DON'T Trade Tomorrow Until You See This (Fed/Kabuki Day)

0:00 Hey traders, Michael here from my strategic forecast. You're here for another episode of Common Sense Market Analysis. Today is turnaround Tuesday, March 17th, 2026. You're looking at a daily chart of the SPY or Spiders, which is the proxy for the S&P 500. What do we have on the docket today? Today's video is probably going to be a bit on the shorter side, just because today's tape was a lot like yesterday. Very slow, pretty much watching turtles watch paint dry. But what's pretty interesting is how in multiple different markets like the spiders, IWM, even the Q's all came up short of key targets towards the upside and towards the downside. And this isn't unusual behavior, especially leading up to the Fed tomorrow. Tomorrow is Kabuki Day. That pretty much explains the slow tape that we've been having today and yesterday. But coming up short

0:48 of these key destinations really just shows that tomorrow is going to give us a great deal of new information, some new puzzle pieces to help build out the bigger picture. So tomorrow and the rest of the week is going to be very interesting. But as always, we're going to cover everything that you need to know so that you are ready prior to the Fed and then what's next to come later up this week. So we can start with the spiders first. We're up 26% and as you can see, we could zoom this in a bit. We came up short of two destinations. Number one is Irene towards the upside. We made a high of 67444. So 56 cents short of Irene and just barely missing that downwards trend line that has been an area of overhead resistance for a while as you can see.

1:37 And then on the flip side, we came up short of this gap down below at 66903 and 369 numbers. So from where we stand right now, we're pretty much right smack in the middle of these two key targets, Irene. And then also you have a gap above Irene towards the upside and then right here you got the gap down below. So the main question is which one does she want to complete first? And tomorrow being Kabuki day should answer that question. Now, I can't sit here and tell you that I'm 100% certain that we're going to hit Irene and take care of the gap up above or that I'm 100% certain that we're going to miss it and just hit the gap towards the downside. The thing is, we don't know what's going to happen. Anything can go with the Fed. And right now, we're just right smack in the middle. And frankly, it doesn't matter which way we're going to go.

2:25 Okay? The market is going to do what she wants to do. But one thing that we really need to keep our eyes out for tomorrow is where we close them. The most important thing that we can gather from the day itself is how we close the tape. It doesn't matter if she is going to run a test towards Irene and fill the gap up above or the complete opposite and fill the gap at 669. It doesn't really matter. It matters in which we're going to have the intraday numbers and be ready for any trading opportunities that present itself. But again, the main thing that we're looking for so that we can understand the bigger picture perspective of what is truly going on is how we close candles in regards to these important numbers. So closing candles above Irene is a good sign for the bulls. Irene falls right in line with that trend line. So if we can manage to

3:12 get above Irene and the trend line and close candles above, then that is a bullish sign for the market at least for the short term because we still need to keep our eyes out for that weekly close. Okay, testing Irene on a day-to-day basis just like last week is normal behavior. Okay, it's a very magnetic number to the market. But what truly matters is if we can continue to close candles below Irene on a weekly basis because that is the major flare up in the air. And last week marked the second week in a row of closing below Irene. So will this week be the third week in a row of closing below Irene? Remember the larger the time frame is, the more dominant it's going to be? Looking at last week's action, we closed 1 2 3 days above Irene and then crapped right back

3:59 down below it and closed weekly below it. that is going to hold more importance than the three days that we closed above it up here. So, I'm just telling you that that is something you need to keep in your back pockets. From a shorter term perspective, closing above Irene on a day-to-day basis is a better sign for the bulls. And then that could help us get back to the place where the market feels the most comfortable at, which is home base, the 20 period moving average, which is right up at 680 right now. And then, of course, we are the umpires calling balls and strikes. So we need to understand both perspectives of the market, both sides of the tape. So if we can't recapture Irene and close above that and the trend line, then we still are in a weakened position and an even weaker close would be closing below the 66-9

4:45 number. If we do close below 669, then the door will reopen back towards the support zone. Not sure what happened to this line right here, but let's go put it back. Make that green. The support zone is from 66159 to 65903. And we got the 200 period moving average slowly getting into this zone. And going back to that weekly close because that is uber uber important. If we can somehow manage to close weekly candles below this zone, even the frontend number is a flare up in the air and a not so good of a sign for the market. That's another thing to be on the lookout for. What about the Q people? very similar situation. We have a gap up above and that is a place of overhead resistance at 60769. Then towards the downside, we have a gap

5:33 right around 600. The exact number is 638. And we're right smack in the middle. So the main question is which destination does she want to go to first? We're not going to sit here and guess cuz in reality we don't know what's going to happen, but what we can do is just lay out the framework. And of course, we're going to have all of the intraday numbers ready for inside the numbers and live room members. So, we're going to be ready for any and all opportunity that presents itself. Closing below 600 is a weak close and especially getting back below 595 and closing below that is an uber weak close. We already closed below it on Friday, which I do think is a canary type of situation. So, if we get back into this zone from 595 to 590, it is

6:21 possible that we can dig right on through or at least reach the backend number, which we've yet to accomplish. Let's take a look at my number one favorite market leading indicator, CAM IWM. So, we're up 045% today. Just taking a look at the hourly time frame. Over the past few days, we really just haven't made any substantial movement. We're still hovering below the trend line. Going back over to the daily, we can see that we just came up just shy of that and the gap up above. The gap comes in at 25285. That is going to be an overhead resistance place. Falls right in line with the trend line. It's a gap right at the 100 period moving average as well. So, it's an important destination for IWM and it should be at least some resistance from an intraday perspective. And right now we are at a critical

7:10 moment for IWM because if we get a little bit of extra movement tomorrow and see which direction we actually want to go to, if the direction and the energy that we've been building up for the last few days yesterday and today, if that's going to be released towards the upside, then we have the potential to possibly close candles above that trend line. That trend line has been overhead resistance for the last few weeks. So getting above and closing candles above is going to be a pretty big deal for Camp IWM. And we already came up a little bit short of it today. So a spike through necessarily isn't going to be out of the ordinary. But again, the main thing that we need to be on the lookout for is how we close candles. And then just thinking a few steps ahead, we need to see how we close candles in regards to that weekly time

7:56 frame. If we can't recapture the trend line and get above this gap right here, and really we're going to be retesting the vicinity of these lows. Maybe we could get a higher low. Time will tell. But let's just say either tomorrow or anytime this week, if we close candles near the vicinity of this breakup candle low, that is a pretty bad close for IWM. And that could potentially lead to another leg lower, more so trying to reach the next destination, the 200 period MA. So, I do want to show you guys some more secret sauce before getting into some of the other markets. And trust me, you're going to want to stay for this because it's something that we look at each and every single day. And for inside the numbers and live room members, despite it being a very slow start to the morning, it was extremely important to exercise

8:44 patience. And that's exactly what we did. We weren't trying to force any positions despite the slow tape. But really, what we were doing is waiting for what we want and what we wanted. And the opportunity that presented itself was this spike the low and rip it right back up opportunity. We had a number right at 67235 and just taking it at face value. You can see the importance of that number but very hard to stay above it early this morning and then later on even utilized it as overhead resistance on the way back up. So we could give that a funny how that works. And another note that I put out to inside the number members and obviously traders in the live room managed to pick this trade up as well said that you need to understand that she can spike the number by a touch in order to reach today's low which was

9:32 right here. This is a spike the low and rip it right back up opportunity. And what do you know? She spiked the low by around 3540 cents or so. And then we ripped it right back up in the other direction. And I said that the next destination for some profit taking would be around 673 give or take. It was right near the vicinity of this breakdown candle high. As you could see right here, this candle, we managed to reach very close to the high of the actual candle and then we came right back down where too that 67235. And that was the number that I was watching very very closely because if we broke that and closed candles below, that would open the door for another leg lower. That acted as a pivotish number. Look how many times we retested that

10:19 number, but always closed candles above it until right here we closed candles below it. Went for a retest back up towards the upside right here. Couldn't get back above it. Continued to close candles below and then we did indeed have another leg lower. Break down to around 670 give or take. But this spike to low opportunity was the morning trade. And we really had to exercise patience for that one. We wait for the things that we want. We don't force trades because that never works out. We all know how that goes. Patience is key. And you can even spell it like this because when you exercise patience, you get paid. Sorry for my terrible handwriting. What's going on in my second favorite market leading indicator, the transportation department. We're up 1.11%. Yesterday, I drew a black line that

11:06 represented a recent breakout area right here. And as you could see from today's activity, the low was pretty much on the freaking dot. Utilize that as support on the way back down. And then we tried to get to the frontend number of the resistance zone. This was originally a support zone, which would have been the backend number, but on the way back up, this zone can be utilized as overhead resistance. That 18250 number, we came up short of it. It also happens to fall in line right with a gap. So, if we want any upside potential, we really have to start getting into that zone and being able to close candles above it. For starters, at least the front end number at 18250. So, that will certainly be something to be on the lookout for for tomorrow. If we can't accomplish

11:54 recapturing this area, the gap, and even getting up higher into the zone, we're pretty much going to come right back down to retest these lows and the 100 period moving average. If we start to just hover over the 100 period and eat time off the clock, it's only going to act as support for so long. And even if we close candles below, that can produce another leg lower in the transportation department. But overall, taking it at face value, there's no real material change within the chart. Still looking to see if we could recapture this zone. And then just from a bigger picture perspective, we're just writing the 20 period moving average. But remember, the longer we stay just hovering right over it, eating time off the clock, she can spike through it and head down lower. What's going on in XLF? We're up 0.53% and there's no real material change on

12:42 the chart either. We're just continuously slowly grinding up higher. The first destination that we want to reach to is home base, the 20 period moving average. And then up above, we have an important number at 5125 that we've been talking about for quite some time now. Staying below that is the bare case scenario and of course staying below the trend line. But notice how home base has already converged between all of the moving averages the 5100 and 200. And then even right here in this area you could see more moving averages starting to converge. This is beginning to show the strength of this downtrend that we're in. Until we can recapture either the 5125 or the trend line, we're still in a weakened state. And if we go over to the weekly time frame, we're

13:27 right at the 100 period moving average and we're really just hanging around. It will be interesting to see if by the time the weekly close comes around, whether we close above or below that 100 period MA above is an okay sign. We're still below a lot of the key numbers and destinations towards the upside. So, it's not the best type of situation, but it is a little bit better as if we were to close below it. And then obviously, if we did close below it, that is a weakened sign as well. As of right now, we're just hanging around and eating some time off the clock around the 100 period MA. I do have some important numbers that I want you to write down on a sticky note. If we do decide to break down further, those numbers come in at 48 and 47, creating a support zone. So, that's another thing to keep in your back pockets for now. Last but not

14:14 least, we got SMH shaking my head to semiconductors. Smashmouth. We're up 75%. No real material change on the chart either, but it's pretty funny how we closed practically right on the pivot number, just a smidgen below. And really, there's no real change from what we talked about yesterday. If we start to get above the pivot and close candles above, we have this gap right here at around 401 that we need to take care of. That falls in line with the 50 and 20 period moving average around the vicinity. But then also the main main destination that we need to get above if we want any upside potential is 40718. It's a very key target towards the upside and a place of some overhead resistance. On the flip side, if we continue to close candles below the

15:00 pivot, that is the bare case scenario and we'll go ahead and go down back to this support zone at 38720 38107. But notice how last Friday and Thursday we already reached that front-end number. So it wouldn't be unusual behavior to go ahead and spike through it or at least reach the backend number. It'd be nice to see if that backend number corresponds with the 100 period moving average when we get there. Now with that said, have I told you guys how much I appreciate each and every single one of you? Without you guys, these videos or MSF would not be possible. That is true and accurate information. Put it on a sticky note. We're pulling the rip cord for today. Thank you all so much for tuning in for another episode of Common Sense Market Analysis. I'm Michael or Mini Frost will be back ready

15:46 to go in uniform for tomorrow's Kabuki day and of course the video later that night. I hope each and every single one of you has a great rest of your day. Stay safe and take care now folks.