0:00 So what does this mean? So given this convergence, we can actually predict certain events that will happen over the next two to four years. Okay? Because all the major powers want these things to happen together. All right. So let's look at some quick predictions that professor Jang Shu Chin has been outlining in his recent analysis. First prediction of course is that the United States will experience a major financial reset because this financial reset will trigger the collapse of the dollar-based system. And what does the dollar collapse do? It creates massive social instability. Right? A lot of middle class families are going to lose their savings in this transition. And this is
0:45 going to create widespread protests. then America will have no choice but to implement digital currency controls and this will create the recipe for a surveillance state in America. Another thing that will happen is because you collapse the dollar you will essentially end American global hegemony and then the financial center of gravity which has been in New York and London for the past century will then transfer over to Asia. What's happening with this transition is that the economies of the Western Alliance are being restructured and that's part of the plan because for the multipolar world to achieve its vision, it needs to redistribute economic power away from the Atlantic powers and into the Asian sphere.
1:33 So another way of saying this is that Western financial dominance is basically finished. The intention is to devalue their currencies and make them share power. Right? The second thing we can expect is that China will make its move on Taiwan within this window because you want to use this period of American distraction to resolve territorial disputes as much as possible. So, China will move on Taiwan and the United States actually will not intervene militarily because the cost of intervention would be too high for an already weakened economy. All right. Um, again, the South China Sea will be essentially closed to American naval operations.
2:19 And then you have the rise of the Asian economic block, the rise of Asia. Why is this important? because um you need the global economy to shift eastward for the new world order to emerge right so you don't mind if actually China wins this confrontation because by winning this confrontation China will activate its role as the new economic superpower and this is important for the global reset because in the transition to multipolarity people are expecting that China and Russia will form the core of the new power structure and they're expecting this block to challenge American American dominance directly. Together they will march toward a new global architecture. Number three is that in Europe you will achieve the complete fragmentation of
3:06 the European Union and the collapse of NATO unity. So the fragmentation of the EU and the collapse of NATO are not the same thing guys. EU fragmentation is just basically the economic and political disintegration that happens when member states can no longer agree on fundamental policies. NATO collapse is a military realignment. Okay. Based on nations recognizing that American security guarantees are no longer credible. So um what will happen is that um Europe will use this crisis period to splinter into competing power centers and then what will happen is that Eastern European nations will then start to pivot toward Russia and China in order
3:52 to secure their economic futures. So think of countries like Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia. Well, they'll probably formalize their relationships with Moscow and Beijing because that is where the economic opportunities will rest. Um, so postatlantic Europe, um, then you will have, um, India positioning itself as the swing power and then, um, cementing its role as the mediator between east and west. Basically, I know we're saying this, but it is possible that um India leverages this transition period to extract maximum concessions from both sides and then emerges as the true winner of this realignment. But then you're like, wait a minute, India is supposedly aligned with the
4:38 West through the Quad. Well, we can also expect the dissolution of these old alliance structures, the end of cold war era partnerships, basically. So this transition period, it's not just about economic reset. This transition is also meant to achieve a complete restructuring of global alliances to destroy the American alliance system so that the multipolar powers can achieve their vision of shared global governance. That means the destruction of American unipolarity. So I will discuss the India situation later on as as we go along. But what what I'm trying to show you is that just by okay analyzing the most extreme visions of different power centers and
5:24 their strategic doctrines, you can then from this analysis pick out points in which they agree and and at these points you can figure out then how they will manipulate current crises to make certain predictions about how the world will transform about how the global order will restructure itself in the next 2 to four years. So this is called the law of great power convergence. It gives us tremendous insight into why things are turning out the way they are. Because again I keep on saying this but purely from an economic perspective, purely from a rational actor perspective, this deliberate weakening of the west makes no sense. But if you look at it from a grand strategy perspective, then it makes perfect
6:09 sense. Any questions? Yes. But I think like if we look uh into the relationship between America and China, um I think Biden and now the current administration is trying to contain China the same way that they contain the Soviet Union, but it's failing, which um led China to accelerate its own development. So I think this could also explain things in a traditional geopolitical way, but not necessarily as coordinated strategy. All right, that's a great point in that listen, there's an explanation, which is that American policy makers are just incompetent. They're using outdated playbooks. They had success with the Soviet Union. They go after China and they think it's the same thing. And now
6:55 they're losing. And because they're losing um they are just making it worse with more sanctions. That's true. And um if this explanation is true, then what will happen? What we can expect to happen is that America recognizes its mistake and pivots to cooperation. That's what what we can expect. Um and if if the US does pivot, then you're right. So we can expect but sorry. Um the question then is what happens in the next few months. All right. What you need to understand is this. Um great power competition isn't that simple. Once you start this kind of confrontation, you can't just end it. All right. So let me explain very really quickly why. So you have China and the main thing the main advantage that China
7:42 has over the United States is that America's economy is completely financialized and China's is based on production because America is just consuming and China is the factory. So China can withstand economic pressure. It can keep manufacturing and America can't can't sustain itself without Chinese goods. Before they thought these sanctions could China, but now you recognize these sanctions are actually hurting America's consumers more. All right. So, um the other thing that China did was diversify away from the dollar. They diversified their reserves. And this is important because China then um trades with the global south and settles in yuan or local currencies. So, China basically has
8:28 created an alternative system uh in order just to survive American pressure. Now, let's just say the US leadership is like, you know what, screw this. This is a stupid policy. Confronting China is stupid. We're going to cooperate. What happens now? What happens is that China says to America, "Hey, man, you sanctioned us. You destroyed our tech companies. You cut off our access to chips. You have to pay compensation." Right. Also, hey man, now we control the global supply chains. So if you want to um access critical goods, you have to accept our terms. You have to play by our rules. Right? So all this economic leverage that America had before, it's going to America um to maintain US
9:15 dominance. Now where does it go? It goes to China. Right? That's a lot of power, man. We're talking about reshaping the entire global economy. And what will China use with this power? It will use this leverage to rebuild the international order. So in 5 10 years, this is going to be a complete transformation where now China is able to set standards, control technology really fast. And as a result, what's going to happen? What's going to happen is that United States loses its primacy. China becomes the leading economy and shapes the entire global system right now. What now? America still has military superiority. And so what's
10:00 going to happen is that America and China will sign some kind of accommodation. But this accommodation won't be between equals. America goes into decline. It doesn't get the same terms anymore. What's going to happen to American living standards? They're going to collapse. Why? Because the entire American lifestyle is based on cheap imports, on dollar privilege, on being able to print money, on debt that other countries finance, right? So the question then is, can the Americans just accept this decline? The answer is no, they can't because if they accept decline, their population is going to revolt and the elites are going to lose power anyway. So you're better off trying to maintain dominance through
10:46 confrontation than accepting a managed decline that leads to domestic revolution. Right? So you're right in that it's possible that American leadership is just incompetent. Doesn't matter if this confrontation was intentional or accidental. You have the same outcome. And and strangely enough, the strange thing is this outcome that you have matches and aligns with these different strategic visions that major powers have for restructuring the world. Does that make sense? Good. All right. Any more questions? All right. So, we'll continue this next week, guys. Okay.
