Standard Deviation Projections - ICT Concepts

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สรุปย่อ

วิดีโอนี้อธิบายถึงวิธีการใช้ Standard Deviation Projections เพื่อค้นหาเป้าหมาย, พื้นที่ที่คาดว่าจะเกิด Retracement หรือ Reversal และ Confluence กับกลยุทธ์ที่มีอยู่ โดยเน้นที่การตั้งค่า Fibonacci, การระบุจุด Anchor, การคาดการณ์ Retracement/Reversal และการวิเคราะห์ Top-Down

  • การตั้งค่า Fibonacci ที่ถูกต้องช่วยให้การคาดการณ์แม่นยำยิ่งขึ้น
  • การระบุ Manipulation Leg เป็นสิ่งสำคัญในการ Anchor Fibonacci
  • การใช้ PD Arrays ร่วมกับ Standard Deviations ช่วยเพิ่มความแม่นยำในการเทรด

บทนำ

วิดีโอนี้จะกล่าวถึง Standard Deviation Projections ซึ่งสามารถใช้เพื่อค้นหาเป้าหมาย, พื้นที่ที่คาดว่าจะเกิด Retracement หรือ Reversal รวมถึง Confluence กับกลยุทธ์ที่มีอยู่ โดยจะเน้นที่การตั้งค่า Fibonacci, การระบุพื้นที่ที่ควรมองหา Retracement หรือ Reversal, สิ่งที่คาดหวังหลังจากถึง Max Expansion และการจับคู่กับ PD Arrays และการซ้อนทับกับ Projections ที่มีอยู่

การตั้งค่า

การตั้งค่า Fibonacci Retracement Tool บน TradingView ประกอบด้วยระดับ 1, 0, -1, -2, -2.5 และ -4 โดยมีการตั้งค่าสี, ความโปร่งใสของพื้นหลัง, ตำแหน่งของค่า (ด้านซ้าย, ตรงกลาง) และขนาดตัวอักษร (10)

การวางตำแหน่ง Fibonacci

เมื่อราคาเกิด Smart Money Reversal หรือ Reversal Pattern ให้มองหา Manipulation Leg ซึ่งคือ Swing ที่กวาด Liquidity ก่อนที่จะเปลี่ยน State of Delivery หรือ Shift Structure จากนั้นใช้ Fibonacci Retracement Tool โดย Anchor จากจุดต่ำสุดไปยังจุดสูงสุดของ Manipulation Leg

ฝึกการวางตำแหน่ง

มีการยกตัวอย่างการระบุ Manipulation Leg และการวาง Fibonacci Retracement Tool ในสถานการณ์ต่างๆ เช่น เมื่อราคาทำ New High ก่อนที่จะทำ New Low หรือเมื่อราคากวาด Liquidity ก่อนที่จะ Displacement ลง

Retracement / Reversal

เมื่อราคาถึงระดับ -2 ถึง -2.5 Standard Deviations ให้มองหา Retracement หรือ Reversal หากราคา Displacement และ Close ผ่านพื้นที่นี้ ให้มองหา Max Expansion หรือ -4 Standard Deviation เมื่อถึง Max Expansion ให้ Mark Discount และ Premium ของ Leg นี้ และมองหาราคา Retrace ไปที่ Equilibrium นอกจากนี้ การจับคู่ Standard Deviations กับ PD Arrays สามารถเพิ่มความแม่นยำได้

ตัวอย่าง

มีการยกตัวอย่างการ Mark พื้นที่ -2 ถึง -2.5 และ -4 Standard Deviations และดูว่ามี PD Arrays ใดที่อยู่ในพื้นที่เหล่านี้ เช่น Cell Side Liquidity หรือ Order Block นอกจากนี้ยังมีการยกตัวอย่างการใช้ Manipulation Leg หลายๆ ขา เพื่อหา Confluence

การวิเคราะห์ Top Down

มีการยกตัวอย่างการวิเคราะห์ Top-Down โดยเริ่มจาก Daily Chart เพื่อหารูปแบบการกลับตัว จากนั้นลด Time Frame ลงมาที่ Hourly Chart เพื่อหา Manipulation Leg และใช้ Fibonacci Retracement Tool เพื่อหาเป้าหมาย นอกจากนี้ยังมีการลด Time Frame ลงมาอีก เพื่อหา Entry ที่แม่นยำยิ่งขึ้น โดยใช้ PD Arrays เป็นเป้าหมาย

บทสรุป

วิดีโอสรุปว่าการใช้ Standard Deviation Projections ร่วมกับ PD Arrays และการวิเคราะห์ Top-Down สามารถช่วยในการเทรดได้อย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ โดยมีการวางแผนที่จะทำวิดีโอเกี่ยวกับการรวม Accumulation, Manipulation และ Distribution กับ Standard Deviations ในอนาคต

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0:04 [Music] how's it going everyone this video is going to be over standard deviation projections standard deviation projections can be used to find Targets areas to expect retracements or reversals as well as a Confluence to an existing strategy this video will be focused on the settings of the Fibonacci which price Lake to project which areas to look for retracement or reversal what to expect after hitting Max expansion as well as pairing with PD arrays and overlapping existing projections so let's get into it so the first thing we are going to go over are the FIB settings so if you see here we are using a fib retracement tool on trading View and the settings we have here are 1 0 -1

0:49 -2 -2.5 and -4 and if you specifically want to see the color I'm using it is right here and my background is very transparent I have my values on the left side in the Middle with a font size of 10 so now that we have our settings let's get into how to Anchor this Fibonacci retracement tool so here's an example of what the Fibonacci tool will look like once it is projected out however where do I anchor this Fibonacci tool to get these projections and that is what we are going to go over next so when price creates a smart money reversal or a reversal pattern so for example here price is trending up makes a high low higher high lower low I'm going to look for the manipulation leg and that manipulation leg is the swing

1:35 that swept liquidity before changing the state of delivery or shifting structure so for example here this low to this high that swept liquidity that will be the manipulation leg I then take my projection tool or my Fibonacci retracement tool and project this out such as so so let's get into the charts and look at a few examples of projecting these out before we get into the rest of the PDF so here we have price action trending up let's see if we get a smart money reversal and here you can see we get an aggressive price action out and then back into the range if you've seen my last video on accumulation manipulation and distribution so where is the price leg that made the new high before the

2:21 new low and so from this low to this high that would be the manipulation leg and so projecting that out from our high to our low low you can see we get our projection put on the screen here so let's go to a few more examples of just projecting this out so here we have price kind of consolidating let's see what happens so we get an aggressive move out and then back into the range changing the state of delivery so where is the manipulation leg or the leg that made the new low before the new high so from right here at this High to this low that would be the manipulation leg so projecting that from our low to our high we have our projection so here we are we have price trending

3:10 up and there we go we get a sweep and then displacement down so take a moment where is this manipulation l so you can see price from this low made a new high before displacing down so our manipulation leg is from this high to this low or from this low to this high so then projecting it out I go from this high to this low and have my projection so now that we have practiced identifying that manipulation leg and projecting it out let's go back to the PDF and see what we are looking for in these projections so here we are back in the PDF and although there are many ways to use these projections we're going to focus on the -2 to -2.5 and the -4 as

3:56 areas of Interest so when price reaches the -2 to -2 .5 standard deviations I'm looking for either a retracement or a reversal from this area if price displaces and closes through this area then I'm looking for the max expansion or the4 standard deviation once hitting Max expansion what I can do is Mark out a discount and premium of this leg here and look for price to retrace to an equilibrium the next thing I want to talk about is pairing these standard deviations with PD arrays for example here the negative one has a fair value Gap lining up with it and then the -2 to -2.5 has cell-side liquidity resting between them I personally love to use these projections and then see if it lines up with equal highs or a fair value Gap or some sort of PD array so

4:42 let's go back into the charts and look over these Concepts so here we are back with our first example let's go ahead and Mark out these areas and then look to see if any PD arrays line up with them so marking out the 2 to 2.5 standard deviations as well as the fourth standard deviation let's see if any PD arrays up in these areas so if you notice we have cell side liquidity resting here as well as here because this is just right above the -2 to 2.5 standard deviations I consider this the low hanging fruit then we can Mark out the cells side liquidity resting within this area here so let's see how this plays out and another thing you can do is when

5:27 we get another manipulation leg such as here we can also project that out as well and get matching confluences so you can see how the negative one here overlaps with the -2 to -2.5 and the -2 to -2.5 here overlaps with the4 standard deviations so let's go ahead and continue these out and see what happens as you can see we hit this low hanging fruit and then get a little retracement and here you can see we don't quite take those lows but we do reach into the middle of this area and now if you've noticed we are into our second example as we have a manipulation leg here and so let's go ahead and project that out and so now if we are

6:14 looking what do we see well we see we have a -2 to -2.5 here go ahead and Mark that out and then we have our -4 right there are there any PD rays that line up in here well we do have this order block here if we Mark out the mean threshold that it'll be right around the second standard deviation we' went ahead and marked that out and then we have all these equal highs resting above here with the fourth standard deviation so let's go ahead and Mark those out as well so let's let this play out and there we go we reach into that fourth standard deviation so let's clean up the chart a little bit here so letting this continue to play

7:05 out and there you see we get to our third example so let's go ahead and Mark out this manipulation leg once again and project it out let's see what happens here you can see we hit our ne1 standard deviation and currently getting a retracement let's see if we reach into the -2 to -2.5 or the four standard deviation and do we have any PD arrays lining up with those well looking left we have a fair value Gap right here so we can go ahead and Mark that out and generally with a fair value Gap like this I'd be looking for the near side here as we have equal lows we can also Mark out the consequent encroachment of this and then the next thing looking left our four standard deviation lines up pretty closely with these lows right here so those would be my two objectives for this Market maker

7:51 cell model here you can see we reach into the -2 to -2. standard deviations we get a retracement here and then finally we come down and hit our for standard deviation here below this low so let's go ahead and zoom out here and see how this all worked out and you can see we still have some projections down here so let's skip ahead and see if Price ever reaches those lows and you can see here price does sweep those lows we still have this four standard deviation which is aligned with R2 to

8:37 2.5 right in this area and there we go and if you notice we have another manipulation L here that we can project out and you can see we hit into our2 to 2.5 standard deviations there now price is starting to Trend up looking where is our manipulation leg right here so I can project this out we have our 2 to 2.5 right here and now we are in that 2 to 2.5 standard deviations so sorry for the little bit of a mess here let me clean this up so I hope in this example you saw that I can project manipulation legs out to give me targets using PD arrays I

9:25 can add to those targets and then using multiple projections I can add to the Confluence for example when the -4 from one projection lines up with the -2 to -2.5 of another projection so let's take a look at one example of this going top down and how you can use it on multiple different time frames as well so here we are on inq daily chart and if you can see price wretch up into this daily fair value gap on a Tuesday made a reversal and then the next day expanded lower and displ Below these lows anticipating a classic cell week with a Tuesday High I'm anticipating Thursday to continue lower so with that idea in mind let's go ahead and drop down to the hourly chart so here we are on the hourly chart and this is the daily fair value Gap here where is the manipulation on this time

10:11 frame into that daily fair value Gap well here is the high into that fair value Gap where is the swing or the low that made that high right here so from here to here that is our manipulation so projecting that out from high to low let's go ahead and zoom out here so marking out Thursday right here to right here we could anticipate price reaching into the 2 to 2.5 standard deviations right here and another thing you can do is Mark out the consequent encroachment of these standard deviations so if we're anticipating price to move lower into this area let's drop down to a lower time frame and see what happens so down here on the 15-minute chart we'll go ahead and get into London session we're going to go ahead and Mark

10:57 out our midnight open here and let's see what happens you can see Asia consolidation London moves aggressively lower and then back into the range accumulation manipulation so anticipating distribution what do we have over here on the left side that is interesting well we have equal highs resting here so let's see what happens here you can see we just sweep a low here continue higher and there we reach into those equal highs now since London is retracing in terms of the weekly profile I'm anticipating New York to move lower into this 2 to 2.5 standard deviation area so let's drop down to a f minute chart so as we near New York open

11:44 let's see what happens and here on New York you can see we get a big wick up and Wick down so let's drop down to a lower time frame to see what that looks like so down here on the 2-minute nothing really interesting towards the downside yet but I am going to Mark out this order block here and see if it forms so here we get displacement below this order block and this Wick here so looking at this price action here where is our manipulation so you can see this is the leg that made the new high and where is the low of that leg right there so that is our manipulation so projecting that out from our high to our low

12:30 there we have our projection now the next thing we want to look for is do we have any PD arrays lining up with those projections so looking left what do we have resting just above -2 standard deviation we have our London low so that would ideally be the target for this as it is a low hanging fruit so let's Zoom back in here and see if we can find an entry now the first entry I would be looking for is a retest of this order block here my stop on this high and then I'd be looking to Target those London lows so let's see if that tags me in it does and we start to get our distribution lower and you can see we leave equal lows here and we start to get a

13:15 retracement so marking out these other up close candles here let's see if those provide a reaction it does and then we go in we hit our London lows so just to review what happened here we have a classic cell week so anticipating expansion into Thursday we drop down to the hourly chart we find the manipulation on the hourly chart and projected out which gives us our overall Target of this yellow box here which let's see if that hits and it does reach into there and the consequent encroachment of that now the next thing I did was drop down into the lower time frame look at the daily profile and then find an entry targeting those London lows now I hope you found

14:01 this video helpful if you did please like And subscribe I am planning on my next video combining my previous video with this video so an accumulation manipulation and distribution combined with standard deviations if that is something that interests you please let me know in the comment section below and other than that I'll see you guys next week have a great one

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