0:00 Is crypto about to create more wealth than every billionaire class on Earth combined? Right now, most people think the big move already happened. Bitcoin ran, altcoins cooled, liquidity dried up, and the noise online says the cycle is over. But according to Raul Pal, that belief couldn't be more wrong. In fact, he argues we are still in the early innings of what could become the single largest macro trade in modern economic history. Here's the scale. The world holds roughly $800 trillion in assets. Gold sit near 30 trillion. Global M2 money supply is around 80 trillion. And the entire digital asset market is barely a few trillion. That gap is the story. Using long-term adoption trends and verifiable market data, Raul Pals digital assets could reach $100 trillion
0:47 by the early 2030s. Even if that forecast is cut in half, the wealth creation would still dwarf anything markets have ever seen. The reason this matters now is timing. Liquidity did not disappear. It was delayed. Debt maturities were extended. Interest costs are being monetized. And the final phase of this cycle, what Raul calls the banana zone, has not even begun yet. According to the data, that phase aligns with a massive liquidity surge into 2026. In this video, we are going to break down why the cycle did not end, why the delay actually makes the upside larger, and how liquidity, business cycles, and network adoption all point to an explosive next phase for crypto. This is not about hype. This is about understanding the math behind the biggest wealth transfer still ahead. And
1:33 before we jump into it, just a quick reminder, only a small percentage of you watching are actually subscribed. If you're getting value from the videos, hit that subscribe button. It's free. It supports the channel and you can always change your mind later. Now, let's begin. >> Basically, we've got about $800 trillion dollars of assets out there in the world. Gold is at 30 trillion. Globe M2 80 trillion and Bitcoin or the whole of digital assets is like 3.5 trillion. Okay. So, it's nothing yet. But when you use the trend rate of adoption, i.e. the market cap of crypto overall it is in a secular log regression channel and you can forward project out where it's going to go and it tells us by around 2032
2:21 2034 this is a hundred trillion asset a hundred trillion asset means we're going to create $97 trillion of new wealth which would be the largest wealth creation in all of economic history in the shortest period of time to put it this way it'll create more wealth than all of the Middle East, every Russian billionaire, every US tech billionaire, every finance billionaire, every real estate billionaire on Earth. That's what's here. This is what the game is. Discount me 50%. It's still 47 trillion. So, we're only 3% of the way there or 6% of the way there if you've h haveved my my forecast. So, that's the game. That's why at XPAM we allocate to the world's
3:09 best hedge funds in the space to capture this trend, this overall trend. That's all we're trying to do is not up this one trend, which is the greatest macro trade of all time. The final part is what everybody cares about is the banana zone. When does it happen? And look, that liquidity drain that happened in July onwards has been miserable. But the the thing remains the same. We've still not had the last phase. The last phase is the debt refunds uh the refi cycle phase and that is 2026. When Raul Pal says crypto is still early, he is not using that word casually. He is anchoring it to the size of the global balance sheet. Roughly $800 trillion of assets exist across the
3:54 world today. Gold accounts for about 30 trillion. Global M2 money supply sits near 80 trillion. Meanwhile, the entire digital asset market remains a tiny fraction of that total. At a few trillion dollars, it is still statistically insignificant relative to global wealth. What changes the conversation is adoption. When you chart the total market value of digital assets over time, it follows a long-term logarithmic adoption curve similar to the early growth of the internet or mobile technology. That curve is not random. It reflects network expansion, capital access, infrastructure maturity, and increasing institutional comfort. By projecting that adoption trend forward, Raul arrives at a potential market size of roughly $100 trillion between 2032
4:40 and 2034. That number sounds extreme until it is placed in context. A $100 trillion digital asset market implies the creation of nearly 97 trillion in new wealth from current levels. that would exceed the combined wealth of oil states, technology founders, real estate empires, and financial dynasties built over generations. Even if the forecast is wrong by half, the outcome would still represent the largest wealth creation event ever recorded. This is why Raul frames crypto as a macro trade rather than a speculative bet. It is not about picking a top this year or timing a pullback next month. It is about positioning within a secular shift in how capital stores value and moves across networks. And this long-term picture sets the stage for what comes next because the biggest accelerant of
5:28 adoption has not yet arrived. Liquidity was delayed, not destroyed, and the final phase of this cycle is still ahead. >> Well, what happened here is we've added an extra year in 2022. At the beginning of 22, rates were still at zero. and they extended the debt maturity by a year to five years. So we've got an extra year in the equation. So all of the debts that need to get rolled need to get rolled in 2026 and not 2025. So that's why we've had less liquidity than we've expected at this point. You know, the banana zone point in the cycle has had less liquidity. Only really found this out over the summer when I redid the maths on all of this and realized, okay, wow, they they've actually changed the structure
6:14 of liquidity here. So when we change it to the new 5.4 year where the debt maturity is, this is what we're going to get. So again, it gives you an idea that we're probably likely to peak out uh towards the end of 2026 in terms of liquidity as opposed to this year. So probabilistically speaking, which is how I think about the world, we've got further to go and we've got the big liquidity burst to come. One of the biggest sources of confusion in this cycle is timing. Many investors expected the explosive liquidity phase to arrive earlier following the familiar 4-year rhythm. When that did not happen, confidence cracked. According to Raul Pal, the reason is not market weakness, but a structural change that quietly
7:00 altered the timeline. In early 2022, interest rates were still near zero. Governments and corporations took advantage of that window by extending their debt maturities. Instead of rolling debt on a 4-year schedule, much of it was pushed out to 5 years. That single decision added an extra year to the entire liquidity equation. Debts that markets assumed would need refinancing in 2025 were pushed into 2026. This matters because liquidity does not arrive randomly. It arrives when debt has to be refinanced. When large amounts of debt mature at once, central banks and treasuries are forced to ease financial conditions to prevent systemic stress. By extending maturities, policymakers delayed that pressure. The result was a longer, slower grind instead of an early surge.
7:48 Raul only fully recognized this shift after recalculating the debt structure and realizing the business cycle itself had been stretched. What had previously looked like a missing liquidity wave was actually a postponed one. When the model is adjusted to reflect a roughly 5.4 year cycle, the picture changes completely. Instead of peaking in 2025, liquidity is now projected to crest toward the end of 2026. Probabilistically, that means the most powerful phase of the cycle is still ahead. Rather than truncating the upside, the delay concentrates it. More debt rolls at the same time. More pressure builds. More easing becomes unavoidable. This reframes recent frustration as preparation. The market has not failed. It has been loading
8:34 energy. And once that pressure releases, the move is unlikely to be subtle. And if you want to stay ahead of these signals and know exactly when the market's heating up or when it's giving you those rare buying windows. I break it down every day in the CryptoNutshell, my free 5-minute daily crypto newsletter. It's built to give you quick, actionable insights so you can make smarter decisions without spending hours buried in charts or headlines. You'll get clear signals on when to buy, when to take profits, and the latest news that could move markets all delivered straight to your inbox. Just click the first link in the description. Enter your email and you're in. >> And here's another way of looking at it is here's the interest payments. The interest payments are what are getting monetized. And so total liquidity just follows the interest payments. So that
9:20 chart tells you we've got around seven or eight trillion dollars uh that we need to print just to cover the interest payments over the next 12 months into the end of 2026 when things calm down a little bit for a while. And this is the reason why the Fed are trying to get rates down or or the Treasury are begging the Fed to get rates down because they need to get rates down to the level of GDP growth which is let's say right now it's about 3% 2 and a half% trend rate. They're going to have to get rates down to that because if not that number keeps compounding because GDP is the activity by which you pay the debts and the interest payments. So
10:06 what we realize within this is the cyclicality of all of this. And this was an important thing when I suddenly realized that the business cycle had gone from variable lengths. And my job as a macro strategist and an investor was to figure out when the business cycle was going to peak and trough. And it was not it's not an easy game because some years we had you know some periods you had like seven-year business cycles other time we had four year. It was moving around the place. And then suddenly everything changed. It suddenly became perfectly four-year cyclical starting in 2008. The cleanest way to understand what is coming next is to stop focusing on headlines and start following interest payments. Raul Pal makes a critical point that often gets overlooked. Total liquidity does not magically appear. It is created because governments must
10:52 service their debt. Interest payments are the mechanism and those payments are increasingly being monetized. When you chart interest obligations across the system, the implication is stark. Over the next 12 months and stretching into the end of 2026, roughly 7 to8 trillion needs to be created just to cover interest costs. This is not stimulus. This is not optional spending. This is basic arithmetic. If interest expenses rise faster than economic growth, the system destabilizes unless rates come down or liquidity expands. That is why pressure on central banks is inevitable. Rates cannot stay far above the trend rate of economic growth without breaking something. Gross domestic product grows at roughly 2 1/2 to 3%. If borrowing
11:38 costs sit well above that, interest compounds faster than the economy that must pay it. The only sustainable outcome is easing. This realization led Raul to a deeper insight about cycles. Before 2008, business cycles varied in length. Some lasted seven years, others were shorter. After the global financial crisis, something changed. Once interest rates were pushed toward zero and debt levels exploded, the cycle locked into a consistent rhythm. Since 2008, the system has followed a remarkably precise 4-year pattern driven by refinancing and liquidity injections. The recent extension of debt maturities did not break that pattern. It stretched it. The engine is still interest payments and those payments are now clustering into a larger window. That means liquidity is
12:25 not fading. It is accumulating. When trillions must be created to keep the system functional, risk assets do not need hype to rise. They need math. And the math points toward a powerful expansion phase still ahead. >> So, are we at a top, which is the thing that people ble on all day on Twitter. We're the top of the cycle. We can't be because we're not topping in the ISM. In fact, we've not even gone above 50 yet. So, we've not had economic expansion. Main Street has been struggling. They need rates to come lower. They need fiscal stimulus. And that's all to come. So, probabilistically speaking, the business cycle lies ahead of us, and it should be quite rapid. So, when we start looking at forecasting models of the business cycle, here's the interest rate model. uh that suggests to us that the
13:12 economy strengthens fast uh and quite dramatically in the next six to nine months. So that's good for altcoin season, that's good for crypto, that's good for all risk assets. Another way of looking at it is central banks, the number of them who are easing, that leads the business cycle obviously because they're cutting interest rates. So that tells us we've got a strong cycle still ahead of us. The one for us that matters the most is our financial conditions index. That's driven by um that's driven by rates, the dollar and commodity prices. And this chart has been very very useful in predicting where everything goes. And it tells us in 9 months time the ISM should be at 57. And we don't think the
14:00 um financial conditions index is done yet. another leg lower in the dollar, another leg lower in rates, and what we get is an extension of the cycle out further than nine months. So again, this is a very good indicator, but we can add to this by thinking about liquidity in Bitcoin. Why does all this matter? Well, because the correlation of the two things of total liquidity in Bitcoin are extremely high. In fact, the correlation is 90%. Statistically, that is absurdly highly correlated. When you look at the NASDAQ, it is even more absurdly highly correlated. It's 97 12% correlated with
14:47 money printing. So, money printing is the story that drives this. And then network adoption is what drives the outperformance. One of the loudest narratives online right now is that the cycle has already topped. Raul Pal dismisses that idea by going straight to the data that actually defines cycle peaks. The most important signal is the ISM which tracks whether the real economy is expanding or contracting. At major market tops, ISM is not only above 50, it is rolling over from elevated levels. That has not happened. In fact, ISM has not even crossed 50 yet. That means the economy is not in expansion. Main Street is still under pressure. Growth remains uneven. And when the real economy is
15:32 weak, policymakers do not tighten. They ease. That easing has not fully arrived yet, which is precisely why calling a top here makes little sense. Raul then layers in forward-looking indicators. Interest rate models suggest the economy accelerates rapidly over the next 6 to9 months. Central bank easing cycles already point in the same direction. Historically, the number of central banks cutting rates leads the business cycle. When that number rises, growth tends to follow. The most powerful signal in Raul's framework is the financial conditions index. It combines interest rates, the dollar, and commodity prices into a single measure. This index has repeatedly proven effective at forecasting where markets are headed. According to the model, financial conditions are still
16:18 loosening, not tightening. Another leg lower in rates and another leg lower in the dollar would extend the cycle even further. When projected forward, this model points to ISM reaching the high50s within roughly 9 months. That environment has historically been ideal for crypto and broader risk assets. Liquidity accelerates. Capital rotates outward. Volatility expands upward instead of downward. This is why Raul sees the next phase as fast, not slow. Once conditions flip, markets rarely move gradually. They rush to repric what they missed. And the final confirmation comes from the asset that responds most cleanly to liquidity itself. At the center of Raul Pal's entire framework is one relationship that
17:03 dwarfs all others. Total liquidity and Bitcoin move together with an almost uncomfortable degree of precision. The correlation sits near 90%. Statistically, that is extraordinary. It tells us that Bitcoin is not driven by narratives or headlines in the long run. It is driven by money entering the system. The comparison becomes even more revealing when looking at technology stocks. The NASDAQ shows an even higher correlation to money creation, approaching 97%. That reinforces the idea that modern risk assets are expressions of liquidity first and stories second. When money is printed, assets repric. When it contracts, they stall. Bitcoin sits at the intersection of this dynamic. It is both a liquidity sponge and a network adoption story. Liquidity drives the broad direction.
17:50 Adoption determines outperformance. That is why Bitcoin tends to lead early followed by Ethereum and then the wider digital asset market as confidence expands. This is also why the long-term projection matters so much. If digital assets are on a path toward tens of trillions in market value, interim drawdowns are noise inside a structural expansion. Liquidity cycles dictate the tempo, but network growth dictates the destination. Raul's conclusion is not about predicting a specific top or bottom. It is about recognizing that the final phase has not occurred yet. The refinancing wave is still ahead. Interest costs still need to be monetized. Financial conditions are still easing and the adoption curve is still climbing. When those forces align, repricing does not happen politely. It
18:36 happens violently and quickly. For investors who understand this framework, the question is not whether volatility will return. It is whether they position before the largest liquidity wave of the cycle arrives. Anyway guys, that's all we have for today. Thanks for watching and I'll see you all in the next
