衡晴慢慢聊｜买下全世界，真的更安全吗？你可能只是把成长稀释掉了

0:00 This program is only for education and communication, not investment advice. Investment is risky. Please make your own judgment. I now think of that pepper pie last weekend. I still think it's a bit exaggerated. You mean the place that I started to doubt my life? Yeah, the night market on Raohe Street. I thought we

0:49 were just going for a walk. But when we got in, there were so many people that I felt like I wasn't going to the night market. I was being pushed away by the night market. You kept saying that you just wanted to buy one. But in the end, you bought pepper pancakes, stewed ribs, and fried goose. And that cup of milk you said was just for a bite. 欸,夜市不能用理性規劃啦。 夜市就是看到什麼都覺得,來都來了。 哈哈,來都來了。 大概是人類消費失控的四個字。 對,而且我發現夜市很神奇。 明明每一攤都說自己必吃,走到最後你會很混亂。 這個也想吃,那個也想吃,最後吃到撐,反而不知道哪一個真的好吃。 這跟投資很像。

1:37 哇塞,你連夜市都能繞回投資。 不是硬繞,是真的像。 Many people buy investment products like this. This country buys a little, that market buys a little, this fund sounds good, that ETF is also very safe, and the final combination looks very rich. In fact, you don't know what it is helping you. Okay, although this is a series of talks, I just cut to the point when you talked about this. A few days ago, a friend told me that he finally started investing. I said it's good, what to buy? 他說他買全球指數,因為這樣就是買下全世界。 你看,你也中招了。 我知道你會這樣講,但老實說, 買下全世界這句話真的很有安全感耶。 It sounds like I don't choose a

2:23 country, a company, or a business, I buy the whole planet. Yes, it sounds smart. You mean, is it actually not smart? I'm not saying it's stupid, I'm saying it's too comfortable. It's a problem if it's too comfortable. It's always a problem if it's too comfortable in investment. Because you would think that you didn't make any mistakes, that you were very scattered, that you were very rational, that you weren't greedy. But after 20 years, you would see that money is growing so slowly. You are very hurtful. But many people are like this. They are not losing money, nor are they being cheated. and didn't buy any strange products. He just chose something that ran very slow for a long time and used "I'm very scattered" to comfort himself. Wait a minute. It's not unreasonable for people to buy global index. He would say that the United

3:12 States is very strong now, but the United States can't always be strong. "Technical stocks are very popular now, but they will also be in the bubble. I will buy the whole world, at least I won't be pressed to the wrong side." In fact, the most dangerous part of this sentence is that it seems to be very neutral. It really is like the answer of a mature adult. But investment is not a school exam. It's not that you write a comprehensive answer and the teacher gives you a high score. Investment is that you put the money out and ask him if he can help me solve the problem in the future. The problem of retirement, the problem of school tuition, the problem of child tuition. 工作被取代的问题,如果它解决不了,那它再中立也没用。 所以重点不是全球指数会不会完蛋,重点是它够不够力。 对,很多人把不太会完蛋自动翻译成适合我,这个翻译很有问题。

4:02 那你以前有这样想过吗?还是你一开始就这么坚定? 我以前也觉得全球分散很合理啊,刚开始学投资的时候,谁不喜欢这种答案? It sounds like a good deal to buy the whole world. Later, I really went to see the long-term revenge gap and I felt it was wrong. It's not a little bit worse, it's so bad that you can't pretend not to see it. The gap you're talking about is the VT, SPY, QQQ. Yes, it's about the performance of the past 10 to 20 years. Compared to QQQ, Nasdaq 100, which is a global fund, the gap is really big. It's not that VT didn't grow, it did. But the problem is, your lifetime is also a cost. We previously talked about SPY in our episode on the investment translation of EP4055. Many people think SPY is very stable,

4:52 very classic, and very good. But if you are still in the stage of accumulating assets, it is too stable. Sometimes it will block your life speed. 嗯,那集大家可以回去看。 它不是說SPY不好,而是提醒你, 穩健這兩個字,要看你站在人生哪個階段講。 如果你已經有很多資產,穩一點當然沒問題。 可是如果你還在追資產成長, 那太穩,可能就變成另一個問題。 不過你剛才說生命時間也是成本。 这个我觉得蛮重要的。 你讲白一点,不然很多人可能会觉得, 反正都有涨,慢一点又怎样。 好,我讲白一点。 你30岁买一个标的,到50岁发现别人已经跑很远 你还在慢慢爬。

5:39 那时候你不能回去跟30岁的自己说, 诶,我们换一台车吧。 To put it simply, the world's industrial chain is not even. The United States is at the forefront. It has brands, tech companies, capital markets, cloud, AI, chip design, and platforms. Taiwan has been doing well in recent years because of the American AI supply chain. Taiwan's machines, servers, and hardware are all tied to the US tech market. But when you buy global products, you don't just buy these. You also buy a lot of slow-growing, low-core industries. 所以不是全世界不好,是你把強的、弱的、快的、慢的全部攪在一起。 你理解得很對。

6:25 有時候分散不是降低風險,有時候只是把好的東西稀釋掉。 可是觀眾一定會說,那巴菲特不是一直講標普500嗎? VOO Spy不就是很經典的選擇嗎? 巴菲特當然可以講標普500,但你要想,他是誰?你是誰? 這句好像有點嗆。 It should be a bit of a joke. Buffett has hundreds of billions of dollars. His life is completely different from ordinary people. Even if he is a little bit conservative, a little bit low on income, it will not affect his life. What about you? You may have to work for 20 or 30 years. You have to raise a family. You have to retire. You have to face the inflation. You have the impact of future AI on work. So you take a super rich late-age proposal and put it directly on an ordinary

7:15 family that still needs to grow, this thing itself is a question mark. It's not that Buffett is wrong, it's his answer, not necessarily our answer. Yes, there is no answer in this world for everyone. Some things are medicine to others, and to you it may be just sugar water. It's very safe to drink, but it can't cure your disease. Okay, let's go back to QQQ. You've been emphasizing NASDAQ 100, but many people think of bubble when they hear about technology stocks, especially with AI so hot. Huyda, Weiruan, Google, these names are in the news every day. Everyone is afraid that they have grown too much, and it's the next bubble on the Internet. This is reasonable. I won't say that technology stocks won't fall. NASDAQ is very ugly when it

8:03 falls. Really, don't beautify it. So you're not saying buying QQQ is comfortable all the way? This is not a topic for one or two days. AI is not just a popular concept. 你觉得AI这件事跟以前的科技革命不一样? 不一样,以前很多科技变化是东西取代东西, 手机取代家用电话,数码相机取代底片, 串流取代DVD,人还在那里。 但AI麻烦的地方是,它不是只换工具,

8:49 它会开始碰到人的工作。 这个真的有点冷。 所以我才说,普通人不能只想我有一份工作就好。 You may think that you can work hard, save money, and buy a stable fund to live a stable life. But that's not the case in the future. Many middle-class jobs will be compressed. Your wage growth may not be as good as your assets. If you have no assets at all, you will be more and more tired of working. So you mean investing in American technology is not just to make money faster, but also to make at least a part of yourself stand on the side of change. Yes, you can't have everyone open an AI company, you can't have everyone write models, but you can buy and

9:36 own a basket of assets from these companies. This is what the index fund is interesting about. 你不用猜誰最後贏。 你不用每天研究個股。 你買的是一個系統。 可是這裡我想插一句。 如果有人聽到這裡, 馬上熱血起來 說,好,我明天把VT VOO SPY 全部賣掉,全部衝QQQ 這樣也不對吧? 當然不對。 你看,這就是人最麻煩的地方。 不是太保守,就是太激動。 對。 Not sleeping in the global index, but full of technology stocks. Yes, you have to ask yourself a few annoying questions. When will this money be used? Can you put it on for 10 years, 20 years? Will you sell it when

10:23 it drops by 30%? Do you have cash at home? Will your wife, children, mortgage, and living expenses force you to sell stocks at the worst time? These questions sound very unromantic. Investment is not romantic. What is really romantic is that you are still in the market after more than ten years. and the middle part was not washed out. Then it's about defense. Many people will say, "I know the stock will fall, so I have to pay the bonds." Especially long-term US bonds, TLT. There are also some companies' bonds, Pexi bonds, Li Zuan likes to say, "Win-win-win-win." This place really needs to be careful. Many people feel safe when they hear bonds. But bonds are also divided into many kinds. Long-term bonds have a high risk of interest rates. Once the interest rate changes, it will fall, not kidding. You thought you bought a safe deposit,

11:11 but it fell. That's very awkward. The stock fell, the bonds fell. You wanted someone to help you, but the other party fell. Yes, that's the feeling. So I don't like to use long-term bonds, company bonds, and bonds with very complicated names to be the core defense layer of an ordinary family. What are the defense layers? Cash, and very short-term national bonds, 美国像SQV,BIL,BOX,台湾像00865B或者货币市场基金。 对,这个东西不要想得太神,它的任务不是帮你报复,它的任务就是在市场烂的时候帮你不要死。 You speak very directly. Because cash is like this. You think it's boring. When you're

11:58 in a bull market, you think it's a burden. Others are all growing. Your cash seems stupid. But when the market really falls, work is unstable, and your family needs money, this cash is your breathing space. I think breathing space is more human than defense assets. Yes. As long as you have breathing space, you won't be forced to sell stocks at the worst time. 投資最慘的不是跌,最慘的是你知道不該賣,但你不得不賣。 這個我真的很認同,因為很多人平常都說自己長期投資, 但長期投資四個字是在賬戶上漲的時候講的, 真的跌下來,才知道你是不是真的長期。 所以我們才常講配置不是為了把東西弄複雜, 是為了讓你活得過波動。 Can you talk

12:46 about 433 here? Don't talk too much, or you'll become a class teacher. It's good to talk simply. 433's spirit is to separate attack and defense. Some put 100 Nasdaq, such as QQQ, 00662. Some use 2x Nasdaq, such as QLD, 00670L. and then keep some cash or short-term debt, such as SGOV, BIL, BOX, 00865B. But the proportion is not the focus today. The focus is that you don't throw all the money in and then use your willpower to deposit. Yes, willpower is very unreliable. You eat well and sleep well today, and you feel very brave. When the market drops by 30%, your children's tuition fees will be raised again, and you will not be brave. This is too real. So the configuration

13:34 is not a mathematical body. 它是人性管理。 你要承認自己會怕, 要承認家裡會出事 要承認市場不會配合你的計劃 這樣你才會留現金 才不會把自己逼到沒有退路。 那如果有人說 我就是不想管這麼多 我買VT,睡得著,你會怎麼回? 我會說,可以啊, 但你要知道你在換什麼, You may feel more comfortable, less fluctuating, and less stress. But you may also give up on long-term growth. If you know the price and accept it, that's fine. If you're afraid, you don't know the price. You just listen to others say that the most safe way to spread the world is to buy it. It's like ordering a meal. You can order a light porridge or a small dish. But

14:20 you can't ask after you finish eating, why I don't feel satisfied with eating steak. Yes, this is a great analogy. So in the end, it's not like everyone has to buy the same thing. Yes, what I'm most afraid of is that after the show, the audience only remembers one code, QQQ00662SQV00865B, and then they go back to copy it. This becomes a bookshelf. 疏降这个词很狠。 但就是这样,你不能抓着别人讲过的话当标准答案,你要知道它背后的逻辑,为什么是美国,为什么是科技,为什么不用偿债当防守,为什么短期要用的钱不能投资,为什么你要有现金,这些弄懂了,才是你的东西。 If the audience already has VT, VOO, SPY or Long-term bond, should they sell it

15:06 right away? No, not right away. I know many people want to process their accounts right away after watching the video, but investment should not be processed by emotion. You should list out what you bought first, what you are responsible for in your group, 如果你換掉它,你換成什麼? 換完以後,風險會不會更大? 你的現金夠不夠? 你能不能拿十年? 這些先寫下來。 我覺得這一段很重要, 因為我們前面講得比較重 觀眾可能會被嚇到 但真的不能今天聽完,明天就亂動。 Don't watch a video and swallow it, and don't deny it right after watching it. Everyone's situation is different. Some strategies are drugs to others, and may be toxic to you. In the end, you still have

15:54 to go back to your own family, cash flow, age, risk tolerance. To be honest, only you know if you won't be able to sleep at night. Yes, if you can't sleep when you fall 10%, then don't say you can handle Nasdaq. If you have to buy a house, a car, and tuition in three years, don't take that money to buy stocks. Live first, then take revenge. Today's episode is actually a bit like unboxing a very beautiful package. It's really nice to buy this package from all over the world. Distant, safe, no need to think. But after you open it, it may not be what you think it is. Yes. It may be suitable for some people, but it shouldn't be considered as a standard answer for everyone. And I think the most annoying thing is that many people are not losing in buying the wrong

16:42 thing, but losing in buying something that looks completely fine. This is the trouble. You are more likely to be alert when it comes to bad things. Something that looks right will make you not check for 20 years. Okay, I want to cut this sentence. You're here again? No, I'm just a professional. And this sentence is really suitable for short audio. Look, you just said you don't want to buy anything, and now you want to cut everything. Hey, it's different. Investment must be restrained, and cutting can be a little greedy. You're quite natural with your double-edged sword. But seriously, today I just wanted to talk about buying the whole world, but after talking about it, 我腦子有點熱。AI、工作、債券、現金一集裡面塞太多了。

17:31 所以等一下不要再去饒河街了。 你現在這個狀態,很容易看到什麼都覺得來都來了。 不會啦。我今天很理性,頂多買一個胡椒餅。 好啦。如果你聽完這集心裡有一點不舒服,其實也正常。 有些觀念聽起來很安全,但不代表它真的適合你。 先別急著動賬戶,回去看一眼自己到底買了什麼,為什麼買,這樣就夠了。 對,不用急著找標準答案,帶著自己的狀況去想,才有意義。 那如果你喜歡我們這種,前面好像在聊夜市,後面突然聊到人生有點沉重的節目, 歡迎訂閱投資翻譯官。 也歡迎去聽CLEC

18:21 James老師更完整的投資理念。 每週六的Clubhouse問答, 也很適合把自己的真實問題帶進去問。 真的要問自己的問題, 不要問那種到底買哪個代碼一定會發財。 對,那種問題問了也只會得到路衡的白眼。 我现在已经在控制了。 好啦,那今天就先聊到这里。 我是若晴。 我们下次慢慢聊。 拜拜。