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0:00 The stock market's stuck, but tomorrow's events might change that. To find out what happens next, it's helpful to look at what investors are doing with their cash, which major asset managers are suddenly hoarding and retail is short on. The same pattern appeared before the drops in 2022, 2020, and even before the 2018 trade war. Tomorrow, we'll hear from the Federal Reserve for the first time since January. And another market moving event is about to start. Today we cover everything to know and where the action is right now. 63% of the S&P 500 finished green today and oil prices rose slightly to $96 per barrel. Trump was pressed a lot today when the war would end and all investors
0:46 have to work with is soon. So, everyone is grasping at straws right now and individual investors are holding on to less cash with cash positions falling to 14.19% in February, far below the average of 22% while major global asset managers are doing the exact opposite. And actually, they've shifted to cash positions at the fastest rate since the COVID pandemic. Average cash holdings in portfolios that manage over $529 billion in assets rose to 4.3%. And we can see that when individual investors hold less cash, it has preceded large drops in the stock market like the 2022 crash, COVID collapse, and 2018 pullbacks. Very interesting. And what's also pretty interesting is that for the fund
1:31 managers who are adding to their cash positions, they cited that fear is building around the impact of the war and turmoil in the private credit market. So when you put all this together, the uncertainty alarm bells are definitely starting to ring. It's like we're seeing some hidden fracturing underneath the surface. And tomorrow is going to be a pretty big deal. At 2:30 p.m. Eastern time, the market will finally hear from Jerome Powell for the first time since the war began. The FOMC holding rate steady has all but been decided. So, what we'll really be looking for is what's coming next. With oil just under $100 a barrel, and the impacts that'll have on inflation, what Powell says could really shake things up. This is what happened at the last FOMC meeting on January 28th. After the
2:17 last interest rate decision and Powell spoke, the market just chopped around as we're used to seeing in 2026. But Powell does have a history of moving markets. Yeah, he is the big man after all. And the odds of a rate hike over the next 3 months is now higher than the odds of a cut. Actually, a month ago, no one would have believed this. If Powell is overly hawkish at this FOMC press conference, that would be really big and probably not in a good way. And this is happening as SPY is 4.11% away from all-time highs. Today, SPY did technically move higher, but you can see as we zoom out, we're still in the chop zone. Ever since we've double bottomed around 662, the upper end of the range is closer to 683 to 684 where we peaked
3:02 out last Tuesday. So, I'm going to be watching that zone if the market does pop as a potential target here over the next few trading days. But there are, of course, some resistances before we get there. I really like the high of day today around 67450 all the way up to 676. This is a big range where the SPY has moved multiple times over the past couple of weeks. And of course, there was the low from pre-market today around 66550, which will be a good lower level to watch for tomorrow before we do retreat back down to 662 and the low of week from last Friday. Yeah. And another thing to keep in mind is that the market really hasn't done anything yet. And based on the past 75 years of data, it actually has room to fall more. Over the last 75 years, the average draw down has
3:49 been 14%. This year's draw down is only at 5% which is kind of crazy to say. And if we did see a 14% draw down from highs, SPY would be sitting around 600 per share. I could not imagine seeing SPY itself trading at $600 per share. If you look at that on the daily chart, that would put SPY all the way back down to the peak right before the liberation day selloff. So, hey, it would be a perfect support, but uh that is the average number. So, I will keep that in mind. And of course, this week is also a triple witching week. We have this big event coming up this Friday. And triple witching refers to when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire simultaneously. It happens four times a year. And some
4:35 traders like to call it freaky Friday because it can cause high trading volume, increased volatility, and sharp price swings. So keep that in mind. But I was also pretty surprised to hear that the SEC is now preparing a proposal to eliminate the requirement to report earnings quarterly and instead give companies the option to report earnings twice a year, meaning companies would now have the choice how much investors hear from them. Publicly traded companies in the US have reported results every 3 months for over the past 50 years. We're expected to find out more next month on this, so it's definitely something to keep an eye on. And if this does happen, it'll probably make for much bigger earnings moves. >> It definitely could. And we've been seeing a lot of big earnings moves over the past few months, of course, with a
5:21 lot of AI hype and spending. So, be ready if they don't have to uh report as often. And speaking of the earnings coming up this week, we do have some big reports tomorrow. Chip stocks have been exploding in the short term. And Micron will report in after hours along with Redcat, which is a drone stock that has been moving up with the Iran conflict. We do have Baba on Thursday and FedEx and after hours Thursday as well to also keep in mind, but I think Micron's going to be the big dog this week. >> Definitely. And they've been crushing it. So, it's going to be a highly anticipated earnings report. They actually made new all-time highs today and they continued to fly in after hours. So, this is going to be the biggest report of the week. And besides that, Tom, let's jump right into some setups and predictions. A stock that's close on my radar is RKLB and it is to
6:09 the upside. Uh this stock did very well today. There's a lot of talk about the SpaceX IPO coming up and Rocket Lab is kind of like the proxy for investors who want exposure to the commercial space boom, but because they can't buy SpaceX yet, they go to other tickers. And then today also the FAA confirmed that all major operators including Rocket Lab have successfully moved to the part 450 streamlined rule. Essentially this will allow a single license to cover a whole bunch of different operations. It'll reduce a lot of paperwork and uh make the whole process a little bit easier. We can see that while Rocket Lab crushed it today and while they have been doing very well over the past few months, they did fall off a little bit in after hours after they announced a $1 billion
6:56 offering. Uh Rocket Lab is on my bullish radar. But um as always, it's important that the bullish price action actually continues to confirm uh by tomorrow. If the stock starts selling off in a major way, then you know, of course, you don't want to just blindly throw your money at this. >> That was amazing price action intraday. Maybe this pullback will provide a good buy the dip opportunity tomorrow if the momentum does come back in and continue. So I'll be watching it very closely. And I'm also watching airlines very closely tomorrow as well. Delta Airlines along with multiple others were running today. And despite rising jet fuel costs, Delta, American, and JetBlue raised revenue guidance for the first quarter on Tuesday ahead of a JP Morgan industry conference. Delta's CEO specifically
7:41 told CNBC that growth in demand is offsetting the rising cost of jet fuel. I think that that was a huge statement to make today because airlines have actually been falling off quite a bit since the Iran conflict kicked off. Recently, DAL did bounce around its lower support zone right around 5550 to $56 where it's held multiple times in the past. So, that is a critical zone to keep holding here. Uh that gap up today was significant and I like the way it had a strong close around the high of day two. If we actually go to bookmap with Delta Airlines, you can see how there's a lot of sellers stacked up overhead right around 66 to $66.25. I'm going to be watching that zone very closely for a breakout. If we can break through these sell walls, I'll be watching for a potential run all the way
8:28 up to $70, which is the next major cell wall uh overhead just past 68. So, that's what we're looking at. Shout out to Bookmap for the X-ray vision and the cell walls. It'll be important to break that upper range tomorrow. >> Beautiful. And again, if you guys haven't checked out Bookmap, you're definitely missing out. Check it out in the link in the description and comments down below. Another stock that's close on watch is also to the upside. Um, I know we talked about this stock a lot over the past few weeks. They service the American drone industry. They had a good uh 12% update today. Donald Trump Jr. is a major shareholder of the company and it's uh uptrending on multiple different time frames. It's still on my bullish radar, but this of course doesn't mean it has to rise tomorrow. It's more so like a shorter to medium-term trade. I would
9:14 like to see it retest those recent highs around like $24 to $2350. Um the more pressure it puts on recent highs, the better. Uh as always with inplay stocks like UMAC, they're going to be volatile, so be prepared for it. But so far so good. >> Yeah, it was good to see the bounce back on today, closing up over 12%. I will be watching it tomorrow as well. And another stock I'm watching is SanDisk, ticker symbol SNDK. They had a really strong close up 2.35% as the memory chip players continued to pop off. It was hard not to look at WDC either, which had a crazy move today, moving up to 315. So, I guess I'm going to do a bit of a double call out here, but I'm watching both of these stocks into tomorrow. If we see SNDK and WDC
10:02 continue with this current momentum, I'll be watching them. I like SNDK a little bit more because what it's doing right now is it's actually testing the all-time high and slightly breaking out past it at the end of day. So, if we just continue and hold above that all-time high into tomorrow morning, look for more good momentum. My gosh, Mike, these stocks are getting insane. Just be careful because they are a little volatile though. >> Very volatile, especially SNDK. But yeah, we'll definitely keep it close on watch. And let's jump right into today's momentum plays with the first one. We have Space Mobile, ticker symbol AS to the upside. >> Another great move for AS. If they can break out above 9745, then watch them to the upside. >> With the next one, we have Uranium Energy Corp. ticker symbol UEC also to
10:49 the upside. >> Yeah, and UEC had a really strong close today as well. If they can break out tomorrow above $142, just above 14, then watch them to the upside. >> Then with the last one, we have Cleveland Cliffs, ticker symbol CLF, to the downside. >> Cleveland has been falling off a little bit in the short term. If they end up falling down under $8.30 tomorrow, look at the downside continuation setup. >> All right, so we have these three stocks on the radar for potential continuations tomorrow. As always, have stop losses. know why you get into every trade you get into and focus on making smart disciplined trading decisions above all else. We have a lot of great free information in the stock discord regarding this. So check that out as well. The link for that is in the description. And besides that, let's jump right into today's $1.49
11:37 million big money trade. Today we're looking at Shopify, ticker symbol SH. The trader here traded the 130 strike call options that expire on September 18th of 2026. Looking at this trade, it's an at the money trade. It has a few months of time to it, roughly 185 days. Uh Shopify is a huge e-commerce company as I'm sure many people know. And they had some recent news where they're in the process of re-engineering themselves to be like the infrastructure for AI shopping agents. uh instead of humans clicking through websites, Shopify is positioning itself to be the backbone of AI agents to handle product discovery and checkout. So, it looks like the trader here might be capitalizing off that news. Um, I like how these options
12:24 have a lot of time to them. I like how they're at the money. They are a bit expensive though, so they won't be for everyone, but certainly an interesting setup. Over the past couple of years, Shopify has really been trending to the upside in a very solid way, too. If we look at the uptrend going back to like the beginning of 2024, obviously they're in that clear uptrend and recently they had dipped down and now Shopify is coming up off of this massive dip and they're bouncing off of a huge zone of support. This zone of support is pretty crit critical for Shopify. It was a previous resistance as well. So, I'll be watching this uh level like a hawk as this plays out this year. If we did see that lower recent low start to give out, I would get a bit worried about this play. But with the bounce already starting to play out and of course with it dipping in the shorter term as well,
13:09 it's kind of providing a good buy the dip opportunity here as long as you use that lower level as a good stop range. Of course, you could probably hold it a bit longer if you wanted to, but that's kind of what I'm looking at with Shopify. And there is a lot of room back to the upside, too. Of course, if they do expand and let's say AI uh commerce starts to pick up a lot more, they are positioning themselves well for it. So, I'll be watching for that move back. If they do have a significant pop, I would not be surprised if they got to 150 to even 160, somewhere within that range fairly quickly, considering how much they can gap up. Uh, they've gapped up significantly in the past. >> And like you pointed out, they have a much broader, longer uptrend going on, too. And, you know, there's some news to back it. So, keep the setup on the
13:54 radar. Should be interesting. If you are new to the channel, welcome and consider obliterating that subscribe button. For every single trading day, we post brand new videos just like this one, showcasing multi-million dollar big money trades, spy levels, and analysis, stocks to keep on your radar, upcoming events, historical stats, and so much more. If you subscribe, you'll get our videos recommended to you more often. And we also want to give a giant shout out to today's member of the day, Shray in the Stocked Up Discord with some nice gains with some Nvidia trades uh specifically in Iron Condor. So, huge shout out to you. Keep up the great work going forward and it's nice to see some uh spread action going on here as well. So, shout out to you, Shay. And if you guys are into short-term trading, check out Bookmap. You can save quite a bit
14:40 with the link in the description and comments down below. It can be really useful in this uh choppy market. uh because you can see exactly where key buy and sell orders are stacked up from much larger players. You can do so much on bookmap and again you can save quite a bit down below. So check that out. But besides that, thank you guys so much for watching and let's crush it in the market tomorrow.
