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0:00 Good afternoon. Welcome to Option Standards Tuesday, March 17th, 2026. Happy St. Patty's Day, you guys. Uh hope everybody has a great um time. Uh maybe cheersing. Um we're going to go through S&P 500. This is going to be short and sweet. Uh S&P and the VIX uh on the daily and the 65. So, um not a whole lot's changed. We did get the move, the followthrough that we're looking for. And uh so now I'm starting to turn that chip back around to the downside. Now, can we go higher? Absolutely. I'm still expecting a move to um just below 6,800 or could spike through this um this whole zone here. Uh one more move up
0:49 there. Absolutely could. Um and I'll show you that on the lower time frame what I'll be looking for. Um but so we have we have some calls in place and now we're swinging short. So virtually those calls turn into hedges uh at this point if price goes a little bit higher. Okay. And we all know that um this level down here is our target area 6550 on S&P. And um let's see here. So, if you're new, I have these two levels on here, and they're super important. Okay, your weekly 20 SMA, that's at 6838.
1:35 All right, that's where I think we'll eventually get to after another spike lower, and that will be called the kiss of death, and you'll start seeing that in the headlines and all that good stuff. The um second one here is the monthly 8 EMA. That's our momentum indicator. And go back to the weekly video if you want to uh check that out. And that is um where price held this time on the monthly. So we know that this is an important level here. And I doubt price will stay this low for long. As a matter of fact, I do expect it to regain that 8 MA um after a fall here. Okay, so we're doing this intraday about um it's uh 1:30 p.m. Eastern Standard
2:22 Time. If you want to get these videos intraday, consider becoming a YouTube supporter. It's $3 a month and it comes with the Discord Cheddar data um those dark prints that gave us that uh the bottom here. That was fantastic. And then one of our cheddar flow um options flow, we took some calls off there and yeah, so come join us. And then the upper level uh is $10 a month where we make our individual ETF and stock analysis. Today we did uh TLT by request. Want to check that out and uh a game plan for um you know what I was talking about here about the price possibly going up here and down there and how we're going to play it. So okay um so let's check out some of these indicators. And by the way, this is the
3:08 measured move from the consolidation area up here. I just took the width of the range and uh placed it at the Sorry about that. And then placed it at the measured move from the breakdown area. And we're not quite there yet. That should get us through the gap area and probably a little bit lower. So, we have our trend. Trend is down. Simple as that. Our moving averages, here's where we're pausing today. and the NDX is at the 20 simple moving a average um it rejected off of. And so we're going to keep an eye on this 20 simple moving average as well. All right. So if if things get uh wonky on the uh FOMC, you know, things can spike and I I think we'll get a
3:53 reversal off the 20 if that happens. It doesn't have to. We could be done with this bounce here. Um I was suspecting that price would go higher into FOMC and so that's why I thought that uh we might actually get this this move right before FOMC and then we can fall but we'll see if price holds up here and uh after 2 p.m. when the um announcement happens in a 230 conference, then you know things love to give you that first move and it could just look so bullish and then you get a huge wick and a reversal. As a matter of fact, if we're higher into FOMC, I think that is much more bearish and I think we uh have a fall that could
4:39 happen um the next day or two. That would be two 300 uh points depending on where it drops from. Okay. Um and our what if you're a member, you know where our window um our cycle low window ends. So that's how fast price could move. And here's our oscillator. I'm going to call it oscillator coming back into this and that's what we were talking about yesterday as we're so extreme here on this bounce. We got back into this uh out of the extreme area and this next move lower. I suspect that we'll get a higher low and mark a bottom temporarily for rip your face off rally
5:25 demark. We have a three count. Nothing. No setup yet. Here's your RSI. Came out of that oversold territory now bouncing. Um that gives us room to head back lower. Do we get a lower low or we get a higher low? Doesn't really matter. If we get that higher low with price falling, um I would love to see that positive divergence. That would give us a um a nice little picture there. So, here's our little downtrend. Here's the caveat. Did we actually make a low? So, stochastic. It's starting to curl up. Now, what could happen? There's two things. Obviously, we can continue to cycle higher. If we have price action fall lower, you
6:12 still could cycle higher and have a positive divergence or you could actually get deeper into the boundary area. This is, you know, it definitely just tapped on it, but it can go definitely deeper. We're still in a bearish posture. We have the um no crossover here. Histograms are getting thinner just because we're getting the bounce of the market. Okay? So that nothing goes in a straight line. It's oscillating lower. I I do believe, by the way, if we um hit our targets and we start heading to the upside, we will get a bull cross, but we'll remain in bare territory underneath the zero line. Just want to make that clear. Here's your Ballinger band. You got that oversold situation pushing the Ballinger band. You got the
6:58 buy signal. Also, we had tons of dark bullps under here. That was fantastic. and Elliot Oscillator. All right, just heading lower. You know, we kept this here just for um that's just a placeholder right now because when we break down lower, we want to see if we can get a positive divergence there. Okay, let's go to the VIX. All right, so the VIX is falling. It's already hit the target that I was looking for. And so, um, with that said, you know, a couple things could happen. So, we're at the we're at the point where we talked about yesterday. We had the break the breakout area. We're back
7:43 testing that. We're at support right now, but I said we'll go a little bit lower, likely hit to hit that uh 20 trend indicator. I don't think it'll go any lower at this point. All right. So, uh, the trend is up and it's holding it. Now, if price wants to go get that 6,800 area, then we're clearly rejecting and going uh in this channel here, rejecting off top of the channel and we're going back to the bottom of the range. That would get us to that 6,800 area with which would be an objective short and also the 20 simple moving average on S&P. And we have the 50 moving average at uh the channel bottom here. So, that would not be a surprise if that were to happen tomorrow. going into FOMC and you get this move lower. Um, but also we
8:32 just have to know that this we're just back testing. We're holding on to this area and that could be bearish in itself. Um, if we start to rise from this point. Okay, as for our cycles, we're going to look for a VIX cycle low coming up, a minor low on the 23rd. And so we'll pay attention to what the VIX and what price is doing after FOMC and then we'll have more of a clear vision of how that low should look. Okay. So like I said I our windows getting closed here. Uh we're running out of time for a low in the market. So, um, if we do get this nice big VIX
9:17 spike, I do believe that we'll fail back into here and, uh, wherever that, um, maybe back to the 50 all the way down during this, uh, um, next week. Actually, this is the 23rd. That would be Monday, but it's a window, so it could be all the way out to um, you know, past there. As a matter of fact, we could look at it in a couple different ways. You could, if this window is, you know, let's say three or four days wide, um, we could look at this week, uh, Friday Thursday Wednesday as being a window for a low. That's just how it works. But on the same note, if we do get a spike, we could get a low
10:03 going into Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, for example, of next week. All right? So, the window's wide. Um, so we'll we'll just have to really pay attention. Right now, we don't have a a real clear path for this VIX yet until FOMC uh gives us um more information. All right. But certainly a a place to if you're if you're long here, it just makes sense to um add put protection. Okay. And then look for a setup. If you if you have um you know a bunch of calls on, add some put protection. And if you're you're a bear, you know the FOMC could crush this lower. So have some call protection. It's just it goes both ways.
10:50 All right, let's go to we'll go to SPY this time on the 65. All right, we've left off here. So, we had our retracement so far. We're not looking at this yet. Let's get this out of here. So, right now, we're just working on this last leg here. Now, they're very corrective moves, but that's part of a leading diagonal. That's what I think it is. And we've retraced this portion of the move to the 50%. Didn't quite make it to the 60%. On NDX, we made it to the 60%. Okay. Um, can we break down directly
11:36 from here with the 8 EMA and the daily and and this 50%. Absolutely. That can be it. It can be done. And then we can uh change our projections here to actually not change but add on our projections from so I'm looking at this as being an ABC leg down. So, if our egg a leg a leg is this length and then we do um a point of where the top might be. If it goes higher, we'll adjust it. But here's your your B or your Cwave um compared to your A wave. Okay, this is the Awave. This is the where we made that back test and a new low. Now, we're
12:22 getting the Bwave and we're looking for a C-wave. Now, your 100% is right here at 652. Okay? And you can clean this up. We're looking for everything after one uh 100% and on to our extensions. And um very typical would be this 123.6. Okay. And you know, it can go further than that, but uh and looks like it's a little stretched down there. All right. All right. And then your 138 which starts to line then you have a confluence um from this uh entire move here um for the um A equals C. There's something else going on here. I'm not going to get into it. But that's uh something that's uh
13:09 the third leg. No, we're not doing the ABC. Sorry about that. I'm trying to think of where I what I did with this one. This was uh the wave three. Okay. and then your extensions off of the wave three uh from the wave four. All right, hope that makes sense uh where the top of wave four is right there. So, you don't know all the Elliot waves. You got to uh check that out in the membership, but here's our extensions and they you get a confluence down here of the 382 and the uh 20 uh 23.6 down at 644. I don't know if price will make it down there. We'll be looking to um surely exit exit out of our puts at the um 650 area for sure if
13:55 we make it down there and then um but probably scale out of it a little bit earlier than there and uh start looking for longs at that point. Okay, so let's move in to some of these trend indicator trend is starting to turn a little bit. Now, this is, in my opinion, this is still such a consolidating type move. Um, you know, it hasn't stretched out yet and the trend is has been down, but you see how choppy it gets. So, you have to stick to those daily time frames. So, it was so difficult to see what the heck was going on. And while you're trying to figure it out, you just stick to that 8 EMA and that 20 simple moving average on the daily and call it a day at that
14:42 point. But, you see how choppy this move has been. moving averages. We're fighting with the 50 right now. We're getting above on this bounce for the uh the 8 EMA and the 20. So, just really in a neutral stance here, pinching between moving averages. All right. And we we already had that do overbought condition on this um bounce today and that's why we're retreating off of it at least consolidating uh for the next move which could go to 675ish wants to just a little bit higher and then at that point we'd look for negative divergence. Right. So stochastic is um a headwind on this bounce. So it's uh consolidating
15:30 right now. We'll see if that curls back up to see if it we can get just a little bit higher. Other than that, we'll look for the rollover in the MACD V. And you see they're going against each other. This one's heading down. This one's heading up. Uh so that's why we're getting the chop. Hey. Um Oops. Here's the demark. No setup here. We had that nine count that gave us an exhaustion cell. just spiked a little bit lower and that was a good buy signal. Money flow. Money's flowing in. We had that positive divergence. Uh do we get to the top of the range? Doesn't have to. It hasn't been for a while. So, we're just going to um no setup here.
16:15 I'll just leave it at that. Ballinger band. We tagged the top of the Ballinger band with an overbought uh situation. That was a sell signal. Elliot oscillator back to the neutral spot. Do we get this little whip saw here? Possibly just like this. Or we just can continue to head lower. Um but that would be cool if we made these new lows and either we have this big red spike or we get a higher low in the um histogram here. That would mark a good bottom there. All right. And you know, you could look at this as a bear type flag. So if um price gets to that 6,500, maybe it looks something
17:02 like that. I said 6,500. My gosh, the um 675 right here, the golden pocket. If it does go a little bit higher, so you have a bare flag, you do that. Um, also you could look at this on the very short term. Actually, let's go to the 15. Don't do this very often, but if this is uh our our move here, you kind of you have a inverse head and shoulder. First of all, you have left shoulder, head, right shoulder, and we're back testing. Okay, so we could clearly could go higher. We could go as high as a 678 area. And what would uh what would that be? you have your zigzag. Okay, you have a
17:50 five, three, five. This this last wave here um could extend. So, is this actually a one, two, three, four, five, and it's complete? That's one way. Or if all of this spike was a one, two, you had your third wave, fourth in this uh expanding ending diagonal. All right. And then your fifth wave would be the extension where it goes longer. And it doesn't have to stop here. It could go the full length to the 786. All right? And that would that would give you something in the realm of these. If you take those
18:35 three peaks here and you you start this expanding move. Okay. So, you have this expansion. So, if you do get up here, you're looking at maybe testing the downtrend. Okay. And there's other ways you can draw it, too. on SPX. I have it drawn it like this where you take the top and you start to get this peak here, that peak there, and that would just bring you to the um 675. So that that would be, you know, that would be a hard place to get past because if we do form negative
19:21 divergence there and we get this spike, maybe maybe uh with FOMC, it loves to just wick through things. So maybe it goes all the way up here with a big wick and then fails. So we'll be looking out for that. All right, just protect your gains, protect your portfolio, and we'll go from there. All right, you guys have a wonderful day and we will talk to you soon. Don't forget to like and subscribe and we'll see you tomorrow.
