0:00 Israel and the United States, but mostly Israel, could do whatever it wanted because it had a qualitative edge militarily and was backed by the United States. So, it could bomb its neighbors. It could murder people, conduct massacres in Lebanon and so forth uh with no fear of being of retaliation, effective retaliation. But that era is over. Uh Iran has now declared openly that it will retaliate for any attack on the elements of the resistance that it supports. This includes Ansarah in the Houthis in Yemen who have now reinstituted they say a blockade against
0:48 Israeli affiliated shipping in the Red Sea. It includes in in Lebanon. It includes Hamas which is uh in the in in Gaza. Meanwhile, of course, Israel is conducting a very aggressive ethnic cleansing campaign uh in the West Bank. And we've just been informed that the number of Palestinians who've been murdered by settlers over the past two years is unprecedentedly large. It's over 1,200 people, about one of whom are children. Um so um um Israel now um faces retaliation for anything it does. Um and
1:33 the United States which has been aiding and abetting Israel also faces retaliation. So, um, when the helicopter was shot down in the, if it was shot down, I think it was in the straight of Hormuz, um, the helicopter was part of an operation aimed at helping certain ships to get through the Iranian blockade. Um, and it was shot down by an Iranian drone, very likely. It's possible that it was a false flag operation by Israel because Israel wants the war to resume. So Donald Trump dutifully bombed uh Iran, not to much effect. Iran's retaliation was swift and it began with the
2:21 destruction of a key radar uh in Bahrain which is essential to the defense of Bahrain and Kuwait and American military operations in in the region and it also bombed Israel. And so uh what we now have um is a clear pattern where any aggressive action by either Israel or the United States will be will be subject to retaliation and not just any retaliation. Uh Iran has basically adopted the Israeli standard. International law says you have a right of reprisal. If you are attacked, you may counterattack, but you can only do so proportionately. Israel has never respected that
3:07 limitation. It has always attacked disproportionately. In other words, trying to do much more damage to those who attacked it than it itself suffered. But that too is over now. Iran is has adopted a disproportionate retaliation uh uh system uh in an interest of deterrence. Um, and so, um, I'm just talking about the way this so-called ceasefire, which is not a ceasefire, it is an agreed deescalation. We need a word for that, perhaps a better word. Uh, I would say a ceasefire with Israeli characteristics. That is, >> I think that's a perfect description of
3:52 what's going on. a ceasefire in which Israel or the United States do not stop firing but the other side is expected to stop. And we see this in Gaza for example where the so-called ceasefire uh was uh to leave Israel in temporary control of 53% of the territory and then to [clears throat] withdraw coincidental with the disarmament of Hamas. But Israel has not withdrawn. had first expanded its control to 60% and now by order of prime minister Netanyahu and has taken 70% of GSA and Hamas has therefore not not disarmed. So one-sided ceasefires ceasefires with
4:38 Israeli characteristics don't work and um so we're in constant danger of escalation and that isn't over. I mean it may be that this is a hopeful moment when Iran says that some progress is actually being made and I think Nema you can correct me but I believe this is the first time that Iran has made such a statement that there actually was progress being made and that the possibility of an agreement. Um I don't I have not heard this from Iran before. So that is hopeful. Um, I don't know where this leaves Donald Trump and the United States. Uh, whatever happens, I think the United States has been humiliated. And more to the point, um,
5:24 Israel cannot ever again count on the United States to join it in attacking Iran. The costs are just too high. Why did Trump suddenly reverse his uh plan to attack uh Iran and he said take Kar Island? Uh very simple I think. First if there was indeed some progress in the talks that would justify holding off. Um but more important I believe the US military told him that it would be catastrophic to do what he proposed to do. there would be huge American casualties in any infantry operation in Kar Island or elsewhere in Iran. Um the United States has already lost some 40
6:11 aircraft apparently in this war without achieving anything. There would be further losses because Iran has upgraded its air defenses um perhaps with Chinese or Russian help. We don't know. Um but uh apparently its air defenses are more effective. Uh and contrary to what Donald Trump has continuously claimed and what in the propaganda that the Israeli government has inflicted on the Israeli population, Iran has more missiles now than it than it did uh not at the outset of the war, but it has at least 70% of its missile arsenal. Intact. The launchers to to
6:56 fire it are there. Uh the openings to underground facilities where the missiles are stored are once again open and ready to go. And Iran will savage Israel as well as the Gulf Arabs if there is a resumption of the fighting. So, um, not only would there be enormous American casualties, which is why Donald Trump, I believe, said the American public wouldn't stomach the operation, meaning they could not put up with that level of casualties. But, uh, not the Gulf Arabs um, are t sick and tired of this. There is a story in the Washington Post this morning that at the outset of this war, Qatar tried to cut a deal with Iran. I think you and I probably talked about that possibility
7:43 at the time. Um and um to you know fa the Gulf Arabs are now faced with a nasty choice. They can make their peace with Iran and they in order to do that they have to remove American forces from their territory. those forces can't protect them and uh that's now known to them and they're not even uh they're not configured to protect those uh countries. They are protect configured to attack Iran. So Iran insists on the removal of the American presence for if if there's to be an agreement. Um they the Gulf Arabs have that as one choice. Another choice is to lose uh their wealth because their petroleum and gas
8:30 facilities are destroyed at least for some time. They would be out of business and impoverished or even u uh Iran might match the stupid scentcom attack on uh water supplies in Pesam Island um in which case they would lose their very ability to exist. So and I think the same is true of Israel which depends heavily on dissalinated water. So Iran holds the cards to parallel the statement of Donald Trump and u that is enough to persuade him that um whatever however bad the outcome is from his point of view negotiation is preferable to more war.
9:16 Now Iran obviously doesn't want the war to resume. It suffered huge damage. Uh it wants to rebuild. And that brings me to the $300 billion re plan for reconstructing Iran. I think this is Kushner and Witco trying to make a profit off Iran's distress. I don't think this has anything to do with reality. The way in which Iran will be reconstructed is through its own efforts with the benefit of to of fees for passage through the straight of Hormuz and with help from other countries Russia in particular Turkey which has a
10:04 fantastic fantastically capable uh construction industry. uh and uh and I think you will see a regional u effort to rebuild Iran and it may be that the investment opportunities that that generates will be attractive to the Gulf Arabs. Um I don't think um Wickoff and Kushner need to apply. So I'll stop here. >> When it comes >> Yeah, it seems that they can hear. Yeah. Ambassador, what has happened with the case of the yesterday Donald Trump said he's gonna invade the Kark Island as a part of the operation then because you have to have some sort of support at
10:50 least within the Republican party to do that. It's it doesn't seem that the Republican party, you know, the hardcore of the Republican party is supporting that. We had Republican Senator John Kennedy saying that this is little by little turning into new Vietnam if they do that and there no if they do that they have to go ahead and send more and more and it this is the recipe for disaster for the United States. Then he said, "But he doesn't have the intelligence that Donald Trump has." But it doesn't seem that he has any sort of support for the ground invasion because that would be hugely hugely consequential for his administration. >> Well, he did say that the American people would not stomach the
11:37 consequences of the operation and and that no doubt reflects a dialogue between him and senators like Kennedy. Uh but there are other senators of course Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton, uh Ted Cruz, uh who are out and out war mongers um and uh uh who no doubt would support such a thing, but they're very much a minority. And um all of the polling data shows this has been a disaster, not just for Donald Trump, but for the Republican party. And it's about to become a bigger disaster because we're running out of of our strategic petroleum reserve and the ability to moderate uh price of of oil that that provides. Gas is a different
12:24 matter that is consumed locally and it's not so subject to global pricing. Uh in fact, American gas has replaced cuttery gas in India which you know the gas industry in the United States is crowing about. Um but uh and the United States has emerged as the world's largest exporter of oil uh displacing Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation. This is a temporary thing of course but um you know there it is a bit of a silver lining in [clears throat] what is otherwise a very dark cloud indeed. In about two and a half, three weeks, uh there will be a huge spike in prices of gasoline [clears throat] at the pump uh gas stations in the United States. And
13:11 um there will be a huge further spike in global oil prices. Um and I think every economist who studied this uh projects that happening. So time is running out for Donald Trump. uh he has to do something or the entire global economy will be brought down in recession and the United States uh consumer base including many members of MAGA who are workingclass Americans will turn against him. So I think uh yeah the the question of political support is very relevant. We've already seen the House of Representatives vote a very weak version of the war powers um
13:57 implementation. The Senate has yet to act, but it's basically one Republican defection away from following the House. Oh, that would require Donald Trump to veto uh an effort to end the fighting. That would be enormously unpopular. So I think he's in a box. It's a box he himself constructed. Uh there's no easy way out. And u he obviously hopes that Iran will agree to something that allows him to save a little bit of face as he departs the war. What was so strange about the attack, American attack on Iran, that it came
14:43 after that Donald Trump somehow posted that it was a an Apache helicopter being hit by Iranian drones. Later on, CNN reported that it was a Iranian drone. Then we have to respond. Let's assume that Apache helicopter was hit by one of these Iranian drones. The destroyer is, right? But two pilots are alive. They were not injured during the attack. That was somehow how is that going to happen physically? >> The other question the attacks came right after the Iranian response to Israeli attack which it seems that was so hard the Iranian attack on Israel. That's why I think the two things came
15:30 together and the United States attack. No, I think I agree with you. Apparently the the drone, whoever fired it, whether it was Iranian or Israeli or whatever it was, um lodged in the helicopter without exploding and the pilots were therefore able to u get out and and eventually um be rescued apparently by an underwater drone, a drone um of some sort. Uh so um uh but you know the real uh issue here is uh that the United States is not able to manage the straight of Hormuz. Iran can u you know there have been Donald Trump claims that there have been all sorts of oil tankers coming out of the Persian
16:16 Gulf. Um, in fact, there may have been about three a day coming out. Probably not Iranian oil, probably Iraqi or Saudi oil. Um, um, has smuggled out basically despite the Iranian effort to stop them. Um, Iran has of course attacked tankers and and so has the US. Um the US just killed three Indian sailors on a seen much of an apology for that. Um but uh that is a tragedy. Um so uh I I think you know the here we are um as I've said before this is really a war of attrition. Uh and you know it doesn't have to end in in
17:03 agreement. One possibility is that now that Iran has decided to retaliate against Israeli attacks on the region, not just itself, that that becomes the norm that Israel attacks and Iran rep retaliates. Well, that is fatal for Israel because let's not forget that Israel was established as a safe haven for European Jews after the World War II holocaust in Europe. Um uh and uh of course then that the establishment of the state of Israel and the way in which it was established made the continued presence of uh Jews in the Arab world difficult.
17:50 uh and mo most of them immigrated to Israel. So Arab Jews uh now make up a very substantial part of the um of the Israeli population and some of the most fanatic u uh elements in that for example Gener who is mostly Kurdish and Arab uh not not European by by heritage. So, uh, Israel has become a state that is unable to live at peace with anybody, whether it's the Palestinians or others, um, because of a paranoia that is infectious from European jewelry. European Jews were horribly treated um,
18:36 historically by Christians in Europe, and this culminated in the Nazi Holocaust. of them six million or so died. Another six million Europeans, liberals, communists, Roma, other people were also killed. But uh anyway, the the foundation of the state of Israel was to make Jews safe. But there is no place on earth that is least less safe now for Jews than Israel. And that could very well continue to be the case if there is no peace. uh Iran is not going to give up its right to retaliate uh and it's no longer intimidated by American backing of Israel. And then finally uh you know uh again going back
19:22 to American politics and the international scene we've seen the utter collapse of international support for Israel and the collapse of American public support for Israel except among diehard fanatics uh and elderly Republicans um uh who um are basically um [clears throat] functioning uh on the basis of inertia. know a concept you probably understand better than I because you're an engineer but inertia is a real force. So um this is unsustainable. Uh so is for Israel this this this moment Israel thought that eliminating Iran would guarantee its existence.
20:10 Instead it has created an existential challenge to Israel and Israel needs to make peace including in Lebanon. because Iran uh has uh extended its protection to Lebanon and um demanded as the original 14 points that have been published suggested a peace in all of Lebanon, no attacks on Hzbollah uh and uh an end to the genocide in Gaza. And so um Israel's at a crossroads. that really needs to make decisions that it is clearly unprepared to make. The Israeli public continues to back every kind of
20:57 horrific action [clears throat] by its military in Lebanon, even as the Israeli military fall apart with increasing desertion rates, people not reporting for duty when they're called up, um, and taking about 10 casualties a day in Lebanon, which doesn't sound like much compared to the death toll in Gaza, but is a significant burden on Israeli families in public opinion. Uh and so finally, um you know, Donald Trump's political reputation is at stake here. Um but Netanyahu is much in even greater peril. Um you know, he's going to end up either in jail or uh escaping uh jail by
21:44 exiling himself to some other country. I don't know who would want to take him at this point. Yeah, he may go to Ukraine. [laughter] >> Well, it's possible. Um, but is Ukraine going to be in condition to receive him? U, you know, I mean, there's a lot of ridiculous comment now. Ukraine turning the tide and so forth. No, it isn't. Ukraine has proven very very brave, very innovative, very effective beyond most people's u ability to imagine. That's not unimportant and and Ukrainians should be given credit for that. But um successfully holding off the Russians is
22:30 not for a time is not a victory. Uh, and I think we're about to see a Russian push uh to end this uh this war on Russian terms. We'll see. Uh, so uh will the uh neo-Nazi crowd that currently um dominate Ukrainian politics still be there to receive NetanyO? Isn't there an irony in the prime minister of a Jewish dominated state seeking refuge among neo-Nazis? Anyway, I mean uh this is a very strange time in history. I think >> I think the reality of the Persian Gulf and basically the straight
23:16 of for has somehow influenced the mindset in GCC countries because in the latest attack Israeli attack on Iran Saudi Arabia it seems we don't know Saudi Arabia banned Israel to use its airspace against Iran. So this is the moment that the United States is in the region. Just imagine Donald Trump withdrawing the aircraft carriers, all of these weapons in the region. What would be the day after the United States doing this and Israel is going to be alone? Are they going to continue with these sort of attacks? >> Well, I think very difficult, >> very difficult. Um, you should discuss this with uh Larry Johnson and Larry Wilkerson and maybe we'll do that today.
24:03 I don't know. But um um the the Iran Israeli air force cannot do what it has done in Iran without refueling by the US air force. So the key is not Saudi Arabia, it's Iraq where the US air force controls the skies. But Iraq is not uh willing to take to accommodate that anymore. Uh it's not just uh militias who are attacking American bases. The Iraqi people, the Iraqi parliament wants the US out. Uh so um we're looking at a broad collapse of the American presence in the region. Um that is the
24:49 Gulf Arabs can't afford to maintain US bases on their territory and will not. They will cut a deal with Iran um of some sort. um uh the new security architecture which um people in the region hope will keep any external great power out. No Chinese, no Russians, no Americans, no Europeans. Um uh the region seeks strategic autonomy. Um so but in as part of this uh the American position in Iraq is collapsing. uh and uh maybe Syria has you know found it convenient to u u engage in public relations relationship building with the United
25:36 States but it is not in the American camp. Lebanon certainly does not. Lebanese have no reason to love the United States, which has been fully supportive of Israel's depradations in Lebanon, which have drawn driven 1.2 million people away from their homes. [clears throat] Israel is currently engaged in raising parts of tire sur in Arabic. I don't know what it is in Persian but um the uh so uh nobody in Sur okay yeah I figured you know because >> even though Farsy is Indo-Uropean language you have a lot of you have a lot of Arabic in it
26:22 >> like Turkish you know I can >> I can sit and listen to a speech in Farsy and pick out words I don't know Farsy at all but um >> you know so anyway um So, so, uh, Lebanon, um, uh, which has been very very pro-western, uh, is now, um, in a in a state of drift. Who knows where it will end up? uh the confessional constitutional uh arrangements in Lebanon which the French contrived. Um placing a Christian in the presidency and uh a Sunni as the speaker uh of the prime minister and and and a Shiite as the speaker in parliament.
27:08 um this is no longer viable and uh Lebanon need is in a constitutional crisis with the Lebanese government collaborating with Israel against Hezbollah which represents a very substantial number of Lebanese. So uh the whole region is being rewritten and I guess um I guess I would say that from the outset Iran said that any war would be regional in character. It would not be bilateral and um that mirrored Israeli the Israeli approach which is regional. I mean Israel is trying to expand its borders in all directions. Uh Israel is the only
27:54 state in the UN that doesn't have borders. Its borders are very elastic. Uh they keep expanding. Part of Syria is now effectively under Israeli jurisdiction. Southern Lebanon they are attempting to enex. Gaza they are squeezing and attempting to produce ethnic uh cleansing and resettlement by um Israeli Jews. Um, Israel has lost the support of the international community. It is now the most boycotted state on the planet. It's the most loathed society. Uh, its more extreme politicians are being subjected to immigration bans in Europe can get
28:41 visas. uh this despite the fact that Europe for a long time was troubled by uh guilt and vulnerable to Israeli charges of anti-semitism. But anti-semitism as a charge has lost its sting uh because uh of what those who levy that char level leveled that charge Zionists uh are doing to ordinary human beings. So, so I think Israel's reached a the end of a road and it's going to have to make some decisions and it doesn't seem to be capable of that. So, we may see the slow collapse of Israel as a state, its depopulation. uh it's withering away much as the
29:26 Christian crusader kingdoms in the 11th and 12th centuries withered away when they lost their external support and fed failed to make peace with their Muslim and some Christian [clears throat] neighbors. Yeah, Donald Trump just retweeted what the Iranian foreign minister put tweeted on X and confirming what the Iranian said. The Iranian foreign minister basically >> let's hope this is coming to an end because it has been a disaster for everyone. Um you know and Iran may have outlasted the United States. I think it has held its breath longer than we we can do. But it's been battered. It's
30:13 been very badly battered. Nobody comes out on top here. Israel's in difficulty. The Gulf Arabs have suffered damage. Um they are going to have to make difficult policy decisions. Uh and Iran has a lot of reconstruction to do. The United States has been humiliated. And uh one of the reasons that Donald Trump probably refrained from renewing the attack on Iran is his own military told him we don't have the ammunition. We don't have the interception capability and uh therefore if you do this we will not be able to defend Taiwan for example if we want to do that which I'm not sure
30:58 Donald Trump does want to do. >> [clears throat] >> um you know he's being accused of a grave crime with regard to to the Taiwan issue that is making a strategic judgment. Uh apparently that's that's a crime. You should keep doing whatever you're doing no matter how stupid and self-destructive it is or you know there's something wrong with you. That's that's that. What is happening, ambassador, when it comes to the Iranian strategy in the region, they want to improve, for example, Iraq. Iraq was so important in this war for Iran and they're trying to improve the air defense system of Iraq. That's happening right now. They want to >> make them capable of nobody can use
31:44 their airspace to attack Iran or to defend themselves. >> And that's going on as we talk. >> Now, that's of course that of course makes perfect sense. As I said earlier, the the way from uh Israel to Iran is across Syria and Iraq. Well, and the Iraqi airspace has been controlled by the US. Iraqis need to control their own airspace. And of course, Syria, that should be the case, too. But Syria really doesn't have the capability to do anything. Um it's been so savaged by uh interventions from all directions. I mean, what a horror. uh a war that has driven huge numbers of people out of Syria, left the country destroyed,
32:32 destroyed its military, reinforced its ethnic and religious divisions, and um basically subjected it to subjugation by Israel and Turkey.
