India Ready for Next War? Drones, China, Pakistan & Op Sindoor | Lt Gen Dhillon & Air Marshal Kapoor

0:00 fly Dubai aircraft in which you said no one's talking about the radicalization of professionals especially the educated lot the latest being the Omani pilot >> earlier you could find that people who were less educated who were not so in the mainstream were easy to be molded away with a particular thought process and mindset >> the lines between the conventional war subconventional war unconventional war low inensity conflict terrorism crime are actually getting blood. >> War has fundamentally changed or our understanding has fundamentally changed. >> Every weapon system which is developed within a time frame, a counter to that is developed. >> Every situation in any warfare, the person who adapts faster is going to

0:47 win. All the plans which a soldier or a commander makes goes haywire on the first day. Should we also be making more drones, thousands and thousands of more drones per day? >> Yes, Ukraine is actually a test bed for drone warfare. 8 lakh drones are being made by Ukrainians per month. 10 lakh drones are made by Russians per month. Chinese are making over 1 cr. >> The sometimes criticism comes manpower equipment. We can't afford to say okay puri line of control will be managed by drones. Pakist will come and sit there. You know all these pseudo intellectuals. They will look at war in Israel, war in Iran, you know, war in Ukraine and try

1:33 and say the terrain and the enemy dictates what should be your strategy. >> This episode is powered by Delta Exchange, India's leading crypto exchange. Namaste jind you're watching or listening to another edition of the NI podcast with Smith Prakash. Today we talk about the changing nature of warfare and how can India be prepared for the new wars where wars are not fought on battlefields. They are fought on skies and at sea through drones and missiles, satellites and cyber attacks. Disinformation and economic pressure. From Ukraine to West Asia, cheap drones can threaten weapon systems worth millions. Non-state actors can challenge

2:19 conventional militaries. Civilian infrastructure has become a target and conflict thousands of kilometers away can disrupt oil supplies, shipping routes, markets and national security here in India. What should India be learning from all this? My two guests today have been talking and thinking of warfare for decades from different perspectives. Leften general KJS Tiny Dylan is a former director of Defense Intelligence Agency and deputy chief of integrated defense staff. He has appeared on the ANI podcasts episode 11, episode 81 and episode 293. General Dylan has commanded the strategically important 15th Corps in Kashmir and has extensive experience in

3:05 counterterrorism. Air Marshal Sanjie Kapoor has appeared on the ANI podcast episode 297 and episode 405 where he has spoken about his career and the wars. Air Marshall Kapoor has served as commandant of the National Defense Academy and has extensive experience in air operations, training and strategic affairs. Together they have now written, "Is India ready for the next crisis? The USAI Israel Iran conflict nobody's war everybody's war." But before I begin this conversation, a few notes. I am not a defense reporter and this is not a defense podcast. I'm asking questions which many of you might already know the answers to. At times questions that might seem uninformed to many of you,

3:53 but understand that this is a conversation. I ask questions which are often times not the ones domain specialists would ask. And sometimes I know the answers yet I may ask the questions because I know some of my viewers may not have that information. That doesn't mean that I'm ignorant or I haven't done any research. It just is what journalism is all about. Also, most of the episodes run over an hour and I steer the conversation. Those are not interruptions. That is called moderating the discussion. So, we stay on topic. And as I have many topics that I want my guests to speak on during the course of the conversation and my views on these topics are also part of the podcast. So you just have to listen to them. So now

4:39 let's begin the conversation. Thank you Marshall Kapoor. Thank you General Dylan. Uh both of you are uh have appeared on the podcast before so I'm very grateful that you're here. Um and um I want to begin with you Amaral Kapoor with a tweet that you had done a post uh and I'll read that out to you. Uh this is regarding the uh fly Dubai aircraft in which you said um no one's talking about the radicalization of professionals especially the educated lot the latest being the Omani pilot. The pilots, doctors, engineers and scientists are now convinced about the cause. The line arguably is if it ever existed the what I want to ask you is that this line between radicalism,

5:25 terrorism and war. These are three lines which have got blurred with this incident. Um because you know as per uh the charter uh hijacking is a crime against humanity. It's not an act of terror, but this seems to be an act of terror. At least that's what Israel is saying that this was an act of terror. At the same time, there is a war going on in West Asia. Does it become an act of crime? Is it an act of terror? Is it an act of war? Or are we living in times I'll come to you also general ter on this. Are we living in times where it's all these lines have got blurred? Actually you're absolutely correct in

6:11 identifying that this uh incident specifically which led me to write this tweet is that you will find more and more people are moving towards an ideology. Earlier you could find that people who were less educated who were not so in the mainstream were easy to be molded away with a particular thought process and mindset but now uh it's uh the 9/11 accident uh of uh in US put in a lot of things in place and I'm sure this incident which happened in fly Dubai on 30th of September will bring in large number of changes again especially for the crew. Now I can visualize what

6:58 Aayika will sit in will start to check the pilots profiles. Now >> they will start to check the social media handling. They will start to now check their bank accounts and balances. They will start now to see the profiling and then designate as per this would be of course secret but they would now start profiling you and start putting you on those kind of flights which are not of that nature. >> Uh this trend uh aviation uh I was on a show last evening and I was asked why this axe was used uh in and the axe for the benefit of your viewers also is put in the cockpit uh basically for the pilots. It's a fire axe we call it. It is put uh to cut open the bulkhead. It

7:45 can cut the wires in case of any crash landing. It can cut the the door uh handles. It's so sharp. And on the other end, there's a sharp object which when hit on the fire extinguisher, helps the pilot at that stage. Even if he's injured, he can, you know, operate a fire extinguisher. But I said yesterday that the doctor has a surgical knife. He performs surgery with that knife. The same knife can be used to kill somebody. Now that axe is put for some a particular person if it is used to kill another pilot that takes a new shape totally totally new shape and everything which happened in this incident of 30th of September is a miracle. It's a miracle and so many things uh you know going the way for those people who were

8:33 on board. Otherwise, I have again said it is an Indian pilot getting airborne from a UA territory with Israeli passengers on board. And if hypothetically this aircraft had crashed, the the analysis would have come that Indian pilot took down the aeroplane into the Israeli territory. Uh you know getting airborne from UAE and the Israeli prime minister had just visited UAE. M >> he met the Saudi minister in uh Abu Dhabi. So probably some larger forces do not want this association to go on. Maybe one of the followers other like you rightly pointed out this war which General Dylan you know we had long

9:18 meeting before we wrote this book how to name so finally it became nobody war nobody's war to everybody's war. Now if you see every person in this globe is either directly or indirectly connected with this war and everybody's paying the bill now. >> So I'll come to the book. Sorry to interrupt. I'll come to the book but let me first come back to the incident uh on this because uh there's this view you know like you said that the way everybody is looking at this incident is also through that ideological prism where you don't want to believe what the Israelis are putting out then everybody's looking

10:05 how come things haven't fallen down. AI generated videos are also coming out to the sequence that uh uh Captain Smith managed to neutralize the the pilot the Omani pilot who attacked Captain Smith and then he maneuvered the aircraft to some extent but the landing of that aircraft was done by the second crew. That is the sequence which happened but the narrative has already gone plumber absolutely the the twist given immediately after this accident was it was all pre-planned. So like for them

10:50 October 7th, 2023 was pre-planned. This uh accident was pre-planned. So they gave a spin to uh like after Obsendur they gave a spin that uh they one they shot down seven of our aircrafts. S400 was shot so many airfields were taken out. Uh so this narrative is immediately put across and then it is reinforced. Can can a person who is not trained >> can actually pull back? >> No, he he when Benjamin Natanu asked him the same question. I your viewers can watch the interaction. >> That is a prime minister listening to uh >> so he said he said that he has been watching the crash videos of Discovery Channel for last 25 years. He's

11:37 interested and in lot of those air accidents which have been covered on Discovery Channel there have been few in which the passengers have gone and they said that they have seen people pulling out the aircraft. So he said that immediately when the Omani pilot was taken out of the cockpit the cockpit door was open he sat on the seat and brought the aircraft to somewhat straightened level attitude. And then there were two pilots who were traveling uh on board as passengers. So that's why I said in the beginning everything in this incident is luck. The luck is because the the in Boeing 737 the door opening uh from the manually is with the co-pilot side. >> The pilot sits on the left side. So the

12:24 Omani pilot would have been sitting on the right side. So if he has attacked the lever is on his side. So, so Captain Smith would have juggled to open that lever for others to come into. So, this part you know how he would have managed with that injury and in this process to take the pilot out and he the plumber uh has brought the aircraft up. Uh it's possible it's possible because he says last 20 to 25 years I have been watching the aircraft accident programs uh on on the television. So he's aware of all these things though he may not have any idea of aviation but fortunately there were other pilots also on board on that aeroplane which took over and you know brought the aircraft down. >> General you've seen uh unusual acts of

13:10 bravery by civilians um where you know in 15th core when you were interacting with Kashmiris we have spoken about this in previous episodes and I've just mentioned the numbers uh of the episodes where viewers can go into those episodes and see it. In fact, you very kindly came when I was just beginning my podcast when I was, you know, hunting for people who would come on my podcast and saying you were very kind and you came on the podcast and explained so much about you know stuff that you have seen unusual acts of bravery by civilians. um this incident which has happened uh there are many of course like I said who have this prism that whatever is put out by Israel we are not going to believe it's also

13:57 during war uh that Israel is involved in uh past couple of years they they do put out propaganda material so believe and these are uh these are legitimate journalists publications who refusing to believe it but you have been you have seen it during the course of your career and even after that these unusual acts of bravery. Do you uh see this with skepticism when when something comes out like this or do you think that what you saw or what you've heard the sequence makes for believable sequence believable actions which happened? >> Uh thank you ma'am and uh first of all uh a good day to all viewers. Yes ma'am. And uh just taking a little bit uh

14:44 speaking a little bit on your first question, the lines between the conventional war, subconventional war, unconventional war, low inensity conflict, terrorism, crime are actually getting blurred. >> They're getting blood to the extent that like in our uh know is written sam dham dand everything is fair in love and war. Similarly, it has been now taken to a new level. Yeah, this is there in for viewers and listeners, it's there right from the beginning of the book and in fact in almost all the chapters you mentioned this. So u those of you who want to know more about that please do read this book. Both the authors have explicitly stated about how these lines have got blurred. Go ahead. These lines have got blood and this act

15:30 by an individual with a particular mindset which is a radicalized mindset having terrorist tendencies and you know not a very stable person like Kapoor says he's a professional but he's radicalized. These are part of the game today. They are done to achieve that thing in the social media and the media and in the larger public base that the normal common person aircraft pilot who is educated who's professional even he believes in our way of thinking >> like 9/11 happened with that thinking and that background and now coming to your question proper are these individual acts of bravery are you know they are exceptions or they are rule ma'am individual acts of bravery happen at point of you know just an instance at

16:19 that instance a human can get into the act of fear and at that very instant the same human can get into the act of bravery because the way he looks at the situation and like in this particular situation hijack situation now this situation that instance that second it was I am going to be no more if I don't act >> he did not have the luxury of getting afraid Because biggest fear of death was already there. >> Yeah. >> So when there is no bigger fear than death, then he had only one choice of being brave. And that's exactly what happened with not only the person who entered the cockpit, not only the pilot, Captain Smith, but each and every passenger on that aircraft

17:05 >> sequence. What happened was that there was an altercation which was happening in that >> at that moment there was a little child who wanted to go to the bathroom. Now any plane which is flying in that area 1 hour before that they don't allow you to go to the bathroom. There's a little child who goes there she hears the noise in the cockpit and she realizes something is wrong. She tells her mother that something has happened. The mother believes the child and tells a door opens. It's a sequence and it's also a population Israelis who have lived in conflict zones who don't mind.

17:51 Yes. We don't want to think of the threat that it could be and and somebody who has come in. It's people who live in conflict zones. So that sequence which you were talking about this unusual act of bravery the instinct is there in the Israelis. So explain to me that am I right in interpretation? >> Absolutely ma'am I have been to Israel two three times. >> G >> in Israel it's very common to see in the evening in a restaurant a girl walking in with the AK-47 on her shoulder and ordering a pizza. >> Now that is the way that society is. They are prepared for war or they prepared for enemy action or a bombardment or a missile hitting you every moment. Practically every Israeli

18:37 citizen is trained trained for military type of things and it is in the mindset that we have enemies all around. Slowly and slowly the people around the countries around are changing. But when it started off in 1948 >> like but when we were studying international relations in school and college in NDA we were told they're hostile nations all around Israel. So they have grown up. They were born in that society. They were born in that feeling of fear of being attacked every moment and they prepared to react that loves for is you don't have to think

19:25 that is intuitive for an Israeli. This is intuitive. Moment they see a danger, they sense a danger, the body reaction, intuitively aggressive and calm. >> So everybody out there, it wasn't just key. It wasn't I mean I understand what you're saying about luck, but it's it's beyond luck. It is a kind of a training that they have uh that believing that child that there's danger >> going immediately towards the cockpit that one man saying I've taken charge and then the other two immediately coming and landing the plane and the rest believing that and not going into a state of panic. >> Absolutely. The the training like

20:11 General Dylan just said >> so you're involved in training with in very >> Yes, I I've been involved in training. I was the commandant of national defense academy and the air force academy. So >> training forms an essential part like he was saying you don't have to think your body functions that way to get you what you have to get. So uh when any panic or any other situation ar the mind automatically directs you and the action starts to flow. In my appreciation, the seven minutes when I was reading about this incident, the captain Smith uh put there's a code called 7700. It's a transponder code which the SC code which the pilot selects. >> The first code 77 is uh is an indicative

20:58 of general emergency. You don't have to announce on RT but uh the the transponder transmits to all the stations. But when you put 7500, it's a hijack. So, Captain Smith first put 770 that is the period when he was being attacked in my appreciation. Uh when he put 7500 he is convinced that the aircraft is being hijacked and being taken for a cause which is >> is this one button that >> I'm not sure in I I have not flown blowings. I'm not sure of how the selection said but in many aircrafts you have to punch. In many many aircraft there are four digits uh you have to just select it is a toggle switch you have to just move and the digits move. So there are four separate windows.

21:44 >> It should be a single button. >> In some each aircraft has different some you have to manually feed like a mobile in some uh it is uh and in some the other codes are blanked which are not in use some digits so that it is easier for you. >> So he again put it back to 770. So in my opinion that was a stage when the co-pilot must have been taken out of the cockpit and the period is just 7 minutes. So from 7700 to 7500 back to 7700 as per what I read is just about 7 minutes. So it means he must have been overpowered in this time. the aircraft must have been brought to the situation and that's how they decided to divert to Saudi Arabia >> because but they also had other aircrafts were engineered to move

22:30 towards >> the the fighters got activated from from Israel. So that got activated when 7500 came up >> because then could also mean that they they would be shot down. >> Absolutely. So they did not want this aeroplane to come into the Israeli territory as a weapon. >> So the fighters got airborne. >> Yeah. So, so, >> so which is to to go back to the danger mode from the hijack mode. >> So, it is he has to just change now one digit uh you know seven that the second digit from five to seven that's all >> it is not he has to change all the four digits he has to just >> is it physically possible for an grievously injured pilot to uh uh move like that and manually open I'm only asking you sir because

23:18 It may experience Israeli pilots who are on board. Maybe they came in and when the situation stabilized probably they put the situation back to 770. Yeah. >> So the inquiry will bring out all >> because then it is not it is not >> a hijack threat anymore. >> It is not a weapon. >> Yes. >> You know it's not a weapon. >> So they probably wanted to communicate that it is no more a threat is just an emergency. And also they must have gone on radio to say that they have [snorts] commanded the >> in this whole incident that we're talking about the basic instincts the human nature you know being prepared. Look at that fouryear-old child. >> Yeah. >> That child is also psychologically tuned >> to sense danger >> because Israel is going through a war where missiles are hitting them every

24:03 day. They're going into the bunkers and all those things. So this child has also been tuned to that type of danger sensing. M >> and that is when the child sensed the danger immediately came back and told the mother. >> Yeah. >> 5 days from now it'll be 3 years. >> So I I remember 71 sirens. I was that same age. >> Yes. >> You know I know uh I know lights off brown paper blackout. I I know that. But it's it's the last generation of of Indians across the country knowing that siren walla now >> after my generation the next generations only those who lived in conflict zones >> yes

24:48 >> will know it ma'am before operation sindur on 6th of May we had a podcast here >> g >> and after I went down that day that uh advisory had come for blackout. >> Yeah. >> Sitting standing in the lawns of her office your reporter asked me sir what do you understand by blackout? M >> so I explained all these things and that real went viral >> that young reporter has not experienced >> has not experienced it there I grew up in a conflict zone along the border in Amrissa district we have seen 65 we have seen 71 as kids and then of course as a military man so I explained exactly what blackout is what are supposed to be done you know and all those things and this is the way now imagine Israeli child.

25:35 >> He or she is every day going through these blackouts. >> But also the the parent believing the child. >> Yes. Parent believing child. That's very important. >> That's also important. >> Yes. >> The education. My next tweet I have written that the education is not in school. >> Parents have to educate children at home. They have to tell children about what is actually safe, what is not safe, and how to react in a crisis. And this education has to begin at home. And >> uh so this I'll just read this out, sir. 6-year-old Israeli girl, Nenina, woke her mother up after she heard the scuffle in the cockpit. Mother after confirmation raised alarm that eventually saved 174 lives. This is how

26:20 children are brought up in Israel alert. As you said, Jenny Dylan, aware and responsible. Education cannot be confined to classrooms in school. Parents role is to teach children basics of awareness, first aid and emergency response is a must. We have to make them eyes and ears for security agencies. Most important lesson is not to freeze in any crisis and seek help. So both of you uh I mean uh you you should be aware I guess because uh you know nowadays uh schools are asking uh police uh personnel, armed forces personnel to come and teach these basic things of fire, how to deal with fire, police, women uh safety, girl child safety,

27:08 earthquakes, how to be safe in this but as you said and sir we discussed this in during Agnipat also. >> Yes. that the agnes who are coming out need to go back and teach this in their villages. So please go ahead. >> My sense is the first teacher is parents. >> Okay. >> With the new kind of work culture where both the parents are working and with this kind of a lifestyle with joint families going away and there's [clears throat] a saying uh that the child is brought up by the village. >> Now no more people are living where you live together. Parents have a huge responsibility in giving the basic education to children at home which is reinforced in the schools by what you

27:53 are saying. It is to be reinforced but the basic education about safety. Safety as a culture in our country is lacking. I beat it road safety beat you know going in there safety is to sense in aircraft we are always and always alert >> there are hundreds of sensors hundreds of lights you are sitting and you are just scanning from one end to the other with your eyes sensing that no warning should come out no gauge should malfunction no indication no pressurization no hydraulic no change in engine sound no change in you know we we were taught at the said that we could make out the engine change sound and later we said that there is an oil pressure fluctuation. We could sense

28:39 that there is engine is changing the sound and later collaborate with an oil pressure. So this is the kind of correlation. Uh so this only comes with a excessive amount of involvement in training which through your uh podium we would like both of us to uh tell the next generation uh to spend more time because uh when the chips are down the confidence level is another aspect I feel our children are not as confident as you see abroad uh that child a six-year-old child or a 5-year-old child you asking what would you like to be I'd like to be a pilot or I I'd like to be a doctor. I'd like to be an engineer. My name is Peter. And in our case, you call a five or six year old call, he or she'll be hiding behind curtain. This

29:24 thing not wanting to come out somewhere. Uh the confidence to you know and that comes with exposure that comes with in teaching that comes with the child's ability to comprehend things earlier. So this child uh was aware that something is happening. She was aware that I have to come and wake up my parents. I have to tell them that there is something which is so this kind of a thing has to and every common person in the streets has to be aware and this blackout and other things have conventionally stopped now ops though we had a few of these exercises but uh to remain vigilant all across at every stage on the roads on the cities in the mall in the trains in the metro at the airports is everybody's

30:10 responsibility and you will only see things if you are aware what to look or you'll have to be aware. Every child, every young person has to be aware to sense danger and then report that. That's my take because the conflict, the wars have come home. >> They've come home. >> They are not away. As you've written in your book, it it could be thousands of miles away, but it's impacting everybody. Now, this aircraft uh it needn't have been in that area. That pilot could have been flying towards Jakarta for all you know. He could have been flying towards Tokyo for all you know the same pilot. It's not necessary he's flying only in that conflict zone. He could have been flying anywhere. Right. So, and what you are saying now is that not only citizens now even

30:57 employers will have to think uh airlines will have to think whether radicalized people are there in your >> this after 9/11. Now so many checks and balances have come X-ray machines, baggage, remove your belt, remove your shoes all came after 9/11. >> Correct. But that affected the passengers much more. Now with this incident of Fly Dubai, my appreciation is the the crew uh the pilots who are flying now in the cockpit and the cabin crew and others because cabin crews also have access to the cockpit. Uh in emergency they have a procedure. So all people who have access to cockpit uh will have to mandately in my appreciation go through certain kind of checks. now uh to be make sure and uh it

31:44 will be decided who would be flying with whom and in which sector and which area and something like that may emerge in due course. >> That's true. So let me come to the wars now because uh you know those who say that these wars are not impacting on us as your book says that war has fundamentally changed or our understanding of what war was uh has fundamentally changed in such a time and we've seen drones everybody talks about drones and we've I've had several podcasts and uh with people who talk about this uh now you know as an what do you think that uh with these new uh form of warfare which has happened or the morphing of war which has happened. Um is a tank is a fighter aircraft um is

32:32 the infantry man rethinking about how uh wars are going to be fought and uh or are we exaggerating this drone revolution? >> Ma'am uh first of all warfare is as old as human civilization. when the probably the first two people who were born on this earth they would have fought with each other >> so I think it goes back that far and uh all these things of whenever a new weapon system comes when the anti-tank missiles came >> obary for tank was written by many >> okay >> you know when the artillery gun came and uh you know people started saying okay now infantry can't be there because it's an area weapon it will pulverize the infantry but infantry stayed and all the new weapon systems when they come their

33:18 counters also come >> there's a little lag you know when the surface to air missile came does it mean the aircraft stopped flying after that in the battlefield there are counters now there shafts there other ways jammings happening and all those things so every weapon system which is developed within a time frame a counter to that is developed you know that is where we say you have to remain one step ahead of the technology now the drones drones and the missiles have come in. accuracy of drones has increased the it's very cost-effective weapon system which can hit very expensive weapon systems >> and to bring it down also it's a very expensive missiles which at least the USA was firing but now there are counter drone measures which are countries are

34:04 coming out >> now coming to India in particular >> and your question in particular is the time for tanks over is the time for guns over is the time for aircrafts or infantry over Jammu upwards going right up to Siain and then towards that were moving towards the east and Arnachal Pradesh and Sikkim and all as the altitude increases as the uh you can say the visibility reduces and the uh air gets verified the capability of a drone to carry payload reduces >> okay >> a drone which can carry 100 kgs at Delhi's altitude will only be able to carry two to three kages in >> Siainh >> so the the equipment the opon

34:50 uh this optical equipment which is the aiming equipment the payload which is a weapon systems it will not be able to carry at that altitude okay >> then the wind speeds at that altitude >> will not allow the drone to be stable >> then the visibility at that altitude where you have a primary jungle secondary jungle tertiary jungles where a man can't see beyond 2 m drones are line of sight equipment they will not be able to penetrate those tree lines and >> how are they doing it in Russia then? >> No, that's where I'm saying the things which are coming in the news and the media >> is where where drones applicability is there. >> Okay, >> I started my statement by saying Jammu upwards. >> Okay, >> from Jammu to Katch yes they're effective they're there and counters are

35:36 also there >> but Jammu upwards the terrain does not allow the drones or any other equipment which is a line of sight equipment to function at its 100% efficacy. But in Synindur we saw these cheap drones. Uh I mean downwards. >> Yeah. I I'm not saying they were effective. Uh we managed to neutralize it. But it is possible right that these inexpensive drones coming in the plane area and they can send them by the thousands. >> That's true. Those they're called swams drone swamps. That's possible. But again I'm saying it's Jammu southwards where line of sight is there. their area is plain or deserts and there are no winds. The altitude does not reduce the capability of drones. But in those areas, the specific point being an infantry man in those areas ma'am in

36:23 high altitude areas in jungles the infantry man or more specifically that still re supreme. You will say that [laughter] of course I mean you are going to say that the boots on the ground are going to and the uh territory is what >> ma'am see even in the US Israel Iran war >> without the boots on ground there is no victory >> the war which is still going on as late as at this moment there is no victory without boots on ground >> Ashra Kapoor I want to ask you this if drones in high altitudes become less effective it's science right before you know they will be able to carry heavier payloads. They will be able to see night vision. They will be able to do you know

37:10 operate in high altitudes, operate in terrains which today they're probably not able to do it and maybe satellites will help them too. So explain to me that how what can India do to learn this? Should we also be making more drones thousands and thousands of more drones per day? >> Yes. the Russia Ukraine war. Ukraine is actually a test bed for drone warfare. The kind of damage the Ukrainians have been able to make on the Russians >> with drones is a test case. >> Okay. >> And uh 8 lakh drones are being made by Ukrainians per month. >> 10 lakh drones are made by Russians per month.

37:56 >> How many should India make? Chinese are making over 1 cr. So other days >> Chinese are making 1 cr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr drones a month. >> Yes. So I they they for they make some exaggerated things that all of us know but still they are the world leaders in manufacturing. What has happened now? Just see how things Shahed 136 drone is made by Iranians >> which has created maximum havoc 25 to $30,000 drone >> was neutralized by 1 to2 million patriot missiles and they sent them in thousands. >> Yeah. >> So US inventory has come down drastically but they didn't rest here. These drones were shipped to Russia.

38:42 Russians modified them as per their requirement. So the most important aspect which I want to bring across is you cannot replicate bakty which the Turkish have given to Pakistan in the same way as we would like to use it in the hills. This modification research to make it applicable for our conditions is the key and that has to be done instantaneously or in near real time. Every situation in any warfare the person who adapts faster is going to win. All the plans which a soldier or a commander makes goes haywire on the first day because nothing will go as planned. How fast are you able to adapt now and

39:30 take a decision with 50 60 70% inputs and that you have the ability to make good the balanced 30% with adaptability now of either your equipment, manpower, supplies tactics >> that will call the day and this is where the Iranians have done a commendable job. Iranians uh we have given in the book also started to prepare for this war from the '90s. >> Yeah. >> For your viewers ma'am after the Gulf War they realized anything on the surface of the earth will be taken out by the satellites. >> So they went under >> from 1990s they are digging tunnels. In 35 years today they have cities they have highways they have factories which

40:17 are 400 to500 ft deep. the the biggest bomb which the Americans have with they used in uh GBU57 in uh June 25 attacks can maximum penetrate only 60 m that is 200 ft. Anything below 200 ft with a conventional weapon the biggest bomb in this earth cannot create damage. They have started making things below that. They have realized that we do not have air force. our air defense would be taken out. See the only way we have so all along on the coastal region of Iran they have created their air defense networks from where the drones and

41:02 missiles can be launched and they created the cities along in this area to target all the US bases in Gulf >> and this planning began from 2010. So in last 16 years they are preparing for this eventuality and when the day arrived and the next thing for your viewers it has been given by General Dan's part the hydra concept ma'am they divided the whole country into 31 provinces >> it's in fact uh Iran's war strategies in page 89 uh I read this twice over because it is it is kind of uh you know scary also that how how these guys have managed

41:47 So for viewers and listeners please go over this. It's called core war strategy of asymmetric endurance. Uh it comes under regional saturation second uh order coercion Iran's mosaic doctrine. You have to read that and how that doctrine played out in 2026 in this war and how it's been successful. You know forget about the propaganda stuff that you will read about that it's it's been completely wiped out. Read this to understand how and how the national goals um that America set out and Pentagon set out were reduced to nothing literally because of the way Iran planned their operation. Go ahead sir both of you. >> This particular part you know we did lot

42:33 of research and of course with our background knowledge and two parts you touched one you touched on the war strategies and then you touched on the national goals. >> Yeah. When nations go to war, there's a national goal which is first first and foremost thing. Like we went for operation sour. Our national aim, national goal was very clear to hit the terror targets as retaliation to pelgam terror attack and the moment we achieved that means our end strategy is very clear and game is very clear. Now USA went to war on 28th of February and the declared national name through the tweet was regime change. >> Yeah. >> Within 48 hours >> they changed. >> They changed the denuclearization of Iran. >> Another 48 96 hours we will sink their

43:19 navy and we will destroy their military. >> Yeah. >> Another four 2 days we can fight for 5 to 7 weeks. It became a timeline. and karth on 7th of April we want to keep the state of hormuz open which was in any case open on 28th of February >> you've both been in war rooms >> you know you know that this is this is not done you don't change your political goals >> uh you might change strategy but you don't change your >> this is what I was coming to from the political go aim or the national aim flows the military aim >> now once the political or the government of the day has given you a national name. Military drives its military aim. From the military aim comes the military strategy. From the

44:04 military strategy comes the military operations. And that is when you say okay army will do this, navy this this, then we will do on day one this after 3 days this. Now if a national aim is changing every 48 hours, how do you expect the military to keep pace? That is one aspect. Second aspect of this particular operation was USA has the military contingencies starting from North Korea to Vietnam to Afghanistan, Iran, >> you know, Greenland, Cambodia, upna, Venezuela, Cuba and what have you 40 odd places across the world where they are every time looking for a war and how much can they concentrate on one of them is a mute question. Now come to Iran. What Mashel Kapoor was saying for last

44:50 40 years >> Iran is preparing only one type of war and the war which they fought. He talked about air defense and the aircraft because Iranians knew they cannot match the US and Israeli air force in the skies. >> So dynamic >> they had air defense. Isra Iranians knew they can't match the American navy on the high seas. >> So they did not have the aircraft carriers. They had the navy of battle of chalk points. We mentioned this. I explained this battle of choke points navy. >> We didn't know while we were writing. There are two navies in Iran. Your viewers should know. >> There is one Iranian navy. I >> Islamic Republic of Iran's navy. >> There is another navy called IRGCN. [clears throat] >> Yeah.

45:35 >> This is Revolutionary Guard's uh navy. And this navy is along the coast >> with fasttrack boats, with sea drones, with mines, with other things. Yeah. >> And they are like swarm drones. This this navy. >> So the Americans have been able to sink hundreds of those ships. One is off Indian Sri Lanka coast in Dana. >> For your viewers, Dana is the highest mountain that it is in the book also. It is named after that. In Iran, it is one of the highest peaks uh in Zagros mountains >> that uh so the battle has reached Indian Ocean. >> Yeah. >> You find an American submarine in Indian Ocean and the ship is going back after an excess in Vishaka Patnam >> and it gets >> and it it it gets bombed and killed. So

46:22 they have neutralized all the ships but Iranians had prepared for it. The supreme leader got killed. All the top commanders got killed. All the revolutionary guards and other senior functionaries got killed. Their military heads got killed on 28th February. Yet yet seventh today seventh month finished 8th month has begun of this war. Yet everything is functioning properly. >> So where is this chain of command? >> This is exactly what the mosaic doctrine which you're talking about. >> Yeah. This mosaic doctrine is they knew it. They have seen the way Americans will function. They have seen the way Iran function, Israel function. >> So they have gone into the mind of their enemy. Very good. That is very important when you get into the mind of the enemy how the enemy is going to hit and they knew on the day one the top hierarchy will be neutralized.

47:07 >> That's exactly what happened. The mosaic doctrine was that on day one when we have a top hierarchy gone, we will have 31 independent headquarters working and they will work without orders from the top and that are made and given to them beforehand only >> that even if headquarter is bombed you don't have to ask us what to do go off your own. So now we have 31 independent countries fighting with instructions centrally issued against United States. So, so this is where ma'am the war you want to fight. >> What do we learn from that >> ma'am? We learn to fight. One thing as a >> we can't have that. >> No, we as a military commander prepare for the war you are going to fight.

47:52 >> We are fighting terrorism and we are fighting terrorism on something like daily wages person. Now we have a doctrine against terrorism. That means anyone who commits an act of terror is a terrorist. Anyone who trains or houses a terrorist is a terror terrorist and any country which sports finances or trains or equipss a terrorist is a terrorist country >> and is at war with us. >> Yes, that is a fact. We have to prepare for our own war. We can learn lessons from others wars but we have to prepare like I told you Iranians prepared for the prepared the navy for the battle of choke points. So this is uh in some way the enemy uh it's it's like an inorg non-organized I don't know the word

48:37 non-organized kind of war system right uh we have also learned that uh to to become that line between terrorism and a military response from our enemy is morphed now right so we have also learned that in such a situation um The sometimes criticism comes manpower equipment come we don't need in today's world we don't need so much of manpower we need say 1 cr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr dr drones a month we need to do uh we need to have cost uh effective equipment but not so much of manpower we have too many men how do you react to that >> ma'am uh again you have to prepare your for structuring as per your requirements

49:24 our line of control you know which starts immed immediately jammu upwards is hold us keep us you don't have the man guarding that place and we will come and sit there our line of actual control against China >> which we learned also from sachin also >> so again learned from sachin and another thing it is holders keep us concept >> we cannot afford not to hold each and every piece of ground and you know looking at someone else's war and trying to say we are not doing it right people don't realize our war war strategy >> that off sager This thing has come General Dan is saying they occupied our post in 99 >> as per agreement you have to vacate once we so they held the ground and now we have to take it back from them. So we can't afford to say okay puri line of

50:11 control will be you know managed by drones >> will come and sit there >> then you will have to ma'am in mountains when you're holding a defense it requires 13 to 112th one 1 3 1 is to3 or 1 is to12 ratio to evict soil also we once he has come and sit there with a company you'll probably require a brigade to evict M >> whereas it is better to hold it with a platoon >> and that is the reason our requirements of warfare are different. We should never you know all these pseudo intellectuals they will look at war in Israel war in Iran you know war in Ukraine and try and say

50:58 >> they don't even know okay in Ukraine in Iran in Israel or wherever the wars are happening there is no nothing called line of control then nothing called line of actual control then there nothing called the highest battlefield in the world the terrain and the enemy dictates what should be your strategy Like if there was a hormuz Iranian navy went in for navy of choke points that is speed boats the torpedo boards the sea mines the coastal guns the drones the missiles and Iran aircraft carrier everyone has an aircraft carrier so it doesn't work that way >> we have to defend our borders the way they exist on ground terrain never changes rest everything changes

51:44 >> what have we learned Air Marshall Kapoor, please explain to me if if you had uh $100,000 uh would you spend differently today uh on equipment, different kind of equipment as compared to before these two conflicts happened? >> One thing is sure after opsendur if you seen our prime minister has gone around to 40 odd countries. We have done agreements large amount of countries now from Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Philippines, uh South African countries, Middle East are interested in our defense equipment, >> right? >> India's defense equipment was never looked at. India was a net and net importer. What changed after opsindur

52:32 that the thing that changed is in my appreciation our adaptability to integrate foreign equipment with Indian equipment >> different systems also >> different systems in one of your previous podcast I did that yeah >> this is one aspect secondly the bramos the astra our own missiles the impetus that has been given to private sector. Our exports, defense exports have jumped 64% in last year. >> They I think so touched about 38,000 K rupees. >> This is likely to go to 50,000 K rupees by this coming year 2027. The exports are rising. The wish list of the other countries. The best thing which the

53:18 world admires are our trained people. >> So everybody wants to exercise with us. Indian flying instructors are now instructing in Royal Air Force. Indian [snorts] army, navy and air force instructors are in UK war colleges. 45 countries want to exercise with India today. Why do they want to enter? As we speak now, exercise Taranchaki is going on in Japur. >> Yes. >> 40 air forces, four zero air forces of the world are in Japur. Why are they in Japur? Because they have realized that this is one country which is solid, >> which there is they are not in any camp. We don't have to be you know either this or that and they are professionals who will actually tell us because uh as it

54:05 comes out in the book also today the word order has changed earlier we were planning to name it as shifting sands. So the sands are shifting each day >> and the the word has now realized and India's stature in my appreciation has gone way higher after opsindur and after we have started to manufacture this thing. AMA is the fifth generation fighter which is for the first time been given to the private sector. The Rafale has set up its MRO facility for its engine uh saffron engine Hyderabad. The C295 made in India is being rolled out. Reliance Reliance of all the companies is now tying up with Rolls-Royce to manufacture engine. The HL is collaborated with Russian companies of

54:52 Sukoi and USC to manufacture aircrafts in India. So all these agreements are happening. Mahindra is tied up with Embrier. So their C390s are being manufactured in India. All this has happened after Opendor. All this has happened after Chindor. Our indigenous gun manufacturing in next to Amiti is brought in beautiful weapon AK 203 of totally and totally. So manufacturing of uh bhat forge has made our artillery and shells and guns solar industries of Nagpur. I can endlessly name Dynamatics, data patterns, skyroot launching uh the the rocket in the first attempt. So the world is watching us. The world is seeing India and uh we like

55:39 General Dan said we have to be developing things for our our kind of war >> and our kind of war will be fought the Chinese have supplied 81% Pakistanis have imported 81% of the military hardware from China in last 4 years the Pakistanis have launched six satellites after opsendur Pakistanis launched six satellites after opsendur all of Chinese origin and they're looking over India. So we have to change our warfare as per that. Earlier we used to wait for the satellite pass. Now they're constantly seeing watching us. >> Yes. I did a program the other day the EIP air independent propulsion submarines. Hanor the Chinese have provided eight submarines to Pakistan.

56:24 The navy is the weakest. Pakistan navy is the weakest. So they have given them first submarine out of eight. Four will be manufactured in China. Four will be manufactured in Karachi. This will bring in a change. This submarine doesn't have to come up like a diesel submarine to you know take air air it is air independent. It works on liquid oxygen. So now our surveillance our anti-ubmarine warfare our PA ties our MH60 helicopters all that. So this warfare around Arabian Sea Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal region is going to change. And if you see our prime minister went to uh Indonesia. We have done agreement uh for making the Sabang uh the airfield in Indonesia. That is the choke point between great nicobar

57:11 Malaka strait where 70 to 80% of the Chinese shipping go through. So on one end is great nicobar on the other end is the Indonesian island which India has done an agreement with them to develop as a military base. So in case of any eventuality the lesson learned which he was mentioning of managing the choke points today the Houthis are attacking Saudis they have virtually crossed the Red Sea Babal Mandam so what has happened on the north Hormuz is closed on the south Babal mandam is closed the Red Sea the Saudi Arabia's east west pipeline is bombed so Saudi Arabia refineries are now being hit a country which thought just before 28th February

57:58 that they are the ultimate today I think so the most hardpressed in my appreciation in the Middle East would be the Saudis >> because both their exits are choked their >> and America has ignored them completely and the Makkah pact is defunct >> so Saudi has been left with nothing not only Saudi ma'am the complete Arabian Middle East >> the complete Middle East. Ma'am uh in the book we explained again all these things. 1973 >> before that 1953 onwards the oil was discovered in this region. So every country wherever they were finding oil they were selling in their own currencies in their own rates to their own uh people who were buying it. 1973

58:43 Americans told Saudi let's stabilize it. let's make some constant pricing and all that so that everyone sells the oil at the same price and that is where they said okay 1973 >> that everyone will sell oil in dollar US dollars >> and that is where the term US petro dollar came into being >> and that is when oil producing and exporting countries we studied this in school OPEC >> all the OPEC countries decided to sell oil crude in dollars and that is where American academy economy was benefiting from anyone across the world who was using crude or refined oil refined petrol or diesel now in return for that

59:28 Americans had assured these countries that I will provide you security >> which they didn't >> and how of Jews versus Islam how of Shia versus Arabs how of Iran versus Arabian countries and Hawa of Israel versus the Arabian countries and I will provide you security which it failed during this suppression >> and uh the the vacuum that they have created China isn't trying to occupy that >> ma'am you have some you know you are you can see things in the future I was about to come to this point now >> okay >> so ma'am now after this war what's happening I had tweeted in the beginning of the war that there's going to be only one winner in this war and that winner is going to be China Okay,

1:00:15 >> because pro dollar will shift to proje. Why was Saddam Hussean attacked? Because he started dealing in euro. Libya started dealing in euro and Gaddafi. >> And when Mudra was picked up, >> Iran Iran started dealing in yuan that is Chinese currency after the sanctions. So they didn't want anyone to deal in crude in anything other than the US dollars. Now, China will say, "I give you guarantee of security. Iran won't do anything to you." >> Will they? >> That's what that's where the hypothesis comes in. >> And that I don't even want the military basis. >> Huh. Correct. There >> I don't even want the military basis. I'll make sure Iran is under check. You deal in Jan and Petro dollar will shift to petroan

1:01:01 >> slowly, steadily, but I think surely >> and that is the new great game. >> Okay. The new great game. I'm going to come to you sir because you're an intelligence man. So that's why one question I want to ask is that you know we've talked about uh we've talked about weapons buying selling India doing the same um we've talked about the wars Ukraine has a strategic depth uh Israel has uh immense uh intelligence air power domination over its rivals. um one one aspect of warfare uh which is the ability to make a decision quickly. We talked about the civilians. Talk to me about the war rooms and about how decisions have to be dynamic now and how they have to change this hierarchy

1:01:48 system of you know commanders. Is that changing now? Will that be faster, quicker, more decision-m allowed at the you know uh at what level? >> Well, not that it is changing, it has changed. >> Okay. >> The mosaic doctrine is exactly what we are discussing. >> So, is that mosaic doctrine something that India can do too? >> Yes, ma'am. We have it. There used to be a sequential passing down of orders >> with no lateral connectivity in that hierarchy in say second world war and slowly and slowly we have evolved moment the topmost commander is giving an instruction it goes down to the lowest one as also to the laterally to everyone in the battlefield that is very important and why it is so ma'am in

1:02:35 today's world when technology and time is of premium >> a good decision in quick time >> is better than the best decision after 2 hours. Okay? >> Because it's not that you delayed your decision by two hours with the ISR that is intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance available to the enemy. You have given the enemy to us to be prepared. He will come to know what you're thinking. He will come to know where your assets are moving. He will come to know what you are planning. And he will be prepared better prepared after 2 hours. Your decision may be a bit better but he is better prepared. Why on 28th of February early morning that strike achieved the results which it achieved? Because the red hot intelligence came. They reacted without telling anyone.

1:03:22 They did not say okay let's do confirmation. Let's do this and you know for 24 hours. No. And that is how 50 or top commanders were eliminated in one strike. And that is where the world started saying things differently. So we cannot have a hierarchical organization taking decision in today's warfare. >> Okay. >> That is where air kapoor was talking about integration. You talked about integration of air defense weapons. >> Yeah. >> We have legacy weapons like you know zoo 23s, L70 guns which fire belted ammunition and you know aim and shoot and we have S400s. >> Now all these have been integrated. What is air defense? Air defense is detect. there's a enemy aircraft or enemy

1:04:09 missile coming you detect. >> Then you find out which is the most suitable weapon system to engage it. >> Yeah. >> Then you designate >> to that suitable weapon system within range and that weapon system destroys it. This triple D of detection, designation, destruction takes place in few seconds. >> Okay. And that is that is the decision. Iranian shoulder fired missile took down an F15 of America over Iran over Zagros mountains in April 2026 should this is the first loss American loss in 23 years of combat after Iran Iran Iraq war >> and the Gulf War. So what I'm saying is the adaptability the adaptability of the soldiers on

1:04:56 ground to take on high-end equipment should never be forgotten. Our soldiers are now being equipped with realtime information. the the the Indian industry today is heavily investing in arming the foot soldiers, the sailors, the airmen on ground and giving them a near realtime picture of what is happening. So the only thing which is happening good and at a very fast pace is improving the situational awareness and uh we have to be much faster that at narvata is no more a slogan now correct because we have seen the supply lines. Why do you think for the last 6 months there is a ceasefire the Americans are not you know attacking

1:05:44 in a big way. Yes absolutely. So they have also realized that their supply lines are too long and they're taking too much of time >> and so many theaters like you mentioned. >> Yeah. So so so they they have now realized so India this is one of the lessons we have put and one more fact I'd like to put for your viewers in 2021 one US dollar was 2.85 85 lakh real Iranian currency 2021 today if you Google uh it is 2.85 85 million 100 times the currency has devalued in last 5 years >> what 100 times so what has happened now

1:06:30 other than oil Iran needs so many other things >> and the Europeans and the Americans don't want yuan the oil which they sell officially or unofficially they cannot take yan from China and buy equipment from they need food they need medicines they need high-end machinery they need other equipment from lot of other countries they don't accept yan so what the US is trying to do put an embargo so no ship is coming in in doubt I'm not talking of oil any other into Iran so they are now making them pay they they could not achieve the regime change on 28th of February >> militarily they couldn't >> they could not so now politically they could they are now tiring out the the Iranian people because the currency is

1:07:17 devalued so much whatever things are coming into Iran is coming through the Caspian Sea some smuggling from Turkey, Pakistan and the Chinese that centilation route because from the southern side all ingress of the ships and the boats and the supplies the Americans have blockaded and trickle kind of a smuggling is going on but the bulk of the Iranian oil uh has been stopped. So they wanting to bring them on the table at a time when the oil prices are very high. So if you find globally the oil facilities across the world are being targeted be Russia, beat Saudi, beat Kuwait, beat Iraq, beat Iran. So what is happening is the refining is

1:08:03 taking a lot of time. the the the gas supplies. Now India has gone around and now after this war we are taking uh LP LNG and this thing from United States. >> We are buying Venezuela oil >> because these roots are closed. So Americans want the dependence of their oil products from rest of the world. So this whole thing is changing on near daily basis and this is what is the last chapter. Are we prepared? >> Are we prepared? >> Yes. So prime minister went to uh UAE on 16th of May. >> So are we prepared? >> We are not halfway pro work is on. I don't know when we would be fully ready that only the people in the chair would be able to say but uh whatever little we have gathered from this thing we need

1:08:50 the energy security at the highest level. >> Is that the most vulnerable thing? >> Yes. Because we are a country of 1.5 billion people. the the prices are touching $120 to a barrel now. 106 or 8 was yesterday. I'm told it's gone up today. So if we have to import and 85% of crude in India is imported. So if we have to import oil and we do not have enough storage, India has done agreement with UAE for us to store 30 million barrels on our behalf. We are extending our but as you know in our country we take a long time decision decision making and more longer barula just got opened uh after how many years

1:09:35 of course that was different but just that one sector >> correct yes so we take a long time >> I can see [laughter] that one vulnerability is our energy if you were to look at uh what what are the The suppose I was to ask you two vulnerabilities that would make India prepared for a future war. What are the two vulnerabilities? Of course I don't want our enemies to know what our vulnerabilities are. So that is not my concern uh right now. But I would want you to generally tell me that what is your as a military planner as a military commander what were the two things that you think right now we should absolutely focus on? >> Ma'am I won't call them vulnerability. I'll call them challenges. >> Okay. Firstly uh we as a nation handled

1:10:23 this crisis for the first 3 months I think in the best possible manner in the whole world. >> Absolutely. >> Our oil prices at the petrol pump did not go beyond 2 3% hike. >> Our uh you know the cooking gas lines were there because of some uh you know fears and rumors they got normalized now. >> Yeah. And you know other than uh commercial cooking gas we never said okay cooking gas is stopped. So we managed it very well within our resources within our SOPs within our storage capabilities and within our reserves. That is one. Now second is

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