[홍장원의 불앤베어] 금융위기 직전으로 내려간 신용스프레드. 두달만에 일자리 26만개가 날아갔다. 골드만삭스 "여전히 주식 매우 저평가"

0:00 I was not very good at the stock market. One trigger that ultimately came out was the employment report that came out this morning. If you look at the non-farm payrolls index, the forecast was 106,000, but in reality, it only came out to 73,000. In fact, it was past data that influenced the market . If you look at the data from the month before last, the figure for June decreased from 147,000 won to 14,000 won. Pure increase. And the May data dropped from 144,000 won to 19,000 won. In other words, it was not this month's data that had a major impact on the market, but rather the fact that there were virtually no new jobs in the previous month and the month before that, which showed that the job market had been inflated . The market reacted to this all at once today,

0:49 showing the possibility of a market downturn today . So now Trump seems to be quite angry . So this person, Erica Megentafor, is the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and she's the director in charge of this, and she was appointed by the previous Biden administration, and she's doing a really bad job, and there's a bit of an agenda. I was fired today after explaining it like this. Anyway, as it became known that the employment data from the previous month was very bad, the September interest rate and the possibility of it going up significantly. By hitting 86.5% at 5%, it seemed as if they were taking the interest rate cut as a given . The reason why this can be thought of this way is because we talk about the Fed's dual responsibility. That's price stability and maximum employment. But even though inflation is

1:35 not currently returning to the Fed's 2% target, If we look at it objectively, it is a situation where it is rising a little bit . But from the perspective of the Fed's other goal of maximum employment, the number of jobs added over the past three months has only been a little over 100,000 . And since the number of deliveries before and after delivery has been adjusted downward by approximately 260,000, the number of 73,000 that came out this time can be seen as data that cannot be reassured . So now, from a year-round perspective, there is now some justification. America's largest employer is under threat. The market is now betting strongly on a September rate cut, as there is now enough data to support this view. We are now seeing interest rates fall below PangPang for the third time in a row this year. Let's

2:20 take a closer look at this month's hiring. Looking at the data that has come out, what stands out is the decline in government employment. It's pure emotion. Sun-gam. This government has a negative reputation. Actually, if you look at last month, you can see that this is an adjusted figure, so it 's an increase of 11,000, but in fact, the number for government employment last month was very high. But the number of acceptances decreased from 1,000 to 1,000. The month of the earthquake also ended up with a decrease of 50,000 . So, to some extent, the government's current trend of hiring and job cuts is now established in statistics, and we can confirm this data. In the end, there is room to see that this Dodge's Musk Dodge's reduction of civil servants is a bit behind the times and is reflected in the numbers . And if you look at it objectively, the private sector employment figures that came out this time are

3:05 not bad at all . Looking at private sector employment alone, there was an increase of 83,000, which is 3,000 more than the previous month and 69,000 the month before that. The private sector employment in the same month last year was 40,000. Compared to anything from the Biden era, this month's numbers are actually not bad when you look at private payrolls alone . However, in terms of government employment, the numbers are so high that it seems that the government restructuring process failed to catch some statistical illusion and is now catching it all . Therefore, this employment report does not mean that the private sector's vitality is immediately declining . In other words, it is not at a stage where we can jump to conclusions right now that the recession is severe

3:51 . Let me emphasize this point again . But the strong decline in the stock market today suggests that the employment cuts made last month were too large . It almost feels like the market has been scammed by government data . As that point was reflected in the market at once, it pushed the stock market even more strongly . You can see it like this. But then, how do we view the stock market going forward? The basis for that judgment is that because employment is bad this time, a recession is coming, and that is why the stock market is falling. If you look at it this way, it seems a bit like that. Now that the Fed has finally found a justification for cutting interest rates, the stock market, although somewhat sluggish today, could rise again with the interest rate cut as a new driving force. Is n't there room to see it this way? I think we need to look at it in a complex way . I'm introducing this because, coincidentally, Goldman Sachs is currently in a situation where it's showing both the logic mode of fire and Baer at

4:38 the same time . Because this is a very large company even in Goldman Sachs. This phenomenon occurs because there are a lot of active analysts and they look at the market from different angles depending on the data they mainly see . First, if you look at the bare data, of course, this may not be bare data. This graph, which is somewhat simplistic, shows the average spread of these global investment-grade investment-grade companies . It fell to its lowest level since 2007 . What is this? This is an indicator of how much additional interest this company is required to pay compared to the same government bonds, which are seen as having little risk. Even if we say that the warning light for US Treasury bonds has been turned on,

5:24 is it still likely that the US government will fail? Are American companies more likely to fail? So, corporate bonds issued by companies need to have a slightly higher premium to be sold than government bonds issued by the government. That's what's coming out now, and it fell to the point just before the 2007 financial crisis . This means that the market views the credit risk of companies as low . There is a very optimistic mood in the credit market. To put it bluntly, the credit market is flowing in an overly lax atmosphere. You can also look at it this way . So after being this extravagant, I would sometimes come across something like this . We can see some statistical figures like this, and for those who see things negatively, this can be read as a warning message . Conversely, if you

6:09 look at the content posted on the Goldbance website today, there's a podcast called The Markets, which invited Segal Eun-i . The title of the content is this. The stock is very undervalued . How do you say this? We remain optimistic about this medium-term economic outlook . Of course, I think there is a 30% chance that there will be a temporary economic slowdown or recession in the second half of the year, but I think that from next year onwards, there will be only positive news. Because in the end, it's the government that's releasing the money . As I've explained many times, Germany is expanding its finances through the defense budget, and to solve this problem, Germany even changed its constitutional concept, the Basic Law . The US is using AI and robotics to expand domestic credit with BBB, and China is also using AI and robotics while simultaneously using finance and credit. In the short term,

6:56 if companies bear the burden of tariffs, it will hit corporate profits, and if consumers bear the burden, it will have an impact on consumption, but the current estimate is that the scale is 250-300 billion dollars per year, which is equivalent to 1% of the US GDP, but it is only a one-time tax, and on the other hand, from the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the depreciation bonus, social security tax cut, TIPS tax exemption, etc. are interpreted as various fiscal support measures, so the effect could be very strong, and separately from the movement of the Fed, the dollar could show a weak entrance . But ultimately, AY Robotics investment is in the US and China, and to invest in AI, the US has to buy and have dollars, so even if the Fed lowers interest rates in September, this came out at the end of July, so it came out before we saw the labor data today. Anyway,

7:44 even if the Fed lowers interest rates in September, there is a high probability that the medium- to long-term short-term price will ultimately be strong. Look at it like this. Stocks are still the best investment right now . Recent earnings announcements have been encouraging, and AI is driving the growth of CEPEX GDP. The real economic contribution of AI will begin to materialize over the next five to ten years. I see it like this . But people also ask questions like this . They ask, “Isn’t this a sign of a peak, seeing the recent rise of democracy?” Looking at the bottom-up indicators here, it may look expensive. But if you look at things like this, it may seem expensive, and the stock risk premium may seem expensive, but from a macro perspective, the US is currently expanding the 6% rate and previously it was around 6 to 7%, and

8:30 through this, the value of the currency is diluted, and just this effect alone can make stocks rise further, and since credit is flowing into productive areas such as AI gardens, the benefits are expected to be concentrated in US stocks. However, in the short term, August is always a month with high liquidity and market volatility. Last year, Japan was somewhat shaken up until August 5th, and there may be signs of that happening again this year . Here's how to explain it. So anyway, if we look at the market today, it was a day when the shock of the severely damaged labor data was fully reflected in the stock market, as almost 260,000 jobs were lost over two months due to excessive cuts . So the VIX index has risen significantly, and recently, interest rates, the 10-year interest rate, has fallen significantly. However, it is

9:20 a bit of a stretch to say that this itself has damaged the mid- to long-term US stock market scenario . Because, when looking only at private sector employment, the actual net private sector employment this time was actually quite good, so it is a bit of a stretch to say that this in itself means that the U.S. is heading for an immediate recession . It would be good if you could take note of these details, and right now, there are conflicting opinions on whether the stock market will do well or not in the future, so although there is a possibility that the stock market will fluctuate in August, there are many positive aspects in the medium to long term, and because the global economy is releasing money, we have also digested the opinions of experts who predict that the stock market is likely to go up . Well, personally, I think the pressure exerted by U.S. Treasury bonds and global government bonds, which will be subject to upward pressure during this process, will ultimately affect the market

10:08 . This is an issue that we, as the general, should be paying attention to. There are also problems like this, so as I explained yesterday, Bessent is effectively doing YCC again . Anyway, the decision is yours, and we will quickly provide you with the latest data and the latest views on the month and the year . Thank you for watching today's video. Please give us lots of love by subscribing to the monthly newsletter and liking it. thank you