Which pairs to trade today? 7th May 2025 - #LiveForexAnalysis

0:06 Good morning. Welcome to Morning Outlook. This is Kim speaking on Wednesday the 7th of May. So, first things first, let's uh go look at the news events today, what's coming out, and you'll see that uh we've got the FMC meeting later this evening. So, at 7:00 p.m. 7:30, we got the press conference. Um I would expect some volatility around there. there's no expectation of interest rate cuts. It's more what's said I think in the statement potent with the risk of uh inflation coming in based on tariffs etc. And um their role is to keep in inflation down. The jobs market's proving quite solid for them. So why would they cut

0:51 the rates? And they might even look to postpone rate cuts for a while longer even though people think they might be cut, you know, multiple this year. Anyway, uh that's what Trump would like. We got out this morning construction PMI for the UK. It doesn't normally affect the market too much. Um so that's it really today and we're going to look forward to the Bank of England monetary policy tomorrow at midday. So, uh, might see the pound start slowing up or some weird price action. Whichever. Um, let's just check for speakers that are not listed. There's nothing really. Uh, oh, we got Bessant Criy. Um, US Treasury Secretary Bessant um at 3:00 this afternoon. Um, so there we

1:39 go. No doubt talking about tariffs, right? That might in itself cause some volatility of course. We'll see. Right, let's look at the technicals though. What we what we can work off of. Um, Euro dollar continues to ride in this uh uh pretty ugly looking uh price action effectively. I mean, it's done it most of last week. It drifted off for a bit last week, but overall it's not the easiest market to be trading and the risk is greater. So, best avoided. There we go. You're going to have a lot of that. Sorry. Um the pound um very similar case really. It was it did pick up a bit yesterday and look a

2:26 little bit more solid at one stage, but it's given some of that back. Although looks like it's trying to pick up again now off of its daily pivot here. So, um that could be okay for the R1 potentially. It's going to be running into some resistance back back on over there. Let me just pull that all in. You can't see it all. It's going to have to squeeze this down. There we go. So, some some resistance levels running in. That should I wouldn't be targeting the S1 itself. I'd leave it short of the S1, but um there's potential this morning for that to push up there. Looks a bit more positive some than some of the markets. The yen is looking quite uh solid against the US dollar here on the shorter time frames at least. Um actually it is on in the bigger time

3:13 frames. This is the daily picture here. Um popped in a pivot swing yesterday. Continued through that selloff area. Went a bit quick for me. I was looking at it yesterday morning looking at the break of the 50. It went very quickly. Um and I missed the entry on this particular one, but I got a different yen trade. Um instead we traded the Euro Yen. Um this is this is coming off again at the moment. be careful post 8:00. It can all stall and go the other way. I will say this, be careful um these mornings, but it does if it starts setting up, it does look good for a roll back down to or continuation down to the S1 at the moment. I was looking at this as a possible swing, more of a swing trade. Um and there's scope for it. Now

4:00 whether you take it on the break of the lows um or get it in a more aggressive area on a shorter time frames I would still just wait until 8:00 8:30 maybe a bit later 9:00. Um Aussie US dollar you can see it's just largely run into a trend. It's starting to pick up a little bit here and it might dri continue its drift to the upside. We've got this um uh support into its daily pivot at the moment. There's potential for it to run back up towards the R1. So there there's there's a few things here that have got um got scope. Four out three out of four so far. US dollar

4:46 CAD. Um I don't like the ugly drift on this on the dailies. There we go. It it it is working its way downwards at the moment. a descending channel, but the risk of that, of course, is it uh eventually it might break out the top. Um, but it's it's ugly as I was just saying a moment ago. It's neither halfway up nor down really. But um or both. But saying that, a breakdown today down towards that S1 is possible within the range uh of the bigger range. Okay. So even that's looking like it's got something. Just got to bear in mind later we do have the FMC meeting. I'll just remind you that because things might look pretty this morning, they

5:34 might go quite flat as we move towards the time and if you're not already out, it may pay to New Zealand dollar. Um I'm going to bring this into a 4hourly picture. You can see the descending channel. Well, that descending channel is near enough done now. Um, it was a lovely classic descending channel actually because it uh it broke come back, tested this the trend line here and and has turned off the trend line and uh continued to push so far. Uh but uh running up CR1 will probably finish that move completely off. Um yeah that that will have covered us off

6:21 there. So the scope for that push up there looks a bit like it's slowing down getting a bit sluggish here at the moment. Often it's more towards early afternoon when it starts picking back up again. You're still a Swissy the Swissy after yesterday's mention. I mean, the comments by the uh Swiss National Bank chairman didn't really uh do the Swiss in what I thought it might have done. Um, in fact, it's just still in this very consolidated horrible phase. Now, I know we could get some decent burst out of this at some stage, but don't need to be first into the move and it's really tight and quite ugly there. Um, Euro Yen could be I was still looking at this sort of this decent move

7:07 we've seen down. Let's just come from the bigger picture here. But it is quite the the bigger picture is quite ugly. We got a decent trade off of it yesterday. Um only a small intraday trade, but it it went quite nicely. Um at the moment, we're getting a bearish engulfing bar in there. I'd need to see something more. uh would need to see it below its 34 and below this trend line ideally for a continuation short on this for another short but it could be setting right um Euro pound yesterday I had had a look at but it came off quite strongly there yesterday um only to bounce big time and it's given us a higher low so it's gone a bit

7:54 ugly compared to where it was it was looking like we were going I can see just a continuation. As I said, it did it came off there yesterday, but we will see. It's put a d a little bit of a divergence in on the short time frames, no doubt, here, but still looking ugly. Um, any decent move up this morning. Well, the euro is moving up this morning. It's up it's up against all of its cross pairs here at the moment. Um, slightly, not a lot. This could all turn around. I was looking yesterday for a roll a move into the uh weekly pivot. It's hit the S1 now though. I'm not I was looking to short it off of that yesterday. I was hoping it was just going to keep coming up

8:40 here. Never made it. Um so that's not on at the moment. I was also looking at the pound Aussie for the same thing that did come pretty much there. Uh but again, I missed this personally. it. It was late late when it started kicking off there. Waiting there. We were just looking at there was options to get short on it, but um it's just literally double bottomed in this case at the moment. We'll see if we get another roll back. Right. Okay. Currency pairs. I'll look at the rest of the crosses in the trading room in a short while. Let's just look at um gold and oil. Oil's up one and a half% today. I just add so spot gold um

9:30 yesterday solid day today. It's just coming off a little bit. Maybe it's uh bit more confidence in the markets at the moment but uh looking at the hourly I don't know could could still see potential for that to push up. So maybe a bit of confidence running through at the moment but right okay oil gold oil oil's up one half dollars just reading about this a little bit more um part part of the reasoning behind this uh price it or the prices bouncing here is uh that um Saudi did put their oil prices up to Asia. Now whether this is

10:18 going to hold up, we'll see. They've been in a favorable place um Saudi because their oil is cheap uh to produce. But when you look at it as the shell produces etc uh the um north of North American suppliers Canada whatever France oil sands and things like this it's expensive to produce. Um so they they they've seen it coming off quite nicely which has probably slowed down some of the production and given the opportunities although there is an over production figures. How far this would go we'll have to wait and see but um I would be looking closely around a touch underneath the uh well hit a hit of the monthly pivot if it gets there.

11:04 For now it's using it as a bit of a target to the upside. um short-term time frames here. It's looking quite healthy for a a continuation maybe, but um again, I don't trade this in the morning, so we'll see what happens this afternoon. Right, S&Ps S&Ps continued to ride downwards yesterday for a bit there, but it picking upish, he says, at the moment. It's quite ugly, isn't it? It's the close towards the close there yesterday after the close uh picked up but not particularly looking wonderful. The uh just looking at the

11:50 NASDAQ pretty much the same. So these markets break above the 200. We may be just reacting to that 200 from when was that? Uh Friday, wasn't it? Um so Monday, Tuesday off so far Wednesday break of that would be uh more positive on the equity markets. Um the foots is up slightly at the moment but only the bell's just rung and we're off and it's off and it's down. Okay, not looking particularly bright right this moment. Now, of course, again, it changes quite shortly after the open. We often get reversals

12:36 around the opens of markets. We'll see what how it develops. It's not looking particularly pretty at the moment, that's for sure. And finally, the DAX. DAX ran in pretty close to the all-time high. It's not far off. It couldn't do a lot yesterday. there was selling coming back through on it probably didn't help at one stage the fact that the German chancellor wasn't accepted initially although it's been sorted now um they don't need many more things to go wrong in Germany at this stage right it's a mess the lower time frames here at this stage but it has

13:23 potential it's so close to those highs you might we might just see it running out there. I'm sure as it gets through there, even if it pops through at some stage, short positionings will start building up from the retail traders once again and maybe some of the bigger traders. Right, I shall leave you there. Wish you a good day's trading. As I said, just summaries summarizing likes of the pound and we get back onto this. Bring into dailies there. We'll see what Oh, it's turning back. You can see how quick it's turned back here. Uh was looking quite shiny, mate. But that might again turn back again. Um the uh again the yen was looking good on the downside and the Aussie dollar was

14:10 looking good on potentially on the upside and all three of them have turned within four minutes of the new hour. That's why we wait. Now, of those this uh Aussie is going to be giving us a lower high in a moment if it breaks through the the 34 here. It's not looking particularly wonderful. So, it could be all changed in a very short change time, right? I'll see. But that's that was the summary of where we've got to. Have a good day. Catch you later.