EU Races to Secure US Trade Deal; Japanese PM Suffers Election Setback | Bloomberg Brief 7/21/2025

0:25 ♪ DANI: GOOD MORNING, HERE IS WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON THIS MONDAY. EUROPE PREPARES FOR A FIGHT. LESS THAN TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE U.S. TRADE DEADLINE, THE E.U. GETS READY TO PUSH BACK. JAPAN'S PRIME MINISTER VOWS TO STAY ON TO NEGOTIATE TARIFFS DESPITE HIS PARTY'S HISTORIC DAY ELECTION LAWS. AND STELLANTIS BOOKS A MASSIVE LOSS FOR THE U.S. IT IS BIG TECH EARNINGS ON DECK. THE SECOND BUSIEST WEEK BY MARKET CAP FOR U.S. EARNINGS. GET ALPHABET THIS WEEK ALONGSIDE TESLA ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE UP BY ABOUT A QUARTER PERCENT. LITTLE CHANGED ON FRIDAY, SO SHOULD BE OPEN HERE, WE WILL BE AT OTHER ALL-TIME HIGHS. WHAT A VOLATILE AND CRAZY WEEK.

1:12 SOME QUESTIONS THAT FED INDEPENDENCE. TRYING TO SEE WHERE TARIFF INFLATION HIT, WE ARE MET WITH A RALLY THIS MORNING AFTER POSITIVE LAST WEEK ALONGSIDE CHRIS WALLER CALLING FOR LOW RATES. 10 YEAR YIELDS LOWER BY MORE THAN THREE BASIS POINTS. LET'S GET YOU NOW SOME STOCKS THAT ARE MOVING IN THE PREMARKET. WITH THAT IS VALERIE. VALERIE: LET'S START WITH A CHECK ON STELLANTIS. DOWN 1.4%, THIS COMES AFTER THEY'RE RELEASED SIMPLE AND AIRY FIGURES FOR THE FIRST HALF POINTING TO A LOSS OF 2.3 BILLION EUROS.

1:58 THERE WASN'T COLOR OF AN IMPAIRMENT CHARGE AROUND 3.3 BILLION EUROS THAT THEY GAVE DETAIL. STELLANTIS DOES REPORT FULL RESULTS NEXT TUESDAY SO WE WILL AWAIT THOSE AS WELL. MOVING ONTO STOCKS INCLUDED IN THE S&P 500, ONE OF THOSE BEING ADDED IS BLOCKED. SHARES ARE UP 9% SO FAR IN PREMARKET TRADE. IT'S GOING TO REPLACING HEST IN THE ASIAN BE 500. HEST WAS ACQUIRED BY CHEVRON ON FRIDAY SO THAT STOCK IS NOW DELISTED. SHARES TRADING JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER, UNCHANGED ON THE MOMENT.

2:46 THIS IS THE SECOND ID ADDED FOR ALASKA AIRLINES THAT HAS GROUNDED ITS FLEET THIS YEAR. DANI: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THAT. THAT KETTNER OF HSBC WILL GIVE HIS CURRENT READ TO US ON MARKET SIGNALS LATER THIS HOUR. ANOTHER BIG WEEK OF EARNINGS. FUTURES ARE RISING AND THE BUSY EARNINGS WEEK. THERE ARE SOME WARNING SIGNS EMERGING, SPECIFICALLY OUR SHORT-TERM SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING SIGNALS ARE NOW SENDING A SELL SIGNAL AND FACT, THE BIGGEST ONE SINCE MID-2023. I'M PLEASED TO SAY THAT MAX JOINS US NOW. REALLY WONDERFUL TO SPEAK WITH YOU THIS MORNING. IT WASN'T THAT LONG AGO, IN FACT THE START OF THIS MONTH

3:32 THAT YOU DOUBLED DOWN ON YOUR OVERWEIGHT U.S. EQUITY CALLS. I BALANCE THAT WITH THE CONCERNS YOU ARE SEEING ON A MORE TECHNICAL LEVEL NOW0. >> FROM A FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE I THINK THIS RALLY CONSOLE GO ON A LITTLE BIT FURTHER. I THINK EQUITIES IN THE U.S. STILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF ROOM TO RUN FURTHER PARTICULARLY WITH THAT REPORTING SEASON. LET'S REMEMBER THAT WE ARE GOING INTO THIS REPORTING SEASON WITH VERY LOW EXPECTATIONS. WE STARTED SAYING THAT EARNINGS ARE GOING TO DROP SEQUENTIALLY, THAT THEY ARE GOING TO SEE A QUARTER ON QUARTER DECLINE. EVEN IN TECH THAT IS FATHERED BY THE WEAKER DOLLAR BUT ALSO BY CONTINUED SPENDING ON THE AI SIDE.

4:21 SO THEREFORE I DO THINK THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS I STILL WELL SUPPORTED. I THINK HEADING TOWARD SEPTEMBER, IS PROBABLY A BIT MORE QUESTIONS LIKE YOU SAID AROUND THE TECHNICAL SIDE AND AROUND THE SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING SIDE. I THINK A LOT OF THAT HAS MISSED THE RALLY. STILL MORE SUBDUED SENTIMENT, STILL UNDERWEIGHT ON THE HIGH YIELDS ON AGGREGATE, BUT AT LEAST THE SHORTER-TERM SIGNALS FROM US A REALLY NOW STARTING TO FLASH. THIS DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE NEED TO IMMEDIATELY GET OUT, AND I DO THINK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS COME UP WITH A COUPLE OF HEDGES ON SOME OF THE CYCLICAL PART OF THE MARKET.

5:07 IN YEAR, THINGS LIKE THE AUTO SECTOR. THAT ALMOST 10% SQUEEZE THAT WE HAD EARLIER THIS MONTH, USE THOSE KINDS OF SQUEEZES TO PUT A COUPLE OF HEDGES ON UNLOCKING SOME OF THOSE GAINS. JONATHAN: IT IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM WHAT ETHAN SAME WHEN YOU BEEN WITH THE BULLISH AND WHAT YOU BEEN WITH THE COMMUNICATING WELL IS THAT THIS MARKET HAS BEEN MISSING A LOT OF THINGS THAT CAN GO RIGHT. BUT THE TITLE OF THE NOTE THAT YOU PUT OUT THIS MORNING IS WHAT COULD GO WRONG IN THE SECOND HALF. IS THAT ALSO AN ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT THERE ARE GREATER RISKS TO THE DOWNSIDE RIGHT NOW THAN TO THE UPSIDE? >> IT HAS TO BE IF YOU ARE AS BULLISH AS US.

5:53 WE CAN FAIRLY THE ANYMORE BULLISH. FROM THAT STARTING POINT, EVEN UPSIDE RISK I THINK WOULD BE PROBABLY NOT THE MOST PRUDENT THING TO DO. BY DEFINITION REALLY THE ONLY DOWNSIDE RISKS. THERE ARE SOME OF THEM THAT I AM GENUINELY CONCERNED ABOUT. THINGS LIKE YIELDS GOING UP AGAIN BECAUSE GROWTH IS TOO GOOD, OR MAYBE GOODS INFLATION GOES UP. BUT ULTIMATELY, THOSE ARE THE KINDS OF BUYING SIGNALS. THE SAME THING IS ON THE TECHNICAL SIDE, AT SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING, PUT A COUPLE OF HEDGES ON. TRUMP SAYING SOMETHING, SOMETHING HAPPENING ON THE FED SIDE OF THINGS. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A BIT OF A

6:40 HIGHER HEIGHT TO FOREFRONT, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE END OF THE RALLY. I THINK THERE'S MORE FUNDAMENTAL THINGS THAT I'M CONCERNED ABOUT. BUT FOR THE WRONG REASONS, FOR THE REASONS OF INTEGRATION FLOWS GOING INTO PERHAPS EVEN NEGATIVE. THAT REALLY WOULD BE SOMETHING THAT FUNDAMENTALLY WOULD MAKE ME CONCERNED. EVERYTHING ELSE IS TACTICALLY AND TECHNICALLY DRIVEN. DANI: IS IT A MARKET MORE SENSITIVE NOW? IT REALLY HAS BEEN ABLE TO BRUSH OFF, BE EXTREMELY RESILIENT. IS IT YOUR CONCERN THAT THAT TYPE OF LACK OF SENSITIVITY ENDS AS WELL? >> TALK AGAIN AFTER THE SUMMER HOLIDAYS.

7:29 I THINK THEN MAYBE I WILL ASK A BIT DIFFERENTLY OR I WILL ANSWER A BIT DIFFERENTLY BUT FOR NOW, I THINK IT IS THE SET UP OF THOSE REALLY LOWER EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS THAT WE HAD A HEAD OF THE Q2 REPORTING SEASON THAT CAN REALLY GET PARTICULARLY THE MEGA CAPS AND THE LARGE CAPS OF THE S&P 500 REALLY GOING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THAT REALLY OVERSHADOWS , THAT IS REALLY THE MUCH MORE IMPORTANT THING. I WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONVINCED THAT MUCH LESS CONVINCED IF WE WENT INTO THIS WITH THE TEXTBOOK PAGES OF LIKE 10% PLUS FOR THE TECH SECTOR.

8:26 I THINK IT IS A DIFFERENT THING BECAUSE THEN THERE MIGHT BE SOME MORE PLANS COMING ON THE FUNDAMENTAL BASIS. NOT NECESSARILY TARIFFS FOR THE FED, BUT MUCH MORE FROM A GROWTH EXPECTION. >> IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING TO LOOK AT A BOND MARKET HAS BEEN SENSITIVE TO INFLATIONARY CONCERNS COMING OUT. I KNOW THERE'S A LOT IN THIS BOND MARKET RIGHT NOW BUT WE SAW 30 YEAR YIELDS GO BACK ABOUT 57, 10 YEAR YIELD HOVER AROUND 4.5%. IF IT IS AN EQUITY MARKET IGNORING INFLATION AT THE MOMENT, AT WHAT POINT DO HIGHER BOND YIELDS NEED TO REAWAKEN THE CONCERN THAT OTHER RISK AS A BABY SHOULD BE MOVING IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE BOND MARKET? >> THE ANSWER IS 4.7% ON OUR ESTIMATES.

9:16 4.50 PERCENT, A THING NORTH OF THAT ON THE 10 YEAR. ONE THING THAT WE'VE ALWAYS GOT TO REMEMBER THE BOND MARKET WITH RISK ASSETS OVERALL, THE RELATIONSHIP IS HIGHLY NONLINEAR. IT DOESN'T MATTER, HIGHER YIELDS DON'T MATTER UNTIL THEY ARE THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS. WHICH SOUNDS VERY STUPID BUT BASICALLY IT IS NOT A RELATIONSHIP WHERE YOU SAY BOND YIELDS ARE UP FIVE BASIS POINTS, THEREFORE EQUITIES NEED TO SUFFER. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON NUMBER ONE, WHAT KIND OF LEVEL THERE IS WHERE IT REALLY STARTS STOKING FEARS IN RISK ASSETS OVERALL AND DEPENDS ON THE VELOCITY NOT ONLY ON ONE DAY,

10:03 BUT OVER A MONTH. UNTIL THEN, WE CAN THOROUGHLY IGNORE IT. >> I REALLY WANT TO SQUEEZE THIS IN, YOU ALSO WROTE THAT IRONICALLY, TARIFFS TO BE THE NEXT BULLISH CATALYST. WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT? >> MY DESPERATE GERMAN ATTEMPT AT BEING FUNNY, IT'S NOT THAT. IT'S SLIGHTLY MORE SOPHISTICATED. AROUND TARIFFS, AROUND THE NIGHT OF JULY THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF HEDGES, A LOT OF CONCERN AROUND THAT. WE SUDDENLY HAD A NEW DEADLINE REINSTATED.

10:49 LET'S NOT FORGET THAT THIS WHOLE TARIFF ISSUE, PARTICULARLY THE DEADLINES, THEY ARE NOT SET IN STONE. THEY ARE NOT MANDATED BY LAW, ABSOLUTELY NOT. THERE'S NOTHING IN THE WAY THAT IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO WE COULD SEE THE ADMINISTRATION SAY WE ARE HAVING REALLY GREAT NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHINA, THE EUROPEAN UNION, WE JUST NEEDED MORE TIME. LET'S MAKE A NEW DEADLINE, OR MAYBE WE WON'T HAVE ANY DEADLINES. I'M TELLING MARKET PARTICIPANTS NOT TO WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT THE U.S.-CHINA THING. IT'S ACTUALLY NOT AS MUCH OF A DEADLINE PER SE.

11:36 PEOPLE PERHAPS ARE TAKING THE TWO LITERAL, ALMOST ECONOMICALLY INEVITABLE. REALLY IT IS A SELF-IMPOSED THING THAT COULD ACTUALLY JUST BE EXTENDED AND WE COULD AS A RESULT SEE THAT MOVE HIGHER. DANI: A BELATED CONGRATULATIONS, I SAW YOU ARE VOTED NUMBER ONE IS A MULTI-ASSET ANALYST. WELL-DESERVE. LOOKING FORWARD TO CHATTING AGAIN SOON. SOME OTHER TOP STORIES TRENDING THIS MORNING, STELLANTIS REPORTED A NET LOSS OF $2.3 BILLION IN THE FIRST ACT. RESTRUCTURING EXPENSES AND U.S. TARIFFS AT THE AUTOMAKER. NORTH AMERICAN SHIPMENTS FELL 25% IN THE SECOND QUARTER.

12:26 THE NEW CEO ATTEMPTING TO CLEAN HOUSE. ELSEWHERE, RYANAIR SAID IT WILL REQUIRE -- RECOVER MOST OF THE FARE DROP IT'S ALL LAST YEAR. IT DID CAUTION THAT SECOND-QUARTER INCREASES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE FIRST. TRAVEL DEMAND IS STRONG, BUT BY CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS AND OTHER CARRIERS. MICROSOFT SERVER SOFTWARE WAS EXPLOITED BY UNIDENTIFIED HACKERS. CYBERSECURITY AND INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY AGENCY SAID HACKERS ACCESSED FILESYSTEMS AND INTERNAL CONFIGURATIONS. MICROSOFT SAID IT RELEASED A NEW SECURITY CASH TO MITIGATE ACTIVE ATTACKS. COMING UP, THE E.U. PREPARES FOR NO DEAL WITH THE U.S.

13:12 THE WAS COMPETENT THEY CAN GET ONE DONE. -- THE U.S. IS STILL CONFIDENT THAT IT CAN GET ONE DONE. THAT IS COMING UP NEXT ON YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." ♪

15:43 >> I'M CONFIDENT WE WILL GET A DEAL DONE AND IT WILL BE GREAT FOR AMERICA BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT HAS THE BACK OF AMERICA. SO I THINK ALL THESE KEY COUNTRIES WILL FIGURE OUT IT IS BETTER TO OPEN THE MARKETS TO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THAN TO PAY A SIGNIFICANT TARIFF. DANI: 11 DAYS AWAY FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP'S AUGUST 1 TARIFF DEADLINE. BLOOMBERG REPORTING THAT THE EUROPEAN UNION IS PREPARING FOR A NO DEAL SCENARIO WITH THE U.S. FOR MORE, WE'RE JOINED BY OLIVER CROOK. THIS ALSO FOLLOWS OFF THE BACK OF FT REPORTING THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE LOOKING AT A TEAM PERCENT-20% BASELINE TARIFF FOR THE E.U. WHAT IS THE E.U. PLANNING RETURN?

16:28 >> WE DON'T KNOW AT WHAT LEVEL OF ASYMMETRY THE EUROPEANS ARE GOING TO RETALIATE ON THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. THAT IS GOING TO BE THE MAJOR CONVERSATION HAPPENING NOW BETWEEN ALL OF THE CAPITALS, THE MINISTERS AND LEADERS OF THESE COUNTRIES WHICH IS WHAT SORT OF BASELINE TARIFF RATE IS EUROPE A SICKLY HAVE TO RESPOND? ANOTHER WINDOW FOR TARIFFS IS GOING TO BE BETWEEN 10% AND 30% IN THE EVENT OF A NO DEAL BY AUGUST. THERE ARE SOME REPORTING THAT THAT NARROWS DOWN TO ABOUT 50%-20%. WILL THEY RETALIATE? WE KNOW FROM THE PRESIDENT ANY KIND OF RETALIATION OF 5% TARIFFS IT'S STACKED UP ON TOP OF WHATEVER THE U.S. HAS BEEN FORWARD, HOW HARDBALL THE PLAY, HOW MUCH STEAK DO YOU BRING TO THE CARROT?

17:20 I SPOKE EARLIER WITH THAT, HAVE A LISTEN TO WHAT THEY ARE SAYING ABOUT HAVE A TRADE WAR IS EVOLVING AND THEIR. VIEWOF IT >> WE HAVE TO STOP THIS UNCERTAINTY. ONCE THERE IS A DEAL, THE DEAL SHOULD BE THE DEAL. THEN WE CAN DEPLOY CAPITAL AGAIN BASED ON FACTS. MOST OF THE COMPANIES ARE NOT TRENDING AWAY FROM GLOBALIZATION. THEY ARE SIMPLY SAYING HOW CAN WE DIVERSIFY AND MAKE SURE WE ARE NOT TO DEPENDENT FROM ONE OR THE OTHER. >> TWO PERSPECTIVES, BASICALLY SAYING THAT A CERTAIN POINT, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES WORSE THAN A BAD DEAL BUT THE UNITED STATES, AND ON THE OTHER SIDE, HE IS SEEING A LOT MORE INTEREST FROM CLIENTS WHO ARE LOOKING FOR EUROPEAN ALTERNATIVES TO U.S. BANKS. THAT THIS IS ONE OF THE

18:09 BENEFITS, ONE OF THE SILVERLINING FOR SOME OF THE INSTABILITY WE'VE SEEN IN THE UNITED STATES. DANI: I RECOMMEND EVERYONE GOING ONTO THE TERMINAL TO LOOK AT THEM ON GERMANY'S INVESTMENT PUSH. THANK YOU SO MUCH, THIS IS OLIVER CROOK. COMING UP, THE JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER TRIES TO BUY TIME AFTER YET ANOTHER ELECTION SETBACK. WE ARE GOING TO DISCUSS THAT COMING UP NEXT AND THE RALLY FOLLOWING THAT ELECTION. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

21:45 ♪ DANI: YOU'RE WATCHING "BLOOMBERG BRIEF" I'M DANI BURGER IN NEW YORK. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE FRONT PAGES THIS MORNING. FIRST UP, MEMBERS OF CONGRESS FROM BOTH PARTIES SAY THEY WANT TO SEE MORE FILES RELEASED ON THE EPSTEIN CASE. DAYS AFTER THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT ASKED A FEDERAL JUDGE TO UNSEAL GRAND JURY TESTIMONY, BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS SUGGESTED THE MOVE WAS INSUFFICIENT. NEXT UP ON THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, REPORTING THE TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT PRIVATELY LAID OUT HIS CASE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP FOR WHY HE SHOULDN'T FIRE FED CHAIR POWELL. HE SAID FIRING POWELL WAS UNNECESSARY BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL. TRUMP PUSHING BACK ON TRUTH SOCIAL SAYING HE KNOWS WHAT IS BEST AND THAT IS WHY STOCKMARKETS MARKETS ARE AT ALL-TIME HIGHS.

22:30 ON THE FINANCIAL TIMES, JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER SHEBA SO THAT HE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD JAPAN. THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY LOST ITS MAJORITY IN BOTH HOUSES OF PARLIAMENT. HE SPOKE AT A PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER THE ELECTION RESULTS. >> WE COME THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY RECEIVED A VERY SEVERE JUDGMENT BY THE PEOPLE IN YESTERDAY'S UPPER HOUSE ELECTION. AS THE HEAD OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY, I APOLOGIZE DEEPLY FOR THE UPPER HOUSE ELECTION RESULT. DANI: THE YEN STRENGTHENING AGAINST THE DOLLAR THIS MORNING, STRONGER BY ABOUT 6/10 OF 1%. JOINING US FOR MORE ON THE STORY OUT OF TOKYO IS BLOOMBERG'S ALICE FRENCH. ALICE, JUST HOW HISTORIC WAS

23:18 THIS LOSS FOR THE PARTY? >> SO LOOK, AS YOU MENTIONED THIS IS NOT A GOOD OUTCOME. PARTLY EXPECTED I THINK AFTER THEY LOST THE MAJORITY IN THE LOWER HOUSE IN OCTOBER. HIS RULING COALITION FAILING TO GET THOSE 50 SEATS THAT THEY NEED TO MAINTAIN A MAJORITY IN THE UPPER HOUSE. THAT MEANS IS GOING TO HAVE TO MOVE FORWARD AND RULED THE COUNTRY WITHOUT A MAJORITY IN EITHER HOUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-50'S. THIS IS A PRETTY HISTORIC DEFEAT. THIS COMES AMID A LOT OF DISCONTENT AMONGST VOTERS AROUND THE RISING COST OF LIVING, INFLATION, ETC. WE DID SEE THE YEN SLIGHTLY GAINING TODAY, MORE ON A KIND OF RISK OFF SAFE HAVEN MOVE AND

24:03 SOME BUYING BACK AFTER THE WEAKENING THAT WE SAW LAST YEAR AHEAD OF THE SELECTION ON CAUTION, BUT WE WILL REALLY SEE TOMORROW HOW MARKETS RESPOND TO THIS BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN A PUBLIC HOLIDAY HERE TODAY. DANI: MAYBE WOULD MORE LIQUIDITY COMES BACK YOU SEE A DIFFERENT REACTION BUT THE FACT IS THAT THERE IS NOW LESS THAN TWO WEEKS FOR A DEADLINE FOR THE U.S. ON JAPAN AND THE OTHER NATIONS. WHAT IMPACT HAS THE ELECTION HAD AS THIS TRADE TALKS CONTINUE ON? >> THE TIMING IS THE TRICKY. AN ISSUE WITH POSITION IS NOT GOING TO SET HIM UP WELL FOR PUSHING FORWARD WITH THOSE TRADE TALKS. WE KNOW THAT JAPAN'S CHIEF TRADE NEGOTIATOR HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH TO WASHINGTON MULTIPLE TIMES. WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN ANY CONCRETE OUTCOMES OF THOSE TRADE TALKS SO FAR.

24:50 I'VE BEEN SPEAKING TO PEOPLE HERE TODAY. THERE'S A LOT OF WORRY THAT THIS MAY WEAKEN JAPAN'S HAND EVEN FURTHER. WE KNOW JAPAN OBVIOUSLY IS VERY RELIANT ON EXPORTS PARTICULARLY IN THE AUTO SECTOR SO THERE IS A LOT OF WORRY AMONGST INVESTORS OF HOW THAT MIGHT IMPACT STOCKS, WHAT IT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE YEN. THIS IS ONLY GOING TO MAKE THINGS MORE DIFFICULT. DANI: IT PROBABLY MAKES THINGS MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE BOJ. HOW DO THEY HANDLE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW? >> THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT BOJ WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO PUSH FORWARD BECAUSE INTEREST RATE HIKES AT SOME POINT, BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS POLICY UNCERTAINTY PARTICULARLY AROUND GOVERNMENT DEBT IS LIKELY TO PERHAPS SLOW DOWN THE PACE OF THOSE HIKES. I WAS SPEAKING TO SOME PEOPLE

25:37 TODAY SAYING THEY WERE LOOKING FOR AT LEAST ONE HEIGHT BY THE END OF THE YEAR AND NOW THE POSSIBILITY OF NO HIKES FOR THE REST OF 2025 HAS GOT HIGHER. GOVERNMENT SPENDING WAS A REALLY BIG FOCUS OF THE SELECTION. THE OPPOSITION PARTIES THAT HAVE GAINED TRACTION IN THIS VOTE, SEVERAL OF THEM PUSHING FOR TAX CUTS TO THE CONSUMPTION TAX, CONCERNS OVER HOW THE GOVERNMENT WILL FUND THAT, CALLED FOR MORE DEFENSE SPENDING. IT'S REALLY CASTING A LOT OF DOUBT OVER THE OUTLOOK FOR THE BOJ AND FOR FISCAL POLICY IN GENERAL. DANI: THANK YOU FOR THAT EXCELLENT UPDATE. AS WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, THE STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING, JUST UNDER 1.50. COMING UP, LACK OF CONVICTION LINGERS IN MARKETS. WE CATCH UP WITH AMY WAS

26:22 SILVERMAN WHO OUTLINES WHERE THE HEDGES ARE AND ARE NOT. SHE JOINS COMING UP NEXT. ♪

29:42 ♪ DANI: GOOD MORNING, I'M DANI BURGER WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON THIS MONDAY MORNING. EUROPE PARIS FOR A FIGHT. LESS THAN TWO WEEKS INTO THE U.S. TRADE DEADLINE. THE E.U. GETS READY TO PUSH BACK. JAPAN'S PRIME MINISTER VOWS TO STAY ON TO NEGOTIATE TARIFFS DESPITE HIS PARTY'S HISTORIC ELECTION DAY LOSS. AND YEAR OF KICKS OFF A BUSY EARNINGS WEEK. STELLANTIS TAKES A MAJOR HIT. THEY TECH IS ON DECK IN THE U.S. AND INTO THAT TECH EARNINGS SEASON, BOTH ALPHABET AND TESLA REPORT ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, 20% THE MARKET BY MARKET CAP. THEY BARELY MOVED ON FRIDAY, BUT HERE WE GO AGAIN, IF WE HOLD ONTO THESE LEVELS, WE WILL HIT ANOTHER ALL-TIME RECORD

30:29 TODAY. FOR THIS TREASURY MARKET, PROBABLY PART OF THE REASON YOU'RE SEEING SMALL CAPS RALLY IS BECAUSE IT IS A TREASURY RALLY. OFF THE BACK OF SOME SIZABLE MOODS YESTERDAY, RATHER, LAST WEEK, THAT INDEPENDENCE, HAWKISH DETAILS COMING FROM THE LATEST CPI. ALL OF THOSE HELPING TO PUSH DEALS AROUND 5%. SOME OF THE CURVE STEEPENING EASES OFF TODAY. WITH LOOK AT SOME OF THE STOCKS MOVING IN THE PREMARKET. WITH THAT IS VALERIE. >> LET'S START WITH A CHECK ON STELLANTIS THAT YOU DID MENTION. SHARES ARE DOWN NEARLY 2%. THEY CAME OUT SIMPLE LUMINARY RESULT FOR THE FIRST HALF DETAILING A LOSS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR. $2.3 BILLION LOSS.

31:16 THERE WAS SOME COLOR ABOUT AN IMPAIRMENT CHARGE. THEY ALSO HAD SOME COLOR ABOUT THEIR SHIPMENTS TO NORTH AMERICA. SECOND QUARTER SHIPMENTS OF DROP BY 25% AS THIS COMPANY CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH TRUMP'S AUTO TARIFFS. LET'S MOVE ONTO OTHER COMPANIES THAT ARE GOING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE S&P 500. THIS IS A BIG WIN FOR THE PAYMENTS COMPANY THAT OWNS CASH APP AND SQUARE. UP NEARLY 10% ON THE NEWS THAT IT WILL BE REPLACING HESS IN THE S&P 500. THIS COMES AFTER CHEVRON ACQUIRED HESS ON FRIDAY. THAT SUCCESSFUL ACQUISITION LED TO THEM BEING DELISTED AND BLOCKED WILL BE ADDED TO THE S&P 500 EFFECTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. SOME STOCKS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS MORNING, ONE OF THEM IS VERIZON.

32:07 SHARES ARE TRADING IN THE GREEN AND ONE TO LEAVE YOU HUNGRY, DOMINO'S PIZZA ALSO REPORTING BEFORE THE BELL. DANI: NEVER TOO EARLY FOR A SLICE OF PIZZA. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. AMY SILVERMAN OF CAPITAL MARKETS DOES SEE MORE ROOM FOR THEM TO GRIND HIGHER WRITING SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING SUGGESTS A DRAMATIC LACK OF CONVICTION REMAINS BUT THAT ALSO MEANS IF THINGS COME IN BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED, THERE IS MORE ROOM FOR INVESTORS TO GO JUMPING INTO THE POOL. APT METAPHOR FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WISH THAT THEY WERE AT A POOL INSTEAD OF AT THE DESK TRADING THESE MARKETS. EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM WE WERE TALKING TO MAX KETTNER WHO SAID

32:54 THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK STRETCHED AND IT IS CONCERNING HIM. WHERE ARE YOU SEEING THAT LACK OF CONVICTION AND MAYBE MORE UPSIDE TO COME? >> IT'S ACTUALLY EXACTLY THAT COMMENT. I WOULD CALL THIS A VERY RELUCTANT RALLY. FOLKS KNOW THAT VALUATION IS STRETCHED. GIVEN EVERYTHING THAT IS OVERHANGING, AND BECAUSE OF THAT, WE SEEM KIND OF THIS DICHOTOMY PERHAPS BETWEEN THE RETAIL INVESTOR BASE. THERE'S BEEN MORE DRAGGED TO THAT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR BASE BUT YOU HAVE TWO BIG EARNINGS THIS WEEK IN THE MAG 7. JUMPING INTO THE POOL IF YOU WILL BECAUSE WE STILL HAVE THIS PROBLEM AT HIGH BENCHMARK

33:41 CONCENTRATIONS. U.S. AND INVESTOR MUST PARTICIPATE AS WELL. DANI: THIS IS INTERESTING, THIS IDEA THAT IT IS UNCERTAINTY. A LOT OF THE CONVERSATION HAS BEEN THAT IT IS COMPLACENCY, A MARKET THAT SADLY DOESN'T CARE. ARE YOU SAYING THAT IS THE WRONG NARRATIVE, INITIATIVE MARKET WHERE THINGS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN SO IT IS KIND OF NERVOUS TO RELATE THAT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER? >> I THINK IT IS FAIR FOR PEOPLE TO CHARACTERIZE COMPLACENCY WHEN YOU HAVE THE VICKS SUB 17 HANDLES. THE ISSUE HAS BEEN THAT WHEN YOU HAVE BEEN DOING THESE CONSISTENT SYSTEMATIC HEDGES IN THE MARKET CONTINUES TO GRIND UP, IT IS VERY HARD TO CONTINUE TO HOLD THEM.

34:28 THAT'S NOT COMPLACENCY, THAT'S JUST THE DIFFICULTY IN BEING TACTICAL ABOUT THE HEDGING. I THINK ONE REASON THAT WE SEE TERM STRUCTURE OPTIONS HEIGHTENED IS BECAUSE NEAR TERM WE ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT WE HAVEN'T BEEN PLACING THOSE HEDGES WELL. LONGER TERM WE ARE STILL QUITE WORRIED. THE SECOND PART OF THAT AS WE ARE GOING TO AUGUST, COULD SUDDENLY SPIKED TO 65. I WOULD BE WARY OF THAT GOING FORWARD. >> I WOULD SAY THE FIRST IS BECAUSE HAVE THE MEAT IS MADE

35:14 MATTERS BECAUSE THE CONCENTRATION RISK IS SO HIGH IN THESE STOCKS. TO GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE, WE HAVE BOTH GOOGLE AND TESLA REPORTING. OBVIOUSLY LARGE FACTORS IN THE WEIGHT OF THE S&P. THEY ALSO MAKE A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE COMMUNICATIONS ETF AND IF YOU LOOK AT VOLATILITY SPREAD, THAT IS ACTUALLY AT A FIVE-YEAR HIGH. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE DISPERSION OF THE MARKET, THAT DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE INDEX LEVEL OPTION PRICES AND THE SINGLE STOCK, YOU CAN OFTEN USE THE ETF AS A PROXY WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THESE MAJOR WEEKS WHEN A LOT OF THE WEIGHT OF A CERTAIN ETF WILL REPORT AS WELL. DANI: I THOUGHT YOU FLAG IT REALLY

36:03 INTERESTING ONE, THE REGIONAL BANKS SAYING YOU'RE SEEING PEOPLE MAKE DECISIONS BUT IT IS NOT LIKE A WILD ANIMAL SPIRITS RISK ON ENVIRONMENT. WHAT HAS BEEN YOUR READ OF EARNING SO FAR, BOTH IN WHAT WE FIRST FROM COMPANIES AND THE MARKET REACTION TO THAT? >> THEY WERE ACTUALLY HAVING THIS CONVERSATION ABOUT NETFLIX GOING INTO EARNINGS. IF YOU JUST RECALL, THIS WAS ONE THAT ON THE HEADLINES EVERYTHING LOOKED GREAT AND IT WAS A VERY MUTED, VERY UNDERWHELMING STOCK REACTION. AND WHEN YOU HAD PRICING COMING INTO IT, IT WAS BASICALLY PRICING ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE MEDIAN MOVE. SO ONE THING I WOULD SAY IS I THINK WHAT IS HAPPENING IS YOU

36:48 HAVE ALL THESE HISTORICAL MOVES THAT WERE TO SOME DEGREE PANDEMIC-BAKED IN, SO THIS MAGNITUDE LOOK VERY HIGH. NETFLIX REMOVED THEIR SUBSCRIBER NUMBERS, SO THAT WAS UNIQUE TO IT. IT IS STILL WAIT AND SEE, IT IS STILL A LITTLE BIT EARLY IN TERMS OF TARIFFS. EVEN THE MANAGEMENT TEAMS THEMSELVES ARE STILL WAITING TO HEAR WITH THE FINAL NEGOTIATIONS ARE SO IT KIND OF DOESN'T SURPRISE ME THAT YOU'RE GETTING THESE UNDERWHELMING NUMBERS GOING INTO THESE EARNINGS EVENTS WHEN THERE IS SO MUCH WE DON'T KNOW. DANI:DANI: SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE SAID THE BAR IS REALLY LOW, ALL THESE COMPANIES ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO SURPRISE TO THE UPSIDE. WHY HASN'T THAT PLAYED OUT, BECAUSE THE BAR HAD BEEN LOW OR WAS IT NOT LOW ENOUGH?

37:35 WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT SENTIMENT GOING INTO THE SEASON? >> I WOULD SAY IT IS STILL EARLY. FINANCIALS OBVIOUSLY KICKS OFF THE BEGINNINGS OF EARNINGS, BUT WE HAVEN'T REALLY HAD THE MEAT IN TERMS OF THE CONCENTRATION. I DO THINK IT IS INTERESTING WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE WEEK AHEAD, THE PRICING YOU SEEN IN TERMS OF SENTIMENT OPTIONS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY BEARISH. AT LEAST IN THE PAST, IT'S BEEN INCREDIBLY BULLISH. GRANTED, NVIDIA REPORTS LATE, BUT YOU'RE NOT SEEING THAT AT ALL. YOU'RE SEEING VERY BEARISH SENTIMENT.

38:20 I THINK IT SPEAKS TO THIS RELUCTANT RALLY ASPECT AND THEN THE SECONDARY ASPECT OF THE WAIT AND SEE. I THINK WE WOULD HAVE SEEN THAT EXUBERANCE ALREADY AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT. DANI: THERE WAS SOME HOPE THAT YOU WOULD GET A REAL ROTATION WHERE YOU SAW MOMENTS TO REALLY SELLOFF IN FAVOR OF VALUE. IS IT YOUR EXPECTATION THAT THAT DISCONTINUES IN TERMS OF MOMENTUM, AI, TECH, THE KIND OF MARKET LEADERS CONTINUING TO LEAD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS? >> I JOKE THAT IS THE LORI CALLISON INDICATOR. SHE IS THE PRO ON SMALL CAPS. IF SHE HASN'T TURNED ON THE LIST, I DON'T KNOW WHY I WOULD, EITHER. A LOT OF WHAT I'VE LEARNED FROM WORKING WITH HER IS THE HIGH SENSITIVITY TO RATES, AND SINCE

39:09 WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE PRICING IT KIND OF LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE CUTS THAT WE POTENTIALLY WOULD HAVE HAVE BEEN DELAYED, THAT'S JUST NOT GOOD FOR THE STORY. YOU DID SEE THIS HUGE MAGNITUDE SHIFT BETWEEN MOMENTUM AND VALUE, BUT JUST AS QUICKLY, THAT SNAPPED BACK. IF WE CAN'T GET THE RATE STORY STRAIGHT, WE CAN'T NECESSARILY GET THE SMALL CAPS THREE STRAIGHT. THAT IS WHAT IS BEING PRICED INTO THE FACTOR ROTATION. DANI: WONDERFUL TO KICK OFF THE WEEK WITH YOU. LET'S NOW GET YOU SOME OTHER TOP STORIES THAT ARE TRENDING ON THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. ISRAEL WARNS THAT IT WOULD MOVE THE FIRST TIME INTO A TOWN IN THE HEART OF GAZA AND ACCUSES HAMAS OF STALLING CEASE-FIRE

39:54 TALKS. THE PREVIOUS TRUCE ENDED IN MAY. A HUGE INVESTMENT PUSH FROM GERMANY'S PRIVATE SECTOR, THE COUNTRY'S TOP FIRMS UNVEILED AT LEAST $116 BILLION WORTH OF NEW PROJECTS TO UPLIFT THE COUNTRY OUT OF STAGNATION. DEUTSCHE BANK'S CEO SPOKE ON THIS MOVE ON BLOOMBERG. >> I THINK IT'S QUITE IMPRESSIVE WHAT WE'VE COLLECTED OVER A COUPLE OF MONTHS OF INVESTMENTS. 61 COMPANIES, AND TO BE HONEST I THINK MORE TO COME. BUT IT SHOWS WHAT THE SENTIMENT IS AND THAT WE HAVE A CHANCE. DANI: MICROSOFT SERVER SOFTWARE WAS EXPLOITED BY UNIDENTIFIED HACKERS. THE U.S. CYBERSECURITY AND INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY AGENCY SAID HACKERS ACCESSED FILESYSTEMS AND INTERNAL CONFIGURATIONS. MICROSOFT SAID IT HAS RELEASED

40:40 A NEW SECURITY BADGE TO MITIGATE ACTIVE ATTACKS. AND COMING UP, DEAL OR NO DEAL? TRADE UNCERTAINTY RISES AS THE U.S. READIES FOR A NO DEAL SCENARIO WITH WASHINGTON. WE WILL HAVE THE LATEST, NEXT. ♪

43:27 DANI: YOU'RE WATCHING "BLOOMBERG BRIEF" AND LOOKING LIVE AT THE PRINCIPAL ROOM. COMING UP LATER TODAY, AN INTERVIEW WITH THE VERIZON CEO AT 10:00 A.M. NEW YORK TIME, 3:00 P.M. IN LONDON. >> I'M CONFIDENT WE WILL GET A DEAL DONE. IT WILL BE GREAT FOR AMERICA BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT HAS THE BACK OF AMERICA. SO I THINK ALL THESE KEY COUNTRIES WILL FIGURE OUT IT IS BETTER TO OPEN THEIR MARKETS TO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THAN TO PAY A SIGNIFICANT TARIFF. DANI: LESS THAN TWO WEEKS UNTIL A TARIFF DEADLINE SET BY THE WHITE HOUSE. AT THE SAME TIME THE EUROPEAN UNION ISN'T AS CONFIDENT IN THE TERMS OF A POTENTIAL NEW DEAL. ENVOYS SET TO MEET EARLIER THIS

44:14 WEEK TO DISCUSS HOW TO DEAL WITH THE U.S. IF A DEAL CANNOT BE REACHED. FOR MORE, WE'RE JOINED BY BRENDAN MURRAY LEADS ARE GLOBAL TRADE COVERAGE. WHERE EXACTLY DO NEGOTIATIONS STAND BETWEEN THE E.U. AND U.S. AT THIS MOMENT? >> THE EUROPEAN UNION TRADE NEGOTIATING TEAM DELIVERED A PRETTY STARK MESSAGE TO OFFICIALS IN BRUSSELS ON FRIDAY. THAT WAS THAT THEY SAW THAT THE U.S.'S NEGOTIATING POSITION WITH HARDENING UP. THERE WASN'T MUCH FLEXIBILITY IN THE TARIFF RATE, THE RECIPROCAL TARIFF RATE THAT CURRENTLY STANDS AT A THREAT OF 30%, THE EUROPEAN UNION WANTS THAT TO BE 10%, BASICALLY RIGHT AT THE BASELINE, AND THERE WAS SOME OTHER TARIFF RELIEF THAT THE EUROPEANS ARE LOOKING TO

45:03 GET ASSURANCES ON, AND THOSE ARE FORTHCOMING AS WELL. WE HEARD THE COMMERCE SECRETARY SAY HE'S CONFIDENT IN THE FACT THAT THEY WILL GET A DEAL, BUT HE DIDN'T SAY THE DEAL WAS GOING TO BE GREAT FOR EUROPE, HE SAID THAT DEAL WAS GOING TO BE GREAT FOR AMERICA. THE EUROPEANS ARE INCREASINGLY LOOKING AT THIS LIKE A SCENARIO THAT'S GOING TO BE OUT OF BALANCE, NOT IN THEIR FAVOR, AND THEY ARE LOOKING TO TAKE WHAT NEXT STEPS THEY MIGHT GO DOWN IN TERMS OF RETALIATION AGAINST AMERICAN EXPORTS. DANI: WHAT MIGHT THOSE RETALIATIONS LOOK LIKE? >> THEY HAVE ABOUT 100 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF U.S. PRODUCTS TARGETED FROM BOEING AIRPLANES TO BOURBON AND SOYBEANS, KIND OF ALL-AMERICAN TYPE PRODUCTS THAT THEY COULD INITIALLY START OFF WITH.

45:51 THEY ALSO HAVE SOMETHING CALLED AN ANTI-COERCION INSTRUMENT, WHICH IS SORT OF A NUCLEAR OPTION. THEY COULD START GOING AFTER U.S. TECH COMPANIES. THERE'S NOT AN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THAT SHOULD BE USED AT THIS STAGE, BUT THE CALLS FOR THAT INSTRUMENT TO BE USED ARE GROWING, AND THAT IS IN THE ALL-OUT TRANSATLANTIC TRADE WAR SCENARIO. WE'RE DEFINITELY NOT THERE YET, BUT WE ONLY HAVE TWO WEEKS LEFT TO PUT THIS DEAL TOGETHER BEFORE THOSE TARIFFS TAKEN ON AUGUST 1. DANI: TWO SHORT WEEKS. SIDE THE E.U., WHO ELSE ARE LOOKING OUT FOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL MOVEMENT AHEAD OF THAT? >> WE HAVE REPORTED THAT THE SOUTH KOREANS ARE IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. JAPAN STILL THINKS JUST OFF OF

46:37 THE UPPER HOUSE ELECTIONS IS STILL THINKING HE CAN TRY TO GET A DEAL. TAIWAN IS ALSO IN THE NEXT. INDIA IS STILL IN PLAY. ALL OF THESE, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN COUNTRIES ARE LOOKING TO GET THE RECIPROCAL TARIFF RATE SOMEWHERE AROUND 20%. INDONESIA'S GOT 19%. IF ALL OF INDONESIA CAN GET THEIRS TO BE AROUND 20, THAT SEEMS LIKE A NUMBER THAT THEY COULD ALL LIVE WITH THAT WOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH DISPARITY REGIONALLY. BETWEEN THE EUROPEANS, THE SWISS ALSO HAVE A DEAL ON TRUMP'S DESK THAT HASN'T BEEN APPROVED YET, SO THERE ARE A NUMBER OF THESE IN THE WORKS THAT COULD COME TOGETHER BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE MONTH. DANI: THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THAT UPDATE. ANOTHER SECTOR WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS MORNING,

47:23 AIRLINES FROM EARNINGS TO OTHER ISSUES. ALASKA AIR HAS RESUMED FLIGHTS AFTER TEMPORARILY GROUNDING ITS FLEET LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWING AN I.T. OUTAGE. WE ALSO LEARNED THAT DELTA HAD RECENTLY MOVED AGGRESSIVELY TO AVOID COLLIDING WITH A B-52 JET. FOR MORE, WE'RE JOINED BY BLOOMBERG'S MANAGING EDITOR FOR AVIATION IN SPACE. GOOD MORNING TO YOU. A LOT OF THINGS GOING ON HERE. IS THERE A COMMONALITY OF THINGS UNDERPINNING THESE POTENTIAL MISTAKES THAT OF COURSE WERE AVOIDED, IS THERE AN ISSUE OF A LACK OF INVESTMENT, OR IS SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON HERE? >> THAT'S USUALLY THE QUESTION THAT DOES COME UP. THE SOFTWARE THAT IS BEING USED, WHAT IF THE STATE OF THE PERSONNEL? REFERRED QUITE A LOT ABOUT THIS

48:12 SINCE THE MIDAIR COLLISION IN JANUARY, AS THE U.S. TRAFFIC CONTROL PROPERLY STAFFED, IS THERE TOO MUCH HUMAN ERROR, IS THERE AN ISSUE WITH SOFTWARE? THIS IS SOMETHING THAT ALASKA WILL HAVE TO TAKE A VERY HARD LOOK AT. THESE OUTAGES DON'T HAPPEN VERY OFTEN, BUT WHEN THEY DO THEY SERVE CHIP AWAY AT THE PUBLIC SENSE OF SAFETY AND THAT IS OBVIOUSLY AN IMPORTANT PART OF AVIATION. PEOPLE WANT TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT GETTING ON A PLANE, THEY WANT TO FEEL SAFE, THE TECHNOLOGY NOT JUST OF THE AIRCRAFT BUT ALSO EVERYTHING THAT SURROUNDS IT IS UP TO SNUFF AND OBVIOUSLY EVENTS LIKE THIS WITH ALASKA, YES IT WAS SHORT-LIVED BUT THAT DOESN’'T HELP. THE DELTA ISSUE, MIDAIR COLLISIONS OR WRONG WAY COLLISIONS, EXTREMELY RARE BUT WHEN THEY DO HAPPEN THEY CAN BE

48:58 ABSOLUTELY NEEDLE SO THIS WILL BE INVESTIGATED QUITE AGGRESSIVELY. TWO EVENTS THAT DON'T INSTILL A FAITH OF OPTIMISM IN THE INDUSTRY. DANI: ONE PLACE IN THE INDUSTRY THAT DEFINITELY HAS OPTIMISM, YOUTH AND LOOKING AT THEIR EARNINGS ALL MORNING. RYANAIR SEEING THEIR PROFIT MORE THAN DOUBLE. WHAT UNDERSCORE THAT STRONG DEMAND? >> QUITE SIMPLY, PEOPLE LIKE TO TRAVEL. RYANAIR HAS A HUGE NETWORK ACROSS EUROPE, EXPANDING INTO FAVORABLE MARKETS LIKE SCANDINAVIA, SOUTHERN EUROPE AND SPAIN. BUT THEY ARE ALSO BENEFITING TO SOME DEGREE FROM THE MISSTEPS AND THE MISFORTUNE OF SOME OF THEIR RIVALS.

49:45 THE HUNGARIAN LOW-COST RIVAL, THEY'VE HAD BIG ISSUES WITH AIRCRAFT BECAUSE OF THE ENGINES THAT THEY HAD TO TAKE OFF AND REPAIR. EASYJET HAS HAD SOME ISSUES WITH AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT RYANAIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SORT OF SIDESTEP TO A GREATER DEGREE, SO IT'S BOTH THE PRODUCT BUT ALSO SORT OF >> GOING ON IN THE BROADER INDUSTRY, AND THEY ALSO HAD THE ADVANTAGE OF BOEING AIRCRAFT COMING BACK INTO THEIR SYSTEM AT A GREATER CLIP THAT HAD REAL ISSUES ABOUT SIX MONTHS TO A YEAR AGO. THAT SEEMS TO BE BEHIND THE NOW. THEY ARE GETTING THE KIT THAT THEY NEED, GETTING THE LIFT. YOU SEE IT IN THE STOCK PRICE, A LOT OF ANALYSTS ARE UPGRADING THE FORECAST SAYING THIS IS EARLY IN THE FISCAL YEAR FOR THEM.

50:33 THERE'S UPSIDE HERE AND YOU CAN SEE IT IN THE STOCK, IT WAS UP 10% AT ONE POINT THIS MORNING. DANI: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THAT. IT MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY FIRST A LANTUS, REPORTING A BRUTAL FIRST HALF, A NEARLY $3 BILLION NET LOSS. RESTRUCTURING EXPENSES, U.S. TARIFFS ALL IMPACTING THE RESULTS. I MEAN, THESE ARE SOME REALLY UGLY NUMBERS. WHAT WAS DRIVING THEM? >> THIS VARIOUS THINGS AT PLAY HERE. THERE'S A LOT OF FOCUS ON U.S. TARIFFS AND CLEARLY PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS FOR THE VARIOUS ANNOUNCEMENTS IN THE FIRST PART

51:19 OF THE YEAR OF WHAT HE WOULD AND WOULDN'T DO ON THAT FRONT DIDN'T HELP. THE COMPANY ANNOUNCED TODAY, AND THIS WAS A PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT, A SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT, FIRST HALF EARNINGS ARE DUE ON JULY 29. THE TARIFF IMPACT WAS A NET IMPACT OF 300 MILLION EUROS, SO ABOUT $350 MILLION. BUT THERE'S MORE TO THE STORY. THERE'S BEEN A VERY DIFFICULT 2024 FOR THE COMPANY, AND THERE ARE TOUGH DECISIONS BEING MADE. INVESTMENTS THAT ARE BEING MOVED AROUND, REASSIGNED, AND A PRETTY BIG MOVE FROM THE FULL-FLEDGED PUSH INTO ELECTRIC VEHICLES THAT WAS WHAT DEFINED

52:09 THE ERA OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR INTO OTHER AREAS, NOTABLY HYBRID VEHICLES, CLOSURE OF PLANTS, DECISION TO DROP INVESTMENTS IN HYDROGEN. THIS IS REALLY THE FIRST STEP THE NEW CEO IS TAKING TO RESET EXPECTATIONS. REALLY RE-SHIFTING THE PRIORITIES HERE AT THE COMPANY AT A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FOR THE INDUSTRY. DANI: THAT'S FOR CERTAIN. THANK YOU SO MUCH. COMING UP, WE ARE GOING TO GET YOU SET UP FOR THE WEEK AHEAD INCLUDING SOME BIG MAG 7 EARNINGS ON DECK. THAT IS COMING UP NEXT ON YOUR TRADING DIARY. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

52:54 ♪

55:51 ♪ DANI: LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR YOUR TRADING WEEK. BIG TECH EARNINGS WILL BE KICKING OFF, TESLA AND ALPHABET WILL BOTH BE REPORTING ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WE GET INTEL REPORTING ON THURSDAY. ALSO ON THURSDAY WE WILL GET JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA. IN THE MEANTIME WITH LOOK AT SOME OF THE STOCKS IN THE PREMARKET BLOCK, ONE OF THEM A RALLY UNDERWAY JOINING THE S&P 500, UP 9.6%. IT WILL BE REPLACING HESS AFTER CHEVRON FINALLY SUCCESSFULLY BOUGHT THE COMPANY. PRICE TARGET IS THAT $14, TRADING JUST BELOW THAT. IT HAS ALSO REFUSED -- REFUTED, RATHER, AN FDA REQUEST BULLETS GENE THERAPY.

56:38 TESLA IS LEADING THE MAG 7 STOCKS, UP JUST UNDER 1.5%. IT WILL BE REPORTING EARNINGS LATER THIS WEEK AS YOU MENTIONED ON WEDNESDAY. A BIG EARNINGS WEEK, 20% OF THIS MARKET REPORTING ON MARKET CAP. A RALLY IS UNDERWAY AFTER SOME DECLINES, SOME STUPID -- STEEPENING. THAT IS IT FOR YOUR BRIEF. SURVEILLANCE TAKES THINGS FROM HERE.