Trump’s UFC event descends into CHAOS

0:00 If you are looking for the peak of embarrassment, this right here is how Trump's big UFC event kicked off. Which is to say, Trump's big taxpayer funded birthday party is kicking off as exactly the kind of circus you'd expect it to be. And it's not just with Nitro Circus and these motorcycles. Here's the weigh-in. >> [cheering] >> Look at this. Look where we're at. Look at this [cheering] beautiful view. >> You want to act like a animal?

0:47 >> Like an emotional little animal. Like a female. Look at this. Look at this. So pretty. Looks so good on you. Yeah, it does slowly. >> I think you're fighting for this, right? >> So good. Okay. >> No, this is not the fight. >> It's mine, boy. >> Not the fighting for looks much better on me. >> And I don't know, maybe I'm being too precious about the capital complex being like hallowed ground for the trashiest event you could possibly imagine. But I think there's actually something else that bugs me. I wrestled for about a decade starting at age 11. I loved everything about the sport, but especially that there was no way to skirt responsibility. Like, you can't just hang out in the corner and take

1:34 credit for the rest of your team's actions. The bout is just you and the other guy. That's it. And you own that victory when you win. And that is a great feeling again because you own it entirely. And I mean, it's absolutely a team sport in the sense that your teammates push you to be better in practice every single day. And if you don't have that, you simply won't be successful. But when you're out on the mat, you are on the mat and you have to perform and there's no shortcuts. And that's good for somebody who wants to work hard. And I did work hard. I worked my ass off. I I did pretty well. I won some championships. I learned a lot about discipline. And I made some great memories with my guys. And other mixed martial arts are the same. It is just two of you on the mat, in the ring, in the octagon, whatever it may be. And again, there's no shortcuts. There's no

2:21 excuses. There's just hard work, discipline, technique, and heart. But you look at a guy like Trump, and this is somebody who has lied, cheated, and stolen his way through life. A guy who got rich off the backs of contractors who he refused to pay. A guy who slapped his name on products and brands that ultimately failed. A guy who has no lasting legacy other than his willingness to plow over people while enriching himself. And I just I see the dichotomy between this guy who has climbed over everybody else to take all the credit for himself and these fighters who could only get there if they worked for it. And of course, yet again, Trump will watch these people do all the hard work. And yet he will bask in the spotlight of an event paid for in blood and sweat and tears that don't

3:08 belong to him and taxpayer funds that don't belong to him. Everything he has is the result of the labor of others. but he'll never give anybody else an ounce of credit because his ego demands that the attention shines solely on him. And I think that's a pretty apt microcosm for how he's governed. Because while he swore on the campaign trail that he would focus on an America first agenda, since the moment he took office, it has been about him. About his new jet, his ballroom, his golden crusted oval office, his reflecting pool, his repaved rose garden, his triumphal arch, all for him. Meanwhile, you've got surging costs. Gas is almost at its highest point ever. Healthc care has been cut for tens of millions of Americans. Food assistance has been

3:53 gutted. Electricity prices are surging, but he hasn't done anything to fix it because he just doesn't care. And it's not like he can't. Like, remember this is Donald Trump we're talking about. When he wants something, he does it. He don't let anything stand in the way. Not the law, the courts, prosecutors, attorneys, judges, the constitution. He just makes it happen. But only when it benefits him. And making sure that Americans can afford groceries and healthcare and housing and food assistance. None of that impacts him. so it doesn't get done. And the rest of his party, which has the power as a co-equal branch of government to at least step in and work on behalf of their constituents, even if he won't, they have collectively decided that it's more important to help Trump than the rest of

4:39 America. The entire party exists to serve one person. Something to remember as you're deciding who to vote for come November. Just a quick note here to say that if you appreciate my work, which is and always will be 100% free, a small ask is if you could please pre-order my new book, The Day After, which explores how Democrats must finally wield power if they're fortunate enough to get it back. I'll also be on tour in DC, New York, and LA mid July. You can grab tickets to the tour, and you can pre-order the book at the same link, which I'll put on the screen and in the post description of this video. You can also find them at brianttylercoen.com/book. Again, I'll never pay wall a single piece of content, but this is the one time that I'll ask for some support for a book that I really think meets this moment. Thanks so much. You're watching the No Live podcast. Next up are my interviews with ranking member of the

5:25 House Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia, co-host of Pods Save America, Tommy Vtor, and head of data science at Vote Hub, Zachary Denini. No lie is brought to you by Ziotics. Now, you've heard me promote Zbiotics pre-alcohol before, and for good reason. It is a game-changing product that I use before a night out with drinks. Well, a few weeks back, I was able to use it again. I went to Pave America's John Loveit's wedding. I made pre-alcohol, my first drink of the night. I felt excellent the next day. I was literally on camera shooting content, completely normal. I do not think that would have been the case without pre-alcohol. So, what is pre-alcohol? Ziotics pre-alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. So, here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic

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6:56 me, I know. When I started this podcast, I wasn't even sure of what I was doing. Like, what if nobody listens? What if I can't offer something worth listening to? Now, I'm glad that I believed in myself and launched my podcast despite all of the fears and hesitations. But let's be clear, it also helps when you have a partner like Shopify on your side to help. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e-commerce in the United States. From my own website, brian tylercocken.com, to brands just getting started. So, get started with your own design studio. With hundreds of readytouse templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand style. Accelerate your efficiency. Whether you're looking to upload new products or trying to improve existing ones, Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions,

7:42 page headlines, and even enhance your product photography. Get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you. Easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling. And best yet, Shopify is your commerce expert with world-class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond. And what if people haven't heard about your brand? Shopify helps you find customers with easy to run email and social media campaigns. It's time to turn those whatifs into with Shopify today. Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/btc. Go to shopify.com/btc. That's shopify.com/btc. I'm joined now by the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia. Congressman, we have some new

8:29 news here as it relates to Epstein and JD Vance, the vice president, that hasn't uh been in the spotlight before. Can you explain what that news is? >> Yeah, I mean, look, this is pretty bombshell reporting. Um, the New York Times has obviously put out a pretty significant report. We also hear there's there's more to come about JD Vance actually now being centered in this Epstein scandal and cover up. Uh, we had no idea that Vance had really been involved in the past. has made some comments, but now we learned that JD Vance is basically hosting and leading meetings in the situation room about the Epstein investigation. Now, the situation room is used for national security for issues of war and peace for major issues around the country and JD Vance, Susie Wilds, uh Cash Patel, Todd

9:16 Blanch are having these meetings about Epstein in the actual situation room. And it's clear from this reporting that they're talking about ways of protecting Donald Trump. So it's very significant. It's the first time Vance is now at the center of this cover up directing, giving ideas, making suggestions like including really bizarre ones. And so we've said we've got to talk to JD Vance and the rest of the folks in that room. Why are they playing cover up for Donald Trump? >> In terms of getting JD Vance in front of the House Oversight Committee, what is the likelihood of that happening? and what action can and are you taking uh in in service of that? >> Well, we just made the formal request to get JD Vance, to get um Patel, uh Susie Wilds, some of the communication staff, folks that were in that room in front of

10:02 the committee to comr at the end of the day, it's Comr's decision. Now, look, he may not go along with this, but we can put the pressure on. When we've put pressure on, we've heard from folks, we forced people to come in, and certainly we win the majority. We're going to expect these people are in front of our committee actually answering these questions. Look, JD Vance made some wild wild accusations as well as provided some crazy ideas. He suggested that Tucker Carlson interview Galain Maxwell. They're talking about how they can maybe pardon what a pardon would mean for Gain Maxwell. How can we get Gain Maxwell to to say that she had nothing to do with Donald Trump or that Donald Trump was had nothing to do with Jeffrey Epstein? This is a cover up that we are reading about in real time. And now we know that JD Vance and Susie Wilds have been in on

10:49 it. So they have a lot to answer for and quite frankly they have a lot to answer for to the survivors. How can Republicans justify potentially having wielded contempt powers for Hillary Clinton to testify in front of the House Oversight Committee uh as it relates to the Epstein files, but not JD Vance who is on record perpetuating the cover up. I mean, he seems a lot more involved in this thing than Hillary Clinton ever did. And yet they were willing to use whatever tools they had at their disposal and whatever punishments and accountability methods they had at their disposal to make sure that she appeared. So how do you justify bringing in one but not the other? >> You don't I mean the reality is is that JD Vance has clearly now been a played a big role in this coverup and we just

11:34 didn't we just found out about it and the fact part of this is the fact that they're having these meetings in the situation room. Uh why are they there? uh they clearly viewed this as a massive security threat to who to to Trump uh to their administration. um they know that in that room uh it's very obviously there there is technology in that room uh that really en ensures that folks don't find out what they're talking about and so it's it's concerning that through the reporting for the New York Times they're giving us a snapshot but I want to know how many times did they meet in the situation room how many times with JD Vance involved the reporting talks about certain instances but there clearly if we're reading about some there has to be a lot more Right. And >> and so we we have I think JD Vans has a

12:20 lot to answer for and I hope he's asked by by the press and the mainstream media. What the hell is he doing? And why is he trying to play cover up for Donald Trump? What does actually JD Vance know? Does he know what's in the files? Why haven't the rest of the files been released? These are all important questions. If Democrats are able to take the majority in Congress and you become chairman of the oversight committee, uh, what will that mean in terms of you being able to wield your power to compel the testimony of someone like JD Vance given what given the questions we now have? >> Look, I think that JD Vance um, first of all, it's clearly and we already know that he's a liar and he he does whatever Donald Trump wants him to do. Uh, that's been clear throughout this whole administration. He refuses to ever stand up to Donald Trump. Uh, and I think what

13:05 we're learning here is that he's a much more central player in the Epstein cover up than we had ever thought before. And so we're gonna have to do everything we can to compel him to testify, to to push the media, get public opinion. And I'll say, look, I I was just looking at um some reports in polling that the Epstein investigation and this broader kind of Epstein um case is the single most bipartisan thing in the country. And it's where Donald Trump is actually the weakest. more people care, Republicans care about this and believe that Donald Trump is failing at this than any other topic, more than the economy, more than immigration, more than anything else. Democrats as well. And so is United the country? And so if JD Vance thinks he's just going to go walk around and we're going to allow him to tell lies and not answer questions, he's mistaken. Have

13:51 you gotten any sense from your Republican colleagues whether there is an I'm sure there's not an appetite to call JD Vansson to testify, but an openness, a willingness, do you think that those people could be pressured to call JD Vance to testify? >> I think there are going to be some Republicans, Tom Nassie, Nancy Mace, uh Lauren Boowbert that might um be supportive of some of that type of effort. Uh but I think that JD Vance the the bigger question in the Republican party broadly speaking is he had never been a part of this investigation before and there was no evidence linking him to any sort of the cover up. But now it's clear he is not only part of the cover up he's leading cover up meetings in the situation. We can't get more serious than that. And so he has a lot to answer

14:36 for and I going to encourage I've encouraged my my congressional colleagues over the last few days to stay on this. We got to hold JD Vance's feet to the fire here. He's the vice president of the United States, second in line of the presidency, and he's playing cover up for Donald Trump. It's got to end. >> You know, some of those colleagues that you had mentioned, Nancy Mace is in her last term in the House. Uh she obviously lost her primary for South Carolina governor. I believe came in fifth in that primary. Um uh you have Thomas Massie, also was ousted thanks to help from Donald Trump. And so, um, given the fact that these people are are kind of freed from the shackles of what is expected of you, if you want to remain a member in good standing of Donald Trump's Republican party, do you expect that they'll be a little bit more outspoken in terms of their support for

15:22 transparency on this issue? >> I mean, I do hope. I I I do expect that they will be. Obviously, we'll wait and see, but look at Marjorie Taylor Green. I mean, I think that she's a good example of someone that has kind of broken free from uh Donald Trump and, you know, very much has a strong political opinion of which I strongly disagree with, but overall, she's not in it anymore to please President Trump, which is what she did the entire time almost she was in Congress. And so, I hope that Nancy Mace, I hope that Thomas Massie in these months ahead continue to show some courage and push on the Epstein files. We need to get more answers. And we need now, why the hell is Susie Wild so obsessed also with the Epstein files and she's directing all sorts of things? We're hearing from Bonino, who of course was at the FBI,

16:08 uh, uh, saying some pretty crazy stuff. And so, again, there's just more more to look at, more to investigate. Another really critical part that was in the reporting was, you know, Pam Bondi liked to throw Todd Blanch under the bus a lot in in her deposition, saying that somehow he was completely in charge of everything. And obviously Todd Blanch within these rooms, but so was Pam Bondi. Pam Bondi attended these meetings sometimes by phone. And so this idea that Pam Bondi had no idea what was going on. She certainly never mentioned to us she was having meeting meetings in the situation room. And so I think it's very concerning >> especially because like you know this is where the the operations took place to take out bin Laden and and Solommani and Al Zawhiri and like and like to equate those missions with the well I guess

16:54 what is now a mission to protect Donald Trump from the Epstein files is pretty telling in terms of what this ad how important this administration views this entire cover up effort. Um, but you know, something that was also striking in terms of Donald Trump going after these people who dare speak out uh against him as it relates to Epstein is Donald Trump also decided to create a new website as part of white house.gov and that was what he's calling a media offenders list. There's a bunch of content creator. >> Thank you. Yes, it is uh it's something that I wear as a badge of honor. I'm I'm one of the names of those content creators who were included on that list. And so I just wanted to get your reaction to the fact that you had a Republican party that predicated so much of its identity on this idea that they

17:40 are staunch opponents of censorship and they're going to be these champions for free speech now publishing an enemies list of content creators like YouTubers and podcast hosts on whitehouse.gov. just your reaction to the fact that this is where their priorities are uh uh at the hands of a party that would beat its chest as uh as being anti-censorship. >> These people are just a total joke. I mean, they're they're a joke. They're they weaponize the government. Um it's it's it's crazy to be like both so incompetent and so crazy about attacking people at the same time. I mean, look, I think they have worked to destroy anyone that opposes them. It's part of their authoritarian playbook. they have gone after whether it's large um companies

18:27 like obviously CBS and large institutions to successful uh new media channels right like yourself other podcasters that are out in this space people I mean you you and others have these enormous audiences uh on in the digital space on YouTube so many other ways and I think they're intimidated by that the right we've allowed the right for so long to dominate the digital space to dominate YouTube to dominate so so the the podcasting space and it's just been in the last you know few years you look about what's happened in the last five years three years for us on on the progressive front we're actually making some headway now there's investments that are happening so of course Donald Trump is going to attack that he's going to try to bring folks

19:12 down and intimidate because you know you for as you know >> you have a a great operation there's also some very some smaller operations that intimidation can have an impact. People don't have the ability to to defend themselves often times or the resources uh to to fight Trump's Trump's Department of Justice. >> Yeah, completely agree. I mean, the whole point of this is to have a chilling effect. Um what do you think your Republican counterpart in the oversight committee, James Comr, or Jim Jordan who chaired the uh the subcommittee on the weaponization of government? What do you think that those Republicans would say if Joe Biden had created an enemies list and published it on the taxpayerf funed whitehouse.gov website? >> Insane. I mean, I can't believe that um they went after Joe Biden for, you know,

19:58 using an auto pen. Uh and that was the the their thing they were mad at or they were mad that he was told. Um I mean, Donald Trump is literally stealing everyone's money and giving it to himself and his family. They're going after journalists. They're attacking the courts. They're stealing uh money. They're they're cutting real estate deals. They're destroying the White House, building cage matches in front of it. I mean, it's it's beyond, you know, they've destroyed our relationships around the world. He is just the worst person to ever lead our country by far, and his administration is. And I I think we're all just waiting for the day where we can turn the page on Donald Trump. Well, look, I I know that I speak for a lot of people watching in saying first off, thank you for the work that you're doing and keeping these important issues

20:43 to hold Trump to account at the forefront. And uh and second of all, um you know, in terms of that work starting, hopefully just a few months from now, you do become the chairman of the House Oversight Committee and we can start digging into some of this stuff that I think the American people have very valid and legitimate questions about. first and foremost on the Epstein matter, but a whole raft of things that you just mentioned, whether it's the financial corruption, you know, these these deals that Trump is engaged with, these vanity projects that he is that he's doing right now, the fact that his kids are involved in all of these military endeavors, and the list goes on and on. So, again, you know, the work to to begin holding this administration, this overtly corrupt administration accountable, uh hopefully starts sooner rather than later. And I know that a lot of that is going to be in your jurisdiction. So, with that said, uh,

21:29 we'll leave it there. Congressman, I appreciate your time. >> Thank you, >> Tommy. It looks like Donald Trump just got hit with a brand new Epstein blow from somewhere he didn't expect. >> Let's see the clip. >> I want to watch. >> Their traitors, the ones that refuse to release Epstein files, want to cover up for pedophiles and rapists and all sorts of disgusting things in these files. Those are the traitors to the American people, and they should be ashamed of themselves. I I mean it this report basically says it was the president who didn't want anything released. Are you saying that that that applies to the president himself? >> I'm saying exactly that. He told me on the phone that his friends would get hurt and that's why he's against releasing the Epstein files. It's it's been shocking uh to people, many people

22:16 that voted for Donald Trump, many people that voted Republican that they would actually follow through to try to cover up the Epstein files. >> So, uh >> Ouch. >> Not too ambiguous there with Green's [laughter] >> You're a traitor. >> Yeah. >> I mean, what kind of an impact do you think that that's going to have here as Trump continues to try and basically quash any disscent as it relates to Epste? But you have people like Margie Taylor Green making sure that this issue doesn't die. >> I look I think that there was a bunch of folks in the MAGA movement who sincerely believed that Donald Trump would expose the Epstein files and expose the kind of client list, take down this cabal of elites and actually put people in jail. Um that might have been a little bit naive, right? We I think we all can agree with that. But there's

23:02 >> Wait, you think the guy who had been photographed a billion times best his best friend for 10 years? That might have been misleading. But like we all know that there was a group of people in the MAGA world like especially this the podcast universe who like were really really focused on this and they believe Marjorie Taylor Green is sincere and they're probably still listening to her and she'll keep the issue alive. Like Donald Trump this big article in the New York Times um about the desperate efforts last summer to spin and cover up the Epstein files um is like kind of bringing back this issue and it just shows that Trump cannot make this go away. It's just never ever going to go away. What about the fact that he tapped um Todd Blanch to be his permanent attorney general? I I think that this was obviously with Epste in mind because if there's anybody who's going to be willing to defend Trump like to the ends

23:49 of the earth, it's going to be his own former personal criminal defense attorney, somebody who's already shown to be willing to do whatever it takes as far as Epstein is concerned. The guy went to Florida, talked to Gla Maxwell, and immediately moved her over to a minimum security prison in Texas. We don't know. refuses to say it. >> Yeah. Now he claims it was a threat to her life. So that's why she had to go to a country club. >> Yeah. >> I guess. >> So do you think that um that Todd Blanch is going to be able to effectively bury this thing? I mean, so this New York Times report, it's an excerpt of the new Maggie Habman book that's about how Todd Blanch, who is currently nominated to be Trump's attorney general, was sitting in the situation room at meetings conspiring to cover up, suppress, um, otherwise just like kill all of these horrible allegations within the Epstein

24:35 files, including ones that Trump like had sex or sexual contact with one of Epstein's victims. Yeah. >> You know, it's like really awful stuff. So my hope is that uh Democrats if if Todd Blanch really has confirmation hearings, Democrats should hammer him on this. Like what were you doing in these meetings? How like whatever happened to the Department of Justice having some distance from political decision-making in the White House, right? Like this is totally inappropriate collusion. >> I wonder if there's going to be Republicans who are going to be willing to buck Trump and actually join in on this effort to get some transparency here because we've also seen what happens and I think this was by design. We've seen what happens to Republicans who aren't willing to tow the line and you know Thomas Massie is out of Congress. Uh John Cornin out of the Senate. Uh Bill Cassidy out of the

25:21 Senate. And so these and these are not like squishy uh squishy libs, right? Like these are these are people who have voted with Trump more than 90% of the time in some cases all the time. And yet whatever they did, whatever one thing they did that caught his eyeire uh was enough for him to like cut them off. And so, you know, when when when Todd Blanch shows up for these confirmation hearings and and is posed a tough question by a Republican, do they become persona non grata in the GOP, does that mean that their career in Congress or the Senate is effectively over? >> Yeah, I I don't know. I mean, hopefully some of them have a little bit of courage. I mean, interestingly, today alone, uh, it sounds like Republican efforts to get rid of Bill Py or his nomination to be the director of national intelligence finally worked because Trump announced he was naming someone else. Ultimately, there is a line. We just

26:08 have to uh help Republicans find the courage to touch it. >> I also I also presume that Billy is not is not a hill that Trump is really willing to die on. But the Epstein stuff is different because that directly implicates him. >> Yeah. Although what he was hoping to do with Bill Py is install him as director of national intelligence and then use that job to find all the information and authorities and >> Sure. But he can find some other hackies. He can find some hack who's easier to get con confirmed >> for sure. But like >> and do you do you think is it is it Jay Clayton who is >> Yeah. It's like the Southern District of New York. >> And and do you think that that person is going to be as as malleable as Bill Py would have been? >> I know nothing about Jay Clayton, but I know that Bill Py has literally zero qualification for the job. I mean, this guy is like overseeing Fanny and Freddy's working uh in the in the

26:54 mortgage world. Before that, he was going to conferences and encouraging people to pump and dump Best Buy stock. I'm sure you've seen the video of like him at this conference where someone's just whacking another guy in the face with a dildo. Drew, cut that in here. >> Here's the first ever man live dildo slap on the PP Live. Py, look at this thing. All right, come on, daddy. All right, fine. There you have it. the first dildo slap in history live. So, Bill, this says Bill Py >> All right. >> Thank you. >> And then if you notice on it's got a

27:40 stamp with a butterfly on it. >> I like it. Only the young. >> One ass cheeks. Yes, it it does say uh it does say only the young on the back here. Only the young December 14. >> That looks pretty badass. >> We have a mushroom stamp on the head of it and bed bath on one cheek and GME. Oh, but GME on the other. I got too excited there. [laughter] >> So, you know that like when it's someone who's like that what it's like a Cash Patel, right? Or a Bill PY who has like literally no business in the job only because you're doing Trump's bidding. Like that's when I get the most nervous. >> But that's the whole cabinet. >> Pete Hexath is not there because he is competent at running the military or any department. >> But Pete Hexath served in the military. You know what I mean? I guess if the bar is that low and Bill PY doesn't even

28:25 meet that low bar, then like then that is them missing the >> Tulsi Gabbard, right? Like she was served in the army for what for like 20 years. She was a member of Congress. She was on the intelligence committee. I don't think she was qualified for that job. I don't think she was the right person, right? But she wasn't like just like coming out of the you know owning a chain of like quiz nodes or something like [laughter] you know like Bill Py is you like I like we were doing oppo on him like digging for research for pod save the world and we found a podcast an interview he did on a podcast that specializes in HVAC issues. >> Oh you know that HVAC to Intel Intel community pipeline is strong. Yeah, they they build pipelines to connect your heating and your air conditioning >> to the nation's intelligence infrastructure. >> Yeah. Anyway, crazy.

29:10 >> Yeah. Well, you know, on on that point, it was funny um to see when the Knicks played game three to see like Howard Lutnik on the sidelines. And it it it is a bummer because, you know, >> that should be the ultimate a-olitical event and and something that New York desperately needs and has been really fun to watch. uh um the Knicks like really run run this entire series. Um, and it was great watching the entire I mean, you know, that that moment the whole world was waiting for that moment just as much as they were waiting for the actual game itself to see how badly Donald Trump was going to get booed, dude. And it was so awesome cuz they they clearly tried to set up the one shot of Donald Trump during the national anthem >> where you can't boo and New Yorkers like, "Wait, [laughter] wait, wait, wait, wait. This is New York. Hold my

29:56 beer. I'm going to boo the out of this guy." And did you see the cuts from Bryant Park and like all all these other places where they were just viewing it in the city? Yeah. People were going nuts. >> Yeah. Oh, it was great. >> Also, there were so many politicians at the game that night. Like Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief of staff was there. Yeah. >> Uh uh uh Bloomberg was there like two nights ago. >> Yeah. I think somebody uh one of the one of the guys like fell into him [laughter] like you you don't realize how frail these people are until you have like a 7 foot tall basketball player fall into their lap. >> That's what's crazy about watching an NBA game. It's like on TV, you know, look, they're like taking charges and taking jump shots, but like up close in person, these guys weigh like 280. Yeah. They're just killing each other. If they fail on a regular human being, let let alone like a frail old guy. >> There there is um I I I think I brought

30:42 this up to like a group of my friends the other day. >> Would you rather have to survive 10 seconds in an NFL game, okay, and you can make $10 million or just get a million dollars? >> Get a million. that I think that's the right answer. 10 seconds in an NFL game I think [laughter] would just >> Do you understand what getting hit by an NFL cornerback would do to you? Okay, now imagine it's an inside linebacker. Yeah. >> Now imagine it's, >> you know, Miles Garrett. >> Dead. >> Yeah. >> Dead. >> Look, man, that's why I asked the question. >> You know those like medieval You know those medieval tortures where like they pull you from every angle and like all your limbs come off? That would be me on the field just like >> spled out. >> Yeah. Is this good content? You'd like that, wouldn't you? >> This is why people come to your channel. >> Your disgusting tummy. Disgusting. This

31:30 is not that kind of a show. The night the nice part about this was uh watching knowing the fact that the only game the Knicks have lost now was the one that Donald Trump showed up. >> Yeah, he definitely jinxed them. I mean, they were on like a 13 game heater and the guy decided he had to go to the game. You fan experience. >> Second longest streak in NBA history. >> And then the next night they came back like the greatest comeback in NBA Finals history. Yeah. >> So, Donald Trump not there. >> Yeah. >> It is pretty awesome. Like this is where Trump is annoying. Like like because of the conservative bent of like the sports media in particular, if this had been Joe Biden, he would be getting absolutely killed for this. Like it would be like a national meme of like Biden, you know, the jinx or the loser. I feel like Trump's not getting the commensurate about a >> No, no. I I I agree with you, but I think that it's becoming less and less

32:17 um like in style in fashion to like invogue to to step to stand behind Trump, especially in the sports world, especially with the Epstein stuff bearing down. It's like there's a very easy retort to anybody, you know, in the bar stool world that continues to like advocate for Trump. And it's like, all right, but like guys like pretty deeply mixed up with pedophiles. So I >> remember like earlier on in the first term uh there were like NFL players doing the Trump dance in the end zone and stuff, right? like it was like a a Monraz St. Brown I think was the first one that did like a bunch of players were doing it like cool good players and it made me very mad and also like he was in the cultural zeitgeist like people were showing up to the inauguration and now like Millie Vanilla is cancelling on them [laughter] you know is >> although although what really hurts as a

33:02 lifelong Giants fan is like the one player that didn't get that memo is Jackson Dart and that sucks. >> Can't believe you're a quarterback from Old Miss is a Republican. >> [laughter] >> Well, look, you know, even the other Old Miss quarterbacks at least have Eli Manning has like enough uh enough sense not to align himself with the Republican party in New York of all places. >> Yeah, it was weird. It like turned into that weird fight on Twitter about it and whatnot. I don't know. Like my my view on this is I feel like like everyone just gets to like who they want to like and we can live and let live and move on and like scolding players into liking people or not has proven to be um ineffective from our side of the aisle. >> Do you know what I What? You're not not in not down with the uh the intolerant left? >> No, I don't think that worked well for us. >> Yeah. No, you're right. But I still hate it. >> I do. [laughter]

33:48 >> I still I still hate that. >> My owner is Bob Craft. >> It's fair. >> He's like best friends with Trump. >> He was courtside, too. >> The Nick the Knicks owner is I saw him. The Knicks owner is uh is the same deal. Like James sucks. >> He he is like been sparring publicly with Mayor Manni who tried to have this watch party um outside Madison Square Garden and uh and like like Dolan canceled it. So, >> James Dolan famously has like security officials in the arena spy on people and will like kick them out if they say stuff making fun of him. >> Yeah, I saw that. I saw that reporting the other day. >> Yeah, Pablo stuff, I think. >> Yeah, pretty wild stuff. Okay, well, um, with that said, for those who are watching right now, first of all, go Knicks. Boston sports team suck. And second of all, if you're not yet subscribed to Pave America's YouTube channel, I'm going to put a link right here on the screen and also in the post description of this video. completely

34:34 free to subscribe, but a great way to elevate voices like Tommy's uh and the other guys uh at Podsafe America um so that we can help build up this progressive media ecosystem. Tommy, anything to add? >> I love you. >> Thanks. All right, we'll leave it there. [laughter] I'm joined now by the head of data science at Votub, Zach Denini. Zack, thanks so much for joining me. I wanted to talk to you because a I'm a huge fan of the work that you and Vote Hub do and it's especially important right now because we're seeing a new round of um of election denialism happening, but it's happening starting in California, which seems to me to show that Trump doesn't have a lot of isn't isn't very discerning about how he deploys his election denial claims. But from the perspective of somebody who works in data science, can you speak about these claims of election denialism

35:19 that are happening in LA and California more broadly? >> Yeah. So, I think something that, you know, I want to start by saying is, uh, counting is truly very, very slow in California, right? Even compared to, you know, other West Coast states that count their mail and ballots late, uh, we're talking about only about half the vote being counted on election night. And those votes are counted in roughly chronological order and different people hold their ballots and return them earlier and later. It's different populations. And I think, you know, from my position, I try to, you know, understand that that is like not exactly intuitive to people who don't obsessively follow elections like me. Um, but it also, you know, is we try to communicate that because we know what those shifts are roughly going to look like to people. On that point, you know,

36:06 there have been a lot of Republicans who've come forward and said, "Well, that kind of a system breeds distrust." My push back to that is that the system doesn't breed distrust. The system is what it is. We allow a lot of different avenues for people to vote and for those votes to be counted. What breeds distrust is the people who breed distrust. is the people who come forward and say that, you know, when there is election day votes that are counted first and then mail and ballots which skew overwhelmingly uh uh Democratic, when those come in after and the vote total shifts from a redder electorate to a bluer electorate, we're inevitably going to see um you know, we're going to see Democrats do better and better as more votes are counted. I think that's what undermines trust in the elections. But from from your vantage, having

36:52 looked at both the California system and the rest of the country, can you give a sense of what you think when people say that a system like the one we have in California breeds distrust? >> Yeah. So, so I I do think in general it is, you know, it is just tough for people, you know, in in a lot of states, they wake up and they see someone's losing by one 1% or something on Wednesday morning and maybe they think, "Oh, this is close. They could come back." You know, in California that can be 10 or 12% and someone come back. So it it the system in California is, you know, it is a bigger number than what we're seeing everywhere else. But a falsehood that is just really frustrating I think that we've had to deal with in the last week is this idea that these late mail ballots always favor Democrats. Um I uh you know recently this week, you know, posted about, you know, an election that I was

37:38 in charge of covering in 2022 when it was a Republican candidate, David Schwer in Arizona who was losing by double digits with 70% of the vote counted in Arizona House. you uh district 1 in 2022 and he came back and won, right? You know, it goes both ways and and I think it's important, you know, for people to try to bring those facts to light so people aren't getting a warped picture of what happens >> in terms of the broader uh election coming up now as we look toward midterms. Can you give me your sense of where we stand as far as the Senate is concerned? Yeah. So, the Senate is uh an interesting situation because there are kind of two different sets of states. Uh we have Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia. Uh these are states that uh were were close. Uh maybe Trump won them

38:25 by a little in the case of Maine. Uh Harris won them. Uh Democrats kind of need to sweep these four. And then there are other states, uh Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska. all of these four key all these four states Trump won by double digits but Democrats need to win to about two of those as well to win control of the Senate. So um you know what this means is you know you have to hold serve in these races that Democrats should be winning in a blue environment and you have to win a couple races in in states that will be difficult to win even in a blue environment with good candidates. >> What does Vote Hub's analysis suggest would happen? You know, if the race were today, >> if the race were today, honestly, we think Republicans would probably hold control of the Senate. Right now, in our

39:10 in our polling average, we have Democrats ahead of Republicans in generic ballot polls by 5.4 points. Um, we actually expect this to shift towards Democrats considerably the next 6 months. Um, our projected uh November average is D plus 7.2. And why? There's just a historic pattern. We're in midterm elections. uh you know the public sentiment usually shifts towards the out party in the months leading up to the election after even you know considering that shift right now we give Republicans a 55% chance to win the Senate so so I mean roughly a toss-up but a very very narrow you know uh you know uh we Republicans very narrowly favored. Are there any unforced errors that are causing um a chance for

39:56 Republicans to be more successful than they should be as far as the Senate map is concerned? >> So I think um one issue for Democrats is uh Maine and Michigan. Uh the you know candidate quality in these states is is unclear. I I don't want to say that oh the Democrats are going to throw away these races because of poor candidate quality. There's no evidence to to make you think that will definitely happen. But uh it is important to you know consider you know Georgia and North Carolina you have these battle tested candidates John Oaf and Roy Cooper who we know are very very good at winning elections and strongly believe they can do so in such a blue year in their purple states. Uh Michigan and Maine you know I'm sure Democrats wish they had a Roy Cooper wish they had a John Oaf to

40:42 run in these states. Um but they don't right so there's it's just more of a question mark. Uh I think six years ago people would have said John Oaf was you know an you know inexperienced candidate without a you know track record of winning elections. Now we view him as real really strong. You know we could be saying the same thing about Graham Platner in 6 years or we could be saying in six years wow you know Graham Platner lost Maine in a blue midterm. What about the House now? If we go over to the to the um to the House as it stands in the aftermath of redistricting, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, Republicans were able to net another 12 seats this cycle as the result of redrawing maps. Does that put the Democrats ability um or likelihood to retake the House at risk? >> I think it's very important to know that Democrats are clearly favored to win the

41:27 House. If the election was held today, they'd be clearly favored to win the House. Uh and and again, we expect things just to shift more towards Democrats in the next six months. Um, you know, I think I I always tell people, you know, American elections are, you know, surprising things happen a lot, right? You know, an 80% chance of winning the House, um, you know, mean means that if you, you know, flip a coin a couple times and get heads right now, we think Republicans, uh, you know, could feasibly win the House, but that something would really have to change and it would be surprising and break historical precedent. >> What about in subsequent cycles? Um, what do you foresee as as the prospect of Democrats redrawing maps and some of these weapons that haven't yet been deployed? I'm talking about the ongoing

42:13 redraw um in New York, which of course took a con will take a constitutional amendment. Um, I presume that we'll see another effort in Virginia. that one will likely be successful because the the technicalities that precluded it from working in 2026 likely won't present themselves in 2028. Um there is of course the ability for California to redraw again. You know there are I believe seven seats that that Republicans will still hold in in this state. So, um, the map may very well look different, especially in the aftermath of Democrats seeing the extent to which Republicans were willing to engage in this process in Texas, Florida Ohio Missouri Tennessee Alabama, Mississippi. I mean, like North

43:00 Carolina, possibly South Carolina the next election cycle. So, um, what what can that look like? And is and I guess the broader question is like is there a world where Democrats can actually come out on top if they're willing to fight fire with fire and be aggressive here as aggressive as Republicans have been? >> Yeah. So, first of all, I think um we have seen that Democrats are willing to fight fire with fire. In the uh 2022 redistricting cycle, I like to remind people in 2022 and 2024, the House had a pro-democratic bias, right? you know, Democrats uh were the House had a pro-Republican bias throughout the 2010s. The Democrats, you know, BA in Illinois, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, uh basically said, you know, we're done with this. And they actually kind of out uh redistricted Republicans in 2022 and

43:46 2024. 2026 cycle, as you know, I'm sure everyone listening to this knows, was a big win for Republicans. Um probably about seven to eight seats in a neutral environment. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um, but now Republicans are now kind of tapped out in a lot of their states. Uh, another one I'll throw out there you didn't mention is Colorado. That's a 44 map right now. It's very easy to draw an ADO map for Democrats in Colorado. Um, so so Republicans are are now like kind of, you know, maximally uh, gerrymandered in a lot of their states. They of course always, you know, have a few more districts they can knock off and, you know, South Carolina even go back to Alabama, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska. Uh but Democrats now have a lot more outstanding in Illinois, New York, Washington, Colorado. Um so we'll

44:33 we'll see how that develops. Um it's it's uh made it so that Democrats do need quite a blue environment to win the US House in 2026, but the data right now points to that blue environment happening. Do I I mean I know this isn't really within your jurisdiction as a data scientist, but do you presume based on what you know about these Democrats that they there's a difference between being able to do it, having the opportunity to do it, and them actually doing it? And the latter part of that is is I think what Democrats as as institutionalists have had more trouble bringing themselves to do. I mean, we even heard from JB Pritsker who says, you know, he's told me um in our interviews about this very topic. He goes, "I'm on team fight." But then decided to hinge any action in Illinois

45:22 on on whatever Indiana did. So, not really as aggressive as as I think um as I think he had suggested previously. >> So, just judging from what you know about the Democrats who are in charge here, do you think that they'd actually be willing to deploy these tools even though they have the opportunity to use them? >> Yeah, I I will note that Illinois already has, you know, what I would consider a pretty heinous gerrymander, right? both the eye tests when you look at the map. My home district is a noodle that stretches from Champagne to St. Louis. Um, and then it would be, you know, basically turning it into a like completely maximal super ugly bacon mander. Um, it would probably actually be the lowest compactness gerrymander if Illinois went there, worse even than anything Republicans have drawn yet. Um, that being said, you of course have

46:07 states like uh New York and Colorado who that are that are blue states and if anything maybe even have slightly Republican leaning maps right now. Um, I I I think I I think odds are definitely in the favor of Democrats redrawing in 2028. I think the Democratic outrage surrounding the Voting Rights Act being uh gutted by by Scotas this spring was was pretty big. And um you know uh when we're talking about ugly maps, right, I think like what happened in Tennessee really went past a line honestly that had been held uh for the most part by by both sides with the with the Memphis draw out is is really really really um you know extreme. Uh so >> last question here. Um this is a little bit farther out into the future, but um

46:55 the prospect of a reallocation of electoral votes and the impact that that that's going to have post 2030 as it stands right now, even Democrats winning like the blue wall states um in in the Midwest uh wouldn't be enough to get them over the finish line. So, how do you foresee that shaking out um given the fact that California will likely lose electoral votes? a lot of these blue states in in the northeast for example um and and and on the west coast and those are going to be reallocated towards states in in the southeast and the sunb belt. So yeah, something I really try to communicate with people is there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding reallocation. So what this means is you know midway through the decade we have these estimates about how

47:42 we think people are moving across the country uh from something called the American Community Survey, the ACS. Um but uh the US census, the full US census is only once every 10 years. Based on these mid decade estimates, it looks like reallocation is going to be quite bad for Democrats. Um but there's uncertainty around that, right? If this is quite bad, it could be anywhere from like neutral for Democrats to like a total disaster. We're winning all three blue wall states maybe and Arizona isn't even enough. So we don't quite know where it will end up. Um but directionally, you know, a a best-case scenario for Democrats at this point is basically no change. A worst case scenario is is having to win, you know, two two or maybe even three more states.

48:28 If you think about, you know, Nevada being pretty small uh in 2032. >> Yeah. I mean, although there is a world where I mean, like this is this is like me doing the thing that I think Democrats have been doing for the last 20 years where it's like maybe Texas is is poised to flip, but we've been saying maybe Texas is poised to flip forever. But but we'll see. I mean I I you know uh we have a strong candidate in James Telerico and perhaps um if he's able to win um and there's such disgust over what the MAGA agenda has turned into in Texas and uh voters there get a sense of like okay we stuck our necks out and voted for this Democrat for the first time and he's performing well in the Senate maybe that'll allow them to be more open to other Democrats in the future. So look time will time will tell

49:15 on that stuff. Zachary, for those who are watching and listening right now, where can they see and hear more from you? >> Uh, you can follow VHub or my name, Zachary Denini on X. You can go to our website at vhub.com. We do a lot of coverage on election nights. We have a uh midterms forecast we work very hard on. Uh, we do a lot of scraping of precinct data so you can see the most detailed maps as they update in real time on election night. >> Awesome. Well, I appreciate the work that you do and uh you taking the time today. >> Thank you very much for having me on. To listen to the audio version of this episode, click the link right here on the screen to subscribe. And of course, to see more video content, that subscribe button's on the screen as well. [music]