0:05 Good morning. Welcome to morning outlook. This is Kim speaking on Monday the 9th of June. So, uh, Friday's uh, non-farmms came out pretty well, showing that the jobs markets remaining quite robust, wages still increasing. Let's have a look before I look at the um, markets themselves. Quick look at today. Well, it's a bank holiday for quite a bit of Europe. Um, so it'll be interesting to see what sort of volume we get out this morning. It may be just a case of uh it it builds up a little bit better in the afternoons, but we've seen that quite a lot. The the better moves sometimes in the afternoons quite frequently for quite some time now. Um, just looking ahead this week actually whilst I'm here. Um, we got some UK jobs data
0:54 tomorrow. We got inflation on Wednesday, US inflation on Wednesday there. Um, and Thursday, of course, it's not a busy busy day after non-farm payrolls. And often a Monday after non-farm payrolls isn't the best of volatile days anyway, but we'll see what what what comes out today. Right, let's look at the technicals. And I've had a few technical problems this morning. So, uh, bear bear with me cuz it's, uh, for some of these markets, it's the first look. So, um, Euro dollar euro seems to be picking back up again after Friday's, uh, price action where we saw it, the, uh, euro coming off here. It found some support back into its 4hourly 50 there. Now,
1:39 it's back above its daily pivot. Um, but interesting to see what it does this morning. It's not that far away from its R1. Um, Friday looked looked like it was um, setting for a bit more of a breakdown. Um, with this uh, these lower highs coming through here. I wasn't too sure if we were going to see something more significant coming through, but uh, it's it's not looking like the best of price action here. Now all those that sort of lower high is a bit lost on this uh move that we can see when you look at it on the upper time frames. So um maybe having less effect. Um key test today really we're sitting on this quarterly
2:24 pivot which is uh uh been seen price find resistance etc for some time. The key thing here is can we get up into the R1 and above? Um or are we going to see another another run to the downside? Um we have to wait see on this I'm afraid. Um I haven't got a trade ready to play off there. So I've got no setup on it. The pound um once again this morning was seeing it running up. Sorry, it's it's on a go slow my system. There we go. Um, it's gone now. Um, starting to move to the upside here again. It's looking a bit
3:11 stronger um already into its uh daily R1 pivots are a bit pinched um looking at things compared to I say a bit pinched. Not that pinched Friday. It's okay. Well, there certainly more pinched on Friday, that's for sure. um higher lows coming through into its R1. We got we got scope. We'll see how the we get a continuation this morning. Quite often I say it so many times that you see these sort of moves that are appearing through uh the Asian session and look it's starting to look quite bullish and then you get sort of reversals. If we was to see a bit of a reversal, I'd rather be looking at the euro on the short side than the pound at the moment. pound overall on the daily picture just looks
3:57 that bit stronger. US also Aussie dollar. All right, we'll leave that then. The Aussie dollar, I'm just not wanting to trade it. It's just uh it might start be picking up and looking a bit brighter, but not it's not for me. US dollar yen. This is a bit more interesting and there could be an idea coming through on this. um it's already started reacting uh to its monthly pivot there and it's really a case if we're seeing this sort of dollar weakness continue through. I need to be below on the four I say on the fall but for it's the weekly pivot. I want to be below the weekly pivot. I want it to break below the uh pivot level. Uh it could just find some support around where it is at the moment
4:44 and of course bounce. So, I want it to break that before I can uh look for the short side. But I'm considering shorts on the dollar yen, but uh judging particularly during the uh from the dailies here just looks like it's it's got the scope to roll back. Of course, this red bar here is today. So, we can't take too much into play on that because it could just uh turn around post 8:00. Aussie dollar. Sorry, I've already looked at that. I I'm just don't want to trade it. It's just so ugly. Um Canadian dollar, it seems to be moving. We had good news on the Canadian dollar uh with the non-farmms from Canada. Um the data was pretty robust there as well. Um
5:31 choppy old day on Friday on that basis, but maybe again I'm sort of looking off the lower time frames here. Get past that day hourly 50. um we could be on for something more of a move back to the downside. Um it's just look looking like it's got the scope to do so is whether we we see as I say past 8:00 8:30 uh what the markets are really doing that stage. New Zealand dollar very similar to the Aussie but slightly better trend. Uh previously it's much as much of a sameness here. It's the same looking picture if you looking at the pound or the euro. Got the same retracements, same
6:18 uh bounces really. Um just looking to see what you've really bounced off of. No, no real clear support there. But again, heading heading upwards for for sure. Now, sometimes you I get asked the question, why didn't you swing all this? Whatever else, because the market's in such a mess, basically. Um, overall, it's all right looking at like a swing after the event, but we're trading through the event is the problem. There's so much going on on the risk side of things with uh tariffs etc. But uh it's not that interesting. I'm looking at Swiss Frank. Um I don't know
7:05 what really why I'm putting the trend lines on this. Um it has put a lower high in on this. It's um the original trend is still to the downside. that it made this very sharp movement here. Um the risk with the uh the Swisses I keep saying is the inter potential intervention from the Swiss National Bank. So um whilst it's its absolute lows here, right, let's move on to the Euroyen when it finally uh there we go. So, Euro yen, I was looking last week where we'd break out and start uh really really getting going on this and well, it's pulled back a bit at the moment, hasn't it? It's having a reaction to the double tops there. So, I'll come back to
7:51 dailies for a moment, you just see the previous highs. In fact, if I squeeze that along a little bit, drop it down. You can see there's there's quite a few highs around this area previously. We might be might be getting there. But um uh with the yen strengthening this morning lower high coming through it it could be coming back to more normal normal area if there is such a thing. Um well this range that we were basically sitting in for a long time. Euro pound not really going too much here. still my preference is the downside because I'm going to eur Europe so I'd
8:36 like a strong pound but um really not uh well I've tried trading this before and it's just so so slow. Um I don't have a great deal at the moment. As I said technical issues this morning has meant I haven't had time to run through some of these. Um likes the Euro Aussie are sliding their way back again. Lower high is coming through. We broke out originally of this ascending channel, but it then went back within. Um it's coming off again, but again it's just anything with to do with the Aussie at the moment. It seems to be a bit iffy. Okay, so I'm afraid I don't have
9:24 anything significant there at this stage. Just the way the market is, it might be quiet this morning in terms of trading conditions anyway because of the bank holidays. Quick look at gold. So, gold here um finding a bit of a bit of support this morning back into one of its quarterly pivots here heading up for its weekly pivot. It doesn't look great though. I said this on Friday actually. It looks on the weaker side. We had this sort of lovely bare flag sitting there on Friday and well we've got another lovely bare flag. I'd like to see it run into the pivot and react. Um it already had a bit
10:09 of a reaction. Um when it 7:00 it had started coming off there. Uh but uh we'll see. It's it is looking a lot better than it did. But if it just continues up through the pivot, I'm not interested. There might be there might be an opportunity on that. Oil oil's been uh making a bit of a recovery of late. Um it's very very ugly. This is the uh last week. I mean, I just don't like it whilst it's there. So, I will leave it whilst it's there. S&Ps Well, well, my my main point is that there's enough risk when you're trading
10:55 regardless. Uh when you're trading in the markets and there's so many extra aspects of risk, sometimes you just got to sit back and wait and be patient until things settle into if they can settle down. Um S&Ps, well, Friday, they like the numbers. Um we we're sitting there. We're not far from uh sorry, bring that daily back in. Not that far away from the all-time highs now. It's getting back towards that sort of drift drifting up there. Um and looking okay for rally maybe bit ugly on Friday. We've got this actually you got a bit of a penant going on there with lower highs, higher lows. So a bit of a penant there. A bit
11:42 unreliable. Um just we just got to watch this price action bit. As I say it looks on at the moment it looks more on the bullish side of things. Now the foots has just taken off this morning just this moment. So it's uh started off again not far away from alltime highs here and it's certainly uh on the short term very short term. I was looking at a 15-minute chart across to my left and well look it's uh 3 minutes in and it's it's flying at the moment. Um, of course that can come to a halt very quickly. So, bit of patience, but it is looking like well certainly the R1's going to be uh an easy target there
12:27 potentially. The DAX slow ugly on the four alleys. It's just sort of flatlining almost here. And the houries here Friday, it's not really moved. It needs to get a bit of a wiggle on to the I don't I don't like ever when it it consolidates away from the highs here. So, it's it's it's weaker. It's a weaker signal, but if it can consolidate long enough, maybe it will go back up again. But at the moment, looking a bit iffy. So, it just popped up there, put the new high in last Thursday, and ever since has not really gone well pulled off quite aggressively. uh and is is
13:12 slow, but as I say, I haven't wr written it off yet with all the other equity markets looking so bullish. Um it looks like this is where the money's going for now. Right, I shall leave you there. Wish you a great day and I'll catch you um next week. Uh next week tomorrow. I was thinking it's Friday for a moment. It felt like it already. Take care.
