Full transcript of “An Opportunity Like This Won’t Come Again… (Emergency Update)”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.
0:00 The US stock market has wiped out $4.1 trillion in value since the beginning of 2026, and it's now sitting at a pivotal level where investors have come in to buy the market previously. If this level breaks, it could set off some pretty violent moves on US stocks in the coming weeks. It's not just the S&P 500. The NASDAQ 100 is sitting in a very similar vulnerable posture. Now, in the last week, Donald Trump has been trying to accelerate a ceasefire with Iran in the hope to reverse all of the damage that's been done since the onset of the war. Indeed, if we look at the price of oil following Donald Trump's announcement, it declined by roughly 9%. Now, that might sound significant, but putting this move into its context, oil prices remain roughly 40% higher than they were before the conflict erupted, telling us
0:45 that the energy market has not really been put at ease by this recent announcement. If we zoom out a little further and we overlay the US rate of inflation, we know that headline inflation data in the US is heavily influenced by the price of oil. Oil is both a direct component of the consumer price index, but it's also an indirect input for all of the goods and services around us through the energy that it provides to power our economy. And all of this is exacerbated by its volatility. Oil's price is much more volatile than any other major component of the consumer price index like shelter for example that rarely moves more than a percentage point a month. Now, this spike in oil has not yet been reflected by the actual government inflation data from March simply because the government's data gets released a month later. So, the data for March will only be released in early April. But the 40%
1:31 jump in oil prices is almost certainly going to lead to a considerable jump in the government's inflation data, likely taking the inflation rate up to 3.5 or 4% in the next inflation print. If we're right about this, it's going to completely change how the US stock market is priced. One of the reasons for why we've been so optimistic on the performance of the stock market over the last few years is that inflationary pressure has been consistently moving lower. Lower inflation numbers has been associated with some of the strongest market rallies in history. And it's been our primary thesis for the last three years now. But in just a few short weeks, we've radically changed our stance on the stock market because of what's happening to inflation. Inflation is at the center of the financial system. Depending on whether inflation moves up or down, it will make certain asset classes more attractive or less
2:18 attractive. A big jump in inflation data can fundamentally shift how investors are allocating their capital. Take an investor that is holding a stock for example. Ideally, he will want the return on investment that he is getting from being invested in that company to be higher than the rate of inflation. For example, let's say you invest a $100 into the share of a company. And that company produces $5 of earnings per share. Your return on investment is 5%. If inflation is at 2%, you have a real return, meaning adjusted for inflation, equivalent to 3%. So, you have a positive return on investment. If on the other hand inflation all of a sudden jumps to 6% then your real return becomes -1%. So now you are losing money by being invested in that stock and it would probably be a good idea for you
3:03 not to be invested in that company. This is the exact shift that is about to take place on the US stock market. For each share of the S&P 500 that you buy, you currently pay $6,600. The underlying companies within the index generate $234 per year. So, the return on investment of being invested in the S&P 500 or what's known as the earnings yield is currently sitting at 3.5%. Inflation in early 2026 was averaging around 2.5%. So, before the war broke out, the S&P 500 index was generating a real return on investment of 1%. In other words, because of low inflation, investors have gotten used to not needing to ask themselves whether the market is actually too expensive. Because when inflation is low and trending down, that's really not a
3:49 concern. But now inflation is jumping. And as we discussed earlier, it could jump to roughly 4% quite quickly. This will completely wipe out the real return on investment of the S&P 500 index. In fact, it will very likely go negative, and that's something that almost never happens. And history shows us that when it does happen, it is absolutely catastrophic for the stock market. This is a chart showing us the real earnings yield of the S&P 500 index going back to the 1960s. And we see there's only a handful of moments where the earnings yield dipped negative. We've highlighted the dates of all of the moments where this actually happened. And you might recognize some of these. There's 1987, there's 1999, there's 2007. And that's because if we look at where each of these moments were on a chart of the S&P 500, it has systematically coincided
4:36 with bare markets. There's literally not one exception. That means that every single time where the real earnings yield went negative, the stock market experienced at least a 20% correction from its all-time high and in some cases much more than that. The reason for this is pretty straightforward. When investors realize that they are literally losing money by staying invested in the stock market, they begin to sell and that selling causes the price of stocks to go down. In other words, this is when valuations really start to matter. For the last 3 years, investors have gotten used to seeing stock market valuations rise for no apparent reason. Famous metrics like the Schiller PE ratio have reached incredible heights in the last few years, leaving many confused regarding how the stock market could actually manage to continue rising to such
5:21 expensive levels despite a struggling economy underneath. And again, we have been advocating that valuations would continue to rise as long as inflation remains low. But as soon as inflation comes back into the picture, that's when high valuations can start to unwind. This is exactly what happened at these valuation peaks in 1999 and in 1967. In both of these cases, low and stable levels of inflation led to a large runup in the valuations of the stock market and then a sudden jump in inflation data led to a reversal of those valuations. The jump in energy prices that we're currently experiencing absolutely has the power to deliver the same type of pain. Now, let's be objective here. There is still a scenario where the stock market can actually make it out. Okay? If oil prices come back below $80
6:07 a barrel, we think that everything that was highlighted in this video would be invalidated. And the reason for that is twofold. If we look at the last three moments where oil prices were above $80 a barrel, we see that the S&P 500 index was actually falling in every single one of these instances, just like we're seeing today. On the flip side, every time that oil prices were below $80 a barrel, the stock market for the most part was actually rising. $80 a barrel seems to have been marked as the imaginary line for investors to be concerned about the impact of higher oil or unconcerned. The second reason is that if oil prices quickly come back down, the overall impact on inflation would be very limited. Yes, there would likely be a temporary jump, but it would be quickly faded and the stock market would be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel, allowing stock market valuations to remain elevated. The
6:54 problem with this theory is that there are many other structural forces that are pushing the price of raw materials higher right now. And it's not just the war in Iran. There is what's known as a long-term cycle in the price of commodities. Going back over a 100red years, commodities as a whole have witnessed extended periods of large price appreciations where the economy often experiences higher levels of inflation. And then there are long periods where commodity prices are declining when inflation tends to be low and stable like in the late 1960s or in the late 1990s that we discussed earlier. The reason for these cycles is that commodity prices are what's known as mean reverting. When commodity prices are high, there is overinvestment in the space which leads to an overupp of the commodities eventually dragging the price down. When commodity prices are
7:40 low, there is generally a lack of investment in the space which leads to a shortage dragging their price higher. Currently, we are experiencing an upswing in the price of commodities that is also exacerbated by the loss of purchasing power of the US dollar as evidenced by skyrocketing gold prices over the last few years. We also know that the commodities market remains a very underinvested space. The market share of commodity related ETFs is barely 3% of the entire ETF market. In 2011, at the peak of the last commodities upswing, that stood at 12%. In other words, there is still significant room for investors to allocate more capital to commodities, dragging prices higher across the commodities sector. This would put structural upwards pressure on the price of oil and many other raw materials. So
8:26 although inflation could come down, there are arguments to be made for why it won't. And this is why as long as oil prices remain above $80 a barrel, we're staying very cautious on traditional US stocks or technology stocks that are both very vulnerable to this situation. On the flip side, we're shifting our attention to parts of the market that we think are going to benefit significantly from these trends. And right now, a lot of these are experiencing dips that could represent the opportunities of a decade to get involved. We've identified six stocks that are tied to these themes that we believe are on the brink of incredible moves. Investors that are positioning in these now will benefit from the chaos instead of getting hurt by it. The first area is energy infrastructure stocks. As the price of commodities surge, so will electricity costs and so the revenues of these
9:12 companies. These are companies that are also going to be benefiting massively from the AI infrastructure buildout that is going to lead to a surge in electricity usage in the coming years. We also believe that the nuclear power sector will benefit significantly from this. Tech companies have been increasingly mentioning nuclear as a potential solution to their rising electricity usage as a result of AI. And finally, base metals are going to be major winners from this as well. Demand from copper is going to surge as a result of grid expansions and electrification. And that is with the price of copper being at the single lowest level in history when measured in terms of gold. There is significant room for this to be repriced and some of the companies that are responsible for the production of these metals are going to see their earnings go up by orders of magnitude. These are our next big trades
10:00 which is why we've done hundreds of hours of research on these topics to make a selection of the stocks that are the best positioned to take advantage. These are stocks overlooked by Wall Street significantly undervalued that we believe are going to get completely revalued in the coming months. For those who want access to the full premium research report on these stocks, you can click on the link in the description below. It will give you everything you need to position yourself properly. Thank you for watching.
