Full transcript of “NASDAQ 100 / Elliott Wave Daily Update 3/17/2026 by Michael Filighera”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.
0:02 Good afternoon. This is the Elliot Wave daily update for the NASDAQ 100 being recorded on Tuesday, March the 17th at 3:50 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time. Um, kind of had to take it apart and put it back together a little bit here uh to make some sense. the market just not that it broke any major levels. Uh but it just kind of turned and ended up with a strong opening that kind of just floundered and then made a zip to a high and then just kind of you know kind of came off and now is basically sitting a little bit lower. Now that doesn't do anything for the formation of whatever
0:49 this is going to be. So with this particular account that I'm showing on the futures market, it is that uh I can squeeze it in a little bit more that there's wave three. This is minuette wave A of minute wave 4. This is minuette wave B of minute wave four. So, we're in a sea wave down and it is promising to be as difficult as it possibly can be because this would be wave one, this would be wave two, and this should be a wave three. Now, is that all of three? I just don't think so.
1:35 uh because again wave three on it even in a diagonal cannot be the shortest wave. So again, we already know one's pretty big, and I think it C is uh three is shorter, puts a lot of pressure on five, but the way that this is counting right now, this is A of three, B of three, which could actually go up a little bit more. Right now it's it's flirting with I believe 618 here where where this particular is 618 of this and where then this this whole thing cuz this has to be a b and that should be one two
2:23 and so we should not be beginning to accelerate more to the upside because then it changes is instead of being one two it could change to one two now of interest is this wave here did I believe let me just say 24,16475 and this is 24,717 isn't it was I correct the low 24330 and this is 24,164 so you see this low right It actually could have put the whole thing to rest right there and it's very
3:08 ugly and it goes but I probably could work it that way if if this is a big if this that would suggest that we got to go now. So in other words, it's like whatever PPI is going to be, whatever is going to develop or not develop over within the Middle East, this this index needs to go and everything within it, everything gets kind of put on put on hold. We're buying and what could do that? What could provide that is the fact that we have a volatility expiration tomorrow. The VIX has
3:53 expiration tomorrow on the opening. And so I you've heard me remark a couple of times that it looks like they're doing the risk on trade that they're moving back into risk on trades, which is selling the VIX and buying the underlying volatility. So, in other words, you're selling the VIX, then going within the NASDAQ and buying Apple and, you know, all of the components, but you're buying the volatility, which means you're buying calls basically in the options. So, with that in mind, it presents a little bit more insight as to why are they stepping up and buying
4:39 it? Why are they moving a lot of capital? Why are they doing it? But it has to do with the expiration and the possibility that happens tomorrow on the opening. So by then we're we get VIX is done this particular month March done we roll right out and they may need to reestablish positions in the VIX because what they have or or if they have an open position it settles tomorrow. So that either Yeah. So we could get another what appears to be risk on where they sell volatility and of course so but but doing that trade produces the hedge of it is a buy. It
5:27 produces a buy lower vault. You got to go buy the market. Um, so now what goes against that is the fact that the market possibly has topped already and we're beginning a larger correction. And that being the case, you would not be looking for risk on trades. You'd be looking for risk off that the whole scenario changes. And that's also a possibility here in terms of we're doing a little bit larger of a C-wave. And that would suggest that we can come down as low as 22. We're at trading 25,000 right now in the future basis June. So we would Yeah, that's that's like not
6:12 quite but 3,800 points. So coming down from 25,000 to 225, it's like 2500 points. That's a lot. And it could happen and that could come in. Yeah. So, and that would just give us a crush instead of a boost. So, I think that we've got the potential for the market because there's there's nothing protection doesn't seem. So, again, remember I went back and I was talking about that um V crush
6:57 And I thought that could really go into the end of March. And also what I'm also looking for is this market has been totally sideways. And it's like the challenge folks, the challenge is let me just kind of get this open and move it around a little bit and move it down and then move it up and then move it up and then open it up. There's the high. That's October. And now look at it. Since we did this at the beginning of February, it has even been tighter. All threes, threes, threes, threes,
7:42 threes, non-committal. The market is not committed to anything right now. And so the focus becomes much closer and tighter inside. So as we kind of get closer to these expirations, I'm looking for the reset to move things down. And that might not happen till the end of the quarter and it could come via um JP Morgan. they move their big collar which happens to be in the S&P 500x but still if you're lowering that trading range for your hedges then I would think that we're all should be expecting the market's going to head lower for whatever reasons and so what
8:30 what the market continues to get bolstered on is what's coming what may be happening in the second quarter right again two things tomorrow V expiration tomorrow. FOMC not expecting anything coming out of that meeting, but it's the press conference. It's time to hear from the Fed chair as to what are all these numbers, what is going on. Is inflation creeping back in? Are we headed back down that very crooked path that may force a hold on any further rate cuts? Probably until at least May after um Powell leaves. Not that I don't know if there'd be a big change, but again this
9:18 is like sideways nothing. So the challenge becomes if this is like A of three, B of three, 1 2 3 4 5 and then I got at least a decent third, then it's coming down and then I got a four and a five and then I'm looking at this and it could be that way four and then we kind of explode to the upside to do it now could happen as well. And this would be one two. And again, we're working our way higher. I get, you know, beginning of globeex, but when when a majority of trades traders are sitting in there around, this should not. So, we have to wait for
10:03 the stocks to start to trade again. So, and if they start buying these up, and they may not, but you know, we might have to wait this market, if it is indeed that's going to be wave four, and we're in one of five and two of five, and we're beginning a third. You can see it needs to go and it needs to conquer that. It needs I would say quickly a thousand points need to be added to this to get it above 26 quickly. Now the enzyme it's got to be more than than gamma to the upside. It has to be more than gamma. Uh it has to be more than selling volatility. Now they could but they've
10:51 already got V back to 22 in the futures market. So again, everybody's kind of looking at each other going like, "Okay, what's up? What are we doing?" And so we got one whole big side going like, "It's all done. We're going to crash. It's over. This is going to happen." It's like, yeah, I don't disagree. I think it could be a very organized crash. Um, but I think we're going to have periods of just like pulling the plug and there's like a vacuum and we just start to drop. And that would be because we're so high because 25,000 25,000 when the all-time high is just above 26,000. Not just, but mid 26,000,
11:37 there's a whole lot more underneath than maybe what what people think the market could do going above. So, if we're going to continue to move up and we're going to get either an irregular B, which could mean we get above this, but this is this is the the gig. Wave two corrects wave 1. Wave three is not necessarily confined to being below uh wave three down below the second wave finish. Now, the rule is is that wave two can't go beyond the starting point of wave 1, wave three in a strange pattern
12:24 in its midpoint. I mean, even if we're going to say one, two going to the downside, I don't know if that second wave should go above the start of this first wave. So, I would not necessarily be looking for an irregular. And if it did it, I I'm leaving it there because that would be resistance. But if it did it, it's going to shove this more to one two. And the four is here. One, two. That's my point. So I'm leaving these here to show how far like the marking get there. This gets cut and it's going to be this whole thing gets redone so that this marks the end of minute wave four. And this is one of minute wave five, two of minute wave five. And we're coming up in a third. And it needs to break and not stop.
13:10 Now downside downside um I I'm really going to take this off so we don't get ourselves all wrapped up in confusion. So if we are going to come down in a C-wave and that holds then we're going to be doing this shoot. Let's do that again. There, there. And there. We need to stop, turn, and drop almost as not quite as strong, but pretty much as we just start to drop. Here are the levels coming off. But this is what we're looking for. We're looking for it again to break below that level, which is 24, uh 251.
13:57 Then we have 24,042. That would be support for a C-wave down, right? a C-wave of minor 4. How this then all gets counted? I can put this down as uh 1 2 3 4. And this is the ugliest five you've ever seen. I'm not sure how it would come out. But that would be that would be serving two things in terms of of the gamma flush. That would do it. That would clean it all up. That would take out what's sitting down there. which would just get sent away. Um, but it may happen all the way to the end of the the month. So, I'm not sure when
14:43 we're going to break, but if we're going to hold to this pattern, and this is a one, and excuse me, this is an A, B, and we're coming down in a C, and it's one of C, two of C, then we should be dropping in a three of C. Not really going up anymore. We start dropping in a three of C and we just start cutting through all of this. 24's got to go. So we got 246 2458 24207 23887 which would be our first support for a completion point of of um A B and a C. But but I have to say yeah the C wave could do all the way down there. You could see the size of
15:29 this thing. If this is um A B C or just coming down in the Cwave, right? So again, it needs to go. If it's going to go, it needs to go. And these are our support levels coming down. This is how difficult it is truly. And it's like folks, it's like I can't tell you the frustration because I'm sitting here with 40 years experience doing Elliot under a lot of conditions, a lot of, you know, the Gulf War, all of them. um you know just the great financial collapse of 2009 you
16:14 know the co but this pattern the length of this pattern the length of this sideways you can see it it has shifted down once now we're just here so we're going to shift it down again and make 24 the ceiling and 22 or 2 thou uh 20,000 the floor I don't But that's what I'm looking for. I need the market to tell me. Then we're going to know how we're going to get there. In the meantime, uh, I laid it all out. I'm sorry to say it took it off. So, you're going to have to kind of rewind and go back and and catch all of them. But if it's if we're moving to the upside, it needs to go. It needs to break that pretty quickly. 25,382 and then break 25,583
17:02 pretty quick. Pretty quick. So, I'm talking sizable. So, let's see what happens tomorrow with VA expiration. I don't think something positive is going to come out from the Fed, but you never know. Um, and we'll see. And that's really got to be it for today. Otherwise, I'm going to be talking just in circles about everything here. It is very, very difficult. And um, and someone who really I do enjoy trading, folks. I'm taking long walks around my little neighborhood here. I'm taking long walks. All right, that's it. Next update will be tomorrow morning and I will be updating gamma levels then.
