Market Report 7 16 2025

0:00 Hello and welcome to the Gold Ghost and Guns market report for today, Wednesday, July 16, 2025. My name is Tom Wonger. We have a lot to talk about. Um, I've gotten some good feedback from a few of you about a potential get together in here in North Carolina in the next uh in September. I'm hoping to be able to work something out still. Um, don't have all the details yet, but it's out there possibility. We have a a facility is is potentially near Asheville. So for those of you in that area, we we might be able to come up with something. Wasn't looking for a very big thing here um to be honest with you. So I know every time we've done this in the past, it's like ballooned way out way beyond uh what we were hoping or expecting for. Uh but uh

0:49 we're hoping to to make these uh slightly more regular so that they don't have to be um quite the affair. So that being said, if you can get me, you know, some information whether you be interested or not, um send me a DM, please here on Patreon, direct message here on Patreon, and that would be uh that would be helpful. Okay. All right. Um we've got a lot to cover. There's a lot of things, but doing these only once a week is is actually quite frustrating. So, my um for me, my uh vacation ends tomorrow. We'll be driving back to Florida uh most of tomorrow. So, today I'm going to try and get through I'm going to try and hit on a lot of things. Don't let the um the three bullet points fool you. We've got a lot of little things to cover here and I'm hoping that I can remember them all because remember folks, I do these live.

1:36 Um, first things first, let's before we get into the big stuff, because frankly, final word on Epstein is the following. It's pretty obvious at this point that Trump and company are playing uh some kind of game with the Epstein files. I don't know what it is. I have my idea. I have my my thoughts on it. Um, I've got inferences. We've been kicking some stuff around on Slack. kicking some stuff around with other people. Um the reality is is that what's important here is that Trump is finding out who is and who is not um his who his supporters are and it's leading a lot of it's lending a lot of credence to the Berling games under um uh idea

2:24 that these are loyalty tests. Um, and I need you to understand that, you know, even if you don't agree with it, even if you think that, you know, the whole thing should be exposed or whatever. And and you're perfectly reasonable in thinking any of this. Like, don't get me wrong. I'm not this is not a struggle session. You know, this is not me saying you're an idiot for believing or wanting X, Y, and Z about Epstein. Not at all. Because I'm not even sure what I want out of Epstein at this point. I'm just seeing the current kurfuffle for what it is or for what I think it is and it feels like the groundwork for impeachment. It feels like another yet another operation. And when

3:10 I look at the sequence of events over the last few months since Trump's been in office, I see systematic attempts to attack his me prominent members of his cabinet culminating now with Pam Bondi at attorney general, which is the one that they never wanted to give up control over. And now the big question is, is Bondi just another Bill Bar or, you know, Jeff Sessions or whatever? You don't know. Okay, we're gonna find out over the course of time, but everybody has rallied around Pam and um for right now, I'm going to continue to trust Trump's judgment on this that he's going to, you know, leak this stuff out or send out what needs to be sent out

3:57 over time. But I'm getting a real JFK style vibe out of this times 100, meaning, you know, Trump really wanted to release the JFK files in his first um term in office and he couldn't do so. Eventually, they did. We found out everything we found out about JFK was stuff we already know. Um, am I happy with the way Trump is handling all this? Not really. his tweet this morning about um I now know in fact I now know who is and who isn't oily. Okay. Um is uh is telling it's telling of two things. one that EM is probably correct

4:44 and that this is loyalty test for a variety of people including his sub including his um quoteunquote friends in the alternative media um as well as within his cabinet and it's also probably indicative of the epic levels of stress that he's under right now and I don't know if he's going to handle this well or not. I really don't. Um, I'm hoping that it does. What I find hilarious though is that the alternative media space has lost its ever loving mind. And I'm talking now geopolitically. Geopolitically, I'm watching everyone turn against Trump because of what happened in Iran in Israel. Even though the net

5:31 effect is two of them beat each other up and neither of them are really in any position to do anything. Everybody's clearly missing the boat on his announcement that he's going to send, you know, 17 Patriot missile batteries to Europe and they're going to pay for them. Then we come out find out this morning that Europe never agreed to this that they were going to pay for them. So like this is epic level trolling. Trump is still completely in control of the situation. I think and I think that you know again what he says and what he does are completely different things right and he's he's always done this and everybody has and so many people are lighting their hair on fire because they cannot

6:16 deal with the the fact that Trump lies strategically and Trump says things to get strategic effect. He does it and he he says he says a lot of things. What matters is what he actually does. And the important part about everything that's happening right now, this goes even so far as to talking about Jerome Powell. Like everything that he's doing right now is about tritting out his enemies. And I I I I see it almost clearly at this point. And Epstein, you know, will he won't he will they release some stuff but not release other stuff. Blah blah blah

7:02 blah. All that is about, you know, retaining leverage where he can get it. What matters is that the bits and pieces of his program, whether you agree with that program or not, and I'm talking now to the hardcore Bitcoiners in the audience, because I think that the this is why I'm going to get this is why the talking third talking point is up here this morning. But what he's attempting to do is to remake the way the world handles and and control and and moves money around. and he understands that it's the money that matters. I think he's trying to do almost everything all at once. Okay. And he may be taking on more than he can

7:48 chew. You know, his eyes may be bigger than the sun, I guess, my mom would like to say. Um and um I don't know, you know, does he have enough real support to get that done? We're going to find out. But for everybody lighting their hair on fire today and worried that Trump is, you know, losing the base t in the the tactics of the moment, I say to you, this is today. This is July 2025. If there was ever a time to deal with a mess like this, then it would be now because you're a year away, more than a year away from

8:34 the midterms. Two things can be true simultaneously. Now, there can be no Epstein list as they've as he's saying he keeps saying the list doesn't exist. It's not real. This is not to say that there's not information about Jeffrey Epstein's operations that are going to be declassified or going to be shown to the public. Those are two those two things can be true at the same time. There can be plenty of information about Jeffrey Epstein that is leaked to that is released to the public and there still be no list and he could be completely right and vindicated that there is no list and that it was literally created out of whole cloth by people like John Brennan and uh Barack Obama and the rest of them

9:21 as he's said. So, you know, the question is, you know, are people going to get tired of Trump playing the victim game when he's literally the president and has the ability to not be the victim? Well, yes and no. Because this is the problem is, is the president really as powerful as you think he is? Well, if he is, if he exercises his article three powers, which he's been doing, and which the Supreme Court has been um adjudicating in his favor on every one of these bogus lawsuits that have been designed to slow things down. So, from that perspective, he's, you know, promises made, promises kept. He's doing exactly what he said he

10:06 would do within the purview of his article two powers as president. the Epstein thing is the classic poison pill. And um in my in my mind, you can disagree with me. I don't at this point, you know, that's you're right. So you tune in to see what I have to say about these things. This is what I have to say. So when you put this in the context of everything else that's happened right now there is no war between Israel and Iran and Israel's Kazba has been taken off the table officially most of um Iran's Kazban has been removed from the scene everybody's bloiating and saying things but no one's

10:53 actually doing anything and when you really stop to look at it every and I was watching um I'll give you a perfect example how so many people are reacting to what's said and then wanting to put their spin on it to to push the particular agenda that they think they is going on. What I mean by this is the following. I was listening to a hottake live stream yesterday uh with Larry Johnson and uh Lawrence Wilkerson. Now Wilkerson I haven't listened to in months and I listened to one thing out of his mouth and I shut the podcast off. Larry Johnson went first and said, "Hey, look, there's not enough Patriot missiles out there. Clinton Trump's going to pledge 17 missile batteries. They shoot 16 a piece and Loy Martin can only make 600 of a year." And Larry's right about all the

11:38 numbers. So, like the whole thing is like nonsense. What Larry objects to is that Trump comes out the day before I have a big thing that I'm going to do and blah blah. Larry just hates it. Blow the eggs. I know. I know Larry personally. I know he hates that. It bothers him. He's an analyst. He's a data guy. He says and he's a very blunt and and honest person. So he doesn't say things for strategic purposes. He doesn't he doesn't just say things because he's trying to, you know, move a headline or or or manipulate the media. And Larry's an analyst and he goes, "Well, this is dumb, Mr. President. Why would you ever do say that?" Well, because I'm trying to do something else over here, Larry. I got it. Don't worry about it. I'm on top of it. That's that

12:25 disconnect. and it's very clear and I've talked to Larry about this privately and I tried to like and and that's fine. So the whole thing was framed in the idea that Trump was you know bloiating and going to do this big thing and then you know Putin called his bluff by going yeah whatever Don you can say whatever you want. Putin understands the game his lavro understands the game. Why does Larry not understand the game at at this point? Larry Wilkerson on the other hand literally said the following and should invalidate him as an analyst in going forward. This is the essence of his argument and I should link to this just so you can watch him do it. He says

13:13 Trump is losing his base over this Epstein thing and the war with Iran and blah blah blah blah. So he's making these big statements and then he's torching his base at the same time by not by by like it it was literally he's losing his base and then he's taking actions that make things worse and expect him to continue doing more of that because he's losing his base. Like no, he would be course correcting if he was truly losing his base. Colonel Wilkerson, you literal TDS besided And I'm like, that's that's it. I mean, just because you've got colonel in front of your name and you've been behind the scenes doesn't mean you know anything. It's the same problem I have with Doug McGregor. Like these guys like McGregor

13:59 just has become more and more, you know, when he came on the scene, he was just chatting about what needed to be done or whatever, it was great. The minute he saw like my sources say I'm like your sources are crap obviously because you haven't gotten anything right. So you're clearly a vector for misinformation and Larry Wilkerson just hates Trump and I know Larry Johnson's not happy with Trump either. So at the same time like but you can you know but at least Larry's like trying to stick to the data but neither of them can see the strategic advantage for saying hey um Europe you want to fight a war in Europe with Russia as Martin Armstrong put out yesterday in a private blog they want to

14:46 throw 250,000 troops NATO troops into Ukraine to start the war and Marty's of course worried that Trump is going to be dragged along into this. I'm like, why? Sending 17 Patriot missile batteries that Europe's going to pay for isn't sending our guys into into combat. Moreover, he points out, he said to Putin, he's like, "Look, I'll give you another 50 days, make a deal." Now, it's a similar scen scenario that he said, "I will give you give Iran 60 days to make a deal." on a day 51, you can expect that Trump is going to do something because he's made the point. Okay? So, because if you're going to negotiate

15:31 with, you have to state your case clearly and then follow through on, which is exactly what he did with Iran. Now, I throw some other things in the hopper for you. Trump has lifted sanctions on Russian on Rosatam and the banks working with Rosatam in order to promote civilian nuclear programs around the world. That happened on June 30th. Um he lifted sanctions on other aspects on on Russian soybeans the other day. Um, I saw a report of an American consortium going in to buy a bunch of um, Odessa

16:17 port assets. That's an interesting move. Not British, right? We're still looking at an American group wanting to buy a Nordstream, too, along with the Russians. in order to get Nordstream 2 moving again. There's a lot of things happening. Trump's not in control of all of them. People are making their independent moves. Netanyahu is still making his moves in Syria. So is Erdigan. It almost looks like Syria is starting to turn into another one of these. Well, the British are behind Erdigan in Syria. And they're still behind Netanyahu in Israel. And they're trying to jin up another fake fight over the Drews. Like, you know, six months

17:03 ago, nobody even knew who the freaking Drews were. Now all of a sudden they're the cause right for both sides. This is very very typical of the of a kind of move counter move scenario that we're in. And I'm not saying that I know who's in charge of the Escoari ladder here. But I can tell you that so far Trump's instincts on all of these things have been more correct than not. And so therefore I have no worries here about where we're headed. I mean with him like he's gonna do something monumentally stupid but everybody is expecting him to do something monumentally stupid and I keep saying to myself why I learned my lesson after you know him bombing um Syria in in April of 2017. I

17:52 learned my lesson about some of the about these things where I was off the Trump train because of this about killing Solommani by the way. Those were mistakes on my part. I was in a different frame of mind, a much less um a much less cogent state of mind. And I've literally gotten to the point where I'm like, I don't believe anybody's bullshitting more. I know Trump's bullshitting me about bullshitting everybody about a lot of things and he's bull probably bullshitting me on a few things, but when all is said and done, what's actually done is what's important.

18:38 Okay? So everybody needs to take if you if there's any part of this opening monologue this morning that is a bit of a struggle session or whatever is for everybody to take for everybody to step back and take off their anger hats. Whether you're angry at me or Trump or this one or that one, take them all off and look at what's going on and you'll see a pretty clear, you know, common theme running through the entire the entire affair. This is a fullcourt press to destroy Trump's presidency before it gets started. And it's happening now.

19:25 This is the moment where all of these things that are happening are all building blocks, cornerstone, bits of the foundation of remaking the United States as an independent sovereignty. And it's going to be messy. It's going to be ugly. It's going to be hard. And you're either going to, you know, accept the fact that this is the general you've got or whine about it. You're you're perfectly within your rights to whine about it. that's not what I'm going to do. And if that's, you know, that's not worth your money or worth your time, I can't stop you from leaving it. So, so that being said, let's talk about um a number of things. Let's talk about Jerome Pal

20:10 because I think all of these things are tied together. Trump is clearly setting up the narrative that the Federal Reserve needs to be reformed. all of this pressure that he's putting on Powell about interest rates and now the whole um $2 and half billion dollar new building that's over budget for the new Federal Reserve building and all of that stuff that's all about setting the narrative for the average person the average person who knows nothing about the Fed and say look the Fed is a problem and it's been a source of a lot of our problems as Americans on this point Nobody should be arguing with it. Within this community, we're so far

20:56 ahead of the curve, we forget that we're not normal. We've selected out in this community, which is an incredibly highowered group of people. People who are thinking three, four, five, six steps ahead. I got I got a ping this morning from Randy Hiller who said, "Hey, you should I love your podcast. you should really do an episode on the cantillian effect because you know a lot of people just don't understand what's going on with that. I'm like I'm like not a bad suggestion but would you guys really want to listen to me talk about the basics of the Cantellion effect for an hour on the Gold and Guns podcast? No. Why? Because we're already five steps ahead of the Cantellian effect. We're already so far down the the the the the

21:44 we're five steps down having integrated can't tell you the fact and this and this and that and now we're looking at you know third fourth fifth order effects of those things right so like you know seems a little too basic for me for the audience that I've cultivated that's what I told him this morning said it flat out on Twitter like that's a hard that's a hard one for me do, but I I'll put it in the back pocket and where and when and where I can, you know, bring it up, I will. So, the the situation with Powell is really simple. I think the Fed is in the process that Trump is in is is going to um reform the Fed. I was chatting with

22:30 Mel Kay yesterday about this very thing. I mean, that's what we focused on for an hour. And uh and I think he's laying the groundwork to reform the Fed and possibly to repeal the banking act in 1935 or something along those lines or reform it. You know, having I think who was it? It was Py or somebody else came out this morning and said that Jerome Fowl is the worst Federal Reserve share we've ever had. Like that's a gross overstatement. That's a that's literally a gross overstatement. Powell's done everything imaginable to try and extricate ourselves. extricate the United States from this. But it's been a slow, painful process. the the Larucian girls, the Larucian aunties, Susan Kokenda, Barbara,

23:16 whatever her name is from Prometheian, you know, they have their perspective is that libertarians are stupid and that um um free trade is is anathema to to to the world and that you know high interest rates and any form of austerity is um you know is wrong. I got news for you. They're right about 75 or 80% of the of all their analysis and they're wrong on they're typically wrong on certain points because the markets are far more complicated than they want us to believe because they have an agenda as well. And and I like them. I think they're great. I'm glad that they're coming out of the woodwork now and doing their thing and yada yada yada. My job now is to like remind you to of

24:03 where the potential holes in their arguments are. It's like listening to Robert Barnes this morning, you know, swallow hook, line, and sinker that Trump sold told Zilinsky he needed to hit Moscow to pressure Putin to the table. And that came out of the Financial Times. Like Robert knows that the Financial Times is right doesn't mean it doesn't know anything that writes that that furthers its agenda that it's literally globalist rag central and they're not above lying about anything Trump said on like give me a break like do we have primary sources no did they actually commit acts of of you know of acts of uh of journalism at the financial times give me a break like nothing's changed every article you read financial financial press or

24:49 geopolitical press at this There's a nugget of truth at the core that's wrapped in like 14 very subtle lies. And we've just gotten to that point where you have to you have to like you can't use any of that as gospel truth. It's not I mean it's not primary s like the Financial Times is not primary source material. Okay. It's not it's at best secondary or tertiary source material. So, but you know this deal is being cut. It's real. They they you know they signed contracts and you know reported on it. Those things you can take to the bank.

25:35 So we're so the situation with Powell is is is simple and I'd rather discuss and I'm going to like where Powell is now 10 days out from the next FOMC meeting. And you know, I was on with Chris Marcus before I left for for uh vacation. And you know, Chris and I chatted about it. I said, 'Well, I could see Powell, you know, in order to appease Trump and the and the pressure that he's under. And if the and if the data moves his way, I did say this and if the data bears this out that like the inflation comes in low and everything else comes in low, then he could have the opportunity to cut and he could cut hard up front and be done with it.

26:21 But that data didn't come in and the markets are now choosing to believe that Powell's not going to cut next week. And I think they're probably right. But that was a call I made on what? July 1st. Didn't know. So, you know, so funny that we still have people in the community that are, you know, accusing me of saying things like that in order to get clicks. I'm like, I'm the worst marketer in the world. If I was actually any good at marketing, this community would be three times the size that it is. So that's clearly, you know, just a dumb comment from, you know, people that are who've got an axe to buy. Whatever. I don't care. His money spent. So, but let's talk about the CPI. CPI came in exactly the way I would have expected

27:08 it to given gasoline prices, which we're going to talk with. I'll show you the chart when we get to it in a couple minutes. CPI came in slightly above expectations but or slightly above expectations headline. Core CPI was was was flat which is good overall because that means that Powell can cut and then we can start you know rolling over this debt that that we have to at a lower at lower rates at some point in the future. It's just not going to be this summer. Sorry folks. Sorry Trump. You don't get everything you want. You've gotten a lot of the things you want. Um but producer prices came in this morning below expectations. Industrial production was up surprisingly and there was a big crude

27:53 oil um draw all happened this morning. All that data this morning says yeah um we got mixed signals. Employment data is pretty good too. Now, the employment data looks better than it is because Trump is firing and we're watching resignations and early retirements from a lot of government employees that have not shown up in the unemployment statistics yet because they were given, you know, multi-month buyouts or they're sitting on, you know, six months worth of worth of back pay that they are going to live on. So, they're not going to file for unemployment for the first three or four or six months. You know, like none of that's going to show up in the unemployment data for at least another couple of months, right? all the people that are um that have been fired and a

28:38 better leading indicator of what's going on in the government is check home prices check you know home sale prices and uh Fairfax Virginia right Louden County but then the unemployment statistics when it comes to that so um but that's where we are in July but you know I don't think Powell doesn't hasn't factored that and of course he has so he's got the data covered to say look I don't need to cut rates right now and you don't want me to cut rates because as Daniel D. Martino B reminds us all the time, historically speaking, when the Fed starts cutting, that's when the stock market rolls over because the Fed's cutting because the the economy is When the economy is roaring, you keep interest rates high in order to keep the cost of capital, you

29:25 know, from to keep the economy from overheating from excess access to capital. Like Powell is actually doing what he's supposed to do. If Trump has been so damn successful, like this is the catch 22. If Trump wants to roll over the debt, he's got to, you know, he's going to have a crappy economy. If he wants to roll over the debt at lower rates this year, then he needs to have a crappy economy in order to get the Fed to cut interest rates so that he can roll over the debt. He doesn't have that problem. He has the exact opposite problem, which is that he's got a reasonably decent economy. Tariffs are doing their job. The budget is writing itself.

30:10 Writing as an RA GHT, not writing as in RW writ, right? The it's the the budget is fixing itself. Tariff revenue is coming in hot and heavy. It's doing its job. We're not seeing any inflation from it as the as you know margins are being compressed overseas. I said well we you should expect oh what a shock offshore companies were making money hand over freaking bit this because of this. Somebody asked me to do a review of the nifty50 which the you know Indian basically the Indian Dow. I've got that for patron request hour in a couple minutes. Now that I think about it, I'm like, "Yeah, it makes perfect sense that, you know, they were making money hand over fist in a in a in this

30:57 environment. So now they're not. Maybe we'll see what happens. Once they start paying a heavy tariff, we should expect margin compression in emerging markets." And so the the massive outperformance in emerging markets that we've seen so far this year may reverse itself, should reverse itself pretty hard, but it's not going to show up for a quarter or two in earning statements or even, you know, remember in when dealing with foreign stocks, everybody's got different accounting rules. And so, by the way, when assessing foreign stocks, to remind everybody, use price to sales, not use price to earnings because earnings are funible

31:43 depending on the the rules, the accounting rules that are used in each individual country. They're all different. This is a very subtle point that a lot of people don't know, but I know because I spent three years studying Vietnam and Singapore. So the uh when you when you are assessing whether or not these companies are going to start rolling over but then again half of them you know half of these countries don't even report on a quarterly the companies don't report on a quarterly basis they report on a half year or even an annual basis. So what do you do? you know, you might not even know that the the company's in trouble until, you know, from tariffs until much later on. Then you have to go

32:28 with the secondary things, channel checks, you know, and it becomes a lot harder as an analyst to deal with this. So, be very careful. I would what I would say is if you're, you know, if you've made money in in emerging markets this year, great. Masleto, I'd be uh I'd be I'd be skeptical that you're going to get you're going to continue to get the double dip of rising stock markets and strengthening currencies. those those tend to reverse and they become falling stock markets, weakening currencies and that will be a liquidity issue especially with margin depression added tariffs until and once everybody starts to reorganize their uh reorient around

33:13 this regime and again the Fed is at the center of this because we don't want a central bank dominated world then we have to act we actually have to start criticizing the Fed and not the way we've criticized the Fed in the past. Okay? Because the Fed, it's not your daddy's Fed. We're on sulfur now, not live. Now, the Fed is a domestic policy focused institution and can be a domestic economy focused institution because we have so we don't have to worry about what's going on in Europe. We don't care what's going on in Europe and Powell doesn't. And he's been very clear that he doesn't care what's going on the rest of the world. He's not he never makes any comments about global this or global that. Never. He doesn't set policy based on any of that. Every

33:58 time Christine Lard at one of these summits or one of these meetings or, you know, tetatets that they have, she tries to get him to, you know, tow the globalist line, he just looks her in the face and says, "Shut the up." Metaphorically speaking, of course, he's far too much of a gentleman for that. Good thing I'm not futter. Be like, "Shut up, Hobach. Go get your You didn't You should wear a red scarf today to cover up your Adams out." That's what I would have said. But, you know, I'm a dick. So, um, which is why I'm not head of the Federal Reserve and with good reason. So, you know, Powell's probably not going to cut racist. Chuck one, you know, hey, you're not

34:44 throwing a dollar in the Tomas White jars. As as Chris Marcus put it the other day, I'm like, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't care. like I'm just calling it things as I see them on particular date. This on July 16th data looks data has come out data is indicative of the fact that the Fed could cut rates if it wanted to if it's seeing other things in the credit markets that are potentially dangerous and they could cut by 25. It would be a surprise and a shock but that's not usually Powell's way. He doesn't do it often. he doesn't shock the markets anyway. But if he doesn't cut here, he's going to cut by 50th September and the market and the the sofa markets will be wrong.

35:31 But again, you know, these are young markets and there's a lot of money out there that is desperately trying to um prevent all of these things from happening. So, our drama this morning was over the failure the first the failure of the genius bill or the stable bill whatever business genius bill all the crypto bills um because it didn't explicitly say we can't have a CBDC. Well, yes, and I appreciate that and Trump cut a deal this morning on that. Great. That's fantastic. It's going to pass. the uh um the recision bill made it through the Senate because um JD Vance can cast cast

36:18 the tiebreaking vote because JD Vance is loyal to Donald Trump and is it only it's only $9.3 billion worth of precisions. Okay, it's a good start. Remember, we're fixing the fiscal side of the balance sheet in other ways. They are cutting spending. They are not spending money that was budgeted under Biden. The Treasury is not having to sell as many um bonds and T bills in order to fund the government operations as of right now. Then they projected we've had two quarters in a row where they you know revise down how much money they're going to need to get through the next quarter. That's a big deal and we should appre we should applaud that and we should say we want more. I know you want, but you also

37:04 don't want, you know, Mad Max either. Okay, so this is how we're doing. And u you know, just because you want something doesn't mean you're necessarily going to get your cookie, you know, and at some point that's the way we have to accept. We have to deal with it. You're more than welcome to go out there and state your case about why it needs to be more now in order to alleviate your anxiety or your anger or your frustration or whatever it is or satisfy your agenda, which is mostly what I see. That's fine. I don't really care. I'm just over it and I'm over watching a whole bunch of people stress themselves out into in into crazy lunacy. And the the libertarians do this with

37:51 every president that they ever have any hopes for. And I just watch it. I'm just like, "Wow, you really don't understand how the world actually works for people who say that they do." But, you know, it is what it is. So, um, big news, other big news before I go into the charts, um, is, uh, advancements that Ripple is becoming a big deal, right? Ripple is happening is Ripple's um position is being solidified pretty quickly. Um they're making their move. I don't know whether Ripple is I still don't know whether Ripple is, you know, on our team or not on our team or whatever whatever's going on. But I'll tell you flat out that um

38:39 it's definitely part of the scheme to get out from underneath what's happening now from underneath the deflation and to assert American independence and American dominance and to it's part of the whole hey can we get rid of the central banks? Yes. And um that's a great thing because if we can get rid of the central banks, we can get rid of um the merchant banks that do all the forex and who make all their money in forex and not in you know actually providing services to clients to build wealth make money on moving money.

39:26 If we can disintermediate that, then we're going to have a a much more interesting future than we have previously. And Bitcoin clearly is being moved into the collateral portion of the um of the of Extras pyramid along with gold. And those two should continue to compete with one another as asset classes because um you always want to have you always want to have competition between you know forms of in my mind for in in term in this case in terms of collateral. You want to have competition there and you want to move the US

40:11 Treasury bond and US Treasury bill out of that role as pristine collateral or you know the closest thing to Christine collateral. You you want to have that happen but you also don't want rates to go to 13%. I mean unless you're D column. So you know it's early days in this war in this days of the war and it's going to look and losing is going to look and winning is going to look like losing and losing is going to look like winning and it's going to be difficult and it's going to fry all of our nerves and it's going to make us all it's going to it's going to you know set people against each other and everything else. But I just ask you on a regular basis, you know, who does that

41:01 because I think it's pretty clear what what we're looking at right now globally. We're being shown what the price of of rebellion looks like. If you don't know what I'm getting at, what I mean is what did America and Britain do, the UK do in 2016? One voted for Brexit, the other one voted for Trump. They they rejected the globalist agenda. So they spent three years

41:48 delaying Brexit, a deal on Brexit, and then they destroyed um the British economy and the British political system and the traditional parties. And right now they're in burn it to the ground mode. They when the when when the move to put Kirst in Queer Stalin in or worse Queef Stalin um we put him in place. The um the point of it was to begin the process of truly liquidating everything about the United Kingdom. Just add more ridiculous sort of regulations, spend more money, um lie about the money that

42:36 you're spending. The big thing for them was the is the admission that they're going to spend seven billion pounds on importing 180,000 Afghans into the UK, which they lied to them about. And somebody made a really good point this morning that, you know, one of the reasons why the guilt market trades the way it does is because, you know, the British are generally pretty transparent about everything they do, no matter how bad it is. And this one they weren't. And so that's going to change a lot of people's calculus. take it for what it's worth. But what you're seeing in the UK and in Ireland right now, that's the price for saying no. And they're going to do the same thing at Canada.

43:22 And they're trying to do the same thing here. And the choice that's going to be before us is going to be an ugly one. And um never never think that they're going to let us out of this without getting her getting punched in the mouth four or five times. And so if you don't have the stomach for that, and not a lot not everybody does. Okay. Um and I'll be honest with you, I didn't think I did. There were many times over the last seven, eight years I was like, what do we do here? Is this the right path? because I can see this ending battle. Remember folks, I've had the FBI to my

44:08 house twice. So, you find out what you're actually made of when you put yourself on the fire. I'm not saying that I'm made of stern suffering and I'm still figuring out what I'm made of. But if you're not made up, if you're not cut out for the level of of uh a fight that's on the horizon, prepare accordingly. And I mean that sincerely and I mean that with all the love and respect in the world. And I think it's very clear that there are a lot of people out there right now

44:54 who aren't who have war that they did. So we'll see. So with that said, let's get on the charts like a daddy. Um, so gold I think you know this the last time we spoke I I I said we got to remember that I have to remember you know who I've spoken to when I didn't speak to you on Sunday. I think last Wednesday I reminded you that um you know we have this two bar reversal here of the of this uptrend and that in order to you know declare with some degree of confidence that gold was ready to break above the 3400 area 3450 area um it would need to throw a two bar reversal by closing above that high this

45:42 week and didn't do so. So what we're getting is, you know, lower and lower volatility. Well, actually what we're getting back to is that this is a close to a normal volatility bar to some here is to 92%. Would be really nice to get to get a just a normal volatility bar where the the range is only about $59 and get that for a week or two just to see what gold does under normal volatility conditions because this is not normal volatility, right? So markets are clearly trying the gold market is clearly trying to figure out is there going to be greater disruption or are things going to work themselves out and if there's a dollar spouse to the upside the dollar is rising and

46:28 after the after the crude oil draw this morning which happened after I pulled the charts today the euro was down below 116 the pound is down below 134 it's they've all reversed hard in the last seven days. Oh yeah, they're up for the year, but you know, as Brent Johnson likes to point out all the time, when Trump took office in 2016, dollar was trading at 88. Now you're all complaining that the dollar the dollar is going to die at 98. I don't understand. Well, that's because, you know, all that matters is what they can sell from last week. So, um, so gold is, you know, kind of comfortable here in this current range, but at some point if there's going to be a spasm, gold is going to be rated as a piggy bank. And

47:15 what we don't want is a we don't ever want to pull off top in gold. We want steady as she goes, three yards in a cloud of dust. We don't want this. We don't want this nonsense, this tariff nonsense, and then the war nonsense. We don't want any of that. Do you just want no rock and roll $20, no rock and roll up $15, no rock and roll down $10, no rock and roll up $40. That's what we want because that's the path to the sustainable stick it in the craw of every who ever stole money from us. That's how we beat them on our path to 5,000, 6,000, 7,000, whatever it is that's going to get you to the point

48:00 where where they're bankrupt and we're made whole or at least somewhat whole. That's how we be. Okay. So, we needed this. We needed this after this. Okay. Sorry. Silver silver uh after the false move down. A classic Martin Armstrong false move down. What did we get? What looked like a dead cap bounce, but was too strong a move for it to be a dead cap bounce because dead cap bounce usually goes back to the 38% Fibonacci line, maybe the 50. And this is clearly the 62% line just by looking at it. Trade sideways for six weeks, break out higher. Trade sideways for four weeks, break out higher. Silver stairstepping its way to $40 and

48:45 unnerving the markets. Nope. Up a dollar. Up two bucks. won the shorts up $2. Won the shorts. The bulls are playing this very well. I like what I see. Okay, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now officially broken off to the upside. Why? Bitcoin needs to go up in order to provide more collateral in the nassent system that's being built outside of the central banks. So, Bitcoin has to go to 250 or 500,000 a coin. How else are we going to liqufy that system? If we're going to build a new monetary system with gold and Bitcoin at the as the collateral and the Fed relegated to um

49:33 managing corporate paper market and the uh banking sector and the removal of the big banks from the trade in treasuries and everything else. We want to get away from that. How are you going to get back to that where we have community banking and the Fed backstocking backstopping commercial paperwork which is what built America then we need to get rid of the Fed funds rate. We need to privatize it make it you know exist only within the repo system I all sofer and we need hard pristine collateral at the bottom. What happens after that is irrelevant. Bitcoin takes over the world after that, I'm good with that. I don't care about that. I'm not I don't believe that I

50:21 have that kind of crystal ball. And anybody who thinks that they do, great. Deploy your capital. That's not my job. So, really happy to see this. Ripple's trying to push back towards three bucks. By the way, at the same time, new things are coming. New ETFs are on the just over the horizon probably for this fall. At that point, the the the really easy money at Ripple will have to make because it'll probably be trading about5 six dollars a coin a token by that. So, for those who asked a couple of times now, um XRP you can the only there's only a couple of ETFs on the market right now. Uh and they're financialized versions. They're not, you know, hold XRP as tokens in a closed end fund like

51:07 Rayscale does with their Bitcoin. Um this is you know these are the 2x lever trading against the futures market you know um ones there's one called XRP and there's another one I don't remember the the ticker symbol for it for it um so if you want Ripple exposure that's and you want it in your Fidelity account that's the way you're going to do it otherwise going to have to open up a Coinbase account or something you know or some other crypto wallet and go buy it from an exchange that way. Okay. But if we do away with capital gains tax on crypto, which we're in the process of doing Katie bar the door, the money is going to flood into that system quickly and it will be back stopped. It's and a

51:55 lot of it will be backs stopped by US treasuries. Again, that's why they had to raise the debt ceiling. It's why they were adamant that they wanted to raise the debt ceiling by five trillion dollars. Not just to get off the political table for the rest of Trump's term, but also to have as a potential to allow them to expand the stock of treasuries that's out there. Remember, between the SLR and the stable coin market, that $5 trillion in new demand for treasuries could be a problem really soon. And yet you will hear nothing but the usual suspects only talk about the supply side of the quantity period of money and not ever talk about the demand side. And if you're not doing both if you're not doing boats just like you're not you're only talking about the

52:40 liabilities in the United States and not talking about the assets then you're not doing real account. You're not doing real analysis. What you're doing is spewing an agenda. Look at both sides and then decide what you say. Again, we would all do better to stop lighting our hair on fire and stop being gaslit by morons, especially when they weak of lime. Okay. Brent crude. Um, as far as the Brent crude chart is concerned, this spasm here for the 12-day war doesn't exist. Just look at

53:26 the trend. Just connect if you need to visually disconnect these highs and these lows and what you clearly are seeing is an up well it's an upward wedge which is never which is technically not a good um um formation. But you know again I'm not a big fan of chart art. So as of right now and I haven't remember I pulled this chart at like eight o'clock this morning before the new crude number. So, I have no idea where oil's trading, you know, while talking about this, but as of right now, it just looks like we got a breakout and now we're going to get a retest of the of the we're going to get a retest this week and oil may not be ready to move into the mid70s. Oh well. Um, but

54:13 Baker Hughes recount was down. Oil inventories were down. Okay. Um, oil's not going to stay in the se in the 60s for long because there's not at that price. There's not enough profit to um to support, you know, u more wells and drilling more wells, what you've got to get the price up in the 70s. So, I still think we're going to see a move back into 75 to $80. And as the euro rolls over, that's going to put upward and really

55:00 quick upward pressure on inflation in the Euro zone. Okay. Well, first I forgot to animate the second one. So, let's look at the first one. Let's look let's do patient request hour. Get through this. Omega Health uh healthcare investors, OI, ticker symbol OHI. um is a is a health care rate. So um nursing homes, that kind of thing. Um in the US and UK, two things about REITs, same thing that you learn about um master limited partnerships, which is that all the main reason why you're buying them is for their yield that they're effectively bonds. Um and then you buy them when the yield is high so that you can get some price expansion and then they get

55:47 expensive and then and you you augment they're usually you know ordinary yield 3 to 5% with playing the tops and bottoms of the trading range because generally speaking they don't move a lot. Maybe they, you know, some do, but for the most part, there's a lot of there's a lot of charts like this in the re certainly since 2022 when, you know, PAL started raising rates. So, we have a double top at 41. We're trading right now kind of in the new a what I would call the average true range because I think this solid support at 37 or 36. So, it's trading around 38 41 on the upside. So, it's right around where I think it's um should be trading. Um, the question is, is the 7.1% yield

56:34 on this stock defensible? Is are they going to continue to pay 7.1% because why would I take on the risk of this thing dropping back to 30 if it's not going to be paying me 7%. And then 30 would pay so closer to 10%. Well, the question then is is the coverage ratio which is defined as the amount of money they pay out dividends versus EBIT which you know for 2024 just doing a gross look at the numbers and it looks pretty stable going back in time that they're paying about that their coverage ratio uh the amount they're paying in dividends versus Ebaton not versus cash flow is 1.4 and anything above really 1.2 is very good. So they're basically 40% over capitalized to continue paying this dividend. So, with that said, um, if I

57:21 were buying the stock, I looking at the stock, I'd be looking to pick it up in the $36 area on general market weakness in order to enhance the yield and then hoping to get the push back to 38 while I continue to pull in 7% a year on a quarterly basis. That would be the strategy there. If there's a big move to 41, masle top, that'll be a triple top. It may break out from there. If it doesn't, falls back, you know what to do. Um the Nifty50 is basically the Indian Dow. Um and I was asked to look at this. So what we have now is a double top forming here. And I've already given away a lot of the the commentary on this earlier in the podcast. So um we got a double top. We had a strong bullish reversal here after a strong bearish reversal. A

58:07 really nice rally here. One bar reversal, five bar downtrend, two bar reversal, four bar uptrend to a double top. Okay. Um not a not a difficult chart to read. It's actually quite a clean chart and it was even um a four bar rally into the double tap on expanding volume versus falling volume. Well, it was so volume was falling. It was easily reversed on on buying. So there's a lot of this healthy correction uncovered a lot of buying support here at around 22 grand. So now the question is, is this thing going to go to going to going to break through the 25 area and go to 30 or 35 and continue this rally or um is it going to roll over? I don't

58:53 know. But I'm I but I but in the tariff discussion in the beginning of this podcast or this market report, here we are. there's going to be margin compression as the US forces foreign companies to eat the tariffs and so where there they were where companies were running 60% gross margins making sneakers which is an abomination they should be making 10 12% gross margins and with a and 5% net margins on commodity like sneakers I'm not saying just pick pulling this these numbers out of the back of my ass but like when you see anybody other than like a major chip manufacturer like Nvidia with gross

59:40 margins above 60%. You have an unbalanced market that I'm sorry like someone's getting bought by that. And I'm not just talking about it's either an early growth company that's trying to um that's trying to establish a new market and is successfully establishing a new market in product. They absolutely deserve their 60% growth margins when they're the only when they're the first mover and the only one in the space. But I'm talking about like develop Like you're not a you know Nike is not a first mover in freaking sneaker wear. If they're making good margins on that or or there's an Indian knockoff company making good margins on knockoffs Nike sneakers and they're making 60% like that's a currency thing. When someone's drinking our milkshake, them. It's just that

1:00:27 simple. 30% tariff the that company's now gonna be making 20% gross margins and we're going to capture that revenue for the American consumer. That's the way this that's the way this is working. That's what we're seeing in the early data. So I would factor that in to whether or not you you know you think this is going to go higher or not. If I'm the person who sent this to me, you know, I've got exposure to the Indian stock market and I don't know, say you bought, you know, the Nifty50 at 156 or even the breakout here like 175. You're up 40%. You should probably take half off the table. You got a double top. At the very least, it may take three attempts to break through to onto the other side, right? So,

1:01:12 triple tops tend to fail. Double tops tend triple tops tend to succeed. Double tops tend to fail. tend to, not always, tend to. So, and then here's the thing, and if you're not comfortable with that, if you think it's going to go higher and you're convinced of that, well, then, you know, let it ride or you could pull money off the table and then it breaks through. What do you lose? You lose that little bit that you can, you know, you sold at 252 or 25 and it breaks through to 26 and then makes a run to 30. Well, then you buy the breakout at 26 and all you've lost is the 800 or the,000 points and you're going to capture another four or six before this thing finally rolls over. And so, you didn't make it all and you you know, but you you still capture

1:01:58 90% of it. If you're capturing 90% of of a run, you're doing better because you remember all you want is the middle 60% of any trend. You leave 20% at the bottom and 20% at the top for the god agreed. most successful, one of the most successful traders in the history of the universe. That's how he made his fortune. So, you know, pigs get slow, pogs get that, pigs get slaughtered. So, um we But what's interesting about this rally is that not only did we get the 60% you get this 60% rally from 15 to 25 in nominal terms, but you also got strong rally in the Indian rupee by another 30%. So, this is in dollar terms. This is like this is like 150% move.

1:02:45 Pretty impressive. And that will reverse because up market with strong currency doesn't tend to last. It quickly turns into weak market with weak currency. So, okay. But when you can get it in foreign markets, that's the that's the winner. That's a great trade. And if you're in that masleto and I'm using the and I'm tweaking my the juice in the audience because I love using that. I could say Bob which is even worse right because I don't know I'm not sure which worse at this point you know invoking the Jews or invoking the British whatever limeies. Um all right let's uh let's talk about in

1:03:33 inflation. So here's your So right around right before COVID, we got out of demand pull inflation. Credit market started to take over. We moved into commodity cost push inflation. And directionally the fourmonth rise in the the aggregate fourmonth rolling average rise in CPI versus monthly closing price of gasoline looks pretty looks pretty predictive. It's actually gotten more predictive as time has gone on, which tells you we're actually in a more commodity sensor sensitive environment than we were during this Um, we already have the this is the current price of gasoline this month. So, where do we expect inflation to come in next

1:04:20 month? So, do you expect Powell to cut rates? Will he have a good reason to cut rates? No, that's the problem. It's right here. It's right there in the data. You want data? There's the data. Um, here's some other data. US dollar futures market. Um, the the the sofur futures market has moved six% six basis points in the last 24 hours towards there being no rate all two rate cuts this year. It's trading about 386 yesterday. US dollar index is up strong. It's probably booking um bucking close to 99 while we're talking because the euro has fall well below 116. Yuan is flat. The yen is pushing back towards 150 and the British pound is d is easily going to be below 134 by the time I'm done recording this morning. US German

1:05:06 10ear spread is the lagard got scared last week and it was hit 167 and she's moving markets around uh doing her thing. Um the long end of the US yield curve is getting sold again. Uh we're seeing uh the 30-year pushing up towards 5% but again it needs to be 5% if you want to actually get people to buy it. But let's let's see what happens when it gets to 5%. Every time it gets to 5% it seems to uncover a lot of simple bank buying. Uh Japanese 10-year yield and the 30-year are both breaking higher while the yen weakens. Bonds are being sold, currencies weakening, stock market is kind of weak. Japan is in a in a in a tenuous position and there's a lot of political turmoil. Bashiba is running

1:05:51 into a lot of trouble. Um but he's got a minority government and he's got neocons that are desperately trying to get him out of power. So on pure uncertain political uncertainty alone in Japan at this point I I would expect the Japanese markets to be weak and is you know turning out to be exactly what um one of the former members of the community um pegged him to be which is you know a uh a classific academic and not really a not a risk taker not a very strong player. So it is what it is what we got. Japan right now is in flux and if the sheiba can

1:06:37 you know nail stuff down make a deal with Trump and all that. Scott Bess met with him the other day. I don't know what happened but they met. So Japan is clearly important to the United States um plans going forward. Um so we'll see. And gasoline is sitting right around 216 and copper after the tariff went on um popped to 560 a pound and now it's it's holding at 553. That's going to spur a massive massive investment boom in the copper. So copper stocks are going to do really well going forward. We should start to see these prices show up copper earnings and copper minor earnings in the next couple next couple of quarters. Last thing I talk about is the Dow. Um, we had a breakout on the Dow up to a triple top, really strong, and now we're

1:07:25 looking at potential for the Dow to throw a two bar reversal against that. If we close below that low right there, there's your homework for the week. Um, or for the next couple days, there will be a market report on Sunday. We'll be back to normal schedule on Sunday. Um the Dow because it's run into resistance is now underperforming everything basically for the month of June simply because it's run into overhead resistance whereas other markets are not in technically difficult positions uh for but the interesting thing about about on balance though Dow's up nearly 4% for the for the year the Euro stocks 50 is now down to under up 10% for the year that is ex moving exactly where I would expect to go. The DAX is still off

1:08:11 the charts because where else is European money going to go that it's not allowed to leave. So, but we really get any kind of war from them, stock markets in Europe are going. So, I don't know what Europe is thinking at this point, but as far as I'm concerned, this almost feels like the crackup boom in Europe. Everybody keeps talking about the crackup, the classic necessian crackup boom in terms of the United States, but isn't it more obvious that it would be it would happen in Europe first, especially when they go on a stimulus binge? They also announced it today that by 2027 or 2028, they want to have a European Commission budget with over tax

1:08:56 and spend authority with over a$1.1 trillion$ 1.17 trillion budget. Huh? Like they're moving absolutely moving towards um full fiscal and political integration in Europe and every day that Jerome Pal is interest rates at four and a half%. He makes that outcome or less likely. So that's my take on it. You're free to disagree. All right, I'm out. You guys be well. You take care. We'll talk soon. Keep your stick on the ice.