Der August wird brutal – bist du bereit? | Marktupdate mit Florian

0:00 What kind of week have we just had on the financial markets? News about news. It went up and down. And the big question now, of course, is the bull market over? Are we going to see a big crash or a big correction here? The fear and volatility are back. We talked about how historically August is always a good month for volatility, but a bad month for prices, and it took exactly 24 hours and we were already in the middle of it. We've seen the biggest volatility spike since April, and I think we've marked an interim high in the S&P 500 and Nasch, and thus in the broader stock market, this week. It all started with Jeron Paul and the FC

0:45 meeting on Wednesday, where Paul was rather hesitant and didn't give any indication of cutting interest rates in September. Just a few hours later, Mega Earnings came from Microsoft, Meta and several other tech companies. Meters were up 10% in some cases, which pushed prices up again. In retrospect, however, it seems to have been a kind of blow-off point , at least a short-term one, because we were unable to maintain the price gains. Already on Thursday, the prices turned negative, and on Friday they finally went downhill after significantly worse-than- expected labor market figures came out . Trump has again turned the dial on the White House . Switzerland, among others, 39%, I believe there were some in our neighboring country too , the child stores fell to the ground

1:34 and suddenly all the profits of the last few days or even the last two weeks were gone. And now the exciting question is, what does that mean? Is this really the start of a larger and longer correction, perhaps even a crash lasting several months, or is it actually an opportunity to buy more? That’s exactly what we want to take a closer look at in today’s video. We'll start with interest rates or the prospects for interest rate cuts and we'll see that on September 17th. There is no next FOMC meeting in August. There's only the big central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole, but we're seeing a 90% interest rate cut. So currently the markets are saying that we will definitely see an interest rate cut in September. Remember on

2:19 Wednesday it was still at 5050. That's how quickly it can happen. And to the surprise of many, these interest rate cuts were not necessarily bullish per se . And that is again very important to understand. Interest rate cuts are only positive if they are not due to weak economic data or a weak economic outlook. And that is exactly what would happen now: we have weak labor market data and, as a result, interest rates are cut. Trump has already announced that he wants to fire the head of the department or unit that releases this labor market data , because he first says that this data is useless or is manipulated, which, funnily enough, he is probably right about , although of course, as always, the communication is somewhat questionable. But since we will definitely

3:04 get more labor market data between the next FOMC meeting, it could even be that there will be no interest rate hike in the end, because other, more positive labor market data will then be published. And that would ultimately be in our interest too. I think it's a worrying sign if interest rate cuts take place in September, because we'll be reminded of this historically and it's very important to understand and that's one of the biggest myths that exists out there in the financial world, that interest rate cuts are positive per se. And here we see the S&P 500 over the last 30 years and below the interest rate of the American Federal Reserve. And what you can pay close attention to is 2000 here. We see the central bank cutting interest rates. Prices fall shortly after recession. We see 2007

3:53 2008 central bank short interest rates, the biggest bear market of the last 50 years begins. We see it before Corona 2019. Repo crisis, interest rates, crash, recession. And ultimately, if we begin the next major interest rate cycle, or rather, cut cycle , that would probably also be a sign that the next recession is imminent and, accordingly, in my opinion, there would then be major stock market setbacks because the valuations would then simply no longer have anything to do with reality. In some cases they don't have any, but then they definitely don't anymore. And why is that so? Historically, the Fed always cuts interest rates too late. Ultimately, if the labor market data were really bad, the damage would have already been done . Um, a few interest rate cuts won't help anymore until they actually have a positive effect

4:40 on the economy. Yes, 6 to 12 months, maybe even closer to 12 to 24 months, and accordingly the fat is actually always behind and accordingly historically it has actually always been a negative sign . Exceptions here are the mid- 1990s, when we only saw small interest rate cuts, which more or less fueled the bull market , as has happened recently. We saw interest rate cuts in 2024, but then a pause and no permanent interest rate cut cycle, such as in 2028, 219, 220 and the 2000s. And I think it's really crucial that you don't start the next one now, because then we'll be very, very close to the top. Then last week we talked about Greed , we were almost on Extreme Greed, now we're

5:26 back to neutral. This is definitely a positive sign that we can soon think about buying more shares again. If we can even get to Territory 4 in the next week or two, that would be even better. Continue reading Wix Seasonality. Last week, exactly a week ago, we talked in this format about how August is actually a very positive month for volatility and we have now seen the best day of volatility since April and I can well imagine that this volatility cycle will continue a bit further into the coming week and that is simply a sign that the stock market, as you can see, is now

6:11 going through its weakest phase of the year. August and September are historically the weakest months of the year. August has always been the worst month, even in a president's second term . But I can imagine that we potentially won't see such a deep correction , but that we will perhaps only be in correction mode for the first half of August and then turn upwards. But we have to judge this from week to week . In any case, this is a very exciting chart for precious metals and the markets . is the US Dollar Index, which has been in a massive downward spiral since Tram's inauguration , similar to 2016 during Trump's first term in office. And we recently saw a stronger

6:56 countermovement here, and I actually assumed that this countermovement would continue, or rather, I still do, but we have now seen that in the short term, and this is Friday, the interest rate cut expectations for September have resulted in a massive setback. At the same time what happened? Gold is spiked. While here the dollar has now made its counter-rally. We can take a quick look at that now . Let’s briefly consider the price of gold. Then we see, um, that gold has made the bottom here since then. um, the price of gold hasn't gotten any further now, but we can see this counter-correlation one to one. Interest rates come down, the dollar goes down and gold goes down. We'll take a look at gold

7:42 in a moment, but that will be very crucial now if the dollar really does see its rollover here . That would of course be extremely bearish for the dollar. It would be extremely bullish for gold. But I would actually hope that we continue to climb a bit further, that gold consolidates for a longer period, and that we at least get a small dollar rally into August before the next rollover comes. We will get the answer to that next week. If the dollar continues to trend downwards here, then that's probably already it. But that's not really my base case scenario right now . Let's look at the stock markets. S&P 500 has now been a 30% rally more or less since mid-

8:28 April to the end of July. So in three and a half months, we've seen a massive rally here, and it's been a long time since we got a break . Now the big question is how long will the break last? If we perhaps look at this again briefly from an Elliot wave perspective , then I would roughly say that if we take the 2022 October lows , we had 1 2 3 4 here and are now in the fifth wave. And the big question now, of course, is, was the fifth wave already over here or are we going higher again? In my opinion, we have at least one more rally this year and then we will see the top of what happens after that. That is the big question. I could imagine that this will actually be the start of a very large correction, but that is still too early to tell.

9:13 In the short term, I would say we have two zones here for now. So, I think the old times would be a plausible zone and theoretically we could even go a level lower if we take the 200 Daily Moving Average to get us down here. But that would definitely take a bit longer to correct. So I think if we trend down to this point , we'll definitely need four weeks plus. Um, if we just get up to this zone, i.e. ultimately retest this breakout area , then I think it can happen relatively quickly. Next week maybe a little bit down again, then a bounce in the middle of the week, another sell-off in the second week of August and then I think we'll be

9:59 ready to rise again and then we'll only have a short intermediate correction on the way up. That's still my base case, so I don't think we're starting a major bear market here. That would be about 5% to 7% from top to bottom. I think that would be a very healthy, um, correction. I think we've had 25 days now without a 1% move. It was about time for a little volatility to come back down here. If we look at a few other ratios that we've had with us recently, Arc Innovation versus the S&P 500, then I would say that what we plotted here a week or two ago is actually happening, that we've now had the breakout and the retest. That means the more speculative stocks are performing differently

10:46 now, and then, I believe, we'll be ready for another strong rally in the speculative stocks. Accordingly, I simply believe this is a bullish pullback. Have you ever wondered what would happen to your money if not only the stock market crashed, but the entire system collapsed? I'm not talking about a few red numbers on the bank statement or in the portfolio. I'm talking about frozen German accounts, locked safe deposit boxes, banks that are suddenly no longer accessible and no longer open. That is precisely why we developed the security strategy . The hedging strategy is managed by experienced analysts who you may already know from the Friedrich Report. The hedging strategy is not a one-size-fits-all solution, not a standard fund, not a glossy product from a Frankfurt bank branch, but a

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12:17 if push comes to shove, there's even a red button that lets you shift your portfolio into Swiss francs . In a world where the noose is tightening and stability and security can no longer be taken for granted, you need a strategy that is designed for emergencies. Because those who take precautions remain able to act when others are no longer able to. And remember, prevention is more important than cure. You can find more information about the unique backup strategy in the show notes below. And now have fun with today’s video. Then I would say let's jump straight into the Max Sevens. I was thinking , if we're thinking about pullbacks and opportunities, let's go through the maxes. Which ones might look interesting here? Let's start with Amazon. Unlike the S&P 500 and many other stocks, Amazon did not reach a

13:03 new all-time high. was also punished this week in the post-earnings results . For me it would be a stock where I am currently neutral, where I don't think I would buy a position. If I had a current position, I would probably hold it for now, but in this pullback, I primarily want to buy stocks that have already made new all-time highs, i.e. have shown relative strength. Amazon is not one of them. It has gained 40% since the April lows, including its peak, and now after the setback it's gained 30%. So it more or less moved in step with the S&P 500. Can you also buy an S&P 500? Accordingly, Amazon is uninteresting. Let's continue with Apple. For me, Apple is the least interesting Max 7

13:49 value and has also performed massively differently than Amazon. No new Alzho made. In fact, it clearly failed. would actually be a candidate for me that I would put on a shortlist at the moment and is therefore not interesting for me. The company is of course still very strong overall, but I believe it needs to fundamentally reinvent itself and launch new products . A level you can mark on if you are bullish. Amazon is the level here, what is that? $ if you look at Apple, sorry, if you get over that, then it is certainly interesting, but otherwise I think the danger here is more of a large rollover and simply a larger consolidation correction or

14:35 correction in Apple. Continue reading with Google and Alphabet. Similar to Amazon, no new Altzeithofs have yet been created. Also recently moved roughly in step with the S&P 500. But given the market structure , I could possibly imagine that we could get a pullback back to the 170s and then start the next move up. At first glance, I like the structure a bit better than Amazon. But it probably wouldn't be my number 1 anyway, because it did n't create any new Alzhofs. So per se it also showed relative weakness . Anyone who has shown relative strength and at a relatively insanity level

15:21 is meta, if you look at the one that has been here since 2023, Mark Sakerberg and Metab and so on and so forth, where everyone was afraid . Now he's going crazy. Has simply made almost 800% such a big cap within Yes. two and a half years. This is insane, there is no other way to describe it. And recently it was up over 60%, almost twice the performance of the S&P 500. It also reached new all-time highs and then had these mega earnings, which, looking back, were probably a blowoff for the entire market. I think that if things come down here in a somewhat consolidated way, Meta will certainly be interesting and you can imagine that it will continue to be a hit.

16:06 However, if you look at the big picture here, you are certainly very extended. So for me it's only short-term trading opportunities now, I don't see any long-term meter position on the levels either. Another big winner in this whole AI topic in general has been Microsoft. He has also done a beautiful job of showing what we are now hopefully seeing in the S&P 500 . He finally tested the old breakout levels again and then moved up from here. So here too, I would say it's a picture book chart. If we can get those levels around 450-460 again , that would be interesting too.

16:56 I think a 16% correction would be very healthy for Microsoft, and I think it will stay on the Pand of this start screen for now. Another of the very strong Max 7 values is Nvidia. Ultimately the same game here as with Microsoft, test the breakout area again at 150 to 160. Pullbacks in that direction , I think, would bring another high and last but not least Tesla is one of the other performers in this series, with I think the weakest Max 7 value alongside Apple, I would currently remain neutral for the time being, which I would find exciting if on the

17:42 one hand we take out these highs here or on the other hand we really go below $270 again and there are probably still a lot of stops here, a lot of liquidity if we get them out again. Um, I think it would be very exciting if we even swept these levels again. At around 220, I think that would be a very good setup, but for the moment Tesla continues to trend downwards and I remain neutral. Can you say who looks good. I think Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta were the absolute stars. Google comes next. Amazon, rather neutral, Apple and Tesla wait and see. What I

18:28 also saw in many discussions this week was a Danish stock, namely Nwo Nordisk, which has been one of the really big high-flyers in recent years. So, if you look at that, last year is an understatement, just the last two decades. Um, then you have to say, the thing is, I'm even excused for the last three decades. Well, it's actually been going straight up since 1988. There was a longer consolidation here from 2015 to 2020 , but that was an insane performance. The thing ultimately went from 12 cents to $145, which are Bitcoin-like returns. 130,000

19:16 1000%. That's impressive and shows what opportunities long-term investing offers, especially when you get very, very good entry prices . Now in the short term, the stock has recently fallen over 67%, but in the end it is now simply at 2022 levels. Now the big question that many people have been asking on Twitter or elsewhere in social media is, is this a chance of a lifetime to invest in Novo Nordisk? Fundamentally, I have to say, I can't assess it enough. In general, competition in the business is getting bigger and bigger. It is unclear how patterns and so on, just as it is unclear how patents are handled in the US . Accordingly

20:03 , I am reserved when it comes to Novo. If you look at the volume, we definitely had a capitulation candle last time. Well, that speaks more for it, you look at that. Well, there was definitely a massive capitulation and these are mostly candles. So, if you look at it historically, it's actually the largest volume we've had since the 80s . So per se, if you are convinced about this stock, now is definitely the time to think about buying it . have now also come into these major support regions again from this 2021 consolidation. We're already at the bottom here, but I think a bounce from here is at least very likely. I'm

20:48 still going to hold back on long-term positions here, because if you look at it from a wave perspective, then I would say that we've now had a relatively clear five-part series here since 2016. That means that what we have achieved here was initially a medium-term high. And now we have even fallen below the 200- week average and per se you can only say that if a share is so far below the 200-week average, on the one hand it is an opportunity because sooner or later it will approach the 200-week average again. But on the other hand, you always have to be very, very careful when trading below the 200 weekly average.

21:36 And what I fear, unfortunately, is that this whole thing was an A. That was a B and we are now only in the C and this correction only started here in June and will probably continue for a few more weeks and could then definitely take it towards 30 dollars again and that means I would definitely be defensive unless there are fundamental reasons, but I can imagine there will be a bounce and then we will have another sell-off and ultimately we will get back down to these areas again. The long story short, for me Novo Nordisk is at most a speculation on short-term counter-movements. Otherwise, in the long term, I think I would wait until I see a range form somewhere,

22:23 the prices calm down, and I get clearer signals. And otherwise it's just classic falling knife catching, because lots of people have tried to catch this knife on the way down and it ended up going deeper and deeper. The Swiss are also having to take a real bite out of the apple this week , because Trump has now announced 39% taxes and tariffs for Switzerland. Whether they stay that way is, of course, debatable, but I think that includes watchmaking and chocolate and everything else the Swiss export to the USA. First of all, there is pressure on the AG, because I believe that the watch companies cannot pass this on to the end customer and it shows once again that the USA simply has the upper hand in many of these customs negotiations

23:09 . And if we take a look, for example, most Swiss watch manufacturers are not listed on the stock exchange, but we have the Swatch Group here, which already looks like it. So, it's a long-term chart again. True, 2013 was in that area and since then we have actually been in a long downtrend and we are actually already at the 2008 lows. Well, the watch industry seems to have been suffering for a long time anyway, and if these tariffs remain in place, this could potentially be another blow to the day. This means that Switzerland is definitely under considerable pressure now. A stock like Nestle, if you've been following along, is also being seen again. Similar example actually to Novo Nordisk. If we

23:55 look at it again, it has also had a massive upward trend for 20 years. Now we have fallen below the 200-week average and have also started a massive downtrend here . And of course, as you can see, there are always strong counter rallies in these, even in such hard downtrends, but we still have n't formed a bottom here and that's why I would be cautious with knife catching here. Regardless of whether it goes down further here or whether it perhaps starts to consolidate here, I think such strong sell-off buys need to consolidate in the sideways range first, and then at some point you can think about whether it will go up again. But Swiss industry is definitely under pressure. Let's see if the tariffs stay. Bitcoin was also under pressure this week . And

24:41 for now, we have not managed to break out of this consolidation upwards. The headwinds were simply too strong for this to happen, and of course there is now fear as to whether this was the Cycle Pack. And if we take a quick look at the bigger picture, all of this was already reached on July 12th , peak 122,000 and we are now starting the next big downward spiral. Personally, I think that's very, very unlikely, or almost impossible, but we have relatively clear limits that we will stick to and that will ultimately give us the answer to this question . Personally , I believe that this will now correct itself in August, similar to the stock market

25:28 , but that we may even start the next uptrend more quickly in the second half of August. Speaking of Bitcoin, you want to know when to buy, where to buy and, above all, how to buy? Then I have the perfect solution for you. Hi, my name is Mark Friedrich. I am a bestselling author and financial expert, and have been a fee-based advisor for years. Together with my team, we analyze the markets, macro trends, and of course, Bitcoin. In the Friedrich Report, we regularly examine Bitcoinmt, highlighting clear entry and exit opportunities, and helping you protect your assets and identify opportunities early on. And all this for less than €1 a day and then you become part of the community and you get more detailed knowledge about Bitcoin, commodities, stocks and much more. So stop by now at friedrich.

26:13 So that you can finally understand and invest in Bitcoin. And now back to the video. As I already posted here, we shouldn't fall below 112k. We can do that a little bit, we can give it a little more leeway. We can also see it at 100 below 108k , but there shouldn't be any weekly closes below 108000 or at most one where there's a spike down here and then we quickly recover. Why? If that happens, then we are actually in these scenarios and we will now go into them a little more in depth , but I think it is important to understand because then you can make very good decisions and that brings us back to the classic Wikov distribution. And why is this so crucial? Because we have

26:59 seen the Bitcoin story many times before. I think the best, most well-known one was 2021. More or less a textbook WCOF distribution . And what is it that ultimately makes a significant high? We did that with Bitcoin in April 21 and later exceeded it again in November, October, but then we could n't stay above it and fell back into the old range. And that is usually a big warning sign. Not only with Bitcoin, it applies to almost all markets and then ultimately the bear market began when we failed to establish ourselves above this old high. And the same thing could happen to us here if we fall below 108,000,

27:44 110,000, depending on where exactly you want to set the franchise. But I'd say somewhere in this area between 108 and 112,000, if we establish ourselves below that again, then the whole thing here was just a range deviation, just like we had down here, and most of the time these deviations result in rapid and strong movements in the other direction. You saw that here too. In the end, this was a fakeout , everything has become maximalish on the day with the tariffs and so on and so forth. And then there was the very rapid movement to the range hot. And if this was all just a bulltrap, then we have to assume that we're going back to at least the 90s, if not the upper 70s. And that means that this is such a crucial level, and that's why I don't

28:29 really want to see any more courses below that , just a retest at most . This area could still go a bit lower, but a sideways consolidation would be good, and of course we can't have a really big stock market correction for that , because I think if we get a stronger and longer- lasting stock market correction , it will be more difficult for Bitcoin hardware to stay above it and not ultimately give in to gravity. And that means the best thing would be a fairly shallow correction in the stock markets, around 5 to 7%. Then Bitcoin has already done quite a bit, having already corrected by 7-8% from its top. If it goes a little lower, that's 10%. The

29:18 stock market would already be double that again at 5-6% and then I think the way is still open towards 130,140,150,000. But what is definitely a bit worrying is, if you look at the whole thing objectively, what kind of news we've had recently, and that's actually news that you can see more in the top. Um, let me remind him of the Forbs cover on January 31st when Michael Sailor was called the Bitcoin Alchemist. That more or less provided the perfect top of this correction or this range formation in January and then we fell over 30% after this cover appeared. Now we have the Robin Hood CEO on the cover with Crypto Second Revolution. We had Micro Strategy with Michael Sailor's

30:03 absurd presentation. And I think this will definitely go down in the history books. In 10 or 15 years, it will definitely be seen in financial history books that he presents his company's strategy as a pyramid. If MicroStrategy ever gets into trouble or even fails in the end , then that was more or less the absolute peak when the CEO explained the strategy in the form of a pyramid. And of course, we've had a lot of bullish news recently regarding regulation, which was very, very positive in the US, but the price has still fallen. So it's usually not a very good sign if you get fundamentally bullish news , but the price reacts negatively to it , that's usually more of a

30:48 top signal. And now let's hope that it doesn't go like it did here with Michael Sailor, because if we correct by 30% here , then that would of course mean that we're back in the upper 70s. So it would actually be perfect, this range deviation that I mentioned earlier, and now we hope that this was just an interim correction and that the prices will turn upwards from here. If it does happen, and this is perhaps the last thought here about Bitcoin, if we should fall back into this range , then it will not be the end of the world or the end of Bitcoin. The only consequence of this was that the price would probably stay in this range for months and I don't think we would see any new all-time highs this year. But there is

31:35 nothing to prevent us from starting towards 2026 . It would probably even mean, if we were to form a huge base here , another six months from now, that the upward price movements would be significantly stronger than if we were to move upwards from here, because we would then build up much more energy here. That means it's not the end of the world, but it would definitely mean that the cycles and so on would shift significantly, as would the timelines, and that's why this is such a crucial spot for Bitcoin right now. And last but not least, I brought Bitcoin and global liquidity. And there we see something very, very, very, very exciting and perhaps one of the most important

32:20 charts of today's update. We can see per se that over the last one and a half to two years, the global liquidity shown here in blue has been the perfect signpost or perfect guideline for Bitcoin with simply the very striking peak here on Christmas 24, which then also brought the Bitcoin correction behind it and then the turning point in early April, when more or less to the day the global liquidity and Bitcoin also turned upwards. and what the global liquidity is showing us now for the coming months, or rather for the next two months, is that we will definitely move into September . The current top date would be

33:06 September 23rd of this year. Funnily enough, the FMC meeting is just a week away, where interest rates are supposedly going to be cut . At least that's what the market is currently assuming and it would of course simply be the cherry on top. If we cut interest rates, everyone is waiting, that's the extremely bullish event and Bitcoin will simply mark its cycle top more or less in the week . So it would fit very, very perfectly. Whether this is the cycle top or not, we can only decide later, because we have to see how global liquidity develops. whether we are really seeing a larger rollover here or whether this is just an interim correction in September October and we will then potentially still get our blow-of top into November December. But the key

33:53 takeaway is that due to global liquidity, it actually looks as if Bitcoin should be able to continue its rally well into August and then reach a peak in mid-to-late September. the guideline based on global liquidity. Micro Strategy is probably no longer able to achieve an all-time high in this cycle. And there we are again with Michael Sailor and Micro Strategy now looks really clearly battered, unlike Bitcoin which is no longer at its all-time high and that is remarkable in the sense that MicroStrategy has always been the leader in this cycle so far . So it outperformed Bitcoin and it actually always anticipated Bitcoin's moves and now the opposite is happening, while

34:40 Bitcoin is still above its old highs , Micro Strategy hasn't even made new highs and has now failed here and I can well imagine that Micro Strategy will actually no longer make all-time highs in this cycle, no matter what Bitcoin does and there can be many reasons for that. This could be because there are simply more treasury companies now and the strategy is being copied by many, meaning that the strategy has lost its unique selling point . It could be because Michael Sailor is simply doing too many crazy things and the market doesn't quite trust him anymore. It could also be because we have perhaps just seen the high for this year with Bitcoin and it will fall back into the range. Well, it's hard to say right now, but we can say for now that the chart is sending out a warning signal and it looks awfully

35:26 similar to 21, and 21 was the same. We actually already had the blowout top in February and then did n't manage any more highs, and this time it would have been in November . Let's take a quick look at the Bitcoin chart again, let's do it briefly here under R, and then you can see quite clearly that Microsegy was already topped out in February, while Bitcoin only reached its peak in April. Bitcoin managed to make a second high, then in November Microso Strategy didn't anymore and then the bear market started and this time the final game was also high again shortly before Bitcoin , so Bitcoin only reached its peak in this range in December . Microsies has already made his mark here. Bitcoin is making

36:14 another high and is again roughly the same on a monthly basis. Yes, if we take a quick look at it, we had 279 days here and here it was around 230 days, 240 days and that means that it rhymes a lot and that's why it's definitely a small warning sign, which in conjunction with the price action would be a very big warning signal for me. If we fall back into this range, then we simply have to assume that MicroStrategy was a leading indicator here again and gave us the signs again that Bitcoin will soon reach its top and that Bitcoin will then simply go back into the consolidation phase for a longer period. That 's it for now on the topic of Bitcoin. Last but

37:01 not least, we come to the topic of precious metals, and something interesting happened on Friday. So my hope was that gold would simply consolidate for a bit longer , that perhaps a bit of fear would enter the market, that sentiment would be reset, and that we would then start the next rally in September, October, and November. Now we have seen this dollar weakness. We have seen that interest rates are to be lowered . We saw stock market panics, and gold actually did what people had it in their portfolios for. It saw a very, very strong move upwards on Friday . I'm still hoping that we'll see some more dollar strength in the next week or two , that the situation might calm down a bit after the bad economic data, and that we'll get the rollover again and

37:48 at least go to $3,200 or just below that. Just take a lot of stops here , reset the sentiment again, and then have the energy to go towards $4,000 in Q4. Either way, this is not a wish list. Of course, we can also just start the next rally from here. But I think it will also be very crucial for Bitcoin, because I think it's rather unlikely that both will start a big rally. In the past, too, it was mostly alternating. Either Bitcoin or gold has risen. Both together are actually very rare, and accordingly, it would also be good for Bitcoin, and if the gold price doesn't break out here directly, then I think Bitcoin will definitely fall back into the old range. But for now we can only continue to observe. Either way, I remain bullish

38:34 on gold. Regardless of whether we make the breakout here now , or whether we see another long consolidation, I am very, very sure that there will be another high this year and accordingly I think I would still say that pullbacks are buying opportunities, otherwise continue to hold the position. We are literally standing on the brink of golden opportunity. If you also want to buy gold but don't know where, I can definitely recommend our partner Flex Gold from Switzerland. Simply digitally secure and available at any time. And the best part: As a Friedrich Report subscriber, you benefit from exclusive special conditions that we have negotiated for you . So a subscription to Friedreport is doubly worthwhile. And the best thing is, you can not only buy gold, but also silver, palladium,

39:19 platinum without VAT and you have it stored outside the EU in Switzerland in a duty-free warehouse. And if you need money, you can liquidate it instantly at any time at the touch of a button. It could n't be better. We rely on Flexgold. I hope you do too. You can find all the information directly below this video. And now we move on. Enjoy the video. The price of silver has behaved a little differently recently. We actually reached our target zone perfectly here. Here, the bullish consolidation has also moved upwards, which has now fallen downwards in Bitcoin . We've also got silver here again at an incredible pace. We raised it and then it went down again by 7-8% in a few days. And two options for me. Either that was already the bottom or when

40:04 gold made its bottom, then I think that was all the silver correction had to offer and we go up from here. But here too, I would prefer that we get a bounce, then go down again and only then start towards Q4, the real rally. But I see everything per se, as long as we are, let's say, over $34 . For me, these are all purchase prices for physical precious metals. I haven't sold any silver myself . I probably won't sell silver until we're above $100 anyway. For me, this is truly a long-term investment. Short-term movements are, of course, something to be happy about, but I always see the downside as an opportunity to buy more, as long as we're below $40 and therefore at an interesting level. I think if we come down here again, I would buy some again myself. If that was the end of it, then

40:50 I probably won't do anything else. And that was, I think, my good all-round attack again. To summarize, I expect only interim corrections and would view pullbacks in both Bitcoin and stocks as opportunities to buy more. But especially in the stock market, I would focus on those stocks that have already shown relative strength. So those that have outperformed since the April lows . I think that's where the backs are most attractive. I would rather ignore stocks that were low, such as Apple. Hopefully we will see a longer consolidation in gold and silver. Then there are also absolute chances to buy again if that's it . Then you can definitely potentially buy more silver here, especially in these areas, but I think further consolidation would be very

41:37 desirable and I believe the longer we consolidate, the stronger the next movements will be. But to sum up , we remain bullish. I think this is a very, very healthy correction. It was long overdue. Sentiment indicators are now being reset, and then we essentially have all the green lights again to see further highs this year , which I believe should then be used to take significantly more profits and significantly larger cash positions, both in the stock market and possibly in Bitcoin, depending on what kind of long-term hoarding strategy you are pursuing. So I'm out for now. See you again next Sunday. We'll probably see each other again during the week for one or two interviews. It should be another very exciting trading week. Will

42:23 the correction continue or will we see some consolidation first? In that sense, I'm out for now. I hope you enjoyed it as always. Leave a like, feel free to leave a comment and we'll see you again next Sunday. Take care. M.