Welcher Rohstoff performed 2025 am besten? (Interview Alexander Stahel)

0:00 Welcome to a new edition here on the second channel with Mark Friedrich. Today with a very special guest. He came to us especially from our beautiful neighboring country, Switzerland. Alexander Stahl. Hello Sascha, nice to have you here today. Hello Florian. Ah, I can already hear the beautiful Swiss dialect. Yes, Alexander, you have had an eventful career, I would say, especially in the financial world. I think you 've done everything there is to do in the banking and financial world. You have worked in private equity, you have worked in investment banking, and I believe you have been self-employed for over 10 years now with Burgraben AG, an asset manager. You have invested in more or less all sectors. I believe you are a generalist, but you are also a macro investor, which is why we like to exchange ideas. And especially if you are still a

0:46 generalist, you now also have a strong focus on raw materials. I would also say that you are probably one of the top five contacts for gas and oil in the German-speaking region, perhaps even in Europe, but you are of course also very knowledgeable about precious and base metals. And also interesting, you were in the Swiss Army or still are as an officer in a tank company. So, you also have very good geopolitical and military knowledge, which is of course very exciting in these times . But for everyone who doesn't know you yet, I 've thought of a few rapid fire questions so that people can get to know you a little bit. What does Sascha think about the world? How does he invest? Um, let's see what happens. It's always best, I know it's always difficult in Swiss, but to

1:31 answer in one sentence rather than long monologues. You can buy three assets for the next 10 years . You have to hold on for the next 10 years, you're going into retirement today, you have to invest your money in three assets. Which three do you want? physical gold, um the best gold miner, so miner and cash and Switzerland and cash the man still believes in the Swiss France. I said Swiss banks. You, you Euro, you probably wouldn't choose. Uh, no. What do you think the price of gold will be at the end of the decade if you look into the crystal ball in Zurich? No announcement, but if I were to guess, I'd say

2:18 over 5,000. I believe that, I can subscribe to that. You probably wanted to say a higher number, but you haven't dared to yet. Bitcoin or gold? Gold. Aside from the gold, I think you've already heard that. You are a big gold fan. Um, which commodity do you think will perform best over the next five years, let's just say into the 2030s, alongside gold or precious metals? Still gold we can come back to it. I'm not allowed to say anything, just briefly. That means you generally assume that we will see rising oil prices over the next few years. So, can you really imagine oil prices going beyond $150 over the next five years, or do you think we'll actually move somewhere between $

3:03 50 and $100 or sideways? Sideways movement? I would say that in the next 18 months you could even go down. Another difficult phase for oil. What are your current thoughts on the American stock market regarding the S&P 500 and Nestech? But price to perfection doesn’t mean there’s still room for improvement. We are basically in stockflation with an outlook for two or three quarters, which will not necessarily bring a turnaround, but will depend crucially on the jobs report in the next few months . Unemployment in America, stock market

3:50 goes down. Do you think there will be another weapons depot in Ukraine this year? Trump is more in the game than ever before, and everyone involved has a real chance. I have serious doubts as to whether that is the end of the story . If you have a tank officer in the interview here, that does n't happen very often. Which country or company in the world builds the best tanks? Chus Maf in Germany. They have a slightly different name today because they have merged with the French . Unfortunately, it's a private company; Reinmetall makes the pipes and parts of the tower. But in general, everything that drives is German,

4:38 Made in Germany, which means it's very good in at least one area. In another area, I think you are a little more skeptical. In one sentence, German energy policy is spiritual experience. We can probably drive there just fine , but we're going in the wrong direction. Um and the best thing about Switzerland is, if you had to choose one thing , I value democracy. direct democracy. I see it exactly the same way. Thanks for these, um, short answers. Now we want to go a little more in depth and start to devote ourselves to a macro outlook, before we talk a little more in detail about the stock markets and, above all, the commodity markets . You've just mentioned it, you've recently been very active on X, where you're also very active, and I can only recommend that everyone

5:24 follow you. Let's also display your account here, um, the Burgraben account. uh you always post a lot of good inside information, both on the commodity markets and on macroeconomics. And you already mentioned that the latest labor market data, especially the last labor market report, was revised downwards very significantly, and with it the last few months. And if you look at the outlook now , the current expectations are 90% interest rate cuts in September from the US Federal Reserve. You just said that we may have a few more quarters if the labor market cooperates, but is it still cooperating? um, we could actually already be in a recession and we are just seeing the last hurrah and maybe it will all be over in four to eight weeks. Well, I have the feeling that we're in a similar situation when you look at other

6:09 data, not just the labor market data , the PII manufacturing data, but also the service industry is weakening everywhere. If it weren't for the AI power behind it, you would probably see it quite clearly . But there is something behind it and so it is perhaps a situation where the recession is still tight for three quarters, but as I said, the labor market will dictate everything in the end and the labor market report that you mentioned, which came out at the end of July, which then looks back, because these are, yes, you have to perhaps briefly tell your listeners , a labor market report, which should come out as soon as possible. But in the end it's a

6:56 sample survey in America of, I think, around 220,000 companies that are questioned and 160,000 or less, I'm not entirely sure, but from that many households and based on the answers they try to say whether there is a heiring or not. So it's a bit of fortune-telling. If reading the tea leaves is often based on very thin data, it then makes a strong statement. The crazy thing about the whole story is, let's say, very, um, well, in 205 25 with AI and all the

7:42 software that's out there, it's, let's say, medieval how it's going, but it is what it is, the process and on that basis the fat builds up its, um, um, its interest and that in turn goes through the whole world because it influences everything that they bet. So from that point of view, it's a crazy story and how it works is that they go out. Then maybe they only got 40,000 responses from the 160,000 companies that were surveyed, and they were still mistaken. Then they go out and say, "No, May is actually good. June too, by the way, and they say 220,000 new people were hired each month. And now they come out and say, no, the first revision,

8:29 looking back at May, will correct it 90% downwards. And then June, by the way, we'll do that right away, too. What they can say is that now in July, when they say 72,000 will be hired, if I remember correctly, you can almost assume that it will probably be negative. So, in other words, the labor market was abysmal. Two thoughts on that. First, you would then say that Trump is right when he points out that these data are actually extremely, almost meaningless or worthless in terms of quality. And second, if Trump now appoints a person here at the statistics office at his whim

9:15 , we can't assume that the next labor market report will definitely be significantly more positive. On the other hand, he wants lower interest rates, so says it's rather difficult. Well, Trump is always very contradictory, but generally he wants low interest rates now, or he wants them down. uh, that's what he communicated, preferably to 1%, and uh, with the poor labor market, he'll get that from the fat. That's basically politics, because the fat is there to manage inflation, so no unemployment. He actually wants to fully implement it. That's the dual mandate FCK. And uh, it could be that it then becomes political. But first,

10:02 back to your original question. Yes, was Trump justified? Absolutely, and in my opinion, the answer is yes. But I don't think it was political. I think it's just the process that is so old-fashioned that these mistakes happen. Although I have to say, I wouldn't completely rule out that politics was involved. But now in the last three months, it does n't really make sense to have politics. It makes sense to have politics around elections. So, I think this is more about the process itself and the The incompetence of the co-opting, um, and really the process is the main culprit and it

10:47 simply has to be changed, but if he mandates a new one with the order to redo this entire process , then things can get better at some point . But in the short term, the process will remain as it is. It's not so easy to change; it's a complex process. It 's reassuring to hear that fax machines are still used not only in German offices, but sometimes even in the US. What I'm just wondering is, crazier there, yes, something high-tech, I think, but when it comes to the launch , it's the most old-fashioned of all. One hundred percent, I think El Musk was partly on the right track. But if we think about it again for a moment , interest rate cuts, um, especially due to weak economic data, have historically usually not been a good signal for the stock market, but

11:33 actually always a harbinger that larger corrections are imminent. And now Trump is a bit torn, because we have another one next year. Elections in the US, and I don't think it would necessarily play into the current government's hands if we had a major setback on the stock market by then. Don't you think they'll try everything until then to somehow hold things together, so that they can survive this election, achieve good results there again, and only possibly pull the plug afterwards ? Yes, I don't know if anyone wants to pull the plug, but they will certainly, as you say, try everything to hold things together, and the best way to do that is with a lower yield curve. If the word-fee rate is at 6.8%, then houses simply won't be bought, and that's already a pretty big pie in the

12:19 American economy and the labor market, by the way, and so on. Um, just a quick step back, so, um, Mike Green, who is also on Twitter , a highly talented macro analyst and great manager who has had a great career , a bit older than us, he has actually clearly shown, as the only one I know worldwide, the correlation between the labor market figures, that is, the The employment rate and the American stock price through passive investing. Passive investing leads to

13:04 pension funds being filled, so conversely, full employment leads to pension funds being filled, and passive investing, in turn, leads to the stock market being bought, regardless of fundamentals or not. And because this weight is getting bigger and bigger and bigger, I'm now so focused on the labor market, which used to interest me much less than it does today. I always said, yes, you understand, when some major disaster happens somewhere, it takes all the air out of the market, and the labor market is, if anything, an expiry indicator, not a leading indicator. But today, for the stock market, it's much more of a leading indicator, in my

13:50 opinion. That's changed, and I do n't think many people have understood that 100 percent yet. That will also be very interesting. So, Mike Green, we're just switching over to his X account . He's also, I think, as you say, one of the best macro experts in the world. A completely different story than us. We're still fundamental investors and focus on finding alpha in the sectors we really understand, what I call our Circle of Competence, and Marin is clearly a macro expert, and he really understands it 100%. I mean, that's generally the case between North America and Europe. There are hardly any macro- driven investors here. This whole macro topic is a foreign concept to most people. That's why I think we can learn a lot from the Americans. There's no

14:35 aboriginal culture in general in German-speaking Europe, more so in Switzerland than in Germany , but it's still more of a private banking market than a true hedge fund, and with my Anglo-Saxon education, that's sometimes still enormously irritating for me. The discussions here are incredibly superficial, but you do n't have to smear everything; everyone has to figure it out for themselves . That, definitely, but that's why I think we create this kind of content and so on. continue to work on getting more people excited about the topic or seeing its relevance, especially in times of high inflation, etc. But what I also find very exciting is , on the one hand, yes, we have extremely large ETF savings, which will be

15:22 very exciting when they all want to sell at the same time, which is what happens then, and there may be no more buyers on the market . Go down, then it goes down. But the question is, how much and how quickly, how dramatically, will it go down. But what is also very exciting is that I was practically still in diapers, I would exaggerate, when the DCOM bubble burst. In any case, I was still a long way from buying my first share. You experienced the DCOMB bubble in banking. You traded it, you experienced it live. On the one hand, this huge bubble formation at the end of the 90s, on the other hand, the letting out of the air, the big crash at the beginning of the 2000s. If you When you think about the time back then, do you see parallels to today? Is it even crazier today than it was back then? Are we perhaps only at the beginning of this bubble today? Is

16:08 it still possible? Are we only in 1998? Or are we already in December 1999? What's your feeling? Do you see parallels? What's your mood? Well, no, you can forget about that. It was much crazier back then than it is now. I would say that what we're doing now isn't even a children's birthday party. Back then, everything that couldn't get an incredible valuation . You might have that today in other sectors, maybe stupid coins that nobody wants, or maybe other topics and then in individual situations, but that was everything back then in general.

16:54 You really only had to say, I'm doing pet.com, and then the thing took off like a rocket and then for two years. And it was also an exaggeration, really rock bottom. So the Fiberglass cables, they had order books that exploded, they made Vienna look so warm. And that was actually laid, the cable. And we laid so much cable, I would say between 97 and 21, that it lasted at least 10 years. There are some who say it took 15 to 20 years to fill the capacities,

17:40 cross-border, across the Atlantic and to all sorts of destinations. So, it was really, really, really extreme. So, that's one thing. The valuations, for example, for Microsoft, weren't reached again for 14 years . It was high in 2000, and Microsoft more or less did everything right after that and at some point in 2014 was a dividend stock with 8% dividends, and nobody paid any attention. So, um, we're still a long way from that. I would also say that there are many things today. I think that have strong valuations, which are simply very, very special. So, the big ones Five, let's call them, so Microsoft, Google Meta,

18:28 um, Amazon, um, who did I forget? Apple, Apple, Nvidia Meta, Amazon. I want to keep Nvidia out of it because I judge them less highly, Alpha Alphabet. We said Alphabet. Google. So, you understand, these business models are very, very rare. So yes, Google, simply put, Alphabet, or is the landlord of advertising, because they have the only slot that everyone is fighting for in Google Search these days, and they've managed the auction so skillfully that it brings in 200 billion in revenue, and it's just gotten more every year, and I was there myself. I understand these models well. Perhaps

19:14 briefly for your listeners. I worked at SG Warberg in the TMT team between 1996 and 2000 and only did Teich. By the way, after this bubble, I decided that I would never do tech again, because I decided that everything we had thought about was incredibly clever and everything was completely wrong 10 years later. And that's why I decided, like Buffet, that I would completely change my style. I have to adapt and move to a place where you can really understand it and where you don't always think you understand it, and then it's different again, and bad luck is simply that it can reinvent itself so incredibly strongly in 5 years that it's simply difficult to be a long-term investor. Good for Trers, but dangerous for the other companies, like Alphabet,

20:00 Amazon, or Microsoft, have proven to be the exception and built models that had an incredible network effect. Incredibly unique, with a deep moat. That's why I call our company, as we call it, or more accurately, Baffezagt Mode, and you just have to give it to them, they really make money. The iPhone, we're all addicted. We all have it in our hands and use it, and no one can get past the iPhone Store or Apple's App Store, and you just pay your rent to use it, and then there's a second ecosystem, and they're doing well too. But you see, no one can cut them off that quickly. So, and the They have also marketed it perfectly and

20:47 optimized these models and all these names, including, um, now you simply have to respect them. And that was very different in 2000. Back then, we did have two or three names like Cisco and Microsoft that were really high quality, but you understand? Cisco was not comparable to the quality of Google today. So, now it's getting dangerous. What? Now I'm going to the next level. Now we have e, because so far, if I may interrupt Schulz, I would use it as the title for this podcast or this episode. Nasdaq has the potential to reach 40,000. We are not valued. I really, I just don't know such things

21:34 at the margin, and you have to remain incredibly flexible in your head and think in scenarios and not always in absolute terms. Um, the point is, AI is now the bigger story, or the smaller one, than the Internet, and probably the bigger one in the long term, but in the short term I would be very cautious because people usually have too high expectations in the short term and underestimate where the journey will lead in the long term. End. And I can well imagine that in 20 years, this will be seen through every crack in our lives. AI good or not so good. But in the short term, it could be overestimated a bit and

22:19 suddenly there might be a back cycle similar to that in 99, when things were simply done too quickly and then in the wrong direction, and the iPhone was still missing to really get the Internet off the ground . Then suddenly there's still some ingredient missing, what is needed to put the whole thing together, the puzzle. And in retrospect, you always see that clearly, but in the beginning it just wasn't so clear. One hundred percent. Yes, PCs were simply, I mean, not relevant enough in 99/2000 to get the whole thing off the ground. Everything was far too complicated. We did n't have enough breadth, I mean to serve Amazon, which I did n't do at all back then, because there were

23:06 much better shops or whatever they call it today when it comes to search. Back then, we were working with Alter Wist or with directories like They were simply much better than Google. But then that changed, and you understand? There are sometimes small changes that take place somewhere in the background, that we don't see clearly enough, but which then suddenly have a huge impact. I maintain that the iPhone really made the internet take off. Absolutely. That was really what made this new technology mobile for the masses, and before that it had simply taken on unrealistic directions. Do you have another funny story for us ? Do you remember the craziest stock that you bought, either at the bank or privately, between 1996 and

23:52 2000, or is there any story that sticks in your head where you say it was a horror journey? Cisco was definitely a horror journey. I did, but you have to say, these companies survived. Many of these companies did; they had absurd valuations in 2000 and then ultimately went under in the following years . There are entire websites that show the mass grave of the internet. Yes, if I can still find them, I'll send them to you for this thing. Well, it's pretty brutal what went wrong there. So, I then did something very specific, I joined the company because I was so obsessed with it and only wanted to be part of it, and software read everything and read everything from giants and so on, quite fanatically young, hungry, endless energy, 18 hours a day

24:39 without stopping. And I went to a company called OPri, which did content management and only had five competitors. One of them was called Winett in America, which was already huge and so on, and they all don't exist anymore, all gone, every single one of them. One hundred percent. The only thing I can imagine as to why this current PLE might get a little bigger before it bursts is that I have to say, AI probably already has a greater influence today than the internet did in 99 and 2000. You're absolutely right, but we do n't know who will win in the end. That's the dangerous whole game. That's true. But if you Simply referring to the overall market , I believe that as long as the economy plays along, if the labor market data and so on are poor

25:24 , then AI will initially only play a subordinate role. But if they can keep the whole thing together, I think a lot of imagination and euphoria can still come into play. But let's go back to that briefly to confirm that, right? The numbers being invested are huge and they are real. It 's not that stupid. We're going public and it's called pet.com and we've raised 50 million and are investing in a boring, low-tech online shop, which everyone then treated like the next trip to the moon. Yes, here, for example, on the Microsoft side, they have a commitment of 50 to 70 billion in investments per year.

26:10 Yes. And that's not funny money. That comes out of the factory, and then they still have free cash flow from... Yeah, well, that's a different story, and that's why I wouldn't... compare one thing, but in the end you can still build exaggerations, still create extreme message hype , which then completely collapse at the end . You can still let everything that makes no sense, like this Katy Woods with her stuff, come to the surface and then collapse at the end. But if anything, I've seen this cycle, this nonsense, I call it cycles, during the Covid crisis. Yes, I actually thought the speculation was only for a phase at most. Everything that

26:56 was online and Zoom or whatever was then uploaded. That was very typical of 99, just still in a small way. Yes, I agree, a quick change of subject, because it is of course interesting to say one more thing for everyone, as an exception. Miller lost hundreds of millions during that time. Yes, and if he can't do it, I would simply advise all your listeners to stick with it, to read these cycles correctly . If he can't do it, no one can. Absolutely. I said that for everyone who's watching this now in the reaction to the video from Philip Hopf also gave this example, that Druck Miller first went short at the wrong time and then went long again at the wrong time, making mistakes

27:43 within 12 months. After that, he needed six months because he was so exhausted and he is one of the best investors of the last 50 years, or that means that the builder is perhaps the richer, but when it comes to the returns , apart from James Simmons, who, if you like, cracked Coke , how to automate the market, nobody new comes along in Krckenwiller, I would say. In terms of market understanding, he I think Technology by Jim Simmons, which I think has over 70% over 30 years, yes, um, in terms of market understanding, I think Druck Miller is simply in a league above War Buffe tt, but he also takes a different approach. Um, but the

28:29 switch to geopolitics, because you said what I think many people left out at the beginning, um, you can or you assume that Donald Trump or the American government is closer than ever since the start of the war to a possible peace or let's call it a ceasefire in Ukraine . What leads you to this conclusion or what do you see that makes you somewhat optimistic? Uh, that at least a short-term ceasefire is possible? As you know, I said in April 2021 that things were going to explode, and everyone just shook their heads and said that this wouldn't happen again in Europe, and then it continued until February 2022, when it all started. What do I want to say? when you deal with commodities, especially oil, where we really have the ambition to understand things, or gas only signs, why, what, how,

29:16 the gas storage facilities in Europe were no longer filled by Gasbom, not the ones you had, but the ones here with us , which you were still allowed to have back then. And there were early indicators where I said that the fit here no longer fits together. And now, despite what has happened, I'm still looking very closely at it because there are so many variations that in turn become very geopolitically relevant for Syl. So, if Trump does n't get this done and really dies , I'm saying the Urals from Russia, that's about half of the oil they sell. Al is a brand for your listeners, who are

30:01 primarily shipped from Hossee and today primarily go to India. Um, if the American president pulls out all the stops because he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, then he can actually shell out these two and a half million Berlins a day . And please don't think that we're just talking a little bit here , because this is a market that we're watching very closely and we've iterated and seen all the variations over the last 20 years and in most cases I'm relatively sober. But tell me now, if Trump wants that, then he can do it, what Trump wants like the plague

30:47 is higher oil prices. So he only does that if he already has supplies open somewhere else. He probably managed that with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. That's one reason why the UAE is probably sitting in Moscow today saying, "Hey, boy, watch out, he's serious." Um and um only the American president could sanction this in such a way that the oil would actually be turned off. Whether he will do that is a completely different question and I am not so sure about that, but I could imagine that there is enough preparation by now for it to be credible in Moscow that he could do it and that they could then still

31:33 declare war or something, I don't know what, but in the end you just have to know that nobody is going to mess with the Americans and that's just not the case. And if that's the case, then the Russian is now in exactly the right place to say, you know what, I haven't achieved all my goals yet, but I have to address something here. How could I arrange things so that I am not to blame later if the peace, perhaps a ceasefire, is broken, and so on. So my interpretation here is that the Russians, the Kremlin I should say, because it's not just normal Russians who are involved, we have nothing against what the Kremlin is trying to

32:21 find some kind of ceasefire, which, if it does n't come about or is broken, then it will be Ukraine's fault and not the Russians', because they really don't want Trump to suddenly start making a fuss about Moscow like he did recently and say, 'But now I'm really preparing real oil sanctions here. And I think that's just the point where he's probably going to have some initial success, and I think everyone has just come back from Witkof's visit and is somewhat optimistic, but that's happened a few times before, and the Russians are good at holding people off and continuing to pursue their geostrategic goals . You also have to see

33:07 what a ceasefire means when there is one, because basically if the air and the water are declared a ceasefire, then that is not the land and then they can carry on fighting and Russ may even have secured a small advantage and so on. There are still a lot of games coming out, but if anything I think we're close to getting something done now. The question is how long it will last and what it will look like. We'll have to look at that again. But I say, if you don't get anything from Trump now, then the Russian risks that, I'll call him what he is, the narcissist Trump will then say, and now I'm angry. And what will the Russian do? I say at this point he will try at least not to play like that.

33:53 Yes, first of all, for someone like you, who has been following this whole situation surrounding Russia for years or decades, I think. Very interesting views and I hope, of course, and I believe many of the listeners do too, that you are right and that we can at least make a small step forward in this peace process. I think that would be extremely important, especially for Europe . And I also believe that if you look at it from a larger geopolitical lens, for the Americans, or at least the current American government, China is the final boss and not necessarily the Russians. Um, and that's why I think it's really important to end this conflict as quickly as possible in order to focus all resources on China at the end of the day , whatever that means in the end. But that's actually the

34:39 only interesting thing. But I must also say that if Trump succeeds in making peace in Ukraine now, then he will have managed to calm the Israel-Iran conflict, at least for the moment. He would have managed to calm the Ukraine-Russia conflict. You have to say that he probably deserved the Nobel Prize, or at least the government and all the people who were involved, because that would be something that no one has really managed to do for years and decades. Do you see it differently? A European didn't manage it. Yes, unfortunately Europeans have achieved very little geopolitically in the last few years or decades, but from that perspective that would also be a positive outlook, which would also apply to this whole situation if we keep a relatively stable labor market here, if we even manage to achieve peace in Ukraine

35:25 , we have peace with Iran, Israel, and we also have a trade agreement with China, where we would then have a situation that could once again create euphoria on the markets . That would at least be a possible environment, which would be very, very positive . But perhaps , while we're on the subject of geopolitics, let's turn to fossil fuels and then add something briefly, because that might be on someone's mind. Basically, I would recommend everyone to take things one at a time and not to rush into too much and to watch very closely what is being done . So, for example, what is gas about? One could now say, ah, and then more Russian gas will come to Europe again. As you know, we have the data as accurate as anyone can have and

36:12 I think we have looked at it with the market in the past and predicted it relatively well or so, if I can interrupt this for a moment, I know your models and your databases and I think you probably have a better database than most countries in Europe. lä mittlerweile als als draf Figura, they don't want to hear that, but I think it's true. The point is, that will only work if the European sanctions against Russia change. Although we don't have any sanctions specifically for gas , we do have them for oil. But fundamentally, the companies in Germany are not particularly keen to

37:02 start using gas again. They are all in court with Gasbrum because of the breaches of contract that Gasbrum committed between June 2021 and more or less July 2022. Yes, long-term contacts do not cool down, even with Nordstream. Yes, this is often mistold. It is not that the Nord Stream was sanctioned by the Europeans, but it was the Russians who put the Nord Stream into maintenance early and then there was the big story with the Siemens turbine, which is not there yet. That's why we can't start again and I told Mark in the interview back then that he won't let them start again. Then, by chance, there was this attack where

37:49 I said at the time at the market, you can imagine, the Russians are because of these breaches of contract, which then happened in front of SM Marchinsel. I have a different opinion today . I think Spiegel researched it well and I can well imagine that it was a special commander from Ukraine. Whatever it is, it's not important. One tube is no longer there, and we won't be putting the second tube into operation, so it's gone. But there are still two large lines from Russia where we can absolutely increase our gas supply without any problems. We could reach 150 bzms per year, no problem. But I simply don't believe that customers are there for it , with or without the EU. So, secondly, on the oil side, I do n't think that the options on the European side will come down in the event of a ceasefire

38:35 . There might be one or two gifts for good will and to lead to improvement. But I think the Americans would probably lift certain sanctions , but not the Europeans. And that's why nothing will probably change on the commodity side so quickly and in the short term. That's perhaps what I wanted to say. So, in my expectations, maybe good for the stock market, for the mood, peace and so on, but much worse for the sentiment of Reinmetall or the defense industry. Maybe there wo n't be much coming now and so on. And there too I would be cautious, that would then be more of a buying opportunity, because I believe that Europe will rearm and America will no longer hold its hand towards Europe, and that is right. Either we can or we do n't always have to have the same demands that we

39:21 have in Europe. Um, but um, I think on the commodity side I am very skeptical that physically and in the end it is only the molecule that decides what flows and not the stories surrounding it in the commodity area. Um, I don't think I'll change anything that quickly. Um, fair fair, naff. So, based on your data, how do you currently see the gas situation in Europe? Is that any cause for concern, or have we now settled down quite well and ensured security of supply through other means, even without Russia? We are lucky. We had very low stocks because we had, let's say, a normal winter and that was

40:07 a bit too much to keep stocks together because we went too far in the past with the green walls and all the things we did. In the past, a third of the gas was simply missing and all of that was brought in via LNG shipping. We could have done more, it was a bit too much to order over the winter and then in March and April we really noticed that now we really have to get to work and time. I would say we are going full steam ahead with the import of LNG and filling the situation up to a reasonably reasonable level , but not back to the levels of last October. So I'm saying we'll be at around 85% stock levels when it comes to gas across Europe. Every country

40:55 will have a slightly different situation. So now that's bad. It certainly doesn't help, but now comes the crucial point. Um, China is again playing a role for Europe globally, and they are currently buying relatively little LNG for their standards, or are even freeing up capacity that Europe can get, and that's why the price isn't really going up. So even if we need more quantity at the moment China is letting a lot of it go because they simply did n't have the hot summer as last year and therefore need a bit less cooling, so that LNG plays a slightly smaller role. On the industrial side

41:43 China is also extremely weak and simply needs a bit less than expected and so there is actually enough capacity without driving the prices up again and how it will be in the winter we have to take it in the winter . You should n't look too far ahead with commodities, especially not with weather commodities like gas. The weather simply plays a crucial role. But that means that from an investment point of view you find the gas market just as uninteresting as the oil market and the W boring, you can't make any money there at the moment , unless something suddenly happens on the demand side in China, then it might really happen in two, but otherwise nothing at all is happening. Your conclusion for the oil market is probably similar at the moment, or as you briefly mentioned in the intro , you can even imagine falling oil prices over the next 12 months

42:29 . Is it because Trump now has a very good relationship with all the Gulf states, with the Saudis, etc., and has ultimately agreed good deals or agreements with them in the background? People, get enough oil on the market. Oil rice a low oil price keeps inflation down for me. Does the American economy remain strong, does that play into my hands politically, or what do you see as the main arguments as to why the price of oil is n't moving at the moment ? Well, the potion can do a lot, but it ca n't do everything, and it can't predict the price of oil down to the minute or force it to go where it wants with its will . But in general, what is currently deciding is the fundamental side and that

43:14 plays the most important role and that is number one on the demand side, which has been an additional demand for 20 years: around half a million per year, per day. Um, they're coming from China and the party is over and I've been saying that since 2020, do n't believe me, by now everyone is starting to think it's over. Kin no longer has growth on oil. Exactly. So what you mean by party over is that the Chinese economy is currently suffering greatly. So there are several elements in it. In my opinion, they are definitely number one in the recession, even if that is somehow still presented on the GDP page

43:59 as 5%, because that is how it has to be in the Soviet Leninist structure , because the boss ordered it. But in general, that is a reason. It's weakening. The real estate crisis is so deep, it is quite clear to all Richard Co, the author of the Balance Reession of Japan in this precise Balance Re, that is when the consumer and the companies behave in a completely new way. It's less about the balance sheet itself, but everyone is saying, come on, be careful with the leverage , this is going to be difficult. And that is exactly what China is all about. So, this is influenced and goes through everything and influences everything. And we see the flatters, they are deflationary finished. Secondly, what China is also doing is making

44:46 geostrategic changes and they have been doing so for 10 years. They then go to what everyone here calls the Greens. Wow, Eve, but what they're actually doing is they're switching to coal. They go out of the trash and into the coal. The Chinese device is 55 to 60% coal. No matter what you still have on Renewabbles, whether you hire or not is the second question. Whether the decisive part is coal, the Chinese themselves have endless opportunities in Mongolia to set the price one to one. Soem the industrial prices, which are currently all low, determine exactly on the energy side . And the more cars there are on it, the better geopolitically, because because the oil and the oil imports can basically in the

45:33 event of a war, if they object to Taiwan and the Americans say, no, that's not how it works and we're going to do it here, we're going to try to hurt you where it hurts, then he can basically occupy two or three sea straits with his submarines and make it really difficult for China to import oil. He can't do that at all when it comes to money . So geopolitically, coal is the key thing that the GI wants. And there 's a huge change. You can also see this in the oil consumption figures now, because everything that is sold new is moving towards EVI or hybrid.

46:20 And you can slowly see that because everything is so big and happens so quickly. And I say that's an important factor. And the last factor is that the recession is now having such a big impact on heavy industry and transport, i.e. trucks, that they are switching to gas whenever possible because it is simply cheaper than diesel. And we notice that very clearly and by the way there are producers in Germany like Mercedes who do not have the model, the truck that runs on LNG and their sales figures are therefore quiet. So those of you listening who know the auto industry in Germany well , take a close look at this. That's what's happening strategically in China, and that's one reason why I

47:07 say peak diesel and gasoline in China was in 2022. Whether that was peak jet fuel demand or NAFTA demand, I'd say the industrial side, the processing of plastics and so on, P, let's leave that aside for now, but the two transport consumers, diesel and gasoline, as we call it, I would say the peak was in 2022. And without that, you simply have no growth in the oil market and back to global demand . There is only a little bit of growth coming from India, OECD, everything is melting, not much on the Marche, but that is the crucial point with the Mü, so

47:52 that number 1 and number 2 is the supply side, which is always misunderstood by generalists and we have a very strong supply side that is currently growing everywhere, growing in the Middle East, a little in Asia and in America, including Latrückt. Who are you? The Canadian is growing beautifully. The Brazilian is crazy. He's going to be a force to be reckoned with in the next five years. Guana is growing and getting better and better. Argentina is emerging from its slumber . Um, Venezuela is a number that could explode under Trump. So with other sites we have both.

48:37 On the supply side, we have a China, which has had a decisive influence on the growth on the supply side . That's gone and there are no weaknesses on the supply side . The peel is still holding together. Permien works but still not tipping over. It still doesn't happen at some point . And that's why you generally have fundamental oil in your mind. Now we can go into anything . Uh OPEC still has an increase in capacity. They're ramping them up now because they're fed up with managing the oil price for the whole world, let's say. Saudi Arabia simply made mistakes and strategic decisions six years ago. I explained this on Twitter in several tweets over the

49:22 last two years and said, I call Saudi Decision Time, they have to get out now and get their Marketsha back. And if that happens, then you'll have even more oil in the market and usually that's a difficult time for oil and that's what I see over the next 12 months. Now there are certain variations in the game as to why it doesn't have to be so weak or can we go into it in more detail otherwise , because otherwise we'll only be talking about Syl in any case and I will definitely invite you here again when things get more exciting in the oil market because if oil prices should fall over the next 12 months, then I think there will be some bargains in the oil producer market too, you already have some, but of course, if they've already

50:08 been beaten down pretty badly, if prices stay lower or even fall further, then probably only a manageable amount of investment capital will flow into the sector. And as you just said, which is also an exciting development, which is not even being discussed in Europe, that the Americans are also trying to bring Venezuela back online. Um, and when oil starts flowing again, prices will probably not rise, at least not in the short term, and listeners, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves, not Saudi Arabia, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. It 's crazy when you think about how the country has been politically destroyed. This should actually be one of the richest in the world. Is it guaranteed to be the richest in the world from a raw materials perspective? The Orinoca is the largest oil deposit known to

50:55 mankind and has been for four, five decades, we know for a long time, and it was systematically destroyed under socialism. But if you go back to the 1960s, you can see how ostentatious everything was in Venezuela. They have been systematically destroying it for 30 years with socialism and communism. And now, uh, Öland is one of the poorest and most prolific fields in the world and only produces 800,000 berels per day . If you let Venezuela, if you let Exon Mobile and Chevonum, who recognize this, put their backs in it and

51:41 regulate property rights - that's the job of politicians - and then let them go again and simply do all the workovers - I'm not talking about new fields, just workovers - and fix all the technology that no longer works , then in 15 or 16 months you can be back at 2 million Bel. I don't know of any country in the world that can do that. And when everything is sorted out in the next step, we can talk about it technically. Then you're back at 4 million and if there was really, let's say, an American oil industry boom, then you would be at 8 million. So the country has terrible potential. Now it 's still part of OPEC and therefore subject to quotas and there's a lot you can say about that. But the

52:27 point is, Venezuela is really the oil capital of the world, not Saudi Arabia. best example of how politics, especially socialism and communism, can destroy a country. Say, people are starving on the streets because of calories and really every one of them should be living in poverty, but I think it's possible again, so you can rebuild a country and create walls again and at the moment the Americans seem to be interested in that, but in summary we can say that energy markets are rather uninteresting at the moment, especially gas and oil, I think we can ignore them for the time being until the situation changes for some reason. Let's turn to a market that has been in the spotlight frequently in recent weeks and I believe once

53:13 had its best day ever and then a few weeks later its worst day, i.e. the biggest price loss of all time: the American copper market. What is your current situation with good old Dr. Copper? Yes, so what happened there? Trump went there. Now it's back to customs policy. This shows how politics can have a strong influence on commodities. What happened is basically, when we had this interview in 2020 , you said copper is a really hot thing, probably even a super cycle, because we are electrifying everything. I'm sure many listeners have already thought, wow, Kupf and definitely cool. And then the companies like to point out the gap: what if we were to do everything that is being announced,

53:58 yes, anise and wind turbines and so on, then we would have a huge gap here and if we now go forward and with everything that I have studied and considered and looked at in the meantime, for me the big thing that I have changed is China. And in China, the construction industry simply accounted for 25% of GDP, and that used, I would say, 15% of the entire copper market worldwide . So just so that the listening understanding consumes China. We we we so we don't consume it, but we need copper or used in English. The Chinese need 50% of the world's

54:45 brainpower. Good. And now, um, what I'm saying is at least 15% of that from the total market, not from the Chinese market. Um, uh, river into construction, so roads, but above all houses and the party is over. Many houses are being built at a rate roughly the same as in America, if at all. They are started but not finished, and the copper intensity in construction is in the cables, the pipes, the washing machines, everything we wire, the finish, if you will, of the house construction and not in the shell. And that is exactly what is missing. And that's why

55:33 I'm so skeptical about whether the Chinese are n't mining an incredible amount of copper, and then this EV revolution isn't just an addition to it, but instead of it. Yes, and today I'm simply no longer the one who sees the super cycle at all, but I'm open to one thing or the other. Can we come back exactly. Now back to your question. What happened there? Trump also said there, I want to reindustrialize America and that's why I'm going to hit the hell out of copper too, and because he said that in a tweet without explaining exactly what he meant by it, both copper and the finished products (copper

56:18 re-coated), i.e. copper cables or copper pipes or I don't know what else, everything in America has become more expensive compared to the international parallel price, i.e. the elements in London or the Chinese price in Shanghai. In some cases it went up to 50% customs, so it must have been 50% higher . announced it in February for August and then it went up to about a 40% premium to the international price and then he came out and said, yes, now we've thought it through, it really doesn't make any sense to use copper for the reindustrialization of America and so

57:04 the premium to the international price was corrected back in one day , the arbitrage, if you like. between America and Europe is gone and um uh so the price is back, but with us and um the issue is not quite over yet, whether there will be tariffs on copper in America, but for the moment the issue is over. By the way, I explained this on Twitter at the moment it happened and, by the way, with an announcement to Kupfer himself, for your listening pleasure. I can confirm that at this point. I still remember your tweet where you said this premium will not stay. The American I said, well, if he makes a taco

57:50 , then the bonus is gone. Then there's an arbitrage that no longer exists and then it's corrected in one day, not two. And that was done, but to summarize, I would say the copper market is currently neutral. In any case, I don't think you have any positions open in copper mines per se. That means you can say, okay, our raw materials expert, he is not invested in oil, he is not invested in net gas, he is not invested in copper, so what do people do in Switzerland? There are n't that many commodity classes left, but I know of one that you're extremely bullish on, and that's obviously something to complement copper, which is what comes to mind. Then he interrupts me again, unbelievable. But of course you can add something about the copper. There are, there are, I'll say,

58:36 um, yes, with the, how can I put this diplomatically ? Yes, for those who think quickly but don't really want to look at it closely, there's Doctor Kupfer and look, Kupfer, Kupfer does this and that and that tells me all sorts of things about the macroeconomic situation and since everyone's really comfortable with each other these days, please forget about that, it doesn't exist anymore. The Dr. Kupfer will now tell me what the German or American economy is doing. There is simply too much going into China for there to be any more signals. And then, by the way, on top of everything, there are various country prizes and arbitrage and all kinds of games that are played. So be really careful with the signals that may have worked in the 90s , when

59:22 the copper price in America was simply set, but that is simply no longer the case today. But now I have to ask briefly about the price of copper, because despite all this nonsense about tariffs and so on, and now price increases and drops, the price of copper is still at a very, very high level historically. Um, what would be your explanation for that? Because if we now say, okay, it's not necessarily because the Chinese economy is booming and the global economy is also struggling, is it perhaps doing okay? It's hard to know, depending on what data you look at, but per se, why isn't the price of copper much lower? I did a podcast this week in German with a copper expert who only

1:00:07 does this, and I explain it there. My idea would be, why don't your listeners watch it and share the link? Not because we don't love your podcast , but because I want you to have opportunities to talk about other things. But the word is fake demand. The five-year plan of a Leninist structure in China still dictates what washing machines they have to build. But there's no one around there who's buying it. So, we don't have a final demand, but a fake intermediate demand. We are in a difficult phase of correctly reading the signals from China , but it is still the wall. Interesting. We'll link the podcast below. You can take a

1:00:52 closer look at this theory or thesis, which at first glance sounds quite interesting and plausible. But as you already said, we have another very large topic block and finally a topic block where steel is very, very bullish and that is the precious metals or specifically the gold market. We could perhaps also say a few words about the other three precious metals, but you've really been very bullish on the gold market for months or even years now . You made some very good investments there , so you were absolutely on the right side of history. Where does your positive outlook on gold come from? Is this also because you are critical of the monetary system ? You said at the beginning that you would take Swiss francs with you for 10 years while you were in a coma . That means you might not even get out. Um, but are you a classic Austrian goldsmith who believes we

1:01:38 need a different monetary system? Have you observed other fundamental developments in the gold market that have made you so bullish and are ultimately the largest position in your investment portfolio. Yes, in general I would be cautious, I mean I try to be cautious myself when it comes to this, uh, when it comes to falling in love with any theory. I think you really have to show a lot of humility when it comes to the markets and not just think in one direction. But what's happening in gold, what's new? In 22 the Russians are there again or we cannot ignore geopolitics when it comes to understanding our markets. And in 2022, the

1:02:24 Russians invaded and the Europeans and Americans imposed sanctions. These sanctions have meant, among other things, that the Russians' bond holdings in American Treasuries have been frozen, to the tune of, I believe, 600 billion . And now the Chinese, the GI, who basically sees the CCP as a party system with a Leninist structure, who call themselves communists , please, I'm not saying that, they're saying that, they're watching and saying, wait a minute , I don't want

1:03:10 the West freezing things with Swift sanctions or with, my, my, obligation best or anything else . So what is actually left here where I have no counterparty risk , neither geopolitically nor financially, because they might take on too much debt and then it's not really right to be there anymore and then it's just gold and now you say it might also be Bitcoin for your listener and that's absolutely great from my point of view, which I'll leave to you. Since the specialists there, I really don't need to explain anything, but I am saying that from the state's point of view, it is China, by the way, I think Bitcoin is banned, if I am right, but

1:03:57 gold is then the one where more is invested in the margin as a reserve currency . Now what does that mean in numbers? In figures that means that between 2008 and 202, central banks all over the world bought an average of 500 tonnes of gold a year, although this varied considerably. From 2022 onwards, this rose to 1,000 tonnes. And in a market of 4,000 tonnes, most of which was in jewellery, the second largest share in industrial

1:04:43 processing, central banks and a bit of speculation in between , we can come to this in peace. Um, suddenly a 500 ton waste is huge and what is perhaps even more important is that this purchasing behavior is no longer price sensitive. It's all geopolitical. The People's Bank of China buys gold, although in my opinion they don't fully declare this. Can we come back to that. Buying gold for diversification reasons and for self-protection, and not for reasons like oil or gas or copper, where they are extremely price-sensitive

1:05:29 , is a bag. These are purely geopolitical investments, and it's not just them that are doing this these days, but others too. By the way, the Pole is making huge gains when it comes to gold and reserves, but the Middle East is also doing so, and all of these countries can be measured if you go to Work Council and take a close look. It just takes a bit of work, but that's what we're here for and what we enjoy doing: really understanding this data. So I only noticed all of this, not because I thought, yes, the Chinese guy will definitely do that now, maybe I should have thought about it , but I didn't. What I have noticed, however, is that the real interest rate has correlated one-to-one with gold between, let's

1:06:14 say, 1985 and 2022, the American real. When the Rins went up, gold went down and vice versa. Um, this correlation just broke down. 2020 22, so I wrote a customer at the end of 2022 . We're noticing that the correlation has broken down, but we haven't really considered it that much yet because there simply hasn't been enough fundamental data yet. Remember, for many of these dates you have a leg of up to three, sometimes six months. Yes, but now in April 254 I come and say, well

1:07:00 now it's clear, we don't have to rattle anymore. It is now clear what is happening. The Chinese are primarily changing the gold market and commodities in general. That's not the only thing we're doing, but we've focused very strongly on the fundamentals of this topic and are working very closely with data and not with our feelings. Um, by the way, we also spend a lot of money on it. Um, the point is simply with commodities in general, including gold, even if it is, if you like, a currency or reserve store of value, whatever, but own what the Chinese are buying and if you started to say in 1990 , you know what this could

1:07:46 be interesting thing with garbage, then you were actually with volatility and recession and 28 and so on for long stretches. You were fundamentally right. The oil went from 30 on a platform invented, somewhere between 100 and 150. Only in 214 with the Shell needs it again. So we can come back to it. It was really full throttle. It was right in every single base metal, nickel, zinc, tin, everything. And it was right when it came to the coal, which is what the Chinese wanted. um go there and hold it. And he currently wants to do this geopolitically, which is even more interesting than purely from a consumer perspective in gold. And I believe that will not change

1:08:32 as long as the two, the American and the Chinese, let's say, continue to argue geopolitically, and under Trump, more deals or fewer deals, that will not stop, and I would say that under XI it will not stop anyway. 100 percent and then I think you have an additional catalyst, a possible restructuring of the monetary system over at least the next decade or two and even more gold 100 percent or that really has to be said again very clearly. So we definitely have a fiat money crisis. I think you just have to be careful. I would call it that. This is a train wreck, our financial system is really going to the dogs, but it's a slow

1:09:18 train wreck and I think the narratives are sometimes ahead of the train and sometimes a little behind it, but don't we expect that everyone will then just sell the American dollar? I think I'm not a structural bull for the American dollar at this point with all the tariffs and everything that Trump is doing right now. But then there's always a countermovement, which is probably where we are right now, and then there's another crisis and then everyone will happily go back into the American dollar and the Treasury. But I just want to say, these things don't die overnight, but if we carry on like this and the Americans are currently carrying on like this, namely more debt, the Europeans will carry on like this anyway and the Germans will be the last good ones left in the whole game. We Swiss don't count;

1:10:03 we may be the best, but we're simply too small to matter. But the last, as I like to say, the last good balance sheet of Europe, the German one, is still being brought up. So, these are not good conditions for fiat currencies and so I'm certainly not using the wrong word here, but I would like to point out again that, if anything, there are several factors why gold works, but the main factor is the Chinese central point. The second factor, I say, is the Chinese consumer, where the real estate bubble has now burst and where he has no other option than to go anywhere with his stuff . There was no choice anymore. He can only go to the gold shop , where he likes to go anyway, purely for cultural reasons.

1:10:48 Yes, we are clearly seeing a surge in demand. The Inter continues to do exactly the same and now all sorts of Europeans and Americans are slowly coming along and saying, "Well, I'm starting to get a bit worried," and they might then go into Bitcoin first and then a bit more into gold, or depending on who is older, maybe more into gold, younger people more into Bitcoin, whatever the case may be, but the trend is definitely the same here. Then we had a short target phase where the Americans brought back the physical gold, whatever was in London, which they then brought back to America via Switzerland because they had to reweight it. But that was also an additional thing.

1:11:34 We are being accused of this in Switzerland today, and we are getting 39% tariffs because we had a large trade surplus with America , but from their perspective it is a deficit

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