美股「雙重泡沫」大逃殺！費半狂瀉、恐慌指數飆新高 傳奇投資人嚇到警告：慘跌70%不要接刀！【#環球大戰線】20260708-P3 葉思敏 孫大千 苑舉正 彭華幹

0:00 Is the double bubble in U.S. stocks about to burst? What I am particularly concerned about today is The collective plunge in chip stocks that occurred in the past two days Funds are now being withdrawn from the U.S. stock market Panic index soars to new highs Buffett made a special warning at this time Will the U.S. stock market plummet by as much as 70%? Now there are predictions made by experts On these issues today We will care together Welcome viewers and friends in the message area Leave a message and interact with us If you think next The AI bubble is about to happen Leave a message and write 1 If you think it's not too early Leave a message 2 Do more interactions with us Today’s three hot topics The one who comes to care is the first one let's see Now includes Micron And the chip stock SanDisk has plummeted. And it includes half the fee A single-day drop of more than 4%

0:47 Represents the market’s re-evaluation Is there a valuation for AI chips? Is the AI bubble about to emerge? The second thing Buffett also warned What is the stock market like now? He said it was opened in a church next to the casino. Plus experts warn that AI is about to bubble Investors are investing in the future of AI now Or chasing the tech bubble? Be careful with this Wait a moment to care The third thing A direct warning from Wall Street Talk about the problems facing the current stock market Just outside the price bubble And profit It said that this profit is also a bubble double crisis U.S. stocks have the highest correction Maybe even 50% Will it happen immediately? On these issues today Audience friends want to come and pay special attention Today I came to see that there is an AI bubble in the US stock market. part of the U.S. stock market on Tuesday

1:33 Chip stocks become the hardest hit area Whether it's Micron or SanDisk On a single day, let’s see Fei Ban It also plummeted This is not an ordinary rollback Is it because the AI has gone too far? Now includes this index representing technology stocks The panic index reaches a new high of 27 The largest since 2002 a number the highest number The market is no longer worried about just the broader market But particularly concerned about Also worried about technology stocks Is detonation now coming from Wall Street? Also a special warning about the double bubble what we just mentioned Have the prices increased too much? Profitability has been rising on Wall Street corporate profits But can it really keep up? If a company makes a profit Or is it just functioning normally?

2:20 Estimated S&P 500 valuation now Will soar to 67.6 times A super high Shiller price-to-earnings ratio This also means that historically All asset bubbles A number with the highest peak So don’t underestimate this. a number Another expert also pointed out that If the illusion of profit is exposed The stock market may have the highest correction up to 50% Now you can see that investors are also very nervous Massive withdrawal from U.S. stocks The biggest net outflow in three months Where does the money go? Flow to Japanese stock market Recorded largest net inflow in 7 weeks What do you think of the structure of this double bubble? Will it officially trigger the big collapse of AI? then bubble What do members think?

3:06 I think about the current situation of the stock market If you compare this to what it was back then, 2008 to 2000 These two financial crises In fact, they are all quite similar. I remember in 2008 During the financial crisis that time Greenspan, Chairman of the American Federation I once said a very classic saying at that time called irrational exuberance What is irrational prosperity? I just don’t know why the stock market goes up. Why should you buy stocks Because I believe it will rise tomorrow Why are you sure it will go up tomorrow? Because I don't know either That’s what everyone does anyway So what is everyone betting on? Bet I won't be the last rabbit This is the game Just playing who is the unlucky one The last rabbit Then everyone thinks won't happen to me So I bought it today It will rise tomorrow

3:52 Then I can definitely profit from it This is called irrational exuberance And this irrational prosperity Already in global stock markets last a long time so you say global stock markets Are we on the verge of a bubble? Of course Let me give you a simple example Everyone has seen the stock market plummet and plummet recently. Any piece of news will drop 1,000 points. Then two days later Another day passes It rose back to 800 points again Then many people will ask Then why did it drop 1,000 points yesterday? It rose back to 800 points today no reason so why Just because it's fragile A little bit of trouble Everyone thinks Incredible I want to run quickly Looks okay again I ran back again So actually There is already a stock market bubble On the verge of collapse So this edge Of course there is a reason for this The most important factor I just mentioned

4:38 It’s because we were originally in the stock market all investment in this wave They are all based on AI concept stocks. Whether it is the research and development of this large model of AI Or the hardware of AI infrastructure These companies are like this But the key question is Just look at one thing Just now Simin showed you this Shiller Price to Earnings Ratio Do you know what price-to-earnings ratio is? The P/E ratio means I buy this stock. How soon can I get my money back? 67 years It means I buy this stock I may not get my money back until I die. But why do people still buy it? So when you look at the P/E ratio When it reaches this level Actually of course If you invest according to normal logic He will start actuarial calculations for these investors So maybe I'm hitching a ride on this In the process

5:23 I'm just betting But there is a possibility of winning and losing in gambling. So at this stage The reason why everyone is getting nervous In fact, the most important points what is the first reason Because AI companies are not making any money Just so you know Several major AI companies in the United States Everyone is familiar with it Like OpenAI Like this Google In fact, these companies basically make no money so far Except Anthropic makes money No one makes money We haven’t found a profit model yet So it's burning money every day They keep raising money After raising money, build a computing center Go burn more money You all know how quickly money can be burned I remember the year before last I saw this OpenAI Raised US$6.5 billion in the market I think $6.5 billion is amazing

6:11 Our company needs to raise US$100 million It’s already not easy its $6.5 billion After raising US$6.5 billion, The next two days I saw it build a budget center Spend another $5 billion so i want to say You just finished melting it Now it's all burned down so you will find These AI companies continue to raise money in the market Constantly short of money The same goes for including SpaceX After SpaceX’s previous listing Everyone went crazy to buy it But look at Tesla till now Didn't make any money Just SpaceX is another dream So when everyone starts to return to reality I found out that none of these technology companies are making money. So how will it continue? Don't even talk about it All software and hardware companies now are playing with the same money Making a circulating game I've told you before You'll find Nvidia investing in OpenAI

6:56 Maybe billions Tens of billions But what are the conditions? OpenAI Going to talk to Nvidia buy chips So this money Just invest in OpenAI from Nvidia But OpenAI goes back again Buy a chip from it Then this same amount of money Flow it like this It becomes the profit of the two companies So in this process Actually What these tricks raise The current state of the stock market Of course it will collapse So now I meet another one A more dangerous situation We were just talking about September in the United States Will interest rates rise? Warsh says rate hike looks likely Of course, Trump will never let him raise interest rates. But in this sawing process, The key is Is inflation in the United States solved? If U.S. inflation is not solved Even if Trump doesn’t want to raise interest rates

7:43 Warsh must raise interest rates Otherwise, you will become a sinner of the Federal Reserve. So in this case You will see global funds Start pulling back Because when the U.S. dollar starts to raise interest rates This is the most realistic I changed the money into dollars Put it in the bank as a fixed deposit Collecting interest is better than taking risks in the stock market So this so-called zero-risk investment Just charge interest So if the dollar next Interest rates to be raised starting in September Global funds are beginning to withdraw Then of course the stock market will support upwards Momentum to continue the upward attack will begin to gradually slow down This is the pressure that both parties are facing now So on the one hand we should pay attention to Including the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next this one thing There is a second thing What we just said Price bubble and profit bubble Now is the problem facing AI

8:29 So we continue to see Three financial tycoons from the United States Begin the latest warning for the AI industry They are all very unfavorable This is a very serious matter first to see He was the one who successfully predicted the 2000 bubble. tech bubble The person who was involved in the 2008 financial crisis Jeremy Grantham He said the U.S. stock market is now in a historic bubble The AI craze is at the heart of the bubble He also said that AI bubble Maybe in the next few days or months Even break within a few years Fear of a repeat of the tech bubble of 2000 He estimates that the decline of some companies will reach 70%. The second expert is an American economist Wu Zhiwei He predicts that the AI bubble may explode in the second half of the year third expert Everyone knows Buffett He said that now the financial market Like a church next to a casino

9:16 Investors’ speculative sentiment It has reached a very dangerous level What do you think? Don't worry, Daqian. no one would think I am the last rabbit Don't worry Because Buffett He made it very clear and direct. He said that this has arrived Never seen it Americans’ gambling instinct is so strong now To be honest Americans are not the only ones with strong gambling habits Taiwanese people are the best in the world in gambling Definitely more than Americans No. 1 in the world Koreans are almost the same But it can’t compare to us Taiwanese I tell you All four loans are coming from the same house. Actually, to be honest AI itself is definitely a sustainable industry

10:05 But the overheating of money caused by AI The stock market is overheated Be honest That is no longer within the scope of rationality So they all proposed Like that Grantham He just talks Grantham the man Let me introduce in particular When he was in 1999 He said there was going to be a dot-com bubble soon Technology companies will fall apart What he said came true half a year later He is predicting the 2008 financial tsunami Everything was fulfilled by him He is better than Buffett What did Grantham say? He said it was very simple Now I have started selling US stocks You all started buying all the time, right? I have already started selling So this Jeremy Grantham

10:50 He actually said he saw it Tell me what the result of a swarm of bees will be He was also very conservative this time Said I didn’t know it would be next week Next month or next year? I don't know which day it is but it will happen Because it's too hot now Then Buffett himself also said What he said is inexplicable I'll just say I tell you The current stock market is like a casino church next to what does this sentence mean What he means is that Casinos are all about speculation, right? That's gambling Casino That church is rational makes sense So let’s talk about this But the current stock market Like a church next to a casino

11:36 It's almost like a casino This is what he means It just means irrational irrational But actually Are you an AI startup? When it is going to build a computing power center how much does it cost under this situation You know what to say In fact, stock market bubbles and capital bubbles It can happen as soon as you wake up Especially I want to talk about Musk Musk this guy What space is he talking about? I was also given a lecture by Grantham. give a scolding He said he was going to immigrate to Mars i can tell you Maybe in two or three generations It's impossible to achieve But the funding it attracted

12:23 The irrationality of investment has caused the expansion of the entire market It will definitely turn into a bubble in the end It's just a matter of when it breaks out So we think Will the double bubble in the U.S. stock market burst? Will Just which day So investors Ultimately we must be cautious You must think about it Buffett said to put it in gold and silver Think about it, does it make sense? Then let's also observe So this wave of irrational investment Even hype Let us learn some lessons from historical experience Is it really likely to happen again? Because this economist from the United States His name is Besenbinder He is a college professor in Arizona He said he had done such research Several things that have happened since 1926

13:09 You can see it all Popular companies suffer the most First, the star stocks of the Internet bubble era At that time, WorldCom and Lucent Technologies Then the bubble burst Let’s look at bank stocks before the financial crisis Also highly favored Something happened later Then come this year’s electric car craze Including Vietnamese electric car brands After VinFast went public, highly favored Now investors are also losing money What does the teacher think? Hottest Investment Stocks Will it be the biggest invisible bubble? I think there is one in here A very important key Please understand a little bit Just tell me why this market It's actually our dream In fact, it is wrong to talk about price-to-earnings ratio We should talk about this dream ratio This is what I dreamed about in 1967 That's pretty short Some people dreamed that it would happen seven or eight hundred years ago

13:55 Everyone needs to understand this The market has such a structure So what the world is saying now Relatively speaking A crazy market Probably the United States, South Korea and Taiwan Then if I went to that bank a while ago, Very many of us It's this kid They all asked their parents to mortgage their houses. Buy this SpaceX In other words, Taiwan’s AI stocks That Taiwan stock market It’s simply gone up previous words Just being arrogant I felt incredible when it reached 10,000 points. And now it’s almost 50,000 points Then this change is too big right? So now we I'm joking not true But if my assistant’s grades cannot be handed in, They won't do it Stock trading is much better than being an assistant Everyone needs to know a little bit about this That is to say, you asked here Because from 1999 to 2000

14:40 That Dot-com bubble I am in Taiwan i know very well Then we must emphasize This technology stock The reason why it attracts attention easily Just this time AI Compared to that time Dot-com The reason is the same Just say anyone The development of this technology As long as once it is Even a philosopher can tell it What story will it have? Then it must have something to invest in There will be a dream that fulfills you You will feel that a new era is coming Dot-com is like this In fact, we do live in In the world of Dot-com It was just because of your second reason at that time That is to say, the entry barrier for technology companies is too low. Basically all AI companies These people were all born paupers Don't you think it's strange? If you were in the industry before You have to be the second generation of rich people, right? In the past, they didn’t have to pay for it. Just one head is enough words next to us We also rely on our brains to do business, right?

15:26 His father is me I don't believe that his father is from the rich generation Absolutely not, right? Absolutely not But technology companies have this characteristic So they're basically springing up like mushrooms after a rain. Let's all work together Let's see who can survive it Then the third reason That is to say so far This is the development of AI have suffered Just like the original 1999 Dot-com is the same Let’s talk about the U.S. government Then this time Chinese government catches up In 1995, the Chinese government failed to catch up Then the United States itself will easily collapse What about AI this time? It won't collapse so easily At least it will take longer Everyone will be under the framework of the Sino-US game Let’s look at the development of AI again So if there is talk about the game between China and the United States, Remove this factor There's not much left inside. Just like that Dot-com But this time China is joining in China itself has the power of the government

16:11 So it can This foam can last longer Maybe washing powder is better So the bubbles are pulled slowly The pull will be bigger Thank you, Teacher Yuan Then let's take a break Be back soon