Ten Takeaways from Election Results. Straight Bat with Rajdeep Sardesai।।

0:00 This is a victory for the BJP's relentless pursue of West Bengal. The purton that Mtab Banerjee promised 15 years ago was never fully translated into reality. In Tamil Nadu, it was more a sense of novelty. People wanted to experiment with something new. There is no left government left in India and the India alliance in particular. Is it at the end? >> The views expressed in this blog are hosted on my own website are strictly personal and do not reflect the views of any organization. Namaskar. Hello and welcome friends once again to Straight Bad where we are bringing you the Straight Bat special on the battle for the states. The results

0:45 are finally out. Forget all the exit polls. This has been a tectonic day in Indian politics again. Historic in more ways than one. So, I thought we'd do a straight bat here rather than wait for the weekend and bring you 10 quick takeaways from what has been a rather dramatic roller coaster day once again in Indian politics. Let's start first from what I am calling the biggest victory that Narendra Modi and Amit Sha have achieved in any Indian state since they took over Indian politics in 2014. Winning Bengal is quite incredible for a party like the BJP which remember in 2016 won barely three seats had just a few had a singledigit percentage of votes 2021 the BJP grew to 77 seats and

1:33 38% and this time they've crossed the 40% barrier but more importantly they're winning by a massive margin in West Bengal and thereby today you have a situation where the BJP is from the ran of Kut moving to the Bay of Bengal from Arab Saga to the Bay of Bengal and this is a big victory. So the first takeaway obviously is this is a victory for the BJP's relentless pursue of West Bengal. A party which constantly was looking to exploit any in the armor of uh the ruling establishment in Bengal has this time managed to do so largely through a heavy Hindu consolidation. 153 seats in West Bengal where the

2:20 Muslim population is less than 20%. So a large Hindu population. Guess what? BJP has won more than 130 of them. So the real dominance of the BJP has come through strong Hindu consolidation and it suggests a trend emerging across the country. We saw it in Maharashtra too where the BJP then through micromanagement, through its organizational muscle, through resources and yes through state power is able to focus on its winnable seats and then puts all its energies in it. It did so in 200 seats out of the 294 in Bengal and that effort has clearly paid off. So you've got to give credit for the BJP to use its election machine while questions also will of course be raised over the manner in which state machinery and the

3:06 establishment is used against a particular party. Which brings me to the second number that particular party Mab Banerjee's TMC 15 years have led to anti-inccumbonton that Mab Banerjee promised 15 years ago was never fully translated into reality over time. charges of corruption, charges of tolabazi, of crime, of extortion on the ground, of rise of these local daas, of a fear factor. And Maab Banerjee herself being accused of minority appeasement meant that it pushed Mta Banerjee's government on the back foot. And this time the BJP was clever enough not to target Mab Banerjeri so much personally but to target many of her ministers and the style of governance which 15 years on people perhaps had tired for and were

3:53 looking for something different perhaps something more aligned with what the vision of the government at the center is. So anti-incumbency plus the Hindu turification as I call it of India came together to create the perfect storm. A counter consolidation of Hindus to Muslim vote bank and Mta Banerjee's limitations in a way after 15 years in power were both exposed and that has played a major role in the BJP's victory in Bengal. Let's turn to my third takeaway which is from Tamil Nadu where the rise of Talapati Vijay the superstar turned politician and his TV case is quite remarkable. Who would have thought that the entrenched duopoly of the Dravidian parties would be broken in

4:39 this manner more than a 100 seats is quite incredible for someone making their political debut. Vijay will turn from kingmaker, potential kingmaker to king. And that was something which was unthinkable just a few months ago. But clearly Tamil Nadu was looking for change. Change perhaps in a different way. In West Bengal there was a change because 15 years is a long time in power. In Tamil Nadu it was more a sense of novelty. People wanted to experiment with something new. And there is a youth factor. Just as there was a mahila factor in West Bengal that had held Mamta Banerjee together for these years, this time in Tamil Nadu, there was the youth factor. The you are factor 40% under the age of 40. That along with

5:24 Vijay's cinematic charisma people were looking for a different kind of politics. Vijay promised that and that is in my view led to this surge in support. Number four, the DMK has paid a heavy price again for anti-incumbency against its ministers, against nepotism, against dynasticism. The party needed to change. It didn't change. Both TMC and DMK in a sense have been taught a lesson when it comes to regional parties. They have to adapt to changing situations. The DMK didn't quite do that. Many of their ministers have lost today. clearly suggesting resentment against corruption charges on the ground against TMK ministers. Let's turn to takeaway number five where we've seen in a strange way the rise of a regional satrop in Assam

6:10 within the context of the BJP. The rise of Himanta Biswas Sharma one-time congressman now the BJP's most powerful leader in the northeast. We can question his brand of politics and how he also plays Hindutwa majoritarian politics. But clearly he's been able to use that to his advantage in Assam and thereby lines up as one of the gen leaders of the BJP along with the likes of Yogi Arity and Dendra Fnavis. Which brings me to my point number six. The Congress, the one panindian national party is now getting what I call southern comfort. It's winning Kerala along with its allies coming back to power after two consecutive defeats. And therefore if you look at the south of the country, Karnataka Telingana Kerala the

6:56 Congress appears far more comfortable south of the Vindias than it is in the other parts. And in in Kerala in particular, it's more like a regional party of Kerala where the battle is between the factions of the Congress. But it gives the Congress again a talking point at the end of the day that at least in the southern tip of the country, the Congress remains a party to reckon with. So that is really how the Congress will see this election. Not much else that could please the Congress in this election. Seventh point, there is no left government left in India. That's right. The left is left out. Left Mtarat. The last time that happened was probably 50 60 years ago. Now you've got the left out of Tripura, out of West Bengal and now out of Kerala. It almost

7:41 seems as the left which only 20 years ago was deciding who would form governments in Delhi is now completely left out and that's the tectonic change that I said at the outset has taken place in Indian politics which brings me to my eighth point and the BJP 2 years after Lok Sabha elections had all thrown up the possibility of char and the BJP ended up only at 240 there was a sense is the BJP on decline I had said in my 2024 book do not rule out Narendra Modi led BJP we are in the age of hindutwa. I've been proven right. We are indeed in that age where the BJP now has become a dominant force almost hegeimmonical. And the reason as I said is organization, resources, state power as well as leadership. All of it comes together to

8:27 make the BJP this mighty machine that it has become winning elections after elections. And what it does is makes the BJP even more super confident that come 2029 they could once again win a major election in the Lok Sabha. That would be four consecutive victories if they do that. So BJP now completely almost hegemonical in its expanse which brings me to my ninth point. What happens to the opposition and the India alliance in particular? Is it at the end? There was much thought that the opposition India alliance was on the rise after the Lok Sabha of 2024. Now what's happened? MK Stalin suffers a defeat in Tamil Nadu. Ma Banerjee suffers a defeat in West Bengal. The two big regional parties that held this India alliance together

9:13 along with the Congress of course being there in that alliance. But is that alliance now over? What will happen in 2029? Will we now therefore see a federal front emerge or will the BJP simply now overwhelm all the opposition? That's the ninth point I think which is important to make because two years after that Lok Sabha defeat as I said earlier it's BJP all the way under Prime Minister Modi. My 10th point and I said this in my uh vlog which many of you have recently seen exit pollsters I had said there exit pollsters should exit. I still maintain that exit pollsters need to perfect their science not just throw up numbers. Take a look at what happened in Tamil Nadu. Uh we had most of the pollsters saying that DMK will be party

10:00 number one except Praep Gupta of Axis who said that TVK will be party number one with over 100 seats. Most of them gave the TVK numbers in the 10 20 30 some gave it 50 60 either way the DMK is battling for second place and the TVK is party number one. So most of the pollsters barring Praep Gupta got Tamil Nadu wrong. Most of them got Assam right which is which was expected I think along expected lines. Keralum a few pollsters like Chanaka suggested hung assembly there. Praep Gupta got that right. But the same Praep Gupta opted out of Bengal which has turned out to be such a clear verdict and there today's Chanaka has seemingly got it right by predicting this massive win for the BJP.

10:45 Netn net pollsters also need to introspect like all of us reporters pollsters politicians all of us need introspection be humble stay on the ground and that's the way we should look at elections I hope that this election verdict will be respected and the various takeaways that I've given will result in a cause for introspection we need a stronger democracy we need a more level playing field I maintain there was no level playing feel when it comes to elections anymore in the country because certain parties particularly the BJP now has such a dominant role. Is that good for democracy or not so good? You have to decide as I said. Jantaa Janarthan. Thanks for watching my 10 quick takeaways on the battle for the states.

11:32 Namaskar.