Bitcoin & The Pi Cycle Top Indicator - A Crucial Update

0:00 In today's video, we're going to be focusing on the Bitcoin PI cycle top indicator, which is effectively a collection of these two moving averages. And when they cross over, they give a high accuracy prediction within just a few days when the Bitcoin bull market peak is going to occur. And in fact, in 2021, this was one of the very few indicators which did accurately predict a bull market top. So worth analyzing. So we'll be talking about that in a lot of detail in today's video. Subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future. Like this video if you enjoy content like this going forward. So the PI cycle top indicator a really accurate crossover indicator which gives us a bull market peak time frame within just 5 days. And this is effectively the 111day moving average crossing over the 350day moving average multiplied by two.

0:48 And whenever they cross over bull market peaks occur. But as you can see here, if we move on to this chart right over here, there's no projected cross at this time. So what does that effectively mean? And the main thing really to focus on at this point in time is the crossover. What needs to happen for that crossover to occur? And does it mean the parallel nature of these moving averages propagated into the future doesn't mean we're never going to see the bull market uh peak? Well, of course, there are cycles in in Bitcoin's uh price action and we tend to see peak greed on the macro level and peak fear on the macro level as well and both produce trend reversals to the upside or downside. And

1:35 one of the things to keep in mind about this moving average here is that whenever when we saw this pullback, this price discovery correction, we actually started to see an inflection point for the PI cycle moving average here. And we then started to level out which was caused by this uptrend here. And ever since price really has been clustering at these highs of around 100k, 110K, we've started to see this PI cycle moving average flatten and actually start to curl up quite consistently and quite sharply as well. And price isn't even making any new highs. It's not covering any additional ground and it hasn't done so for a good

2:22 few months already. And yet still this Pyag moving average is actually flicking up consistently day by day. And so if we were to start to break out to new highs and rally even higher then this moving average would flick up even sharper. The curl up would be even steeper. But at the moment it's just consolidation that's lifting this moving average. And so if we're going to think about this as a range from 100 to 110 111k where price is consolidating for the time being really since almost late May miday if this consolidation continues in a downward fashion for example worst case scenario then you know as a function of

3:07 time we're going to get closer to this pycle moving average support and it tends to act as a bargain. in region, especially when we see downside deviations below there. So, we can maybe even cut through this sort of this moving average and and continue to revisit the lower ranges later on. But let's say we just consolidate here for for a whole month and nothing really happens, which would be a little bit depressing here in the market, but let's say that that happens. We'd actually get close to that PI cycle moving average. And if the PI cycle moving average figures as a strong support just like it did right over here on this key retest which preceded a 20% move or so. If it acts as a support back then in the

3:53 future then that could actually act as a ascending triangle of some sort where this trend line would act as a support. This would be the resistance and price would be consolidating and compressing in between these two diagonals effectively in between these two levels. But that would be probably the worst scenario just to see consolidation continue. But one of the things to really talk about is the inflection point of this moving average here. So we've seen that just by this 20% move towards the upside, this moving average started to curl up by 18° since miday. So, in a month and a half or so, we've started to see this moving average catch up as a result of this 20%

4:41 move from which we've just been consolidating for for several weeks now. But it's this move and then consolidation that has lifted the MA2 curl up by 18°. And this is probably going to continue as long as we continue to maintain these prices because these prices are quite high and they're going to be lifting this moving average which effectively averages out the past 111 days worth of moving averages which also includes these low prices at the 70s low7s mid high70s. So we're going to be seeing a curl up as a result of these high prices going forward. And if things continue in this vein, we're going to be slightly curling up in terms of this moving average. But what if we're going to see a breakout in Bitcoin's price

5:29 action? Because at this point in time, we're going to see a 10 10°ree difference 10° angle difference. So if we're going to propagate this as this degree angle, so that's already 29° overall. If we add another 10°, then that gets us into a bull market peaking zone of February 2026. So that's for all the people who think we're going to have a cycle extension to the point where we extend into a bare market year of 2026. And I've been talking about this in the previous video as to cycle extension, how to think about cycle extension and bull market peaks in general. But if we were to be seeing that sort of

6:15 midFebruary 2026 bull market peak, then maybe we'd have to have a similar move of some sort. 20% maybe maybe a little bit less than that. 15% to to lift uh the 29° angle by 10° to a 39° angle. Maybe a 15% move to 125k would be able to do it. And I know that this is quite reductionist and simplistic. These are just these are just rough figures here, but just showing how to think about this indicator because what if if we do indeed see a 15% move occur and that really lifts this curl up by an additional 10° then that would actually have a meaningful change and shift on

7:01 when that bull market peak would occur. Remember at this point in time we're not really seeing any bull market peak occur based on this pycle top indicator. Whereas if we see price rally quite a bit, then we'd actually see that bull market indicator finally cross over. But one of the things to talk about is how can we bring that bull market peak even closer to the future. And as you if you watch my video about the bull market progress indicator and about general historical bull markets then I've been talking about how historically we tend to see a peak in September or October. So if you haven't checked that video out feel free to check it out of course and generally subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future. But

7:47 if we're going to be going along with historical havinging cycles and say mid October is going to be that bull market peaking moment for for Bitcoin, then we'd need to see a real curl up quite substantial a shift of up to 52° really and maybe that would have to entail a slightly higher move in terms of price action. 21% perhaps for example, especially if we're going to then consolidate at those highs. Maybe that would be enough of a move to prompt this curl up in price action. But what if we have to consider a midepptember 2025 bull market peak? Then

8:32 perhaps we have to see a stronger move all the way to 142K for example. And so that would really really curl the moving average up quite substantially. So one of the things to really talk about or keep in mind is that we need to avoid lower prices. We need to avoid corrective periods in the market for Bitcoin to start raising this Pyc. Of course, people may be thinking to themselves, well, does this PI cycle indicator have to work always? Will see a bull market peak without this crossover occurring? And maybe that will be the case, but I feel like even this PI cycle indicator,

9:18 it will probably get close to some degree to crossing over with the with with one another with the moving averages crossing over one another. It's likely we're going to be seeing these moving averages at least converge close enough for a crossover. Maybe not necessarily crossing over overall, but maybe it's something to keep in mind as we approach the final innings of the bull market because there's still technically quite a bit of upside still left as per the Bitcoin road map which I mentioned in another video as well and continued price discovery where we don't see much resistance ahead that's going to be necessary to lift the moving average a little bit more And by the same token, it's going to lift this

10:05 green moving average ever so subtly as well, but not so much to the extent that we're going to see the sensitive moving average get curled up. And for a November 2025 peak, which ties in with that previous video, of cycle extension, it would only require 47 degrees change, for example, or really in total, that's going to be from 29 where the moving average is now. It would be overall a 47°. So that's effectively 20° more. So a 20° move would see a bull market peak take place in November. So what sort of price move has to happen for the the moving average to curl up by such a degree by 20° to be exact. So strong

10:53 moves will cause a curl up quite drastically here. And the final innings of a bull market for Bitcoin, they tend to be quite parabolic. And so perhaps once Bitcoin is able to break that final resistance of 111K or so, then that would open up the rest of the Bitcoin road map, as I call it, the second price discovery uptrend going forward. And that would prompt this curl up. And if we continue to propagate these moving averages, that would bring the curl closer to a crossover and the bull market peak closer to us into the future. And so will we see a bull market peak in midepptember based on this pi cycle

11:40 indicator? It might be a little bit too soon. But as per traditional having cycles, it really depends on what the phases take place. what sort of phases take place going forward because we've seen that first price discovery uptrend take place. We've seen the first price discovery correction take place as well. If we're going to see the next price discovery uptrend take place and then a second price discovery correction take place then then Bitcoin needs to hurry up to fulfill those phases going forward and that's also going to be impacting these moving averages quite drastically as well. So having said that that's about it for today's video. Thanks so much for tuning in. Subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future. Like this video if you enjoy this one and of course feel free to check out my other video as well.