0:00 Inflation came out higher than expected in Australia, causing me to be bullish on the Australian dollar. Higher inflation means higher interest rates means a more attractive currency means more capital inflow into the Australian dollar. Furthermore, interest rates in New Zealand remain the same at 3.25% and at the same time we're seeing a rotation into risk on assets which traditionally benefits currencies like the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. And therefore, I am looking for longs on these pairs. Good morning guys. My name is Fabio and welcome back to another daily market update where I discuss the major dollar pairs and of course gold. Now we're going to start off here with Euro USD because EuroUSD push down lower in towards its area of daily demand. Now what we can overall see is that obviously Euro USD is still in an overall uptrend with a push up
0:46 retracement push up retracement push up an overall retracement down and then another push up. Now overall what I've seen here from EuroUSD is that if we turn on the fractal break indicator is that we can see that the current daily fractal structure is bullish. So we came into this area of demand over here which was a sub for a strong by up candle and that ultimately has now pushed the market up higher again with a V-shaped reversal. Now the confirmation for bullishness was required or that was required to look for further longs on euro USD was a break of the daily fractal high which happened over here. Now, this daily fractal high can now push the market up higher because we broke it because we're now inside a daily area of demand which broke that specific fractal high. So, what I'm now looking for is to see are we going to get bullish confirmation within this
1:33 area of daily demand and is that then ready going to or is that then going to push the market up higher or are we not going to see any bullish confirmation at all and are we going to break the current fractal low so that we can look for shorts again to target this overall ascending lows that we still have over here because let's be honest this is not the strongest area of demand as we still have equal lows here and we also still have equal lows here which I preferably would want to see get taken out on EuroUSD. So, let's see what happens within this area of demand. Obviously, we can take a short-term long on this demand zone as we still have a liquidity high resting over here. This is kind of like the the initial liquidity high, which is the king over all of these descending highs that we had over here. We nearly took it out, failed to do so, but I am looking for one more potential long on euro USD to take out that high before then a real
2:19 drop. However, I'm also happy with already getting into shorts without ever taking out this high over here because obviously we also already took out kind of like these equal highs over here. And for me, the confirmation that we've then actually grabbed liquidity and that the market is ready to push down lower would be a break of the current fractal low. So I would need to see a break here. Then I would get in on the over retracement with a further short position on EuroUSD. So waiting for that bearish confirmation to come through. Overall remember what I mentioned in yesterday's video. Uh if you do not guys, I record these videos every single day so you can always watch it back. What I mentioned in yesterday's video was that there was no clean area of demand here in the overall push up. So then what you want to see is demand created. So now what I'm waiting for after an overall bullish trend that we have seen over here. So let's say this is your 4hour break of structure. This
3:04 again is a 4-hour break of structure. This is the swing low. This is the swing high. Now you're looking for potential long position. But as we can see and especially if you would for example look at the 1 hour time frame, you can see the push down, pull back, push down, pull back, push down, pull back, push down, pull back. So the overall trend is in towards downside. So you don't just randomly want to start buying within this demand zone because the overall trend could just keep on consuming down lower. So a long position like this I would never take because at this point in time this is your area of supply that is in control and especially if you look at for example the 15-minut you can then very clearly see uh here we have for example a liquidity high here we have a fresh area of supply. So maybe the market will just push in and then continue pushing down lower again. That for now is kind of like the overall outlook let's say for Euro USD for the immediate and foreseeable future. But if the 4-hour time frame were to break the
3:50 current fractal high, which you can see is identified by the current FH, then we could potentially look for those 4hour longs again back up in towards the upside. But if we respect this, then I'll just continue looking for that further downside here on EuroUSD. And I'll then just simply wait for the daily time frame to break the current fractal low, which again is the current FL. And then once the current FL is broken, then I'll be happy to go back onto the 4hour time frame. And on the 4hour time frame, I would then get into a short position like for example this one over here. But not yet going to be in this. I'm going to be waiting for that daily fractal low to break as that is the confirmation that I require to get into higher probability shorts. Okay, so that's what I'm waiting for on EuroUSD. Now looking at the dollar index, the dollar index itself pushed up higher as expected into
4:36 where into daily supply. So for now, obviously this buy for the sell here is in control with the current fractal high also being in control as well. So market structure for the immediate foreseeable future is still bearish. Obviously we can see momentum is in towards the downside. So we have the overall momentum in towards the lows. Then if we follow the overall fractal structure, what can we see? We can see that we've retraced in towards this daily supply zone. And it now makes sense to continue pushing down lower. If the current fractal high were to break, then I would be happy to get into some more longs again because then this was just a liquidity swipe of these equal lows over here. and then I'll just look for the long again because then I expect that there is still potential for this overall let's say pullback to evolve into something bigger where we can maybe take out this high once again. So yeah, that's what I have for the dollar index.
5:23 So keeping an eye on what happens within this area of supply 4hour time frame on the immediate kind of like foreseeable future here is still fractal bullish. So um it could at any point in time just react to these imbalance candles that we have over here and then just continue pushing up higher. So therefore, I'm not too kind of keen on getting in on those dollar shorts, but mechanically speaking, you could of course just follow the daily fractal structure uh down lower if you are bearish on the dollar. Now going into ADUSD, we can see that AU pushed down a little bit lower. Uh first of all, we have obviously this daily area of demand that we're inside of. Um so what I mentioned at the beginning of this video, inflation came out higher than expected. So the CPI year-on-year numbers came out higher than expected, which is bullish for the Australian
6:08 dollar. At this specific point in time, the Australian dollar or the US dollar, excuse me, is just a little bit bullish as we could have seen yesterday. That's why ADU hasn't pushed as hard. Looking at, for example, a pair like a Swiss, we're also seeing a push in towards the downside this morning. AUD JPY as well. So I'm going to keep an eye to see if these pairs are ready to reverse. last night. You can see that we saw quite some manipulation with a strong push up, then a push down again. I'll be keeping an eye on the liquidity lows. So, for example, low like this to see maybe we sweep that and then maybe look for some longs once again. But overall, those positive inflation numbers are good for the Australian dollar. Uh but yeah, now keep an eye here on the Australian dollar against the US dollar because it could start buying up again. So, we're inside that daily area of demand. Then
6:54 if we look at the 4hour time frame, what we can see is that yesterday I refined that daily demand zone in towards this 4hour imbalance candle over here. Um, and now what you are pretty much just going to be looking for is bullish confirmation. Yesterday we looked at the 1 hour time frame and I mentioned that I wanted to see like because we were looking at this particular price action on the live session. I mentioned I wanted to see like a strong second 1 hour clal close. We didn't get it was more just like a liquidity sweep again fueling a move down. So now what I'm really waiting for is okay this descending price action that we're seeing here now are we going to see a strong breakout and can we then look for those potential longs preferably we would also want to keep an eye on the 4 hour for example break this 4hour buy before the sell down break that and then look for some longs retracement if the dollar index respects guys respects that
7:40 overall area of supply that it is currently inside of now going into GPUSD we can see that GU uh here on the daily came pretty much back into where into this let's say fractal discount zone. Um so if we look at the fractal structure this is kind of like what you're looking at and then you can see that we came back down into discount levels currently rejecting the 0.5 fib. Um to be honest here on GPUd I am still interested in some for the downside. What I'll be keeping an eye on is how we react to this current fractal structure that we have this buy before the sell this imbalance whatever you want to call it. Um, we've been following this in towards the downside for now. So, previously we reacted to this. Now, I'm going to see if we're going to be reacting to this over here. So, let's
8:26 see if this 4hour fractal structure can again push the market down lower or not. Um, and I'll then be keep an eye on how we react. But, let's say we break the current fractal high. Uh, this could then again be an indication that we're ready to look for some longs again as we still have these descending highs open here at the top. Okay. So, it's all going to be dependent kind of like on this London session. Are we going to break the current fractal high or are we going to push in and then for example see bearish confirmation again on let's say the 15minut or on the 1 hour time frame. Um and that bearish confirmation could for example be let's say this area of supply that you have over here right so this by before the sell candle we push in towards there you use this as a liquidity high um we push in towards there and then let's say the fractal low is over here then wait for the fractal
9:11 low to break retracement and then you could get into some more short positions again that's kind of like the position that I would be waiting for if I were you here on GPUSD because the daily time frame still has some potential to push down lower as we are inside an area of daily supply here. Um, and uh, if we look here at the daily time frame, preferably you would at least want to push down in towards the imbalance candle itself. Um, so let's keep an eye on what happens here with GPUSD today. There are some potential shorts on the table. Um, but we need to see that bearish confirmation and yeah, the bullish momentum slowed down going into NDUSD. So NDUSD itself here is pushing up higher again. Uh, pretty much as expected. Obviously those interest rates came out pretty good. Not lower than expected, also not higher than expected,
9:56 but it just came in as expected. I'm going to be reading the speech of what they said this morning, and I'll do an update inside Discord. But overall, we can see that we're inside an area of daily demand. So, a daily sell for by up. Fractal structure is bullish with this being the current fractal low. This being the current fractal high. So, we retraced in towards daily demand. So, then you can obviously look for longs. 4hour fractal structure is bullish as well. 1 hour fractal structure is bullish as well. Uh some nice manipulation here last night at 3:00 a.m. when the interest rate decisions came out. Uh we took out this low over here. I think I mentioned this in yesterday's video. If not, it is kind of like important to mention. We had these equal lows. We take out the equal lows. We were consolidating. We swipe the low of that range. Boom. Vip reversal up. This is then your demand and that's now pushing the market up higher. So let's
10:43 see if the current fractal high breaks again. Uh that would be a good sign that we can potentially take out all of these descending highs over here. So yeah, some nice price action there on NCUSD. Do keep in mind obviously this pair is very very consolidative. So it's not a pair that I'm really happy uh trading at the moment. Then if we go into USD Swiss, US and gold, we can see that USD Swiss is currently retracing. I did mention yesterday some nice price action overall on this pair. Um looking for it to continue to push up higher to be very honest. Um, but I'll be monitoring this because again yesterday I did mention that preferably on the daily time frame. What I would wanted to see is that black line to get broken because now you're kind of still in this daily supply zone. Like it's not a strong supply zone because it didn't really achieve
11:28 anything but there is some supply inside of it. Um, but overall I am interested still in those USD Swiss buys. So I'll be looking for that further upside here on USD Swiss. Yes, somewhere today. Then maybe um look at this lower area of demand on the 4hour and on the 1 hour. Uh and then maybe look for these equal lows to get taken out and then look for the bullish confirmation and then get into some new longs once again. So that's what I have for USD Swiss USD JPY. I'll be monitoring as well for some further upside. Um yeah, yesterday I did mention here on the 4hour time frame as well that you don't need kind of like that full retracement in towards the downside but overall we are seeing some let's say choppy price action over here. Nothing really beautiful. So personally
12:13 staying out of this itself and waiting for the 4hour time frame to give me something more beautiful. Uh we can see that we took out these two descending highs over here. So maybe some manipulation before any further upside, but I would favor still some further upside on USD JPY. And then last of all, we have gold. And I have some good updates for UJ by the way, which I'll be sharing inside Discord. Um you or gold itself pushed down lower yesterday again grabbing some liquidity. Overall, nothing really too fancy. I was looking for a little bit more downside to be honest on gold. I wanted to see us take out this low over here before really looking for those longs again. So I'm just going to let it do its thing at these levels. For me, this is just very consolidative price action. We can see here previously consolidative. Now again, consolidative.
13:00 So maybe if we now start breaking out, it is actually ready to push up higher. Obviously, gold is still bullish on the higher time frame being the daily and the 4hour time frame. Yes, there was kind of like a manipulation of the fractal low which happened over here. So it's now fractal bearish, but it's kind of more just consolidating and manipulating then really kind of like trending. So then I don't really look at the fractal structure too much. Um, I'm still favoring further upside, but preferably I would have wanted to see a liquidity sweep before further upside. But obviously, if it already starts pumping, it's always good just to already be in those longs because otherwise you're going to miss out on a pretty big move because I do see us still taking out these deselling highs here. So yeah, I'll be monitoring those longs. And that's pretty much it for today. So don't forget to watch back yesterday's live session, by the way, here on YouTube. Extremely valuable one of how to combine fundamentals together with technicals. Tomorrow again, we're
13:46 going to be doing another live session. If you're not inside Discord, make sure to do so. the link in description of this video. Thanks for watching. Make sure to leave a like and subscribe to the channel. And I'll see you in tomorrow's daily market.
