INSANE URC CALLS?! Bulls vs Munster | The Money Man and Rich Pickings

0:07 Hi everybody and welcome to SA Rugby Magazine. I'm Kevin Ferguson and I have with me the incomparable Gavin. Um what's your show called? What what what's your part of your show? Uh Rich Pickings. >> Rich Pickings. >> Sorry. Sorry. Sorry about that. But uh >> welcome Gav. You're in the Dawkinsburg. >> Absolutely. You can see the sign behind my my head here. says, "Don't feed the wild animals," which my wife >> Does that mean Does that mean that you don't get fed either? >> Well, exactly. I was going to say, well, fortunately, I do the cooking. Otherwise, I probably wouldn't I'd be emaciated, but yeah, it's uh Yeah. No, it's been it's good. It's nice to be out in the in the mountain air. >> Yep. Uh and the picture you sent me, thank you. Beautiful. Looks great. You look very relaxed, very happy. >> Yeah, I'm Yeah. No, I am.

0:52 >> So, let's get into rugby. Last week, four for four. Um we we we tipped one thing which we thought was a certainty was the Lions 9 and a half. They won by 30 something points. Absolutely [ __ ] slapped Edinburgh. Um we told you to stay away from the Stormers rightfully so. They were favored by 27 and a half points. They >> did seven and then the Sharks and Bulls won easily. So it was a it was a good week for South African rugby. Four from four. And remember it's responsible. It's it's most bettors in this world lose money because they chase. >> Yeah. >> Now, if you can bet on one game in the week and say that's the game, that's that's where I'm investing my money. It's like stock trading. That's the investment. >> And you put you you say you got a uh

1:38 10,000. You put 2,000 on that. It's 20% investment. Uh pays back uh almost 100%. So you you'd be at four, you know, you'd be up 2,000. That's 20% of your bankroll. And people don't ever catch that on. They're just like, "Reload, reload." you know, bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet on everything you don't you can't do that folks if you want to be taken as a serious punter you have to pick and choose your moments and we picked and chose last week and got it right again you know >> yeah you don't have to be in every race you know >> anyway that's my that's my two cents for the week >> okay good >> so we have we have a we have an

2:23 interesting lineup Up this week we have Sharks playing Cardiff favored by 20.5. We have the Bulls. This is the one I like. Bulls versus monster favored by 13 and a half. >> The Lions are favored by 19 and a half over the Dragons. Probably going to stay away from that one. >> And we have Stormers. Sorry. Stormer is favored by 19 and a half over uh Edinburgh. Again, that's another interesting one. So, Gav, let's let's get into let's why you laughing at me? Get into the shots >> because because none of those are I mean, they're all a bit diff, you know, just those spreads cuz So, we we've got

3:10 no doubt who's going to win each game, but those those those spreads are are interesting. Okay. Are you going to start with the bull the bull the bull you said that the bulls bulls one >> well Cardiff played the Sharks I think it's on Friday night >> Friday night yeah >> play them in a hot and humid uh Durban >> um you know the I 20 and a half uh you know Cardiff are good at home and and you know and you can see that in the log they're very good at home on that Astro turf that they play on. But I'm but you know >> the Stormers went up 14- nothing very quickly in 10 minutes in in that game and I thought okay this could be a

3:55 biblical beating but they ended up fighting tooth and nail to to win the game. So I was surprised at that. And the Stormers aren't the team that blows teams away. The Sharks on the other hand might well be able to cover the 20 and a half, but I won't be taking any action in this game. >> Now, look, the one the one thing about last week, Kevin, is that the the Sharks won what 45 against Monster, >> but I don't think I've ever seen a team get get nil uh who deserved it as as as little as as Monster did. They they they weren't a team that should have been whitewashed. I mean that that was a much closer game. They the the the socks conflated the score the the the the

4:41 score with those late tries those two pimping tries right right at the end. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. The second one was fantastic. Jeez. >> Exactly. It was a fantastic and and and they they they did score two good good some good tries at the end. But, >> you know, I'm still not sure that I'm still not completely sure that the Stormers I mean, sorry, that the Socks were were really 45 points better than M. Well, I know that they weren't and I think they would be the first to admit that. And and that's okay because Monster actually a really good team. So, any win against Monster is something to celebrate. So, I'm not I'm not denigrating the Sharks when I say that. It's just what I'm about to say is that I'm not sure that I would go for sharks blowing someone away necessarily, particularly not in Durban. Particularly not if it is humid. Well, I'm not too

5:27 far from Durban at the moment and I suppose at Densenburg it doesn't get that humid, but I have been told it's it has been humid there this week. I mean, it's 3 hours away by car from from where I'm sitting. Um the Yeah, it's a Friday night game. 20 point. You say that they the bookies are giving a 20 point start. I I just I don't know if I would touch that. I think >> No, I think I think it's a red light. I think it's a red light special. Stay away from it. It's >> They've got to win by 21 points for you to collect your money. That's the handicap. 21. That's three converted tries. And Carter's that team that can probably stick in there. Um, you know, yeah, I would probably, if I had to bet, uh, Gav, I would I would take the plus

6:14 20.5 on Cardiff and have them start the game at 20.5 on the board and defend that. >> I I I would I would agree with that. Okay. So, so here's the thing about Cardiff is that unfortunately I did try to find out who's who's playing for them at the weekend, but I couldn't I couldn't find out. But, I mean, there's a reason why they've been in the top four of the log for much of the season. They've just dropped out of it now. Um it's not just because they're good at home. They have they have played some good games away from home and they will be missing a lot of I mean Cardiff are full of Welsh internationals. So I would imagine that they've got some of those guys back. I did try and reach >> Now when you say Welsh internationals, are you [ __ ] kidding me, bud? Are you Are you trying to Are you saying they're going to miss any Welsh internationals? Okay, that's my

6:59 only Welsh joke. >> Who misses Who misses Welsh internationals? Well, I mean, they did beat they did beat Italy last time out, remember? As as I would like to remind you having played their World Cup the week before. So, we having having tipped to Italy to win that game. No, but but I while I just think that Cardiff will there'll be some kind of response from Cardiff because in looking for their team, I went into the Mel Welsh media online and they have taken a bit of flack this week for for the way they lost to the Bulls last week. I think there's an expectation around Cardiff at the moment because they're high up on the log and let's face it, Kev, I mean, they don't have much of a Six Nations team at the moment. So maybe the people >> did Cardiff lose to the to the to the

7:45 Bulls who played who did >> Cardiff Cardiff Cardiff and Are you thinking that the Dragon the Dragons played the played the Storm? >> Oh my god. Yes. >> So that's another Welsh team. So I mean >> Yeah. >> I'm halted by the Welsh. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. No, it was Dragons who played the Bull the Stormers last week. Um No, no. Cardiff played the Bulls on Friday night. Last Friday night. and um and and they just weren't at the races. So, they were they were they were very poor for the first first half. They were a little bit better in the second, I think Cardiff were. Um they they'll have players back. So, so they're not the Dragons. So, so just be aware that we're not um >> Okay, I got that. So, I mean, the the the the Blues, the the Cardiff Blues were given a a sevenpoint head start by

8:31 by the Bulls last week as well. you know, a nice little uh mistake led to an a runaway try. >> So, you know, they even had they had it under seven points and then still managed to mess up um the Blues. So, you know, but at 20 and a half is it's three converted tries. And what happens in games if you're a betting man towards the end of the game, bud, you know, they might be up say 23 points, who know? 24 points. >> Yeah. And then the penalties start going against the the the Bulls because a referee just, you know, just seen enough of a beating and and they they go and score a proxy try and you lose your bet 17. You know, it's like in those type of games, you want to see you want to see the Bulls leading 30 nothing at halftime

9:17 to feel comfortable >> or the Sharks leading 300 at halftime. And my only concern in in La La Land is that you have so much humidity that it doesn't make for for great rugby. You know, there's a lot of mistakes, a lot of knockons, >> and it's not it's not not one where I want to have a 21 point uh minus handicap to to to to come in. >> So, well, I'm not I'm going to stay well away from that. And yeah, the Sharks might win >> the Sharks might win by 40, but I'm not playing, >> you know, Kevin. I don't know. I'm I'm I'm I'm thinking maybe I will play I would play with that just because Okay, so Cardiff have quite a good record in Durban. In fact, it was Cardiff who ended Shan Everett's career as Sharks coach. They won 35 nil there on a on a

10:05 wet day a couple of years ago and they decided they needed to change change their coach. So, it's not like Cardiff have haven't gone to Durban before and won. They are better they are probably the best of the of the Welsh teams as as their long situation will will suggest. Um it's a night game in Durban and the Sharks the Sharks for all the good things that their forwards are doing. I still don't think that they've got great attacking shape at the back. Um and that that youngster who came in Koulamin is is excellent but this is his chance to this is now a time when he needs to back up. So um this is how when we will probably see how good he is really. I think he is good. I think he's a real diamond but um you know but I've only seen him play once. So we're going to see him play again. Um JP Peterson for

10:51 some reason is leaving out Ed Wolf Murvver cuz they have named their team. So we do have the Shocks. I do have the Sharks team here. It's pretty much the same as last week's except Ethan Hooker who as you know his dad died the week before so he didn't play last week. Ethan Hooker has returned to the team and Bradley Davids is at Scrum half and not Grant Williams. Um >> Grant Williams had a blind last week, didn't he? >> Yes, he did. So Grant Williams isn't there this week, but then that's compensated by Ethan Hooker coming in. Uh I I don't know if I if you know if I really had to bet on on anything in that game, I would bet on the Sharks winning by less than 20. >> Yeah, that's that's like I said, if I had to bet someone put a gun to my head and said, "Money man, who you tell me who you it would be I'll take plus 20.5 on Cardiff.

11:36 >> I would I would say I would I would say that the that the Sharks would win 2817 or something like that. That's that's that's my sort of score that's I've got in my head. 3113 >> or some even that but I mean >> No no no no no 3113 is 19. Yeah 3113's 19 you lose. >> It's 18. Yeah it's not. Yeah. 19 you lose. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So stay away. It's it's okay to stay away. Like I said don't you don't have to get away. You can't win every race. >> Yeah. >> I don't know if I would stay away. I I just think I don't think the sto I don't think the stock socks are going to win by win by 30. I think that I think they win by 15. But anyway, so but as you say >> 15 16 17 >> let's be who knows be responsible

12:24 people. Anyway then we have sorry Gavin I'm just um we get on to the betting >> the next the next the next game if we're going in order is Bulls against monster because they play at 2 o'clock on >> Yeah. And this is the game I like, you know, because Monster have been atrocious at traveling. They it I mean, their home record's pretty decent, but their traveling record is abysmal. And they're sort of going down the table, you know, and they were absolutely clapped by the Sharks last week. And as we know, the Bulls to me are better outfit than the Sharks right now. >> They are. But but Monster

13:10 are also a very proud team and and and they'll be demanding a response. They've got to they've got to respond. Okay. So So I don't I don't like the 13 point. I think that the Bulls will win by more and I'll tell you why. It's because >> Exactly right. I think the Bulls win this by 20 30 points. Well, the thing is that the thing is the last time the last time Monster were in Ptoria, they beat the Bulls. >> The but what counts against Monster is that they've had a couple of they've had a couple of Irish internationals return to them this week. One of them was um Jack Crowley, the fly half, and he's of course the starting fly half for Ireland at the moment. So that's a big that's a big one. Other one is Craig Casey and then I think um Lombre. Um, so they they

13:56 haven't got that much returning cavalry. And what I would be concerned about if I was a monster fan is the way that they they got bullied last week by the Sharks pack because the Bulls pack the Bulls pack is probably better than the Sharks pack. >> I love that. I love that word. Returning cavalry. It's like >> I just love it. I think I think of General Kuster at that little big horn where he got absolutely mullled, you know. So, I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not too sure about this game because just monster are better than than what they delivered last week in Durban. They are better. They've beaten the Bulls in Ptoria not that long ago. Um yeah, and it was probably a possibly even a better Bulls team, a more settled Bulls team at

14:41 that particular point as well. It was in the season where where where a few weeks later um the Bulls went and thrashed Lensster at home. Uh yeah. So I'm not sure I would touch that that one either. 13 points. >> It's just it's just I'm looking at the 2:00 kickoff, Kevin. I'm looking at the 2:00 kick off and that's when overseas teams get blown away is when they get when they play on the half felt >> in the early afternoon. That's what happened to Edinburgh last week. >> Um >> but you know, I love this game. I love the minus3 on the Bulls and I'll be taking it for 2,000 this week. >> Okay. Okay. So, you go you think the Bulls are going to win by more than 13. >> Yep. Absolutely. >> Okay. Well, there are good reasons for that and and and one of them is that the is the the that monster pack hasn't

15:28 really been reinforced. The returning cav cavalry aren't aren't big guys. >> The returning cavalry aren't big guys. Um the >> it's more like a flute than a than a horn they're sounding out. You know, I I I look, I've just seen months of this year being terrible and they don't have the sames whatever their strength was in terms of their their academy and stuff like that and teams go through this and they're going through a bit of a downturn in terms of the amount of quality that they have and you just see it. I mean 45 if the Bulls by 13 and a half they should give it in give it up. >> Okay. So, so, so, so who they don't have now, who they would have had when they went to Ptoria before is Peter Omahoney.

16:14 Remember what remember what a talisman he was for for for for monster. So, so he's not there. And there's a couple of the other guys that um normal guys that you'd expect to tag Bing is is is still playing for monster. I mean, he's not there tomorrow. So, um, to me it's like, um, yeah, I look at that that monster team and and I and and I do think to myself, well, they're not they're not what they were. So, and so I would agree with you on that. It's just that they're such a proud club and even last week, they sort of, you know, you could see that, as I say, they they weren't they weren't a 45 mil team last week. It should it should have been a lot closer than that. So, that's why I say I'm not sure I would stop. I mean, I don't blame you for going for the for the more than 14, but

17:00 um if I was a betting man, which >> it's more than 13, bud. >> Okay. More than 13. >> 8% difference in in the grand scheme of things. So, it's like, and this is what people don't understand. They'll put bets on and go, "Oh, 13, 15, whatever." One point difference in a market is a big big move, you know? Yeah. I guarantee you that market on Friday, I guarantee you that market will have moved out to 15 and a half, which is a 17% change in the market. >> Well, after the teams have been announced. >> Yeah. >> Okay. That is the thing. We're not looking we we don't have the teams to hand. Um I just I just think that where where I agree with you is I just think that the Bulls have a superior pack and I just think that a 2:00 kickoff counts

17:45 against a visiting team. It's just at at altitude. Okay. We're not in midsummer at the moment, so it's not it's not it's it's not as bad as it would be if it was in January or December, but um it's uh yeah, >> you can you can get I don't know what the weather's supposed to be doing in Ptoria on on on Saturday. Um I can check the weather channel in in the next couple minutes and give you an update on that. >> Okay. >> Um let me just look at it now. I mean, if it's going to be a hot day, then I'm then then I'm then I'm taking the Bulls to win to win by more than 13. If if it's not, then I then I'm keeping my money. I'm not I'm not putting a bet on that game because it's a it's a difficult one to it's a difficult one to call. That 13 point is that 13 point

18:31 difference is a well, you said it yourself when we started. It's an interesting one. Um the the monster are good enough. You know, historically monster have have have responded very well. I mean, when they've been written off, they >> 29 degrees, sunny, bit overcast. 29 degrees on Saturday at 2 o'c. >> No, I'm going for I'm going for Bulls win by more than 13. >> Yeah. See, it didn't take much convincing, did it? >> No. No. I just looked at the weather. >> Exactly. Exactly. Some most punters don't even look at the weather. I mean, come on. >> Do you and and they don't and they don't they don't look at the difference between an afternoon game at Loftus and a night game. Okay. So, last week was a night game.

19:16 >> Well, we do. >> We do that for them, don't we? >> Yeah. >> This is part of the service we deliver. >> Yeah. So, I think I think I think in a in an afternoon game at Loftus, I think that I'd be surprised if Monster if Monster lost by less than less than 13. I look, I'm betting on the Bulls minus 13 and a half. I'm taking the points today. I'm locking that in because I know it's going to I know it's going to drift out to 16, 16 and 1/2, 15 and a half, somewhere like that. It's going to be a massive swing. And I might try and hit in between and arbitrage the bet. Arbitrageing is where you take a bet at 13 and then you take the bet at 16. So you you you you take minus 13 and then you take plus 16 and a half and then if

20:02 it hits 14 15 16 you double your winnings. >> Okay. So anyway, >> that sounds like that sounds like good good business. >> Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, I won't get too complicated with people. That's just something. the Lions versus the Dragons. You know, I've I've almost scrubbed off my Welsh tattoo because of the the way the state of Welsh rugby. You know, I know they're planning a victory parade for for that CEO woman that's running that business into the ground uh for beating Italy. Um because it technically we've won two games this year, Japan and Italy. >> Uh but I move on. I mean, I've beaten Wales up to death, haven't I? >> You have. you have. Yeah, we can move on. But

20:48 >> okay, so the Dragons were were very tenacious against the Stormers last week. They do have a very good defensive system. >> Um what they what they who they playing against those probably the best transition team in this in the league. I mean they the tries they scored last week, the Lions were phenomenal. I mean they they they had something like three times as many they had to the Lions had to make three times as many tackles as as as um Edinburgh last week. and um and and >> my only my only problem, >> sorry man, I know I'm I'm a rude bastard. >> My only problem is the 19 and a half points because after watching the Dragons >> take take take the Stormers into the depths and into the shallow.

21:33 >> I wouldn't take it. I wouldn't take it. >> I would stay away from that. I'd run a country mile, >> you know, and I might do watch a I'll watch all every game as I do and and bet some in live running if I see the points, you know, I I a game you can you can tell a game in the first 15 minutes where you think it's going to go. You've certainly got a lot more information, but I'll I'm staying away from this this game. So, I only got one bet so far this weekend is is the 2,000 on the Bulls to win by minus 13 and a half. And I'm staying away from the Lions and the Dragons. I just again it's a look the Lions may win by 35 but uh >> yeah I'm going to I'm I'm taking I'm taking the Sharks one. I'm I think the Sharks are going to win by less than 20 in Durban. >> Yeah I'm I I might have a tickle on

22:19 that. I might put a 500 on it. >> But um and then we come to the Stormers versus Edinburgh. Now the problem with the Stormers is they just don't blow teams away. you know, uh, Edinburghough is ripe to be blown off the park. Not doing well this year. I mean, 19, you're 19 and a half again with the Stormers. And I just think that, you know, I thought Sasha played a fantastic game last week. Well done, Sasha. Um, so, so he seemed to have writed some stuff and and, uh, but they're not a team that blows teams away. Uh, just seem happy to to to to win and try and get a bonus point. I'm staying away from this game as well, but I can't

23:04 >> there there's actually a reason why the Stormers don't blow the teams away. And it's the same reason why the Sharks don't blow the blow teams away in the same way that the Bulls sometimes do and the and and and the Lions do is that playing at sea level is it's it's it's a different game. You play up you play on the high felt and you fall behind against the Bulls and your your lungs are burning because you're playing in the mid-after afternoon game and you're not used to altitude. It's a very different experience. So, so the the Bulls historically when they've won invariably do win by a lot more because the last 20 minutes in those games can go absolutely pear shape for the for for the visiting team. So, so, so that's why that's why games that's why the Bulls blow teams away and the Stormers don't. It's not it's it's the fact that the

23:51 Stormers are playing most of their games at sea level where where there isn't quite the same discomfort shift for the for I mean we we spoke about this last year after Australia beat the spring box at Ellis Park. Remember I said that I said altitude is just a very weird thing and you get some freaky games and you get some freaky results. So So 19 points at Cape Town Stadium. Let's put it this way. If if the Stormers won, >> it's 20, but it's 19 and a half. So they got to win by 20. the Stormers if the Stormer if the Stormers win by 15 on Saturday on Saturday or Okay, let's say if the Stormers win by 17 against Edinburgh, I think that's a good win. >> It's >> Yeah, I think I think if if if the handicap had to be around 14 minus 14 and a half, >> I I'd be interested, but not at 19. Not not at Not when you got to win a game by

24:37 20 with that team, you know, >> because because Yeah. I don't know how bookies work. I mean, I don't know if they're reading too much into last week's game in Joberg. I mean, last week's game at Joberg was a it was at altitude and b they were resting a lot of their their Scotland internationals. So now they're getting back some of their some of their their big their big cavalry. They're getting back their >> bugle. >> Those guys are coming. >> And remember remember something else too. Yeah. is that next like the South African teams take I mean it appears that South African teams don't take the Champions Cup that seriously. I'm talking about Champions Cup now >> as opposed to to to the USC and the

25:22 reason for that is because of the logistics because they always have to travel and and sometimes if you get to the stage of the season it's not a good idea to send your full strength team to say Glasgow which is what the Bulls are doing next week. um you it's it's not necessarily a good good good idea to do that because it could compromise your URC but but for the overseas teams the Champions Cup is is often the big one and Edinburgh might be looking at what next week as well. So so in other words they they they they came back from the six nations they rest they rested all their their top Scot Scotland internationals but now they're sort of building towards towards their their next game which is in the Champions Cup. So, I don't know who they're playing against, but it's um it's it's there's good reason, I think, to believe that

26:08 Edinburgh will be a lot more competitive against the Stormers than they were against against the Lions. I do think that the Stormers will win emphatically, >> but when you when the Stormers win emphatically in Cape Town, um emphatically doesn't necessarily mean 30 points. It it can mean 15 points. It can mean 27. Um, >> you're making sense, Gav. I mean, what's happened to you? The Den The Duckenberg obviously suits you, man. It's like the >> So, I'm just saying you, >> huh? >> I'm with you completely. >> Wow. I've never seen this version of Gavin. You, Bud, stay there. Just I'll pay for your accommodation. You stay there for a while. >> Um, >> so I I agree with you. The 14 points, if

26:54 it was 14 points, I would take it. I would say I would take it. But uh 19 points is too much. 20 points. Expecting them to win by 20 points is is actually is actually a bit insulting to Edinburgh because Edinburgh actually are although their log position doesn't show it. They are actually a better team than that. >> So >> So I agree but it seems like we're in perfect harmony this week. >> So I don't want to trifle I don't want to mess with that. I just want to like the zen thing. >> So to sum summarize >> we like the Bulls to win. We like the Bulls to win by what's it? What's there? 13 points. >> 13. We like the Bulls to win by 13 or more. >> Bulls to win by 13 and a half. Uh, no. We love the Bulls to win by 13 and a half. I do.

27:40 >> No, I think you're right. No, you gave me the weather forecast and I then I agreed with you. Yeah. >> Okay. Uh, we like the We like um the Cardiff Blues at plus 21 20 and a half. >> Yes. Yes. for a small bet. Yeah. The 2,000 on on on the Bulls to beat monster by by minus 13 and a half, 500 on the Sharks to L to to on on the Blues Cardiff Blues not to lose by 21 or more points and the other two games were staying the hell away from. >> I agree. Yeah, I would stay away. Yeah, I would stay. I mean, Dragons can dig in. The Dragons are a good defensive team. They they could they could bring the lines the lines down to their level. So, um, it's I can't remember what the

28:27 spread was there, but it was too much. >> Yeah. But >> I want to thank you. It was been a great show. I don't want to I don't want I don't want to mess with the with with our with our karma and peace and all this tranquility. I think we've we've nailed it again. Uh, make those bets. Stay out of the ones. Don't get in every race. Stay out of the ones where you don't know. We know two we we know for sure that that we think the Bulls are going to win. And we and we think that the that the Sharks aren't going to win by 21 or more. That's enough. That's two races. You got a good chance of winning. Limber up and get in those. Stay out of everything else. Hope you have a successful week. Everybody like and subscribe or or or subscribe and unlike um and uh may every bet be a winning bet

29:13 this weekend and uh good luck. some some some nice sports on again and we'll sit again next week and and and pick through the bones. >> Thanks Kev. >> Thanks Kevin. What a what a pleasure. Go and rip that shirt off and and give the Tarzan to the Draensburg. >> I'll do that. >> Okay. Thanks. >> Cheers. Cheers. Bye. Cheers. Bye.