What is the Cone of Plausibility? - Futures Thinking 101

0:00 in today's video we are going to look at another commonly used Futures thinking tool in this case it's the Futures cone also known as the cone of plausibility now this is a tool that helps us to visualize different types of Futures possible probable and preferable Futures cone is structured into three main categories normally although it has been adapted in various Ways by certain groups and organizations three categories are normally possible probable and preferable Futures so possible Futures Encompass all scenarios that could happen regardless of their likelihood so this can include some real wildcard out there

0:46 thinking probable Futures are those that are more likely to occur based on current trends and data preferable Futures are the ones that we desire to achieve that reflect our go goes and values sometimes there are also Preposterous Futures in some models and these are outcomes that are currently deemed impossible but could become possible with significant changes in the world around us so if we look into possible Futures uh this category includes all conceivable scenarios even those that seem unlikely exploring possible f Futures encourages us to think creatively and

1:33 consider a wide array of potential developments it's important not to dismiss any scenario too quickly as even unlikely events can have significant impacts and as we know particularly from recent history the future can be incredibly hard to predict with any degree of accuracy probable Futures are grounded in current trends and forecasts they normally have a good amount of data backing up their consideration they represent what is likely to happen if existing patterns continue this category is crucial for strategic planning as it helps organizations plan and prepare for expected changes by analyzing probable Futures we

2:20 can identify opportunities and threats that are coming potentially in the near term preferable Futures are those that we are actively working towards because they align with our values and goals shaping these Futures requires intervention and strategic action to steer developments in a favorable Direction so this aspect of the cone emphasizes the role of our control our agency in creating a future that we desire sounds good so how do we do that what is a a good application of the cone of plausibility firstly start with current trends and by analyzing current trends

3:07 and projecting them into the future it's possible to identify probable scenarios and this can form the basis of your cone second step is to explore uncertainties so here we identify key uncertainties and variables that could influence future outcomes this will help in mapping out plausible and possible Futures Beyond the probable ones at this point don't be scared to imagine catastrophic or world changing events as as we just mentioned it's very hard to know exactly what the future holds or even roughly what the future holds so the point of this exercise is to expand your thinking and to not rule anything out too soon then we can use some scenarios for

3:55 exploration so we de develop these scenarios within each category or future in the cone to understand how different factors might interact and lead to those various Futures so this can help in stress testing strategies against different potential outcomes it's important to incorporate diverse perspectives during this exercise so you want to engage stakeholders from different backgrounds departments job roles experiences and so on so you can get the most diverse range of insights and and challenge existing assumptions or concrete ways of working that have been long established and rarely get

4:40 questioned finally you want to iterate and update regularly revisit and update this cone as new information emerges or as Trends shift this ensures that your scenarios remain relevant and useful for strategic planning even better is to actually use the information that you're generating from this and any other Futures exercise and Link it to strategic planning so use the insights gain from this cone of plausibility to inform strategic planning and help the organization prepare for a range of possible Futures rather rather than just one predicted or expected outcome and when presenting these findings clearly communicate the range of possible Futures and their

5:26 implications to stakeholders emphasize that the future is not predetermined but is shaped by almost infinite interacting factors so in conclusion the Futures cone can help you your organization or you if you model it on your personal life you individually Embrace uncertainty and complexity by visualizing different future scenarios it can provide a strategic advantage and helping you prepare for multiple mle potential outcomes it's very useful tool it's not that difficult to apply you can whip up a Future's cone in quite a small Workshop within a couple of hours and generally speaking people find it a

6:14 fun creative activity which can then generate some very useful tactical and strategic outcomes I hope this video has been helpful if you had any questions about cone applaus ability or the Futures cone leave them below or contact me directly and I look forward to seeing you in the next video