Saham Hari Ini 1 Sept 2025: Combo September Bikin Saham Strong Meski Demo Memanas, Banyak Saham Naik

Ellen May www.youtube.com

Brief Summary

This YouTube video by Ellen May recaps recent market events, discusses the impact of demonstrations and global economic factors on the Indonesian stock market, and provides insights into specific stocks, particularly in the banking and gold sectors. It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics, considering both domestic and international influences, and making informed investment decisions.

  • Impact of demonstrations and global economic factors on the Indonesian stock market
  • Insights into specific stocks, particularly in the banking and gold sectors
  • Importance of understanding market dynamics and making informed investment decisions

Market Recap and Impact of Demonstrations

The video starts with a recap of the past weekend's events, including demonstrations and speculation in the market. The demonstrations involved anarchic acts, looting, and burning of buildings, leading to theories about foreign exploitation, power struggles, and corruptors being the cause. Despite these events, the market wasn't significantly disrupted until a victim, Mas Afan, died, which intensified the situation. The market initially went down but then bounced back.

IHSG and Big Banks Analysis

The video analyzes the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), noting a breakdown gap down that was followed by a reflection driven by Big Banks shares. BCA shares fell to 7,600, still above the support area of 7,400, and returned to standard deviation -1. The speaker refers to a past event with Mr. Sandiaga Uno at IDX, mentioning that peak market conditions often present opportunities for institutions to enter. BCA is used as a reflection of big investor psychology, with foreigners net selling 1.6 trillion in BCA shares.

BCA Valuation and Historical Comparison

The discussion shifts to BCA's valuation compared to historical figures, emphasizing that BCA's valuation should be compared with its own history rather than other banks. The standard deviation of -2 was touched on April 8th at around 7,400. The speaker advises against going all in due to opportunities in other stocks and the importance of cash in uncertain times. Political uncertainty has multiplied since the change of leadership in Indonesia and America.

Market Sentiments and BCA's Potential

The video addresses whether BCA's score will rise straight away if it hits 73 or 74, noting that the stock market moves due to various sentiments coming together. BCA had two negative sentiments: economists discussing BLBI and the recent demonstrations. Without these, BCA would have reached the 9,000 level. The speaker points out that BCA's recent rise has been sluggish due to these sentiments, presenting both a challenge and an opportunity.

BCA's Historical Valuation and Future Trends

The discussion continues with BCA's historical valuation, noting that it hit a standard deviation of minus 2 during the pandemic in 2021 and 2020. The standard deviation of -2 in 2020 was at 4,700, while now it is at 7,300, indicating an upward trend in the long term. The speaker suggests that the standard of cheapness is different now, and the average valuation changes over time.

Factors Driving Market Bounce

The video explores why the market is bouncing despite the recent demonstrations, attributing it to the anticipation of the Federal Reserve (The Fed) lowering interest rates. A combo in September is expected, with Bank Indonesia and The Fed likely to lower interest rates. Lowering interest rates encourages borrowing, reduces the burden on companies, and motivates people to invest in more profitable assets like stocks and bonds.

Economic Data and Market Impact

The discussion covers Indonesian economic data, including GDP growth of 5.12% and an increase in the Indonesian Manufacturing PMI. The speaker expresses confusion about the data's accuracy but remains cautiously optimistic. Indonesian inflation is quite flat, with monthly inflation showing deflation, which could encourage BI to lower interest rates. Indonesia's trade balance rose 1.7% annually, with exports exceeding imports, potentially strengthening the rupiah.

Gold Price Analysis and Trump's Tariffs

The video analyzes the price of gold, noting a sharp rise due to global economic uncertainty. A federal court declared Trump's tariffs illegal, but they remain in effect until October 14, 2025. The speaker marks important dates, including the potential interest rate cut on September 17-18 and the uncertain date of October 14. The dismissal of Governor The Fat Lisa Cook is also discussed as a factor influencing the market.

Gold Stocks and Issuer Analysis

The discussion focuses on gold stocks, with Antam (ANTM) being a primary example. Antam's income from gold is 81%, and it experienced a breakout with high transaction volume. The speaker also mentions other gold issuers like Pesat, Arci, BRMS, Indie, Dewa, and Cuan. The cost of gold production is around $1533 per ounce, and if gold breaks out from $3500, it would be a significant breakout.

Stock Recommendations and Mtrade Promotion

The speaker refrains from giving specific stock recommendations on the live stream, emphasizing the importance of understanding the science behind trading. A promotion for Mtrade is mentioned, with a discount available for those who join the Mtrade Start event on September 6th. The speaker encourages viewers to DM Mtrade Start to get the registration link.

Individual Stock Analysis and Market Insights

The video includes a Q&A segment where the speaker analyzes various stocks, including ADMR, ADRO, Harum, MDKA, PGEO, BBRI, and others. The analysis includes insights on support levels, retracement, and potential entry points. The speaker also discusses waste-to-energy stocks like Toba, OASA, and MHKI, providing cautionary notes and best price points.

Service and Closing Remarks

The speaker explains the purpose of the daily live streams as a field of service to help people and positively impact Indonesia. Viewers are encouraged to join the morning briefing for more detailed discussions on trading plans and watch lists. The speaker concludes by praying for Indonesia's safety and for wisdom and health for its leaders.

US Stocks Discussion

The video briefly touches on US stocks, including Garmin, and provides a watch list for breakout plays. The speaker mentions potential retracement levels for US stocks and discusses the impact of Trump's policies on the market. The video concludes with a reminder to join the morning briefing for more detailed discussions and a plan to discuss US stocks more thoroughly in the future.

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Transcript

Full transcript of “Saham Hari Ini 1 Sept 2025: Combo September Bikin Saham Strong Meski Demo Memanas, Banyak Saham Naik”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.

0:03 Okay, so I want to recap a little bit what happened last weekend, it was actually really extraordinary. There are also a lot of theories about the speculation that occurs in the market, ee, there are also a lot of theories about the speculation that occurs outside. Someone said, "Wow, this is ridden by a lot of unknown people, huh?" So unknown people carried out anarchic acts, looting several houses of DPR members and also Mrs. Sri Mulyani. Then there was also burning in several places including the Grahadi building, which is actually a very historic building and also a museum. Well, there are some people who

0:49 say, "Wow, this is being exploited by foreigners." Hey, are the provocateurs from abroad? There are also those who say, "Wow, this is a power struggle." There are also those who say what, oh this is an angry corruptor. So we don't know, we don't actually know what's going on behind all this. But we know that Indonesia is actually not doing well. And in the midst of conditions like this, so if it's just a demonstration, just a regular demonstration, it actually doesn't disrupt the condition of the IHSG or the market, right? So pay attention to the demo on the 25th yesterday and ee on what date? 20 27 if I'm not mistaken. 2 27 is

1:38 Wednesday, right? Correct. the market is not affected at all. Only then there was a victim at that time, there was Afan, Mas Afan died and it started to get crowded. Well, it kept getting busier last weekend, eh today the market did go down but after that it bounced back up again. I actually discussed it earlier in my fit post on Igoi. But how come the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut is that big? Well, let's take a look at how the ee market is doing today. And when I said the stock was bouncing, there were also some who said it was still in the red. It's

2:25 still red, it doesn't bounce. Maybe he's looking at his portfolio? Okay, let's get straight to it. And there is some news from outside too. There is news from outside America where ee Trump's tariffs are considered illegal . So, how is the sustainability? Will it be cancelled or not? So we'll discuss that later. Then there's the gold price and the release of Indonesian economic data . We will discuss all of that, friends on YT. Just go straight to my IGO elma_official to see the chart. Okay, let's just start with the IHSG first. Yes, this is what the IHSG looks like. So, if you pay attention, friends, please

3:12 pay attention, today is indeed a breakdown, eh, a breakdown gap down. This morning we just watched what Made said, and we saw that it seemed like there might be a reflection. And it turns out there really is a reflection. So the index driver is Big Banks shares, right? So, the JCI rose not because it was supported by illiquid stocks, because the big bangs also rose. I'll just keep it short, I'll just go straight to Big Banks on e on YT, I'll go straight to Igo so I can see the chart, I'm elenm_official. I started from BCA first. So, BCA shares fell to their lowest level at 7,600,

3:57 and this is still above its support area, which is around 7,400. So the support is at 7,400, it still hasn't broken down the support. Later I will show my friends how to value the BBCA band. But this is really interesting. Why? Because BBCA's valuation band returns to the standard deviation of eh-1, right? So back to standard deviation -1. And what's interesting is that after the gap down opened, it went down, yes, it opened down, it went down around 5% from yesterday's closing, ee, it went up straight away. the

4:43 initial increase was small in volume but then increased with high transaction volume . Well, this is in line with what I said at the event with Mr. Sandiaga Uno at IDX. So, there was one question regarding the market at that time. So, I've discussed that when market conditions are at their peak, it often presents an opportunity for institutions to enter. I'll give you an example, those who have followed me for a long time might know. And why do I use BCA? I don't use the IHSG because the IHSG often

5:30 doesn't reflect overall market conditions . Well, BCA reflects the psychology of big investors, both foreign and local. How is investor psychology regarding our overall market today? He saw that from this BCA stock. He is one of the banks and even the largest bank with the best fundamentals. Hey, the market cap is also okay, eh, the GCG is okay, and eh, foreign investors, local investors definitely have to have this stock in their portfolio. We'll see, this goes back to the theme of when fear peaks. Actually that's the best timing

6:15 on eh YT to egoyaku Element_oficial so you can see the charts. Well, notice here this is the bottom of the market on April 8th. I discussed this earlier in the morning briefing on April 8th. This is the bottom market here. Then yeah it went up about 30% until May. After that it went down again. And today we are given the same price which is more or less the same as April 8th. And note that on April 8th the transaction volume was high. Today also the transaction volume is high. So here it actually looks like investors are starting to

7:02 collect this. Although there is actually some interesting data too. Foreigners net sold 1.6 trillion at BCA. In the morning there are indeed some for sale. Well, but then there are also those who collect, there are those who sell, there are those who collect. Look at my ego, the chart, elman_oficial, that's it. So some are selling, some are collecting, but still today there is a net sell of 1.6 trillion. Well, what if it goes down again tomorrow? I strongly believe that in the coming days, there will be a surge or a drop in the number 74 or 73, which will be bought up by foreign investors and local institutional investors. Okay. Well, what

7:49 's interesting about BCA is that I don't need to discuss the fundamentals of banking in detail anymore because I 've discussed it many times, and in all aspects, BCA is the winner. So, various ratios are financial ratios, he is the winner, including from management as well, from the leadership culture like that. Now let's look at this valuation compared to historical figures. Well, so ee, don't compare it with numbers, okay? For example, from the jebot era to ancient times until now, BNI is definitely cheaper than BCA. BRI, BMRI is definitely cheaper than BCA. BNG's valuation has always been, if you say oh, cheap, its P is small, yes, it's been

8:37 small since the beginning until now. So that we are not biased, we have to compare it with the history of the stock itself. Except in the commodity sector, I still compare it with other issuers in that sector, which are on Toktok, eh, wrong, the ones on Toktok can't be live, the ones on YT are my ego. Elenm_official I want to show you the value valuation of the BJA band. Okay, let's see . There is one thing that is very interesting and very beautiful. This is really beautiful. Mvest, this is MVEST data, right? So, my friends, you can join in investing if you want to learn about investing. Hey, last week there was an educational webinar. This is it, below standard deviation -1

9:25 and the potential is almost reaching minus 2 deviation. This is the step. Wow, but it's not the best price. If it gets minus 2, that's the best price. What are the minus numbers? Let's see, shall we? Let's go back to the stock price which was on YT directly to my Igo. I'm waiting, I'm not waiting. Waiting for you guys for a long time. Just go straight to my IGO, okay? The standard deviation of -2 was touched on April 8th, precisely at 7,400, around 74 or 7325.

10:10 Well, this standard deviation of -2 means 73 to 74, this is a beautiful pattern. This is STD-2 PBV eh BCA standard deviation 2 in this price area. This is the best price if you want to invest long term. How wise is that? Be wise, don't go all in there. Why? If I don't want to go all in there, why? Because I see opportunities in other stocks too. Diversification is important, cash is important. Why? Because in a state of uncertainty, CAS is the king on YT to my ego, later I will show you one more time for those who haven't had the chance to see it, okay? So, in a

10:59 state of uncertainty, where would you put your money? If you want to put money in bonds, private bonds will not be able to be paid. If it's a government bond, the government can still pay it. Hey, what if there's a traffic jam ? If not, what if I fail to pay ? usually will make another debt letter . Then you put it in stocks. Stocks look good. If The Fet lowers the interest rate, it could go down. So the main sentiment is actually that, and if Trump goes crazy again, it could go down again. So always be prepared for surprises. And this time I can say that

11:45 in Indonesia since the change of leadership and in America since the change of leadership, the factor of political uncertainty has multiplied. So now the factors are not just domestic. The uncertainty factor also comes from outside. So, should you be grateful if you want to invest long term with all your might? I apologize for saying that there is an opportunity like this. I actually don't feel comfortable in the midst of a demonstration that, eh, resulted in seven fatalities. So I apologize, it doesn't mean I don't empathize, but here the context is that I'm discussing stocks, namely investing. I'm trying to help my fellow investors, you know. So in conditions like this,

12:32 ee, in conditions like this, the opportunity arose for me, yeah. The opportunity arose in the most frightening of circumstances. The opportunity arose. Now the second question is, if you get hit 73 or 74, will your score go up straight away? Do you think it will be possible to go up? like last April. Do you know why it went up last April? Friends, one important thing to note is that the stock market does not move just because of one sentiment, but because of various sentiments that come together. Well, yesterday, April 8th, the

13:18 reciprocal tariff on ee was postponed until the third month until July. Well, that 's the main sentiment, right? So that's the main sentiment that drives it up. Now the question is, if tomorrow we are given another 73 to 74, or maybe we don't give it, perhaps today will be the bottom of the market, will it be able to rise to the 9,700-00 level like last month? Last May, it was about a month and a half. So from April 8th to the end of May, it was about 1.5 months, eh, BCA rose 33%. Come on, let's see what's on YT at egoy, I'm

14:04 enm_official. I noticed here that if it goes up 33%, we take it from the bottom, both from the bottom of 30%, it falls at 10,000. Well, if it falls to 97, that's around 28%. If you ask me, "Is it possible to go up this much in a month?" Actually, if I said that if there hadn't been this incident yesterday, this might be BCA as of today. BCA had two negative sentiments yesterday. The first is because there are economists who talk all sorts of things about BLBI or whatever. That's one. Then the second

14:50 negative sentiment is because since yesterday there was a demonstration, if for example there were no these two sentiments, then BCA would not have dropped here. If there were no 2 cm, BCA would actually have reached the 9,000 R000 level now. How come? We'll just see. This is reflected in several other stocks. For example, BRI. BRI also rose a few days ago before the demonstration. It started to go down after the demonstration. Well, so here it also goes up. Other Big Bang stocks also rose like that. But if you pay attention, BCA's recent rise has been a bit sluggish. Why? Well, he just came down after the demonstration. Go down little by little. Why?

15:37 Yes, because there was that sentiment. Well, this can be viewed from two POVs. POV is annoying, it already has one. But the POV of someone who doesn't have this is actually an opportunity. And if you want to see the band valuation chart on YT, go straight to my IGO, LME_official. Look here, okay? When did BCA get a standard deviation of minus 2 when its valuation was really cheap? Long long time ago. 4 years ago. Note here that BC was hit by minus 2 standard deviations in 2021 and 2020 during the pandemic.

16:27 Although in terms of numbers yes. So pay attention to the numbers. Let's see if the figures are based on price and not valuation. In terms of price, is it the same as in 2021? Let 's see. We pull to the left. We pull to the left. Ee the price of 7,300 which was 73 which was touched on April 8th at a standard deviation of minus 2. Ah, this was hit, oh, the same price in ee July 2022 ee May in 2021, this was hit here. Okay, then I want to pull it to the left again. Well, this happened yesterday, but it happened again in

17:14 2021. Yeah. What's interesting is that the standard deviation figure of -2 in 2020 was at 4,700. This is one important thing that you must pay attention to. The standard deviation-2 for 2020 was 4,600 to 4,700. But now BCA's standard deviation of -2 is at 7,300. Can you conclude what the difference means? Previously, the standard deviation of -2 was at 46. Now the standard deviation of -2 is at 73. This means that in the long term, in several years, BCA has been on an upward trend, the trend has continued to rise.

18:00 So if you can't get it now, wait a few more years, wait for it to reach standard deviation-2. Maybe BCA's standard deviation of -2 in the future will not be at 7374 anymore, but BCA's standard deviation of -2 could be at Rp. 10,000 or at some other number. So the standard of cheapness is different. Catch it. So, on average, the price keeps increasing, so the average valuation also changes, the PE ratio, price to earnings ratio, PBV, and price to book value also change . Automatically, if calculated from the price, the price continues to rise

18:46 , the share continues to rise, so automatically the number becomes bigger except for the EE below, so the earnings and BV also follow. Well, here it can be seen from this formula that the price is running faster than its current earnings and BV . Catch it, all my friends. OK, Dyt, just go straight to Igoi Element_ficial. Uh, my disclosure disclaimer for BCA. This stock will not move too fast. I'll give you one last fact before I move to another stock . Eh, one fact about Big Banks shares especially BCA. If there was a crash in the past, for example, the crash in 2008,

19:32 when the crash occurred and in 2013, it would recover and continue to rise, and after that, second-liner stocks would follow suit and also rise. Well, friends on YT, just go straight to Igo, I'm lenme_official, yes lenme_official. Why? Because there is a chart there. Well, what is different from the current situation is that one interesting thing is that BCA shares and other Big Bank shares at that time had risen from a 30% reciprocal crash. After that, the rally did not continue to rise . Usually in the olden days , the ancient times when I was

20:19 still studying, like 2007, 2008, ee 2008, then 2009, right? It keeps going up and it keeps going over and over like that, it keeps going up and up. If there's a crash, it goes up first and then the second liner follows. what happened recently, eh, since the end of May, it started to go down, the second liner was moving, but the banking didn't move up. What does it mean? This means that big investors, institutional investors, or anyone with money, are playing around with trading second- line stocks. So why don't they enter big in

21:07 these big bang stocks where I made BCA a new meter, not the IHSG anymore. This shows foreign investors' confidence in Indonesia. Why I use BCA instead of other banks is because fundamentally it is the best. So, from the company's perspective, this should be very trustworthy. If ASI refuses to participate, meaning that large investors, both local and ASI institutions, don't want to invest in this stock, then there are other factors. What other factors? That political uncertainty. And this, ee okay, I'm moving on, not just discussing BCA, and earlier I said BCA means it represents other big bang stocks. So if you ask BRI, BMRI, BBNI, the conditions are more or less the

21:54 same. But BCA does have a special valuation discount. Eh, BMRI's valuation discount isn't this big compared to historical figures, and BNI's isn't this big either. BRI's valuation has actually increased slightly now. The valuation discount is not that big. Okay, those on YT can go straight to Igoi. Igo aku lenm_official. Now I want to move. Why is the market bouncing today? Even though yesterday's demo was quite scary, it was still scary for me, who went through '98. Ouch. Uh, that's really God praying so much. I couldn't sleep. I can't sleep like ee so what should I do, keep scrolling through the news like that, right? So, we

22:39 constantly monitored and even monitored the conditions of the demonstration in our own city through live ToktK, but after the live Toktok, something funny happened. When the demonstration had calmed down a bit, we needed something before we dared to pass by. It's actually good that we can see but sometimes it's used for this person yeah. so ee things that are not good. So maybe the tok-tok is turned off like that. I don't know about that. Anyway, yesterday's conditions were actually extraordinary. For kids who don't understand, high school kids who don't understand, we want to tell them what an extraordinary condition it is. The market should have fallen today. The market should have crashed today. Some people say, "Ah, no, the IHSG might not fall." Why? Because you can just carry it with

23:24 DCI, DSSA like that. Stocks that are less liquid but have a large market cap . In my opinion, if big banking shares fall and other shares fall because people are afraid of this condition, then DCI, DSSA will most likely also fall like that . But in reality, we saw this morning, I was already on guard with all the Mtrat team. We'll wait, we'll wait, eh, the bounce is really great, the bounce is really high, you know . So for a while the bounce was high so that only a few were hit by the stop loss. Let's see what the cause is. The one who is being bullied is elenman_oficial. I'll show you a few things later, but the main reason is that the fat wants to lower interest rates.

24:11 And there's a combo in September mid- 2026. From September 16th to 18th, Bank Indonesia will most likely lower interest rates again. September 18th the Fed will most likely lower interest rates. That was discussed in the Jackson Hall meeting some time ago, yes. So it's been discussed there. Then there is another interesting thing, not only in September but the fact that interest rates will be lowered

24:57 after September. So there is the potential for interest rates to be cut possibly twice. And even BI also predicted that. For those who don't understand, what is the importance of lowering interest rates ? If interest rates are lowered, the bank's income will actually decrease. Not really, Say. If interest rates are lowered, people and businesses will certainly be more willing to take out loans. So what? The economy moves both for consumption needs and business development. Two, if the interest rate is lowered by society, I'm sorry, the burden on companies will decrease even more. What is the burden? Flower. Flowers, yes. So the loan interest will be reduced. And did you know that in

25:43 Indonesia there are several companies whose debts are in USD? Then the third one, the third one, if the flower temperature is lowered, what happens? People are lazy to put money in the bank, the interest is only that much. Usually they will choose more profitable assets in the stock market. Whether it's in bonds, shares, or the capital market. So these three points are the main drivers that go directly to IGO on YT, I am elm_oficial. So what's the impact? interest rates fell by only 25 basis points. 25 basis points, if the money is large, the impact is big.

26:31 Currently, banks in Indonesia are only gradually lowering interest rates, even though BI or Bank Indonesia has already lowered interest rates four or five times, if I'm not mistaken. Wait a minute, please. Let me check, okay? BI has lowered interest rates four times this year from 6% to 5%. BI will even lower interest rates again at its next meeting on September 17th, possibly to 4.75% on September 18th. So the date is really close, September 17th to 18th. So, that's why this morning the moment of greeting fell into an opportunity. Even though this morning I was still thinking, I was weighing up which one is stronger? At that

27:17 time, at the briefing, I was still choosing to take more careful steps. So, which is stronger, The Fat's interest rate sentiment or Indonesian political sentiment ? It turns out that the interest rate sentiment is still strong to Fat. And there is another sentiment that is actually very strong in the market, namely the trump rate. Why do these Trump tariffs impact not only one country, but many other countries? Okay, now we'll talk about stocks specifically on YT, just go straight to IGEM_Official. Now I'm talking about the Indonesian economy. He said that GGB Groove Indonesia data grew by 5.12%.

28:04 Questioned by many parties year on year. I don't know whether this data is true or not, but many people are questioning it. Meanwhile, growth throughout the first half of 2025 reached 4.99%. And as of today, Indonesia's manufacturing data , the Indonesian PMI, has increased, the image is like this, which was posted on YT directly to IGO, my name is elenm_oficial, and this was announced by Mr. Erlangga at IDX this morning. Pay attention here. This is the Indonesian Manufacturing PMI data showing the activity of factories in Indonesia. The numbers actually make many people wonder.

28:50 They say there are a lot of layoffs and many factories are closing, so how can the manufacturing PMI increase? The one on YT to igoi I elenman_oficial there is a PMI chart here. Well, if it's below 50 it's contraction, above 50 it's expansion. So this is starting to enter the expansion period again. GDP GDP growth is high. I'm also confused about where this number comes from. But we just say amen. Let's just say yes, while Miss K says yes, that means you are not objective in making your decision. The time to believe data that is not necessarily true is not necessarily true. This is true, isn't it? we just say amen while remaining careful and not going

29:36 all in. Why? Remember this is a huge uncertainty factor for the next 4 years. Okay, so always be ready for every surprise. Okay, then I want to discuss inflation in Indonesia. Well, the point is that Indonesian inflation is actually quite flat. Well, the annual inflation is declining. Here, pay attention to the picture here. Pay attention here on toktok. Eh, in Toktok there aren't any Toktok. The one who digo on YT to IGO me. Pay attention here. This annual inflation is sloping. Well, this annual core inflation is also decreasing, slightly, but the decrease is still, uh, still like this. Previously, annual inflation fell, but now

30:23 core inflation has fallen quite significantly, the lowest in the last 11 months. Well, the interesting thing about monthly inflation is that monthly inflation is deflation. Deflation, yes. So eh from 0.3 inflation to -0.08. And this will be really bad. Yes, actually I am slow. But the funny thing is, the impact on the stock market, I'm sorry once again, the impact is actually positive. Why? This will encourage BI to lower interest rates. Indeed, the stock market is sometimes different from reality. When the pandemic hit the economy yesterday, stocks rose. Crypto is the same. Crypto is similar to

31:08 cyclical stocks, but it rises faster. Okay. The one on keoyaku_oficial . So, inflation is under control, but there is a slight deflation, which makes BI more confident in lowering interest rates on September 17th. There's something else interesting about Indonesian data: Indonesia's trade balance rose 1.7% annually. Yes, here I want to show you Indonesia's trade balance. Pay attention here. Well, they say exports are bigger than imports. If the trade balance is positive, that's right. Well, exports rose by 9.86%, imports fell by 5.86% . So the impact of this could encourage the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate. Let's

31:54 see how the rupiah is doing. Yes, surprisingly, in the midst of the demonstration this morning, our rupiah actually strengthened a little. So this is read backwards, right? If it goes up, it's the USD that goes up. ee the rupiah is weakening. Well, if it goes down and it's red, that means the USD is weakening, the rupiah is strengthening. So, if we look at the red ee this morning, it means the USD is weakening, the rupiah is strengthening, you know. So this morning the rupiah actually strengthened. Why one of them? Because the trade balance in Indonesia has good results. Something like that. So, don't ask me whether the data is correct or not. I

32:40 also do not know. I also hope for the best for Indonesia. Because many people ask me, "Is this data correct? Why is the data all good?" Yes, Ma'am, I don't understand either. Eh, I hope it's really good. Okay. Then there is the price of gold. Did you realize that this morning the stocks that broke out were actually gold stocks? In the morning briefing, I was asked whether gold stocks would actually rise or not. I wasn't too aggressive in saying positive things this morning. Why? Because honestly, we are more focused on protecting our members or traders. But pay attention here friends who are on eh YT can go to

33:27 Igo I'm elenm_oficial. Let's go see the price of gold . It turns out that the gold spot price rose sharply not only due to factors in Indonesia. Gold spot broke out because the global economic uncertainty factor increased. Yes, so the first driving factor was that the federal court declared that Trump's tariffs were illegal. So, gold could rise to 3,500 USD, right? Yes, so ee Trump's tariffs are still allowed to remain in effect

34:13 until October 14, 2025. So in America, ee the President's decision can be considered illegal, you know. Ee but Trump can appeal to the Supreme Court in America. Interesting, huh. Well, mark the date. Important dates 17 18 September ee interest rate cut. After September 18, be careful, shares usually go down. Well, October 14th is another uncertain date. So, if, for example, the interest rate—oh sorry, Trump's tariff—is deemed illegal on October 14th, it can still be valid until that date. After that what? That's a big question mark. Will it return to the old, cheaper rates or will it actually be the same rate? It should go back to the old,

34:59 cheaper rates. So if that's the case, if Trump doesn't appeal, then October 14th should be a good day for the market too. But the rise before that usually happens if it's a good day, on a good day, people usually sell on the news. Okay. Then there was the case of the dismissal of Governor The Fat Lisa Cook, which had not actually been decided. The forecast is tomorrow, Tuesday, and investors don't like that. Why? because it was thought that the president was interfering, you know. In fact, it's actually independent like that, right? So it has nothing to do with the president in America . Then, the next sentiment, last week's US PCE inflation data, which was in line with the consensus,

35:44 supported The Fact's prediction of a 25 basis point interest rate cut this month, with a probability of 87.6%, almost 90%. That's a positive sentiment for EE shares. But usually, if there is an interest rate cut, the price of gold usually goes up too. Something like that. Well, then the next effect, eh sorry, the next reason why the spot gold price has gone up is that I'm confused, Elencore Official. After this, I want to read the chart, eh, gold and gold stocks . So, the next reason is that the chief executive of the Federal Research Bank, in San Francisco, Mary Delhi, is also pushing for a decrease in interest rates, where, as I said

36:31 earlier, if interest rates fall, gold can rise, and investors are also waiting for the US labor market data this week. On the 3rd there was a JS job opening. On the 4th there was an initial jobless claim and ADP employment change. The fifth, the 5th, is the first Friday, there is non- payroll and unemployment rate, right? So the impact is that the price of gold has risen quite significantly in the last few days. Okay. Then currently the cost of gold production is around 1530 33 per ounce which is in eh YT keigoy aku Elemen Visual. I'll read about this, how about it? I'll read about the

37:18 stocks later, what will happen? What is clear is that gold will breakout if it can break out from 35 later. This is a very beautiful breakout. However, if you are looking for Indonesian gold, you should also compare it with USD versus IDR. If the USD versus IDR falls, it can usually normalize a bit. But I see that in e-Rupiah, the trend is also tending to increase for gold prices. Well, so this is a beautiful pattern but disclaimer once again I am not telling you to buy gold or anything. Eh, currently the cost of gold production is 1533 per 3y ounce. This means that if the gold price is 3477 per 3y ounce or 3,500, I bulleted it around 3,500, then the greater the profit, the

38:05 higher the profitability of the gold issuer. So there are several gold issuers that we will discuss here. So it's not just Antam, but there are also Pesat, Arci, BRMS, eh Indie, Dewa, and eh Cuan. I might not be able to discuss everything on tonight's live stream, but there are some that can represent the others, like the one I discussed earlier, BCA, which can represent other Big Bs stocks . which is directly to egoy, I enm_official and don't forget to also follow egoy's trade_id and for Indonesian shares to US Doc Super Trader eh ID and for crypto to cryptofoliue. Okay, let 's just look at the first one, of course we'll look at Antam ANTM.

38:55 Antam's income from gold is 81%, yes. So he has nickel too. Trade has been stealing since a few days ago on August 27th, but it just broke out today. So, just breakout today. So, even though we didn't aggressively discuss gold in the morning briefing this morning, we actually already have some gold samples. And for Antam today, the breakout was really impressive with high transaction volume. The question is whether it is still allowed to enter or not? Actually, I don't want to talk about recommendations on live. Because the problem is you don't understand the science. Because later if you buy when there's a downturn or something, you won't know what the exit plan is. Ee

39:41 studied at Mtrade. If you want to get a discount, you just have to join MTade Start on September 6th at 10:00 and we will give you a discount. At the end of this event, we will give you an MTR discount. Why? Because everyone is educated first. So you can join the event first and at the end you will get the promo code. The way to join the September 6 Mtrade Start eh episode 1 Basic Trading Mastery event. DM me Mtrad Start. I will give you the link later. The event is free but the quota is limited. Okay, back again. So friends, you have to learn first. Okay. Hey, if you ask, does this still have good potential ? I think this is actually beautiful. But once again, a disclaimer for those of you who haven't studied at MTade

40:29 Academy and don't know how to limit risk, I don't recommend you buy any shares. So you have to learn first, yeah. So notice here this is a breakout from the sideways here and it has the potential to go up to the level of 3590 or 3600 in the short term less than 1 month or so. But once again, the best price is if possible, now the base price has increased a few days ago, the best price was 28 because today there has been a breakout, so the best price is 3,030. So here the base price is around 3,030. Well, then slowly the MT trailing stop also rose at that time down here. E slowly he also went up like that. But

41:14 as of today we haven't taken it down yet. The one who gets the lowest capital is the one who wins. This means you can stop loss at any level and take profit at any level with more freedom. So, pay attention to the best price, which is around 3,000, if you can get it. If you can't get it, well, if you want to catch up, just leave your sandals . Be careful because trade always gives real time, okay? So real time stock pick. Well, then this e pattern is really beautiful. He's really big, huh? Pan is really big. He has potential if he follows this flag. But I disclaim once again that M trade never has a target. That target is useless for us. Why? Eh, targets are just targets. So, all analysts make

42:00 targets that can be revised. If it is not achieved, lower it, if it is achieved, raise it. So this is just a projection of the pattern panel. His projection is at level 5,200. If the gold price is still good, but we don't want to target it. So, we use trailing stop. If for example, if something happens, turn around before 36 turns around and breaks down, we will go straight to Igo on YT, I'm elemen_ovoicial. Now, we want to move on to gold issuers whose revenues are 100% contributed by gold. What is it? Arch and pesap disclaimer. Once again, those on YT can go straight to my IG

42:47 elemme_oficial. Okay, Arch had a breakout this morning but then he came back again. We actually had the chance to watch Arch too, but we prefer him from tracing to level 640. If possible, around level 650 or 640 . So, for example, if you're not in that area, then e with andc first, like that. So, maybe it's a little above that, maybe around the 700 level, maybe here, but the point is, don't go below 645 . Now, a disclaimer, friends, this is not a buy or sell recommendation. Hey, learn first at Mtrade, there's a free Mtrade Start webinar next Saturday

43:34 . Hey, just DM Mtrade Start. And I want to talk about PESP. Pesup. Okay, yeah. Trade has PESP and currently floating profit of 34% . So, PESAP's floating profit is 34%. Let's take a look at PSAB. Okay, 34 to 39% of those in the short term have already sold. So, you can still buy it, but if you want to buy it, bargain down to 525 or 515, as long as it does n't fall with a high transaction volume . Okay, I want to check some Q&A.

44:23 ADMR Harum and ADRO Damar Sugiri. Then after this, I want to talk about US Talks, okay? Okay, about Trump too. Eh, ADMR is currently in the weight andc position. Again weight andc position first. Eh, not yet, come in first. If there is a reflection tomorrow, we will watch. Then ADRO. ADRO yesterday since he left the MSCI standard, what caste has he been relegated to ? To small cap I think. As of

45:10 today, it's still not interesting, but ADI is interesting. So AADI is holding steady at 6675. So it's easy to collect ADI for dividend investing in this area. Those on YT can go straight to IGO, I'm enm_oficial. So, what's more, this question gets asked a lot. Harum MDKA Big Bangs I represented BCA at the beginning I was a bit bored of discussing Big Bangs all the time so that's more or less it. Eh, Harum is actually good and its retracement last week was also okay, but it dropped a little daily so it's still sideways. Wi andc first. MDKA. I heard that Saratoga sold MDKA yesterday, but the chart is still okay. So

45:56 friends, you can just watch MDKA first. Hey, Antam, I've already discussed PGEO. I already discussed BBRI a little at the beginning. Just watch PGEO first when the support is really strong. Okay, yeah. So I heard he will get e- investment from Danantara too. So we wait and see. This SSI is really suitable and really supported. Even though we entered the SSI a bit too early yesterday when it was sideways and now the position is still red. But today the pattern is actually beautiful. Disclaimer to all my friends. Then Toba, waste to energy was discussed some time ago and this chart shows that Toba is still convergent as of today

46:41 . This means it's still interesting if someone is interested in doing it by on weakness, disclaimer for everyone. Then MBMA from eh this is from YT, the funds are MBMA but let's just go to IGO. I can't show you the chart there. How come the MBMA is going down today, but it's going down in a normal sideways manner. Actually, a few days ago we bought based on it breaking out of its double bottom pattern, but it broke down a bit this morning, but then bounced back, so it's still okay. Meanwhile, with NC too, if you want to enter, yes. Okay. Then eh then Wii was supported today. E but the pattern is not good, from the flag pattern, how come this becomes a double top. So for now we avoid the wifi. Okay,

47:28 then eh the queen is also the same as andc and avoid the chat pattern first so it's not good. I'm the only one who's curious, just look at this, okay? Eh, SCMA Mrtrade has a lot of profit in SCMA for a while, around 59 to 61%, only 50%, yes, 50%. Then what else besides SCMA? Oh, MTEK, yeah. I want to show you. MTEK yeah.

48:16 70 77% we are still holding, we had a chance to make a profit, cepek hun, we had a chance to make a profit, 100% profit, let's see the profit, hah, the profit is double tops, wait andc, don't enter first, then oasa, that's waste to energy too, eh, the narrative is eh, liquidity is a bit lacking, best price 214, I want to show you one more thing, the other one is related to waste to energy, okay? Related to waste to energy, there is this share, MHKI. But be careful, friends, this is not a buy recommendation

49:05 . So, this is not a buy recommendation, just be careful. The best price is 140. Hey, I just want to tell you about stocks that are related to waste to energy. Okay, then pan. Duh, how come it can't be clicked, huh? Hang on, I've already discussed the cuan earlier, ee pani, we've already chow, it seems. We already chow a few days ago. He broke down on August 26th.

49:55 Pani 35 to 39%. Then the energy, eh, the energy had fallen but then it kept rising again. We're still watching after yesterday's trade, how much profit did you make? There's a lot of energy. 100 40% yes 140% energy. We're watching again to enter while support is at 525. But we don't want to rush. It seems that if the former rides long like this, the side base could be quite long. So that the wait isn't as long as with SSI . So we waited a bit too long . Because if we don't take action early,

50:41 it could break out. But if we take it early, the risk is that sometimes we have to wait a long time for the whisky. In this SNG, the entry rate can also be quite good, it seems to be in the 3 digits too. It's actually strange that the big bans have n't gone up, but we're still holding on to the SNG. Big banks didn't rise by 89 to 90%, but second-tier stocks did. Eh, in SNG the trend has started to slow down. Don't hit him yet, wait for him to come down first. So wait, it looks like SSI. Sorry I can't answer many questions on live and I've tried my best. Maybe someone is asking why it's live every day. Yesterday, there was also a new member of our team who joined the

51:28 MT team and asked why we were live every day. There's only one answer. This is my field of service. So, yeah, this is all I can do to help many people to have a better impact on Indonesia. So, for those of you who want to learn more about how to do it live, you will be given daily updates on how the market works, just like a big girl. For those who want to know how, tomorrow, Saturday at 10 am, study at MT Start, put it on your calendar and there will be a link to register that will be sent via DM to you. Just DM me M3 Start, I 'll reply with a link. Just fill in the link or in egoy there is this form, just screenshot it and go straight to this link and register directly

52:13 here. I hope what I share can be useful and don't forget to pray for Indonesia so that Indonesia is safe, so that Indonesia is protected by God. Oh, our leaders, our president, representatives of the people, the cabinet are given wisdom by God, given health, and all are looked after . Thank you all. Wi gak jadi bahasa Samu jadi lupa. Ah, never mind. Enough already. It's always like this. Huh. Okay, let's talk US talks. Let's discuss some US stocks.

53:00 I was just messing around with some US stocks, so I forgot. Thank you, Yandi. What is this? I've already said goodbye. Why are you reminded? Ah, no way. Joking. Garmin why did it become a typo Garmin. This cup and handle are really cool. So whether we want to make Mtrade global or not? E yeah watch this watch like that. I've already given you a watch list to breakout play later. Be not energy yet. There's still a chance at US To Stox, even though it's always like that. Eh, just wait for the retracement. Not yet energy around

53:46 44 yes. On 44 holidays today US market. Yes that's right. But this is not not this is not for us if we analyze. If I were to analyze it, my matim is not just for everyday use. Then there is no technology. E three first, let's watch this first while learning a little bit about 88 and 84. Ee then talking about trum, there are always fluctuations, but it seems like the impact is not too big for the market. Goodbye, okay? Thank you all. Good night. Bye. Don't forget to join the morning briefing tomorrow , because in the morning briefing, we will discuss in more detail about charges,

54:33 trading plans, and watch lists, of course. In my live broadcast, I discuss more about macros and many other things. Have you missed it yet? It is okay. Ee wait for Nvidia retracement, XPF Netf. Ah, it's a bit scattered and never finished. What should I do, Nvidia? I don't think so yet. This kind of shape is usually not good . It could be a breakdown, it seems like distribution has started and the volume is big. It's all red like this. Pray again, Miss. Fine. Let's pray together after this, okay? Hey Roblox. Hey, there was a demo on Roblox yesterday. Roblox is always up to something. Hey, later. I

55:19 don't think I really like this red one, it can be XPF XP distribution. This is cool. XP. Eh, I'll put it on the list. Thank you for asking. This is when the retracement is right at the retracement . So this is ADR. This ADR is going up and down again, do you know what this car is? I saw it at the exhibition at that time, like this, the car that was on YT is still there, Ma'am,

56:07 I saw it here at Igo, don't forget to follow egoy-nya elenm_official too to learn about Indo Stock Super Trader ID for US stocks and cryptofolio for crypto. Thank you all and maybe in the future we will discuss more about US Talks on a separate occasion . We want to make something like Mtrade but for US Talks. Good night everyone. DM me Mtrade Start to learn on Saturday. Bye. Later you will get the link, register on the form and enter it into the calendar September 1-6 at 10 AM. Bye. Ha.

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