Is Shashi Tharoor Joining the BJP? The Political Signals Explained | Faye D'Souza

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简要总结

本视频分析了沙希·塔鲁尔是否会离开国大党并加入印度人民党(BJP)的可能性,以及这对于BJP来说意味着什么。重点包括:

  • 塔鲁尔赞扬总理引发国大党内部不满。
  • 塔鲁尔在喀拉拉邦的影响力对BJP具有吸引力。
  • 国大党似乎对塔鲁尔的需求有所降低。
  • 塔鲁尔的意识形态独立性及其潜在的政治选择。

介绍

视频提出了一个有趣的政治问题:沙希·塔鲁尔是否会离开国大党并加入印度人民党(BJP)?过去几周,这个问题变得更加引人关注。视频汇集了所有信息,并对每种可能的情况进行了分析,如果BJP真的将沙希·塔鲁尔纳入其政党,这将是一个转折点。

塔鲁尔的争议性言论和国大党的反应

在“辛德行动”之后,塔鲁尔代表印度政府出访世界各地,宣传印度的观点,这引发了他是否代表政府或BJP和总理的质疑,并受到国大党内部的批评。他后来在《印度教徒报》上发表文章,赞扬总理的活力和全球影响力,这与国大党批评总理及其政府外交政策的立场相悖,导致国大党内部的不满加剧。塔鲁尔表示,“辛德行动”后的外交活动是国家决心和有效沟通的时刻。总理办公室的Twitter账号分享了这篇文章,并感谢塔鲁尔的评论。国大党主席批评塔鲁尔“莫迪优先,国家其次”。

塔鲁尔的推文和国大党内部的紧张关系

塔鲁尔发布了一条推文,似乎暗示他可能会离开国大党。国大党议员对此做出了回应,警告他注意潜在的“猎鹰、秃鹫和老鹰”。塔鲁尔在一次辩论中表示,RSS已经变得更加现代化,这进一步加剧了国大党内部的紧张关系。

塔鲁尔的重要性

塔鲁尔之所以重要,不仅因为他能赢得城市中产阶级和英语受众的良好评价,还因为喀拉拉邦对BJP来说非常重要,BJP希望在喀拉拉邦打开局面。塔鲁尔多次赢得蒂鲁沃纳塔普拉姆的席位,这对国大党来说非常重要。然而,国大党在没有塔鲁尔帮助的情况下赢得了喀拉拉邦的补选,这让他们更有信心,即使塔鲁尔离开,他们也能继续赢得并保住喀拉拉邦。

塔鲁尔缺席竞选活动和与甘地家族的关系

塔鲁尔表示,他没有受邀参加补选的竞选活动。他曾担任议会外交事务常务委员会的委员。塔鲁尔从外交任务回来后,曾要求与甘地家族会面,但尚未获得安排。

国大党内部的批评和塔鲁尔的独立性

塔鲁尔公开受到喀拉拉邦国大党人士的批评。一位资深国大党领导人表示,塔鲁尔赞扬总理令人厌恶。塔鲁尔不是传统的领导人,他曾多次反抗。他曾称赞LDF政府的发展举措,并批评了总理最初对乌克兰战争的立场,但后来又收回了批评。

塔鲁尔的过往和与BJP的关系

塔鲁尔曾是23名致信索尼娅·甘地的资深国大党人士之一,他们表示国大党存在严重问题,需要进行变革。在国大党主席选举中,塔鲁尔与甘地家族的选择竞争。塔鲁尔似乎正在与BJP拉近关系,许多批评国大党并赞扬BJP的账号都在赞扬沙希·塔鲁尔。

塔鲁尔的潜在未来和BJP的战略

虽然塔鲁尔没有宣布加入BJP的具体计划,但分析人士认为,国大党在沙希·塔鲁尔问题上错失了一步。塔鲁尔是一位知识分子,意识形态上通常是中间派。他可能为BJP带来全球视野、知识可信度和精致,从而在城市受过教育的圈子中赢得更多声誉,尤其是在国际上。他对BJP在喀拉拉邦可能很有用,因为他受到喀拉拉邦所有群体的欢迎。

国大党与塔鲁尔的困境和BJP的潜在优势

国大党不太能容忍独立的声音。塔鲁尔不是一个忠诚的人,他在喀拉拉邦的竞争对手变得更加强大。甘地家族和沙希·塔鲁尔之间的关系似乎出现了裂痕。BJP是否会欢迎他,以便在喀拉拉邦赢得更大的立足点?BJP往往有针对每个邦的20年计划,并在每次邦选举或Loka选举前努力增加其在没有存在的邦的影响力。

塔鲁尔的潜在情景

塔鲁尔留在国大党,利用他的平台评论外交政策和进步的回应。或者,他加入BJP,BJP在象征意义上和全球范围内利用他,并利用他的声明来获得知识支持和羞辱国大党。塔鲁尔正在保持开放的选择,并发出意识形态独立的信号。他越来越成为国大党的眼中钉,也是BJP在针对甘地家族的光学战中的工具。

结论

国大党与沙希·塔鲁尔的关系似乎已经破裂。他是否有可能离开国大党?他是否有可能离开国大党并加入BJP?如果他这样做了,BJP将如何在他们的队伍中为他这样有才能的人找到空间?

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0:00 Is Shashi Tarur going to leave the Congress and join the BJP? It's an interesting political question and it's gotten more interesting over the last couple of weeks. So, we've got all the information together in this video and a sort of analysis of every possible scenario and why this would be a turning point for the BJP if they are in fact including Shashit Tarur in their party. Remember before we go further, some of the information from this video is actually sort of backroom information coming out of Delhi. Also remember to like, share, subscribe and sign up for our membership if you can to support us financially. You can also use the super chat feature. Now you'll remember after operation Synindhur Tar was part of the delegation representing the government of India traveling across the world putting forward India's point of view.

0:47 Was he representing government of India or was he representing the BJP and the prime minister? This is where there was a lot of criticism and he got a lot of criticism from his own party. they were jibes aimed at him by Congress leaders for taking his stand. He later also you know when he was heading those uh delegations a lot of them said that he was he was basically talking on behalf of the prime minister there was some confusion about the fact that the Congress party said we didn't put him forward we didn't recommend his name the BJP picked him uh Tarur said hey if you don't if you didn't recognize my talent so there was a lot of you know uh cold shouldering between the congress and tar before he started traveling and while he was traveling but the real eyebrow raise came from after he came back because he

1:32 wrote an article that was published in the Hindu on the 23rd of June in which he praised the prime minister. He heaped praise on the prime minister. He effectively said that the prime minister's energy dynamism and willingness to engage has remained a prime asset for India on the global stage but deserved better backing or greater backing. Now this u praise for the prime minister has come at a point when the congress party has been consistently criticizing the prime minister and his government over the foreign policy and saying that India's diplomacy is being shattered. This is the Congress's stand and the country stands isolated globally and at that point Shashitaru who's considered you know an expert on diplomacy and international affairs because of his

2:18 career with the UN is actually you know praising the prime minister for his foreign policy and that really led to a lot of you know irk in the Congress party at widening cracks between him and the leadership of the Congress party. Now Tarur said the diplomatic outreach following operation Sindur was a moment of national resolve and effective communication. After that the prime minister's office's Twitter handle so the PM's own Twitter handle shared the article and appreciated Tarur for his comments. Now when that article came out Malik Jun of the Congress party or two days later he was asked have you seen the article and he said I can't read English very well. Tarud's language is very good and that's why we've made him congress working committee uh member. I want to say people of the opposition together that they are with the army

3:05 that is fighting. We are with the country and that is paramount. We said country first party later but some people are saying Modi first country later what can we do about that? So that was actually if you consider K is the president of the Congress party that's sharp criticism coming from him. Um after that Tarud put out a tweet uh in which he said don't ask for permission to fly the wings are yours and the sky belongs to no one. Now this was in reference to Subanchu Shukla who is the astronaut currently in space but everybody started to see this as perhaps Tar's dig at the Congress party or a suggestion that he might fly if he chooses to. The question is will tar fly

3:50 right and what did that actually mean a day after that manikam tagor congresses whip at lok sabha actually said don't ask for permission to fly birds don't need clearance but you must watch the skies for hawks vultures and eagles who are always hunting and to drive home he shared a picture of hunters in the sky now to add fuel to fire tarur after that on the 29th of June in another debate he basically said that you know during During the adoption of the constitution, uh Golgar of the RSS had said that the constitution doesn't have enough manuspruti in it. But right now the RSS has moved away from those uh you know from those days and basically suggested that the RSS had become more modern. Again this made a lot of people in the

4:35 Congress sit up and say is he now speaking on behalf of the RSS on June 24. Now this is a really important thing right why is Tar so important? Tarun is important not just because he uh you know a lot he basically pulls a lot of good opinion from the urban uh middle class the English speaking audience people respect his opinion they respect his grace also Kerala and Kerala is a really important state because BJP wants to nicely open its account in Kerala it's trying really hard and Tarur has won uh the seat in Thirwanapuram repeatedly it's one that he holds for 16 years and uh it's something that's really interesting you know for the Congress to hold on to that but on the

5:21 24th of June the Congress actually wrestled the Namur assembly seat in Kerala making you know they won that bipole without any help from Shashit Tarur because Shashitur at one point was traveling and then when he came back he was not invited to come in campaign so he was not asked to campaign and they won nevertheless a bipole in you know in Kerala and this apparently from what I'm hearing has given the Congress party a certain amount of confidence that they don't really need him that with their local partner that they can continue to win and hold Kerala even if leaves now this is a big thing right so when um on the 19th of June when he was asked why he

6:07 didn't campaign for the bip poll he basically said I wasn't invited by the party but that's all Right. He said first of all I was gone for much of the time on the diplomatic mission and when I came back there was no missed call from the leadership saying that I should come and campaign but he did I must say come in and then um he chaired a committee of the parliamentary standing committee on external affairs in Delhi. So he is taking part. He stated that Congress workers including people from his constituency in Thiruanandapuram have been working very hard in those campaigns. He said, "My close relations with the party have seen me through four elections in my own constituencies. Congress party workers have been by my side everywhere." So this could this have given the Congress party the confidence to say, "Hey, we don't really need him as much as we thought we did."

6:54 Because what I'm picking up again this is sort of a backroom conversation is that when Shashit Taru came back from his diplomatic mission apparently he requested a meeting with the Gandhi to sort of put forward his side and he hasn't gotten that appointment yet. Uh this is what the Delhi circles are saying. Now Tarur has also said when he was asked that there tends to be occasional differences between the party top brass and these issues will be resolved internally and he remains committed to the party um you know values. He said these can be sorted out in closed door conversations. I don't see any reason to discuss them. Now apart from that he is now being openly criticized by Congress people in his own state. Senior Congress leader K Murli Daran on the 24th of June basically uh

7:40 said that Taru's praise of the prime minister was disgusting and I'm quoting here he said he's a member of the working committee it's quite disgusting that a member of the working committee continues to praise a political opponent of the Congress but here's the interesting thing about Shashitaru he's not a traditional sort of leader where he's just you know held up the card for the Gandhi which is what the Congress leaders tend to be uh he's rebelled multiple times uh in opinion in in his stand and that's just the kind of person he is. Now I'll remind you in uh in February 2025 he actually hailed the LDF government's development initiatives uh following which the Congress high command summoned leaders to Delhi from Kerala and uh that caused a bit of a problem. He had also u

8:26 remember when the Ukraine Russia war had happened he criticized the prime minister initially saying you can't be on both sides and hug both sides but then later he said and I'm quoting I'm wiping egg off my face because I had criticized India's position but the policy of the prime minister who can hug both the president of Ukraine and the president in Moscow two weeks apart has been accepted and that he's also said that the prime minister's visit to the US was very good. So he has been actually praising the prime minister on various points. Remember 2020, this is a while ago. He was part of a group of 23 senior congress people who wrote to Sonia Gandhi saying that there are deep problems in the congress and there has to be a change after which there was an election for the Congress president and

9:12 Malik Kar was elected to be Congress president but Shashitu ran against him and at that time they raised a few eyebrows because Kar was obviously the Gandhi pick and he was going to win unanimously except that Taru decided to throw his hat in the ring. Now while Tarur seems to be warming up to the BJP and if you spend some time on Twitter you'll see or X you'll see that a lot of the traditional handles uh that criticize the Congress party and praise the BJP are currently praising Shashit Tarur and sharing his videos and he's going viral in these sort of circles. It seems like there's a case building for him and the days when um you know the prime minister referred to his wife as a 50 cr rupa girlfriend seems to have been

9:58 a thing of a past at this point. So let me now take a look at where this is possibly heading right um while he has said you know we are going to discuss this and this is not u you know something that is on the cards right now there doesn't seem to be any concrete plan that he's announced to join the BJP but analysts in Delhi like Nij Chri for example who has been tracking the Congress party since the days of Indra Gandhi has said that the Congress is definitely missing stepped when it came to Shashi Tarur because they should have recommended his name for um you know the uh delegation to begin with once his name came out they should have not dissed him in public like that and they

10:44 could have retained him quite well uh let's take a look at who he is right like I told you he's an intellectual he's often ideologically centrist uh he's been critical of the RSS but he's not a traditional congressman in the way that Congress party hardcore our leaders tend to be. Would he be valuable to the BJP? Here's an interesting question. So, the BJP tends to have more grassroot type of leaders who sound very close to people of the soil. But Tarun could be global facing. He could be he could bring in a certain intellectual credibility. He could bring in sophistication and polish that maybe uh will gain the BJP more credibility in urban educated circles especially

11:30 internationally. Uh he'd definitely be useful to the BJP in Kerala like I said um you know they don't have a face that specifically remember Kerala tends to have um a large Christian Kerala has a large Christian population has a large Muslim population. Tarur is popular with all groups in in Kerala and this could actually help the BJP and if a man like Tarur play you know praises uh the prime minister it tends to make the prime minister seem u more universally liked across all quarters and this could be a good thing for the BJP. Now why is the Congress struggling with Tarur? Uh like I said the Congress doesn't tolerate independent voices that well. Tarur is not a loyalist. He has rivalries in

12:17 Kerala that have become stronger. So for example, K Murida, Vidi, Satishan, they see him as sort of elitist and not really a ground worker. So they'd be happy to have him sort of move on and um there is there seems to be a fracture right now in the relationship between the Gandhis and Shashitar and that might be playing out as well. So will the BJP welcome him in in order to win a larger foothold in Kerala and is it possible? Um remember Sur Goby's recent win Lok Sabha win from Tishu will give the BJP some confidence in Kerala and we know that the BJP tends to have 20-year plans on each state and they work very hard before every state election or any Loka

13:02 election to sort of increase their uh presence in states where they're not present. So Bengal for example, Kerala for example, they're working very hard on. So Tur would be an interesting asset for them in that. Um so let's take a look at scenarios. Tarur stays in the Congress party. He uses his platform to comment on you know foreign policy, diplomacy, progressive responses. But is the Congress likely to warm up to him, welcome him back and sort of heal that problem? We don't know. Scenario number two, he joins the BJP and the BJP uses him symbolically globally and uses his statements to a claim intellectual support and b embarrass the Congress um and uh is that more likely to be uh something that will

13:49 happen? We've seen various leaders switch sides when we thought that they wouldn't but they have and the BJP has found a place for them in its ranks. So is Shashita likely to be that one? He's keeping his options open right now. uh he's sending signals of ideological independence saying hey I'm on the congress I I in the team I agree with them but I have my own ideas and thoughts u and he's becoming more and more a thorn in the congress's sight and a tool for the BJP in its optics war against the Gandhi so it'll be very interesting to see this playing out but from the last time we looked at this whole thing it does seem like the congress's relationship with shajitaru has fractured far more the question is is he likely to leave the congress and do nothing. I don't think so. Is he likely to leave the Congress and join

14:34 the BJP? And how will that play out? And where will the BJP find room for a man with his talents in their ranks? That's the interesting thing to watch out for. So, leave me a comment in the comment section if you think he's going to join the BJP. I think the first half of that question, is he leaving the Congress is becoming more and more obvious. Is he going to join the BJP? And if he does, how will they use him effectively? Let me know.

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