This Rare Bitcoin Signal Only Triggered Twice Before... Until Now

0:00 The Super Bowl signal that only triggered twice in Bitcoin's history just flashed again. Now, each time this has happened in 2017 and 2020, Bitcoin went on an exponential run. And based on the data, this time could even be way more powerful. Now, most people won't realize what's happening until it's too late. But if you understand this signal right now, you can position yourself before the crowd. Now, I'm Mark Moss. Since 2016, I've helped millions navigate Bitcoin cycles using data, not hype. I'm a partner at a leading Bitcoin venture fund, and I advise companies building the future of finance on Bitcoin. Now, in this video, I'm going to walk you through the same system, the same signals that we use to make decisions and how you can use them, too. So, let's go.

0:47 Okay, so we are talking about a bull signal. We're talking about a signal change. There's times and periods where things change and of course you have to change your investing strategy. Now there's one chart that's commonly ignored when we talk about this. So you hear me lot talk a lot about debt debt cycles. We talk about um M2 money supply things like that. And a lot of people think about this right here. Okay. This is the US M2. Now of course this makes sense because the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world. And so if we look at the US M2, the money supply, then we can see that as this goes up, then of course asset prices go up with it. As a matter of fact, the S&P 500 moves about in lock step with this. Uh the national median home price moves

1:32 pretty close in lock step with this. But when it comes to more international assets like Bitcoin, like gold, and other commodities, we want to be looking at another chart. And we're talking about the global M2, not USM2, global M2 or global liquidity index. Now, I make a bunch of videos about this and there's a lot of ways to break this down, but if we look at this very simply, we can look at global M2 and we can understand if it's growing or rising. So, these green marks are when it's expanding rapidly. The red down here is when it's declining rapidly, but of course, it's always going up. So, what we can see here is the green is the year-over-year growth. The blue line that we have here is the money supply. So, it's always going up and we can see how fast it's expanding.

2:18 And then what we have overlaid here is the red line is the Bitcoin price. Now, the reason why I'm showing you this is because what happens like almost every chart is we have periods where it goes up and then it consolidates and then it has a breakout and then it consolidates and it has a breakout. Sort of like our life. Now, what we can see in this chart is there's a time where this M2 money supply hits a consolidation and then it breaks out and it goes higher and then it consolidates and it goes way higher and then it consolidates and it goes higher. Now, it's important to understand this because it's what push it pushes asset prices higher. We can see in a chart here, this is from Real Vision over here. Everyone loves to correct me in the in the comments about that. Of course, it has it right here on

3:03 the chart. Okay. What we can see here is that global M2 supply, which is the black line, overlaid with the Bitcoin price, which is the pink line. Now, this has about a 12week lag. So, this doesn't move dayto-day, right? One to one, but what we can see is they're matched almost perfectly. And when we go into a consolidation pattern and then we see M2 breakout with a lag, what do you think happens next? You can be an elementary kid and understand the pattern. And of course, that is Bitcoin breaking out. Now, this has been a major predictor of every big Bitcoin bull run that we've had. 2017, 2020, and it just triggered again. Now, the question is, how big and how fast is the move up in liquidity? And what will

3:49 that mean for Bitcoin's price when we look at it from historical angles? And uh don't worry, I got you covered on that. Let's break that down. So the first thing we want to know is that in these past global liquidity breakouts, what's happened? Let's take a look. We can see that in 2017, we saw about a 20x return. Now again, just going back to this, we see the explosive move up, the consolidation, the explosive move up, the consolidation, the explosive move up, and the consolidation. Now, if you can zoom in, editor, zoom in, you can see there is a breakout forming. The question then is how big and how fast and how severe will that move be. Okay, we're going to break that down for you. I just wanted to kind of show you what

4:35 that looks like. Now, again, if we overlay that, we can see that in past breakouts, like right here, we had a pretty big move, right? This was pretty big. But in this breakout, you can see how much bigger this move was. Why? Well, cuz that was during the pandemic, right? the entire world went into a massive liquidity easing cycle because you know they shut the whole world down. We had to make up for that. And so what we really want to understand is how big will this move be? How severe will that be? So we can understand how this impacts prices. Now in this Super Bowl cycle, Super Bowl, not Super Bowl like like football. Um like I said, we have two things going our our way right now. Number one, we have global easing, global liquidity. Okay, that's happening all over the world. The other thing

5:20 we're looking at is rates, specifically the 2-year rate. So, what we want to know is when is liquidity rising and when are interest rates dropping because when those two converge, that's what creates this super bull cycle that we're talking about. Now, we also have the 50-year cycle that has four distinct phases. I talk about this all the time. And we know that phase two of that is what's called the frenzy phase. So we have the eruption phase, then we have the frenzy phase and this is the biggest part of the move. So we have the whole world easing going global liquidity, adding global liquidity. At the same time, we have the Fed and all the other central banks around the world talking about lowering rates and on top of that we have the largest part of the cycle all framing up at the same time. Now

6:07 that we have that, let's go back and see where this could potentially take us. Okay, so if we look at historical multipliers from the bare market bottom, so Bitcoin goes up and down. So from the time it hits the bottom in the bare market to the top of the next cycle, what do we what do we typically see? Well, in 2013, Bitcoin's price was $13. Don't you wish you could go back in time and just buy it at 13 bucks? You could buy it at $13. That was the trow. That was at the bare market. At the top of that cycle, it was $1,100. Imagine buying it for 13 right into 1100. It was an 85 times return. Now in that part that was really early days. There wasn't a lot of buying. The asset was very small. Didn't take a lot of buying to get it up there. So we had early retail. Um there was no liquidity constraints, nothing like that. Then

6:53 2017, the next cycle, the trow, the bottom, the bare market of that cycle was 200. So it' gone from 13 to,00 and then all the way back down to 200. This is around um when I started looking at this cycle. 2015 is when I got in around 300. Um, and then we saw it go all the way to 20,000. So from 20 from 200 to 20,000 that was a 100x return. Now during this time this was when we had the ICO mania phase. We had this very low base to start with. We also saw the first sort of institutional um adoption coming in where we had the futures go live in 2017 and we took it there. Then we have 2021. Now, we saw in 2020 it fell all the way down the trow, the bottom of the bare market around 3,100

7:39 and then it went all the way to 69,000 and that was a 22x return. Now, this is when we started to get the institutions were starting to come in and it was also postcoid. So, we sort of had that big rush of liquidity that came in um and maybe it got cut a little bit short. Right? Cycles have averages and this one was a much lower. The question is now our bottom was 16,000 in this cycle in 2022 and the question is how high will this go? Right? Let's take let's take a look at that. So we can only take a guess but let's put some ranges in it. Right? So we have an average but let's take a look at the ranges. So let's just say if we apply the same multipliers to 2022's bottom of 16,000 how how high could it go based off of that? Well, if we only look at an eight times, which is a very

8:24 conservative conservative number, as you saw, we saw a hundred times before that, um, that could push us up to about $128,000, which means we might be getting somewhat toppy. If we get more of like a 12x return, we could go up as high as 192,000. And if we go up a 20x return, which is definitely optimistic, but that's more like what we saw in earlier cycles, that could put Bitcoin up to about $320,000. Now the question we have to ask ourselves is which one do we think is likely to play out and we have to look at other indicators to try to figure that out. All right. Now to try to guess the future we look at a lot of indicators now and when I'm looking at far out in the future I'm looking at more fundamental stuff the what I call you know reading the leaves the tea leaves like technical analysis is not

9:10 going to tell us the future. We want to look at the fundamentals and of course the famous last words are you know this time is different but is this time different? Let's take a look. So there's a lot of things that are different. Okay. So we're not in 2017. We're not in 2020 anymore. This time we know from the 50-year historical cycle, the four phases, we went from the retail adoption to now the institutional sovereign phase. So we know this is different. So remember in the inst in the in the eruption phase, the first phase, retail comes in, they buy up everything, but we're talking people with hundreds of dollars or thousands of dollars, maybe hundreds of thousands of dollars. In the institutional, in the sovereign phase, we're talking about hundreds of billion dollars. A matter of fact, year to date, just here in 2025, we've had over almost $85 billion has gone into Bitcoin, Wall

9:59 Street, institutional plays. 85 billion. So, we're talking big big numbers. Now, another thing is that we've gone from having headwinds to tailwinds. What do I mean by that? Bitcoin since it's been around has faced massive opposition. In the early days, it wasn't really wellnown, so it didn't have a lot of opposition, but the political regime, the central bankers, the politicians have always been against it. The Biden administration was very aggressively against it. As a matter of fact, they practiced oper operation choke point 2.0 where they basically blocked banks from being involved in Bitcoin. You couldn't even send money from your bank to Bitcoin. Elizabeth Warren ran on a platform literally called the anti-crypto army. So heavy heavy heavy heavy headwinds, obstacles, right? So

10:46 Bitcoin has gotten to where it's at in spite of all of that. And all of a sudden that switched like a 180°ree turn. The headwinds now became tailwinds. Now we have the entire United States government opening up a strategic Bitcoin reserve, opening up a sovereign wealth fund to buy Bitcoin. You have the president, the president's companies, the president's sons taking billions of dollars. They just announced taking $2.5 billion to buy more Bitcoin. So we went from having massive headwinds to now having massive tailwinds. So how much more does that change the trajectory of where that goes in the future? Now the one thing we have to understand about this is that because we now have what we call the smart money, you and I were dumb. The smart money is the institutions, right? The people that are

11:32 really connected politically, also financially. They frontr run this. they're they're already taking position and so are you. But what happens is when they take positions then they it causes some compression potentially. So we've gone from having massive headwinds to now having massive tailwinds. We have huge amounts of money coming in but it could already be front running this and it could potentially compress this. So we have to take all of that into consideration when we're trying to figure out where this goes. But based off of this, what should we be doing? Well, the first thing we would do is I always built my sort of whole career on a on a saying. I think it was Tony Robbins that said, "Success leaves clues." So, you find other people that are already successful. You do about the same things, you get about the same results. So, when you see, you know,

12:18 Larry Frink, the largest asset manager in the world, head of Black Rockck, saying, "I bought Bitcoin." When you have Ray Alio, the large, you know, the founder of the largest hedge fund in the world, saying, "I bought Bitcoin." You have uh President Trump, the founder of or the leader of the free world, saying uh I'm buying billions of dollars of Bitcoin. But your cousin or your hair stylist or your driver is telling you that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scam. Who do you think you should listen to? Okay. So, the first thing is we want to understand we are not more connected or smarter than they are. But what we don't want to do is we don't want to be gambling. Okay. We don't want to be jumping into this blindfolded. We want to understand what's going on, what we expect to happen, and we want to position oursel intelligently. So we want to understand the signals that can tell us where we're at in the cycle. Now if we can

13:03 understand this, then you and I have the ability to frontr run the institution. So instead of them getting in front of us, we have the ability to play the game with them. Now there's three pillars to understand this. All right, the first one is there's macro cycles. Okay, so I already kind of showed you that. These are the liquidity levels. We looked at those. The liquidity index, the M2, global M2 growth, um things like that. The two-year yields, we've talked about those. All right, the next thing we want to look at is price trends. So, I like to look at breakouts. We talked about that. There's a couple that I like to look at. So, the first thing is one that you could just use. This is very simple. This is a 200 day or 200 weekly moving average. So, that's the yellow line right here. Anytime the Bitcoin price gets down to this level, these are have

13:49 always been historic buying opportunities. Like imagine if you could have bought here or here and ridden that up. You bought here and you rode that up. Okay. So, anytime it gets down to this level, those are historic buying opportunities and we know that we're nowhere near that level right now. Okay. Now, another one we want to look at is onchain data. The beauty of Bitcoin is gives us this whole new data set that we don't have with other assets. Now, I'm going to show you three that I use. If you want to know the top five onchain indicators that I use, then you should probably be watching. I'll go ahead. Let's just uh put that video up here or we'll link it down in the show notes down below. But three that we can look at real quickly are the MVRV. This is the market value and the realized value. And so we can see this is the Bitcoin price in the black line here. And the

14:34 blue line is the realized cap market cap. But what this is right here is this is the MVRV score. Now you can see when it peaks really high, we're at the peak of a market. But right now it's not peaking anywhere near high, which means we have a lot of room to run in this market. I like to look at that. Another one we look at is this NUPPL. This is the net unrealized profit and loss. And this tells us sort of the motivations or the emotions that people holding Bitcoin might feel. And they could tell us when they might want to be taking profit. And again, we can see when this spikes high, the Bitcoin market spikes high. When this spikes high, the Bitcoin rises high. When this spiked high, the Bitcoin price was high. But here, we're nowhere close, which means this is probably going to run way up before we

15:19 get some convergence up there. So again, we're nowhere near the top. Another indicator that we look at is this SOPR. Um, it's another easy one to understand. This is a spent output profit ratio. So again, when we understand where people are at in profit, we can understand what their emotions are and if they might be selling. So for example, a lot of people, if they're underwater, they don't want to sell right now because they want to wait till they get back in profit. But if they're sitting on lots of profits, they might want to sell to pay off some debt, buy a new house, or just take some cream off the top. You never go broke taking a profit. And what we can see is when it spikes really high, we see Bitcoin tops spoke right here, right here. But again, we are very low. We're nowhere near the top. So what these indicators are telling us is that we're nowhere near the top of the market cycle yet. So we can see that we have

16:06 the breakout in global liquidity. It just broke out. We're not the high part of it. It's just taking off. We know that in in previous periods like this, Bitcoin has gone up 20 times, 80 times, 100 times. And we can see that we're nowhere near the top of that cycle right now. Okay. So, what are the smart moves to make in this environment? Well, again, we don't want to go in blindly. We don't want to gamble here. We want to look at the data and position intelligently. But we do understand that the clock is ticking. The breakout happened. Liquidity is rushing in. Bitcoin is sitting at alltime highs. And we know that these cycles don't last that long. So the clock is ticking. Now most people, they do it the wrong way, which is why most people are average. They're not the 1% that are wealthy. And

16:52 they chase price. So what they're doing is they're looking at the price. Well, Bitcoin right now at the time of this video is uh I don't know, 105,000. It's very expensive. Well, expensive compared to what? Expensive compared to when it was 200 bucks. Expensive compar expensive to compared to where it could be in a year or five years from now. So they're chasing price. What smart money does is they chase liquidity. We understand that when liquidity when the money supply increases, asset prices go up as well. We want the leading indicator. So, we can see liquidity breaking out and about to rise. We know that asset prices will continue to rise on a three-month lag. Okay. Now, we also understand that the super bull signal is very rare. when we see liquidity break out, we see two-year rates starting to

17:37 drop, and where we see we're in the 50-year cycle, all three of those converging is extremely rare rare and it is extremely powerful. So, what winners do is they prepare. They don't chase the price. They look at the data and they prepare and they position. Now, if you want to know more about understanding where the price is going by, let's say, 2030, 2040, and 2050, I have a video for you. You might want to watch this video right here. And I hope to see you over there.