US chooses Pakistan over India: Why the dramatic shift?

0:00 [Music] While Pakistan US relations forge ahead, is India being thrown under the proverbial bus? In a reversal of President Trump's first term, Pakistan has become the South Asian ally of choice. But what does Islamabad gain and how should India and China respond? I'm Andrea Sanki and today's newsmaker is Pakistan. [Music] Well, foreign relations under the current US administration are unpredictable at best. Given Pakistan's trade volumes with the United States are

0:46 120th of India's, many assumed a strong Washington Delhi relationship would take priority. But instead, it's Islamabad that's curried US favor. And some are questioning if that compromises Pakistan's relationship with Beijing and further agitates already tense Delhi Islamabad ties. So what rewards will Pakistan really reap for leaning into its Washington friendship? Here's a look now at how the relationship has changed since the Trump administration took office. A dramatic shift in US Pakistan relations. 7 years ago, President Donald Trump accused Islamabad of giving Washington nothing but lies and deceit, calling it a safe haven for terrorists. Later, Joe Biden labeled Pakistan one of

1:33 the most dangerous nations in the world. But now, in Trump's second term, the two countries are closer than ever. In May, tensions in the region flared when nuclear armed neighbors Pakistan and India fought a 4-day war following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir. As the tit fortat attacks escalated, President Trump, according to Pakistan, stepped in to help broker a ceasefire. I said, "Come on, we're going to do a lot of trade with you guys. Let's stop it. Let's stop it. If you stop it, we'll do a trade. If you don't stop it, we're not going to do any trade." Just a month later, Pakistan's army chief Azimun visited Washington. In an unprecedented move, Trump hosted the powerful military

2:19 leader for lunch at the White House, discussing trade, economic growth, and regional tensions. I want to thank him for not going into the war, just you know, ending the war. Last week, Munir returned to the US to meet with senior military officials, including the incoming US Middle East commander Brad Cooper. Washington and Islamabad also struck a deal at the end of July which includes development of Pakistan's massive oil reserves. And in another gain on the economic front, Zack Witkov, the son of Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkov, was in Pakistan in April signing agreements with the country's crypto council to promote and develop the industry. Witito is co-founder of World Liberty Financial, a

3:05 company 60% owned by the Trump family. The delegation also met with the army chief and the prime minister. You guys are sitting on trillions of dollars of rare earth minerals right now. Currently, it's an illquid asset. By tokenizing them, you can actually make it a liquid market and you can bring enormous wealth to the youth of this country. While Pakistan courts the US, its main rival India has been sidelined. New Delhi hasn't escaped Trump's 25% tariffs and now Washington is threatening to raise that to 50% as punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil. The Trump administration uh has taken the transactional approach to an extreme with India. uh not looking

3:52 at trying to build a uh relationship which is we've been working on for 30 years. Meanwhile, Pakistan's largest trade partner is China, Washington's main rival. Over the past 5 years, Beijing has supplied over 80% of Islamabad's arms imports. It has also invested tens of billions of dollars and helped Pakistan secure IMF loans. And the Chinese side is confident this partnership will continue. China and Pakistan are ironclad friends and all weather strategic partners. I believe China Pakistan relations will not be affected by third parties. President Trump's unpredictable foreign policy has pushed China and India to

4:38 rebuild their strained ties. So the trade wars, conflicts, and shifting alliances are shaking up the balance of power in Asia. So just how reliable is this relationship between the US and Pakistan? And how much does it potentially irritate leaders in India and China? Joining me now to debate that and more are from Islam Abad, executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies, Mtaz Ghoul. from Washington, professor of international affairs and political science at American University's School of International Service, William Lawrence. And also from Pakistan's capital, former Lieutenant General and former Pakistani Federal Minister for National Security, Naim Khalibi. Thank you all so much for being with me.

5:24 Immaz, I'll start with you and ask a Pakistani how good you feel about where the US and Pakistan stand now. And please let me quote one of your former ambassadors to the United States speaking to the Washington Post. She actually said flattery is not a strategy. It is not long-term. Does she have a point? I mean she hit the nail on the head uh because of the transactional nature that uh we have seen in the USPakistan relationship. We have had the best of enoys in the 90s in the 2000s but the relationship always remained on the edge and right now why things have turned around for Pakistan which I'm very

6:11 pleased about as a Pakistani is because of the phenomena Donald Trump he seems to somehow dislike India or maybe the CIA the military establishment in the US has whispered something into the ears of Donald Trump which basically has turned India something displeasing for the United States and that's why he has been basically publicly uh throwing slurs at the Indian leadership. So as a Pakistani we are happy but uh as the ambassador put it it's flattery and it's very transactional and I think the world particularly India and the European countries would simply wait out Donald Trump's uh term

6:57 for another two years or so general do you believe strengthening ties the way we've seen so far is best strategically for Pakistan or do you share some of the fear that we've heard that the US you know could effectively be using Pakistan as leverage to get back at India or get what it wants from India. You know these fears and apprehensions and this transactional nature of relationship that is all true. I mean we all have that but I would like to compare two scenarios. One is not talking the other is talking uh having a relationship having a good relationship and not having a very good relationship. So whether it is intermittent or it is

7:43 transactional or it is fearful or not fearful as far as far as we have a relationship and we are talking I I think in my own assessment that it is much better than not talking or not having a good relationship as long as we are aware that it should not be at the cost of any other closer relationship that we might be having with other countries. That is my view i.e. China. Uh true and and maybe right China and and India. Uh I mean as far as India is concerned for example personally I would be happy that if uh America has good relations with us and also with India because then we are in a better position to probably talk to India resolve our issues rather

8:28 than you know having America on the Indian side and not talking to us or not having good relations with us. So in my own opinion having relations with any country even if it is an enemy country and America is not an enemy country uh it is good because then you are talking then you are communicating to each other uh so that way I would say this is a positive thing. Okay. So, William, we're hearing mostly a net positive, but I'm going to look at the analysis of one think tank. You might not be a fan necessarily of the American Enterprise Institute, but it did say that Trump is effectively taking bribes to change positions on India via the World Liberty Financial Deal with Pakistan's National Crypto Council. Is that what's at play

9:16 here? I think it's part of it. Um the transactional nature, which your other guests got exactly right, includes corrupt transactions. Um and uh while the bulk of that corruption, excuse me, comes from the Middle East, uh and the uh I think David Kurpatre in the New Yorker counted about um $3.5 billion the Trump administration has made through cryptocurrency and other mechanisms since the beginning of the Trump administration six months ago. That's all new money. Um the uh u I don't think that uh you know Pakistani um you know related uh um uh uh money-making schemes is the only or the even the largest factor here despite the corruption and

10:02 the unethical um aspects of it. I think there are many other things going on here. Uh and um I also think that neither the Trump administration nor Washington in general u views the Pakistani India um uh America triangle as a zero sum between India and Pakistan the way we often hear that the Indians view it and maybe to a lesser degree the Pakistanis view it rather it's two bilateral relationships one has been a roller coaster for many decades the USPakistani relationship and it's on an upswing now like it was on an upswing in 2014 14 and 2019 and then the US India relationship is on a downswing. Uh and there are many reasons for that but the biggest reason is um the fact that Trump thinks he can get his Russia Ukraine

10:49 deal by pressuring India through tariffs. Uh and Trump is taking credit for the IndiaPakistan um you know for for ending the India Pakistan war which Pakistan said was true and India took offense to it and um and probably for good reason. But uh all of that u personalization of foreign policy that Trump does has led to a souring of the US India relationship and has um uh accentuated and and strengthen a lot of these trends that we're talking about today. There's so much to it but I mean very quickly William would you where do you see the US actual role in the peace brokering if we can call it that between India and Pakistan in in their last skirmish or war however you describe it. Would you give the US as much credit as Pakistan is?

11:36 Um, not necessarily. And flattery is flattery. I think the US played a role which the Trump administration hugely embellished and the Pakistani uh government uh um confirmed uh and then the Indians uh uh uh uh were posed to how those characterizations were going on that the Pakistanis weren't exaggerating the way Trump was exaggerating it. Uh and so and this is true in the Azerbaian uh Armenia thing, the Congo Rwanda uh thing. Even there was a Serbia conflict that Trump took credit for ending that he had no role in. So there's been about six wars that Trump claims to have ended that he didn't really end. Yeah. Okay. That that that that that he hasn't really fully ended and and very much a grandizes his own role. But you

12:23 know as as the largest power in the world if the US even does a little bit um a little bit like we were talking about how talking is better than not talking you know sometimes when the US talks it helps um in these in these peacemaking situations. Okay MS let me come back to you because there are other complaints I've been hearing out of Pakistan that the US has really been reinforcing the power of Pakistan's military in general. I'll let you comment on this as well, but MTS, let me get your opinion first. That the United States is empowering the influence of Pakistan's military in its politics and that is a dynamic that many Pakistanis were desperate to change. Do you see that happening? I think Donald Trump himself had

13:09 promised to end that dynamic by saying that not only in the United States but also elsewhere he would basically go after the security establishments to reestablish uh the rule of law. uh and this is uh what frustrated a lot of uh Pakistanis who had hoped that perhaps with this uh things would change but uh the very fact that uh Pakistan's prime minister has been has not met Donald Trump once he has been here while the army chief was quoted twice in the white house and one for an exclusive lunch that essentially signals the empowerment government the American readiness to empower and

13:56 appropriate more importance to the Pakistanis Pakistan's military and I I would say that this has been part of the American CIA and the military establishment's agenda to keep very close to Pakistan's military establishment and probably it it also manipulated uh the events in such a way that uh Donald Trump had no hesitation in inviting Pakistan's army chief uh to for an exclusive lunch whereas the prime minister was sitting watching helplessly on television that his army chief was meeting with the president of the strongest superpower of the world.

14:43 General Odi, I saw you nod your head there. Is that to say you agree? No actually the first thing which I want to clarify that I'm not in favor of army interfering in the politics at all and this is not I'm saying after retirement those who know me even during my service I was against that although I will not be able to prove it uh but what what I think is that whenever any country deals with another country they always see that who is actually calling the shot because they want they need business they want things to move ahead uh so I think uh Donald Trump knew it very well that whether right or wrong uh that who is calling the shots and uh with whom he should meet so that the agenda can be

15:28 you know moved forward and that that is basically the reason that he is whatever happened the meetings and all that that brother was also referring to. Uh so in my opinion it is not uh that he is trying to empower the military to carry on with whatever they are doing. Uh although meeting with the army chief mean that legitimizing uh their presence. Uh but uh he is aware that if if he meets the political heads it will not make any headway. So probably that in my opinion is the main reason that why he's meeting the man who who really matters in Pakistan today. Okay. There's there's really so much to

16:14 look at in more detail here. I wish we had a lot more time but uh William Lawrence let me ask you I I have to move on to another angle here because of course relationships from both India and China I'm sorry India China Pakistan China are at play here and there were plenty of Americans who were a bit worried about where this relationship with Pakistan was going because they they trust China a lot less. They see that as the one cause for concern in Asia and that India was actually the best bull work against China and to sacrifice a relationship a stronger relationship with India uh actually gives China more power somehow in this

16:59 dynamic. Do do you see that there? And should the US be be worried about how China position positions itself in this new relationship between Pakistan and Washington? Um I think the India part of what you're talking about I ascribe to you much more than the Pakistan part of what you were talking about. And I think the the Pakistan part of what you were talking about, there's a long history there of Pakistan very nimly uh navigating between its strong relationship with China and being a conduit going back to the Nixon administration of US dialogue with China. uh and and I don't think you know Pakistan being close to China really concerns the United States given that history and given the way uh Pakistan so so um aly navigates the

17:45 complexity of all those relationships. However, um I think the push of the United States of India away and into the China camp as evidenced by the um the recent Chinese visits to um uh to India and all of the new um activity being proposed uh does concern the United States should concern the United States uh and because India had been featuring so um uh uh largely in the thoughts of the last four or five American presidents as part of this sort of Indoacific Pacific theater in which India is helping everywhere including in the South China Sea um is of concern. I mean obviously the US should work out its problems primarily with China directly. Um the two countries trade

18:31 more than any countries in the world and need to get smarter about their politics. Uh even though China does sort of push in its own near abroad to use that phrase we use for Russia more you know in ways that are concerning for the United States. you know, economically uh all of these countries should be thriving uh in in their relations with each other and Pakistan's turn towards more of a focus on international economics and international geopolitics under its new leadership um is is all a good thing. So again um I think the main dynamic here is less a Pakistan American one and more of a failing USI India dynamic which then raises all that's actually the one I'm talking about because th those Americans who who trust China less as I was trying to explain um they believe that India is

19:17 key to preventing China's domination in Asia. Yeah. And that the US is working against its own interests by marginalizing India here. Yeah, they're correct. Okay. You do feel that way. There's there's that risk. Yeah. Absolutely. And you know, China again there's there's there's a lot of different theaters here and questions. You know, there's the Taiwan question where India plays less of a role. There's the South China Sea question where India plays a larger role. Um but but any um you know rap rush between India and China that just helps India and China doesn't affect the US is okay. But if they're not fighting on their border, that's a good thing. But any rapper in Indian China which weakens uh the US position obviously is bad for the

20:02 United States and the way the US does best uh like any country is to have great relations with everybody you know with with Pakistan that can help with China with India you know as a bull work against China in certain respects uh with China itself and um uh the the type of diplomacy that we're having right now out of the United States is not very thoughtful uh not very engaged in a lot of these issues very short termist getting back to your first question today. Uh and uh and all of that um uh is going to create future problems if if I'm allowed to go ahead General. Yes, I think that is true that uh America wanted India to be a bullwalk against China. But then they saw many things. One, you know, the skirmish between China and India that's exposed, you know, side military side of

20:49 India. Then whatever went in the four days war between Pakistan and India. So pro probably their confidence in India's ability to stand as a bullwalk against China that got diluted and also then once they realize that India is not India is quite busy in in bricks and you know bricks is also looking for an alternative currency and uh India was importing a lot of things from Russia although arms they were importing for a very long time so I don't think that would the reason even oil they were importing for the last two years in my opinion uh these two things India's activity in bricks and India's inability to stand militarily either against China or Pakistan that probably they have the the confidence has gone thin uh between

21:36 America and India this is one of the reasons I think okay MTS I see you nodding in agreement I I I wanted to speak a little bit further though when we talk about the the kind of special interests now at play in the Pakistan US relationship uh we talked about the cryptocurrency issue and there's also this issue of of mining in Pakistan and the US seems very eager to get hold of many of Pakistan's mineral reserves, but we're also hearing that they're incredibly difficult to develop and that the US might not have much of a chance of profiting from what's on on sale from Pakistan because they're just very hard to to access. and therefore Pakistan is overestimating the economic depth of the relationship that it can really have with the US at its

22:23 own expense. Yeah. First a very quick note on uh on China. I think uh India has been forced or Donald Trump has forced India to gravitate towards China and evident from a statement two days ago after meeting between foreign ministers J Shankar and Wangi in which India has very categorically said Taiwan is part of China and that India is ready to cooperate with China as much as possible. So this is a repositioning of India and they also have decided agreed to freeze their border disputes. So this I think augers well for the region as a whole. As far as the oil exploration minerals uh I think these are uh they these were offered I think by Pakistan

23:11 as I wouldn't say fluttery but as incentive to a president who is more a businessman than a conventional politician. uh crypto also I think there's a lot of fuss a lot of criticism about this within Pakistan uh a country whose foreign exchange reserves largely comprise borrowed money so a lot of people are asking question whether the US would be able to invest a couple of billion dollars in helping Pakistan creating a crypto crypto reservoir of assets and then to build on it. So um whether P the US or the US companies are actually at all able to extract minerals rare earth minerals up in south southwestern Pakistan it's a big

23:57 question because it would take six to seven years till we start extracting that and so far we don't have the real minute details of those deals that have been apparent reportedly signed you know which which span 40 years and in 40 years $2 billion worth of extraction every year and what what actually Pakistan gets out of it we don't know right entails just a minute and a half left so I'll stick with you very quickly another angle here that Pakistan the government at present had been quite nervous when Trump came to office that he would actually push for the release of Imran Khan and in seeing that he hasn't done that was that considered another win for the Pakistani government internally

24:43 this certainly They created gave legitimacy or lent legitimacy to the present government against which there is still a Pakistan democracy act pending before the Congress signed by both Republicans and Democrats. But it seems that geopolitics uh I I mean the United States versus China containment policy has trumped everybody every other consideration as far as the Trump administration is concerned. Okay, MTS, we're actually going to have to allow that to be the final word uh for this edition of the newsmakers. I'd really like to thank all three of you so much uh for being with us uh on this incredibly insightful conversation and like to thank our viewers as always for

25:29 joining us and remember you can follow us on social media and do be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel. I'm Andrea Sanki. We'll see you next time. Heat. Heat. [Music]