If Trump Gets CRUSHED in November, Things Could Get Very Ugly

0:00 Hey everybody, it's Tim Miller from the Bull Work. Um, I was up at Dartmouth. I was an Ivy man thanks to my colleague Sam Stein and uh my friend Liz Smith who are actual Dartmouth grads. Um, the three of us were invited up there to do a little panel for the students in the community and um was super fun. Uh we discussed kind of state of the Democratic party stuff, where the Republican party's going. Um our thoughts about kind of what lessons can be taken from this midterm. Um took some Q&A. Uh it was great. I you know I I don't know. I mean, maybe it's self- selecting like the type of student that wants to come see me is going to be

0:47 great obviously and so maybe it's just that but I feel like every time campus doing these things like all the discourse around what's happening on campus seems so silly to me. It's always people that are thoughtful and have various differing views and willing to share them and um I don't know all the woe is the youth stuff never really lands with me when I'm actually hanging out with youth. So um I hope you enjoy it as much as I did um to be up there. Stick around for me, Sam Stein, Liz Smith, live from Dartmouth College. >> Hi, welcome everyone. Um, so thank you so much for being here with us this afternoon to participate in this conversation as part of the Rockefeller Center's 2026 midterm programming. My name is B. Reichman. I'm a 27 studying government and Middle Eastern studies and I'm the president of the Dartmouth

1:32 College Democrats. So, the Rockefeller Center is grateful to its partners in planning tonight's program, including Dartmouth Dialogues, the Office of Dean and Faculty Arts and Sciences, and the Office of the Associate Dean for Dean for Social Sciences. We would like to welcome our virtual attendees who are joining us today via live stream. For those joining us in person, when we reach the audience Q&A portion of the program, please raise your hand and come to the aisle when a staff approaches your row. Please be sure to wait for the microphone before speaking to make sure that everyone in the room and on live stream can hear you. As a reminder, Dartmouth is committed to protecting free speech and expression and peaceful descent. We encourage you to ask questions during the Q&A, but ask that you do not interfere or disrupt today's program, which would include preventing

2:17 attendees from seeing or hearing the guest or moderator or interfering with our guest and moderator's ability to be speak to speak and be heard. This conversation is moderated by Professor Russ Mirhead, Robert Clemens, professor of democracy and politics and co-director of the political economy project. I am honored to introduce this evening's guest speakers, two of whom are Dartmouth alumni. Um, so first we have Tim Miller. He is the host of the Bull Work podcast. He's also a political analyst at MS Now and previously was the communications director for Jeb Bush's 2020 2016 presidential campaign and spokesman for the RNC during Mitt Romney Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. Liz Smith is a Democratic strategist and communications expert with experience on

3:02 more than 20 political campaigns nationwide from local races to the presidential level and she's the author of the New York Times best-selling memoir Any Given Tuesday and a 2005 graduate of Dartmouth College. Sam Stein is managing editor for the Bull Work and prior he was deputy managing editor for politics at Politico. He had he held similar posts at both the Daily Beast and the Huffington Post where he founded the site's Capital Bureau and has been a longtime contributor at MSNBC and a 2004 graduate of Dartmouth College. Please join me in welcoming Tim Miller, Liz Smith, Sam Stein, and Professor Russ Mirhead to the stage. >> Good work. [applause] [applause]

3:55 Well, thank you so much. Thank you for coming. Thank you for coming. Welcome back. Um and uh and and let me start out by asking I'm I'm I'm curious. I mean, I think we all we're all reading the polls. We're thinking not wave. We're thinking tidal wave. were thinking tsunami, you know, but I I'm not so much interested in your prognostication about what's going to happen in the election as I'm interested in what lesson do you think or lessons do you think the Democratic party will take away from election 2026? >> Um, so look, I'm a lifelong Democrat and I know that we are very good at taking the wrong lessons away from elections. Um, but it is my hope we take the right

4:40 lesson away from this one. And um, you know, you and I were talking before about this, but there has been a really dangerous myth that has been pedled in the Democratic party for the last nearly 20 years. And it's that mobilization alone matters. You know, why do we need to persuade people? Just turn out our base, have our candidates adopt the most maximalist positions on issues. And of course that 2008 coalition that materialized for Barack Obama and helped him win North [snorts] Carolina and Indiana and Ohio and Florida and Iowa that that it would keep on rolling. And it, you know, it was based on a lot of things that clearly are problematic that you take the the farthest left position and that that coalition of uh college educated voters of black voters of

5:28 Latino voters of younger voters that of course they're all going to go along with you because why would black voters think differently from Latino voters or think differently from young voters and why would young black voters think differently from older black voters? Why would Venezuelan Americans think differently from Cubanameans from Mexican-Americans? So, obviously, we know that hasn't panned out because we went from having um 60 Senate seats in 2009, Democrats did, to what is it, 48 now? >> Yep. >> Um we went from having I think like close to 260 uh seats in the House to having many fewer than that. I'm not going to butcher the numbers. I could go through and if you look down the list at state legislatores, it's even worse. Um, so what you will hear is you will hear

6:13 people the day after the election say, "This proves that mobilization works. This proves that only bold progressives can win and that we're the people who turn people out." And I have no problem with progressives. I have no problem with um them. I know that they feel like I do that we have a lot of problems that we need to address. Um but the reality is this. If we win back the House of Representatives, if we win back the Senate, it will be because we got back in the listening business and we got back in the persuasion business. >> And >> that's wrong. You said one wrong thing. >> And that's good. >> And >> we can start disagreeing. >> And and this is the thing. We can't prejudge. We don't know what's going to happen. But I do know this. If you look around at the battleground seats for House for Senate, you can count on one

6:59 hand, fewer than five fingers, how many people are running on on the most maximalist positions. Um, and so the House and the Senate, should we win them, are going to be won by Democrats who are trying to to persuade people back to their side, whether they're independents or they're Republicans. Um, and it means that there's no one way to be a Democrat. A Democrat in the Rio Grande Valley is going to look very different from a Democrat in Southwest Washington very different different from a Democrat in New York City. And guess what? That's okay. We do not need every Democrat to subscribe to the same positions. What we do need to understand is that there is no one way to be a Democrat. And if we want to be a majority party that we've got to really embrace that big 10 thinking. >> All right, let's talk about our differences. First, I just want to say I'm so happy to be here Dartmouth. Never

7:45 been to Hover Town Hall a few times. So, I know I was down the block, but um you know, I uh I didn't even come close to making it in here. I didn't do my homework in high school. And so, Liz, look at Liz. This is the prep Liz did for this panel. This is what Liz made it to Dartmouth and I didn't. But [laughter] 20 20 years later though, I'm here. We're in the same place. So, it's all that work for nothing. >> [applause] >> Um anyway, um I the thing that I disagree with you about is like I think our core um fun disagreement these days, which is if the Democrats take the Senate and the House with big margins uh in November, uh it's mostly going to be because Trump stepped on his dick so hard. Um [laughter] and it's not really

8:31 going to be kind of I mean I think that some that Democrats ran good campaigns and better campaigns some places than others, but I I think a lot of Democrats who run bad races are going to win. Um, I think that there's some good examples of Democrats winning races and like had, you know, had the Texas Senate been inverse, right? And had the Republicans put up John Cornin and the Democrats put up some, you know, lunatic lefty, um, they probably wouldn't have won that race, right? So, >> you can see that with a lot of these races. You could sure and and of course the anti-Trump stuff is a big factor, but let's say across the board, the candidates who won hadn't won a lot of these primaries, we would be having a slightly different conversation. >> Maybe. Yeah, maybe. I I just think that like I I don't know that um for example like shared Brown I think will probably win in Ohio. I think this is a good good example cuz he doesn't really fit in in

9:18 the factional fight part of this in the way like Abdul or Roy Cooper does. But he'll probably win in Ohio. >> Like is he doing anything meaningfully differently than he did when he lost six years ago? Like not really. Like I think he's going to do better this time because the environment's so bad and because Donald Trump made so many mistakes. And so to me, I just think that I think it would be wrong for the Democrats. I think that there's some good lessons I think that they should learn. Uh like for example, the part we did agree with before before you got to uh the end there was that persuasion does really matter and they're going to win and and where holy [ __ ] it's possible they could win Alaska, Iowa, um Ohio, Texas. Like even if they don't win, even if they get very close in those states, like that should be a lesson to the Democrats. like they can actually go into communities where they've not been done very well for the last 15 16 years and do well and and so

10:04 I think that that is a lesson that they should take and will. I also just think that like off-year elections are so different than presidentials in this day and age. And I think that you can kind of over obviously Joe Biden way over interterpreted his mandate um after a kind of successful 2022 um where the where the Republicans actually won the House popular vote, but then the Democrat somehow Biden took that as a mandate for what he was doing. Um, and so I think that you can over interpret this sort of stuff, but 2028, I mean, it's just a very like the types of people that vote, um, the types of people that you have to talk to, the types of media outlets you have to do. It is, it is super different in presidential years than in midterms. >> Um, first of all, it's 47 seats, not 48, uh,

10:49 in the Senate. So, you should just count everything. >> You're not counting the You're not counting Bernie, the >> independent. It's still 40. It's >> still 47. >> It's still 47. Um, that's why they need to >> My math is See, this is why I don't give a >> 47 + 3 50. >> Um, you guys, doesn't this whole conversation make you feel like anxious? Like, what? Why are you guys It's I know the question was posed to you, but I'm sitting here mildly petrified that we have a massive polling misinterpretation. Again, >> I think it's very >> that like Iowa everyone, I saw something today. Iowa farmers are not actually answering the phones and the polls might be just overstating Dem. I would well there's a lot of literature that if your part is doing really poorly you're not inclined to answer a pollster. I I just think I guess if I had to take a side

11:36 here one is I would never talk about this because I'm superstitious. Two is I sort of agree with Tim uh and it's not cuz I work with him although I do want to keep the piece. Yeah. Um, but it's sometimes you look up and you you forget that the macro picture is so bad and it's it's almost like in 2020 I think back to 2020 a fair bit where it's like oh my god we had just there was one month where we lost 20 million jobs. There was a pandemic that was about to kill a million people. Uh everyone was losing their mind and living at home and going crazy and Joe Biden eaked it out. It's like how did he just eek it out? um because there's a lot of serious forces um that do work against uh the Democrats and I think those forces have been

12:23 negated a lot by uh what Trump has done to Tim's point. I you look and you say >> stepping on his own dick is >> I would not put it that colorfully. Um but yeah, I mean so the atmospherics are a big thing. Are they going to be there in 2028? I don't know. Um, Democrats have amazing capacity to fight amongst themselves and there will be factionalism uh to a degree that I think will be uncomfortable for everyone in this room and we'll live with it. But I'm like, let's not talk about that now. Let's talk about that in a month. >> Speaking of factions, >> do you have any sense of of of which factions within the Republican coalition um might gain traction after after the midterms? We have a very >> Yeah, that's way easier. [sighs]

13:09 >> It's this. We're not going back. Like, let's just be real. Yeah. This is what it is. >> That's it. >> Yeah. No, it is. And it is what it is from the standpoint of they want Republican voters want >> like nationalism for sure. And I think that people could say, you know, I think critics would say they want white nationalism and, you know, Republicans say they want sovereignty or whatever. But like they're not going back to this idea, you know, say what you want about kind of the whatever like our lifetime, you know, Ford to Bush like Republican candidates. Like there was like some fundamental like underlying classical liberalism, not like liberal like democrat liberal but classical liberalism of like believing in [snorts]

13:55 you know free trade and free markets and free movement of people and like some you know quasi liberalization of immigration and and um you know basic belief in rule of law and like this Republican party is not interested in any kind of liberalism classical or otherwise. like they are they're going to look like a blood and soil party like the right-wing parties in every other country basically except in Australia and except in the anglophere basically every other in the world the right-wing country excuse me the right-wing party is a nationalist party it's religious and you know some [clears throat] of it is like kind of state economic you know it's not necessarily like free markets in the way that you think about it here that's where that's where they're going to go and they're all going to fight over it and JD will be the kind of standard bearer of that kind of

14:40 nationalist movement. But even if Marco or someone challenged him, like look at how Nikki Haley basically ran a kind of a quasi nationalist campaign last time when she was trying to challenge Trump and and somebody might challenge from the evenier side. So that's just what people Yeah, that's that's what that's what the voters want. And they're much more homogeneous, >> you know, like the Republican voters are basically all on board with that. Like there is like a small category of like rich Republicans that just want tax cuts and support for Israel, but like like 80% of the party is basically aligned. Like they have little differences. So it's very different than the Democratic coalition in that regard. >> Yeah. Interesting. And is diversity a weakness in the Democratic coalition? >> It makes it more challenging, right? It definitely makes it more challenging to

15:26 to build a coalition when you have all these uh different, you know, all this diversity, right? Um, and uh, I I think that's a challenge that has presented itself to the Democratic party when you're trying to build a big 10. And I think the debate and look, I totally agree that the anti-Trump sentiment is what the overwhelming uh, thing is driving this. But in terms of the Democratic party and the candidates who are going to overperform, the candidates who are going to underperform, the candidates who are going to determine how Democrats do, it is going to be the type of candidates that I um discuss. But to your question about the diversity in the Democratic party, the big thing that we've got to reckon with, the big thing

16:12 that we've got to figure out is okay, so we're we've hemorrhaged in all these rural states. We've he rural areas. How do we how do we come back there? And it it's gonna require some difficult conversations and there disagreement is difficult and sometimes painful and I think the big reckoning you know after this cycle not and the presidential is sort of its own beast but I think as as we look how do we re rebuild over the next generation is how much disagreement can we tolerate um because a lot of people are like fine oh you can disagree with me on this but absolutely not on that. >> Yeah. And it just doesn't really work that way because there are going to be Democrats who maybe disagree with this sort of the, you know, standard position on abortion or on gun control or on oil

16:59 and gas or climate. And to someone in the coalition, they're going to be really pissed off about that. So, I think that's going to be the biggest messiest challenge. >> What I hear you saying is you you want a a leg democratic legislative coalition that contains more disagreement in it. >> I want a a Democratic party across the board. >> Yeah. >> No choice but to do that. Like here's the thing and this is kind of the funny thing about the Democratic co that's every like everybody from every faction is talking about you know how we can win this other group of people that is not them right and and like the median voter in the country if I had if I did if I got into Dartmouth I would have done gotten the actual number of this but I'm pretty sure the median voter in the country is like 62 white and didn't go to college. >> Mhm. >> Okay. So that's like in a presidential year that is like the median voter

17:46 demographic and like the Democrats don't have a >> like suburbs exerbs. >> Yeah. Yeah. And the Democrats like aren't very well represent. The Democrats are super diverse in a bunch of other demographics, but like they're not very well represented and kind of the plurality group in the country still. It's not as big as it was in 1984, but like non-ol white working-class people is the still the plurality demographic group in the country. And for Democrats to win, especially with the way that the electoral college and the Senate biases towards that group even more, like they have to figure out how to get more of those people in. And uh you know, I think everybody has different theories of the case um about how to do that, like whether that be economic populism or moderating more on on social issues, but like that like the Democrats, you

18:33 know, just because of the nature of how the the coalitions break down, the Democrats need to broaden out more. And when I look at I mean I don't I'm not really an expert I think as you are about the specific races out there especially say congressional races in the country but when I kind of glance at it I see some interesting characters like a smoke jumper in Montana um a a Navy helicopter pilot running for Congress in in in Florida small town mayor in North Carolina. I mean when you look at the specific races does it does it >> were you on the bench.com before you came here? You're just shouting out all of Liz's candidates. >> Oh is that right? I you know I just love your candidates. [laughter] Yeah. Um well, I mean that and that's I I think an incredible thing, right? Because look, I I love lawyers. You know, every lawyers play a really

19:18 important role in society, but they're like a [clears throat] little over over represented sometimes in politics [laughter] and we need to like branch out a little bit. And one thing I love about this election cycle, I'm part of a group called um the bench that went out after 2024 and said, "You know what? We're sick of losing. Let's start looking for different types of candidates." And among our candidates, we have a smoke dumper in Montana. Someone who like jumps out of planes to put out fires. We've got a Tahhano music star in the Rio Grande Valley, Bobby Pledo. He is awesome. Um, and he is um I'm not going to jinx anything, but he is running a fantastic campaign. We've got um a a farmer and small businessman in western uh North Carolina who's doing really well. We've got a a woman leader in the special operations who is running in the Hudson Valley of New York. And I

20:04 think that's what's incredible and and part of the thing too is when you're running a woman like Kate Connley, she's running the Hudson Valley and her opponent's just calling her DSA every day of the week. It's pretty hard for that caricature to stick. When you look at her bio, she was in special operations, deployed six times to war zones to hunt down terrorists. Not only that, before that, she was a cop. So she was a cop in the military, went down to hunt down terrorists. You're not going to say that this is like AOC Jr. It just doesn't work. A lot of the attacks just don't work on people like this. And I think that we've got to realize that we need different types of candidates with those sorts of bios because one, I think they're a little more relatable or a little bit, you know, uh, less political seeming. Um, and two, it they're harder to characterize. >> It seems like there's got to be sort of a, you know, a generational change in

20:50 the ranks of elected officials coming from really both parties. But I mean, when you see these this younger generation that's that's activated, that wants to pay the enormous personal price of running for office, um, do you see, you know, signs of hope, a different type? Um, [snorts] >> no, Sam, you're >> No, I I'm just thinking the DSA plays the long game. They, you know, you pretend to be a smoke jumper and then you show your [laughter] real colors when you get elected. So, you got to do better vetting, Liz. Um I you know I I sort of always wonder who would want to subject themselves to this nonsense. Um >> like your whole life gets just absolutely turned over. Uh every little misstep or in this case social media posts that you've made it's going to be

21:36 unearthed. You have to have not just incredibly thick skin to get into politics, but you have to be sort of masochistic in a way and you have to be and and and frankly you have to be a little bit egoomaniacal like you have to >> believe that you are the solution to people's problems. So, you know, it draws interesting characters to say the least. >> Surprised you never took it fast. [laughter] >> I fit all. Yeah. Uh I'm here to announce actually um it is I will say there's something valuable to bringing in these new perspectives though. Um I'm married to a lawyer so I do have to say I do love lawyers too. Um but >> at least one >> at least one uh but you know it's I think um having people who have come

22:22 through different upbringings and who bring to Congress different perspectives can create interesting coalitions and interesting debates. Sometimes it's very frustrating. I always um mispronounce her name, but who's the congresswoman you love up in Washington? >> Marie Gluca Camp. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I mean, she's on my nerves a little bit lately. I still love her. So, I love her. She's got different she's just unique and interesting. I I approached from So, I'm different than them. I've never run campaigns or been involved in campaigns, but I cover them. And those are the type of people that you sort of as a journalist gravitate to because >> not only are they good characters who you can write about who bring a different biography to um Washington DC if they're elected, but they provide better quotes. Honestly, they're not as polished. Uh and I do think there's a

23:09 little bit of chicken and egg here [clears throat] because I think it's that lack of polish, the ability to at least scan as authentic uh that is a real currency in the modern political age. Yeah, we need weirder people that fit weirder ideological veilance p like I mean if you looked at the last couple of years and you said like who [clears throat] in Congress has done anything like I feel like everybody's answer would be like nobody right but then it's like okay but really like if you had to name somebody who would you come up with like I think a lot of people would say Roana and Thomas Massie who like actually did things together and they're both very strange like Thomas Massie has some views that are [snorts] like completely crank and kooky and you know like you if your if your daughter was like hey I'm dating Thomas

23:54 Massie you'd be like oh bye [laughter] but okay but like he he was a different kind of Republican broke the mold and they you know they broke through an epsteile broke through Iran and some other stuff and and kind of Roana also has like a quirky background where he like is doing the populist Bernie thing but also is in Silicon Valley and has tech bro you know what I mean like sometimes that kind of unpredictable I I I do feel like One potential way out of this morass is is like you can't draw it up. You know what I mean? I think a lot of times people say like, "Oh, I want more moderation." And and some people like I think interpret what sometimes Liz is saying maybe a little wrong because they're like, "Oh, that means I want the moderate Democrat I have in my head like >> Evan B and like the moderate Republican I have in my head like Phil Scott." And

24:40 it's like well that's >> but I also what I would just say is like I'm not I I think that the idea that pe of centrism is so out of date and so not where people are right and when um the reality is that most voters have pretty complex views and um you know they don't fit neatly on an ideological spectrum and you know if you if they're some of them are really far left on economics but really far right on cultural issues. Some people are just like all over the map on on different things. And I think what we just need to embrace is not saying you have to be a down the line moderate. You have to be a down the line progressive and understand that maybe having some more of these like unconventional candidates who have sort of messy political views that frankly map more um uh neatly with the American voters I think is is >> well I'll just add because I keep coming

25:26 back to authenticity. So, it's like let's say AOC decides to run for president or whatever and Gavin Newsome decides to run for president. My guess is they'll probably end up arguing for about 97% of the same things. But you're going to probably be like, "Okay, she's way more authentic cuz she actually was a bartender whereas he literally operates a vineyard, right?" Like there's like some sort of there's some sort of prism through which you >> fans online will act like it's Stalin vers. >> Yeah. They're going to be oh my god this but it's really the ability of voters to sort of ascertain who is being genuine which I think is really important these days. >> And when you cover politics when you when you're inside a campaign when you

26:12 see it up close um is it more like uh VEP the sort of soulless? >> Next question. [laughter] It's not West Wing. >> No. >> Is literally a documentary. [laughter] >> Yes. >> Truly. >> No, really. It's shocking. Every day I'm like, I cannot believe cuz VEP came VEP kind of came out around the same time as um that Kevin Spacy show um House of Cards. >> House was like, "Oh, Washington's like it's not even remotely this. It's VEP." Like these people are idiots. They are idiot. Hless idiots. Yes. >> Yeah. So we should be I should teach a course on on VEP if people really want to understand the truth of of politics. >> I mean yeah have you watch one of the

26:58 students asked us earlier they're like I'm cons Yeah. She was concerned about like the people running behind the scenes might make it hard. I was like >> there the man behind it's Wizard of Oz and VEP. It's like the man behind the curtain has nothing there's nothing there. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> I promise. And and and I mean a lot of us, you know, both [laughter] we're a lot of people are idealistic about politics. I mean, how how do you reconcile the the way it really is with the idealism that motivates a lot of interest in politics? >> Well, it's I understand I understand this is contradictory, but I [clears throat] do think um >> because there are moments where you can be idealistic. Um I'll just say from the vantage point of the bull work, it's obviously media, not politics, but we're kind of in the cross-sections. Um,

27:43 after the killing of Renee Good and Alex Prey, uh, obviously it was a deeply troubling time and I'm not comparing this to VEP, obviously it was horrible, it was tragic, but one of the things that we did at the Bullwork is we, and this was Tim's idea, we went out to Minneapolis immediately and we decided to have a live show there. And it was just a simple act of being like, "Hey, we're going to meet as a community." Um, and we sold out within like 24 hours. and we're like, "Okay, we got to do a second show." So, we sold that out, too. And you meet these people who have had to do unthinkable things to keep their community together. I remember talking to this one guy who was retired and he had basically been like, I'm going to just have my retirement. I'm going to

28:28 and then this thing happened to his community and he started waking up every day at 6:00 in the morning so that he could be a human shield for kids going to elementary school because ICE agents were descending on them. And you you look at that and you're like, "Oh my god." like that act, the ability of a community to come together to affect political change on their own because the politicians have decided that they're going to actually turn against the community. That is inspiring. Obviously, it was in this mu of horrible human tragedy and inspeable government policy, but I left that feeling so like grateful that these acts of courage still could make a difference. Maybe not nationally, but certainly in that

29:14 Minneapolis community. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I don't Yeah, sure. [applause] >> I don't Look, life is messy and complicated and like there are a lot of buffoons in politics, a lot of things that make you angry, but but you know, there are moments of of, you know, of progress, you know, that like that's why we all got into politics. Like we all at heart at heart, you know, are softies underneath, you know, our hard candy shells up here. And um I don't you know I I I do worry about kind of the kids in school now and like their view on this about like feel you know like if you you know were whatever if you're a freshman now here at Dartmouth you know you were like younger than my daughter when Trump came down the escalator right so you remember nothing else and it doesn't

30:00 really feel like there's been any positive progress and so I understand like a disillusionment part of that but like that wasn't our you know like cheoogy millennial experience right I mean like my family was illegal when I was in college, like literally like my current family was not legal. So, and there was lots of progress that happened um over a period of time. Obviously, for older folks in here, there's tons of progress that happened before that. And so, and and I think we have little moments of progress and you mentioned Minnesota, but the other immigration thing, for example, is that I always come back to that we talked about a lot on the show was the El Salvador goolog. And like they wanted to expand it. like they sent a bunch of people illegally to a foreign country to a gulag that they were going to leave there to die and there was a bunch of outrage, a bunch of push back and the pe the Venezuelans

30:46 that are in were in there are now not. They're free. Um like one of them still messages me and there's nobody in there from us. So is that like a huge win, you know, like in the grand scheme of things? No. But like that's meaningful. Like there are meaningful ways to engage. >> Yeah. And quickly, I mean, I think so much of the news that we consume it seems to just like revolve around six national politicians, like six to eight, right? And a lot of them, like including someone on my side, like you know, notably Chuck Schumer, like not that good, right? Don't but like not that good. And they're not they're not going to like give you that thrill up your leg. But I think what the thing that keeps me going and some days it's hard, right? I I read the news. I'm I'm watching these campaigns. because I'm seeing all the horrible stuff that Tim

31:31 and Sam are are covering. And um but then, you know, I remember one day I saw on on my calendar a call with Adam Hamilton and I'm like, "Who's Adam Hamilton?" And and they're like, "Oh, he's running for Senate in Kansas." I was like, "Jesus Christ, guys, like you really you're putting this on my calendar like I'm having a bad day." And I remember t my colleague couldn't make it. I end up talking to him for about 45 minutes and I left the call absolutely buzzing and like feeling like oh my god you know this is exactly why I do this is because you know outside of those six to eight sort of lackluster people in national politics there are like all these really good like I mean good with a capital G people who want to step up for whatever reason it is and run for

32:16 office run for office statewide in Kansas a place that hasn't sent a Democrat to the US Senate since the 1930s. And so that's what I always encourage people to do is when when you get sick and tired of these and my mom's back there, right? She's always like, "Oh, I gave this money to this person." I'm like, "No, no, no. Look up this person. Look up this person because I promise you like our politics is so much better than the leaders in in our parties often are. >> Let me invite um your mom and others to ask questions." And if you have a question, raise your hand. We have people with microphones that come around. Um let's take some questions from from people in the audience. Um you [laughter] know uh I uh [clears throat] I there there's a lot of emphasis you know you're

33:02 >> I'm going to be ranking your questions by the way so make them good. >> Hold up a number 6.5 from the um [clears throat] you you know there's there in a campaign it's it's zero sum. You're either going you win everything or you lose everything and it's a fight and and that maybe contributes to the kind of benality of of of a campaign. But in the university there's and universities all over the country leaders are of universities are are trying to cultivate dialogue and and and while the the you know conservative or Republican party in the United States is becoming a permanently MAGA party in many ways like AFD like right-wing parties in Europe and the Democratic party tries to m tries to become something out of all of its diversity is there you know do you believe that

33:47 there's an occasion does dialogue possible Is dialogue something that >> Liz loves dialogue? >> I do. I I I I'm Do I think it's possible? Yes, I think it's possible. I think right now it's more possible on the local level. I think it's more possible on the municipal level. I'm I'm just going to be realistic, right? >> Um but I don't think that just because things are bad right now means that we have to say that this has to be what politics is forever. And there are some people who I think it like really thrive and think their business model, you know, depends on it just being this endless warfare. And I think some people actually sickly like like it. Um, but I'm an op, you know, I'm a softy. I'm an optimist at heart. And I do I do think that there can be dialogue. There should

34:33 be dialogue. Um, but it's it's difficult. >> I think our business will be fine either way. Uh, but I uh I will be in the old folks home pointing a bony finger at people and being like, "They were for Trump." Sorry, I'm not going to I'm not sitting next to you. >> We're not going to forget. >> Yeah. Not at my table. >> Sam Sam, are you an optimist at heart? [laughter] >> I'm serious, so it's not a joke. >> Um, no, not really. [laughter] Uh, I mean, at heart I am. I don't know. I guess everything's cyclical and eventually there will be enough of an appetite for a different type of not moderate but like you know calmed down politics but then I'm like I look at stuff right now and it's just you know it's like I we

35:19 always joke about >> the chatbot's going to kill us before that. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. Is [clears throat] going to take us out thankfully. Uh no uh I don't I don't want us to die. Um I he and I always talk about RFK uh Junior because it just I just can't take it. But like I look at I look at the the stuff that's like you know RFK Jr. has like unleashed measles on America and like the guy who gave them to us, Bill Cassidy who got wiped whose seat is like no longer up for grabs who has no incentive whatsoever to play nice like even he cannot like get off the Trump reservation at this moment. And that is just shocking to me. Uh so that gives me very little hope that there's going to be that kind of crosspollination that you're talking about. Well, you know, maybe you have to start somewhere question over here. Uh my question is

36:04 for Liz because we kind of began this whole seminar on this idea especially like whenever you answering question uh the thing about uh centrists versus populists uh and this polarization we talk about it and I mean even in Michigan uh as you can see I mean El even in the primaries it was kind of polarizing cuz people there were a group of people within the Democratic party that didn't want him to win because they thought he would be a weaker candidate in the general election, right? And my question to you is um Michigan being a swing state right now, um if Elsid loses, you can say, "Look at me. I was right." Right. But what do you what would you think what did you make of it

36:50 if Elsai wins in Michigan? >> So I I don't I don't think I I can't speak for other people. I certainly am rooting for Abdul sayed and I think um I think he ran a really impressive primary campaign. Um and he is starting to work to build a broader coalition which I think is really smart. Um if he wins um I I think it's a mixture of the two things that we said. I and and like look this is when you were talking about the Republican party before um and those two answered I I Mike Rogers actually popped into my head right as one of these candidates because I feel like if you were going to break with Donald Trump like this would sort of be an election year where you do it right cuz he's so

37:37 incredibly unpopular. His numbers are worse now than they were after January 6. And then the fact that you have guys like Mike Rogers in Michigan just and just like clinging to him and like maybe a little bit saying, "Okay, we need to end the Iran war as soon as possible." Like that's the biggest daylight he can put between them. So I think um I look I think he's running an energetic campaign. I also think that Mike Rogers is a is an incredibly weak candidate. Someone who's been living in Florida for a long time. He has been a lobbyist all up in the DC swamp. Um, so I think it's a combination of of Elsa running an en energetic campaign and um Mike Rogers being really >> being just I just don't understand why it is so hard to really stake out a

38:23 different position. But I do think that that is going to hurt a lot of Republicans and races like that. My one observation about Michigan is when we were talking about the middle as an example from earlier is I feel like every time if I'm on a panel like this people hear the middle and they think about like what's the old like Illy thing I'm fiscally conservative and socially liberal and that's moderate and those people are the swing voters >> and it's like that's like kind of true and like there there that was more true in the past than it is now and there are still those people that still exist but there's like the inverse side of of of people that have like opposite views to that um people that are maybe socially conservative but very anti-war. Um and and and I think that Elsa's speaking to those people. I think you can see in the polls he does some well with some Trump voters. And I I don't I would love for

39:10 somebody to try to get both of those groups of swing voters, you know, and I think that Elsa that Elsa is really kind of locked in on a certain type of of voter and I think it'll be enough for him to win. And uh you know I just yeah I think that [snorts] I think that there's more groups to think about that are persuadable than sometimes like democratic strategists think about >> question from this side. [snorts] Hi. So I think we have been like witnessing a populist upsurge from both the left and the right very interestingly and whether it is against economic elites or against political elites and I'm just wondering like how do you think the Democratic party should like approach or confront this kind of

39:57 like populist sentiment? >> I mean I think it's going to continue. uh you know if you look at saw some data today about like re real wage growth is now down stock market is up huge um we're going to have ungodly amounts of wealth uh that are uh concentrated among a handful of rich weirdos in Silicon Valley. And so I I just I think that the Democrats have to embrace some kind of I think that there is a way to do kind of a healthy type of politics that's populism that's not demagogic. >> It's risky though. I mean you know populism usually leads to demagoguery. Um certainly on the right of course but it can happen on the left too. Plenty of examples of that throughout the world.

40:43 >> Demagogy do you mean sort of trading and angry passions? Yeah, trading confessions li, you know, lying, fueling hate demonization scapegoating, conspiracy. Sometimes it overlaps into that like Yeah. >> And I also think that there there population populism takes many different forms. And I I one po uh one sort of populism that a lot of Democrats are latching on to that I think is really smart is institutional populism, saying that, you know, there's a lot of corruption in our government right now. The system is not working for people. um whether it is you know whether we need political reforms or we need you know to [snorts] ban you know stock trading or crypto scams whatever it is I think it is really smart for Democrats to run to understand that like the system is broken that there are um uh not enough

41:30 rules in place to prevent corruption and they're being very smart in tying that frustration with the system to a lot of the economic outcomes that people are seeing. I would only add um that it kind of feels like more of a necessity now for Democrats to do it than maybe a little bit in the past. By that I mean I think like the big lesson that a lot of Democrats have internalized um from the era of woke 1.0 was that identity politics was toxic for a lot of people. And if you flash back to that primary, um, all the questionnaires that they were answering, all the stuff around, you know, criminal justice reform, I'm not saying it's bad or or good or

42:16 anything like that, and immigration and should the border be decriminalized and things like that. Those were the things where they all felt like they had to take uh outwardly leftist positions. It becomes a little bit easier if your primary focus is on economic populism. And I guess the best template to kind of think about this is uh Bernie Sanders's two presidential campaigns. Yeah. Because in 2016, >> his platform on immigration was I mean it wasn't Trump like but it was like actually immigration >> right of me. >> Yeah. It was like immigrants we need to we need to like think about how immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans like that. Go back and look at it. >> Yeah. He wanted to reduce like unskilled immigration, >> right? and he barely talked about any of the cultural issues and he was kind of prouns and in 2020 that wasn't Bernie.

43:04 Uh I think it becomes more unifying in a way for Democrats to think about just structuring everything around corruption, around the elites and the weirdos in Silicon Valley just absolutely profitering while you're struggling around the price of gas. Those are things that are simple and unifying. >> Do we have another question? >> [clears throat] >> Is there a microphone? >> Uh I would just like to uh ask the opinion of the panel as to what will happen if indeed there is a blue wave or blue tsunami. What is Trump going to do?

43:51 How will he react to that both immediately after the election and in the two years he has left in his in his term? >> He'll probably take it pretty well. [laughter] >> Work across the aisle. >> Yeah. >> Find some common ground. Acknowledge his defeat. Yeah, [laughter] >> man. I I look obviously this was unsuccessful but on every interview panel anytime I was talking outside of like a liberal bubble in 24 like I tried to make the case that the best reason to vote against Trump was that the tail risk of what he does is just so great like he's so unpredictable and I think that in the face of having no congressional power like he's going to do what he's been doing which is try to do stuff by himself and run rough shot over the government and whether that is

44:38 like I how could I get into his brain and predict what it is like is that invading Greenland or Cuba or is it, you know, building putting his face on Mount Rushmore or whatever? Like that that's like the kind of stuff that he's been focused on now. I think he's going to continue to focus on and I think we'll pro he'll probably escalate the war in Iran um after the election and and I think that he'll try to do as much as he can in the areas where he can act unilaterally. >> I you know, the only variable I would add is that I don't and I I I really don't think he's going to try to run again. So, but you never know, right? Um, >> he might start in theory thinking about what the off >> heaven [laughter] >> he's already knows. He's not coming.

45:24 >> They really should have let you in. [laughter] >> I got to work on the heaven. I got to work on the heaven. Um, [laughter] no. I think, you know, I'm but I'm like corruption might actually become even more like in your face where he's like, I got to get my beak wet even more >> pardons for everybody. Um, you know, really trying to lay the groundwork for, you know, prosecuting his political opponents in a way that's much more vicious than now. Not good, right? Um but also at the same time like he is going to step off the stage eventually and um other Republicans are going to try to take his place and I know we just said Trumpism is not going to die. I don't think this is in contradiction to

46:09 it, but there's going to be a lot of kind of wo moments for Republicans in those two years where they're going to have to decide is this like, you know, can they get behind this or where what is actually happening in a way that I don't think we've properly conceived of yet. >> Uh yeah, I mean, I think he's shown he's a pretty lawless guy. Um, and when he's cornered, he seems to get even more lawless. But I I'm not sure that anyone's going to step up to challenge him, even on his way out. >> Okay. >> I mean, in in the, you know, when I'm hanging out in private with my Republican friends at the state level, uh, they all reviled Trump and they'll say, you know, I can't stand the guy. >> Uh, in public, you know, especially since he's delivered them to electoral

46:56 victory and power, >> they're all for him. And you know, wouldn't a decisive electoral defeat break the fever? >> No, because the people like no offense, but like the people you're talking to are not representative of the Republican party as a whole. >> Uhhuh. >> We also live through January 6, man. Like they he sicked a mob on the capital and they're like, "Oh, well, maybe it's worth another shot." >> Yeah. The normalization of that is the thing that I that that makes my head explode. I mean, I can you can debate immigration and borders. You can debate trade. That's interesting. debate so you know civil rights and on on the margin and that's those are interesting discussions to have and there's reasonable disagreements in them but but the idea that when you lose an election you know you should walk away um that I just don't see the other side of that argument I don't see where the dialogue

47:42 is in that and the normalization of of his effort to you know to to corrupt the electoral college and reverse the outcome of the 2024 election is a thing that just >> yeah it was pretty depressing >> yeah and it's but it's now it's now built This is what we saw the other day, you know, with a with a crazy talk about did you attend a basketball game in Atlanta. It's the backtory there is is we're normalizing, you know, the what what Jack Smith investigated, which was the effort to, you know, overturn the election. Question over here. >> Yeah. My question is just about um you know, looking forward to 2028. Um, and I think Sam and Tim might be able to answer this with a little bit more um, honestly than maybe Liz can in her role as a campaign consultant, but I'm

48:28 curious just looking forward to the 2020 election. >> Rank your top 2020 haters. Okay. 1 to 10. >> Was that really the question? >> Sorry. >> Was that really the question? >> Yeah. I'd be curious to like [laughter] who you think, you know, especially like being on the right, like the most dangerous candidate for Democrats to nominate would be. Um, and then maybe also like who you think the most likely candidate would be. And then also like kind of what that process is going to look like like for us like the voters that are you know gonna see like these people throw their names in and like with just how wide open it's going to be and it's going to be more wide open than a lot of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes like kind of what that's going to look like. >> Do you want to go first? >> Sure. [laughter] >> Um so when you said dangerous candidate you mean from a Democratic perspective who would be the riskiest? Is that what you meant? >> Strongest. >> Like like the strongest?

49:13 >> Strongest. Yeah. Okay. >> Yeah. I I'm I'm not really good at these prediction games, I suppose. Um I will just say like we we definitely as the pundits especially like we don't have a crystal ball and we're we're often quite wrong. So don't listen to me. um the history. But um I I will say I I I come back in into um my first presidential election I covered was the 2008 Democratic primary and like the entire conversation in that moment uh was really it's really risky to nominate a black man named Barack Obama. Um like that's that's a huge risk. and the

50:00 country was just like Bush was not Trump level like problematic for Democrats but if you guys are being honest like you all hated Bush. Um and so everyone was like fixated on this and of course Obama was able to not only sort of transcend that but he put together this incredible coalition. I don't know there's no Obama out there and I don't want to give shine to the the guy that these two love the most. But like I look at a Pete Budajage and I'm and I'm wondering about like are we just sort of overthinking it, right? Like oh yeah, he's young and gay and oh man, we can't possibly Democrats can't possibly win with someone like that, but like why not? >> Yeah, I um I I have a like probably a more satisfying answer about the or not satisfied because you're not going to

50:45 like it, but um I have a more clear vision of what's happening on the Republican side. I I just think that a lot of progressives and people on the left just underrate JD Vance cuz he's so unappealing. Like I mean you just look at him and you just are like I just I just want somebody to slap you in the face and you know and so he's just you know like the physical revulsion that comes with JD makes it hard to kind of assess him but he like has been very deaf at navigating the Republican internal uh issues, you know, and deaf at navigating Trump and also kind of separating with him on the war. I gotten kind to kind of a I got a little too hot with Jonathan Swan on a podcast recently. I had some regret cuz I was just like, he's getting away with it. [laughter] You're like, it wasn't Jonathan Swan's fault, but I was like venting my frustrations. He's kind of

51:31 getting away with this with like like being the VP during this war and also kind of being the one that was against the war. So, I think JD is better than people think and um I think he'll be the Republican nominee and I think it'll be harder to beat than people think. And um on the Democratic side, I I just like somebody's going to have to rise to the moment. Like I don't I'm not really I nobody really is not like obviously Pete has a lot of skills no doubt. Um but like you you have to win black voters to win the Democratic nomination. That'll be a huge challenge for him. Asaf I Assaf has a lot of skills. Asaf is like goes against what a lot of the other conventional wisdom is though. A lot of people have said since Kla and Trump that like you really need somebody that is very comfortable in their own skin on social media and can communicate, can go

52:16 on podcasts. John Awam isn't good at any of that. John Awam's good at like 2008 politics. Like he's really good at speeches, you know, and um and I think that he's skilled obviously at at winning in Georgia, but I don't know, can he do a presidential presidential campaigns are very different than Senate campaigns, but I I I think he's super talented. So I and or somebody else could kind of emerge and demonstrate. I I don't think there's any clear person right now on the Democratic side that is to me that like stands out. >> Yeah. And I would I'm not going to rank. I'm I'm I'm very biased, but I I like I the candidates I like are tend to be >> You can tell everyone who you're biased for. They may not. >> I was a senior adviser for Pete Buddha Judge um in 2020. I did it as communication [applause] media. Um >> it's the campaign team was Chasten,

53:02 Pete, and Liz. >> Yeah, it was. Yeah. [laughter] >> And Liz called me and I was like, "Are you having a psychotic break?" >> Yeah. Yes. But I but to that point um how the 20 28 uh primary will unfold is this and I think that we don't to that point we don't know what's going to happen and there are a lot of big names who are being floated right now a lot of people at the top of polls right now um and it's going to change and the one thing I learned from the pete experience and we talked about this you know backstage before with a group of Dartmouth Dems is that like when I started working for Tim thought I'd had a psychotic break. Other friends of mine thought I'd like lost a bet. Um [laughter] but the but you just you just don't know. And so as

53:50 you're evaluating candidates, you know, and the amazing thing about being here in New Hampshire that I saw up close at Dartmouth is you can actually like go up to them and like literally touch them. That's how close you get to them here is like go up and see all of them. >> Can I interject a quick question here? Don't touch. >> Yeah. As long as there's consent. >> Yeah. [laughter] Do you think it'd be good for the Democratic party to have the first in the nation primary in New Hampshire or is that >> Of course. Yeah, I'm I'm completely biased and I you know I I have worked with um four years ago when um the Biden administration when the Biden White House was you moving South Carolina to the front, I I I worked with the New Hampshire Democratic Party. Um but the you know the goose was sort of cooked. Can't imagine why. But the um when it comes to the uh to all this is to

54:38 understand that it whoever is in the lead right now may not even make it to New Hampshire. And like take the opportunity. This is the most wideopen presidential primary in the Democratic party that we've had in decades. Really? I think it's the most wide open we've had since 92 because I think in 2008 you essentially had a a de facto incumbent with Hillary Clinton, her husband. Yeah. Three candidates. >> Yeah. Probably 92. >> Yeah. So, and and >> so take the time to go Yeah. Oh, a little bit. But, so I would just what I was just I'll finish my point quickly is take the opportunity to go and see everyone and understand that someone who you may have never heard of um you might not have heard of right now that that person could end up being the nominee.

55:23 And so, I think it's really really important for everyone to keep an open mind. go out because you have the luxury and ability to go out and see them personally and go from there. >> Well, I want to thank all of you uh for coming and for joining [applause and cheering] us today. >> Really appreciate it. [applause]