Climate Change, Development Models and Floods in GB/KP/Karachi - Naseer Memon - #TPE

0:00 In the one and a half month long monsoon, 300 deaths were recorded and in one day 350 deaths were recorded. Majeed Deaths. Whatever you are saying, people troll me also saying that yes brother where has Sindhi gone, you played the Sindhi card, you did not build a dam, now drown yourself. But during all that celebration, we do not remember those 2.5 crore children of Pakistan who are out of school. Sir, in this matter regarding labour, sorry you talked about population control, I genuinely feel that the state is not interested in it because the state has thought that either you produce children or you will send them abroad and send them remittances. The question is, where were you when that faulty building was being constructed? The question should start from here. The regulation issue will come up there.

0:47 [Music] Hello Assalam Walekum If you listen to TV then you know our guest today. He is a development professional and climate change consultant. We call them in unfortunately sad circumstances when the floods are coming. But first of all how are you sir? Thank you. I am good. Sir, when we call you, some calamity disaster has occurred or you bring it with you. Disasters happen all the time. you call me. You think I have been called in times of disaster. Sir, I know, we saw floods two years ago also. Just last time when cloud burst had happened, it had rained, the family was also standing. That was also heart breaking. But

1:34 these visuals of Gilgi Baltistan have emerged in the last two-three days. Some such videos have also come from India that you can see in 10 seconds a flood came, a landslide occurred and the village disappeared. This is normal. Flood is normal. The villages were abnormal. Whatever you are seeing on TV and on social media today. Now it has become visible because people have reached there. These are water pathways. You can take out 10 years of Google Maps of all these areas. Extract the trajectory from satellite imageries. These paths were full of water even then. We have now heard the trump card of Cloud Bust. Claude used to bust even then.

2:20 In this manner water used to flow down from the mountains. He used to come down carrying big stones like this. This is how the mud slide was brought. But that would not have been a disaster because there were no populations there at that time. So to an extent, because when things start getting reported, it feels like it is happening now. This is our psyche. Well, there must be a lot of things happening that is there such an intensity of climate change? There is a change in these two: intensity and frequency. It is not that something new starts happening suddenly. Things remain the same. The intensity increased. The frequency and speed increased and you were no longer able to forecast it accurately. He does that. He is roaming around like this. The weather is spinning with you. It was just

3:08 two weeks ago in Islamabad or a week and a half ago. There is a population New Chattha Bakhtawar suddenly heard that there was a crowd bust there. Heavy water has overflowed there. And luckily there was n't much loss of life, but there was some damage. I got old satellite imagery from somewhere and a friend of mine showed me the place where the actual flow of water was, that there was an S- shaped drain, so its S curve, the bend was straightened and the drain was straightened, a new Chitha Bakhtawar was built over the S bend, so one day the water said leave my path, if you do not leave the path of water today,

3:55 tomorrow the water will not leave your path, so in this way that area got submerged. Before that, a painful incident happened in DHA Islamabad involving a Colonel Sahib and his daughter whom he was going to drop. You can see the video, you have left the house and the water has been taken into the drain. In seconds because the house was built right over the drain. And a house is built over the drain. It does n't even have a barrier wall. He is not even covered. You put the blame on climate change. It is very easy. So climate change is there and it will become more severe in the future. We have to see why and how these three-storey, four-storey hotels, resorts, new communities are being built over the drains. Well,

4:42 not all of them are occupiers. I don't say this. All of them will not be occupiers. There are some among them who, poor fellows, have land ownership beyond the reach of the people in this country. So what do they do? Good drain because it is government land, sit on its corner, no one comes to lift you or will charge ₹4 and let you sit, you can take the example of Karachi, which drains are not filled with people, when it was being built on Lari Expressway, it took 10 years to lift the people, there were settlements inside Lahari x Lyari drain, this which is called Gujrado drain, which has now been given the name Gujjar, I don't know why, Gujjar drain, the situation was same there as well, all these drains have been converted into settlements in the last 20, 25, 30 years. Well,

5:29 not just the city drains, what is there in Sawa River ? You can't even perform an operation there. The interesting thing is that the operation does not take place beyond Fizagarh. Check out the full belt of A Indus. Let me highlight a couple of things. I do not deny climate change. I myself say that climate change is a challenge. But who is aggravating it? Who is doing bad things? There are two or four things, one is our encroachments, whether it is in the form of human settlements or you have created farms in the middle of the river, you have destroyed the forests, converted it into farms, made the unpaved land concrete, and you have settled entire villages and cities there, schools were built, roads were built, electricity came, you have converted it into concrete, but water recognizes the same unpaved land, in its records it is still unpaved.

6:15 He is not sure about the water records. This will be in your revenue records. So when the water comes to claim its way. Many other things happen like this. Which has been damaged by the flow of water in the recent past near Laya. You can ask the people. I talked to friends there. A bridge was built there. 13 Km 2.5 to 3 Km inside the wide part of By building a bridge of , you condensed it and provided a road in the middle. Now a bridge is needed. But if you do not design the bridge properly then there comes a time when the water needs to find its way through. I can give you dozens of examples. So one factor is our fake infrastructure and whatever we built inside it is unauthorized and illegal. Secondly, the

7:05 human devastation that you have seen in Buner Sawat and other areas a couple of days ago is a very shocking and painful thing. Whatever be the reason, it is a matter of sorrow if a human loses his life. 340, 340 have been recorded. I don't know till yesterday, this was the figure till yesterday and many people are missing. In the last one and a half month, 300 deaths were recorded and in one day 350 people have started being recorded, more deaths have started. So what's in it? You can search for deforestation in Malakand division right now and sit and read what is happening there with the Shar forest. Malakand has been your forest rich area. And the mafia there is so strong that they

7:50 cannot touch any good person of yours. So what is the result? What does Forrest say? Forests do not stop it from raining. They stop the velocity of the gushing flow of water. Let me give him some rest. Some stones hold us back. Some mortar also starts to hold back the soil. Now that you have plained it and opened it. These are called water shed areas. When you opened the passage for water, all the mud and sludge that came down from the mountains came down with it. After the mountain is not far away you should understand the bicycle. There is a whole logic inside the ecosystem. There is science, there is nature, there is everything. When you cut down trees from the mountains, it was the roots of the trees that held the rocks of the mountains together.

8:36 Land sliding happened. Now those stones have become loose. When the rain came the next time, the tree was not there. He brought the stone. You please come to Gilgit from Skardu. A very good and wonderful road has been built there. I am telling you some stories so that you can relate to it. We passed through a place which for some reason I had to cross three times in two days. So the driver was local. He came to a place and told me that I was talking to him. He should not reply to things by saying this. When he reached there, he took a breath and said, Sir, please talk to me. I said what happened? He said, Sir, this half an hour or so that we have passed through here is the passage of death. I don't know at what time the

9:22 stone will fall down. So I have to keep my eyes here. Let me protect you. So I asked why do stones come from here? He said that when there was an old road here, it was built by cutting the natural path. Now, instead of tunnels, the contractor has built the road by blasting. All the stone has become loose. Now if there is a little wind and rain, then huge pieces of stones fall down from the mountains like this. Now I can lock up climate change in the police station saying that it is happening because of you. I won't be able to do it to the contractor. Obviously, those who get the road contracts, we just think about it, you cannot stop that contractor. You should handcuff Climate Change and put it in the police station and say that injustice has happened because of you.

10:07 Human existence is the driving force behind everything. I believe that no disaster is natural. All the troubles are human. It is we who make them so scary. There is a hazard and we turn it into a disaster. This is a story of climate change and disasters. On one hand we are saying that the climate change that is happening is man-made. On the other hand you are saying that because of the floods, whatever we say in the world is justified that brother we did not do it nor you people did it. Disasters are coming upon us and we can't do anything to stop them. Even if we become angels, we cannot stop climate change, the actions of the world. But whatever our actions are, it is

10:56 not necessary that if we drown then water will come into it. Ca n't stop the water. But by the actions we have done we made noise that we will surely die. Yes, that means if we have invited Israel by sending an email, then what should we do? I have tried hard, why don't you come for so many days? Look, the taunts we give to the world and the questions we ask are not baseless. I agree. We did not create that many emissions. We have no advice. It's a simple matter. Neither do I have a factory nor am I sitting on any loan. Drink on credit, eat on credit. Which emissions do you want to create? I have done a little bit of my share. But that is a small part of the total global volume. Agreed, but when its impact comes then

11:43 it cannot be distributed evenly. It cannot be that because of that the water falling from above will come down in proportion to your emission contribution, this will not happen, there are no on-off buttons, there are no nets installed so that the orifice of your part is made smaller, less water falls here and more falls there, where there is emission, no, there is one world, there is one universe, one earth, but if someone asked us some day that brother whatever you do, whatever you say about us, we accept it with all our eyes, but if your backbone is weak, you could have made it firm. If you knew, I will tell you about 2022. The whole of July witnessed

12:31 heavy rainfall in those areas of Balochistan which are along the Magrabi border of Sindh. The Mashrak of Balochistan is our border, the Magrab here is the strip of Khatar Range. There was heavy rain there in the month of July. There were record rainfalls. No one knows the ABC of irrigation and flood. So he can also know that this water has to take a detour and enter Sindh. Its topography is like this. You can't stop him. Some secretary or some engineer picked up the phone and got some data from the people of Balochistan that so much water is being generated as run off at your place. He will reach us. Let me prepare. It happened a month ago. The dreadful rains that occurred here in 2022 happened on 17th and 18th August in Sindh.

13:19 Before that there were spells of rain and it rained heavily. But the one who caused the disaster was 17 and 18 and the onward sign we are talking about today is still 17. Now you have brought bad womxn, predict later today, at that time things were worse for us as compared to this time, that is at that time in Balochistan in July and half of August, there had been a lot of rain in the areas near us in Balochistan. That water had been generated. Luckily that situation is not there right now. But see, sometimes it happens that the collision of two-three systems creates problems. Let us look at the year 2010, the forecast was in the first week of August

14:04 that around 7 lakh cusecs of water would flow through Sakhar from here. I have a big flat worth Rs 7 lakh cusec but it will pass. Will not cause destruction. At least it is unpaved, it is a unpaved water path, so if it sinks, it should sink. What happened at that moment was that water was coming from this side. On top of that, in the area of ​​DDG Khan, this Kohe Sleman range received such heavy rains that the next day a new flow of 34 lakh cusecs was generated, which came from Rajanpur and joined the Indus, so that became your seven, 10 11 alright, it was a matter of one day, the timing was that water came from here, water came from here, it became 10 11, Todi Bhaat Todi dam broke or was broken,

14:50 whatever was done, but then the rest is history, in 2022, heavy rains are happening here, the drainage of your cities, your system Mashallah, as great as it is, it cannot bear 20 mm right now and here it was getting 400-500 mm in a day, here some 1500 mm, I don't know how many, within one, two, three, one or two weeks, there were heavy rains, so Indus also came, your water also came, luckily in 22, Indus was not so swollen, so much water did not come in it, there was a lot of saving, by the way, but The water from Balochistan came, it broke the FP bandh, it broke the RBOD, there was Supriyo bandh outside Khairpur Nathan Shah,

15:36 it was broken and Khairpur Nathan Shah was submerged, so it is a matter of timing, let us go at this time, there is not much water in Indus at this time. Maybe next week again some 4-5 lakh rupees will reach Guddu. That's my guess. This will happen in the last week of August. The current floor pattern is that 60 to 70 thousand cusecs of Kabil River is coming. That thing, from our eastern rivers which have been handed over to India, even from there it is probably not more than 30-35000 cusecs. But keep in mind two-three factors which can suddenly spoil the situation. Just like the doctor tells a healthy and cheerful patient that his health suddenly deteriorated. Nothing happens suddenly. Something is happening of which we are not aware. But if I

16:22 do an omnius mapping I wish to be wrong. I pray to be wrong that here in Eastern India there is Pong and Bakra dam and they get filled. He should leave the water. Of course, he will leave. If water comes, what will it do where, it always leaves it to him. If big flows are generated in your Chenab and Ravi, in Chenab, in Sutlej, in Chenab and Sutlej, in 2023, Sutlej was filled because both the Pong and Bakhra river dams were full, so they opened these dams, water suddenly came, from Kasur to the Waseb area, there was severe flood for two-three days, so there is a possibility, now I am a possibility brother, come here, heavy rains have started in DG Khan,

17:07 there your 4-5 lakh cusecs of KP and the runoff generated here will also come down, Tarbela is almost full, Tarbela will not be able to hold the water, there is space in Mangla, but there is not that much water in Mangla in that catchment and if God forbid, there is simultaneous rain in Taran, if these three or four things come together, then it can repeat 2022, see, planning is not done on the best of conditions. Is. Planning is done on very careful basis. We don’t even do the best. This is our amazing thing. So if the worst comes, then at the mercy of God, we will again start taunting the world with climate change. So sir, what we are talking about here is that we create a fake population. People make it.

17:52 Just now when floods occurred in Sindh last time. I also talked about many things. Then I talked to people. He said where should we go? When there is no space, when there is no land then where should we go? So if the Prime Minister calls you, if you go there , he says brother, these illegal encroachments on the river path, housing societies, hotels, all of them should be demolished. He will say Sir, that is the door. Thank you very much for coming. So now we have made the whole Pakistan like this. What do we do now? If you want to start from today. And we will have to make a start. What do we start with? Estimate the losses and set out with the boat. The

18:39 starting place is elsewhere. The root of the problem is actually your population. We broke the wrong lock. Yes. And we do not even have any desire to fill it. Look at today's Pakistan, in 1947 it was 3 crore. If we have made any progress then it is that today we are 25 crore people. Then we say that the Pheasant population has reduced due to water. Don't blame the water. There is just that much water. It has reduced a little bit. This fee of yours has increased eight times. Ok? Now you tell me, if there is even 2% growth in a population of 25 crore, which the government says is not true, then 5 million of your people

19:25 enter the new Pakistan every year. Health facilities have improved. If overall life has increased then this balance is not being maintained. Obviously 5 million do not go away from the world. So you will neither be able to send these people to school nor will you be able to give them polio drops. The tourist will feed you. You will not feed. Anyway, the funeral will be held on Eid only, it is not your job. Ok? You will generate more taxes. This will be a tremendous advantage to you. More population, more taxes, what else do you need? So if someone asks me that Pakistan's issues need to be fixed. There are thousands of issues. The first thing anyone should do is focus on the population of Pakistan. Start the work with sterilization. Yes. Meaning, you make war plans. They

20:12 make war pacts. Sterilizations are also done. Seriously, seriously the world has done it, when Bangladesh was East Pakistan, they constituted 55% of the total population of Pakistan, today they are probably 17-18 crores, you can see the exact numbers, this much, if not more, if they reached 15-17 from 5.25 crores, 3 crores and we have reached 25, then Bangladesh was also like us culturally, it is also like us religiously, and its outcomes may be slightly similar or different. But they did it in Iran, we say that the Maulvi does not allow us to do it here, there is a Maulvi sitting in Iran too. He is also a Muslim. That's what they do,

20:57 brother. If the state wants to jam your program, it will do it like this. If the state feels it is in its power then it does it. She does a lot of things. You state has brought down a powerful country like India. I am neither good nor bad to him. I am saying possibilities. You wanted to do it, you did it. So whenever you want to do it you can do it. So look at all this because of the population, when you said that people ask where to go ? You should have asked them why he threw me out, why did he bring you in, now you cannot say that floods are coming, where should we build our houses, first tell me why we created you, this is enough at

21:43 that time but we can stop the people before they come, see, there is no cinema, no entertainment, what should people do here, people also have nothing to do, the population will keep on increasing for us, that is why I say, see, when this population increases, they say that the land is very expensive Saki, that is what it means, who else will be more expensive than us in increasing this population, that is why they say, if it is a man's fault, then this man's fault is ours, there is no one else, look, you have the capacity of this state for so many crores of people, you are the capacity of the state, a master of a small school, you are not able to send them to school now,

22:28 Patwala is not able to go to school on your saying. On one hand you are very powerful and on the other you are so weak, at least try transferring the compounder to me. Well, at least take him from Nathan Shah to Malir and send him to Ghaziabad, but that is not happening to me. So when so many 5 million people every year you will have at least a head in your population. We will find a roof somewhere. The land condition is such that you cannot afford land for the grave. Now those who are worthy of living in this country. I do n't know how many are habitable, but whatever they are, they are relatively small talukas, you can buy land for me on the road outside them, just look at the rates. So that poor man who is left with seven because of this

23:15 and does not have food for one time a day is probably not even able to be called a tourist in Karachi. Ok? So what do they have then? Drains will be found, Shanti Towns will be built, slums will be developed and this will not just happen here. It will be built from Chitral to Keti Bandar. It will be built from Scoo to Shah Bandar. Go and get ready. The regulations are not like that. Ok? There is no regulation. There is no land use planning either. So what weapon of destruction have you left unused? Let me know. Then and with social consequences this became a home. But in this also Sir, there was a house on Gurjar drain where those people used to live, but what do you want to do after demolishing it? You have to build a road for that, right? The people there who are building the Malir Expressway now

24:02 said that you are building it over the Malir River. This is an ecological disaster. The problem of floods in Sawant also increases because of the hotels. This river side hotel is not for those poor people. If you want to build New Nazamabad on the river bed then it is not for poor people. If Ruda is being made, it is not for poor people. So, I am sure it is a problem that even the poor people who do not have space, make space on the drain. But maybe that is less than what the rich have done. Our overall model of development itself is questionable. Absolutely look, there is a big debate in the world on this issue as to what is progress? This has become a very complicated word. We are so backward in a society

24:50 that we will see progress in the form of bricks. Ok? We will call a solid building progress. A tall building will be called progress. We will call the car progress. Ok? We call air conditioners a progress. But we also need to redefine the word progress a little bit. ok let's come to this as well. Let's go, we are humans. Even if 5 crores are less, they will still need some road, some path, some school, some building. So now the debate in the world is on this thing. Now it has been 30-40 years since these issues of environment and climate change have become mainstream in the world. We have some fresh news. We are sitting in the backyard and the news reaches

25:36 us late. But there have been conventions on this since the 80s. When did the protocol take place? When did the Montreal meeting take place? Rio de Janeiro happened in the early 90's. Even if we take it from Rio de Janeiro, it has been 30-35 years. So the debate in the world on development is on how to harmonize development with nature. This is the challenge. The challenge for development planners is not how the building will be engineered? Engineering made easy. Now it can be done with just one button. Ok? You'll find maps, you'll find designs. You will get a lot. Engineering is not that much of an issue for you. Your problem is that whatever construction you do, whatever progress you make, is it in the form of a vehicle or a road? Is he similar to us by nature

26:22 or is he in conflict? This is the question. Well, the world has done a lot of work on this. For example, a solution called Environmental Impact Assessment was invented. I have been a part of it in some project. So, he has some understanding. what does she say? Environmental Impact Assessment says this before you dig the first spade. Place the first brick. You are experts on nature, development, lifestyle, society and communities and there are experts in the world. We also have many. It is not that we do not have those people. Get it done from them that this thing is not at this place, maybe if it is 2 feet here then it will be fine. Or if it is not six storeys high, it would be fine if it is four storeys high. If something else happens it will be alright. If this

27:09 mud is not made of this material, then it will be fine if it is made of that material. So options are there. But you do it by nature to the best of what is humanly possible. For example, if you want to build a river side hotel then it does not mean that the river side is only on the bank of the river. 1/2 Km There might be a river side behind too, friend. Make a hole there and place a telescope there and show it to people from a distance. This could also have happened. So, I mean, the term sustainability was coined so that we can bring progress into human life. So this is a big debate and a lot of work has been done on it in the world. Many successes have also been achieved. Many failures. There is still no great success, is there?

27:55 But there is a struggle in this. Our problem is that we are not ready to make even this small struggle. You mentioned Mali River, so the Mali River is visible in front of you. There is nothing hidden. Now when you reduce its cross section. You have a 100 year old record of rain. Apply 20% allowance. I am speaking simply. And you see that if that flood comes, or the once century flood comes, then the person whom you have harassed by building a road or anything else, will it be able to pass the water? If the answer is yes, then it is a huge abnormality, if an earthquake of magnitude 10 comes, then your engineering will not be able to do anything. Then you have to make a new design of 12 rector scale. But compliance can be done based on what is possible and based

28:42 on the available body of knowledge and experience. Alhamdulillah, we don’t do that either. That is EPA, here we are just talking about EPA, like you said there are many competent people. But the way EPA approvals are obtained. That too is a competence, isn't it? You do n't want to ignore competence. What should I do, just broaden my heart, that too is competence. So, on the day we had gone to Bairia Town to construct these houses and societies. You have created a monstrosity. No one belongs to him. I printed some things from nearby Dubai. Presents you printed from New York. One printed from Belgium.

29:27 So the idea and development that we have to create Dubai. If they make it, the indigenous knowledge there does not matter, then this is what will happen and what else will happen, do you remember once upon a time Zulfkarabad was being built, then that project did not move forward, in the two-three minute video that was made of it, it was said 10 times that a city like Dubai will be built, Dubai is a role model for the progress of people where the food wastage is probably one of the highest in the world. Now Dubai is glittering to all of us, it is beautiful , it shines, it sparkles, there are cars, there are buildings, these are the things. So Dubai became our model.

30:14 Because the idea of ​​progress that we have created is embedded in it. And you tell someone that brother, progress is that you are sitting on the bank of the river. You have two cows. Clean air comes in. Drinking water is available clean from the tap. There are trees in your village. You grow vegetables and eat them. You sleep comfortably at night in the cool breeze. What do you think? So if you ask any clerk who lives in DHA. He says this is a damn life. He has neither an air conditioner nor a refrigerator. Oh my god, there won't be a car. He lives in hell. So these are the Mujrid Taswaat. These are abstract pictures of

31:00 our progress. That's why I was saying that we need to redefine progress in our context. Let me tell you the contrast. You can take a loan from me. I don't have any to give. Take it from someone else. You have borrowed ₹1 lakh from someone saying that friend, I need it Bhaijaan. Ok. There is no flour, sugar and onion in the house. You set up a mini cinema worth ₹1 lakh. This is also progress. You will sleep hungry for two-four days. You had said that you will eat grass but will fight. So you have this option, right? So if 2.5 to 3 crore children of yours are out of schools today, 45% of your population is below poverty. I do

31:49 n't know how many lakhs of people are suffering from cancer, hepatitis etc. You are part of one of the few countries in the world. Those who have polio do not allow it. You don’t allow it. The poor guy must be asking for polio. Ok? But you have to build a network of wonderful motorways, that is progress. Ok? You have to build airports. There is a lot of progress. So the choices are yours. Now, the bigger the celebrations you organize, the billions of rupees you spend. You enjoy it, do it. It is your choice, right? But during all that celebration, we do not remember those 2.5 crore children of Pakistan who are out of school. When you do not send him to school, then he goes to some such madrasa. If everything is fine in Madrasa, then what objection do we have?

32:36 Your child should get a proper safe environment , education and excellent accommodation. When there were no schools in mosques , children used to study in mosques and they got food there. But now the exploitation that happens in these institutions can happen in schools as well. Ok? So you deprive him and throw him to a place where he will become a fodder for any extremist four. Be it religious, sectarian or ethnic, he will become a founder of some extremist force. So, this human development is another term. what does he say? So he says that Bhaijan, human development is how many people you have the basic education skills. Now let's talk about computers. Now

33:23 computer has come into the definition of literacy. Now he doesn't know how to write in Alpha or can count till five. No, the matter has moved further. Now, we are not complete even on the definition of literacy of the Garo era. Mehboob Haq had created the idea of ​​human development, yes, the concept of human development was on which the Human Development Report was generated, so see, these concepts have evolved. Now there are 10-12 Ash'aris inside it. It includes education, health and also rights for women. Now people also talk about the rights of the minority. Now let's talk about houses too. It's a complete package. What are the conditions of what you call a human life ? What should be called an human life. Now, like there is the word poverty, earlier it was said

34:09 that if the person does not have a return of so many dollars, then he is poor. Now this is how multi- dimensional poverty has come. And now the question arises that what kind of GDP model is this? They call it the World Happiness Index. Do human beings have happiness? That is the progress. It is said that there is not really any progress in GDP. That is the growth of the economy. But if your economy is unevenly distributed. Today on Sunday I was standing with a friend in a very big hotel in the morning. He had come there for breakfast Sir. I had to talk to him for 5 minutes and take permission. On Sunday at

34:55 9:30 am there were 25-30 people standing in queue outside this five star hotel for breakfast saying if any test is vacant then we should go there where breakfast costs Rs. 5000. So on one side people are standing in queue outside the tourist spot. On one side, people are standing in a queue at a five star buffet. There are two contrasts. There are queues on both sides. There is a buffet for Rs 5000. Here we have free bread, we will get it when our turn comes. So having resources is not enough. Put a capita on you. If you were to invest a capita here you would probably be very happy. But if you mix DHA and Lyari and calculate per capita then you will get to know it. So Sir, in this matter regarding labour, sorry you talked about population control, I genuinely feel that the state is not interested in it because the state has thought that either you should produce children or you will send them abroad and

35:42 send them remittances. Or whatever we export on labour arbitrage, why are our exports competitive? Because we do not consider humans as humans. Labor is cheap here. There are no labor rights. That's why our exports are competitive. We are playing with this technology, I don't think they have any interest in it that they will control the population. You your you also interact with government government organizations you work with international organizations. There is so much blatant elite capture that these people who sell land, trees, build housing societies and sell them, they think that they will sell it and go away. When the flood comes after three-four years, what will happen to us? We will be in Dubai, Belgium at that time.

36:29 They have Pakistan and You were born in some other Pakistan. The issue is with your software. He is alright. He is very happy. His Pakistan is progressing. He is happy. He is completely free. And it is at the root of the world's surface. These are the issues of you poor people that you are telling me about. This is actually our two nation perspective. Pakistan is a stopover in what is their Pakistan. There is little living space. This is a place for holidays. I should come and meet my friends once or twice a month. Go out in the evenings. They take their cars, roam around, eat food and then go back to their real country and after going there,

37:15 write about Pakistan. Songs and tunes are very dear to my country from there. Sitting there, they can also do Pakistan's politics. This is the fun. Give us a lecture too. I tell you. Yes that's how you should be. This is your issue. You see, the issue is fine with you. So brother, you talk about elite capture. Perhaps now I wonder what this country is like ? What do you mean perhaps? It's a simple matter. There is an occupation of one country. The rest of the creatures are slaves who are born to serve them. His job, as you said, is to provide cheap products to them through cheap labour. Provide them cheap labor. But what you were talking about is that they should send it to people abroad and

38:01 give remittances. They don't even have the sense to increase their population so that they can send it abroad and they can give remittances. It has become difficult for you to send it out also. At the bottom of the world, you have your passport. UAE, which was formed into a union by one of your ministers, does not give you visa today. You should ask for UAE visa and show it to me. So why doesn't he give it? One is our deeds and the second is what do you have to offer to the world now ? Why should the world call you? Meaning, if you want to call someone from outside to this flat, you can call him here to make tea. Will call to fix the pipe.

38:46 Will call to fix the electricity. There must be some reason why you would call. If these four or five things are of no use to the person passing through the street. So why would you want to call? So now what we used to call cheap labour earlier. Our people used to do driving. Our people used to work very hard as labourers. He was a construction laborer. Worked in many shops. Fala stopped at the petrol pump. Now see, due to technology the definitions of human resources have also changed. The driver who would go to UAE from some poor area of ​​Pakistan and would stop the taxi and take it if someone offered to hand it over. Now, if he doesn't know how to read Google maps and doesn't know how to operate that software,

39:33 then only the one who has Google maps will be called to buy the car. Now it is driver less. Now even the driver has left. Now driver- less vehicles are available. Ok? There is no labour at all. No, we had progressed long ago. We continued running the country without rulers. What if he drives the car? There is a dummy son. We have run the country, friend. The thing is that if the prince is not able to adapt to the demands of the world then the world is not going to stop for us. So you keep increasing the population, but should that population have any capacity, is it human capital or human liability? First you should decide that most of the out of school children in the world, Pakistan, what will they do,

40:19 I said here in some Madrassa or some other Madrassa, I am giving you an example, they will go to some other place where you will not have any control, you do not know what work they will be put to, they will go to some organization, for example, I am saying that they would be exploited by some contractor or this human resource of yours would keep on begging in the streets and intersections. Ok? He will commit whatever crime he can to survive. Now he has come into the world. What should he do? So how competitive are we? This is the question, is n't it? Well you said our labour is cheap so our products are competitive. Should be. I believe the same way China does.

41:04 But if your electricity is three times more expensive, then that too is a big input for the product of anything. So there are many ingredients available in the market. So I think we somehow need to look at these things in a totally new way. From exports to climate and disasters. But we are very busy. We do n't have free time. I am sorry. We also know what those people who want to think this are thinking. Sterilization cannot be done. If this is the situation, all these issues are there today, there is construction as well. Can we take some baby steps ? What to do to mitigate. Look, I will still say that as the first step, no matter what happens, we

41:50 need population control. Yes that is a long term thing but if we become straight even today in 20 years then maybe in 20 years we will see some results. This thing will apply to whatever solution you find. You don't have a magic bullet magic wind that will fix right today and tomorrow. This will not happen. We have to do this simultaneously on multiple fronts. Now I am talking theoretically in a big air. You should also talk about population control. Just look at my wish. It is a great pride to control the population. Ok? Then we say that if I say it in the context of disaster, then I am not going into each and every one of the many departments. I will be the starting point of education. There might be someone else for health. For example, we talk about disaster management. The

42:35 biggest reason for disaster is that all the paths for the natural flow of water are blocked. We might have left out a few. Now I am not talking about any corner of Pakistan. Get 50 year old maps out and they are there. Satellite imagery will also give you Safari. Taking from the world. Mark where and which natural well drains we have blocked and they are in very large numbers. I am talking about Jamun in 2013. 2013-12 Something Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority Lewis Bajer is a company consultant. He was given an assignment to make a master plan regarding the Left Bank of Indus and something was made, that document is available. He identified

43:23 some 101 major drains on the left bank of the Indus. He said that you should fix this at all costs. Will have to open it from somewhere. From somewhere he said that it wo n't open. Now you give it a bypass drain. Gave him sessions also. And also asked to construct some new drains. 10 12 13 Some were like this. There were not thousands. And I think at that time he did not even mention the price of Rs Billion to fix it. Then the Sindh High Court said in a decision that these blocked waterways should be opened. The plan has been made, the study has been conducted by the government itself. Not a single drain was opened. Ok? The things that could have happened, you had diagnosed the disease and also found the treatment. But we didn't. Our preferences would

44:11 be different. So, at least wherever we have blocked the natural water ways and wherever the settlements have come up along these drains, I am talking very simply. If it has not become so easy then at least today if you can do this much that you mark that these are 15-20-25 hot spots. Human lives are at stake here. People suffer losses. There is also financial loss. It also happens to be known. You will say yes this is red. I will not let anyone set foot here from today onwards and the state has that much power. You start from here and stop that. Then you come and make five, seven or ten faces.

44:56 Ok first the next hottest part is this. I will remove these four things from here. It will take me 2 years. If you make a plan then let's go. This should not happen overnight. Ok. But see where does the matter fundamentally start from? Then where will it come from? Even then the matter will come, there will be some institution on governance which will have to do this, someone will have to exercise the authority, if someone questions then it will happen, today you refuse to make people there and in the middle of that if you are just increasing the rates of someone's transaction, who has some possibilities, then that is the thing that starts from the top, the problem does not start from the bottom, within the states, the states do not get better from the bottom, the bad also has to happen from the top. The fix has to be done from the top. If

45:42 you bring revolution from below then it is a different matter. That's a different tangent. But in this situation where you are standing, if someone says that no sir, this is to protect Pakistan. People's lives have to be saved. It is double. It is not that we are talking about something impossible. Well, I’m not even saying that everything will be okay. In this situation, disaster also occurs in America. It is found in China and other countries as well. But you see, if a 9 Asher something on the Rector scale hits Japan and no people die there, and you have 75,000 people die in the series of 5 and 6 character scale, then the nature was the same there also. Nature was the same here too. The difference was somewhere else. This 15th August, the recent

46:33 busiest hit in C-D Road, Sawat, the last one and a half month has been a disaster for you, honestly if you ask me, except for two or four space spells, there was no ordinary monsoon in Pakistan, in the last one and a half months, see, more than 300 people have died, you analyse the data, 55% of the people, I am talking about the first 300 people's lives, and the first five weeks, that means you take the data from 26th June to 30th July. 55% people died due to house collapse. Then you should examine the house also. I say that a climate audit of the entire infrastructure of Pakistan should be done once. Then just leave your country and start living somewhere else.

47:20 Then look at you, then you should diagnose the disease, it is easy now, it is very easy to transfer the problems of the earth to the sky. Same thing here, it means as soon as I am it is set then done, even when we went to the Viliyari building, Murtaza Wahab said that we had said that this building, this structure is not safe, but I also spoke to the people there, said where should we go or what should we do, and that's not the only building, there are other such buildings in Lehari but what should one do, people are living by playing with their lives every day because they genuinely have nowhere else to go. The question is, where were you when that faulty building was being constructed? The

48:07 question should start from here. Ok? The regulation issue will come up there. What is this disaster case? Land Use Plans. You don't have anything called a land use plan. Every piece of land is a plot for you. So what will you do then? You will want to create something everywhere. Ok? So our other wishes are bigger. It rained two or four times. Firstly, there is a pain in the heart that why there is no dam in Pakistan? Many people told me that you are against the dam. I said, friend you would have made him king for 30 years. When did I stop him, it would have been done otherwise. This is the best thing about the situation. No, to dream big there should be two or four dams. Brother, you have not been able to make the one you were making for the last

48:53 30 years. Neelam Jelam made ₹600 billion, you have not been able to run it till date, who will ask any questions, okay the price of slaves has doubled and tripled, tell us any scheme whose price does not double before it ends, we have the entire chess board of development planning which is messed up, so I was saying that whatever is possible, you have to at least save human lives, those heart spurts have been marked. It is not that you have to invent any new science. District level vulnerability plans are already prepared on your NDMA website. The people of this country made it. You should get it enforced. You do n't give ₹50 to the local government so that it

49:41 can throw lime on the road. Whatever there is, it goes into salaries. The rest go to the bungalows. There is nothing left. So where will the regulation come from? When the state wants its rights from the loyalists, we will do so but when we get our rights from there, we will not give them up. This thing you are saying, people troll me too that yes brother where has Sindhi gone, you played the Sindhi card, you did not build a dam, now drown yourself. So these people who talk about when water comes and there is a dam, please inform them. In 2022, many people told me that if Kalabagh Dam was there today, there would have been no flood. I told him that Bhaijan the flood came from Balochistan, then there was urban flooding locally in Sindh, so

50:29 what did the poor Kalaband person living 1500 km away have to do, today your Mangala is still 30% empty, what should we do then, your language, you have not been able to do it for 30 years, you should have built it by now, you should have said that if there was a dam, it would have been saved, so brother, it has been going on for 30 years like the construction of a mosque, I do n't know, up to 2000 billion has been spent. So what needs to be made cannot be made, but we will make something new. Where will you make it? We will make it here and we will make it there. So look, dams are not the solution to the entire world's problems. Then water is also needed for ecology. Now you go to Sajawal and ask people what they have seen about the water after 10 months. 200 Km below Indus Kothi. Is. Don't say this. People think that the Deaf Arab starts below the closet. Even below that, you have three or four Ajlaas.

51:15 Farming is also done there. Humans also live there. It has a population of two-million - Badin Sajawal and Thatta. He is a human being. They are citizens of this country. It is written on his identity card. So the ecosystem of the delta is recognized all over the world. No, are we not talking about it? So these are all the requirements that have to be fulfilled. So you get water for two months in a year. That too, you should take data of last 25 years. I am giving you the reference and the data is there. Of the Government of Pakistan. It is not mine. The minimum flow which should have gone down to 10 million acre feet which is written in the water records, did not go down in 13 out of 25 years. A dam is built for just one season, you will build a dam worth Rs 2-2500 billion and

52:03 now you do not have surplus water in the system. I will talk to some data. I am not talking about slogans. If we talk about data, then at least since the data of this system is available on the Western River of Pakistan and at this time, that is, if I take the pockets from 1976 to 2001, from 2001 to 2025, if we take the second 25 years, quarter centuries, then in the last quarter century, close to 140 million acre-feet of water used to flow downstream. Now it is 120 left. 9 million, approximately 9 to 10 million acre feet of water used to come from the Eastern River which is near India. Now it doesn’t even reach 3 million acre feet. In the last 25 years of the last century, on an average about

52:48 40 million acre feet of water used to go down from Kothadi. Hardly 14 million acre feet of water has gone down in the first 25 years of this century. So we will talk about data, it means your dam is a reservoir of water. Let me tell you why don't you open an account with Standard Chartered? Bill Gates has opened 10. Now if you do n't have the money for your salary, then Bill Gates has opened 10 accounts, so Shahzad should also have 10 accounts. So brother, if he has surplus then he will do it. So the question is do you have a surplus or not? Water is stored when you have a surplus. The water that comes in both of these is a disaster, I say it again, this is not a disaster of surplus rain and surplus water. Find its roots and let this water come. The raw one needs water. The delta needs water. The poisonous ground water needs to be

53:34 reconstituted. To keep this system of nature functioning, the flow of this water is essential. So I do n't want to blame this water. The problem lies elsewhere. I have pain in my leg. Don't hit me on the head with a hammer. Treat the leg. So this is a wrong prescription. Wrong diagnosis, wrong prescription. Let the River Flow. Sir, we have 10 minutes. There are many questions. Will do it in rapid fire. How climate change has affected and why weather patterns have changed. We have not observed monsoon rains in Upper Sindh like Gotki. Look, this year, as I said about the weather pattern, after climate change, it will become difficult for you to predict the weather correctly. But the regional climate outlook which came, this time the regional outlook for entire Asia came, it was three months ago that it had

54:20 already been forecast in it that there would be below normal rainfall in Sindh, so some of the things are already present in India, we need to align things with that, what measure in terms of development of non perennial canals can be taken in Chitral, 7.25 km, South Punjab, North Punjab and areas like Lasvela to avoid and reduce devastations during monsoon, there will be other solutions for these areas according to their respective geography. Whoever is from Chitral cannot be from Lasbela. I think I have already talked about the disaster that is going on, that you should get the Heart Sparks evacuated. You save people's lives. What remains is to store the water. His methods are present. You can build small dams in mountain areas, but keep in mind that they will not be able to withstand such a gushing flow.

55:05 You will have to search for that place. He has his own engineering. Dams cannot be built everywhere. Areas like Lasbela which are not hilly are a bit flat land. There you will have to use river ground water recharge and other methods to conserve water. Solutions will vary from area to area. There wo n't be one. Bro what about the program you were going to do with him on Manchar Lake. That was promised last time. There is a promise. But we will do it. Let the rain subside a bit now. We will do it once the monsoon risk is over. Ask Naseer Memon about climate change in different cities and regions of the country. Specially based on Geography. And also ask him in brief about Indus river issue and their impacts? And this is a very broad question. We covered a lot of these things in our last podcast, Then A May B.

55:51 Will climate change completely destroy Pakistan's population? Since I heard that climate change would be so destructive that it would cause mass migration as a result of its devastation. There is one country which has closed down every country. He said that it is over. No, look at this thing about mass migration, you will see it now, it is not a thing of today. The amount of migration that has happened from the Indus Delta in the last 50 years, the people of KT Band and Shah Badlaiko, these Ready and your Ibrahim Haidri are filled with these people. These are climate migrants. So this is the impact of climate that we are not able to connect. But migration is taking place. Life in cities will become more difficult in the coming days. Because of this, I forget its name, but there is a country which has destroyed its nation because they were so prone to climate change that it would have

56:37 sunk. The country has sort of to exist. What can Pakistan do by itself to reduce the effects of heat wave caused as a result of climate change. See heat wave again, temperatures will increase because we have overall emissions which are not in our control. But the brown cover that we have replaced in the green cover is becoming the biggest reason for our localized heat waves. We have to increase green cover in cities. His ways are present in the world. If you want to do it then you will do it. If you don’t do it, it will never happen. Ask him to explain in detail what this is that people of Sindh have with the construction of Kalabagh Dam. I think we did it last time. Could There Be a Way in Which Construct I Think was covered last time. Will the Indus River Survive? Yes, if we don't do it then

57:24 maybe Indus River will do it. No, the river is not such a small thing. Yes. There will be issues with his butt surviving. As an environmental expert, Can Naseer Memon Sahib suggests the areas of research regarding climate change particularly related to the Indus River in the context of Sindh and Pakistan which needs to be worked on by beginners in the environmental field. Look, you should start your research from the water shed or where the glove is from where the water and run off is generated. When it comes to plains, one needs to do a complete survey of at least your flood plain. This is a separate research as to where we have disturbed the flood plans. Let us map it. This can be done by the universities of Pakistan. This is not such an extraordinary research that it is impossible. At least let us do this. Actual and predicted effects of

58:10 GPI on Indus Delta. GPI is written GPI. I don't know. How to reclaim Indus Delta is mangrove forests the only solution and there are more questions in light of current record load downstream flows? No, look, the delta has no value except for water. there is no cure. You will not be able to create the entire nature artificially. The delta needs water. How will the Indus and its people, in particular agriculture, survive in an intensifying climate change, extreme heat waste, flash floods and droughts in Pakistan? Not hardly, actually, this is a huge debate and if I talk about agriculture, now there is a debate on this too in the world, that is climatically appropriate agriculture or climate smart agriculture,

58:55 what are your approaches, how are the variations of seasons, this is the entire subject of climate appropriate agriculture and work is being done on it in the world. R R Planning about migration from rural areas to urban areas it makes one day destroying the resources that we have. I am not in favor of this type of rural and urban economic migration and climate migration. This will definitely affect the cities but also the rural areas. It will affect cities too. Both of them need connectivity with each other. You call the villages Pakistan's whole issue and say that there is no development in the villages. Therefore people rush towards the nearest city. How much has the clear cutting of forests affected Pakistan's climate? Very seriously, this is a very big element.

59:43 One of the biggest reasons for your micro climate is deforestation. Sir, before leaving I recently made a video on Kota system. While making that video, I found one of your old articles which had big numbers. So I don't think you will remember what the numbers were. But in general what is your opinion. My opinion is that look, I am no longer in favour of rural urban quota in Sindh. There should be a quota of provinces in Pakistan. But let me tell you one thing that the day the rural urban quota ends in Sindh, very soon a voice will be raised from the urban centers to reinstate the quota system. Let me tell you this. Because now the

1:00:28 dynamics have changed a lot. I think we need to move forward on a lot of things. There is so much interdependence between the city and the village that if any one of them thinks that we will manage alone. So they live in Fool's Paradise. Thank you sir. Thank you for taking us out of Fool's Paradise a little bit. People who have influence. Think about climate change or take our passports and visas, where will we go? The climate will follow us there too. Otherwise I would have lived a few years more and I would have felt very sad after watching TV for four to five years. Oh Allah. So if you want to go to America and

1:01:13 spend the last 5 more happy years of Trump sir then go ahead and enjoy. He had given a lot of support to Trump. The Pakistanis had invested money to ensure that Trump comes at any cost. Now it has come, see it now. Thank you sir for your time. And thank you, listen. Take care.