Brief Summary
This video discusses a dire prediction made in 1972 by MIT researchers regarding the limits to growth and the potential for a catastrophic population die-off due to resource depletion. While technological advancements temporarily averted the predicted crisis, the core issue of reservoir depletion remains. The video explains why this prediction was largely ignored due to limitations in human learning processes, particularly experiential and transmission learning. It advocates for a third learning process based on understanding the flow of mass and energy to infer future events. The video concludes with a stark warning: if energy delivery tasks consume all extracted oil before it reaches agriculture, a massive population decline is inevitable, potentially leading to the death of billions within the century.
- The 1972 MIT study predicted resource depletion leading to a population die-off.
- Technological advancements temporarily masked the problem.
- Human learning limitations hindered the acceptance of the prediction.
- Understanding energy and mass flows is crucial for predicting future events.
- A potential catastrophic population decline is possible if energy resources are exhausted.
The video starts with an analogy of a car running out of gas in the desert, which represents the potential fate of global civilization if it depletes its fossil fuel resources. In 1972, an MIT group identified this "running out of gas" event in their data, represented by a red line indicating resource availability. The black line shows the global population's response, initially rising but then declining as resources diminish, potentially leading to 5 billion deaths by 2100.
The MIT group initially hesitated to report the die-off event due to its distant timeline and the novelty of system dynamics. They focused on food and industrial output per capita, which the simulation showed would stop growing. Their book, "The Limits to Growth," faced criticism, with many believing that technological advancements would prevent these limits. For 50 years, this criticism seemed valid as well-being and population grew beyond the simulation's predictions, thanks to the Green Revolution and advanced energy extraction techniques.
Despite the initial inaccuracies in timing, the simulation's core suggestion of a die-off due to reservoir depletion remained relevant. This prediction was largely ignored, possibly due to flaws in human information processing. People primarily learn from experience, but the die-off event was both unprecedented and far in the future, making experiential learning ineffective in influencing behavior to avoid it.
Transmission learning, where experts convey their views, is also insufficient. Historical information lacks examples of die-offs from energy depletion, and differing expert opinions create confusion. The MIT simulation's die-off suggestion couldn't be validated through transmission learning because there was no consensus or clear way for listeners to determine which expert to believe.
To validate the MIT simulation, the video proposes a third learning process based on understanding the flow of mass and energy. Simple examples illustrate how flows predict future events without direct experience: more flow equals more well-being, an empty tank predicts no flow, and machines wearing out necessitate replacement. These principles can be applied to understand the future of civilizations.
The video explains how civilization relies on energy flows. Sunlight supports subsistence farming for 600 million people, while fossil fuels power electric plants and internal combustion engines, enabling manufacturing and food production for 8 billion. Manufacturing also creates machines for mining, refining, and pumping, which extract more resources. A portion of the total energy is invested back into the infrastructure, sustaining the system.
The system functions until reservoirs become too dilute, hindering pumping and refining. Fuel storage empties, power plants and engines stop, manufacturing ceases, and energy capture declines. If fusion or dark energy cannot replace lost energy, the Earth can only support 600 million people. This occurs when energy delivery consumes all extracted oil before it reaches agriculture.
If this scenario unfolds within the next 80 years, the current global population of 8 billion must decline to 600 million. Considering the estimated 8 billion people born in the next 80 years, a total of 16 billion people will live during this century. Subtracting the 2 billion who die of old age leaves 14 billion. If energy flows in 2100 can only feed 600 million, the remaining 13.4 billion will die from starvation or conflict over food, affecting almost everyone alive this century.
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Transcript
Full transcript of “Civilization's Running out of gas Story (beta5.0)”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.
0:08 [Music] most drivers can imagine that when a car runs out of gas it stops however few drivers can imagine that when running out of gas happens in a desert with no chance of help everyone in the car perishes this car in the desert tragedy may be a correct description for our Global civilization if it runs out of fossil fuels in 1972 a group at MIT discovered such a running out of gas event in their data this red line can be thought of as civilization gas gauge it
0:55 shows the amount of resources remaining in the Earth's crust full in 1900 85% full in 1972 and empty at the bottom of the graph this black line shows how global population responded to high resource delivery first Rising toward 6 billion in 2050 and then with declining resources descending toward 3 billion by 2100 including bursts running out of gas costs five billion deaths because this die off happen so far in the future and the system's
1:40 Dynamic technique was still under development it seemed too bold to report so they focused the report on two of civilization's well-being indicators food per capita green and Industrial per capita gold to everyone's surprise the simulation suggested that both stop growing here they titled the book the limits to growth and the contrarian views Sold 5 million copies in 30 languages their book faced extreme criticism that advancing technology would prevent these limits and for 50 years the criticism
2:28 was correct actual well-being on Earth grew faster and to higher levels than they reported population grew to 8 billion two billion more and 20 years sooner than in their simulation this super growth was made possible by the green revolution's ability to Triple food production and that wasn't included in their simulation and Technology's ability to extract ener energy from deeper wells Wells and deeper water horizontal and Frack Wells and tar Sands these Earth's extra gas tanks hadn't been
3:13 included however this super growth did not nullify the simulation's suggestion that Reservoir depletion would kill 5 billion people why was this important part of the simulation suggestions almost universally ignored maybe it was due to a defect in how humans gather and process available information people learn mostly from experience since the suggestions made by the simulation especially the die off event had not happened in the past and was not projected to occur for 50 years in the future experiential learning
3:59 could not give these suggestions influence in the choice of behavior in 1972 that would avoid the suggested 5 billion deaths that learning would have to be accomplished using another process the second most common learning process is transmission it occurs when experts convey their view of the future to the learner let me suggest why transmission learning is too weak to facilitate a clear enough view of a die off event to let the learner take a painful Behavior to avoid it when an expert uses historical information the image he transmits contains no die off
4:44 from energy depletion when the un's population Productions are based on fertility Trends they contain no die off event when experts present different views they place the listener in a position of choosing which expert to believe most often the listener has no process for determining which expert to believe thus the MIT simulation die off suggestion could not be validated with transmission learning to validate the MIT simulation suggestions people would have to use a third learning process one that uses the flow of mass and energy through a
5:30 simulations tanks and pipes to infer unexperienced events let me describe some simple examples where flows affect future events or events affect flows more flow predicts more well-being no experience necessary no flow predicts no well-being no experience necessary empty tank predicts no flow no experience necessary empty tank predicts no well-being no experience necessary machines wear out predicts replacement no experience necessary replacement predicts more
6:16 manufacturing which predicts more mining pumping transport and infrastructure maintenance no experience necessary these simple examples of tanks and flows making predictions without experience can be extended to infer future conditions of civilizations for example sunlight flowing onto all possible subsistence farming locations on Earth will feed 600 million people electric power plants and internal combustion engines are powered by flows of coal oil and gas they produce power that flows to man manufacturing manufacturing flows
7:02 machines to farms and the flows of power to these machines produce a flow of food to feed 8 billion people manufacturing can also create flows of machines that perform mining refining and pumping and when the energy flows to these machines fossil reservoirs flow coal oil and gas into storage when more energy flows to mining machines materials can be extracted from the crust and they flow to manufacturing with these additional materials manufacturing can build energy capture devices dams wind turbines solar
7:49 collectors and fision reactors and these flow 2% of total energy used to produce food into the infrastructure the whole system keeps flowing until reservoirs become to dilute then pumping and refining struggle fuel storage empties power plants stop internal combustion engines stop manufacturing stops Hydro solar and wind machines wear out energy captur stops energy to agriculture stops and food delivery stop if Fusion or dark energy cannot replace lost energy deliveries the Earth again
8:36 produces only enough food to feed 600 million people when will this happen it happens when delivery tasks consume all of the extracted oil before any gets to the Tractor if this happens in the next 80 years today's 8 billion global population must decline to 600 million what could make that possible assume 8 billion people are living today and an estimated 8 billion born in the next 80 years 16 billion people lived during this Century subtract the two billion who
9:22 died of old age in the next few decades 14 billion lived and did not die of old age now if in 2100 energy flows can feed only 600 million then this 13.4 billion people Miss die from either starvation or fighting over food that's almost everyone who lives this century and now you know civilizations running out of gas [Music] story [Music]
10:23 oh
