept of conflict he introduced a concept of tadaf tadaf it

1:06:17 means I will expand in the vacuum and I will push my interest and the collective interest forward without elimination and without eradication. This is why the conquest the fat the word fat is not incubation never been incubation. When you conquered Mecca supposedly you bring alien uh your guys to rule Mecca but you you you stole the leadership of Mecca to run the affairs of Mecca. So previously they just a few days ago they were enemies but today now they are converting and they are becoming the rulers of themselves. When we the Muslims conquered Syria and Iraq and the rest of the and Egypt and so on we did not install in these countries you know people coming from no we

1:07:05 gave people the power and that was important for for for the concept of concuss. So that is very strategic direction. This is one principle but I think they have I have 10 points which I published in my book about what are the strategic you know guidelines that the prophet put in converting the vision into the third level and the third level is the imagination of the future. M you need to tell the people how the world will look like if you follow the direction because one of the problems of a lot of great you know thinkers and leaders they think they criticize they analyze they contextualize but they don't describe the future once you describe the future and you describe it not in a theoretical way but you tell the people I will guide you through so you may g a gain one two

1:07:58 Yeah. And that the prophet wasallam was very clear in his discourse. So while he is building his his executing his strategy, he is conceptually giving the people of the imagination of how the future will look like. Yeah. And that happened. So think about our reality. Now in my opinion the first strategy which I argue is the Islamic world especially this region that in the center should start thinking instead of partition should start thinking of aggregating power should start thinking of not necessarily unity but at least aggregating the power in a sense of getting states and entities to work together like a European Union European Union Assan is a great example as

1:08:48 well. Different mechanism but it's also beautiful. So these kind of things I I'm not arguing that we need to destroy nation states in the Arab world or the Islamic world and eliminate them. I'm arguing that we need to bring the cooperation into a strategic level where economically infrastructure human uh interaction uh is going to be much more much more open and that will create trigger a new course of event because from my reading in history there are two trends in history that affected the 13th century of Islamic power. Yeah, the trend of partition and and and fragmentation always leads to civil wars and always leads to weakness and poverty. And another trend of unification

1:09:39 leads to power and leads to you know sufficient dignified life for for citizens. Uh and I'm not speaking about unity. I'm speaking about the path to unity. Once you start acting, thinking, filtering your behavior based on the concept that I want people to come to me, I don't want people to to fight against each other, then sectarianism will decline immediately because it contradicts this strategy. Civil wars and the tribal wars will decline because it contradicts the strategy. But if the elite is narrow-minded and they see the small fights as a grand ones, then fragmentation is going to be the way forward, which means weakness, which means boverty as well. Isn't the real problem though those elites um you know to to be able to pull sovereignty together to create an

1:10:30 Asan style of of uh of union or a European Union, you need to have the buying of these elites. But these elites are deeply entrenched in their divisions. They're deeply entrenched in the nation states. Uh they follow the American line in a way by uh pursuing a a policy of of uh of conflict and fragmentation. Uh isn't there a problem with this idea with this blueprint as long as these elites remain as they are? This is why we need not to trust the elite political elite on the future. really I think the future is much more important for us to give politicians the upper hand in it. What we should do the forces of the society like intellectuals, the intelligencia, the the the the

1:11:16 civil society groups uh people who are uh active in in in the in various levels of of social and cultural and political uh you know communities. They should start imagining that kind of future

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