Raoul Pal - "THIS IS What' I'm Afraid Is Coming for Bitcoin & Crypto in 2025..." New Prediction

0:00 There is nobody who's going to predict the exact price and people ask me what is my projection. What is my prediction as if that's going to help you? It's not. Let's say up a lot. Do I think Bitcoin 3xes from here? Yes, almost without question. But for some reason, everybody gets messed up in this. Wait till the signals from the macro tell you and then we'll see where the price is. My altcoins aren't Just look at the chart. Look at the chart. Look at the chart. Look at the business cycle chart. Look at the dollar. Generally, it gives you all you need to know. People often ask for projections

0:47 to help them make better decisions, but according to Real Vision CEO R Pal, they usually don't. And here's why. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a reliable tendency to three times or more within 12 to 18 months after each hinging. This pattern held in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Each time leading to new all-time highs as monetary expansion and market momentum aligned. This cycle appears no different. Global M2 money supply is rising again. The US dollar index has dropped to 97 and bond yields are pulling back. These are classic signals of easing liquidity which typically drives capital into scarce high beta assets like Bitcoin. Yet many

1:34 investors delay action because they get distracted by noise, short-term volatility, or mainstream narratives that lag behind the actual data. As Pal and other macro analysts point out, by the time those signals become obvious, the move is already well underway. Make sure to stick around until the end of the video as RP Pals down exactly how these macro signals tie into Bitcoin's potential upside and why most investors will miss it entirely. I mean, look at these. I'm just beautiful charts. Um, total market cap of crypto excluding Bitcoin and ETH. Beautiful correction. Beautiful. For some reason, this makes you all feel like It doesn't to me. I like it because we've got the the next phase to

2:20 come. Everyone's like, "We don't deserve it. Won't get it." People don't think they they they're going to get nice things. You'll be fine. Next one. Um, total market cap and excluding top five. This is real odds. Stunning chart. I mean, I don't know in what world this is not going to play out. We already think the cycle extends to 2026 at least to the first quarter. Let's see what the dollar does. We'll probably push it out for another quarter. Um things will go higher than you expect. That's my general consensus. We're coming dominance rising wedge. I don't like when Julian he put these together. I don't like it when he uses these spike charts. I would have just drawn it through that. Either way,

3:06 um I said here that I think it's put in the high. It then sneaks in a new high. I still think it's topping and I think Bitcoin dominance collapses. When it collapses, it drives altcoin season. I know nobody believes in altcoin season, but over time, Bitcoin is less dominant. Why? Because people find use cases for other tokens over time. Interesting enough, this is before smart contracts were really a big thing. Smart contracts become a big thing. The market has a bare market. Smart contracts become a more important part of the ecosystem as do new tokens such as Salana and then we have the the bare market where people just p money into this. It's all driven by the business cycle. It's going to run. This is going to be the longest one ever because they can. Right. when banana the most annoying question in the

3:51 world because we've given you let's go back again just to reiterate you um dimwitted ninnies dimwitted nin here's the chart went banana we said it was here we said phase one phase one correction phase two we're in the middle of it because you've had this sideways move and your alts have gone down like this and your alts are not at all time highs and Bitcoin is you're losing your I can't help you. You've got to understand the structure of markets. You've got to be able to take the volatility and please. Your asset allocation does matter and you've probably got it wrong. Um, and I've tried to help you with that, too. Okay. Old coin season. Percentages of assets

4:36 excluding stable coins outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period. This is why you all feel like and you're getting salty as hell online with me. Because when banana your tokens aren't going up, Bitcoin maximalists are like, "Yeah, I'm I'm in the middle of the banana zone. Everything's fine." But you're not. So, what this says is when it gets to these levels, it's oversold. And every banana zone that's happened to 2019, 2021, 2022, 23 are all driven when it gets oversold. So here we are with the M2 chart with this chart with the ISM. That's what a macro framework is and how it will help you. Investor frustration usually peaks right before the next move begins. Not because

5:23 the market is failing, but because most don't understand where they are in the cycle. When altcoins are down and prices are moving sideways, people often assume something's broken. But this phase where sentiment collapses and allocations feel wrong is exactly what happens in the middle of a healthy cycle. Historical data shows it clearly. Similar setups in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 all marked local bottoms in altcoin performance. This disconnect often comes from poor positioning and emotional allocation. While Bitcoin may appear steady or even bullish, most other assets remain suppressed, leading many to believe the opportunity has passed. But when the market becomes this

6:08 deeply oversold relative to Bitcoin, it's often the setup for a major rotation layer in rising global M2, weakening ISM data, and a declining dollar, and the macro environment begins to tilt in favor of risk assets. What many interpret as stagnation is actually a structural reset. Those who lack patience during this phase typically miss the full upside when the cycle resumes. Be a builder of your own framework. Be humble and also be accepting that not everybody's going to be right. There is nobody who's going to predict the exact price. There will be somebody, but it won't be the person you're following. And people ask me what is my projection? What is my

6:55 prediction? Because of as if that's going to help you. It's not. Let's say up a lot. Do I think Bitcoin 3xes from here? Yes. Almost without question. But for some reason, everybody gets messed up in this. Wait till the signals from the macro tell you and then we'll see where the price is. Yes. a global macro investor in pro macro. We do share some of that GMI more so because people are more responsible with price targets and they're not targets. They're like here's our contextualized understanding of where we think this thing could go and here's three bands based on standard deviations. That's how I kind of think

7:41 about the world. Okay, next chart. Bitcoin cycle cycle top finder. There are people like, oh, it's it's hidden cycle top. Uh, just block them because they're morons. Um, Bitcoin cycles. These are the cycles. I keep explaining this to you. When banana zone told you when it started, started it over here. We had the correction zone. We explained the correction zone. The next thing we're in is this phase phase two of the banana zone before the correction. We're not there yet. We had a bit of sideways for a couple of weeks and you guys lose your minds. I can't help you. Do you remember this chart? I keep bringing this chart up because you forget it immediately. You look away and go, "Well, somebody else said that the market's going to go down tops and

8:27 somebody else said my altcoins aren't." Just look at the chart. Look at the chart. Look at the chart. Look at the business cycle chart. Look at the dollar. Generally, it gives you all you need to know and everything else is noise and you get so emotional about the noise. I get it. I get emotional, too. My P&L goes up and down. I don't look at my P&L. I have no idea what it is. I zero idea. Literally zero. Haven't checked my P&L in four months. So, I have no idea what it is. But I get bored when the market goes sideways. Engagement goes down. People answer fun. Then it goes down a bit more and then people start getting really angry and salty and went banana and this

9:14 and this and this. That's kind of a signal like we're towards the end of the thing. Don't let your emotions rule it. The these things take time. The people who get really rich in crypto are in the space for a long time. They're not trading it. And you think that some bloke on Twitter who trades stuff is going to answer your questions. No. Time answers your questions. if you just did nothing. But you you can't I've told you this h 100 times and you come back and go, "Well, I went down 80% blah blah blah blah." Just you need time. Compound returns take time. Did Warren Buffett trade his portfolio? No. I'm not calling myself Warren Buffett, even though I actually don't think he's he was as good as people say, but that's

9:59 a different question. All I'm saying is chill the out. So there's RP pal with his latest crypto outlook. And according to him, the most important thing investors can do right now is build their own framework, not rely on predictions, not chase price targets, not jump from one influencer to the next hoping for certainty. No one is going to call the exact top or bottom, not consistently, not reliably. Even seasoned macro analysts like Pal don't offer fixed price targets. They work with probabilities, ranges, and standard deviations. That's the level of thinking most investors need to adopt. The emotional damage comes when people abandon that process. One sideways week

10:47 and panic sets in. One dip and they assume the cycle is over. But the cycle hasn't changed. The chart hasn't changed. The macro hasn't changed. What's changed is sentiment. And that always happens in chop. People ignore the structure, ignore the signals, and let fear drive decisions. Then they wonder why they're always late to the move. The truth is, the ones who make life-changing gains in crypto aren't trying to time the perfect entry. They stay in long enough to let compounding do the work. They ignore the noise, accept the volatility, and trust the framework they've built. Time answers the questions. Not Twitter threads, not YouTube predictions, not daily candles.

11:32 Anyway guys, before we go, if you want to stay most upto-date on the crypto and Bitcoin world, subscribe to my daily 5-minute crypto newsletter. It's a concise resource for the latest expert outlooks, breaking news, and top onchain analysis trusted by over 90,000 subscribers for insightful crypto investment information. Don't miss out on the opportunity to stay informed in the crypto market. The link is in the description below. I hope you all enjoyed today's video and that it gave you some value. I'll see you all at the next one and as always, all the best.