Starmer Caught Up Epstein Scandal About To Fall; Russia Plans Kiev Odessa Offensives; UAE Standstill

0:00 Good day. Today is Thursday, 5th February 2026. And before I start this program, let me remind you again to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel. If once you've watched the video or whichever part of the video you want to watch, you decide that you like what you've heard and you wish to indicate that fact. Now today as I make this program we may be in the final days or final hours of the British Prime Minister Saki Starama. I say maybe but the overwhelming consensus in Britain today at least within the

0:45 British political class that is that there is no may about it. We in fact are now. I say that after an extraordinary um series of events culminating in a catastrophic dis debate catastrophic for V former debate in the House of Commons last night and with headlines all over the media today that talk about how um Starmmer's parliamentary party has given up on him. How his ministers have given up on him. How there is a sense that he

1:31 is no longer in control of the government. How he is in effect, as they say in Britain, in office but not in power and that all that is left is for someone to make the push for him to fall. Well, how has this been how has this happened? Well, the approximate answer is the Epstein scandal and the way in which it has finally reached Starmmer himself. Starmmer is not so far at least directly implicated in um Epstein's various activities. But his ambassador to Washington,

2:18 Peter Mandolson, most emphatically was on a scale that was kept for a very long time from the British people. Now, here I think it might be useful just to recap a little bit about the Mandles Starmer affair and to repeat again who exactly Peter Mandlesson was. As I've said in several programs, Mandlesson's background, history goes back to the 1980s. He's been a prominent politician in British Labor politics and indeed in British politics ever since. He um was twice a cabinet minister serving in Tony

3:03 Blair's governments. on both occasions he was forced to resign following scandals which I'm not going to discuss uh in this program suffice to say that both of them involved money at some level in the case of the first money that was actually paid or loaned to Peter Mandolson in the second case money that hovered in the background as he tried to do a favor for a very prominent Indian businessman who was also a billionaire just to say and of course he was also um an EU commissioner appointed to that post by Tony Blair and he was

3:48 also deputy prime minister um under Gordon Brown. So he was a consistently important figure throughout the period of new labor rule between 1997 and 2010. And then he was also very close to the former British prime minister, the Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron. And he was also apparently on good terms with George Osborne or so I believe. um George Osborne being of course uh David Cameron's chancellor, a finance minister and um Mandlesson apparently played a significant role in

4:34 running the remain campaign during the 2016 Brexit referendum. He was of course unsuccessful but that doesn't seem to have had much an of an effect on his subsequent political influence. Then he played a very very prominent role behind the scenes in the campaign to basically reverse Brexit by having a second referendum. Um, I've always disputed the expression that it was a second referendum. It was an attempt to rerun the first referendum all over again, but this time making sure that it would res it would have a different

5:20 result. Anyway, again, I don't want to re repeat all this old history, but he played a very very prominent role in all of that. He then played a very prominent role in seeking to undermine the leadership of the Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn. Um he worked through his protetéé, a figure within the Labour Party called Morgan Mweeny to first undermine Corbyn and then to elevate Kstarma to the leadership of the Labor Party and after Labour won the general election in 2024 and formed the

6:06 government and Karma became prime minister. Peter Mandlesson remained a very very important person behind the scenes. In fact, the extent of his influence has only over the last couple of days started to become clear. It seems that the decision to appoint him ambassador to Washington was as much about giving him a formal role within the British government as it was in appointing him representative to the administration of Donald Trump in the United States. Mweeny who by this point had become Kstarma's chief of staff and Mandolen had a very long

6:55 history. There is some claims probably true that Morgan Mweeny is a protetéé of Mandlesson's and in fact it seems that the two continued to meet and discuss and plan policy together and it seems that as recently as last September U Mandlesson played a very big role in organizing ing what was supposedly Karma's reshuffle. He's appointing ministers and dismissing them. It seems that a lot of the pigs were made by Peter Mandlesson

7:42 himself. So he was an enormously powerful figure behind the scenes which by the way is already a disturbing thing in a democratic society in a constitutional properly functioning democracy. One should not have such figures operating behind the scenes exercising so much enormous power. Now the other thing that has emerged and the thing that emerged yesterday is that not only was Kia Starmer extremely close to Peter Mandlesson, but when he appointed Peter Mandelon,

8:27 ambassador to Washington, he was aware that Peter Mandolen had maintained his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. after Jeffrey Epstein's original conviction um I believe for having um sex with a minor back I believe in 2009. Mandleston was still meeting Epstein after that conviction. He stayed he was staying in New York in Epstein's colossal New York mansion well after

9:14 that conviction. The two men still had contacts with each other and the prime minister Karma and his officials were at least at some level aware of the fact. And notwithstanding this, they went ahead and gave Peter Mandolson not just this enormously powerful position in Washington, but the extremely prominent role in the government which he appears to have had. Well, which he undoubtedly did have. And well, it actually gets much worse because we now have learned all sorts of things about Peter Mandlesson. things that people suspected. The fact that Peter Mandlesson, whilst acting as

10:02 Gordon Brown's number two, was rifling important documents from Downing Street, was sending copies of them um or emailed copies of them to Epstein in New York. He was also apparently supplying documents to other people. He was giving advice to Jamie Diamond and JP Morgan directly after the 2008 financial crisis about how they should um mildly threaten the British government of which Mandlesen himself was deputy prime minister in order to protect bankers

10:49 bonuses. There was apparently some talk that perhaps one day Mandlesson himself might receive a job at JP Morgan. Not entirely sure that is true, by the way, and it doesn't seem to have materialized. In any event, and there are lots of other reports and stories about Mandlesson being involved with all sorts of other people, providing favors, receiving money, doing all kinds of things. The overall impression is of a man who conducted corruption. I can put it no other way on a very significant scale indeed. Well, anyway, that's the story of Peter

11:35 Mandlesson. That is the man who um Kstarma had not just as ambassador in Washington but as a very prominent person within the British government. And that situation, by the way, would continue would still be the case if the decision that Donald Trump and Pam Bondi in the United States to keep the Epstein files under wraps had stood. As everyone knows, at least everyone in

12:20 the United States, I presume know, certainly people who watch these this program know, um Trump during the 2024 election had promised to publish the Epstein documents. He then reversed himself on Pam Bondi's advice. This caused an enormous outcry in the United States. The president's polling figures fell sharply. There was pressure and complaint from Congress and very grudgingly and very reluctantly. Donald Trump reversed his decision and

13:06 we are starting to get more and more of the Epstein papers start to be published though there are many many more of them still to come and as a result we now know how deep and how close Mandelson's connections to Epstein were. But we know an awful lot more. We also know about the various ways that other people who were part of Epstein's network, how they functioned. But we also know specifically in connection with Peter Mandelson, the extent to which he was receiving money, his partner and husband was receiving money

13:51 and how he was leaking privilege documents to Epstein as well. So all of this became public and of course it has created a storm. It has first forced Mandolson's dismissal from his position as ambassador and as the latest document dump from the United States became public, it has undermined Star's position as well by highlighting the fact that he appointed as ambassador to Washington this deeply corrupt Ed individual and had close connections with and was

14:41 deeply involved in government with this corrupt individual as well. I think it is important again to reiterate that none of this would be known, none of this would be discussed in Britain. None of this would have changed had there not been this enormous release of information in the United States. If Trump and Bondi had stuck to their position and had not released the Epstein files, it had not been the enormous pressure to release the files in the United States which came from

15:28 below from the from the people of the United States. Then Peter Mandlesson would still be ambassador of Britain in Washington. He would still be playing the same role in Kestama's administration. All of the things that we now know would not be known and things would have continued in exactly the way that they had previously done. Anyway, there it is. So Starmer is now exposed as having Peter Mandlesson as his best friend. Well, maybe not his best friend, but he's close political ally. Um his chief

16:14 of staff, Morgan Mweeny, is now exposed as having been extraordinarily close to Peter Mandolson and as having lobbed for Peter Mandlesson's appointment to his post as ambassador to Washington. And well, it's perhaps important at this point to remember that Karma is already a deeply unpopular prime minister. He never won a convincing victory in the general election in 2024. He only won around a third of the vote. He got a lopsided and enormous majority. But this was entirely

17:00 the product of the collapse of the Conservative Party. Absolutely not because of any huge ground swell of opinion and support for him. He has governed badly. He has been overwhelmingly focused on foreign policy. People who talk about Starmmer being overwhelmingly focused on foreign policy are of course engaging in a euphemism. He has always been overwhelmingly focused on Ukraine. He has been one of the architects of the coalition of the willing. He's come up with this disastrous proposal to send British and French troops to Ukraine to

17:45 police a ceasefire, one which is deeply controversial and unpopular in Britain. He has repeatedly embraced Vladimir Zalinski. Over the course of every meeting the two men have had outside Downing Street, as I have discussed, uh he has, in other words, brought the Alinski curse on himself and on Britain in an enormous way. And well the cumulative effect of all of this and of the absence of effective government in fact the deepening misgovernment of Britain that we have

18:32 seen is that he has become the most unpopular prime minister perhaps the most actively disliked and hated prime minister that I can remember in my lifetime. And now on top of all of that, on top of his various maneuvers to stop political rivals like Andy Bernham um coming entering parliament where they might conser conceivably challenge him um in spite of his attempts to try to slow walk elections, local government elections in various parts of Britain. Well, in spite and because of all of these things, his political position

19:17 even before the Mandlesson scandal exploded was already collapsing. In fact, as I remember saying last year, I wasn't sure that he would survive until Christmas. And the only reason why I think he has survived beyond Christmas is because there's been no convincing and affecting challenge to him within the political class. Well, that brings us now to the events of yesterday because yesterday he had to face the House of Commons. He had to explain his actions in relation to Peter Mandlesson to the

20:04 House of Commons yesterday and he had to admit something which is only very grudgingly admitted until now which is that of course he and his officials knew about Mandlesson's connections with Jeffrey Epstein and knew that Mandlesson had maintained connection s with Jeffrey Epstein after his conviction. But then he also said that he would release the documents relating to Mandlesson's appointment as ambassador to Washington, but that he would have a civil servant, the chief cabinet secretary, Britain's

20:52 most important civil servant, but someone who is directly answerable to Stalmer to filter the documents. ments to check them so as to ensure that no document was published which might affect Brit's Britain's national security. At which point I think it is fair to say that the House of Commons exploded. This was too much even for Labour loyalists. the entire House of Commons united against him and he had to back down and he had to agree to a proposal made by

21:38 his former deputy Angela Raina who he sacked a few months ago that the documents should all be provided to a committee of MPs in the House of Commons. s and it is they not he who will decide what should be published and what should not be. So you could say that as of this morning Kier star is simultaneously the victim if that's the right word of both the Zalinski the Alinski curse and the Epstein curse. He has brought both

22:24 of them upon himself. Now, at this point, there's a few further things to say. Not only was Star's performance yesterday in the House of Commons utterly disastrous, but in my opinion, he continues to be disastrous today. He's continuing to give and provide comments and explanations about his actions. He is saying rather incredibly that after Mandelson responded to the very cursory questions he was given about his connections to Jeffrey Epstein and lied by saying that

23:12 he'd basically ended his connections to Jeffrey Epstein that there was no reason to doubt that what Mandolson was saying was true. There was every reason to trust that what Mandolen was saying about his connections with Epstein was in fact true. Now, all I will say about that is that obviously most people in Britain and some people in the British political class would not have known the full horror story about Peter Mandlesson's career that has just been revealed. He's

23:58 leaking of documents. He's taking of large amounts of money. his connections, the depth of his connections to Jeffrey Epstein, but that Peter Mandelen was an extremely, shall we say, intricate individual is something that no one in British politics would have doubted and which of course the vast majority of British people who take an interest in politics would have known. I think that in terms of the political class and larger British society,

24:45 if Kestarma generally trusted Peter Mandlesson, then he would have been the only person in Britain to have done so. I mean, the idea that one would trust Peter Mandlesson's word on any such matter is in fact, frankly, bizarre and should have always appeared. So if K star did trust Peter Mandlesson, then he's obviously a complete fool and he's not fit to be prime minister. I think

25:30 most people think that in fact he didn't believe Peter Mandlesen, but he didn't really care. He wasn't bothered about the extent of Mandolson's connections to Epstein and that wasn't something that was particularly significant in his decision to appoint him ambassador. Either way, it is a disastrous look. I think that Stal would have been very wise to keep off this whole subject today. Um he's also said that he intends to remain prime minister but after his performance yesterday and this morning and after the

26:16 Mandlesen revelations I suspect that even within the Labor party which is usually very slow to move against its leaders. The view must now have taken hold that how however bad anyone else who takes over from Stara might be, he cannot be possibly be as bad as Starmmer already is. Now the mechanics of Star's removal are far from clear. Um, presumably there would have to be some movement on the part of ministers or of members of parliament.

27:02 There's an important bi-election coming, the very one in Manchester, which Andy Bernham wanted to stand for. It's happening on the 26th of February. I don't think anybody any longer expects that Labor will retain what used to be an incredibly strong and loyal seat. Once upon a time, a Labor victory there would have been a walk-in. Nobody, as I said, expects it today. Maybe that will be the catalyst, the moment when Starmmer finally falls, when he's told by his ministers to go. Maybe it will be sooner. Maybe it could be as soon as tonight. I think there's a fairly good chance that over the weekend by Sunday,

27:51 in fact, as people speak to their supporters in the country, MPs speak to their supporters in the country as they receive the emails and the letters that are going to pour in to uh Westminster, to London over the next couple of hours and days. I would not be surprised if by Sunday the overwhelming view has crystallized that star must go and if that happens that on Monday he is gone. All I will say is in that case good riddens. He's been a terrible prime

28:36 minister. He's been absolutely the wrong man to lead Britain at this time. I have no confidence that anybody from within the the Labour Party who replaces him is equal to the challenges that Britain faces. But there is no doubt whatsoever that Karma himself is not is not able to meet these challenges. And well, for the record, I I don't personally think he's even a particularly likable or sympathetic man, but that's my own opinion. I think definitely he needs to go. Anyway, that's what I'm going to say about this crisis

29:22 for now. Um, we'll see how it plays out over the next couple of days. Um, if he's still there at the end of next week, then all I can say is that the Labor Party is making itself life for itself even harder than it otherwise would be. And the general crisis in Britain, which is economic and social as well as political, will deepen. But I think that there is at least a fair chance that by next week this man who should never have been elected prime minister at all, who should never have been elected leader of the Labor Party in the first place, will finally be

30:08 gone. Anyway, that's uh what I'm going to say. first victim of the Epstein scandal, big political victim of the Epstein scandal, even if he's not, as I said, directly implicated with Epstein himself. Certainly far from the first victim of the Elinski curse, he brought both on himself. He deserves no sympathy as to what the effect of his departure might be on British policy, that is a topic to discuss on another day. Well, as far as I'm concerned, the big news

30:56 over the last 24 hours, other than the news in Britain, which I think is important, not just in British terms, the big news continues to be Ukraine and the conflict there. Now, over the last 24 hours, the Russians conducted yet another massive strike against Ukraine. And interestingly, we're starting to see increasing use of these gigantic and extremely powerful KH32 um missiles. These anti-hship missiles designed to destroy American aircraft carriers. They've been used increasingly by the Russians in a land attack role and they are attacking various energy

31:44 facilities across Ukraine and they're doing immense devastating damage. I understand that out of Ukraine's seven biggest cities, only one Lv in the far west still has stable supplies of electric power. Everywhere else it's either a question of an electricity or energy blackout, a constant energy electricity or energy blackout. Or it is a case of

32:30 critical shortages of energy and of electric power creating the situation causing the situation to get worse and worse from day to day even as the temperatures in Ukraine continue to fall. And there has been further information incidentally from the front lines. Uh the Russians continue to advance mostly most specifically in Zaporia region and in Constantin. There were major adjustments that were made last night to the maps that are published by the various mapping projects. They they show a very very big leap

33:18 forward by the Russians in Zaporosia region. This is in eastern Zaporosia region where the Russian army is moving further westwards towards Oreov and ultimately towards the city of Zaporosia. It looks like Ukrainian defenses in eastern Zaporosia are collapsing, bringing the moment when Oreov, the one remaining important town other than Zaporia city itself, bringing forward the moment when Oreov itself is surrounded and almost certainly soon after falls. And the

34:03 other place where there's been a big increase in the pace of the Russian advance is the Constantin area and the area north of the town of Pakross. It looks as if the Russians are now very close to attacking the town of Doupilia to the northwest of Pacross. They also seem to be now definitely close to clearing the village of Gishcino. Gishcino north west of Pakovsk. Also Gishino played an important part in the battle of Pakovsk because it was from Gishino that the various Ukrainian

34:50 counterattacks trying to extricate the Ukrainian forces that had been trapped in Mirrad. It was from Gishcino that most of them were mounted. But it looks as if Gishcino also is now close to falling. And in Constantinoka itself, well, there's been multiple pictures of enormously heavy bombing by the Russian air force using fan bombs on Ukrainian positions. and more and more of the territory of Constantinfka is being colored under as being under Russian control by the various mapping projects. Um my own

35:36 view remains that Constantinoka as well as the town of Leman in northwest uh uh in northeast Ukraine north at the northern end of the Slavanskatsk connibation that in February this February both of these two towns are going to fall anyway even as these Russian advances continue Even as Ukraine continues to be hammered, even as Mark Rut, the NATO secretary general, visits Kiev and makes fantastical and absurd speeches of the of the sort that I discussed in my program yesterday. Even as all of that

36:23 continues, we had another meeting in Abu Dhabi between the Russian and Ukrainian negotiators. And I spent some time discussing this meeting in my program yesterday. The fact that Zalinski clearly didn't want it to take place at all. And well, frankly, given the pace of events on the battle fronts, this meeting looks even more like the sideshow, a sideshow than it seemed before. Um, we've had statements from Witgo, who was of course there. He wasn't intended to be there, but he was there. And Witgo um, of

37:09 course said that um, the meeting was constructive, that the mood between the negotiators was positive. I'm not sure I accept that. By the way, um, Kosukov, who heads the Russian delegation, said that at the previous meeting, the Russians were buoyant and optimistic in light of their continued advances, whereas the Ukrainians were depressed. That doesn't sound like the mood was especially positive between the two delegations. Obviously, they're not shouting and throwing things at each other, but then one wouldn't expect them to. Um, the fact remains, as I said, that the Russians are happy, the

37:57 Ukrainians are not. And well, um, this is what TAS says about the meeting. First of all, um, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations agreed to exchange 314 prisoners of war. What this has been confirmed by WitGoff and it is the one achievement if you want to call it that of this meeting. I say I say that with some cynicism because of course the Russians and the Ukrainians already had an existing dialogue whereby they exchanged prisoners of war in the past. Um always always in these exchanges the numbers are enormously lopsided.

38:45 The Russians always have many more Ukrainian prisoners to hand over to the Ukrainians than the Ukrainians have Russians. But the Russians did get one thing out of this exchange which is important to them which is that three residents of Ksk region captured by the Ukrainians whilst they were in control of Korsk region between August and August 2024 and March 2025. Three residents of Ksk region, three Russian citizens who are who are as far as I know civilians. They are amongst the people that the Ukrainians are going to hand back to the Russians. The

39:31 Russians, by the way, were complaining a couple of days ago that there are still that there were still at that time, I believe it was 12 Ksk citizens, Ksk residents detained by Ukraine. and they were wanting them back. Perhaps over the course of the meeting in Abu Dhabi, they pushed for all 12 to be returned, but at any rate, the Ukrainians have provided three. Um, and well, this is how TAS sums up results of the meeting. According to

40:17 Witgov, thanks to detailed and productive talks, the sides managed to reach an agreement on the exchange of prisoners. The Russian and Ukrainian delegations intend to cons continue consultations on settling the conflict and progress on this issue is expected in the coming weeks. But that's incredibly vague. And what does progress mean? Does that mean that there's going to be another meeting? Perhaps, probably. But notice that there is no date given for when this meeting will take place. And in fact, another source, this is a Russian sport source, speaking to TAS, said that

41:03 Russia, the United States, and Ukraine will agree on dates for new meetings which will continue the dialogue started in the UAE. Well, so that leaves open the possibility that the next meetings might not be held in the UAE at all. The Russians are now increasingly pressing for the meetings to take place in Moscow. Um, I should say that I can't imagine the Ukrainians will agree, but the Russians are saying that this is where the meetings should happen. We'll see whether they do and whether this is a problem in agreeing future

41:51 meetings. More likely the Russians are putting down a marker. And then we're co we're told by the same source who spoke to TAS that economic aspects territorial issues and a ceasefire mechanism are being discussed. The ceasefire is not the temporary ceasefire that Zilinski is talking about. It is the ceasefire that will come into effect once the Ukrainians withdraw from Donbass and perhaps in fact almost certainly eventually from the two other regions Zaporo and Hersan. Um there is no sign that the Russians have given ground on any of that. But note again that this is all extremely vague.

42:37 Then we have the further comment which has been provided to Tass by the western source. Moscow sees the recognition of Donbass as Russian by all countries as part of a larger agreement. A western source told Tass in Abu Dhabi. Who was this western source? Witkov Kushner probably possibly. But think of the implications of what that means. The Russians have repeatedly

43:23 said that as part of an agreement, any final agreement, the territory that is going to be transferred to Russia, definitely the Dombas, definitely Crimea, almost certainly Zaparosia and Hersan as well. It must receive international recognition as Russian. international recognition by the United States, by Ukraine, by the Western powers also. And this Western source confirmed that this is also the Russian stance at the talks in Abu Dhabi. Now

44:12 that demand, as the Russians must know, is one that Western governments are going to resist and of course which the government, the current government in Ukraine Zalinski is also going to resist. If the Russians insist on this and so far they've not compromised on it, then this is a deal breakaker. Um, I cannot imagine any circumstance in which European governments, after all that they've said and done over the last five years, would agree to recognize territorial changes

44:59 brought about as a result of the SMO in Ukraine. And then the same western source told TAS um security guarantees for Ukraine may include not peacemaker peacekeepers but a rapid team rapid response team made up of international forces. So this is clearly um clearly um a western idea. The Russians obviously made clear again in Abu Dhabi that the security guarantees that have been discussed between the Ukraine, the

45:46 Europeans and the United States which involve deployment of European forces in Ukraine are completely unacceptable. And this source Witkoff who of course played a cre role in negotiating or talking to the Ukrainians about these security guarantees now that he realizes that the Russians won't accept them is trying to find a way round. He's coming up with these ideas about rapid response forces, which for the record, I should say, are going to be equally unacceptable to the Russians. And um we're then told that um

46:35 other things have also been going on. There might be a communicate um from the UAE rather than a joint document following this meeting. Well, we'll see. I I personally would not expect that and I'm not sure why the UAE would want to publish such a communicate. The same western source says this and it's very interesting and it's very interesting that this western source who's obviously American and as I said he's probably either Wickoff or Kushner. Anyway, this western source says representatives of European countries have attempted to join the

47:21 consultations on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi but they are not at the negotiating table today. So, Zalinski has been trying to get his European friends to tell the Americans that they should join the meeting in Abu Dhabi. My guess is that the Russians said absolutely not. Not in any way. The Americans obviously not keen on the idea. The door is locked and the Europeans are outside. The Ukrainians are up against the Russians and the Americans on their own. And as I discussed in my program yesterday, it looked as if at one point

48:10 they might be up against the Russians by themselves. And it was probably only it probably required fairly hard work by the Ukrainians and the Europeans to get the Americans to come and agree and to join the meeting. And then this same Western source we're just saying says that work on restoring economic cooperation between Russia and the United States is proceeding positively. There has been positive movement forward in the negotiations um um in the negotiations um with Kiriel Dimitrif on economic

48:56 matters and somebody told TAS referring to the Europeans he said somebody presumably a Russian said that there's been progress and positive movement forward in the negotiations process on a peace agreement with Ukraine Ukraine, although wararm mongers from Europe and the United Kingdom are trying to interfere and well that appears to have been Demetri. So there it is. That's what the Russians that's what the what's Tass is saying. That's what Tass is saying that they were told by the Americans and that's what TAS is also saying they were told by the Russians. no progress on any of the substantive matters.

49:42 Some discussions about some of the mechanics. Um the Russians making their position about security guarantees crystal clear, the Americans taking a step back and the Europeans kept firmly out of the room. In the meantime, as I said, the war goes on. The Russians have continued to talk about the situation. a Russian official, Vladimir Jabarov, who is the first deputy chairman of the Federation Council's Committee on International Affairs and therefore a fairly well-informed person in Moscow says that

50:31 um though the Russians are taking the negotiations seriously, the Ukrainians probably are not. And this is a direct quote. Now, both Zalinski and his entire team are fully aware that their survival depends on perpetuating the war. If and when peace is achieved, Zalinski will have to contra confront the reality of what he has dragged Ukraine into, what he has done, and face the consequences for the tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of young lives lost or ruined. Unfortunately, he shows no pity viewing these lives as disposable. So there it is. Um the war continues. We

51:17 see no fundamental movement in Abu Dhabi. It's perhaps true to say that the fact that there are contacts um is something and something might in the meantime come out of it. But the real dynamic, the real place where one should look to for outcomes in the war continues to be the front lines, the battlefronts. That's where the real differences, the real changes are taking place. Now, we haven't yet heard from Putin about

52:03 Ukraine. He hasn't spoken about Ukraine. Basically, I think it was since his meetings, some of his meetings which he had in early January. uh well not early January, the second week of January after he returned from Christmas and New Year holiday leave. So we've not heard much from Putin. Um I suspect that Putin is waiting to see what the next big move on the front lines is. And then we're going to have a meeting between him and the generals again. They're going to brief him once say Leman has fallen or Constantinovka

52:49 has fallen or something of that kind and then we will get a further much clearer outline of where all of all of this is going. Um what I would say is that everywhere on every part of the front lines it is the Russians who continue to advance. This includes places like Kian. It includes very mysteriously these activities by the Russians in northeastern Ukraine in Sunumi Kharkov and Chernigov regions. As I said already, to me, all of that looks like preparations for a future offensive whose objective must be Kiev.

53:39 I'm going to make a prediction that either in the second half of this year if Donbass and Zaporia fall in the next few months which is possible or next year if Zaporia and Donbass fall this year next year in 2027 the final knockout blow will come with simultaneous Russian offensives west of the Neper towards Adessa and in northern Ukraine towards Kiev. And this time the Russian offensive

54:27 to capture Kiev will be in earnest and the preparations the early preparations for it are being made. And this is what is going on in northeastern Ukraine. The Russian operations west uh I I in in Zaporoia region and the eventual capture of Zaporo city itself. They are preparations for the eventual advance towards Adessa. Of course, if Desa and Kiev fall, then at that point, one can no longer speak

55:13 of a viable, functional Ukraine. At that point, the Russians will have won the war and the war will have ended and we will be looking at a completely different political geography and landscape in Europe. Anyway, that's how I see things at the moment on the front lines. It could be that as the armies advance in Zaporo and in Donbass. We might suddenly see this diplomatic process finally burst into life.

55:58 something might suddenly emerge out of the discussions. We will just have to wait and see. But for the moment at least, the negotiations are stuck. Zalinski is not prepared to make any of the big compromises. The Russians have shot down the idea of security guarantees as the Americans perhaps are now starting to understand. And the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are well maybe not so much a stalemate as on substantive hold. Putin may not be talking about Ukraine but he remains extremely busy. Yesterday

56:46 he had a long meeting with President Cining and for the first time we got not just a um readout from the Kremlin but a briefing a detailed briefing about the discussion by Putin's foreign policy aid Yuri Ushikov. Um, Ushikov gives regular briefings whenever Putin and Trump speak or meet with each other and we become used to that. But to my knowledge, this is the first time that Ushakov has uh been tasked to do the same thing in terms of the meeting between Putin and C. It's a virtual meeting that took place between

57:34 Putin and C. And the interesting thing is that the meeting itself lasted apparently an hour and a half and Ushakov gave his briefing an hour and a half after the meeting between Putin and C had finished. Now, that makes me believe that the Russians drafted Ushakov's words, the briefing. Ushaka drafted his briefing. It was then forwarded to Beijing. It was then sent to Beijing. The Chinese checked it.

58:21 They told the Russians any amendments to the briefing that they wanted, probably not many. They then gave the green light and that what that explains why Ushakov gave his briefing after a one and a half hour delay. The briefing is interesting. There's an awful lot of discussion about economic matters. It's clear that the Russians are positioning themselves as China's major energy source as China's man major energy supplier and the Chinese seem to be accepting

59:07 the Russians as fulfilling that role. It makes absolute sense by the way um given the risks of maritime transport of oil and gas to China given the way in which the United States and the western countries have increasingly interfered with maritime trade. And it's important to remember that the US Navy has seized tankers that seem to be shipping Venezuelan oil to China. Um that the Chinese and the Russians who share a common border would want to secure their trade with each other. that the Chinese would be looking to the

59:53 Russians who have a powerful fleet and are able to transport oil and gas to China both by pipeline and by ship through secure routes that the Chinese and the Russians are working on this sort of project. And I'm going to make a guess that the Paris Siberia 2 pipeline is now going to be given added urgency by both sides, though it's not actually mentioned um in Ushakov's briefing. And I suspect that we're going to get a succession of oil pipelines built as well. oil pipelines being of course intrinsically inherently safer

1:00:39 than um travel by ship and over time cheaper as well. just to say so um ex we should expect over the next decade or so a major ramping up of the Russian Chinese energy trade and of course there's all sorts of other things that they discussed also they discussed um cooperation on um other matters Putin briefed C on his recent meeting with Ali Larijani Iran's national security advisor. We'll come to all of that in a moment. And um China and Russia both agreed to work

1:01:26 together to protect Cuba, which is continuing to face all of the pressure that it is facing from the United States. So we have all of that in the read in in Ushakov's briefing as well. But perhaps the most interesting paragraph, at least for me, was the one about the START treaty. President Putin noted, this is directly from the briefing, that the treaty on measures for the further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms, that's the STAR treaty, is due to expire on February 5th. As you know on September 22 2022 September 22nd 20 2025 we suggested

1:02:11 extend extending the key quantitative limits for one year on a voluntary basis. There was no official response from the United States. Putin emphasized that in this situation, Russia will act in a balanced and responsible manner based on a careful analysis of the overall security environment. Russia remains open to finding a way to ensure strategic stability through negotiations. So this I suspect was a major part of the discussions between Putin and Steve yesterday. And there have been further contacts between the Russians and the Chinese.

1:02:57 Shyu went to China, met with Wang Yi Cinping's national security adviser and foreign and China's foreign minister and Yabkov as I discussed yesterday. Sergey Aabkov um chaired a joint meeting on strategic stability that the Russian the Chinese and the Russians have set up together. So there was a lot of diplomatic activity yesterday between China and Russia and interestingly shortly after Putin spoke to Cining someone else called Cining and that was Donald Trump. And here we have problems because the United States no longer publishes or provides us with the kind of readouts that it once did. So we

1:03:46 don't know exactly what C and Trump discussed but again I wonder whether it is the fact that we are now in a world with ar without arms control that that is what we are now that was what featured over the course of this discussion the Americans one of the reasons why start has not been re renewed and why this whole system of arms arms control has collapsed, as I discussed in my program yesterday, is that the Americans are worried, angry if you prefer, that Russia and China both have nuclear arsenals which taken

1:04:34 together are bigger than those of the United States. and the United States and Donald Trump in particular feel that they should have equality with the aggregate nuclear forces of both. Now this is going to be a very very difficult thing to get the Americans to understand that it's not going to happen. The Chinese are not going to put themselves by treaty in an inferior position to the Americans and nor I suspect with the Russians. Sooner or later the Americans will have to accept that there are now three big nuclear powers. But that doesn't mean

1:05:20 that there shouldn't be arms control treaties and mechanisms to control nuclear arms. Perhaps I would like to believe anyway that the first step towards discussions maybe tripartite discussions to talk about all of this will happened yesterday. Now Trump himself is due to visit China in April and Cinping invited Putin over the course of the discussion yesterday to come to Russia to China in the first half of this year. There's already some speculation that

1:06:06 the invitation to Putin is set for April, in which case there is an outside chance that see Putin and Trump will all be together in Beijing and that there might be a tripartite meeting of the three. That really would be a meeting of the big three. I don't recall the last time anything like that happened and frankly it would be an extraordinary event in the modern world. The coming together of the three great powers. Well, we'll see if it happens. I don't expect it myself

1:06:52 just to say I'm not sure that Trump would be com comfortable to meet in China with Putin and see together just saying but perhaps just possibly some pieces are moving. Now the other potential great power India has also been in contact with the United States. Prime Minister Modi agreed a major trade agreement with the United States. The United States has sharply cut its tariffs on Indian goods um from apparently 50% in terms of some

1:07:37 goods. though it seems that information I received in the summer that pharmaceutical exports from India to the United States were never covered by US tariffs. It turns out that that was true. Anyway, um it seems that the tariffs have indeed been brought down. The 50% tariffs have are now 18%. The US says that it is cutting or Donald Trump is saying that he's cutting the overall 25% tariff that he initially imposed on India down to 18% and that he's doing away with the 25% tariff he imposed on India in the autumn

1:08:26 because India is importing Russian oil. He says he's doing away with that entirely because Prime Minister Modi supposedly told him that India is going to stop importing Russian oil. The Russians have said that they have no information from India that this is the case and the Indians have said nothing to confirm that this is so. I suspect that President Trump wanted this trade deal with India. He does what he regularly does. He pretends that the Indians have assured him that they're not going to buy Russian oil so that he can simply do away with that 25% tariff

1:09:15 on India which I doubt that he was ever really keen to impose in the first place. He was under pressure perhaps from Senator Graham last autumn. He feels perhaps less under pressure from Senator Graham on this topic. Now that's my guess and I'm not absolutely sure but to repeat again the Russians for the moment are saying that they have no information from India that India is cutting back its purchases or ending its purchases of Russian oil. Now yesterday I said that it seemed to me that the Indians had gained the advantage from

1:10:01 these negotiations. I have to say that I have revised that view based on an article that has been written on naked capitalism by Eve Smith. I had not realized that as part of this trade deal, India has apparently agreed to allow agricultural imports from the United States into India at a 0% tariff. Now, if that is correct, and apparently the deal has not been finalized, then that is a massive concession, far bigger concession than any agreement to stop buying Russian oil. If that has

1:10:47 indeed happened, then I suspect Prime Minister Modi is going to face in the next few months severe political challenges in India. Most of the Indian population still work in agriculture and they would not be happy to put it mildly about a concession like this. I have to say that this concession seems so great to me that I wonder whether it has happened at all or whether there isn't some details or some explanation here that will make it less significant than

1:11:34 it looks. But anyway, this is something that we'll have to return to in future programs. This is where I finish my program today. Let me remind you again that you can find all our programs on our various platforms, Locals, Rumble, and X. You can support our work via Patreon and Subscribear and by going to our shop links under this video. Last but not least, please remember to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel. That's me for today. More from me soon. Have a very good day.