0:00 In 2024, you made three predictions that have come perfectly true. Like Trump would start a war with Iran, and you've made a series of new predictions. Yes, and I'll explain each prediction one by one. Okay, so first, I predict that Trump will get a third term. But isn't this constitutionally illegal? It's not. The president now has emergency war powers, and so he can actually delay the election. My second prediction is Iran is not a forever war, and the United States will institute a national draft. Meaning that if you're between 18 to 24 in America, you're male. You'll be unnegotiable. put into the draft system. And they just pass a law that says that starting December, you will be unactly registered. Which means you're obliged to go and fight. Exactly. Next, the world will move towards an AI surveillance state. So everything you do online is being recorded to figure out how to control you. And then this is the
0:47 most controversial prediction. This is pretty bad. and I'll explain why, and also I will tell you why this work can only lead to World War III, why there's a very strong possibility that the American empire will collapse. And also, I'll show you what the Russians will do and how the private bankers are controlling you. I'm not owned by anybody. That's what you think. So let's talk about that. This is super interesting to me. My team give me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us, according to this, that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So a favour to ask all of you, please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button, if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here to keep this show free, to keep it
1:36 improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you, do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear. I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the Diary of SEO, and I will not let you down. Please help us, really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. Professor Dieng, there's so much going on in the world at the moment that it's quite confusing for an ordinary person like me. And you've blown up across the internet because you've been able to demystify all of this craziness, but also because in 2024,
2:24 you made three predictions that have come perfectly true. Some might say, unfortunately. Unfortunately, yes. What were those three predictions? My first prediction was that Trump would win in November 2024. Second prediction is that he would start a war against Iran. And the third prediction is that the United States would lose this war. And in losing this war, this would radically reshape the geopolitical landscape. How did you know that Trump would start a war with Iran? The simple answer is this. The United States have invaded Iran because it has no choice in the matter. If it were not to invade Iran, it would lose its
3:09 empire. Its empire is based purely on the US dollar, the petrodollar, which is a Ponzi scheme. If it did not invade Iran, then people would choose not to trade with it anymore. People would choose to not buy US treasuries. Why? For the longest time, this system worked Fine. But then in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. That was not the issue. The issue was the American response. The American response was to sanction Russia and remove Russia from the SWIFT global payment system. It also ordered Europeans to freeze over $200 billion
3:58 in Russian assets. And there's a problem, these very basis for having the US dollar as the global reserve currency is that it would remain politically neutral. The Americans guaranteed seamless, politically neutral international exchange. So if this trend continues, right, if you don't do anything about Russia, Russia would take over Ukraine. And Russia then would build an alliance with China and Iran. If you look at these three countries on a map, Russia, China, and Iran, this is the entire Asian continent. And then what they can do is this. They can say, okay, the United States
4:47 is a bully. They force us to play by the rules. They get very angry if we don't play by the rules. So let's not play with the United States anymore. Let's just trade amongst ourselves. And then what they can do is they can build a Eurasian railway system connecting Russia, Iran, and China together. And then what this would do is negate American sea power because it's American ships that patrol and protect the oceans. And then what would happen is the world, Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, East Asia, would look at the trading bloc and think to themselves, wow,
5:34 these guys, the Russians, Iranians, and Chinese, they use gold as their medium of exchange. Gold is valuable. The Americans, on the other hand, use U.S. dollars as the medium of exchange, which is not valuable. So am I better off with the American system with this new BRICS system. What's BRICS? It's an acronym. It stands for Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, China. So I'm right in thinking because Iran, Russia, and China were colluding, it threatened US dominance, which is driven by the world using the dollar as the primary currency for trading. That's correct. Okay.
6:22 Okay. So they felt they needed to invade because then they can control more of the Middle East? Right. So by attacking Iran, certain things happen. The first thing that happened is that China is now cut off from Middle East energy. China receives anywhere between 50 to 6% of its energy needs from the Middle East, not just Iran, but also Qatar and Saudi Arabia. A lot of people say that China today, it's reliant on renewables, solar, wind and that's true to a certain extent but remember that china it is an industrial powerhouse so it needs energy from everywhere and everyone so the fact that china is losing all this energy
7:11 from the middle east presents china with a long-term strategic vulnerability that's the first thing that happens second thing that happens is that europe is in a lot of trouble Because remember, because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian energy was sanctioned. And so Europe relied more on the Middle East for its energy needs, especially Qatar. And now Europe has lost all of this oil. And then you have Japan and South Korea, these two powerful East Asian economies are also reliant on the Middle East for its energy. So another question is, If you're not getting your energy from the Middle East, where can you get your
7:57 energy from? And there's only two answers, either Russia or the United States. Russia is at war. And what's happening is the Ukrainian drones are attacking Russian oil refineries and export hubs. So the world in the short term has no choice but to look to America for its energy needs. What did Trump do recently? He took over Venezuela, which has the world's greatest oil reserves. He's threatening Canada, he's threatening Greenland, Mexico, Colombia. If Trump controls the entire Western Hemisphere, the entire world has to beg Trump for energy and resources. And this
8:47 saves both the US dollar as well as American empire. So as part of your prediction in 2024, I believe it was, you said that the US would lose this war. Right. Why did you predict that the US will lose this war with Iran? Because the American society does not have the political will, does not have the manufacturing capacity, does not have the risk tolerance to fight this war in Iran. Basically, America wants to fight this war as cheaply, as easily, and as quickly as possible. Right? So Trump really fought that, you know, if I sent my airplanes to
9:34 strike Tehran and kill the Alatollah, they would just surrender. That was like literally his plan going into this war. He paid no attention to the culture. He paid no attention to the history of the Iranian people. He had actually no respect for the nation. And when you do that, when you disrespect your opponent, when you underestimate your opponent, and when you yourself are not willing to commit to the fight, you're going to lose. So is Iran's game just to draw this out as long as they possibly can? How are they, you know, because he's taken out the leaders. And do you also think that Trump thought that just, if I just bomb the leader, then everything will sort of regenerate itself and we'll be fine? What was the sort of fundamental misunderstanding There's a lot of confusion as to how this war started.
10:24 Even today, no one actually knows how this war started. But I think that Trump, given his personality, he was convinced that if he killed the leadership of Iran, then they would have no choice but to surrender. And his proof of concept was, of course, on January 3rd of this year, total force went into Venezuela kidnapped Maduro and they just completely surrendered. So in Trump's mind, he wanted to replay the Venezuela scenario. And he didn't realize that Iran is fundamentally different from Venezuela. The short answer is he is a reality TV star. He
11:11 thinks in terms of optics. He doesn't think in terms of geopolitical strategy. The long answer is that the American military has become very corrupt an insular institution that is trying to generate as much congressional funding as possible in order to fund the military industrial complex. Did he think that he was going to bomb Iran, the people would rise up, they would elect a new government and that would be that, and then he could control Iran? That's exactly what he thought. So what I want to do now is go to the map. Okay. All right. Go ahead. And show you what he got wrong. Okay. All right. So this is a map of the Middle East. And the first thing
11:56 to notice about this map is the topography. What does that mean? How many mountains you have. So this is what's really interesting is that the topography between Iraq and Iran are completely different. And this is important because in 2003, the Americans invaded urap and they won the war in about two weeks and the reason why they won the war is americans practice something called shock and awe the idea of shock and awe is that it is a military strategy that believes that if you cut off the head of the snake the snake will
12:45 die the decapitation strike and so what they did was they went into Baghdad, seized Baghdad, and the regime collapsed and the war was over. And they were able to do this because of the topography. If you look at the map of Iraq, it's all flat, it's all desert, meaning that you can just fly in your planes cut off the head of a snake and the war is over. There's actually no way you can defend against airstrikes because you're entirely a
13:30 desert. Now, let's go to, let's look at the topography of Iran. And Iran, it's all mountainous. In fact, you can make the argument that Iran is a fortress, okay? And so the first thing is that Iran can choose to fight a war of attrition. What's a war of attrition? A war of attrition is a game of UNCL. What's that? Right. A game of UNCL is where we don't have enough power to destroy each other. So what we're trying to do is we try to create pain points, leverage points to force
14:18 you to submit, to cry uncle, right? So because Iran is too large and that's 92 million people, it's impossible for the Americans in Australia to destroy Iran. So what you're trying to do instead is bomb enough targets so that they recognize that resistance is futile and it's surrender, okay? That's the extent of the strategy. But again, the problem with this is that one, Iran is much too big. Number two is that it is a mountain fortress, which means that you can hide your weapons and your military inside mountains, right? Which allows you
15:05 to conduct a guerrilla warfare strategy against your opponent. And this is exactly what Iran is doing right now, where their underground missile bases are hidden inside the mountains And then they're able to strike targets for out the middle East primarily American basis, but also energy installations that are key to the American petrodollar system. And so it's a game of UNCO where the Americans are trying to create as much damage as possible in the Iranian nation. And the Iran in response is trying to destroy as much of the global economy as possible to force the world to pressure America to call the war off. So that's
15:51 a situation we are facing right now. Second thing that Trump got wrong is how vulnerable the global economy is. Because the Iranians control something called the Shcherb who moves. Okay? And as you can see on this map, the Shcherb who moves, it's a very, very narrow piece of land. It's only about 33 kilometers across. You can actually swim across the Strait of Hormuz. Okay. And why this is important is that GCC exports 20% of the world's energy. The GCC what? The Gulf Cooperative Council. Okay. So the Gulf Cooperative Council are certain nations in the
16:37 Middle East that align politically. So they include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Buran, Kuwait. They've been exporting energy, but not just energy, but also a lot of byproducts of energy production, including fertilizer, to the world, primarily East Asia and India. In return, they've been getting food back. So most people don't appreciate this, but the GCC actually imports 89% of its food needs. And the reason why is that they've become so rich these past few decades that the populations have blown up.
17:26 And as a result, they have to feed their population, but they don't have agricultural resources. They also don't have water resources. And so they have two major vulnerabilities, which is food and water. And they have a lot of desalination plants around the area. And so- It's a desalination plant. Okay. So a desalination plant takes salt water from the seas and then through an electrochemical process, turns it into portable water that people can use for drinking purposes and for agricultural purposes. Okay. Right? So as you can see, the entire area, it is extremely vulnerable to drone and
18:12 missile attacks from Iran. So that's the second thing that Iran has done, which Trump did not expect. He didn't expect that the Iranians would close off the Strait of Hormuz. And how the Iranians were able to close off the Strait of Hormuz was just by threatening to attack any ships that wanted to cross it. The reason why is that these ships depend on maritime insurance in order to operate. But it is a risk, a very high risk of being destroyed. then you will not get insurance. So it's not that the Iranians have said to these ships, you can't cross. It's just that the insurers refuse to allow these ships to cross because it's too dangerous. And Trump didn't, you think they'd consider this before they started bombing
19:00 Iran, that Iran would have some leverage in shutting down such a critical piece of water for, you know, shipping fertilizer, energy, et cetera. You'd think that they would have known this? Right, so that's what a lot of people say, that Trump's stupid, that Trump is hot-headed, that he was misled by the Israelis. And there's good evidence to support this. But I want to show you something. It's called the National Defense Strategy. And so this is a document that was published by the Department of War. And in it, it explains what the American strategy to maintain global dominance is.
19:48 And in the introduction, what it says is that for too long, America has been bullied by the world. America is a nation that protects the world. Yet Europe, East Asia takes advantage of American generosity. The Europeans don't pay for their defense. And so they put all this money into welfare, into a pension system. The Chinese have been giving America a bad trade deal. The Chinese steal American technology and then use it to make products that they sell back to the Americans. So the Americans have been getting a really bad deal for
20:36 decades. And President Donald Trump, he's gonna change that by doing four things. The National Defense Strategy calls for a four-point program to put America first. The first thing that America's going to do is going to secure the Western Hemisphere. Why? Because the Western Hemisphere belongs to the United States. When you say the Western Hemisphere, what do you mean? What region is that? Is that Canada as well? So if you look at the map, we can divide the map into the Eastern Hemisphere, okay? And the Western Hemisphere. Okay, so everything over here? Everything. Mexico. Including Greenland, including Canada,
21:21 including Mexico. Every part of this area belongs to the United States. Therefore, you cannot trade with any of these countries without American permission, without paying a tribute to the Americans. And this is why that the Americans have parked one third of their naval assets in the Caribbean today. It should tell the Chinese and the Russians, back off. You want to come here, you either pay your tribute or you'll be attacked. Okay, that's the first point of this strategy. The Western Hemisphere belongs to America. Something that they call the Don Roe Doctrine, which is Trump's corollary to the Monroe
22:11 Doctrine. And so that's point one. Point two is that America wants to reimagine its relationship with its allies. Basically, NATO needs to pay for its own defense. NATO needs to go fight Russia and Ukraine. America will provide support. It will provide weapons and financing NATO needs to do more work. And in East Asia, South Korea and Japan need to do a better job of keeping China in check. Okay, that's point two. Point three is specific to China. And the idea is the United States does
22:58 not want to destroy China. The United States does not want to humiliate China, but China needs to be put in its place. China needs to respect the power and the reach of the United States. And how the United States is going to do this is by strangling China economically, right? So if you look at a map of China, most of its trade goes through something called the Strait of Malacca. And the Strait of Malacca is the most important maritime choke point in the world. All America has to do is park Naval carriers inside the street of Malacca and China will lose 90% of its energy
23:43 exports. But if they parked them there, China would still go through, no? No, because you have to go for the street of Malacca. So America has something called the first island chain. Okay. And the first island chain prevents China from reaching the Pacific ocean. The first island chain includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia. that blocks China from reaching out into the Pacific. So in order for it to access trade, it has to go through the Sharia of Malacca. And through the Sharia of Malacca, it can access India, Africa, and the Middle East. Right? And so by positioning naval carriers inside the Sharia of Malacca, it creates a blockade, and China would have to pay
24:31 a toll in order to access the Sierra Malacca. And the fourth one? And the fourth one is to rejuvenate, reinvigorate America's defense manufacturing sector. So a supercharged US defense industrial base. That's exactly correct, yes. All right. So what this means is that the Pentagon, a few weeks ago, went to Detroit and talked to Ford and General Motors and said, you know what, because of this war in Iran, we might need you to stop making cars and start making more munitions and drones. How do you know they said that? They published it? They published it, yes. Really? Yes. So the United States went to Forbes and GM and said, we might need
25:17 you to start making weapons with your factories. Yes, and they're happy doing this because the primary margins are much greater for weapons than for cars. This is the Pentagon, so you can charge them as much as you want and they'll pay for it. Whereas you make cars, it's for the consumer market and they may not buy your cars, right? So you're like Ford or General Motors. The best deal in the world is to go make weapons for the Pentagon to fight these wars in Middle East that can go on for forever. So we're in a situation where, okay, look, if you read the news, if you talk to a lot of people, Trump's an idiot. And this war in Iran makes no sense at all. But then if you just read the National Defense Strategy that is on the Department of War website, and
26:04 anyone can go there and download it for free and read it themselves, it's a very clear roadmap of what America needs to do in order to maintain imperial hegemony. And so let's just summarize the major points. The first major point is to maintain control over the Western Hemisphere and create a fortress America. Which is why he invaded Venezuela and he says he's going to invade Cuba. Exactly. And also Greenland. Look at all the countries that he's named over the past year. Greenland Canada Mexico Venezuela Cuba Colombia Nicaragua, Honduras. It's all the Western Hemisphere, right? And they're all together. Second point is to create divided and rule all around
26:52 the world. So imagine a situation where in Europe, NATO fights Russia in Ukraine. In East Asia, China fights South Korea and Japan. In the Middle East, Iran fights the GCC allied with Israel. What does America do? America can now sell everyone weapons and resources and finance it. This will be back to World War II. But it makes them weaker as well, generally. That's the point. Yeah. Right? Then what would happen is that $40 trillion that America has in debt, it would disappear because it would be absorbed by the world. Right? So you can say, look, Trump's an idiot, but if you
27:38 actually look at a map and how America wants this map, this world map to play out, it makes perfect sense. So the war is going well for Trump. The war is going very well for Trump. Really? Yes. But you said in your prediction that he would lose the war. What's your definition of lose the war? Losing the war means that America would send ground troops, Iran would survive this ground invasion, and this would be so politically damaging that chaos breaks out in the United States and the U.S. ground invasion is forced to retreat and the United States is forced to retreat from the Middle East. And you still think that's going to happen? I
28:26 still think that's going to happen. So you think the United States is going to put ground troops in, Iran are going to resist, and then chaos is going to break out in the United States? Yes. So let me explain to you why ground troops have to be sent. Okay. So in phase one of this war, which started February 28th, which lasted for about six weeks, the intention was to decapitate the regime. And you do that by striking Tehran, And you do that by striking the military bases installations throughout Iran. It's what the Americans call sharp and all. And the point is to force the Iranians to call uncle, but that's not what happened. To give up. To give up basically. Because what the Iranians did was they responded by attacking US bases
29:16 throughout the GCC. They closed off the Strait of Hormuz, and they rally their people. So rather than surrender, the Iranians basically double down. That's phase two of the war. Now we've gone to phase three of the war, where Trump has basically decided that decapitation does not work. And so what Trump's going to do is he's going to impose a naval blockade on Iran's naval blockade. Right. And so the question then is if Trump understands that the computation does not work, then using game theory, what's game theory, game theory is the
30:04 belief that all of the world it's governed by rules and incentives. And once you understand the rules and incentives, you can predict how people behave because people will always behave. according to their best interests. So in geopolitics, the nation states are individual players. And each nation state is trying to use its resources and its advantages in order to pressure other nation states to obey it. Okay? So Trump recognizes that the Iranians have closed off their sort of moves, but not only that,
30:50 But the Iranians could also use the suitable moves to finance the war, meaning that now they're forcing ships to pay a toll of $2 million in order to cross it. And so this is a huge advantage for the Iranians. And so Trump has said, no, I'm going to blockade your blockade, negating Iran's advantage over the suitable moves. So we think about it, again, using game theory, I want to discuss what the Americans will do in order to force Iran the Iranians to capitulate. Okay? So I would say there's a three point strategy. The first strategy is economic strangulation. You basically destroy the state's capacity to finance the war. And there are two ways that Iran is
31:38 financing the war so far. The first is using oil exports, right? 90% of Iran's oil goes to China. And this is Karg Island. This little spot here is Karg Island. And this is where Iran will export 90% of its oil overseas. That's the first mechanism. Second mechanism is to show who moves, where the Iranians now can collect tolls. So what you have to do is you have to eliminate both of these finance mechanisms. You can close off both by name of God, OK? So that's strategy one. Strategy two is you
32:25 need to create as much chaos within Iran as possible. You want to turn this fortress into a prison. And the way you do that is by storing up ethnic tensions in the country. So if you look at a map, an ethnic map of Iran, what you will discover is that the Persian people are primarily in this area, in the middle of the country. But you go to the borderlands, okay, the border areas, it's primarily ethnic minorities. And there are two ethnic minorities in the country that have always been problematic for the government. The first problematic people are
33:11 called bullocks here in South China. East Iran by the Pakistani border. They have a history of incisnancy against the government, okay? Second people that have been problematic are the Kurds who are permanently in the northwest of the country. So if you are the U.S. government, if you are the military, your strategy is to establish foreign operating bases in these areas. A forward operating base is a spearhead of the military where you insert ground troops to hold in the area
34:00 in order to resupply, in order to push further into the territory. Okay, so a forward operating base would be the US putting troops into the Northwest and the Southeast, and then using that as a way to move forward into Iran? No, you don't want to move forward into Iran because it's too large. You don't have enough forces to move into Iran. What you want to do is this. You want to establish port operating bases in these areas in order to arm and train ethnic insurgents that you can also finance as well. And you do this because you want to turn them into cannon fodder. You have to force a response when they're in the military. So if they come in with
34:50 the army in order to quell these rebellions, that's great because now you can use your air power to decimate the Iranian military. Your problem right now is the Iranian military is hiding inside mountains. And so you want to force them out in the open. And so you want to create as many points of tension in the country as possible to force the Iranian military to respond. Does that make sense? Okay. And now your third strategy is to strangle the capital, Tehran. Because that's where the political elite are. It's about a city of 10 million people. And the way you strangle Tehran is you deny them three things. You deny them water, electricity, and
35:40 food. So you attack power plants. You attack reservoirs. You attack railways that bring food into the capital. And when you do that, these 10 million people in Iran will now oppose the government and demand a political settlement because they need food, water, and electricity to survive. Is there a government? Right now, there's a debate as to the true extent of leadership in Iran. Because Trump's recent interviews, he's saying, he's claiming that the leadership in Iran are fighting themselves, but then he's also saying in other interviews that there's, they don't even
36:27 know who they're dealing with. Exactly. Iran has a very unusual political system in that it's a theocracy. It's a religious government, it's run by clerics, called the mullahs, in theory. And then there's a parallel system, a state apparatus, that actually takes care of day-to-day bureaucracy and that's secular. The Mullahs control the morality of the country. They also control foreign affairs. So basically this is important because Iran has two parallel military structures. You have the military, but you also have the IRGC. The IRGC are only loyal to the Mullahs. Which is the religious part. Exactly.
37:14 So you have this divide in the country where the IRGC see this as a religious war, as a crusade to kill the Great Satan, and they want to fight to the death. And the Great Satan is? The Great Satan is the American empire, which is the source of the misery that Iran has been suffering for the past few decades. And the IRGC, not only do they see America as the Great Satan, but they also see this as a global conflict. because they have proxies that support their beliefs, including here in Lebanon, Hezbollah, including here in Yemen, the Hufis, and of course in Palestine, Hamas. Okay, and before Syria was also part of their axis of resistance, but Syria has
38:02 been toppled by the Americans and the Israelis. So the IRGC see this as a religious crusade that is global in nature. The political leadership in Tehran sees it completely different. They see this as a conflict primarily between America and Iran, and they want to reach a political settlement as soon as possible. And so, in other words, these ceasefire negotiations, it's really all for show. Because at the end of the day, even if the Americans gave the Iranians everything they wanted, the IRGC still controls the battlefield. And they would not... or seek peace terms lightly. Another problem in this situation is the ROTC practice something called the MOSIAC
38:52 strategy. MOSIAC. The idea of the MOSIAC strategy is, okay, you know the Americans, the most effective military ever in human history. You know that they practice shock and awe, decapitation. So how do you respond to that? You respond to that using decentralization. 31 provinces, in the country with their own command and control that is localized. So basically they have 31 different armies that have their own leadership. That's correct. Okay. And when you do this, it's a fight to the finish. Why did they do that? They did it because the Americans possess the most sophisticated surveillance technology in the world, meaning they can easily identify the leadership and they can easily track you down and kill you.
39:41 So the only way around that is to decentralize the leadership and spread all around the country so that the Americans cannot kill everyone. How does the central government orchestrate 31 different armies in Iran? How does it get a message out to them? I heard Peter Hegseth make a comment in one of the interviews saying that it takes some time for the pigeons to get out to the armies. And what he was saying basically is that when the ceasefire was called and there was still some missiles flying. He was basically saying that's just because it takes a long time to tell the 31 different armies to stop. The reality is that given the Mosek strategy, there's actually no way to coordinate these 31 different military operations. Because the Mosek strategy was meant to fight to the better
40:31 end. You do not stop until you completely control the Middle East and the Americans have been forced out of the Middle East and Israel has been humbled. So let's go into the specifics of what the Mosaic strategy is. The idea is that they have an eschatology. So an eschatology is an understanding of how the world should be and how we move towards this world. And for the Iranians, their eschatology is that Iran, in order to which its true potential needs to be master of the Muslim world. It needs to displace Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia, it's too
41:17 aligned with the United States, which is the Great Satan. Mecca and Medina are under the influence of the Great Satan because why are there US military bases in Saudi Arabia? So this war, from their perspective, it's a great opportunity to overthrow the corrupt leadership of Saudi Arabia, but not only Saudi Arabia, but the entire GCC, overthrow the corrupt governments of the entire Muslim world and install governments that put God, Allah, first. So they're not going to quit around? This war, once it starts, can only lead to World War III. That's a strong statement
42:04 to make. As a probability, What probability would you assign to that claim? I would put it pretty high, anywhere between 80 to 90% probability. So that's certainty? Basically certainty, yes. Explain to me how that happens. Okay. So we need to step back and appreciate that there's a global dynamic going on. And we need to appreciate the grand strategy of the different players involved. So what I'm going to do is this. I'm going to explain to you how each nation sees itself in the world. Okay? And to do that, I'm going to use a chess
42:49 set, okay? All right. This is the key. This is the political system of the United States, which is democracy. And there are certain strengths and weaknesses to a democracy. Democracy is vibrant, it's creative, it's flexible. But its ultimate weakness is polarization, where today, there are different political factions refusing to get along and this may break up the civil war, okay? So the way you defeat the United States is not to conquer it. You can never conquer the United States. The way they defeat the United States is to force it into a civil war, which then kills the king. To get its people to rise up against the leadership? No, you want the Democrats and the
43:35 Republicans to form different factions and fight a civil war. You want to create so much political polarization, the different elite factions take up arms against each other. So this is the political system, okay? Democracy. Now let's look at the queen. What's the queen? The queen is what I refer to as the grand strategy of the United States. How the United States can maintain its control over the entire world. And the grand strategy, it's already outlined in the national defense strategy, right? Let's create Fortress of America and then create chaos throughout the entire world so that we can sell everyone weapons and resources. Okay, that's a grand strategy, right? All right. Now, once you have a grand strategy, you need to implement this grand strategy. So you need attack
44:23 vectors. All right, the attack vectors are the rook, the bishop, and the knight. All right, so let's go over the three major attack vectors of the United States. They are... first of all, America's technological supremacy. So these are basically the tools that they use to attack others. Exactly. In order to achieve their grand strategy. All right, so aerosupremacy, right? Which is the planes and stuff like that. Then you have the US dollar, right? Because the US dollar allows you to finance everything. And everyone wants the US dollar, okay? So that is the second. The third attack vector is propaganda. The United States controls the world's most powerful media, including New York
45:13 Times, CNN. And as such, they can control the narrative of the world. Okay, so these are the three major attack vectors. Now, they use the pawns. The pawns are weapons that they can sacrifice in order to achieve the grand strategy. And in the case of the United States, the pawn are the allies. Meaning, I just say this, but the UK, Europe, South Korea, and Japan. Okay? And also the entire Western Hemisphere. This is the Americans, okay? The people who are most opposed to this grand strategy of Americans are
46:02 the Russians. So let's go over the Russian system. In the Russian system, the king, the political system, it's an autocracy. And an autocracy, it's good because it allows for coronation. It allows for decisiveness. It allows for resolve. Long-term thinking. Exactly, right? That's Putin. What's bad is, if this guy dies, there's a secession crisis, right? So basically, once you topple the... autocrat, then the system itself breaks down. So that's the Russian system. For the Russians, the great strategy is something called the Third Rome Strategy. The Third
46:48 Rome Strategy. Yes. So the people in Russia believe that they are the true successors to the Roman Empire. And previously, there were two Romes. It was the first Rome, then it moved to Constantinople. And Moscow is destined to be the Third Rome. And what makes Moscow interesting is that it wants to unite the entire Christian world under its leadership. The main philosopher for the Third Rome strategy is Adrian Dugin, who in 1997 wrote a book called Foundation of Geopolitics. And what he said was this, what he said that if Russia is to defeat the Americans, it needs to build alliances throughout Eurasia in order to negate American sea power, and aerial supremacy, all
47:37 right? So what are the attack vectors for Russia, okay? The first attack vector, the size of the country makes it almost invincible. So think about World War II, Operation Barbarossa. The Germans went into Russia with six, seven million men, and it didn't get very far, okay? So the terrain is very important. The geography is very important. Then you have the Orthodox religion. which is meant to galvanize believers into supporting Russia. The third attack vector is artillery. So Russia has the best land army in the world. And we're seeing that play out in Ukraine where a combination of Russian artillery
48:25 and drones, it's devastating the Ukrainian military in Ukraine. The cause for Russia are its soldiers. So Russia is able to sustain many, many casualties in its military. If you actually go and interview Russian soldiers, they are probably the brightest soldiers in the world. They are literally not afraid to die for what they believe in. Okay, so this is the Russian third world strategy. You can see how it conflicts with the Americans. Okay? Now we go to the Israelis. Jerusalem, the capital, it's a mixed system, meaning it's both democracy as well as a theocracy. And it's good
49:12 in that the Israelis are very creative, but the fundamental weakness is the division of the society, where Tel Aviv and Jerusalem don't get along. So that is the political system of Israel. The grand strategy of Israel is called the Greater Israel Project. So the Israelis believe that the entire Middle East belongs to them, from the Nile to the Euphrates, because that's what it says in the Bible. This is what God, Yahweh, promised Abraham. So their intention is to conquer the entire Middle East, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, even parts of Turkey. Now, let's look at the
49:59 attack vectors for the the Israelis. The first attack vector is Mossad. Mossad is the most powerful intelligence agency in the world in that it is able to infiltrate and undermine different political systems. And Mossad, for anyone that doesn't know, is their secret service? Basically, yes. Their spy system. Second attack vector for the Israelis is the Jewish diaspora, because Jews do business everywhere around the world. And Jewish businessmen work very closely with Mossad. And as such, they have influence in a lot of places that they
50:46 shouldn't have. And the third attack vector is the Bible. Why? Because if you're Christian, and there are many Christians who believe this, you believe that the Jews are God's chosen people. So if you look at what's happening in the Middle East, all this conflict between Israel and Palestine, a lot of this conflict is being supported politically in the United States by a group of people called Christian Zionists. And these are Christians, they're not Jews, they're Christians who believe that Israel should achieve the greater Israel project because this is part of God's plan. And the pawns or the Israelis are basically
51:32 everyone else, okay? So a lot of the hardware underpinning the global IT infrastructure, it's being controlled by the Israelis. So now we go to the fourth player in this great game, and that's Iran. So Iran, it is a theocracy. People are not afraid to die for what they believe in Iran. But the weakness is that it can alienate the majority of the population because only a minority are religious zealots in Iran. Most people just want to live a decent life. So if they feel that these Mullahs, the IRGC, are a threat to their peace and prosperity, then they might rise up against the Mullahs. Which is what we've seen over the years, right? Exactly. So
52:21 this is the political system of the Iranians. Their grand strategy is is to unite the Muslim world under leadership. They have three attack vectors, okay? The first attack vector are their proxies. Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Another attack vector is their asymmetrical warfare, meaning using drones and missiles to create as much economic damage as possible. And the third attack vector is their geography or their topography. They are a fortress, so it's almost impossible to invade them. So that's their Shia militiamen, these religious zealots who are not afraid to die. Essentially,
53:09 many of them could be suicide bombers. And so for them, this is a religious war. So now we're seeing how this entire battlefield unfolds across the world. So I've mapped up the grand strategy of these different nation states who will be involved in World War III. Let's look at our present situation, okay? So what we have so far is that the Russians occupied with their army in Ukraine. This is where their infantry, their artillery is based. At the same time, Russia has something called the shuttle fleet. And these are about a thousand tankers that evade sanctions around the world,
53:54 okay? And this is essentially their navy. America is the most powerful military in the world. They have the most sophisticated air supremacy, as well as control over the sea lanes. And it tries not to use infantry because that creates civilian casualties and that pisses everyone off in America, okay? The Israelis are essentially a mercenary army align with the American empire, doing the bidding of the American empire. It's fighting in against Lebanon as well as Iran. The Iranians, they don't have much of an air force, but they use a lot of drones to threaten. So this is where we are so far. According
54:41 to the grand strategy, we can predict how they will make their moves over the next few months or next few years. America doesn't really care about this war in Iran. Because what America wants to do is force the entire world to become dependent on American weapons and resources. And you do that in two ways. The first is you control the strategic choke points of the world. And they include the Sheryl of Hormuz. But you also want to control the Sheryl of Malacca, or over here, because that blocks off East Asia. You also want to control the Panama Canal. You also want to control Greenland. You also want to control the strength of Gibraltar. You can see the American Navy expanding outwards
55:30 and occupying all these maritime choke points. At the same time, you want to use your technological supremacy, your aerial supremacy, your drones, to destroy the world's critical energy infrastructure. Already we're seeing all we found is being destroyed throughout the world. Or refineries. Or refineries, yes. So you, as America, you're trying to deplete the world's energy inventory, so they are forced to beg you to supply energy, right? And once this market is created, then you can build infrastructure for Venezuela. You can take over Canada. You can control Mexico. You can take over Greenland, okay? The Russians have no choice but to respond because
56:18 If the Americans are controlling the strategic choke points, your shuttle fleet is rendered redundant, useless. So how do you ship your oil around the world? Well, you have two options. I'm just going to build railways to unite the Eurasian continent, OK? And I'll transport my oil using pipelines and railways. The problem with that is not that you're vulnerable to American aero supremacy, drone attacks. So you have no choice but to arm your shuttle fleet. And now what's going to happen is this continent in the oceans between Russian shuttle fleet tankers that are trying to transport
57:06 oil around the world and these American destroyers who are trying to capture or destroy these shuttle tankers. Now the advantage that Russia has is that America doesn't have that much naval assets anymore. It used to, but not anymore. The other thing is that the world really needs energy. So you can imagine China financing the militarization of the Russian shuttle fleet. Why would, sir, why would the US try and stop Russian boats? Because in this global outlook, there are two nations that could provide weapons and resources to the rest of the world. They are Russia and they are America. So
57:53 America has become dominant. It needs to blockade Russia. And when you do that is by seizing their shuttle fleet. But if that happened, that would be an act of war. But it's already happening. Really? Yes, it's already happening. Where? Iranian tankers have been seized by the Americans and tankers are being seized in the Caribbean as well by the American Navy. Whose tankers? I believe they are Russian tankers. Yes, the United States has indeed been seizing tankers linked to Russia. A major escalation occurred earlier this year on January 7, 2026, when the US military and Coast Guard intercepted two sanctioned Shadow Fleet oil tankers. While one was seized directly in the Caribbean, the other involved a dramatic chase that started in the Caribbean and ended in
58:40 the North Atlantic. US forces captured this sanctioned tanker during a pre-dawn raid directly in the Caribbean Sea. The US military described it as stateless sanctioned dark fleet vessel, which was engaged in illicit activities. These seizures are part of Operation Southern Spear, a strict enforcement of the US embargo on Venezuelan oil exports. Both vessels were targeted for violating US sanctions by transporting illicit crude oil linked to Venezuela as well as Iran and Hezbollah. And as you point out, this is an act of war. So those were ships that didn't have a country linked to them directly. That's why they're called shuttle fleet tankers. Okay. Yes. But they're essentially Russian. But they were essentially shipping oil outside of the United States that the United States
59:30 wouldn't control. Is that kind of... That is correct, yes. Okay. Yes. So... So the US said, listen, this is our oil, get lost. That is correct, yes. So what the United States is doing is slowly expanding its global reach. And what it's doing that is by setting treaties with nations that are part of these choke points. So the threat of Malacca, recently the United States has signed a military cooperation agreement with Indonesia. And with the threat of Chipotle, the Americans have signed an agreement now with Morocco. So they are looking for the legal framework and justification to control the world's choke points, which would bring them directly in conflict with the Russian shadow fleet. So at some point you think the way that the war starts is the US Navy attacks a Russian boat. So
1:00:17 I personally believe that this will be a drawn out process that, and there's no real concrete flashpoint because not only are Russian shuttle flankers, shuttle fleet tankers being seized, but remember, Russian oil-wave miners are being destroyed by Ukrainian drones. And the Russians believe that it is NATO that is responsible for the sabotage. So what do you think the catalyst moment is when this all kicks off? I think we're already in the catalyst moment. I think we're already in World War III. Because this conflict, it's going to expand outwards into a global conflict. And there's nothing anyone can do to stop this, right? Because, again, you have these different competing visions of how the world should work. And the Russians and Americans are already at conflict with
1:01:02 each other. So the next step will be the Russians come into this war on the side of the Iranians. You think that's going to happen? I think that's going to happen. Because according to Russian grand strategy, you have no choice but to save the Iranians. Because you're trying to promote this view that the world is split between the spiritual and the material. The Americans are the antichrist. The Americans support individual hedonism. Whereas we Russians, we believe in humanity. We believe in goodness. We believe in community, right? So if you believe, if that is your argument, if that's your grand strategy, then you have a moral obligation, a moral imperative to help the Iranians in their time of need. And in fact, Prime Minister Arachi of Iran has recently visited Putin in Moscow.
1:01:50 Putin personally received him and said to Arachi, we, the Russian people, admire your determination, your resolve against the Americans. And I think that is a sign that Putin has entered the chat and that the Russians will start to help the Iranians as this war progresses. So let's go back to this map, okay? And the Americans have a three-pronged strategy to strangle Iran. The first is to use ground forces to establish foreign operating bases to incite ethnic violence in the country. The second is to block officers who move and cut off Iranian financing. The third is to
1:02:38 strangle Iran and cause the people to rise up against the government. Okay? The Russians, so if things stay as they are now, America wins, easily. But If Russia were to enter the war on behalf of the Iranians, the first thing that Russia would do is provide Tehran with reinforcement from the Caspian Sea, right? Because the Americans want to knock out Tehran's capacity to provide food, water, and electricity to its people. But for the Caspian Sea, the Russians can support the Iranians. But not only that, and this is much more important, if the Russians were to come in You could also bring the Chinese into the war on behalf of the Iranians. And the Chinese could use the Belt and Road Initiative,
1:03:26 basically the railway system, to reinforce Tehran from the east. So now you can never strangle Tehran because the Russians and the Chinese are reinforcing Tehran. Then what the Russians could do is provide financing to the Iranians. Basically, the Chinese and the Russians can say to Iranians, Don't worry about financing. We will give you enough financing for you to continue this war for as long as you want. And we'll use our resources as collateral for this financing. And the third thing, and this is actually the most important, is that Russia could put Iran under its nuclear umbrella. And this would negate the
1:04:12 use of tactical nuclear weapons. The Israelis and the Americans, if they really felt under pressure, if they really put a corner, they could always choose to use tactical nuclear weapons. The Russians were involved, that negates that option, right? So if the Russians get involved in this war, they bring the Chinese, they provide the resources and the financing to continue this war for as long as it takes, right? And now the Americans need to expand this war all in the world to try now to topple the government in Russia. because the Russians are the main backers of the Iranians. And you're predicting that Russia will get involved
1:04:58 here? According to the grand strategy of Russia, the Russians have no choice but to get involved. Because what will happen is that if you look at this map, if Iran were to be conquered by the Americans or the Israelis, the entire southern flank of the Russians are now exposed. possible attack. And that's something that the Russians would never allow to happen. The sovereign fact. So this from underneath. Basically, right? But not only that, but the Americans already have close relations with Azerbaijan. And they already have bases in Turkmenistan as well as Uzbekistan, right? So you can see how once the Americans can strike this area, they can now attack Russia from the south. But what's most important is
1:05:48 the issue of global trade, where a counter to America's naval blockade is by creating a Eurasian trade bloc that involves Iran, Russia, and China. You look at Russia's north-south corridor, right? If you look at China's, if you look at Russia's north-south corridor, it runs through Iran. If Russia wants to access the Middle East as well as Africa, it has to go through Iran. Look at China's bottom-road initiative, it goes through Iran as well. So by taking out Iran, you've blockaded both Russia and China. 70% of people who add something to their online cart never actually buy it. And that number is based on over 10 years of research. But what I think is even more interesting is what the Baymard Institute discovered. They're
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