EURUSD SELL TODAY FINALLY!? | Daily Forex Market Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, GOLD, DXY & More | Ep. 678

0:00 A very good morning and welcome back to another daily market outlook. EuroUSD has been pushing down lower as of this Asian session into the London session and currently shorts are starting to play out. Good morning guys. My name is Fabio and as always we are diving into the major dollar pairs and of course gold. Now first of all to start with we've seen some further downside from Euro USD thanks to US dollar strength which has come forward from two main reasons. mainly being the fact that Israel again has been carrying out air strikes and in addition to that, Trump has been spitting the overall tariff talk once again throughout the markets mentioning which countries have not yet reached out to him and in addition to that that he will be imposing new

0:46 additional tariffs. This has been pushing the dollar strength and therefore the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar mainly down lower but also eurousd. Now, as we know, EuroUSD has two main levels of liquidity and I'm using a different broker chart today. So, I'm using the Wanda data feed. Therefore, my normal chart testings are not updated uh because there is an error. But what we can see here is that overall this swing high has now been taken out. And after a take out of a swing high, what can we expect? We can expect a potential pullback in towards the downside. Now, where would you then expect a potential pullback in towards? Well, into a weekly imbalance, which is situated over here. Now, obviously the weekly fractal is bullish in between the current fractal low and the current fractal high. So, if we do see a retrace down lower, then this area of imbalance

1:32 is good for a potential long. Now, as I mentioned last week, this is not kind of like the ideal area to go long from. Reason number one is because you're just trading above a liquidity high. And reason number two is because when you go long, you preferably want to be going long within an area of demand. Now, here we're obviously not inside a demand zone, so you would preferably want to see some downside. Now from a weekly perspective therefore some further downside would be preferable. Now looking at the daily time frame the daily swing structure first of all what is that? Well the swing structure is from this swing low in towards this swing high and we can then use the premium versus discount and then we can see that we are trading at a premium meaning that we are trading above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Now in an impulsive market the market never

2:17 near needs to retrace all the way down before heading back up. But obviously you preferably yeah want to kind of like watch out with going long inside premium because at any point in time can the market retrace especially once you're at a weekly swing high and once you start seeing um that there are fundamental align or there is fundamental alignment for a potential pullback. Now looking here at the daily time frame we can see that we're currently still trading in this imbalance. So there's not a lot to worry about for let's say the overall selloff. But once this overall imbalance gets taken out then definitely I'll be looking for a deeper retracement. But mainly looking by the way here at the daily we can still see the fractal structure is bullish and obviously the swing structure is bullish as well. Now for a trade ultimately you want alignment in the sense that you want the

3:03 swing structure to be bullish and you want the fractal structure to be bullish. However, at this current let's say moment in time this is not the ideal area to trade your USD because what you ultimately want to be doing is you want to be going long from weekly demand. So weekly demand would for example be inside here. You want to be going long inside a daily demand zone. Well that weekly demand zone is also a daily demand zone over here. Obviously you have some daily demand over here. But this is again very high in the premium and therefore not the ideal long opportunity in my opinion. So overall you want to go long from an area of demand. So preferably what you would want to see is you want to see a retracement all the way into discount. Once price is then in discount you want to see the market structure shift. You want to see a fresh area of demand form and then you want the daily fractal to also be up and you want the swing to

3:49 also be up. So the swing is here breaker structure swing low swing high. So this is the impulse. Now you want to see the retracement and then you want at all times the swing will obviously stay bullish until this low breaks. But then you also want the fractal structure to be bullish and that would ideally happen then in a discount level with the high probability longs then coming kind of like over there. So there is some potential uh conclusion of the story. There is some potential for EuroUSD to head down lower as we can see as of this morning we are starting to sell off but for now the current fractal low still remains bullish. So until the current fractal low is broken. So once the fractal low is broken then I'll start looking at a potential pullback trade to maybe take out these lows trade kind of like in towards this demand and then take my first potential long position

4:35 inside there. Then if it does retrace deeper, then I'll just look for another long position down over here. But again, um yeah, you you you kind of like only want to be looking for shorts once there is a little bit more alignment because for now shorts, yeah, what is the overall, let's say, um uh conviction that those shorts could play out. What's the overall confluence? Well, nothing really. Uh from a market structure perspective, the only thing that could come is if the fractal low here breaks because for now, the daily swing is bullish, the 4hour swing is bullish, the daily fractal is bullish, the 4hour fractal is bullish. There's no confluence for shorts yen in my opinion. Um and we are still situated kind of like in demand. Um so let's see what happens over here for now. For now Euro USD is still a little bit consolidative. So there's nothing really too much to worry about that it's selling off this morning. Uh for the same reason during

5:22 the New York session could just start buying up again. But only once this current fractal low would break then I would start thinking about potential shorts. Now going into the dollar index because the dollar index also tells a story guys because what we can see here from the dollar index is again what I kind of mentioned last week that the 4hour fractal remains bullish. So first of all what is the daily time frame doing? So the daily time frame overall is obviously in bearish momentum in the sense that we are trending in towards the downside. Now I'm going to clean up my chart a little bit because we need to keep it extremely extremely simple. First of all, the daily time frame obviously has kind of like this imbalance candle over here with the daily fractal being bearish in between this high and this low. So it makes sense to look for shorts. However, then we look for the lower time frame overall confluence. So what's happening on the lower time frame? Well, on the lower time frame, we can clearly see that the

6:07 overall market structure remains bullish in towards the highs. The internal market structure like I like to call it because here we have the first fractal break, fractal break, fractal break, and now again current fractal low, current fractal high. We are still bullish because the overall order flow here remains bullish. Okay. So it doesn't make sense to look for those sells yet on the dollar only once we broke this current fractal low here is what I also mentioned last week. So we can see that this demand is still holding still pushing the market up higher. So it is for now likely that this current fractal high is going to be broken. At least that is what you expect. So expect the dollar to head up higher. And then what we would need to do is we would need to re-evaluate the overall short bias on the dollar once we reach higher price level. So for example, this would be a nice area of supply to keep an eye on or

6:53 let's say there's this overall buy before the sell. Then you wait for the market to come in towards there. Then you wait for the daily fractal structure to shift in your favor. So let's say you then create a supply zone and then you go to the 4 hour and then you look for the alignment because then you have the optimal overall shorting opportunity because for now the 4hour fractal remains bullish and therefore dollar longs are the only thing that currently make sense. But then you can see there's no real trade alignment with Euro USD. But there is with a different pair and that was GBPUSD because if we look at GBPUSD and let me just go back to the chart and we start on the daily time frame and we can clearly see here that it's very similar to EuroUSD in the sense that we have let's say a major swing high over here. We take out that major swing high. So what do you expect after taking out a major swing high? You expect a retracement. So then going into

7:39 the daily time frame, we can clearly see here that the daily time frame provided us with a change of character. So you get the push up, push down, push up, boom, push down, supply forms, we retrace, and then you can see here, we tap exactly into the supply and then we start selling off. So for me, if you are looking for those dollar longs, GPUSD is then the ideal trade when compared to EuroUSD. And I can again see that the overall data feed is not working here on forex.com. So we can see that overall GPUSD is pushing down lower. So some nice price action again with this overall daily supplies on playing out and pushing the market down lower. So for myself, what I'm now looking at is this potential area for GBPUSD. This sell for the big buy up as the target of those overall shorts in towards the

8:26 downside. So let's keep an eye on those shorts for GPUSD. Obviously the overall entry has already occurred. I mentioned last week, I think it was on Friday, that if you were looking for a short position, wait for the 1 hour change of character. Well, that happened over here in towards the downside. Then we were traced pretty much into this imbalance over here. And then from there, we started selling off intowards the Asian session last night. So overall, I'll be looking for further downside continuation on pound dollar uh in alignment with one the daily fractal structure, two the 4hour fractal structure. Um and uh number three obviously that dollar bullishness that we've been seeing and then also what's happening on the 1 hour time frame, it makes sense. Uh and then also with this daily demand zone still open, that would kind of like be my overall target now for GPUSD if you are in those shorts.

9:13 The only thing that you have to keep in mind is that the dollar index is still fractal bearish and the overall swing and momentum is obviously still bearish as well. But the dollar bullishness currently is yeah fueled by those tariff uncertainties. Now going into ADUSD, we can see that ADUSD has been selling off aggressively as well. So you can clearly see in these kind of market conditions that these risk on pairs blood the heaviest um when we when we yeah hear kind of like uncertainty surrounding what uh let's say just geopolitical situations. Now looking at ADUSD it's a little bit of a complicated pair. Weekly time frame not really interesting to look at. Daily time frame what we can see here is that it's nearly going to break this fractal low. Once this fractal low breaks then yeah potentially we can start looking for some more shorts in towards the downside. uh if that were to also be in

10:00 alignment with the 4 hour. So the 4hour time frame did a nice kind of like yeah let's say wick into this imbalance area over here uh last night and on the 1 hour time frame you can clearly see and I know a lot of you will have loved seeing this during let's say a London session where we sweep the liquidity above the overall high and then we set off in towards the downside. However, this is a gap opening. I can see this is the 11:00 candle. So it's kind of impossible to get in on the exact wick. Um but obviously you could get in on let's say the overall low breaks here on the 1 hour time frame uh with the overall momentum. But for ADUSD it is looking good for now for that for the downside to pretty much take out these ascending lows. Uh so let's see how far this can drop for now. I'll be keeping an eye on the dollar index for those

10:46 targets. But for now I wouldn't be looking at any longs. Um going into NDUSD we can see that NDUSD has been selling off extremely aggressively. Now, NDUSD is actually a more beautiful one. I talked about this last week as well. Um, overall, we were obviously like trading at a premium. Um, so you want to be looking for that potential pullback trade. Now, looking at the 4hour time frame, it provided us with some really good price action where we have seen pretty much the market, let's say, come above this overall high here. So, let's say then this is the swing low. This is a swing high. The dollar index obviously started to reverse which was the confluence for some potential bullishness. Again, I'm on the wrong chart because the data is not working um on uh on Forex.com. But what we can see again is the breaker structure in

11:32 towards the upside. We're trading at a premium. So you expect a pullback. After the breaker structure, again, you also expect the pullback. Then here you have the first fractal break, second fractal break, and then obviously supply here in control. And then again here supply in control. So overall order flow playing out beautifully. And then you can obviously look at the 1 hour time frame for some good entries. Um there was some really good and clean price action again as well here in towards Friday where the fractal structure remained respected and pushed the market down lower. So overall obviously the move has now pretty much been made. So now you're kind of like shifting from okay I want to continue shorting this to where is let's say NDUSD going to bottom out. So, I'll just be focusing on this daily demand zone over there. And then let's see how the 4hour kind of like reacts once all of these lows are taken out. And then we'll

12:17 maybe look for the change of character to then look for some let's say potential longs once again going into dollar yen, dollar Swiss and gold. Dollar yen um not too fast as of yet or not moving too much as of yet. Um it's yeah, let's say pushing up again. It's kind of like what I've discussed as well last week that is let's say a very consolidative pair at the moment fighting to safe haven assets fighting against each other mainly trading based on interest rate interest rate differentials. So therefore dollar yen is pushing up a little bit higher and the overall um yeah let's say order flow for now here on the 4hour time frame seems to be holding as well. You can see that this refined 4hour sub for the buy here has now pushed the market up higher. Um so for now obviously bullish and uh I wouldn't be looking to sell

13:03 this yet. Um we'll be need well we need to look to see what happens here but for now the 4hour remains bullish and you can very clearly see the overall clear reversal pattern in towards the highs retracement exactly into demand and just shoots up. So yeah no sells at all over here to be taken with NFP. Obviously last week on Thursday it pushed up higher heavily after that good US data. Um so now just wait for your potential further upside for now because it seems to be bullish and dollar Swiss uh very slow pair. Um again two safe haven pairs trading against each other. It's very clear USD Swiss used the yen. They move less fast in these kind of market conditions which are mainly fueled by let's say the riskoff sentiment and therefore you're seeing the dollar and against let's say a Swiss

13:48 or yen not move as fast as the Australian dollar against dollar or the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. So yeah, overall here the supply, the imbalance still pushing the market down lower. I'm only interested in shorts to be honest for now on USD Swiss. Not going to try and call the bottom here based on free bullish candles. So I would just be looking for some more shorts. But yeah, very consolidative pair at the moment. Um yeah, I would say just wait for the overall demand zone here to fill and then once this low breaks, get in on the momentum. And then gold, of course, uh gold has been selling off a bit. I'm still looking for some further upside here from gold. Um, overall, this is not the right chart. Um, overall for me, this is the bullish daily fractal structure. It's at the 0.5 fib. So, I'm just looking for this now to start

14:33 slowing down and provide me with a clear reversal pattern to start looking for longs again. So, uh, let's see if that starts slowing down anytime soon. could be obviously be here on the 1 hour time frame for example where we start breaking the fractal structure again and we could look for some longs to take out the descending highs. Uh personally not very interested in shorts. So that's it for today guys. Thank you so much for tuning in. Wish you all a fantastic trading day back in Amsterdam. So there's going to be some YouTube streams again this week and see you inside Discord link in the description and also access to the fractal indicator link in the description as well. Thanks for watching. Thanks for the support. Leave a like, subscribe, and see you