[MS] 데이터센터 취소의 진실...MS가 현명한 이유 (EP.2) | 고태훈 | 장재창 | 미장원

0:00 In fact, it seems that Microsoft is not the only one looking for the next big opportunity in AI. OpenAI, Google, Meta, and competing products from companies like Elon Musk's XA are all having an impact across the board, but beyond just chat, the year-long effort to transform the web from click-based to agent-based seems to be creating a new competitive landscape. Big techs across the board are increasing these investments, and even Microsoft recently canceled some of its data center contracts. It seems like a somewhat opposing trend, but I wonder if the market is experiencing an oversupply phenomenon, or if they have given up on investing or if there is a delay. What do you think? yes. yes. Well, this

0:49 is a situation where the line has been clearly drawn that this is not a direction to reduce the overall Kepax. Since the size of Keppex is still maintained, I think they are judging that it has not reached the point of overinvestment. Nonetheless, some contract cancellation rights have been introduced compared to other cloud service providers. It was later revealed that some of the data centers that were supposed to be part of OpenAI were being transferred to the Stargate project, so some of them could be canceled. However, since there have been very few cases of such large-scale cancellations, the market reaction has been somewhat different. I think this is just Microsoft throttling the speed a bit . Unlike other big tech CEOs, CEO Satya Nadella is constantly concerned about improving software efficiency . So, what I'm worried about

1:34 is, if you look at the domestic memory semiconductor industry in 2018, in fact, as the cloud market really flourished in 2018, Amazon bought memory semiconductors all at once for use in data centers, and that kind of thing happened, and in 2018, Samsung Electronics' profits hit an all-time high of 58.8 trillion won in operating profit. But then it took a sharp turn in 2019. But what happens? Then, as Kubernetes, one of the virtualization technologies, developed significantly, a software technology emerged that allows one to use the same memory as 10 . So, if you listen to what Microsoft keeps talking about in conference calls, they're thinking about that a lot . Right now, in order to make sure that the data center is not overflowing when the current hardware is used as efficiently as possible,

2:21 there are parts that are too overflowing that are being reorganized and some speed adjustments are being made, so in fact, other companies are not showing that feeling at all and are saying that the demand for AI is now much higher than the supply . This comment is similar to Microsoft's, but in terms of the fact that they talk about efficiency behind it, I think Microsoft is thinking about this a bit . okay. Our CEO told us about Satya Nadella, but when you think of Microsoft, you think of Bill Gates and then Steve Balmora. And now, with the appointment of Satya Adela as CEO, we are once again facing a major change. Internally, we are receiving positive feedback that we have shifted the closed organizational culture centered on CEO competition

3:08 in a more inclusive and open direction . Also, the driving force that has driven Microsoft to reach $2.5 trillion in market capitalization in just 7 or 8 years is the CEO, who is not a popular CEO like Elon Musk or Jensen Huang. Satya Nadella is said to have revived the sinking Microsoft . What do you think his arrival means for Microsoft today ? Oh, at that time, in 2013, MS was going downhill, but now it's been talked about so much that it saved them, so I do n't really need to explain it. I think it was a very necessary ability to keep employees from fighting each other and

3:55 things like that . But if you ask what kind of abilities a CEO who will lead a large company in the future should have, I think you should actually look at Apple. You have to look at Apple. yes. What's impressive about Tim Cook is that he's not a technology person. Oh, right? Yes, because this guy was a finance guy, he was in the highest margin company. It's actually amazing that a company of that size can make that kind of margin, but the person who discovered it and created it is you. But what I'm saying is, if you ask what the future holds, these days, companies are like this. In the past, there was a C-level, a CEO, and then a CIIO, but now there are

4:41 companies that know the CTO but don't know the CIIO, and even the CEO does n't know the name, but the CTO is good. Yes, that's right. Sometimes the CTO acts as a frontman. First and foremost, it's very important. The reason why Apple was disappointing again this time, as I said earlier, is because the business divisions did not agree on some aspects of the artificial intelligence model, and I think they did not adjust this in the menu. There are always going to be clashes between departments. That department, I'm talking about a very large department here . At such times, from the CEO's perspective, people like Satya Adele and Tim need to look ahead and lend a helping hand to certain departments in some ways and enable each other to do what they can. In that respect, Apple is a bit disappointing this time, and Microsoft,

5:27 in that respect, is the same person who was able to push for the cloud-first thing I mentioned earlier. Even though he wasn't someone who went all the way toward technology, those kinds of things will become the ability to grow large companies further, so you need an eye to read the future technology market for structural growth. At least up until now, Satya Adele has had that. Oh, you think Satya Nadel is a better candidate than Tim Cook . That's how it's been so far. All right. Could Satya Nadella be Microsoft's long-term savior ? Yes, yes. Well, actually, Satya Nadella is almost like the founder of Microsoft. As the CEO mentioned earlier, the

6:13 Cloud Post was first put forward after Satya Nadella took office in 2014, and if you look at Microsoft's sales growth since then, sales have grown every year except for 2016. So profits have also continued to grow . So, because it showed perfect growth in terms of financial statements and also achieved structural improvement, Microsoft moved from an on-premise model to a cloud, and what was important was that it eventually moved to a subscription business model, so profit stability greatly increased. Meanwhile, while the valuation that Microsoft saw was between 10 and 15 times in the early 2010s, it has now risen to the 30 times level. So, the reason we can increase valuation like this is because we have improved our will to profit. The leadership that Annadella demonstrated was not only that she brought harmony to the employees, but

7:03 also that she was very good at running the business itself. For those of us who invest and listen to the CEOs' voices through conference calls and follow up on the context, I think it would be good to listen to CEO Satyanara's conference call at least once. Of course, the accent is Indian English, so it might be a little difficult to understand, but he speaks accurately. There was a time last fall when Microsoft's cloud growth rate was slightly declining. But what we talked about back then was that the facilities we had invested in had not yet been paid off, so we said that demand would start to increase in two or three quarters when the facilities we had invested in were paid off. But when visionaries like

7:49 Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg talk about these things, there are often cases where the numbers don't quite match up. There are cases where the timing is wrong, the numbers don't match, or the answers are a bit abstract, but what CEO Satyadella was talking about was revealed right away in the last earnings announcement. In the previous quarter, Azure growth rate fell to 31%, but recently it has risen back up to 35% . So, because this is ultimately showing the appearance of a CEO who keeps his promises, when I listen to the conference calls of Comprusco and Big Tech, I actually trust CEO Satya Nadella's conference calls the most. Now, other CEOs are once again reminded that Visionary is a company that will grow like this in the future, and in that way, they are differentiated. So, I think

8:35 CEO Satya Nadella is playing a very important role because I think that if he were to step down, the stock price could be adjusted significantly . hmm. Yes, I'm not a bluffing CEO. yes. Yes, that's right. I would like to see a CEO who truly keeps his promises continue to get some praise from the public . MS stock is at an all-time high right now, so is it the current performance or the overall future growth expectations for the company? I'm also curious to know if there are any points that you could think about in relation to performance. If we look at the whole picture from a slightly higher perspective as an investor, I do

9:23 n't think that it is a stable and profitable section to have a clear weight on M7, also known as Magni Vicente 7, as before. Of course, there are differences within the M7. So, in the past, you had to look at all of M7 together, but now I think you have to divide it into three or four within M7, but before that, from the investor's perspective, there are many ETFs that only invest in M7 . So, there is a lot of leverage. But is that likely? I don't think so. If I talk only about the actual year, up until 2024, if the performances of M7 were 65%, the net profit increase rate was 10% excluding M7, so if you look at the net profit increase rate as SP 500, excluding seven, the rest showed a 10% performance improvement, and if you combine only these seven to 65%, it would be like this, but in the case of 2025, M7 24%,

10:13 you M7 24%, and then if you go to 2025, it's reversed. yes. yes. What about the remaining 493 ? It may not be right to compare this to that, but what I'm saying is that things are changing now. There are several reasons for this, including the M7, and the tariffs, which are constant. When I look at such variables, I think that the stability and profitability that we had when we had the M7 uniquely will no longer exist . And yes. If you are thinking of investing again in the future, you should focus more on the reverse ratio. Well, I think the US is an exception, so we

11:00 need to reflect a lot of broken parts in our portfolio . The investment consulting firm I work for has been focusing on the United States for about six years. It's almost always 80%, but I don't think so now. The thing is, everyone in the US keeps saying M7 M7, but we don't. Of course, if you invest in the US, you should invest in companies with leadership in this technology, rather than the stability of M7 , yes, that kind of industry. So in the past, when investing 80% in the US, you would have done M7 and things like that, yes, you would have focused on large-cap stocks, but now, if you have to reduce the proportion and invest in the US,

11:48 I don't think there is a reason to do big-cap stocks like M7. Oh, I see. I feel like the CEO's words dilute our search for some fun points a bit, but in fact, compared to Palantir or Tesla, it's not easy to expect event momentum or things like that right now. I think performance is important in supporting the current rise . What stood out most to you in your recent performance ? yes. Of all the things I just mentioned, the most important thing is that the growth rate has now picked up again. So, just look at the growth rates of the major cloud service providers over the last quarter . So, the Azure growth rate, Microsoft's growth rate based on Azure, came out to 35%. It was only 31% before. But now,

12:35 in the case of smaller Google Cloud providers, the share has dropped from 30% to 28% . In the case of the largest company, Amazon, the share fell from 19% to 17% . So, I think that because the difference in growth rates is now apparent, we have no choice but to focus more on Microsoft . In fact, we believe that the parts that kept this performance promise were important . And now that these companies are all investing in data centers, if there is excess demand and insufficient supply as they have been talking about, then performance growth will once again go through a tunnel round. So from then on, I think they will be able to grow again through cloud- based services. As the CEO said, M7 is

13:20 not going in the same direction anymore, so we are looking at their changes a lot and dynamically shifting the proportion of nasal sounds . Now, I think those parts are very important. It may be time for a reverse investment . Well, even between M7, level changes can happen at any time, so , Microsoft's US Redmond headquarters. We held 14 development conferences there. The title is Build 2025, and here they announced the release of a new AI agent specialized in coding, the Godb Copier Agent . This time, the coding-specialized agent seems to be targeting the B2B market with a bit more focus. Big tech companies are rushing to release

14:05 AI agents specialized for their work, and I think they've decided that the coding agent is the agent with the most demand from companies looking to improve work efficiency. It seems that Microsoft is continuing to focus on some business focusing on B2 as a governmental focus . However, there is an assessment that the success or failure of Hyangho depends on the B2C market. I wonder how much of a chance MS can have in this area . yes. Well, B2C services are actually an area that not only Microsoft but all big tech companies need to think hard about. As I mentioned last time, Apple is having a hard time releasing the Apple Intelligence Service because if they release it carelessly, they

14:53 might lose the self-reliance they have in the B2C market, so they are really worried. If we think about it from the consumer's perspective and think about what kind of AI service we would pay for, there are bound to be many people who say, "There doesn't seem to be anything worth paying for." Now, from that perspective, I personally think that development of B2C services may require a little more time. If we look at this from Microsoft's perspective, it is natural that they should continue to develop agentic AI based on COPILER, and they should gradually increase the fees there. Other than that, as I mentioned earlier, Microsoft also owns Xbox, which now has about 40 million subscribers, and Ring .

15:51 Wouldn't it be possible to see some level of success if we add AI to services like this and create a new subscription service, or if we strengthen the application of AI in services that are already open to B2C? Well, along these lines, Microsoft was actually trying to make Apple's browser the default search engine . The fact that these efforts are continuing is something that Bitek is well aware of. I think it would be good to look at all of this together because I think that in order to really have hegemony and grow to the next level here, we have to dominate the B2C service market. hmm . All right. Representative. B2C Scholarship I think this is an area where expectations are somewhat high in the market, but as of now, it doesn't seem like there's any sign of success yet. How would you evaluate this area?

16:37 There are certain steps that go into making that technology worthwhile. When I said that AI-related technologies go like this, infrastructure hardware first, then B2B hardware, then B2B software, and finally B2C software, that's not a simple definition. It has a business basis within it. That is, until B2C makes money, if we talk about time, if we go through these stages quickly now, the period from B2B software to B2C software making money was the longest in the past era of technological revolution. I'm saying it doesn't come easily. Then, if you look at the past, the Internet era, B2C companies ended up being the last and benefited the longest

17:25 . If you were to ask where the B2C companies leading the technological revolution were, it would be Magnificent Three. hmm. The biggest beneficiaries of the technological revolution ahead. yes yes. B2C company. So the reason why that was possible was because smartphones came out. As everything became possible with smartphones, platform companies benefited the most . Then, in my opinion, the last B2C of the development of technology in this era of artificial intelligence is still some time and I will only talk about profitability . There is still a lot of room for individuals to use it and for companies to generate sales or operating profits, so B2C will ultimately benefit the most from the current investment. But does

18:12 n't Microsoft have much B2C? From my perspective, this is not the time to talk about it . It's still far away. You have to consider what business is making money now. You can't invest in stocks now for a business that will make money in 10 years . As for how far B2C needs to go, what is needed between now that artificial intelligence is becoming very commonplace is something called a form factor, and that means a device like a smartphone needs to come out. What's happening now is that I just see it as a car. All AI services will be included in it, and this time, I think the comprehensive device that can use all services will probably be a car, but that might not be right. This is completely baseless. But in order for

18:57 B2C to get to the point where it can produce results in AI, it needs to go through this huge competition, and then it needs to go down to the lowest level, and then there needs to be a device that can easily use all these services, which is what I called a form factor. It may sound ridiculous, but I can't invest in MS because I don't have B2C right now. I do n't think that's the case at all, and if I were to talk about something, I would say that I have Office 365, but I'm not at the point where I can consider that for investment purposes right now. Let me say this. It's not a particularly important point to watch right now . yes yes. I think that's what you're saying. Now, for the investors of Seohak Chemistry, I would like to

19:44 ask you the most noteworthy question. I wonder if Microsoft's stock price is appropriate right now, and if it is a stock worth buying even if it is a little expensive . I would appreciate it if you could tell me about some effective investment strategies, such as short-term and long-term risks . Oh, always, now, M7 companies, I think you need to continue to rebalance at the portfolio level, but the current Microsoft is not so much an active investment as it is a liquidation of upside risk, that is, you need to take an investment proportion at the level of liquidation of the fact that you were not able to keep up when it went up a lot. Microsoft's share of the SP 500 is roughly 6 to 7 percent . Now, I think that Microsoft needs to take on that much weight to eliminate upside risk, because in the process of expanding AI services, we

20:30 don't have an exact answer, and the competition is very fierce, so Microsoft, which is responding appropriately, is also thinking about speed control, as I mentioned earlier, so wouldn't it be possible to take on a little more favor in terms of increasing profits ? I was wondering if we could get this time a little faster . But now, the risk factor may actually be more about how quickly growth in other areas increases . So, as I mentioned, we think that physical AI is very important, but in the autonomous driving and humanoid robot markets, there is still much more growth to be had than the growth that has occurred in the cloud and AI . Since the market has not yet fully blossomed, the upside risk could actually be greater when the market grows, so the

21:18 fact that Microsoft is unable to do this could be seen as risky from a portfolio perspective, so I think it would be better to build a portfolio with some diversification . yes. There are a number of options you've mentioned, but it seems clear that this is a pretty reliable middleman . Because the winning percentage has been very stable and good so far. Sir, if you could give us some advice on a valid investment strategy, what would you say ? Among the things that investors should consider, we choose stocks that have the expected effects even if we have to go as far as stocks. Since we are a company that invests mainly in industry ETFs, we always tell individual clients and investors that the stocks are highly volatile and

22:03 the rewards can be good, but the risk of losing money is too high, so invest in those industries. From that perspective, rather than investing in Microsoft as a stock, if you choose an ETF that invests only in American software, for example, among American ETFs, the number one stock is Microsoft. yes. Anyway, it is the best and most important item. But for me, this kind of Microsoft holding is better. hmm . If you want to make an investment that goes as far as stocks, I don't think there's a reason to do it with the current level of stability and growth potential that Microsoft provides . If you want to go to a certain level, I

22:55 think you need to have something that can help you go to a different level than your current level. That's right, when a new adventurer comes out. In that respect, I think the prices that Microsoft will be renewing from now on will be very reasonable and not surprising. I think it's likely that stocks that will maintain the top market cap consistently will now be like that, and stocks that will surprise people at their current level are not the ones that have enough stability, so from the perspective of investing in stocks, if you're looking for stability, there does n't seem to be a reason to invest in stocks like Microsoft. Conversely, if you go with the return on investment that I mentioned earlier, even in the case of Palantir, which is leading the current technology, the reason why it's supported is because it's a software stock.

23:44 Since that is an area that will be leading for quite a long period of time, wouldn't it be better to choose that type of investment now ? If I were you, I would say that these days, the representative stocks of industries that are actually changing the structure of the world, I'm not talking about coins these days, but things like stable coins, I think, will create a trend that hasn't existed in the past few decades. Then, in order for the US to become safe, it seems like it needs to come up with a system called stable coin to solve the national debt problem, the weak dollar problem, and so on. If that happens, wouldn't the rise at a different level come from that side? So, when it comes to stocks, I choose them with that kind of ratio . If I want my assets to continue to grow at least as much as the index, I would

24:33 think about investing in something like software, like Microsoft. okay. In order to achieve a new level of change, I think we need to show the market some aspects of ourselves as a game changer . I think that way, we can build up some expectations from aggressive investors . After synthesizing the two statements, I think that since Microsoft has always played the role of a middleman well, a strategy of holding a small amount of volume within a relatively large table, such as an ETF, will always be effective . Today, Inmost Investment CEO Jang Jae-chang and SF Plus Asset Management Headquarters Manager Ko Tae- won talked about Microsoft, which is still doing too well to be considered boring . I've been

25:21 diligently looking for all the hidden gems and fun things about Microsoft. Next time, we will make sure to clean up the surrounding areas of your investment at our beauty salon . thank you