S&P 500 5 Week CRASH Below the 50 Week Moving Average as Predicted- SPX DOUBLE TOP PATTERN CONFIRMED

Ron Walker www.youtube.com

Brief Summary

This video discusses the recent market downturn, highlighting the S&P 500's five-week losing streak and comparing the current situation to past market tops and corrections. It emphasizes the unreliability of expert opinions and the potential for the Fed to panic and cut rates despite rising inflation. The analysis includes key indicators like crude oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar's strength, suggesting a continued market correction before a potential rebound.

  • Market downturn with five consecutive weeks of losses for the S&P 500.
  • Comparison of current market behavior to past tops and corrections, particularly 2000 and 2008.
  • Expectation of a continued market correction followed by a potential rebound.

Market Overview and Recent Performance

The S&P 500 has experienced a five-week losing streak, with the Dow Jones down nearly 800 points and the S&P 500 down 108 points. The NASDAQ and Russell also saw significant declines, while the VIX, a measure of market volatility, increased. Despite earlier predictions of market consolidation and continued gains, the market has entered correction territory. The Fear Greed Index has dropped to 10, indicating extreme fear in the market. The VIX suggests an 85% chance of an update or attempted bounce in the S&P 500 in the next two trading sessions, although further declines are expected.

Contrasting Expert Opinions and Market Reality

Financial experts who previously predicted market consolidation and Dow 50,000 are now claiming the downturn is just a correction. This shift mirrors the behavior of Bitcoin experts who advised buying the dip as it continued to fall. The speaker suggests the market is playing catch-up to Bitcoin's decline, with a potential decoupling in the future, similar to 2022. The financial media's narrative of a "healthy correction" is questioned, given their previous incorrect predictions.

Crude Oil, Yields, and Fed Policy

Despite extended negotiations, crude oil prices are rising, leading to increased probability in the futures market that the Fed will raise rates by the end of 2026. The speaker doubts the Fed will raise rates, predicting a market collapse instead. The speaker believes the Fed will eventually have to choose between fighting inflation and supporting the economy, and will likely choose to support the economy by implementing jumbo rate cuts. Rising crude oil prices and long-term yields are creating problems for the economy, contradicting earlier predictions of declining crude oil, dollar, and yields.

Historical Parallels and Future Fed Actions

The speaker anticipates the Fed will panic and implement jumbo rate cuts, similar to what occurred during the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008. Despite rising inflation, the Fed may prioritize supporting the economy, as it did in 2008. The speaker argues that the Fed will have to choose between fighting inflation and supporting the economy, and will likely choose to support the economy.

Market Signals and Support

The speaker highlights that the signals have accurately predicted the recent market downturn, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow dropping significantly. The speaker encourages viewers to support the channel. The speaker plans to post another video with different indicators, focusing on the NASDAQ. A market bounce is expected at some point, but it will likely be a counter trend rally followed by more aggressive selling.

Factors Influencing Market Decline

The market is declining due to rising crude oil prices, concerns about a prolonged Iran war, and a weak Treasury auction. Rising yields and concerns about inflation are also contributing factors. The speaker reiterates the prediction that the 10-year yield will reach new highs, potentially exceeding 5%, which will likely cause market panic. The speaker believes the market will realize the Fed has lost control, leading to a collapse and subsequent jumbo rate cuts.

Dollar and Yields Analysis

The stock market is beginning to crash to catch up to Bitcoin's decline. The speaker predicted the bottoming of yields in a consolidation triangle, contrary to expert predictions of collapsing yields and a weakening dollar. The dollar has broken out of a bullish falling wedge and is finding support, indicating further gains. The speaker warned about divergences in the monthly time frame, suggesting the dollar will continue to rise and potentially make new highs.

Contrarian Predictions and Market Dynamics

Experts predicted a bullish stock market, consolidating for further gains, and declining dollar and yields. However, the market reversed, completing a topping pattern. The speaker warned about the warning signs in the bond market, the double bottom with crude oil, and the risks associated with the dollar going higher. The speaker notes that the herd has been proven wrong, and experts are now attempting to justify their incorrect predictions by claiming it's just a correction.

Crude Oil Analysis and Potential Targets

The speaker warned about crude oil, which is now trying to bounce off the 20-day moving average. Despite a divergence, crude oil may move above $119 and potentially reach $150, $180, or even $200 a barrel before the commodity cycle ends. The speaker draws parallels to 2008, where crude oil rose sharply while the stock market collapsed. Crude oil is currently closing above $100 a barrel, rattling markets further.

Crude Oil Divergences and Geopolitical Factors

A larger divergence may develop in the weekly time frame for crude oil, with the MACD potentially forming a larger divergence along with the RSI stochastic turning back up. The speaker warns against those claiming crude oil's rise is over due to negotiated settlements and the reopening of trade routes. The speaker emphasizes the warning signs in the bond market, the double bottom with crude oil, and the risks associated with the dollar going higher.

Market Distribution and Divergence

The speaker discusses the distribution pattern observed in the market, where rallies were consistently sold off. The herd and experts misinterpreted this as consolidation, while the speaker identified it as a double top at major resistance levels. The NASDAQ peaked, and if the S&P 500 didn't immediately follow, a divergence similar to 2021-2022 was expected. The S&P 500 made a slight new high, while the NASDAQ couldn't, confirming the divergence.

Institutional Manipulation and Market Structure

Institutions created a buyside liquidity sweep, causing the herd to buy the top, which then fueled the move down as institutions sold their positions. Both bulls and bears were manipulated, with retail traders who went short getting squeezed. The speaker called a top on January 28th, noting that the NASDAQ stalled at the previous high. The speaker highlights the Adam and Eve double top pattern and the institutions' strategy of allowing the market to go sideways to induce complacency before larger distribution took place.

Moving Averages and Market Breakdown

The market continues to drop below the 10-period moving average, with topping tails observed around the 10 and 20 moving averages. The 50-day moving average has dropped below the 100-period moving average, and the 10-day has dropped below the 200-day, indicating a bearish trend. The 100-period moving average, which previously acted as support, has now been broken and back tested. The speaker notes that those who previously touted Dow 50,000 and S&P 7,000 are now advising to buy the dip.

Trend Line Analysis and Potential Targets

The speaker discusses the broken trend line from the April low, which acted as support before being broken and back tested. The speaker called a top on January 28th due to the market slamming into those trend lines. The market broke down from a rectangle trading range and is now taking out the 200-period moving average. The speaker anticipates a potential drop to the February 2025 peak, which would be a 4% drop from last week's close.

Historical Comparisons and Future Expectations

The speaker compares the current market situation to 2022 and 2025, noting that a drop below the 50-week moving average typically leads to a significant decline. The speaker expects a drop below the 50-week moving average, followed by a rebound and then further selling. The speaker anticipates a potential rally back up to back test the confirmation line of the double top or even move back into the trading range. A death cross is likely in the future.

Market Structure and Supply Overcoming Demand

There has been a change of behavior in the market, with a failed breakout and lower highs and lower lows. The speaker believes the market will drop to at least 5300. Supply is now overcoming demand, with institutions selling as the herd was buying. The speaker warns against trying to catch the falling knife, as institutions continue to sell.

50-Week Moving Average and Potential Rebound

The speaker notes that in 2022 and 2025, the market moved just above the 50-week moving average before dropping significantly. A similar pattern is expected, with a potential 4-5% drop below the 50-week moving average. The speaker anticipates a bottoming tail next week, followed by a relief rally and then further declines. The speaker draws parallels to Bitcoin's divergence with the S&P 500.

Potential Bottom and Market Targets

The speaker suggests the market may bottom around 6240 or potentially closer to 6150 on the S&P 500 daily chart. A rally back up is expected, possibly back into the trading range or to back test the confirmation line. The speaker reiterates that the top is playing out as predicted.

Weekly Chart Analysis and Rebound Attempts

Analyzing the weekly chart, the speaker notes that in 2022, the market broke the 50-week moving average, got a bottoming tail, and bounced at the lower end of the cloud. A similar pattern is possible, with a potential recovery back up to try to get back above the 50-week moving average. The speaker suggests that the market will likely back test the confirmation line of the double top.

Bear Market Rally and Economic Concerns

The speaker anticipates a drop of more than 20%, possibly closer to 25% or 30%, followed by a bear market rally triggered by the Fed's emergency cuts. Concerns about higher oil prices may be the final nail in the coffin for the economy. The speaker will be looking for some type of bottoming process and a rebound attempt to back test the confirmation line or get back above the 50-week moving average.

Market Outlook and Key Indicators

The market has experienced a five-week losing streak after being told how bullish everything was. The speaker will be watching the jobs report and CPI data for further insights. A potential bounce is expected, followed by further sell-offs. The speaker highlights the importance of the 2025 February peak and the distribution volume. The MACD is moving towards the center line, forming its own divergence.

Oversold Conditions and Potential Rebounds

The market is becoming very oversold, but this doesn't necessarily mean the sell-off is over. A rebound is possible, potentially next week, but the market could go lower first. The speaker notes that a bottoming tail may form in the daily or weekly time frame. In both 2022 and 2025, the market back tested the confirmation line after dropping below the 50-week moving average. The speaker expects a back test of the confirmation line, but after moving further away from it first.

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Transcript

Full transcript of “S&P 500 5 Week CRASH Below the 50 Week Moving Average as Predicted- SPX DOUBLE TOP PATTERN CONFIRMED”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.

0:06 Okay, we continue continue to have the push downward below the 50week moving averages. I told you this was coming. This is now this is now our fifth straight losing streak. Five straight weeks down for the S&P 500 for the market. The Dow was down nearly 800 points, down 793 points, down 1.73%. S&P was down uh 108 points, down 1.67% to close at 6368. We were told this wasn't going to happen. Now, the people that told us it wasn't going to happen telling us all the corre it's a it's a correction and it's over as we continue to drop. That's what they were saying. Oh, the uh fear greed index

0:51 last week and earlier this week. Oh, it's over. As the fear green index continues to drop down to 10. NASDAQ down 2.15% down 459 points. Russell down 1.75%. The VIX was up 13.16% closing at 3105. The VIX is predicting in the next two trading sessions that the S&P 500 will have a update or attempted bounce for a recovery. There's an 85% chance that on Monday or Tuesday we have an update on the S&P. Now, we may go lower and we'll likely go lower, but we're likely going to attempt to bounce back above the 50week moving average at some point, but probably go lower first as I've been talking about.

1:41 Now, the market ends correction territory. The people that told us we were consolidating at the top when the S&P and the NASDAQ and the Dow were going sideways told us Dow 50,000 is a signal the consolidation is going to continue and we're going to have this next leg higher. The very people that told us the market would didn't top and that we were going higher are now the people telling us, "Oh, it's a correction and we're done." The people that told us it wasn't going to happen. Absolutely incredible. When we get a bounce back up, when we get a b big bounce back up, they'll tell us, "Oh, it's over again." They're going to do the same thing, the experts, the Bitcoin experts and the Moonboys

2:26 did with Bitcoin and telling us, "Oh, yeah, buy the dip." There's solid evidence that the market was in a topping process and it peaked. All you got to do is look at what happened to Bitcoin. There's a period of decoupling. Well, the market went sideways, but now it's going to play catch-up to Bitcoin as Bitcoin's already dropped 52% and likely has not yet bottomed. I think it will bottom in the near future as the market plays catch-up and then I think they'll diverge as they did back in 2022. You can see my latest Bitcoin video at the end of this video. The financial media, these experts on the financial channels and the people on social media, the people on X, oh, it's a healthy correction. healthy the the people that told us it wasn't going to happen. It's

3:12 a healthy correction. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. You told us it wasn't going to happen. You told us we were consolidating. We were going to go higher. Absol absolutely incredible. Now, even though Trump extended the negotiations uh agreed to extend the negotiations for 10 days till April 6th, I want you to watch crude oil to see what it would do. Talked about it all this past week here. We get these bullish signals on crude oil and the yield goes higher. And now in the futures market, the probability has shifted that the Fed will raise rates by the end of 2026 by uh five five 2% or pardon me 52%. 52%. Is the Fed going to raise rates? I don't think so.

4:00 Central banks raising rates. Yeah, I think markets are going to collapse. I think markets are going to collapse and the Fed will have to make a choice. As I've said, the Fed is going to have to choose. Are they going to to fight the good fight of inflation or are they going to support the economy? Going to try to fight inflation. They're going to raise rates. I seriously doubt that's going to be the case. What will more likely happen is we'll see the market collapse. You're going to get the jobs report one week from now. Two weeks from now on Friday, you'll get the CPI data. It's going to reflect the higher the higher inflation. Crude oil's rising. That's eventually going to create problems for the economy already have started. We're seeing the long-term yields, the 10-year yield that I follow so closely rising. That's going

4:46 to go to new highs as again we were told crude oil was going to go down. Dollar was going to go down and the dollar was going to collapse and yields are going to go down. The Fed's going to cut rates because everything's so wonderful. The people that told us that we were going to continue with the Dow 50,000, that was their narrative. I told you the complete opposite was going to happen. And now I'm being proven correct. As yields in the dollar rise, crude oil surges in the commodity cycle is usually the last to peak. As I've said over and over again, we'll probably see gold. We'll probably see gold make a new high peak to the day after the S&P 500 did. It will probably get one more push up for a wave five. Later come the summer, we'll probably see uh crude oil uh peak

5:34 and again the commodity cycle the last to peak. So nevertheless, I digress. I don't think the Fed is going to end up raising rates. I think the Fed will panic and do jumbo cuts and markets will collapse and that that's when the Fed's going to panic. That's what they did back in 2000. The bursting of the tech bubble when they began to do jumbo emergency cuts in January of 2001. That's what they did back in 2008 when they panicked again in January of 2008. Both cases telling us we're going to have this soft landing and how great everything and again complete opposite happened to what the Fed said would happen. Narrative is going to be the Fed can't cut rates. Inflation is going higher. I'm telling you, they're going to have to make a choice. And I think their choice will be the same as it was

6:20 back in 2008. aggressively start jumbo cuts even though inflation is going higher and inflation went higher and it was higher then than it is right now and the Fed was still doing jumbo cuts in 2008 at the beginning of 2008 they kept doing them. Inflation kept rising for the next 10 or 11 months. Eventually we got a deflationary bust. You're going to see the same thing happen again. I have person after person telling me, "Oh, you're predicting inflation is going to rise, so the Fed can't cut." I've had a couple different comments about inflation regarding that and making making that argument to me and again the Fed inflation kept rising in 2008 the Fed was doing jumbo cuts. So again because a person thinks something that

7:07 doesn't mean it's so Fed is going to have to choose. Are they going to choose to continue to try to fight inflation or are they going to choose to try to support the economy? I I believe they'll choose to try to support the economy. We're seeing deterioration in the labor market. We're going to get the uh jobs report next week and we'll get the CPI and we've already seen the PPI wholesale inflation surge for the last four reports. We're likely going to see that eventually spill over into the CPI. 2008 the inflation data was rising. The crude oil the crude oil prices were rising. Yet the Fed still did jumbo cuts. The signals have nailed it. We have now dropped five consecutive weeks. S&P's

7:53 dropped by 9 and a quarter%. NASDAQ and Dow have dropped 10% over 10%. Warned you it was going to happen. I warned you about this signal weeks ago that showed up right after the top. The signals did a very, very good job. But if you could take a moment and support this the channel right after you watch this video, I would really appreciate it. Find this information useful. Take a moment to do that rather than selling you something. That's how most YouTube channels make their money. I just ask that you do what you can to help out. Anything helps. Just follow the link below. It'll take you to a secured site and you donate any amount you want. If you could take a moment and partner with me and step up to the plate

8:40 and help out, I would really, really appreciate that. It takes a lot of time and effort to do this. And I'm just sharing with you the charts and indicators that I look at every single day. Please consider supporting the channel today. Check back on Sunday. I will be posting another video with uh different indicators. I'll be talking about the NASDAQ, but we're seeing now the S&P OS oscillator go into negative territory. This is not over. Some point we're going to get a bounce. We've been down five straight weeks in a row. At some point, you're going to get a bounce. Will likely be a counter trend rally followed by more aggressive selling. I have more fascinating charts to show you. Check back Sunday morning, 7 a.m. Eastern time, and I will have

9:26 another video showing you some amazing signals. We've now dropped five weeks. were getting forced selling because the herd was totally blindsided. So then now they're being forced to sell after buying the top. The institutions continue to have distribution. Really important charts in this video. Things are happening. Watch the video all the way through. Market the market going down. Crude oil rising back up. Concerns about a prolonged Iran war. We had a the weakest Treasury auction in over three years. Concerns, nervousness around the war, yields rising, getting a black candlestick though, but yields rising, 10-year yield here. Concerns

10:13 about inflation, you know, crude oil's rising, so there's concerns there. Concerns the Fed is going to now have to raise rates. It's not going to happen. Concerns about the debt. What did we just hit? 30 39 trillion the other day. Told you. I told you the 10-year yield is going to go to new highs. That's going to freak markets out. 10-year yield up uh over half a percent on Friday. For the week, it gained by 1.12%. The 10-year yield weekly chart. Again, I continue to tell you you're going to see a breakout of this triangle up to the upper boundary. You might pull back off of that level, but you're going to build momentum if you do, and eventually go to a new high. The 10-year yield is going to go above 5% and markets are going to freak. They're going to think the Fed has lost control.

10:59 Fed has lowered the Fed funds rate, they control the shorter term rates, but the longerterm rates, they're set in the marketplace. The Fed has no say. I believe markets are going to come to the conclusion that the Fed has completely lost control. That's when the markets are going to collapse and the Fed is going to panic and they are going to start jumbo cuts. Whether that's with Pal being here or be by the time he leaves, we'll see. The stock market's now beginning to crash to play catchup to Bitcoin. Going to happen. I told you we were bottoming in this consolidation continuation triangle with yields. Experts all over the place on social media. They told us we were going to have the yields collapse and that inflation was going to go down. and the yields were going to collapse and the dollar is going to collapse

11:45 and the Fed was going to cut rates because everything was so wonderful. These people these people are in La La Land. Okay, thing I've told you has happened. Eventually, you're going to see this break to a new high above 5% and markets are going to freak out. Told you the stock market topped and the dollar bottomed right at that same time. Here's the dollar daily chart. The dollar broke out of a bullish falling wedge. It back tested and now it's finding support at the 20 period moving average. Experts told us the dollar was collapsing over here and it it it was toast. It was over. I told you the dollar bottomed and we had a bullish diversions here in the daily time frame on the MACD and here in the weekly time frame. We got that bottoming too and we

12:31 formed this larger bull flag in the weekly time frame. It warned you about the divergences in the monthly time frame. And again, this is telling you it's going to go higher. We're uh bottoming at this parallel boundary that I drew with the upper boundary dollar monthly chart up 2.67% for the month and it's going to go up here and make new highs and the market crashed in 2022. The dollar surged just like back in the financial crisis. The dollar surged. So, the experts, all those on social media told us the stock market was so bullish. It was consolidating. It was going to go higher. It reversed and it topped and it got a topping. Completed a topping pattern. It got a fake phony breakout. They told us a dollar and the yields were going to go lower. Al crude oil is never going to happen. Everything they've said, the complete opposite has

13:17 happened. Everything I have said has happened. Warned you the warning signs were there with the dollar. The yields formed a double bottom. The commodity cycles last to peak and oil shocks usually tank the market. I've talked about all of this stuff. Now that the herd has been proven wrong, the experts have been proven wrong on everything they've said but that would happen and telling us we're not going to have a recession, a soft landing, which they're wrong about that too. They pro proven wrong about the dollar and the yield 10ear yield and crude oil and the stock market. Well, those same people want to do what the Bitcoin experts did. Oh, it's a correction. It's a healthy correction. The people that said it was never going to happen. You you can't make this stuff up. They've now been proven wrong. So now they have to

14:03 justify why they've been proven wrong and try to fit their square peg in the round hole as they tell us up is down and down is up. They're going to do what the Bitcoin traders did. They're going to keep buying the dip that keeps on dipping as it's now down 52%. I've warned you and warned you about crude oil and again I told you we're trying to bounce here off the 20we or 20-day moving average. This is the daily chart we're looking at. We had a divergence here, but again I told you we might move above this 119 uh area end up forming a larger diversions and it's possible before the commodity uh cycle is finished with crude oil anyways may move to 150 180 $200 a barrel easily.

14:53 saw the same thing happen where uh in 2008 crude oil rose sharply, continued to rise. The stock market collapsed. We're already in recession, yet crude oil continued to rise until July of 2008. Recession began in December of 2007. We've seen crude oil move up, you know,% here or nearly 100%. So again, a big move on crude oil up 7% 7.09%. 09% today. Crude oil closing above $100 a barrel, closing at 101 uh just over $101 per barrel and that rattling markets further back above the 10 period moving average bouncing off the 20. So you can see a larger divergence here, but then it may not be over until we get a larger

15:39 divergence in the weekly time frame. But here you might get this push higher uh MACD uh push higher in oil and the MACD might form a divergence a larger divergence along with the RSI stocastic turning back up and breaking above 50. So again I continue to warn those telling us that crude oils is it's over remember oh oh they're they're doing negotiations the war is about to end crude oil is going to collapse. Remember this we got a bullish golden cross here. The same people telling us crude oil is going to go down and there's going to be a negotiated settlement that's going to end the war to bring crude oil down. Trade of Hormuza is going to just reopen up and happy days are here again. These are the same people that told us geopolitical issues are bullish for the market. Don't you know none of the

16:24 things that are happening right now. They told us none of this was going to happen. And it is just as I correctly warned you it would. You got to do is look at the warning signs. warning signs in the bond market, the warning signs with the double bottom with crude oil, the warning signs leading up into the war, the risks with crude oil. I talked about weeks before the war started, the risks with the dollar going higher, concerns about inflation, and yet herd dismissed it all as they always do. The week crude oil was up 3%. had sold off back to that 20-day moving ma average. But in the weekly time frame, that rally or that selloff got bought. As I said, you may not see a peak until you get a very large divergence developing here. In the weekly time frame, we're overbought. See a

17:10 divergence develop in the daily some kind of pullback. We could see this continue into the with the seasonality into the summer like we did in 2008. Crude oil weekly chart here. Now, I warned you and warned you and warned you about these divergences in the daily time frame that they are likely not done and we're going to see the awesome oscillator begin to turn green and you'll probably see a larger divergence develop and the osmo awesome oscillator the MACD. This divergence that we had on other indicators like the RSI just gave us a pullback to the 20 period. Now you're getting a bullish reversal condition. So again, that's telling me crude oil is likely going to go higher, bouncing here off the 20 period moving average after pulling back, dropping back below 100, and now it's resuming

17:56 the advance, closing back above 100. So this could take markets down further. Remember I talked about dropping four or five% below the 50week moving average on the S&P and the NASDAQ and then rebounding back up that we were seeing distribution. The herd confuses that with with consolidation and we saw the distribution over and over the rallies were being sold. everything was being sold and heard the experts telling us how bullish this pattern is and it's a double top at major resistance levels. I told you over here NASDAQ peaked. I told you I thought they have some peak too. But if it

18:42 didn't, and I've said that ever since October all the way through the January peak and beyond, that if they don't immediately join Bitcoin and collapsing, we'll have a repeat performance of 2021 in 2022 where they go sideways and NASDAQ and S&P diverge from one another. That's exactly what happened. S&P went slightly higher. NASDAQ couldn't make a new high. The high that I called over on on October 29th for NASDAQ held. I was right about that. And I told you if I was wrong about the S&P, then we'd go up and we diverge just slightly above this high. Back in 2022, we moved 1.58% above that high. Here, we moved 1.20%. Wow, it's a breakout. And again, they create a buyside liquidity sweep. The institutions push push it up. It

19:28 causes the herd to buy the top. And then when they have to cover, pardon me, when they when they have to sell those positions, they their stops are triggered or they sell or whatever, it fuels the move down. The herd is being used by the institutions and then the retail traders that went short looking for top, well, they threw in the towel and they got frustrated and we've pushed higher. So, they got they got uh uh squeezed. They got a short squeeze. buying the top and the shorts a short squeeze. It created buying so the institutions can continue their selling. They successfully hurt both bulls and bears alike. I called a top on the 28th of January because

20:15 NASDAQ went right up to the previous high and it stalled just like it did back in 2020 uh late 2021. So P went on to make new highs in early 20 uh 2022. NASDAQ couldn't slammed into major resistance in the weekly and the monthly time frame. How's that breakout? How's that breakout working out for the for the permab bulls? How's that working out? H how's that buying the breakout working out as we've now dropped uh 9 and a4% on the S&P 500 and again NASDAQ and the Dow uh down 10%. warned you these diversions as will play out about the Adam and Eve double top. The institutions allowed it to go sideways for a very long time, months, just like Bitcoin get to get the herd good and complacent before we saw larger

21:02 distribution take place. And again, why did we go sideways? The herd, the retail investors, they were buying the top had the short squeeze more buying. The institutions needed that buying so they could sell their long positions and take new short positions. Needed to get the herd good and complacent to to mask what was going on. The herd did what they always do. They fell for it. Continued to jump below the 10 period moving average. Again, we get these topping tails and we have the topping tails around the 200 the 10. And again, we have people telling us, "Oh, it's over. Here we go. Told you we might get a right shoulder, but I told you it was less likely. I thought we'd drop below this level, take out the 50week moving average, and then get a rebound back up into the confirmation line, maybe even into the trading range as we did in

21:48 2022. We're now seeing the 50 on Friday drop below the 100 period moving average. The 10 has dropped below the 200, the 20 is moving towards it. The moving averages are pointing down. The 10 and 20 are below the 50. All pointing down. And now the 100 period which it was acting as support. The 100 period just like on Bitcoin the power of the 100 period moving average. It was acting as support. We've now broken it. We back tested it. Broke it. Back tested it. And now it's curling over. Now the people that told us we had a breakout, the people that told us how bullish Dow 50,000 was and S&P7000, now they're saying hurry up, buy the dip. That's what they were saying the previous week as we continued to drop. How's that buy the dip working out? Hm.

22:33 We'll probably move lower and then get some kind of attempted recovery at some point. But I told you we could drop again four or 5% below the 200 50WE moving average, pardon me, the 50WE moving average before that happens. We're holding below our 200 period. We're told this wasn't going to happen. Once again, sorry for posting a little bit later than I wanted to here, but uh the chart program is just running super slow. It's uh taking forever for me to bring them up here. So, I apologize. Again, I told you about the trend line being broken here from the April low. And again, we bounced off of it, bounced off of it, bounced off of it, bounced off of it, then broke it, then back tested. And I told you that's why I called a top on uh January 28th is cuz

23:20 we slammed into those trend lines where they intersect back testing the April trend line and then we went sideways and we formed a little head and shoulders pattern that broke down got back tested and then we broke down out of this rectangle trading range and I told you to be watching that. We broke down from it, back tested that, and now we're taking out the 200 period. And we back tested that, and I told you we're likely headed down here to the uh February 2025 peak or 4% drop from last week's close. I told you right here, we could see this level tested near the 400 period moving average. Again, broke down in 2022 and in 2025. Back over here, you dropped down below the 200 period. you ended up dropping over 4%. Over here, it was

24:08 4.66%. In 2022, it was just over 4% below the previous week's close when you've dropped below that 50week moving average. So, I told you I thought I was expecting uh a drop below that 50week moving average. Not a right shoulder, but I told you I didn't want to rule it out. So, this is where I think we're likely headed. This dotted blue line right here. I think we could rally back up and you might again uh get a back test uh moving further away from the confirmation line of the double top or even like we did in 2022 move back up into the trading range. Uh certainly can do that. 50 is dropping. Uh and again we're likely going to see a death cross in the future but that's going to take a little bit of time. Posted this chart as

24:53 we were going into the top. posted this chart the day after the top and told you that we topped January 28th, 2026. I posted the chart before all this happened. Move the lines down. They were pointing they're at the top pointing down. I moved them down so you could see the price action. Go see this chart. If you go to to on X and go to to King of the Charts, you can see it. Yeah. People laughing at me and mocking me for posting this just like they did with Bitcoin. But yet, oh gee, it's playing out. H we've had a change of behavior. We're taking out this low from November. We moved to a new high but then turned down and we tried to continue with the breakout moving higher but it was a failed breakout. We got a lower high and then we got a lower high lower low and now we're taking out this low over here.

25:38 There's been a change of behavior. The structure the structure changed. I think you're going to drop to at least 5300. Uh again it's not going to get there one day but I told you this was going to happen. And now you're starting to see that supply is now overcoming demand. The institutions were selling as the herd was buying and now the institutions are overpowering the buyers and we've run out of buyers. Therefore, the only way price could move was down. Now we're getting the by the dippers, the bargain hunters trying to again continue to catch the falling knife. The institutions continue to sell. I warned you about in 2022 and 2025, we moved to just above the 50we moving average.

26:24 That's a green line. And then when you when you uh drop below it, you ended up getting this significant drop. We dropped the next week. We dropped by over 4%. You got a bottoming tail here. And then you got the bounce back up to the 10 and 20 week moving average. I told you I was expecting about a four or 5% drop below the 50we moving average. Well, we did drop below the 50we. There was no bottoming till. We'll probably get one next week and then you'll get some kind of relief rally for a couple weeks and then probably lower. This is where Bitcoin diverged with the S&P. S&P bottomed here and then went lower. Bitcoin that was the bottom again as the market played catch-up to Bitcoin. Then they both got the bigger rally back up the and again that's going to be Fed starts the jumbo cuts which is coming. I told you if the market did what it did

27:10 here in 2022 and went sideways and got a double top with NASDAQ and S&P diverging then again then the Fed jumbo cuts would be delayed. Marketplace catch up to Bitcoin here we dropped this whole move down here was 12 1.5% and then we uh we dropped four over 4% from that low just above the 50we. Now let's take a look at what's going on right now. We dropped 2.2 two or two 2.12%, pardon me. Uh we did we did not get a bottoming tail, but we had that that close just above our 50 period of moving average, our 50we moving average last week, and I told you to be watching for a 4% move. Now, we did something similar to that. We had only dropped 11% back in 2022. We

27:56 dropped uh you know about uh what did I say it was 12.5% there. And if we drop down to this level, that's that dotted blue line. That's a dotted blue line right here around uh 60 6240 here on the S&P 500 daily. Below that you have 6150 is our November or I'm sorry our February uh peak of 2025 before the 21% decline. So, I think you're going to bottom around this area here, around the 400, around this blue line, and then I think you're going to get a rally back up, maybe back into the trading range, or just maybe back testing uh the confirmation line, which I probably should mark that here on this chart. Uh, but I was showing the rectangle on this chart, so I didn't put it.

28:42 Top's playing out. We'll see. Again, I think you're going to come down in here somewhere and or maybe even beyond it. maybe closer to 6150, but I think you're going to come down in here and then I think you're going to attempt to get back above the 50w week moving average. We did it over here. We dropped below the 50week moving average and then we attempted to get back above it. And I think you're going to see something like that and then I think the selling will continue as I've talked about again from 2022 and 2025. This is the weekly chart here in 2022. Again, we broke the 50, got the bottoming tail, uh bounced at the lower end of the cloud. We're just above that right now. Uh and then we bounced and we actually moved back into the trading range, but we couldn't stay there. And let me let me just bring up that 2022 chop close up here in the weekly time frame. Again, we dropped below the 50we moving average. We ended

29:28 up getting a bottoming tail. Well, we didn't get a bottoming tail this week. So, you might see one uh and a recovery back up next week to try to get back above the 50we if we try to back test here. We did back test, but we moved back into the trading range back up to the 10 period and the 20 period rejection there. I don't know that we make it that high in 2025. We didn't go back above into the trading range. You just back tested it. But in both cases, you did back test the confirmation line. So, we could go down further and then try to back test that rather than getting a right shoulder. You can back test the confirmation line of the double top. We ended up dropping 15%. Then we got the bigger rally. I think you're going to drop more than 20%. I think it's going to be more than that. Maybe closer to 25 or 30% or so. But when we

30:15 do, I think we'll get a bare market rally. I think it will be the Fed's emergency cuts that do it. We're starting to see the selloff. Again, concerns about higher oil prices maybe being the final nail in the coffin for the economy here, but I expected higher oil prices and it continued to warn you that the commodity cycle is the last to peak. We'll see what happens here uh around the 50week moving average. As we go into next week, I'll be looking for some type of bottoming process and some kind of rebound attempt to come back and back test the confirmation line to come back and maybe try to get back above that 50week moving average. No guarantee it happens, but the last two double top patterns it did. So, I think you got a pretty good shot that we're going to try

31:00 to do that. We've had a fiveweek losing streak after being told how bullish everything was. And again, look at the topping tails with these candles of indecision. surrounding the top. But just going back to that longer term weekly chart, I think you'll try to bounce. Maybe we get closer to the cloud here. Maybe we get closer to the 6150, the the November uh peak there. Just above it, as I said, maybe about 4% below our close from last week. Right now, we've closed 2% below that level. Over over 2%. So, again, going to be looking for that. and maybe we get closer towards the oversold area here on the stochcast on the uh RSI in the weekly time frame. Both of these cases 2025 2022 you didn't form a right

31:46 shoulder and you drop below the 50we and then you attempted recovery and again we've dropped for five weeks. So, we could see an attempted rebound going into this 10day period and then if things escalate, crude oil could still go higher and we could get a counter trend rally and still see a dramatic drop in the market. Have been extended until the day after Easter on April 6th. I'll be watching what happens next Friday with the jobs report. What happens the uh two weeks from now uh with the CPI data that we're going to get two weeks from today. we try to get some kind of bounce and then sell off further. But I think you're probably going to drop more before you and move further away from the confirmation line here of the double top before you get a

32:31 bigger recovery. And again, maybe the cloud here or blue line I showed you on the daily chart, this blue line right here is the 2025 uh February peak conversions is playing out. We were told that wasn't going to happen. We're seeing distribution volume. We were told that wasn't going to happen. MACD is moving towards the center line here, forming its own divergence. S&P move to new high. We couldn't even get above the signal line with our rally becoming very oversold. Now, that doesn't mean the sell-off's going to end when we see the stochastic recycle back up. Over here, it turned back up and we got some rallies and then it turned right back down and we made new lows. And then over here attempted some rebounds and it made a new low and then we hit this level got a rally big rally and then we made a new

33:17 low getting oversold. So at some point we're going to see a rebound that could be next week that we bottom out begin to try to rebound but we could go lower and see a bottoming tail uh in the daily time frame. Even see a bottoming tail here in the weekly time frame and at under the 50week moving average you had a bottoming tail here in 2025 with this double top. You had a bottoming till here in 2022 with this. But again, in both cases, you just back tested confirmation line here. You stalled at it here. You got above it, but you couldn't stay above it and the move failed. Probably see a back test of the confirmation line, but move further away from it first. Again, as I've said, dropping four or 5% away from last week's close.

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