The Biggest Stocks In The World Turn Bearish?

0:00 What happens when a stock market loses its leadership? Yes, guys, today's number is 10. And for all the wrong reasons, we've now seen double-digit losses on every one of the Magnificent Seven stocks from its peak. So, what could it mean? As we have concentration starting to show signs of problems. Yes, with those stocks and tech making up well over 35% of the market, what exactly happens next based on history? Maybe more importantly than all of this though, what are the bonds markets telling us right now? As we continue to see the move index go up, the S&P 500 hold a very important level, looking towards a big move, and of course, the VIX remain above 20 now for quite a few days. Well, we'll be taking a look at both an investor and trader mindset in

0:46 today's video as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos. Don't go anywhere, guys. There's a lot to get into. Let's do it right now. Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to markets. It's great to have you here and today we're discussing everything from the latest macro to what Wall Street's been up to in terms of the darkpool activity and of course some massive options flow. We'll kick things off though with discussion about the Magnificent 7 because yes, they're all down over 10% from their highs. And this is pretty shocking when you start to hear some of the stats here. Now, whether you're an investor or trader, if you haven't subscribed to this channel, make sure to do so in 2026, as of course, we will be going through each and every day of the markets, what is

1:32 happening, why you need to be understanding these things. And during a midterm election year, it is paramount that we're on top of these markets because the volatility so far, well, it could be about to get even bigger by the time we end this year. Now, let's talk about these shocking stats. Apple down 11, Nvidia down 13, Google 16, Amazon 16, Tesla 20 actually entering into a technical bare market from its peak. But here's where it gets really wild. Meta 24.1% down. And one of my old favorite stocks, Microsoft, down 31.6%. So, not only in a technical bare market for that stock, but down big time. Over a third of its overall market cap wiped, bringing us to over $3 trillion of

2:18 market cap wipe out. And you would think usually a market that would be down a lot more because the Federal Reserve did a rate cut last year though, we saw rotation, something we often see in late cycle markets. It's something we've been covering here on the channel for over five to six months in terms of flow. And what that's done is it's meant that we're only down around 5% on the S&P. And you would have thought that's unheard of when it comes to Microsoft being down 31%. But hey, that's markets and it's why you've got to expect the unexpected. So what are the concerns? Well, it's $200 billion of AI capex spend when it comes to some of these companies and of course a question mark on how much profit is really going to be made. And unfortunately, the stuff that's going on in terms of geopolitical tensions right now is also starting to bleed into, of course, the bonds market

3:04 and debt concerns. So, we've kind of got like multiple problems here where the market is also showing some complacency and hope that things will of course sort out very very soon. Now, let's talk about trends because Blue Kurdic here has put together one of my favorite trends to follow, which is obviously Google itself. And I like to know what are people doing and what are people searching. Now, it probably comes as no surprise that we've hit an all-time high when it comes to people searching obviously oil and yeah, this means that of course everyone is focused in on oil price. It also makes oil particularly hard to trade or invest in because of course if everyone's looking, it often means Wall Street is about to set some kind of large volatility trap and we'll look at that later on. But yeah, everyone searching it. Everyone in the

3:52 comments yesterday mentioned oil prices and here in Australia, I can tell you it's going up daily. It looks like we're over 100% price increase on diesel fuel here in Australia. So that may be one of the highest in the world so far. And they're talking about rationing fuel. So it just goes to show the impacts here are going to be felt. And I personally think, and I'd be interested to know what you guys think, that we will not be going down to cheap fuel prices even if everything sorts itself out quickly because they're going to have some kind of hold like 20 30% baseline, I think, at the at the minimum here. Now, let's talk about why this is structurally a big problem. We've looked at this chart a few times here from Blue Kurdic, but basically the market generally will show us in the flow what it's really kind of

4:37 thinking. And generally speaking, that first 60 to 100 days after a geopolitical tension and supply disruption begins is where we've seen markets in the past bottom or it's gotten much much worse. You can see here this particular one was absolutely shocking sending the market down 40% overall. Now I have done some stats on this and unfortunately there are reasons to say that you know this one could be worse than uh we've seen in a very very long time especially the longer it lasts and I'm sure you guys are aware of that already but we must be looking at the structure and if we're looking at previous periods obviously the first 60 to 100 days in market action is going to be important. The other thing that's going to be very important here again from Blue Kurdic is that intraday

5:24 reversals have been going up. So what that is is it's not the last two days, it's every day before that as well, which basically means that the market might be gapping down, by the end of the day it's up or the market opens up and by the end of the day it's down. And that shows a market that doesn't actually know its own direction. And that's a very big concern because of course if you have a market that doesn't know its own direction, then you have to say, is volatility going to be set in for a very long time? The longer this lasts, although the news is starting to say that maybe u there's something going to happen in terms of turning it around. Uh you can see here the longer it lasts usually the larger we will fall. And one of the reasons is because the volatility markets will stay above 20 for a very long time. Now here's a chart and it shows that basically the VIX which is something we cover all the time here on

6:10 the channel has been above 20 now for 18 days. Now, generally speaking, if it's above 20 for 50 days, we've been in, of course, a very large pullback and things get much, much worse. But 18 days, yeah, that's starting to cross some of the other barriers. And generally speaking, this is where you get those kind of larger pullbacks. So, is the market out of its problems yet? Not really. The other issue is that although a lot of people think that energy is really expensive right now and commodities are really expensive right now, if you actually have a look at commodities to equities ratios, they're still relatively low. There's a great chart here from Tavi Costa. He covers a lot of stuff uh from Azura Capital over on X. Certainly suggest giving him a follow. And basically one of the things here is

6:56 that we've been talking about this a long time as well because obviously we've been bullish on gold and silver throughout the last couple of years up until that volatility recently. And what that really tells us is that the markets hadn't really priced in the cost of a lot of these metals and commodities. Now, if they were to go up to where they were previously in terms of ratios, wow, that would be expensive. So I don't think that will happen but it just goes to show that in previous times uh there's been a lot more movement on oil and a lot more movement on metals overall. Now gold has been under a lot of pressure recently. Subu trade here had a great chart along with Mr. Derivatives. Shout out to them on X and you guys I actually reposted their stuff cuz I thought it was pretty awesome. But basically, it's just a simple stat and I

7:41 think a pretty powerful stat which shows that if gold is down nine straight days that it notoriously has had a base or has found some supportive action. Now, so far we're about 2 to 3 days in and it's kind of acting like the stat, but it is a good sign because of course we did hit the 200 daily moving average. We did hit previous levels of demand and gold is still you know a pretty good asset class when it comes to uh markets like this because of course uncertainty stagflation inflation all those types of things. Yeah, gold can fare. Okay, just remember though that one of the reasons why gold is down is it is ultimately a currency and currencies uh do get affected a lot by interest rates particularly if interest rates go up too much or the expectation of going up too much it actually makes them less

8:27 desirable and a lot of people don't understand that component of gold but uh it is a currency ultimately let's now have a look here at energy because of course energy leads food follows another one here from Tavi Costa we've been talking about this we've seen fertilizer stocks go up big time. And unfortunately, when fertilizer stocks have gone up big time and stuck higher for longer, that's led into, as you guessed it, food prices going up and of course staples themselves potentially coming under pressure. And I actually put out a newsletter over the last 24 hours. If you signed up, totally free down below. Make sure to do so for next week's one. And I'll share with you today the chart I was talking about just so you guys can get an update. But generally, these will be just for newsletter um people. So, make sure to sign up for the links in the description down below. totally free to do so.

9:13 Basically, Staples are coming under extreme pressure and they haven't actually failed at a certain level since the global financial crisis. So, we'll check that out in a moment. Let's now have a look at a couple of big darkpool activity positions that we've seen from uh of course volume leaders here. There's one here for inverse spy big position number 12 overall coming in near the close. Now, that could suggest that someone's looking towards the short end. You can see previously they did that a lot before the markets actually fell a little bit lower. Uh I wouldn't necessarily say it's for sure, but one of the things is we we do like to track this stuff because of course when markets then move you can kind of see how Wall Street does position its flow. Another one has been SanDisk. Now the only real reason we brought this up is because one of the things is that

9:58 everyone's looking at semiconductors. Fair enough. But maybe we should be looking at hardware as well because hardware went on a trip to the moon because of data centers and it has got a lot of clusters. Now the last time we saw clusters they led into a bull. Now we've got clusters at the peak possibly that's them starting to say you know what that was pretty good run little bit takeprofit. What do you guys think in the comments down below though? Is that a take-profit level by Wall Street or is that just more accumulation for the next move up? Wow. some of those hardware companies plus the Cosby the South Korean market have gone absolutely wild. We've also seen a lot of activity around this 6665 level. We don't know what exactly that is yet. So, of course, we're looking at price action, but it doesn't matter which one of the S&P 500

10:43 ETFs you're looking at. Most of them do show something similar. All right, let's now jump into the charts themselves. Another longleg dogee here for the S&P. What's that tell us? It has absolutely no idea what it wants to do next. It's waiting for news. And you can see here we've got three kind of in a row. Obviously, it's more a rejection one, but this is all around that key level of support. So, the markets really are struggling. They're showing signs of some weakness. And of course, we know that we have a downward trend line. We know that we have a lot of volume and activity at 6750 to 6780. And of course, we can understand why a smaller time frame structural base could be starting to form here. And again, large volumes are coming through. What's the higher

11:28 time frame showing? The 4 hour, the 3-hour, the daily, that type of thing. It's still a market series of lower lows and lower highs. Some 15minute, 1 hour kind of traders, they might be saying, well, it's a little bit of buying pressure in here. And possibly they're saying, well, we hope it holds the lows. So, it's a kind of like, you know, really news driven market. It's like the calm before the storm. Let's have a look here at the puts. We know 6,500 is the number one put level. We're updating this daily so you guys can see it here from Menthol Q and 6500 remains to come through when it is the main put level. There are so many puts sitting at 65, 66 and 64, but 65 is becoming the breakout and that's pretty much what we expected. So the markets do have some supportive pressure around this area just based on

12:15 the puts. If we lose those levels, it can create what we call a cascade or waterfall effect. It's pretty similar on the Q's. You can see here the NASDAQ is about 580 in terms of puts overall and 580 is showing up a lot. We're currently trading at 587. So you can kind of see again the markets are all hovering just above those major put walls. In terms of Bitcoin, it's a little bit different to the others, but 40 is the major call wall in this case. It's actually been a bit stronger than some of the other market areas. So be interesting to watch what Bitcoin does. Uh but Nvidia is another one we're watching. and we just keep getting 170 175 in terms of all expirations and it's a little bit patchy on the dayto-day kind of week to week stuff. So, um yeah, in this case I think it's all about really the S&P the cues

13:00 and we have to watch those levels. All right, let's jump into the charts here and have a look at some of the leads. The first lead we're going to start with is the volatility of the volatility, the VIX. Now, a lot of you guys don't look at the VIX, but we definitely want to be doing so. When the V-IX comes up, it's basically showing that there's some implied uh weakness coming through in the markets and a lot of people miss it. So, of course, we want to be watching that one pretty closely. And you can see here that when it spikes, generally the market itself has been declining. If this gets crashed back down, that's often a sign that the market is bottoming through. Now, is it crushed right now? I wouldn't say it's crushed. I'd say it's hovering near the highs. And this is the problem because we're also seeing the move index doing the same type of thing which is the bond market option volatility um itself of

13:46 the bofer uh spread. So basically this here you can see again we are getting extreme levels of movement on the move and until that gets crushed back down. So we got a crushing here that caused a basing structure. So you want to get crushed move index crushed VIX with price action towards the upside breaking higher highs. That's what we call crossorrelation and it's showing both the bonds market and the stock market is kind of in uniformity or some kind of unison. If they're disagreeing with each other, generally I'd be going with the bonds guys know more than the stock guys ultimately about debt and risk. What other things would we see at the same time? Well, the US dollar is still holding up. Now, it's doing what we would call a pit at this stage. If the markets break towards the upside, obviously that would be quite bad for the markets because it would suggest

14:31 money is flowing into the dollar as a hedge. If the markets are are going up, then maybe the dollar would weaken. At least that's the theory behind it. And you can see here as well some codes such as looking at high yield junk. Um, and you can see here spreads themselves. Risk is still relatively high in the overall bonds market. If this was to drop again, that would probably be saying that the market is starting to say, you know what, maybe tensions are calming and they're they're seeing some good signs on the future for whatever reason. Let's have a look at crude futures as well. you want to be watching crude futures. They were up for the last two sessions now after collapsing on Monday. And that's suggesting that again the market is pricing in or maybe we won't be getting uh you know um um I guess a fix to the situation at the

15:16 moment. So this is again something you want to be watching. Crude futures they're they're a decent read on on what the market thinks about the future and most retail traders don't do that. So again if you like that type of stuff, subscribe to this channel, smash that alert button. Uh we do cover stuff here that probably a lot of people don't. Let's now have a look at Nvidia and what's going on there. Again, 170 170 170. No real changes there to that one. And software again was down the last session and it's kind of now touching this most traded zone now. Software came down very hard. It's at a very big demand zone and there's huge volume. So yeah, it's kind of like a basing structure. interesting that software was downed and Bitcoin's holding and they have been fairly well correlated as we've shown over the last couple of vids. So, that'll be another big one.

16:03 Now, I want to go over the newsletter uh kind of chart of the week, which is Staples here. Now, I do suggest you check it out in the links in the description down below. Sign up for free. But I want to kind of show you guys on the monthly. You might notice here that since the global financial crisis, we've never closed below and held below Staples 50 exponential moving average. Now, why that's important is it's kind of showing that each time the street has not only rotated into Staples, but at the same time, they've felt good enough about the, let's say, the health of the American consumer and the health of the general middle class, lower class, upper class, everybody. And we're not kind of, you know, in that significant real structural decline. Now, could that be about to change because of inputs going up on overall

16:49 food costs? You can see it's already down 10% from its peak and we've got a very weird looking support here that that could be broken in the future that just so happens to also line up with around that 50. So this is going to be I think a very important chart for us to watch about whether the street thinks there's actually something much worse in the markets than just let's say a standard pullback. Now we do see things like RK holding okay surprising really because of course a lot of these companies that are held in Kathy Woods fund are more the towards that hyperrowth side but they're still kind of structurally holding for now and the NASDAQ itself is holding right around 24,000 which we know is that all important zone and you kind of see that through most of these markets at this point you can see here the Chinese market holding right around that support

17:35 becomes resistance and the German market doing exactly the same thing support becomes resistance you These are critical levels. If the market doesn't hold these, I mean, the bears are in control of these charts. You can see here, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs. Not exactly ideal. I did just want to also note here that Oracle is still, you know, it's a total outlier. Look at this thing. It's down so much. Like, it's down 59% from its peak. And I just want to bring it up because of course, if it's in the press, it's in the price. Really comes into play here with Oracle. And it just goes to show you've got to expect the unexpected. If you thought over here when the price action was happening that Oracle will be down 50% plus over the next year, most people would say you're crazy and it's just a good kind of you know riskmanaged concept here to bring

18:22 back so that we can always say you know this is what you have to think about when you're in markets. You've got to expect the unexpected. It can happen. Ethereum again it's kind of showing those signs of potential inverse head and shoulders on the small time frame. you've got that little bit of supply over here, but if we do break towards the upside, I guess the distance technically from the invest head and shoulders would be that resistance. And it's kind of similar in Bitcoin. So, it's really interesting to see that these markets are actually holding better and that's often because the markets themselves were already beaten down a lot. So, rotational flow goes into them while money comes off, I guess you would say, the riskier side at at least how that's how the market sees it. So, in summary, at the moment, guys, what have we got going on? Well, we have

19:09 an S&P that's incredibly neutral, although still in a series of lower lows and lower highs on the slightly higher time frames. We have trend lines and we have options levels. We have all sorts of things around that zone. We obviously have a news-driven market, which means that the market itself actually clearly doesn't know what it wants to do next because you're getting longleg doies everywhere. And we also have a market that still has bond debt risks in it. I think the big problem here is we have a totally different market to any other year that we've looked at. This isn't 24. This isn't 23 driven by tech anymore. It's now got real concerns in it. And do remember we have IPOs coming this year as well in AI stocks. That's going to be something we really want to talk about over the next couple of months. So make sure to sign up for our

19:55 free newsletter down below. Follow us on X and of course subscribe here on YouTube. Thank you so much and I really appreciate each and every one of you. Say to Mark.