My New Portfolio for 2030 💸

0:05 align our portfolio based on each market condition . Suppose we buy the star stocks in the last bull market and average them out, thinking that they are now falling. Our portfolio would only go down. What is this? Basically, imagine a retired batsman who won a lot of matches before. But again, it is not right to select him in the team and expect him to win matches even now. Not only the points we have discussed in this video so far, but also the points that we will not discuss from here. There are many of you who have invested in the stock market after Covid. I am going to talk to you all in mind because if you can focus on and implement these points, not only will you protect your investment but you will also be able to grow it much better. If you've watched this video up to this point, you probably

0:52 already understand. How did I redesign my portfolio based on the current market conditions and what stocks did I pick? Hi guys, welcome to Money Purse. Let's Learn Something New Today. Today's topic is not a little theoretical, but I will try to explain it to you by connecting it to our practical life. When I was very young, I was just learning about cricket, and I used to read about it in the paper. Cricket, especially for us today, used to be in the paper during the last championship period. Let's say for example, when cricketers went to international countries, they would talk about the matches and pitches before the match started, and they would write about it.

1:37 Every time I read it, I had a doubt. What was the big deal about the pitch back then? Let's say our guys went to another country and built a full grass pitch there. There were controversies related to it. I thought, "What's the point of playing cricket? What's the big deal about the pitch?" But after I grew up a little, that is, after I knew cricket better, I realized how important the pitch actually plays because after we win the toss, whether we should bat first or bowl first is decided based on that pitch. Now, let's say it's IPL now. If we look at IPL matches, how are the pitches actually designed? Why do cricketers score 180 or 200 in 20 overs? Why did Sunrisers Hyderabad score 287 in 20 overs?

2:27 Pitches are made to score above 200, so the pitch report may not play such an important role here, but at the same time, if the same players go to, let's say for example, New Zealand or England or Australia, then the batsmen who can score above 250 in 20 overs will struggle to score 250 in 50 overs after going there. And in fact, in Test cricket, they will struggle to score 250 in an innings. Because whatever the pitch condition is there, those conditions will be there. So even if the player's capability is the same, the player will have to change his strategy depending on each condition. Let's say a player is playing a T20 match. If he is playing T20, what is our expectation? Not ours but the commentators. When they step onto the pitch, they should

3:14 hit sixes and fours from the first ball. We know that when they try to hit a four, the wicket will fall. But it doesn't matter if the wicket falls, we won't worry too much, we'll see if they can hit. Let's say a player like Pujara is selected in the T20 team, then automatically he comes and plays defensively, we will say why was such a player selected? At the same time, when the same player comes to Test cricket, he hits shots like T20 as he likes. Do you remember one of Sunil Gavaskar's commentary that became very popular? Round wit this time you will play that it down to that man of third man. When Rishabh Pant hit a shot and got out, he said, "Stupid, stupid, stupid." They even took out its relative advertisement. Recently, advertisements are also being seen in the IPL . So why does the same

4:00 comment writer appreciate the same player when he plays the same shot at one time, but when he comes to another game, why do they call him stupid and stupid when he plays such shots? So what does this mean to us? So, it is clear that the shots we select and our game strategy should be different depending on each condition. Similar thing. Now let's come to the matter of our investing. A common mistake investors make in this regard is that just as in cricket, we keep changing the shots we select based on the format of the game we are playing, the pitch conditions, and the weather, and our game plan. Similarly, in investing, it is very important to align our investment strategy with the market conditions . I think you

4:46 understand clearly from this example by now . And in fact, I tried to explain this topic to you by taking this example. Many people might not understand it if I went directly to it. I took this example because it is important. If you like it, don't forget to share your views in the comments section below and like the video . Now, when it comes to the markets, let's assume we have a bull market. We have optimism and investor confidence at full-speed, and we are getting a lot of mutual funds and IPOs. Back to back, we see multiple IPOs opening in a single day . And not only the IPOs but also the news coming from companies is back-to- back good news. This causes our markets and stocks to hit higher highs and higher lows. As investors, we too tend to forget about risk and

5:34 focus only on the risk-return ratio. In such market conditions, investors make money even without any strategy . And our focus also automatically shifts from long-term wealth creation to quick money making as our strategy. And at a time like this, when C-IPs come out, it is not based on fundamentals but on how much the gray market premium is, whether we should participate in IP or invest, all the rations change. And in fact, how does the base effect in bull markets also play out for us? Every bull market starts from a previous slow down or if the economy is very weak or has the worst conditions . So, whatever the previous numbers of the companies are, they are not all the same as the low numbers. Now, whenever we

6:20 get better numbers, due to the base effect, we see that the numbers released by companies consistently show very good growth. Let's say some companies deliver even better numbers, but if valuations become more expensive, even if companies deliver bad numbers and managements give positive comments, we won't see a big correction in stocks . Let's say we see sideways market conditions, but the market sentiments are a bit neutral. And whatever the news that comes in the market, some positive news comes, some negative news comes, and we keep observing the decrease in the number of mutual funds, NFS, and IPS . And you will also see the prices of stocks fluctuating within a range . If you look at the current market, stocks rise and fall. And

7:05 they are all in the same price range. Sometimes, we see the direction of stocks on the downside . This is actually creating confusion in the minds of investors. And they may have doubts about the stocks or strategies they are following . Can anyone relate to this and tell me if the decisions I made were correct ? And how do you feel about the current market conditions? And in fact, how does our base effect play out in this sideways market? That is, we mostly get sideways markets after a bull market. Therefore, in a bull market, all the companies, all the numbers they deliver, are delivering much higher numbers to us. What happens in this sideways market is that we don't see much growth due to the base effect. While some companies have delivered decent growth to us, most companies are

7:50 delivering weaker numbers to us. If we had started corporate earnings in the last two quarters, we would have seen similar conditions . And sometimes, even though some companies deliver good numbers, you don't see any momentum in the stock price. That's when you actually see comments like this on social media. Those numbers are already reflected in the price, and valuations are high. If there is a bad result or bad news, you will immediately hear some commentary, which means that there will be a terrible pain in terms of those stocks . You should not hold such stocks in these stocks. All of these comments not only confuse investors but also drive down stock prices and valuations . Think of it like we saw in a bear market, where pessimism was very high . We are also seeing stock prices fall significantly. Investors also show interest in withdrawing their money, but

8:36 our interest in investing fresh has clearly dried up in bear markets. And IPOs and NFS's count is not only significantly down, but also in fact, we are getting back-to-back bad news . Like, if we want to relate, you should look at October to March. IPOs and NFs have completely failed. We have received back-to-back bad news. And in fact, how has the mindset of investors changed during this time ? The stock market is the worst and the best. And in fact, if our Ask Money Purse has regular viewers, you can relate to this . Kalpa of Comments is a previous pick in our Ask Money Purse . Many of our viewers commented that I asked my father if I brought the money, FD money, and invested it in the stock market. I made a mistake. If only I could recover my money, I would not go back to the stock market. We have seen such comments, right? So, all such comments

9:23 come in a bear market. But here, how does the base effect play out for us? In a bear market, all the numbers come in weak terms, so even if companies deliver a little growth from here, we still see good growth . And we see a re-rating in the stock price. And in fact, in a bear market, we also find the valuation of stocks very cheap . Otherwise, remember that a bear market is a rule of thumb in a sideways market. Many investors make this mistake and lose their money. The winners in the last bull market are the same as those in every bull market. They fall, right? When they fall, their peak prices become an anchor for them, and this price would be ₹1000. Don't make the mistake of saying that if a stock is available for 500 now, it is available at a 50% discount and then rounding it up to an average, because in every bull market,

10:10 we will have new emerging winners . We're not talking about companies that deliver consistent growth here . There are very few such companies . While we have exceptional winners in every bull market, such stocks are the ones that have experienced a fundamental change in the companies that have grown exponentially in the last bull market . We used to say that stock prices had fallen without us noticing them, and that if we average down the price anchoring, this would become a big blender, which is what we would take as a portfolio related statement. And here's another pro tip . In a bear market, if we initially pick stocks and want to earn multi-bag returns, we should try to track the fundamentals of stocks that touch the fresh 52-week highs during the bear market period, or stocks or sectors that touch them,

10:57 because such companies have the potential to become winners in the next bull market . Now as a long-term investor in the stock market, it is very important to learn to face these three phases, which are bull face sideways and bear face markets. Just like our cricketers adapt their short selection and game strategies based on the pitch condition and weather condition, we too can create substantial wealth only when we adapt. Now, whoever is blindly averaging the star companies that have grown well in the last bull face, they are now correcting, so you are doing a wrong step, so never do that. Try to make decisions based on earnings only. So, I've given you a tip, how can

11:42 we find out in advance the early winners in a market like this, that is, the companies and sectors that will be winners for us in the next bull market? That is, if the stocks or sectors are touching their 52-week highs, the companies that are touching the fresh 52-week highs are most likely to be the leaders in the next bull market . Like, if we want to talk about examples, if you have observed in recent times, it could be diagnostic companies, private banks, some NBFCs, all these are examples. Many sectors and many companies have touched their fresh 52-week highs . Try to focus on such companies . Second tip: This is a very important tip. We don't invest in stocks based on whether we have received an order or not. In a bull market, we may

12:29 not have orders based on positive news, but we do not have them in a bear market, which is a sideways market. So focus on real cash generating companies. The reason I want to focus on these real cash generating companies is because these companies will actually lead the next bull run . Because for us, even small companies in a bull market find it very easy to raise capital. They can raise capital through an IPO, through a QPA, or in some other way . Even debt capital is available. Equity capital is also very easy for them to obtain. But raising capital in these market conditions is very, very difficult. So what happens is that if companies are able to generate cash internally, if they redeploy that cash in the right way, whether it's increasing distribution strength or

13:14 increasing brand strength, they will grab the market share of their competitors. So, when we see a recovery stage next time, they will automatically have already increased that much in the growth stage, so they will be able to grow even better than their competitors. When their business grows better, we automatically see growth in the stock price as well. So, if we are not like that, we should focus on real cash generating companies rather than stocks that grow based on news, because even if they grow based on news, they will still fall. Where are the real cash generators? They are the ones going to create wealth for you. Now coming to my personal portfolio, before sharing about the alignment strategies I have adopted, I thought I would tell you one thing.

14:00 So far, I have taught you how to follow the sideways market in a bear market. Practically, I have told you how I redesigned my portfolio based on examples. I am sharing a clarity, an idea, based on which you can study. But do n't follow blindly because in terms of these businesses, unless you increase your core competence and your conviction, you cannot actually hold those stocks. So, with that said, try to study these examples, but don't follow them blindly. And before I share with you what stocks I've added to my core portfolio, I thought I'd ask you something . You must have been adding a lot of companies in the last six months. Try to share in the comments section below which companies you have added to your portfolio

14:45 . So, it's a matter of clarity whether our viewers, our subscribers, or whatever stocks they picked are fresh . It could be some stock names or themes. If you like something or find it comfortable, be sure to share it in the comments section below . And also, I have tried to tell you something by connecting cricket to this video, saying that this complicated topic is easy for you all to understand in a slightly differentiated method. If you like this effort, be sure to like the video. And also, many of your friends and family have started investing in the stock market post-Covid, and many of them may be posting about companies that have lost money in the bull market, saying that they have fallen blind . So, please try to share this video with them so that they don't lose money and also create wealth in this market condition . The first

15:31 step I took was to look at the last bull market, where many companies gave us very good returns. There are some companies whose valuations have increased significantly . So, there are stocks that seem very expensive to me, not just expensive stocks, but also some actually news-based stocks that you might say are growing well . So based on that news, some will increase and some will not. So there are some companies that haven't grown that much and some that are fundamentally good, but the current market conditions are n't playing out positively for them. That actually means it takes them longer to earn. There may be losses. I have booked profits from some of our portfolios and losses from others. So, I deployed the cash generated in five types of companies . First, consumer tech companies. Now,

16:18 why did I focus on these consumer tech companies? Basically, these consumer tech companies grow if they disrupt our traditional business models . And actually, in the bull market, many people ignored many of these good companies, even those that were cash-generating and had strong balance sheets . So what happens when we ignore it is that basically all the companies with strong balance sheets and cash generating assets are trading at very expensive valuations. But the advantage of the last bull market is that we have high beta stocks in that bull market, and investors focus more on them, so we find all these at reasonable valuations . In fact, during the correction period in the last six months, we still found attractive valuations. So, if you have consumer tech, you can choose any of these companies, or travel tech companies. So,

17:03 if there are any such companies, try to focus on them because these are really good businesses and businesses that can be added to the core portfolio. All of these have the potential to create very good long-term wealth for us. In fact, in such market conditions, these stocks can deliver slightly better returns for us . And when it comes to my second portfolio edition, all our old subscribers will have an idea that in the last one to two years, whenever I spoke about SME stocks, I would have spoken either positively or negatively because at that time, SME stocks were at that level. So it always scared me. Because even now, the fear is SMS-related because out of 100 companies, only one or two will survive, and 98 companies may close. So, since there is such a risk, if I want to talk about it, even

17:49 on a public platform, I always have to be a little bit more fair. But now the reason for talking about SMEs is that in the last six months, one or two SM companies have committed fraud, and since that has come to light, many investors have approached SMEs with a bit of a cautious approach, or at least with a bit of fear, and the euphoria that was there has diminished to a certain extent. And in fact, the advantage of being an SMS relator for us is that what happens in a bull market is that they increase and increase abnormally due to the liquidity. They will fall even when the market falls because they are still in that liquidity . So volatility is very, very high. As a result, in the last six months, we have had interesting, good businesses and strong businesses at the ground level, which is 50-60%

18:35 correct. As far as SMEs are concerned, I'm giving you a tip: go to that Chittoorga website and try to study most of the SME companies that have corrected 50-60% from their highs in the last two years . And these include businesses that you are familiar with, meaning some may understand the diagnostic business, some may understand the consumer business, and you may be looking at that business in your local market. If you are looking, try to study those companies a little more deeply . Another beautiful thing is that it is very easy for us to approach promoters related to SME companies. It is a little difficult for us to approach promoters in big companies. But if you write an email to the company secretary related to SME companies, there is a

19:21 chance that we will get an appointment with the promoter. If you have any doubts, you can also ask the promoters. So this is the space where I feel like we have good companies, but in this fear, bad companies have fallen and good ones have fallen. Try to filter out some of these and pick good quality companies. Yes, I can definitely make good money now. As you all know, I have been open about my valuations and my positive stances regarding banks and NBFs . So I have added one affordable housing finance stock and also banks related, I feel that even if there are private banks, I think the large private banks are still trading at a reasonable valuation. And also, the steps taken by RBI in NBFCs

20:07 are definitely very positive in terms of NBFCs, so try to study any NBFCs that have large NBFCs, that is, NBFCs that have a large parental group backup. I feel like one of the star companies in the next bull market will come from here . We can see that clearly too . Recently, most of the 52-week highs have been hitting us from banks and NBFCs. Coming to the fourth edition of my portfolio, I personally believe that this year we will have tax-related advantages, including this tax advantage and also the pay revision. The benefit of these two may not have a big impact on us consumer companies, FMCC, but

20:52 who gets this tax benefit, namely affiliate spending? Those who already earn between 4 lakhs, 5 lakhs and 6 lakhs, will get any benefit. It is not additional. Those who earn above 13 lakhs or above 10 lakhs will have a major tax relief of a little bit. So if we think about their spending pattern, then mostly those who earn income above 10 lakhs, where do they spend? They spend a little bit on luxury . So luxury can be a car purchase, luxury can be a jewelry purchase, and luxury spending can be a travel-related spending. So here too, we will see a lot of spending in the next three to four years . So this is where we can actually make very good money and even in the QSR space, we are seeing early signs of same-store sales growth

21:38 recovery. So this is the space I have given to three names . When it comes to the next fifth edition, I have considered two diagnostic companies, one in SM and one in Mainboard. I feel the valuations are very attractive to me. So, I added that, saying that even in healthcare, we have domestically oriented branded generic companies that are not export-oriented, and also diagnostic and cerimoc companies that are, this company should do really well . So these are the five themes I added to the core part of the portfolio . And always, whatever the satellite part of the portfolio is, that is, for the next two to three years, we have some triggers, that is, earnings-related triggers, but also some tail win companies, which are related to their strategies and are added from time to time, so I will keep sharing them with you from time to time

22:24 . So this is what I have done related to portfolio corrections. You too can do the same. Making these adjustments related to your portfolio in this sideways market or bear market is very important. Many people, whether they know it or not, buy whatever is the star in the last bull market and get stuck in it. I have tried to share this information with you in a language you can understand through this video . Many of your friends and family are also investing in direct stocks, so be sure to share this video with them . So that they can not only protect their capital but also make a little more money in such market conditions. And if you liked this video and haven't liked it yet, then like the video. And if this is your first time visiting the channel, subscribe to our Money Parts channel and activate all notifications by clicking the bell icon next to it to watch content like this and improve your financial knowledge . I,

23:09 Sai Krishna Patri, come to you with another good video . Till then, boy, boy, take care.