0:00 Many of the life wisdom imparted by the elders and the choices we think are very beneficial to us are actually not good for us in many cases, especially in key areas such as marriage, love, childcare and making money. Big data shows that many of the things that your intuition tells you are right will actually turn out to be better. Don't Trust Your Gut Seth, author of the book Don't Trust Your Gut Stephens-Davidowitz is a Ph.D. in economics who graduated from Harvard University and was a researcher at Google. Through millions of authoritative big data, he reveals a surprising truth. The choices we think are good for us may actually be of no benefit at all . There are five conclusions that may surprise you : 1. The traits and conditions of a marriage partner that most people think are important actually have nothing to do with marital happiness.
0:48 2. Most decisions made by parents have little impact on their children's future achievements and income . There is one decision that has far-reaching consequences : the community you choose to live in. The three most profitable people are all making a fortune in silence. In fields you have never thought of, if you want to make a lot of money by working part-time, it is basically impossible. Four, if you want to increase the chance of entrepreneurial success, it is more suitable to start a business in middle age. Five , there is no difference in the amount of luck between outstanding people and ordinary people. The key is to seize These conclusions may surprise you, but they are all supported by authoritative data. In this era of information explosion, how can we use objective data to make decisions that are truly beneficial to us? Next , I will dismantle this book for you,
1:33 and let us explore the truth together to gain advantages in all aspects of life - marriage Happiness does not lie in the other person but in yourself Canadian scientist Samathat Joel conducted a very interesting marriage study. She collected data from more than 11,000 couples, including their education background, work income, appearance, health status, hobbies, etc., and then used machine learning technology to analyze these factors and their marital happiness. Is there any connection between them ? Guess what? It doesn’t matter at all. What can most accurately predict whether a person will be happy or unhappy after marriage is not the criteria we usually look for in mate selection . Are you happy in the first place?
2:20 Scientists have found that you can accurately predict whether a person will be happy after marriage by just asking three questions. The first question is, were you satisfied with life before you met your lover? The second question is, when you meet you. Was your lover depressed before? The third question was, were you in a positive and optimistic mood before you met your lover ? The conclusion of this study is that people with high life satisfaction will also be happy after marriage . People who are unhappy to begin with are still unhappy after marriage, and the accuracy of using these three questions to predict marital happiness is four times higher
3:05 than all the mate selection conditions combined . This study tells us a truth, no matter who you are with, in the end It’s all about getting along with yourself. Unless you can make yourself happy, others can’t make you truly happy. There is a saying in English that goes like this. Are there any characteristics in the partner that will affect the happiness of marriage? Indeed. Some researchers suggest that if you are looking for an ideal partner, try to meet the following four conditions: high life satisfaction , a secure attachment style, conscientiousness, and a growth mindset. First of all, high life satisfaction is the same as what we said before. Your partner is originally If you are satisfied with life, you will be less likely to complain when you are together. People who are emotionally stable and
3:50 securely attached are ideal partners because they can trust others and are worthy of being trusted. They will not suffer from lack of security all day long. They are full of emotions and lose their temper. They are also willing to communicate emotions, so they are more comfortable in close relationships. Then there is conscientiousness , which means that this person is very self-disciplined, organized, efficient and reliable. Finally, the other party must have a growth mindset. Such people believe that they can improve through hard work and persistence. Your own abilities and your partner will grow together and face the challenges of the future together. Some friends may be worried about whether their love is happy now and will change in the future. How to predict whether they will still be happy in the future? Just now The researcher mentioned also thought of this and made a thorough analysis. His research results are that the key to predicting
4:37 whether you will be happy in the future is whether you feel happy together now. If you feel happy now, there is a high probability that you will also in the future. If happiness is painful now, don't expect the other person to change for the better in the future. So if you are hesitant about whether your relationship can last , ask yourself whether you really feel happy when you are with the other person now . The book concludes that how we feel now is the best indicator of future happiness. 2. Most parenting decisions are not important except for residential communities.
5:25 The Internet is full of various parenting suggestions , making parents very anxious. In fact, Seth's big data analysis shows that what parents do Most decisions have little impact on children . First of all, the problem with many parenting suggestions is that they are based on case studies. Correlation does not mean causation. For example, some parents of academically successful parents may Some people say that their children study well and have high achievements because they often read together with their children when they were young. But this may not be because parents accompany them to read , but because genes play a role. Both parents and children have genes for learning, especially IQ, even if the parents do not do parent-child reading. Most children will also fall in love with reading on their own, and their academic performance will naturally be good. In fact, genetic research over the past few decades has found that genes have a greater impact than the environment.
6:12 Two years ago, I read American geneticist Kathryn Genetic Lottery by Paige Harden The book "The Genetic Lottery" mentions that decades of research on identical twins has proven that the heritability of IQ is between 50% and 80%. She also uses statistics from millions of European and American white people to tell us that genetic genes lead to 40% % of the difference in educational outcomes , while family income level only affects 11% of the difference in educational achievement. In short, genes have a really great impact on people's achievements. Going back to the book "Don't Trust Your Intuition", many studies on identical twins who were adopted into different families found that their family environments are different, but their life trajectories are surprisingly similar . Also mentioned is a super miraculous genetic case
6:59 involving a pair of identical twins Jim Lewis and Jim Springer were separated shortly after they were born and didn't meet again until they were 39. Guess what, they are exactly the same height and weight. They even have the same tension headaches and nail-biting habits. They both worked as police officers and like to smoke the same brand. They smoked cigarettes, drank the same brand of beer, and even named their first children the same, both James Alan/Allan. Let’s look at some examples of brothers and sisters. For example, Steve Jobs and his biological sister, Steve Jobs’ biological parents had to get pregnant out of wedlock . lost her Later, his biological parents got married and gave birth to a daughter, Mona. Jobs and Mona didn't meet for the first time until they were 27 years old. It turned out that they were strikingly similar. His sister was also very creative and
7:45 a famous novelist. After that, Jobs told the New York Times that he began to believe in genes. Seth also shared the big data research on orphan adoption. The power of genes is really powerful . North Korea During the war, many children of Korean soldiers became orphans. Some brothers and sisters were sent to the United States and adopted by different families. An economist at Dartmouth College compared two groups of orphans and one group was brothers adopted by the same family. The other group of sisters are brothers and sisters who were adopted by different families. The result is that whether they grew up in the same family or in different families, there is a difference between these adopted brothers and sisters. The similarity
8:30 is almost the same. Scholars concluded that changing a child's growth environment can only increase their income as adults by 26% at most , while the impact of genes on their income is 2.5 times that of upbringing. Sth emphasizes the impact of ordinary parents on their children's achievement and income. It is basically impossible for a child to surpass the class of his parents. Note that he is talking about ordinary parents. If you have the strength, just give it to him. Donate a building to Buddha University and donate billions of dollars. No matter how bad your child's grades are, they can go directly to school. You can indeed change your child's destiny. Unfortunately, most parents can't do it. Does this mean that parents can mess up? That's not the case. Most environmental factors have little impact on children,
9:15 but parents need to ensure that one factor that really affects their children's future achievements is the community economist Raj lives in. Chetty and his team collected the tax records of all Americans and found that where people live has a strong relationship with how much money they will earn when they grow up. Living in a big city or in a good neighborhood is good for a child's future. A one standard deviation increase in community quality during the growth process will increase a child's future income by 13%. How to judge whether a community is good or not? The key point is whether there are outstanding adults with higher education in the community. Economists have found that these adult role models are better than those in schools. Much more important is the key to influencing children's future achievements . For example, if children are surrounded by many inventors,
10:02 they will become successful when they grow up. The possibility of becoming an inventor will be greatly increased. If a black boy lives in a community with many adult black men instead of in a single-parent family, the crime rate will be lower and the income will be higher when they grow up . To put it bluntly, it is the story of Meng’s mother’s three moves . It still makes sense today Seth suggested that most parenting decisions don't Parents can relax, but there is one thing that parents can take advantage of, that is, let their children come into contact with excellent adults.
10:48 Therefore, it is not as good as a chicken to give yourself the ability to realize Meng Mu's three moves . It is more important than blindly controlling your children . Hidden industries and reliable paths to getting rich. Stories about making big money online. In fact, the selected people who really make a lot of money won't tell you how much money they have and how they got it, right? In order to find out more about the fields in which rich people make money, scholars collaborated with the US Taxation Office to check the taxes of all Americans. and income data finally revealed those in the top 1% of the U.S. by annual income or even It is the money-making channel of the top 0.1%. The results show that most wealthy Americans do not make their money from wages. Only 20 % of those in the top 0.1% of the annual income list , that is, the bosses with an annual income of more than 1.58 million US dollars.
11:35 People mainly make money from wages and the remaining 80% have their own business even though Among the top 1% of wealthy people with an annual income of more than 390,000 US dollars, about 60% mainly rely on their own business to make money. So, is there no chance for ordinary people to work and enter the top 0.1% ? The chance is indeed Very slim unless you are the CEO of a large multinational company and a member of a well-known TV show If you are a gold medal host or a top sports team coach, otherwise it is basically a fantasy to make a lot of money by working part-time. In which industries do these rich people do business ? Which industries are more likely to produce rich people? After statistics, he found that the top few industries that are the most profitable are Real Estate Finance Investment Car Sales Freelance Artist
12:22 Market Research and Of course, the situation in the Chinese market is definitely different for middlemen. You can also look for similar data on your own to look for opportunities. In short, if you want to reach the top 0.1% in income, you have to start a business. But the most common problem when starting a business is price war. You have to think about it. Ways to avoid it. The reason why rich people make a lot of money is because they Know how to circumvent vicious competition and protect your business interests. There are three ways to do this : 1. Legal protection 2. Possessing technology or connections that are difficult to copy 3. Building a brand First let’s talk about legal protection. For example, in the American car dealer industry, there are many rules. Car manufacturers cannot sell cars directly. New companies cannot just sell specific brands Car beer distribution
13:07 must also separate the three links of manufacturing, distribution and retail . Such laws allow upstream and downstream companies to make money. The second is exclusive technology and connections. If your product development is very difficult, but once it is made It can be produced at low cost and cannot be imitated by others. This is an advantage. In addition, in the field of market research, if you have exclusive knowledge, data and industry contacts , even if your competitors want to imitate you , they will not be able to produce reports of the same quality because they do not have your resources. Finally, it is the power of the brand. Some singers may not be the best in singing skills. But fans are willing to spend more money for them , that’s why In addition to the charm of brands, some industries have little price competition but are monopolized by a few large multinational companies. So how can small and medium-sized enterprises compete with them?
13:54 Localization, for example, market research companies specialize in those market segments and do something special. Even big companies can’t compete with middlemen. They are also local producers. I have been around for a long time and have a strong relationship with retailers. I understand the needs of local people very well , so large companies in these channels will not be able to copy them for a while . Finally, Seth suggested that if you want your income to be among the top 1% or the top 0.1%, then you must Ask yourself three questions : first, are you your own boss ? Second, can your business avoid price wars? Third, can your business avoid those global giants? If you can answer these three questions, congratulations. You are not far from wealth and freedom. If you can't, just stay honest. Go to work. Four formulas for successful entrepreneurship.
14:41 Accumulate experience when you are young. If you want to start a business when you are middle-aged, How to plan a business to increase the success rate? The first common confusion is whether we should start a business while we are young or wait until we are middle-aged and experienced. In fact, economists found that 2.7 million companies were established in the United States between 2007 and 2014. The average age of company founders is 41.9 years old Even the average age of the founders of the most profitable companies in the technology industry is 42.3 years old. This book is all about the situation in the United States. I was also curious about China, so I checked the 2022 "Entrepreneurship Survey Report" of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and found that The majority of entrepreneurs are young and middle-aged people, those aged 36 to 44 account for 40
15:26 %, and those aged 26 to 35 account for 35%. So being young is not necessarily an advantage. In fact, middle-aged entrepreneurs have a higher success rate. Second, let’s talk about which one is more advantageous, intra-industry entrepreneurship or cross-industry entrepreneurship ? Economists not only studied the age of entrepreneurs, but also studied their past experiences. If entrepreneurs have worked in the same field before , they will create super successful companies. The possibility is twice that of other people , and this advantage is even more obvious if the previous job is directly related to the entrepreneurial business. Third, those who work hard are more suitable. Should we start a business together? In fact, it’s not. Data shows that outstanding employees are more likely to become successful entrepreneurs. If they have reached a relatively top position in the industry while working
16:12 , then the possibility of entrepreneurial success will be greater . In other words, those with strong abilities will People can do very well whether they are working or starting a business. What should people do if they are not very capable? The book does not say anything about it. Let me add it to you. If you feel that you are not very capable, then Working with capable people is also a way. You see, when Zuckerberg and Jobs started their business, they had a group of very powerful classmates and good friends who silently supported them. In short, Seth’s advice to people who want to start a business is to accumulate money first and then start a business . How to make luck favor you. When we see others succeed, sometimes we feel uncomfortable
16:58 and think that they are just lucky. But big data tells us the role of luck in life. In fact, it is much smaller than we thought. Scholars compared two groups of companies. One is the so-called ten-fold company and the other is their competitors. What is a ten-fold company? It means that these companies have performed continuously in the stock market. For a period of time , it was at least ten times better than companies in the same industry. Then scholars analyzed the lucky events encountered by these companies , which are those things that the company cannot control and have a particularly large impact and are unpredictable. Research shows that Shows that the 10X companies encountered seven key luck events that significantly boosted their business growth, compared to eight such events for the average company. In other words,
17:43 the successful companies encountered about the same amount of luck as the average company. Maybe even a little less. The only difference is that successful companies are better at seizing limited luck. Behind what seems like good luck is actually good decision-making . Seth wrote that the same is true in life . If we compare luck to pie falling from the sky , ordinary people may not even notice the pie on the ground
18:30 or don’t know how to pick it up. People who are so powerful can catch it immediately. This is actually the same thing. How can this ability make you luckier? Physicists from Northeastern University in the United States have studied the mathematical rules of success for those fields where ability can be directly measured, such as fields. In a track race to see who reaches the finish line first, you only need to focus on improving your hard skills. But for a relatively subjective field like art that cannot be measured directly , you have to go out more and socialize more to show off your works and abilities. Scholars have found that those who often Painters who move around are more likely to send their paintings to famous art museums, and their popularity will rise immediately. Many musicians are also like this. Take the American rock singer Bruce. Springsteen said
19:16 that he first started singing in small bars. Once he heard a hit song played on the radio and wondered how these big stars could sing so well, so he He decided to take the band to a big city and had a show in Los Angeles. From then on, he started touring and became famous very quickly. Now he is a household name in the United States. This physicist emphasized that in many fields, the situation is not like sports but more like art. That is to say, business ability is not easy to quantify. Your talent alone is not enough. The book writes,
20:04 so you have to move around more, make more connections, and show yourself more. Only then can you be noticed. Otherwise, even if you are lucky, you may not be able to catch him. There are many people in the world who rely on intuition , but there are very few who use big data to guide their lives. After all, people are not omniscient and omnipotent. It is also easy to make mistakes and rely on instinct or the advice of people around you. Compared with big data, it can objectively guide our decisions. I think this book is still worth reading. It reveals truths that go against common sense and helps us overcome the weaknesses of human nature and Cognitive bias makes wiser choices in marriage, love, childcare, career development, etc. I believe that by studying and practicing the contents of this book, your quality of life will be far better than those who only rely on I think the original English version of the book "
20:49 The Man Who Acts on Instinct" is still a bit difficult. It is more suitable for students whose vocabulary has reached more than 10,000. It involves more research-oriented language and data analysis language, which is good for academics and their own. If you have some career pursuits and want to challenge yourself, you can read this book. That’s it for this video. I am Xia Binghai, who loves reading original English books. See you next time.
