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0:00 Is 2025 the end of MSTY? We have insider selling, we have lower implied volatilities, and we have smaller distributions. All of this and more will be covered in this video, including two YieldMax ETFs that pay monthly that I think will outperform MSTY in 2025. And that's saying something. It is up relatively well over the last 6 months, but compared to its 2024 performance, it's nowhere near. Now, if you had bought at inception, you're still up quite nicely according to our drip calculator, but I want to know, are we seeing the downfall of MSTY? There's a lot we're going to cover, but I hope you guys do enjoy. If you're interested in YieldMax ETFs in passive income, in making money in the stock market, you are in the right place. So, don't forget to like and
0:45 subscribe and join that community of over 18,000 active ETF investors. Thank you so much for watching. Let's roll that intro. If you are a fan of the channel or of MSTY, I'm sure you are familiar with this website. It's the YieldMax website with the MSTY page. The distribution rate, they have it at 91.61% based off of the last distribution. I will say for those that might not know, although I'm guessing most of you know MSTY, it's the MSTR option income strategy ETF. And I recommend checking out their website. We're not going to go into all of the details because I've done it so many times for this ETF because it's so wildly popular. This distribution rate of 90% plus is why.
1:32 Now, it's difficult to maintain a rate this high without significant NAV erosion, but they have done a pretty phenomenal job since the inception of the fund. A lot of that due to MSTR's trading history. So, we're going to cover a couple things in this video and some new funds from YieldMax that I think might outperform Misti for 2025, but only time will tell. So, I do hope you guys enjoy. But I do want to say this is not an MSTY hate video. I love this fund. I wish I had boughten in the first time I saw it, but I did not believe the results and it definitely proved me wrong and I sat on the sidelines for far too long. I just think things are slowing down. And I want to be realistic as investors and not fall in love with just one ETF, but fall in love with making profit no matter what the underlying ETF is. We have to make
2:18 those returns, right? That is the goal of the stock market. But again, MSTY is something I still hold. I'm not planning on selling anytime soon. So, let's get into the details. One of the main things I think are pushing people away from MSTY is the falling distributions. Now, I'm going to scroll down. We can see it has been paying distributions since early 2024, since April. Now, we've seen it range all over the place from highs of $442 per share all the way down to the lows of about $1.34. And this is why people are getting a little bit worried. It used to pay into the fours during this time of the market. There was a lot of uncertainty. We have October, November. This was right before the US election for anyone outside of the US. and there's just more volatility because we don't know who's
3:04 going to win. Depending on who wins, it makes a massive difference on the underlying companies that we're tracking, right? So, it can it can be a really big deal and it usually is. So, I definitely think that that played a role, but we have since then seen this thing just pay out less and less and I'm upset about this. I'm not devastated. All good things must come to an end. I again I don't think MSTY is coming to an end, but we have seen the crazy returns of four $4 a share in distributions. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon. And there's a number of reasons for this. The main one being the implied volatility. I will say I was checking around on a couple websites for the predicted dividend for July, which if you are watching at any point after, it's early in July. We have not been
3:49 announced the distribution yet. And I'm estimating it's going to be the lowest we've ever seen. I shouldn't say I'm estimating. I'm saying every resource I've seen is estimating it being about a$120. And that is not good. It's really not good. And that yield might be fine. It might be, you know, average, but people don't like that. And MSTY is not known for being average. So, I definitely think tracking these distributions has been very helpful. We've seen it rise and fall. And I'm really interested. Are you guys actively watching a lot of ETFs? Are we tracking MSTY every time it pays? Are we tracking the weeklies, the monthlies? If you'll let me know down in the comments, that would be super super helpful because I like knowing what you guys are doing because I track everything for YouTube and I've been doing YouTube for so long, I forget what
4:35 I would track if I just owned them all. But let me know down in the comments, what are you guys watching? Is distribution, is it still very, very important for you? Do we are we nervous when we see something lower? If MSTY did pay a dollar or even under $1, will we start selling? Let me know down in the comments. I would really appreciate it. But let's check out something very, very key in showing why these distributions are falling. I'm going to use a tool I've never used on my channel before, and that's Market Chameleon. I've used it in the background, but I've never put it up on screen. So, what we're going to look at is the implied volatility. So, I'm going to zoom in on this chart right here, and we'll slide to the side. Okay, it's over right here. Let me shrink myself down. And what we're looking at is the implied volatility. You can go current, you can go historical, and the implied volatility is the IV30 and this
5:21 is the green line. Now, there are some days where the implied volatility was absolutely crazy. November of 2024. And if you don't remember what MSTR was doing November of 2024, it was skyrocketing to all-time highs. Now, since then, we have not seen it reach those levels again, but we have consistently seen the implied volatility drop. Now I am not an expert on implied volatility but what I do know is we are going very low very very low implied volatility was over 100 on their score and we've fallen to below 50 and that is why the distributions are falling and it is why I am not thinking we are going to get a massive distribution this week. Now what does this mean long term? Well, we've seen implied volatility go up. We've seen it go down and of course MSTR
6:08 is tied to a lot of its holdings of Bitcoin. So what Bitcoin does is going to impact MSTR and then impact the implied volatility which will impact our distributions. So it's a long- winded way of saying all of these things are linked there. Well, they're linked one way, right? Because what happens with MSTY isn't going to affect Bitcoin. But this is really interesting. And when tracking all this stuff, I found it I I'm curious. I think that implied volatility and for those of you that write options more than I do, for those that are more in the options trading space, because we've seen massive growth with MSTR, in my opinion, and from my knowledge of implied volatility, that's going to lower the implied volatility because we definitely have companies that are big with high implied volatility like Tesla. But the more we see it grow, when this
6:54 thing was significantly cheaper, when there was a significantly smaller market cap, you have more ways to run, right? You can go up crazy, you can go down crazy. It's hard to do that now without moving millions of dollars on the daily or on the weekly. So, we're going to kind of continue to see that, I fear, if we keep seeing MSTR grow. Now, what could happen is MSTR could tank if crypto pulls back, if Bitcoin slows way down and goes back down to 50,000, which I don't know if it's going to do. I'm not a crypto expert, but if that were to happen, we could see a bump in implied volatility, but some loss on the long synthetic calls. So, it's definitely an interesting space right now for MSTY. And I'm curious as to what you guys think. But, there is something that's scaring me a little bit that we need to track. And there's this app or website.
7:42 There's both. It's an app and a website that I've been dying to use. And I'm really excited to showcase it on the channel. I'm sure you guys have used it before. So, let's check it out. So, this is Quiver Quantitative. It is a really interesting website and app. And I actually found them on Tik Tok when they had significantly less followers and uh were less known than they are now. And what I loved about it is they have trackers that will track congressmen and women. And so you can actually track the speaker of the house. You can track is she still speaker of the house? I don't even know. I don't keep up with politics. You can track Nancy Pelosi. So you can track her trade specifically as well as all these other and Nancy Pelosi is not even the best. And this grinds my gears. Tangent. Just listen to me for one minute. I saw today I saw it on their Instagram. I think there was
8:27 someone in Congress or whatnot that bought a ton of PLTR before they got all their Department of Defense contracts and whatnot and they made a 90% return. And if you knew that they were going to get these contracts and you knew the stock was going to run, that is just unfair. It is insider trading. And I cannot believe that our government continues to allow this to happen. And they kind of just laugh at us. Anyways, rant over. I can't stand it. Everyone does it on both sides. So, don't come for me in the comments saying, "Oh, it's this person. It's that person." I read the top five, top 10 people that do it, and it's a slew of both, Democrats and Republicans. So, don't start arguing in the comments. They're all laughing at us while we argue with each other. Anyways, sorry about that. Got me really heated the other day. Ruined my day actually. I was very pissed off. But back into it. You can track all this stuff on here.
9:12 people actually create ETFs and pro and whole portfolios based off of what Congress people are are buying and selling. And I do think this is an interesting note. So we can see MSTR a ton of selling happened when this thing ran for the first time in 2024. And then less selling happened way at the top even, but there were some. So we're going to slide down. You can see a lot of stuff. And we can see the number of shares. So I don't really care if they're selling six shares. I don't really care once you get into the hundreds or into the thousands. That's something interesting. So, there is some hope because June 5, Patton Jared M, I'm guessing it's Jared M. Patton bought 5,000 shares. It doesn't say his position in the company, but some of the other ones do. The rest, there's a lot of selling going on. Nothing near 5,000 shares. 500 from the EVP, general
9:58 counsel, yada yada yada. 3,000 purchased. Again, this was in June. June 5th, there's a lot of trading going on. June 5th, again, all over the place. And then some sales. And it's interesting because it looks like someone is selling consistently president and CEO, but not a lot of shares and then buying more. So, I don't know what the heck is going on, but I think it's really cool to use this to track. I did see some news that it's not showing on Quiver, so I don't know how valid it is. It's actually, let me pull it up. NASDAQ.com. This is where I found it. I had to go back and find it because I had closed it. Check this out. We have in the last three months, number of shares bought 25,000. Number of shares sold, 116,000. Last 12 months, 33,000 shares bought, 505,000
10:44 shares sold. And I was like, well, where is this on quiver? This, it just has so many trades. You have to track it down. But look at this. Carl J. Rickersonson sold 25,000 shares, then 26,000, and then 27,000 in a 3day span. And that is just one person. So you can see the selling, the buying. I don't know why they're so active. 10,000 shares purchased and then some s sold and some sold. It's interesting to track all this stuff and I recommend using Quiver if you are interested. But it's not the best sign for MSTR if we're seeing a ton of insider selling. This could mean a ton of things though. We saw a ton of insider selling right before it ran like mad. People could be reallocating their portfolios. they might be
11:30 not diversifying or they might be diversifying because if you are holding something and it runs 100% immediately like like for me specifically I held Tesla and it ran like crazy. I almost doubled my money, but then it started out as 5% of my portfolio and then was over 10. And I don't like having anything over 10% in one position in my portfolio. So, I had to sell some. And so, that is an option, but we're seeing a significant number of selling. And this could be due to the fact that the distributions are shrinking, implied volatility is lower, and MSTY is just not making a lot of the money that it used to because MSTR is just losing that implied volatility. So, I want to know what you guys think. But before you go, I'm going to prove to you that I am definitely still an MSTY fan. I'm just trying to be realistic. Let's check out
12:15 the long-term DRIP calculator. dividend channel.com. MSTY. We're going to go all the way back to didn't trade in 1995, but it's going to showcase since the beginning of the fund, since inception. Look at this. MSTY dividend reinvestment on. That's a key thing though because it's been trading. It was trading interesting at the beginning and then took off. If you had invested 10K on February 22nd of 2024, you would be up 287%. Almost 288%. Your 10K would be worth 38,000. Almost $39,000 in under a year and a half. Very, very, very impressive. With Drip not on, you'd still be up nicely. Your 10K would be worth $28,000 in the same time span. But what are my
13:02 thoughts? I mean, I don't think MSTY is going to see another record-breaking run. And the reason that you do so well with Drip on is cuz during this flat point when it wasn't doing a lot, but it was paying out decent dividends, you would be buying more and more shares at cheap. And then the price went nuts. So, I definitely do like MSTY, but there are two funds I want to look at really, really quickly that I think could outperform it in 2025. You knew I was going to pick PLTY. Look at it. Just look. I definitely like PLTY. I think it's perfect right now in the climate we're seeing PLTR in. It is hitting new all-time highs. The implied volatility is through the roof, just like what we saw with MSTY, right, when everything was going nuts. Now, these are very high risk still, but PLTY has been one that I've watched for quite a while. The
13:48 returns have been very solid, and PLTW, the weekly payer by Roundill, has been going absolutely ballistic, paying out huge numbers. PLTY itself, it is three times more expensive than MSTY. MSTY is currently in the low 20s. PLTY is in the 60s. So, there is something to note, but it paid out $7 a share and then $8 a share. Really picking up, which of course I love to see cuz I am just a fan of this ETF. But we have a different one that is new that I think you guys already know what I'm going to talk about, but we need to see it. We knew Ho Y. This is the Robin Hood option strategy, option income strategy ETF. Absolutely looking forward to this one. I'm really curious how the distributions are going to be. I'll be putting out news about it as soon as possible
14:33 because this one could really pick up fast. If you've been watching Robin Hood stock, it's been going ballistic as well and that is a key component for that higher implied volatility. So, I'm really interested. Let me know your thoughts down below. PLTY or HOI or MSTY. Of the three, which ones are we taking? Because there's I mean HOI is risky. We haven't even seen it drop a distribution yet, but I am really curious how it's going to perform. And hold up, compared to the other two. PLTY versus MSTY is a harder choice for me personally, but let me know what you guys think in the comments. And thank you guys for 18,000 subscribers. You guys are amazing. Appreciate you guys oh so much. You have no idea. If you like this video, chances are you're going to like these popping up on your screen right now, including my challenge with every YieldMax ET. I shouldn't say every
15:19 top 10 YieldMax ETFs I bought for 2025 to track their progress. Check them out. Let me know what you think. And don't forget to like and subscribe. Hope to see you in the next video.
