Crypto-Nerd zieht GOLD dem Bitcoin vor - das solltest du jetzt wissen (ENG Interview)

0:00 for deep indarts. Bitcoin is the top. Bullish bearish promoted.

0:56 Josh, it's a huge honor um to have you on. As I just mentioned in the intro, I'm actually following now for close to a decade. I think 2016 or 17 was the first time I came across you on on Twitter. Um, you are right now in Philadelphia. Huge honor to have you on. How are you, man? Good. Great to be here. It's uh it's funny looking back on 2016 to now and where digital assets are, where crypto is, where everything like has been, has exploded twice, has you know run up three times. It's just it's crazy. Yeah. I mean, it has been a wild ride, especially if you um got into crypto before um 2017. And it's crazy um to think about it. It feels such a long time ago, but um time went so so

1:42 quickly. and you have been doing content um non-stop um about Bitcoin, about um crypto, but what are you currently up to? You I I think you met just mentioned you are actually head of trading um in a in a firm in the US, but give us some Yeah. context. Sure. Yeah. I started doing content in 2016 because I just felt like there was nobody out there at the time talking about crypto stuff. So that's really why I started. I didn't know anything, you know, when I started either. I also started poor. So, uh, you know, people wonder like why the hell is this guy still here? He's, you know, um, it's one thing if you come in crypto a decade ago with money. I certainly did not. So, I very much, uh, you know, started from the bottom, now we here type thing. But,

2:28 uh, so currently I'm head of trading at Canary Capital. We're a digital asset manager. We have a hedge fund. We have several private trusts and we also have several pending ETF applications in the US. So if even if you're non US, I think eventually maybe you should have access to some of that. I'm not quite sure what what the rules are in Euroland, but um so yeah, that's my day-to-day. And then like you mentioned, uh I still do content just for myself. It really acts as a trading journal. It helps me go through the motions to look at everything outside of not just our own investable universe in the fund in the hedge fund side, but also just get an understanding of macro stuff, which I didn't know anything about. you know my background before this is medicine and uh biology so I don't have like this

3:15 like foundation in e economics or anything um so you know macro stuff what's the world doing what is the S&P doing how does that affect crypto something like we'll talk about it later but um small cap ETF IWM relative to Ethereum you know why is that correlated it's like a onetoone correlation it's wild um So seeing some of the stuff that's outside of crypto helps you, I think, understand a lot more about what's going on inside of crypto. Yeah. Yeah, definitely. Definitely. And I I can just highly highly recommend um your YouTube channel, also your Twitter or X profile um these days. Um you do a lot of content um there. I think you do like three to four videos um a week and

4:01 all of them are um yeah, really really high quality. So really enjoy watching um them and we definitely going to um talk about macro and also about um the current um crypto bitcoin cycle. Is the top already in or do we have um another run this year? Most likely. But before we do that, I always like to start with a quick rapid fire um to get to know you better and also for the listeners. Most of them probably see you or hear you um today for their first time. So, let's do a quick rapid fire 10 questions and afterwards we talk macro. When was the first time which year when did you buy your first Bitcoin? 2013. 2013. You're a real OG. One of the um

4:48 legends. I wish it was a cool story. Like I know this is the lightning round, but I wish it was a cool story. Was like I was on Silk Road, you know, none of that stuff. Just just uh I heard about it on Reddit. I thought it was interesting. I thought the tech was super cool honestly like and then the price ran up so here we are. Yeah. I mean and it's awesome that you are still around and still doing um content. Um so highly appreciate that. What was the first altcoin you ever bought? Litecoin. Litecoin. Do you still hold it? No. That was also 2014. For some reason one of the one of the friends at the time who I got into crypto with super into Litecoin. He was like a silver bug. still is a silver bug. I don't know why there's, you know, there's that that uh correlation with

5:34 the silver people, but Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it was always, hey, Litecoin is a um silver to um like silver is to gold. Litecoin um to to Bitcoin obviously um didn't work out um too well for for Litecoin. But what was the most ridiculous alcoin you ever bought? Because Litecoin is still one of the serious ones, but I imagine you bought some ridiculous ones along the way. I mean, this cycle Mog for sure is probably the most ridiculous emoj. Yeah. Yeah, I know. One of the the meme coins. Yeah. Do do you still um you still have a mock back or was it just a quick trade? It's a quick quick in and out. Yeah. Cloud setup. Yeah. Execution. Yeah, makes sense. Um what do you think about

6:19 the current cycle? Do we get another all-time high in Bitcoin this year? I think we do get another all-time high, but it's not going to be in September most likely. If we look at the seasonality for September, for BTC, it's really negative. Even for just legacy markets as a whole, seasonality is negative. And that just means on balance, what to expect? Probably nothing. Probably chop, probably down. Obviously, you know, Ethereum is going through a bit of a renaissance right now. There's reasons that the seasonality could break. We'll see it if we see it, but based on price action that we're seeing going into September, it doesn't look too great to me for BTC. So, but I do think we have a little bit a little bit in the cycle left. Yeah. Yeah. So, you still a believer in the 4year cycle? For the moment, I I don't think you can

7:05 say with confidence that it's over until we actually see that evidence for that, you know, but based on what we've seen thus far is four year cycles. So, I think it's perfectly perfectly reasonable to continue to expect that. And much like seasonality, that's a seasonality in its own, right? The four-year economic cycle. Even with um Trump and the midterms and global debt and even what you guys doing in Germany with the the defense budget, right? Uh everybody's just going crazy spending. Yes. So, if there's anything that's going to negate a four-year cycle, it's going to be stuff like that where the Fed is bringing rates down, the world just keeps spending. Maybe Trump is sending out stmmies. Maybe other countries are sending out stimulus in some other fashion, right? that could keep this party going. Absolutely. Uh but for the moment, the expectation is

7:51 2026, be careful. Definitely agree on that. What's your cycle target for Ethereum? Do you have one or just like um take a a swing at it? Yeah, I think between 7 and 10,000 USD. Do you guys Can I ask you do you guys what do you guys trade on the crypto side, the pair? Do you focus on the USD pair or No. um mostly on the on the Bitcoin um pairs. Um obviously um that's So you don't have like a Euro, German, Bund, whatever pair I don't know. Yeah. But so we for mostly obviously dollar um there are um euro pairs um but also in in Germany you trade mostly the USD pairs um as there's more liquidity. Simple as that.

8:37 Gotcha. So most um also cycle targets are more about dollars um than euros. Yeah. So no flipping. Do you still expect higher Ethereum prices but um no flipping? Because I recently did a video there was a lot of talk about um Joling came out Tom Lee. Hey um Ethereum is going to flip um Bitcoin once again. I didn't I thought um I never would hear um that story um again but here we are. But you think um Ethereum has well if I room to run but no flipping. Yeah. If you or I had a Ethereum asset treasury company Yeah. then I would What else are you going to say, right? like you have to say that this thing's going to continue to do well. Yes. Yes. Uh I I don't see it this cycle, you know, we'll see. We'll see. There's a lot of people who

9:23 expect price to to appreciate based on activity on the chain. That historically hasn't necessarily been the case. Yep. So, you know, it's kind of it's separated. It's decoupled. The value acrruel piece is not the same as the activity piece. And for Ethereum, it's challenging too because it's got all these L2s that sees way more activity. Arbitrum being the primary example. Um, so it's kind of like a parasite for the ETH token price, you know, it's just activity going elsewhere. Yeah. People buying another token. It's just competition for for ETH. Yeah, definitely makes sense. Um so you're trading mostly crypto uh still focused on crypto but obviously um you you watch a lot of other asset classes.

10:10 Are there also asset classes where you actively invest in besides stocks? Do you buy um gold? Do you buy any other commodities? Um what's like your day-to-day trading? Yeah, I think for anybody as they get wealthier they expand, you know, a little bit. They diversify a little bit. I've certainly done that uh over the years a little bit. Um just this cycle I started trading a lot more legacy stuff because even in 201 I want to say 2015 when one broker was still a thing for the people who know what that is. Um it's a C it was a CFD exchange. But what people tended to notice is like hey just because nothing's going on in crypto doesn't mean there's other stuff

10:55 that you can be trading. So why are you forcing yourself to trade where there isn't a trade to be had? Right? So giving yourself that opportunity and optionality elsewhere versus like banging your head against the wall saying, "Oh man, this thing isn't working out right now, but I'm going to try to force blood from a stone or whatever." Right? Uh it just doesn't make sense. So like BTC now, my whole thing is there's there's trades elsewhere. Like you don't have to force a trade here on BTC up or down. it. I think it's just easier to trade other stuff right now. 100%. Um, so one asset you recently bought can be any stock, commodity, um, whatever it is. Uh, to just today I added to my gold position. So GLD, which is an ETF, but

11:41 uh, KB is another one I bought recently. It's a Chinese internet ETF. The ch the China stocks look really good here. We definitely have to look at the gold chart and also on on Chinese stocks. I'm bullish um on both as well. Um and so definitely going to do that later. One asset you recently sold. Yesterday today today I sold XLU which is a utility ETF that had been running up a lot in correlation with this AI data data center narrative in the US. Yes. Um I still think utilities are going to be great but I just didn't like the the trailing stop-loss level that got breached. I use Williams fractals, which is like a technical term for um pointing out higher highs and lower lows. And then when you breach that, that's my

12:28 trailing stop-loss level. So, we breached that today. We could look at that as well later. Yeah, let's um do that. But before we go into the charts, let's talk um macro first. Um so, most likely it looks like we're going to see um some rate cuts in in September. You just mentioned historically September isn't the best months for crypto, isn't the best months for for stocks. So right now I have the feeling everybody expect um either a correction or at least a slowdown in in September which gets me thinking if everyone expect actually a correction into September maybe it's something else cuz right now I think if you if you do a survey on on on X and asks hey where's the cycle top probably everyone going to tell you it's somewhere between October

13:14 and and December. Do you see a chance that we actually get a move into uh into September that it's going to catch a lot of people off guard? Yeah, I think there's two big things to watch for on BTC specifically. If we can hold a daily close above 118,000 in September, then seasonality is probably out the window, you know, which bearish seasonality is probably out the window. If come October, early October, we cannot hold a low in early October, then bullish seasonality may be out the window. So, those are the two big things I'd watch for BTC. Gold, like we'll get to chartwise in a second. Gold looks excellent here on technicals. And if gold is running up, BTC most likely is

13:59 not running up at the same time. Yeah. So if I had to craft like a perfect picture of expectations, it would be gold has a bullish continuation move here and then we see some uh transition period into into BTC ETH. Go ahead. Go ahead. No, no, go. Um you want to talk about ETH? Yeah, I was just going to say ETH ETH um ETH and alts broadly could run on their own here independently. You know, it's it's not unreasonable to expect that especially again if we take the parallels to NASDAQ, QQQ, and IWM zombie cap garbage companies, right? like these companies probably have no reason to exist, but from a relative value

14:46 perspective, they are gaining on um the Mac 7, the best companies in the history of the world, right? And it has nothing to do with the quality of the business. It has everything to do with the fact that the Mag 7 has just run up so much already. It's just easier to to rotate elsewhere. So, we're I think we're going to see potentially some of that in crypto as well. Do you have an opinion on the on the bigger um cycles? Cuz if you think about the rotation that's going on in the legacy mark markets. You see um Russell outperforming small cap stocks are on fire lately. That's usually a late cycle thing. That's the final capital rotation. Okay, where else can we go? Let's pump small caps. Um and afterwards it's over. Doesn't mean the big cycle is over. Maybe it's just an intermediate

15:32 top. We see some form of correction and the cycle continues. But you have an opinion on the on the bigger cycle. Do you see like a major top maybe forming in the in the stock markets? sometime in the next three to six months and we actually really in the final stage also if you think about the classical Bitcoin altcoin rotation Ethereum is going to pump then we see the rotation um through the other L2s and finally like in the meme coins and so on and then cycle is over dogecoin is the last to pump and maybe we even get it would be so perfect if the dogecoin ETF is actually approved and then cycle is over yeah just because I'm on the ETF I can't comment on any of them individually, but I can tell you collectively there's a good chance that we get a bunch of ETFs also approved for altcoins

16:20 um in Q4. So that's also something to to think about. Um as far as the the broader cycle, absolutely people rotate from the perceived less risky to more risky because there's that people feel like there's more money to be made, right? You could say the same thing for like AI stocks and quantum computing and the more meme stuff, you know, the rocket labs and stuff like that. Um, so yeah, we're seeing that. Absolutely. We're seeing that right now. Is that the case actually? That's that's really like the final leg. Maybe we al we don't even got six more months. Maybe it's really like one final p push over the next couple of weeks. Maybe into September. Maybe we go into October, November and and that's it. or is it not

17:06 like a framework you you think in and you at the end of the day you look at the charts and hey we have to reassess once we get to October November let's see what the price action tells us and then we can um discuss if that's a cycle top or if we continue yeah so I think we have a rough road map based on what we've seen historically but at the same time for me technicals are the top of the stack you know so if if BTC looked better here. I'd say great. You know, if if BTC looked like gold does here, party on, right? What's September seasonality? But that's not what we're seeing. That's not what we're seeing. And even ETH is fairly overbought here. That doesn't mean it has to roll over. I think chop sideways for ETH makes

17:51 sense. I think some down for BTC makes sense. And then we'll see what happens in October. But um you know you can have these guidelines as far as what you expect to happen but you also need like a non-random systematic way of saying okay like this is this is really what's going on right for for me it's technicals for some people it's other stuff but um I think technicals really you just like in 2022 everybody thought it's recession is here it's over then we get the AI miracle stuff and the technicals were already rolling up like they had been curling up for a while and then we get this catalyst Meanwhile, everyone's saying, "Oh, everything's overvalued." This was in 22,23, and now we're still hearing that in 25 going to 26. Yeah. So, this stuff can keep going uh way longer than people think about, you

18:37 know? I guess that's the perfect um introduction um to to take a look at the charts. Um where do you think we should start? Should we actually um start with S&P 500? Should we go straight um to gold? would love to take a look at bonds, something you regularly talk about in your shows as well. Can we look at your what is your S&P 500 equivalent in Germany? It's it's the DAX. Um, if you ever look looked at it, I have not frequently. It has been in a crazy bull run as well. You wouldn't think if you look at the fundamentals um in in Germany, they are actually pretty bleak. Um um but the DEX has been performing is it uh XE TR is that

19:24 D exchange X. So this is the US version of the DAX which is slightly different than the German version. I think this is yeah that's the right one the correct air quotes version. Um, so across the board it worries me that we've bounced a lot and there's this there's this risk now that we could mean revert lower. Yep. And not even knowing what this is, you know, it wouldn't matter to me. It's just that's where we're at on SMH, which is the SE semiconductor ETF. On the Q's, on the S&P everything is sort of looks like this. It's like, okay, is this a head and shoulders up here? Is this a uh going to break a support at 23,300

20:11 whatever? It definitely looks like it wants to roll over. Um but still too early to tell, but wouldn't be a buyer up there. Yeah. So, my initial assessment would be uh you know, this is up a lot in a short period of time. doesn't mean it can't keep going. But all I see here is the potential for a head and shoulders, which is the bearish reversal chart pattern. The the level to pay attention to would be uh on this ETF 43. Yeah. You know, any any lower low past the uh July low, August July low, and I'd be concerned for additional downside. If we don't get that is cooked,

20:56 but uh you know the US US indices are the same. So the the expected move based on what we've seen historically for patterns that look like this is a bearish reversal. So you could take the fibs, which pretty standard I think charting software for anybody. Uh 1618 is a fib. 2 is not a fib. It's just the measured move of the depth of the pattern. And that gives you um this level, this zone where things could potentially go. Yep. So that's uh what percentage is that? 6 to 10. That's not a lot, but it's not that bad, you know. Yeah. Yeah. So we're not talking anything crazy here. Yep.

21:42 So definitely be careful of that on on your stuff. And it's the same across the board. All these markets have traded very similarly. Yep. So we can pull up uh a spy actually had a decent day today. Um markets were friendly across um the broad Nvidia earnings um tomorrow. Let's see how th um those goes. Um I think that would be a big influential influence on the markets at least short term. Yeah. No, I agree. Absolutely. And just visually like we're talking about rate of change. The rate of change since April has been dramatic, right? Not parabolic, but it's been pretty dramatic. That again isn't bearish outright. It's just saying, okay,

22:29 just the basic expectations here. Um maybe be careful, you know, because if if we do start to give some back, it could get uh pretty violent pretty quick. And I'm not one of these like doomer people who's like every time we go up, everything's bearish. It's just if we're if we're measuring uh an inverse version of the chart we just looked at, uh the inverted head and shoulders, that's the measurement. This is the target. So, we're pretty close to where you'd expect people to start to take profit, people to start to um take some off the table. What do you think about the the Russell? Um let's look at the IW M because that one still looks like it wants to go higher. Yeah, it does. And again, it's the same same idea. Inverted head and shoulders

23:16 breakout here in June. Um, I traded this briefly until I just pop on these fractals here. Um, again, it's just a trailing stop-loss system, but I hopped out in uh the end of July because we broke a lower low on the fractalss there. One way to get back in with this system is just to um wait for the higher high fractal. So theoretically I could have gotten back in it on the 12th, but I didn't. Uh I was trading ETH instead. Um so yeah, no, this looks good. It still has room to run just based on the pattern and on a relative value basis, it's also done quite well relative to tech lately. you then trade

24:02 mostly um the ETF or you look at um certain um stocks um of the in the small cap area and actually looks for for setup there or do you keep it simple and just trade the sector ETF? I don't dig too too deep into the small caps. Um I so besides the videos I do four times a week, I also do a stream once a week where I just talk to people about what they're trading. Yeah. And I always ask people, you know, for charts, for ideas. So, in that session, it gives me a lot of ammo to to go in places I would never go when looking for stuff. Y um lately it's been commodities. REMX is a rare earth ETF that I never would have thought about. Y that chart's done really well. I'm up

24:47 30% on that position. Um but so that's as far as I go. You know, I don't I don't dig too deeply into the Russell 2000. Yeah, altcoins different story. Makes sense. just uh also want to talk about a few charting um stock setups you currently like, but let's take a look at at bonds. Um is maybe TLT or some of the other um big US um bond ETFs? Yeah, sure. Um do you guys like trading TLT over there? Um not really. Um we are we are mostly making the case um the 6040 portfolio um is that and you shouldn't um waste too much time thinking about bonds even. So, for maybe a short-term trade um that starts to look um interesting, but still

25:32 at the end of the day, I think um stuff like gold is going to keep outperforming um TLT. So, no reason to to think too much about it. Um except if obviously we see um a breakdown in TLT or anything like that, that's probably not good for the financial system in in general or for the stability of the system. That's why I'm mostly thinking about bonds um out of that lens. Yeah. So on the long end, I absolutely agree with you. These look atrocious. Expectations for issuance is atrocious. Expectations for demand is atrocious. Why would you expect these to do well? It it doesn't make any sense to me. Um now TA could could trump that, right? Uh but TA is also on your side saying we're

26:20 making lower lows continuously. We haven't made a higher high since uh September 2024 and that was brief. It got smacked down. This is not, you know, this could be the stone cold low today, but it's also not some place I would ever touch from a uh entry perspective. It just looks awful. Just just looks really really bad. Now, if we contrast that with SHY, which is the one to threeyear US uh Treasury ETF, this actually bought some this week. Uh it is consolidating. It is holding levels. It has been basing since 2022. It is making higher highs. You know, this is what you want to see out of TLT from a technical perspective. You're not you're not seeing that, so why bother, right? Like there's lots of

27:06 things you could do with your money and I don't see why you'd want to sit in TLT to any degree. Yeah, definitely. And for for the viewers out there just um to give them an understanding that just proved the point that the Fed is mostly controlling the um short end um of the curve but not the long end and TLT there's 20 30 year plus um duration in there while here's one to three years and probably as if it keeps going up that's going to tell us there are more rate cuts um coming and therefore um it's maybe an interesting place to at least um park some capital um short-term in in those um yeah short-term treasury um ETFs. Same in in Europe. Do you have an opinion on the dollar um right now? I mean it it keeps

27:52 um rolling over. It keeps um looking weak even though um you're a guy who also looks at uh COD um data and we saw some yeah historic um high short positioning tough word for German um in the in the dollar. Um but but it's it we don't see any counter trend rallies at least none that are are sticking. What's your outlook at least for the rest of the year for the dollar? Does it keep going lower? Yeah, I'll just back up and say one way to think about trading too is like okay I have this hypothesis. I want to express this idea based on XYZ information. What what does the lay of the land look like? How can I express that idea? Right? Like what are the instruments available? And then to me the overlay is of course technicals too. like it has to has to look good on technicals. So, not

28:39 only does this look on good on technicals, but it also sort of lines up with rate expectations as you say with um the short end, the shorter end rather than the longer end. Um DXY, let's actually just pull it up. I have it here. DXY, which is the US dollar index. Um, it uh hasn't made lower lows significantly lately. We haven't talked about the cloud yet, but let's talk about Sure. Sure. So, all you need here's what you need to know about the cloud. Uh, it's a system of dynamic support and resistance. Good things happen above the cloud. Bad things happen below, aka

29:24 bullish above, bearish below. Besides the cloud, besides those colored blobs you're looking at, there's also essentially a moving average system. The the red and the blue, the tenkin and the keyun, which I always butcher the pronunciation, the TK lines. It's basically a series of checks and balances. So, if you're bullish, you want a bullish MA cross on the TK lines. You want a bullish cloud. You want price above cloud. If you're bearish, you want a bearish TK cross, price below cloud, bearish cloud. So, when you've got a mix of signals here, this tends to hint at a transition period, a neutrality period over a continuation period. Yep. So, that's the clouds read here. This

30:09 could be a reversal. It is neutral. It's it's not really a setup worth trading. Now, if we contrast that with like what happened, not just because we're looking at it because it's history, but the breakouts here above or below the cloud, that's always what I'm hunting for on a setup perspective. You want to see this before it happens so that you can take action as it happens. But, um, ever since we broke down below the cloud here in March 2025, we've failed to break back above the cloud. So that's really helped risk assets move higher and it also helped gold um to move higher obviously and if we are bullish on gold obviously the correlation doesn't work as good as it

30:56 used to be. So maybe um dollar and gold can move up together but historically at least um usually um if dollar went up gold went down and vice versa. Um, also Euro obviously the main counterpart of the dollar still looks somewhat bullish but um at least is still above the cloud. So good things happening above the cloud and also um perfect example um um where you see the breakout about the red cloud and it was also a good signal um to actually go long the euro against the dollar. Yeah. So, it's it's tough because people they tend to want to trade something every day and like look for something

31:42 all the time when the reality is most of what I do is just waiting, you know, waiting and finding stuff to happen. It's not like, oh, let's do this, let's do that. It's just waiting, waiting, waiting until your system tells you it's go time. It's not like, oh, let's bet on the euro today because I've want to, right? Like, it has nothing to do with that. Yeah. Um, in gold, I think this is like the best looking chart in the market. I'm not even a gold bug, okay? I'm like I'm not that type of person who's always looking to be low on gold. It's just the technicals look phenomenal. And it's based on everyone being a cloud expert now. You know, we're above the cloud. We have a bullish TK cross. This is a TK crisscross recross, which is a turbo

32:27 bullish signal. Yep. Um, and on top of that, you've got a chart pattern here, ascending triangle. Yeah. Andor, uh, penant. Um, all this stuff just looks extremely bullish to me. What would be your target once we actually break out to the upside? Yeah. Yeah. So on GLD just measuring the depth of the pattern um 3 330 340 which admittedly like isn't isn't a crazy move for gold. 5 to 8% from here. Nothing says it can't keep going and it certainly you know we can we can test this just on on the recent stuff. The previous consolidation breakout 273 to

33:13 280 was the expected move. went way past that. And even if we go on like the weekly and we just look at this down here, which was a huge inverted head and shoulders multi-year consolidation, this thing back here. Yeah, that that measured move on GLD was only 227 to 250 and it went way past that. You know, it consolidated at some of those levels for a period of time, but that was a beautiful consolidation down there. Um, and the bigger the base, the higher end space. Exactly. And again, like if you're a gold bug looking to trade gold every day or if you trade oil or some other commodity, it's like for a long time, there really wasn't a trade here, you know, at least to me as a momentum

33:58 breakout guy. Um, so you just don't do it, right? You trade something else and you just you set some alerts and you you know exactly what you're looking for and when it happens, you're ready to go. But until that day, then you just did do something else. And that's where we're at with with BTC here as well. What actually is your uh So for all that don't know, GLD is like the biggest gold ETF um in the world and um mostly traded in the US. Um but um it it basically is gold, but what would you be your invalidation for your current um also? Um let's go quickly back to to gold, please. Um just your your invalidation um for for the trade. Um so you you just mentioned I think you bought more GLD today. Um what is your

34:44 invalidation for the trade when do where would you get out if the trade doesn't work out as expected? Yeah. So, this is a good transition for BTC because unlike BTC, gold is currently above the cloud, holding above the cloud, has roughly held above the cloud, you know, most of the time here. Um whereas BTC is closing in the cloud which is another reason why I closed out of that trade uh or have I've really been out of BTC in a big way since um the beginning of this month for the same reasons that I talked about with XLU with the trailing stop losses on the Williams fractals which we can look at but um uh so the invalidation here is just simple. It's always simple. You never want to make lower lows. So in this case it's 305. Anything below 305 on a daily close would be an invalidation at this point. And another

35:31 thing I'll say about chart patterns, specifically triangles, you don't want them to go all the way to the end. You don't you don't want to Let me just pull up an example because it's easier. Um, so on the GLD case, it's got some room to run on that triangle. Yeah. If we go to XLE, which is an energy ETF, this is a great example of a a beautiful pattern that went all the way to the tip of the triangle and didn't go anywhere. Yep. And you see this pretty frequently where triangles typically break when 3/4 complete or or more. You know, it's about at that point. Yep. And you can see here even on XLE like roughly it tried to break out at about 3/4 and it just got stuck. So, that's

36:18 another thing to watch for gold here. If if it takes gold the rest of the year to do nothing, then that's a really bad sign. Uh, but as we stand here today, that I I think it's a great trade. Let's before we go to Bitcoin, let's quickly look at at silver and maybe gold miners because if you look for more juice, if you're disappointed, oh, gold only a 7 to 8% move. If that happens, miners should go parabolic. Um, so also silver I think has a lot of catch-up potential. Um, but what's your current take on on silver? Silver's always been difficult because it's just so volatile up and down. I don't have a great read here other than it just it looks like it wants to go higher. Y I guess we could look at the the silver

37:05 gold ratio maybe and try to find something there, but um I don't know. Just doesn't really look too too inspiring to me. Yep. You know, it's just uh it just looks like noise. I don't see anything special about it. Um I don't know. It it just it's done it's done nothing for a long time and it's obviously gaining lately. Y but um yeah, I don't have a I don't have a great read on silver. Fair enough. It's going to go higher hopefully. If your if your gold read is is is right, I think we're going to see $50 silver um this year. Um but maybe what about um GDX as a proxy for um gold miners? Sure. Uh yeah, so gold miners

37:50 going parabolic. Gold miners um there's been a few of these charts. Schwab, the exchange, we'll take a look at that in a second, has a similar pattern. I'm big on patterns. I'm big on trend. Y um it had this descending neckline inverted head and shoulders thing GDX did for a couple years here. You can see that and after the breakout it's just been kind of kind of lights out. Um one thing I'll say about these ETFs as well individually if you look at the components this is WPM. This is a precious metal gold and silver miner. Yep. U you know you might not love the the ETF but if you look in the holdings there might be something you love a lot more. Yep. It could expose you to idiosyncratic risk or you know

38:35 individual risk for the company but this chart had you been paying attention to it to me set up way cleaner than um GDX did. Yep. So there then they're also a minor you know um just as one example definitely. Um where should we go next? Should we go should we look at a few um other stock example? GDX chart reminds me of Rivian, one of the charts um or one of the stocks you have been talking a lot about lately and it's still grinding um and grinding and chopping. But maybe eventually if we see some form of meltup in small caps, even Rivian um is going to break out. It's still possible. Um I would say it's it's not over yet. No. So I agree. It's it's um it's making

39:23 higher lows, right? We'll take it. It's not quite making higher highs yet. Um I like ads at 15. I like ads at 16 as it starts to make higher highs. I I love any chart that not just is going down but has started to base. Yeah. You know, like we can we can take the TLT example on the other side of the coin where that thing looks like it's just going nowhere to me. Now, you could argue Rivian's the same, but it is making higher lows. It's it's a hotter sector than long bonds, you know, so it's got that going for it. And if we look at some of these others, uh NEO is another one. This thing again, now that you're everybody's a cloud expert, NEO has been down only since 2021 and is finally breaking out

40:09 of the cloud. It's breaking out of this channel. So, China is a big company for everyone who who doesn't heard of um NEO and has been in a brutal downtrend um for years now, but it's coming to life. So, you got a position currently in NEO or do you look for an entry there? I don't have a position in NEO currently. I should um I I just feel like I'm I'm in Rivian so much sector sector-wise. I don't want to be too too concentrated, but um I'm also in Tesla a little bit. I can't stand Musk or the company, just for the record, but the technicals look really good. Yeah, I think it's the best from a technical standpoint. I think it's the most bullish um setup in the big um cap tech stocks right now in the US.

40:56 Um maybe let's look quickly at Tesla and at maybe Kb for for China and then we we going to switch to to Bitcoin. Sure. Sure. One last thing I'll say about uh something like NEO, you know, if we're looking at the euro and the dollar and saying, "Okay, this is where you want an entry, right? That's why I like this chart so much because it's literally the breakout is here. It's it just happened the other day, right? Um and it's making a higher high." So, so, so if you and right now looking at new then just um quickly go back please um if you got don't have a position right now what would be um your your system or your your like your your method to actually get an entry um into NEO if you missed the initial move.

41:42 Yeah, I think one thing you can always do is just dollar cost average daily or weekly and say, "Okay, you know, I like I like a little more, I like a little more, and you you have some some limit for yourself." And maybe the other 50% you just save for a down day or you say for a breakout period, right? You you set some rules, some ground rules. Um because there's a lot of charts, RMX, we'll just pull up real quick. Same deal. this thing broke out and it's kind of just been up only for a long long time, but it did give you a good pullback entry uh for a couple couple days, right? So, so if you're confident on the breakout and you think there's still plenty of room to run and the riskreward is appropriate, you want to be adding on down days, right? That's what you want.

42:27 You definitely want that. Yeah. Um so yeah, Tesla U Tesla it's breaking up. It is similar to um I don't know. I guess any any chart pattern again. It's it's been a choppy mess. It's gone nowhere for a couple months. Broke out, gave it all back, broke up again. It's a new higher high. I don't know. I I like it. It I like the measured move here. just the depth of the pattern measured higher. I like it on a relative value basis compared to the rest of the Mag 7. You know, the the rest of the Mag 7 have done really really well whereas Tesla hasn't done anything. So, just on a relative value basis, um I like where this sits and

43:13 historically it's also important to just take note like has this thing ever traded on technicals? And I think that answer is definitely yes. Um, so that's going to be on an individual basis, but that's also important. You know, if we're looking at something like Coco or something that's been ranging for 30 years, right? Like maybe we take those breakouts a little less seriously. But, uh, where something has breakout potential and momentum historically like crypto, Bitcoin, you know, markets have memory and they know like this thing can run. So, okay, let's take a shot, right? But if you if you take the Tesla chart, we actually have to be bullish for September. Um, don't we? because I don't see Tesla going to 400 plus um if the whole market rolls over. So maybe it's September after all.

44:00 Uh yeah, you know, it's a way of hedging myself against myself by saying uh you know, seasonality is what it is, but there may be some outperformers just based on the technicals. I don't know. Yeah, but I agree like this but this still looks good. Still looks really really good. Another thing that that looks really good is Chinese stocks. You mentioned it in the intro. Um KAB as one of the um big ETFs for for Chinese um exposure. It's trying to break out as well has been consolidating or basing for years now. And if those bases breaks, we just saw it in gold. If those break basis breaks to the upside or even to the downside, usually big moves um follow. Yeah, this thing has had all sorts of

44:46 attempts at breaking higher, you know. It had like like pseudo inverted head and shoulders attempts over and over. Had another one here where it like tried and whatever this is, I don't even know. But the level is above 35 to me it looks good enough. And if we look at um CQQ is another one, Chinese tech, same story. you know, it's it's been a mess. It's been a slog for years, but it looks really good here. And if we just on a relative value basis compare that to the NASDAQ, it also looks to me like on a relative value basis, it's it's potentially go time. You know, might be a little early, but

45:32 potentially go time relative to NASDAQ. Definitely. And it also shows there's always an opportunity in the market even. So um big tech or the US markets might roll over or at least consolidate for the next couple of weeks or months. Um you got Chinese stocks who who have been basing for for months and years now and are probably um that would be just a logical um capital rotation. Um especially if you get some sort of economic deal between the US and and China. I think then we have um all the narratives um to send to send all those stocks um higher. Most people still hate China stocks, think they are uninvestable and the price action is telling a different story and it's really giving you a signal. There's an opportunity in China right now at least

46:18 for a trade short to midterm. We don't talk about um holding those ETFs for years and years. Um but it's it's it's clear stay that there's a very good um technical um setup. Yeah, especially at a time like you said where like the leaders of the world are slowing down. So again, this is like like you said, capital rotation 101. Uh where else can we go for a trade here? And uh these these charts look really really good. Yeah, I'm not even a China fan. Okay. Right. But it has nothing to do with that. It just has to do with this chart looks good. Period. Definitely. So let's talk about Bitcoin. You think the cycle isn't over yet? But also, you are not too optimistic at

47:03 least for the next couple of days um or or weeks. What's your current assessment of the Bitcoin cycle? I mean, if you look at the weekly and monthly chart, it's still a clear uptrend. We are making um higher highs and um higher lows. So, nothing to worry about. But yeah, if we go to the weekly this cycle, we're still above the weekly cloud. We're still above the TK lines. the deepest I' I don't want to go to 90, but if based on the weekly that that's one level we could tap just like we did in July 2024 and April 2025 and we'd still be bullish, right? Like that's just how much we've bounced since April. Um that's the weekly and you can again the

47:50 same thing with the daily time frame the weekly breakout we had in u December January 2023 2024 this is the stuff you always want to be paying attention um on this indicator specifically is where is this breaking out from the cloud those are huge levels most of the time um going to the daily this is what I use time frame you know just on like day-to-day decisions not necessarily cycle, but unlike uh the GLD, I'll just I'll use the correct settings. I have separate settings for crypto versus legacy, but um unlike the GLD chart where we're just like cruising above the cloud, this is starting to droop into the cloud. So,

48:35 that is a warning sign that we're moving from a bullish trend to a neutral, softening, potentially bearish, but uh it's not bullish. So that's one one reason to be very careful here on BTC. And this could be wrong, right? But it's saying what do I know historically when I see this on anything, not just Bitcoin. It's be careful because this could roll over in a big way. What would make you um bullish again? So I think you mentioned 118,000 as your your key level. If Bitcoin gets over that in September, we are back on track. Because if you if you think about the four-year cycle, so the four-ear cycle projects uh a top somewhere end of

49:22 October, November time frame. If we go down to 90K first, I don't think we have enough time to to get up to 130, 140, 150. So it um if we get a big draw down now, the cycle is definitely different. um because maybe we extend the cycle into 2026. Obviously, that can always um happen, but a draw down to to 90 first I probably takes we don't see do you think or let me frame it differently. Do you think um if we go down to 90, we see another all-time high this year or does it take to at least Q1 2026? I think it's going to be tough. I'm I'm with you. it's going to be tough to recover at this point in the cycle because it's so late for the exact same

50:07 reasons you're talking about. Everybody's thinking that. They're thinking, "Okay, like how much more do we realistically have, right, timewise?" And so everybody's there 100%. And if we start rolling over deep deep below the cloud here, that's concerning. If we start rolling over below the 20week moving average, which is currently at 107, uh that's concerning. So we don't want to see we don't want to spend a lot of time below the 20we. We don't want to spend a lot of time below the daily cloud. And that's well above 90. The other thing here this this draw down indicator I have at the bottom. Um our draw downs haven't been too too deep this cycle like 30%. Okay. For anything generally that's pretty deep. But y for cycles it's in Bitcoin that hasn't

50:52 been too deep. But that's something else to watch. Like you know by that time it's too late. But if we start to experience a bigger draw down than we've experienced the rest of the cycle, then I think that's pretty easy to call it and say, "All right, you know, it's going to be very hard to recover past uh past a 30% draw down, which would be about 88 and we get to like 86 87 and um it's probably lights out. I think you start to get worried like I said in the open come October if if we don't start to recover based on seasonality in October then we're going to be in some trouble for sure. Definitely. I mean a micro strategy doesn't look too too good either or that's probably an understatement that actually micro strategy chart looks um

51:38 horrible um in comparison um to to Bitcoin. I think there's still hope at least as long as we above like 18 110 I think we still can recover um from here. So it's it's not um over yet and that's what I um told like my followers um over the past um couple of weeks. Hey, let's see if we get below 10 108 then we start to worry um as long as we above it there's still a chance we we just move um up from here. But Ethereum is a different story. um Ethereum chart um definitely looks in comparison to Bitcoin and it it hurts as a as a Bitcoin maximalist at least at heart. It it hurts to say that but it it definitely

52:24 looks um better and actually serum looks like a chart. I wouldn't buy it right now obviously even so I think we could have one move higher but if we see a larger correction Ethereum it still has a very bullish market structure so you would actually expect um to be a very good buying opportunity if we see some form of larger correction in Ethereum yeah I'm not going to disagree it looks much better than BTC here but it looked much worse than BTC for years years and years, right? So, just the pendulum is swinging towards ETH. They've got uh we've got this guy on Hyperlid selling 30,000 BTC, exchanging it for ETH. He's got a bunch more BTC potentially that

53:10 he's going to be exchanging. We'll see. That's not helping us here. We've got Tom Lee saying he's buying based on the uh the cloud. He's literally, you know, he's retweeting these tweets about the cloud. So, it's funny. Um Tom Lee's the BMR. Yeah. digital asset treasury company. Yeah. Um and uh you know he's pointing out certain levels based on the cloud. So they've been buying that pretty hard I think and that's helping here. Um it's just I I don't I don't see the riskreward immediately to be in ETH like you said. Uh it's run up a lot super quick. That doesn't mean it can't keep going. It's just I think there's better trades to be had elsewhere. That's all.

53:56 So any opinion on Tom Lee's company? Are you a buyer of um I think ticker is B MNR? Yeah, for these unfortunately for these unfortunately you have to go at least for me I have to go way down to like the 30 minute and see okay is there anything going on here worth doing? Y again because everybody's a cloud expert now we're below the cloud here on the 30 minute. So if if this is bullish, it should be pretty easy to get above. And so that hasn't happened since uh August 6th and ETH has done reasonably well in that period of time, you know. So I don't know this that's one way to look at it. We can also just look at this against ETH too and see

54:43 how does this look. Uh lately not so good, you know. So it's the same thing with um MSDR and and BTC. Yep. Don't be afraid to to look at the relative value pairs. I you know the story is the story, the person is the person, but ultimately if you're a technical person, what does the technicals suggest here? And definitely and I want to see see the same thing I want to see anywhere else which is a higher high which we haven't seen uh you know since since August. So that's that, right? Like you can be you can be bullish all you want, but um this looks not great at the moment. Definitely. And obviously it can change, but I mean um with your um setup, it's it's pretty clear where would you where you want to get involved and as long as

55:29 we are beneath um the cloud um you're not interested in it. And um Micro Strategy, yeah, compared to Bitcoin doesn't look too good um either. Yeah, interestingly, it's it's bounced over the past couple days, it's it's underperformed to the downside. It's still been down, but it's been down less than BTC has. Um which is giving it this this move higher. it still has done nothing since October on a relative basis and it doesn't exactly look like a resounding uh you know something that I'd want to touch. It's just a giant giant range here but at least um it it did bounce where it's supposed to bounce and there's hope. So there's hope for Bitcoin and also for Micro Strategy even though I don't expect another all-time high for Micro

56:17 Strategy um in this cycle um for for Bitcoin to make another all-time high. We definitely need micro strategy to stay above um 350 in my opinion. Um otherwise I don't see any world where mic Bitcoin goes to yeah 150 and Micro Strategy is sub 300. Uh doesn't make any sense. Yeah, this chart if we take off the pitchfork uh you know it had a good setup. It was a multi-month pattern that a base potentially it tried to break out and then just gave it all back. So, okay, you know, we can have an idea and a hope and a dream, but reality is this on trend looks awful, you know. So, for BTC, it's 118. Anything above

57:03 118 I love. Uh for MSTR it would be like 380. Yep. Ultimately 420. Yeah, definitely. But here, why? You know, why? Yeah. Um I I 100% um agree. Um I hope that we see at least a bounce here going into September. That probably would um be a very good sign also for Bitcoin, but um I don't think Micro Strategy is um outperforming for the rest of the cycle. Yeah. One last thing I'll I'll say um about MSTR, you know, it's like if if you're in these momentum plays, no matter what it is, do you really want to be trading 340 to 380? No. Yeah, like I don't uh you really want to be

57:50 trading 380 to 700 or 800, right? Like that's what that's about. It's not picking this perfect bottom level and like hoping, right? It's like show me the momentum, show me the breakout and I'm ready to go. But until then, it just doesn't doesn't really make sense to me. 100% agree. Before we wrap up here, one final setup. Any chart we didn't mention where you are super bullish on currently. Can be anything. Can be a commodity, can be a uranium stock. Um, whatever it is, can be a meme coin. Um, it's it's funny because, uh, we're talking about miners, we're talking about commodities a little bit. Um, I think uranium miners looks really good here. URNM, y is is the ETF. Um, this to me looks like

58:35 a massive inverted head and shoulders. Uranium also looks good here. Um, I mention, are you already in the trade or you're watching for an entry? I I did I buy this today? I don't think I bought this today, but um I I I think it looks great. Yeah, I think it looks really really good. Um URRA is a uranium ETF. This one has a little in uh head and shoulders risk up here, but I think it still looks really good. It's got this uh I hate this pattern. This is an expanding broadening wedge. It's uh terrible to trade because you think it's the breakout and then then it just gives it all back. And anyway, um I still think this has room to run. I think it has a good story behind it with the AI data center stuff.

59:21 Y to just contrast with coin. Coin has a similar um like megaphone thing that just it's terrible to trade this um from my experience. Y um one other I'll just mention Roku. This chart is a what what is it like a uh I have one in my house. It's like a television. It's like Netflix kind of kind of right. Um this has had a base since 2022. It is an ascending triangle. It has a decent breakout potential. Yeah. It's also uh about to like three quarters complete on the pattern. So that you know it's it's paid its dues effectively

1:00:07 uh on the pattern front. And uh one other one real quick. Let me just pull it up here. I'm trying to find it. Um figs. How do how did I not mention Figs? Figs is another one. This is like the Rivian idea. Just a this is a clothing company. Yeah. I mean it it looks um it looks like the Rivian chart basically. Um just it already made the breakout. Yeah. Uh, Pelaton, Roku, K Webb, Tesla, Regetti, GLD, added to that. RMX we talked about. Yeah, that's pretty much it. Um, Pelaton, again, a lot of these like COVID darling companies that have um based, you know, Pelaton's a spiking company. It's actually big in Germany,

1:00:52 isn't it? Um, not sure about that. I'm I think during COVID um it got some traction, but it it mostly died down um afterwards. Okay, but at least the chart is trying to recover. I just recently talked to somebody else about it. Um, it looks pretty decent. I have no idea about the fundamentals um, currently, but looks like they're recovering at least on Yeah, I only say it's big in Germany. I only I only say it's big in Germany because they have a lot of classes in German in the German language. But interesting. Didn't know about that. Anyway, uh, yeah, fundamentals are probably atrocious, right? Who knows? the technicals here. It looks like it's trying to set up for an inverted head and shoulders here. So, we'll see. But,

1:01:39 you know, so the the the message, the takeaway is there's lots of trades elsewhere that are not just uh BTC or the SPY or SMH. The last one I'll I'll share is SMH. This scares me a lot because if if this is remotely bearish and again there's a head and shoulders risk up here. If this breaks down that means Nvidia breaks down that means S&P the Q's the world shuts down right like it's it's not good if if SMH breaks down from a sentiment perspective. So definitely one to keep an eye on. We might get the answer later this week. Um I think a lot of going to depend on Nvia earnings. Um and hopefully it's it's going to um like invalidate um the

1:02:26 pattern you drew up there. Um and Nvidia earnings keep crushing, keep going higher, then we are bullish into September. Otherwise, I think if SMH breaks down, most likely all bets off and you have to be sidelined or shorting the market um for the next couple of weeks. I think again if if such a leader um doesn't perform um I I don't see anything else doing really really well except maybe gold obviously and um some other commodities that's a different story. Yeah, that's not that's not like a bearish call on SMH or Nvidia. It's just like I'm paying attention to this. If it if it doesn't work out for whatever reason um you know that's not a good sign. And obviously um we have a clear level.

1:03:11 As long as we stay above it, hey, you're still good. Yeah. And if we are Exactly. breaking down, well, we have to reassess. Josh, thank you very much um for your time. Where should we send people? Where can people um learn more about you? Obviously, you're doing lot of YouTube videos. So, about most of the charts we just looked at or we discussed in the past hour, you're mostly doing also in your live streams. So, if people want to get updates, I think your YouTube channel is definitely um the way to go. link down in the show notes. Where else can people learn more about you? Yeah, YouTube is great. Come say hi on the streams if uh the timing is right or on the in the comment section, you know, let me know. I love looking at any chart talking about anything. Uh the second place would be Twitter, Carpum. And that

1:03:58 he'll put that in the show notes for me, I think, too. But that's Latin for sees the night for those wondering. Yeah. Um perfect ending, Josh. Thank you for your um time. Um, we might do that again later this year. Depends on the Bitcoin cycle. Um, I think if we go back to 90K, I definitely have to bring you on again. And if we go to to 150K, um, we might um, do a cycle ending um, show. Josh, thanks again. That'd be great. Take care. Thank you. Take care.