TECHNICAL TUESDAY!! [LIVE]

0:09 All right, everyone. This is the stream everybody has been waiting for. Amid is out having fun in California. He's at GTC doing GTC things. So, we thought we would do the Steve Squared >> show. Dude, Steve Squared show. I I actually kind of like that. I kind of like that, dude. I'm going to So, I'm going to go have dinner with Ste or with Emit in a little bit later tonight. And I'm like, I don't know. I love these guys to death, but I'm a little worried about the they want Chinese food. They're sending me the links. I'm like, I want to take them somewhere nice. Them as in it's a mint, Evan, and Stock Talk.

0:55 But uh I don't I don't know. They seem like more like uh they wouldn't appreciate the nice stuff anyways. It's more like we're just going to hang out. I don't know. I don't know what the what the food situation is over there. You'd probably know. Are they foodies? Not foodies. >> I mean, Emid has acquired a very good pallet for very good red meat. >> Oh, just for the steak. Well, okay. >> Yes. >> I mean, steak is steak over here. We just have the regular Morton and unless >> I mean I love Morton. So >> yeah, there's Morton, Alexander, and some bougie places. But I I don't know. Steak is like you can get it everywhere. Here, I guess. What is it? The chat would probably like Asian fusion maybe

1:41 better. Uh if you want some like San Joseesque food, but Indian street food. Amid is up for Indian street. See, we don't have Indian street food at all here. That is totally a New York thing. Like you get the Well, it's not Indian like Greek. Greek street. >> Oh yeah, the Greek the all that stuff. >> Yeah, that is all that is all New York. That is not here like at all. It's laughable here. So before we get started, please take a moment and read the disclaimer. We are not your financial advisors. We have no idea what we're talking about. Please do your own due diligence. Don't buy anything because two guys on the internet are talking about it. always do your due diligence. Thank you very much. All right, Jason, I'm on.

2:29 >> Thank you very much. >> And you need to knock some sense into me. >> So, I wanted I wanted to stream with you because you've been talking about trying to do this, you know, learn this technical analysis thing. And I think it started with the MIT for sure >> with the the the male astrology. By the way, it's I think I think we're finding it's more like astronomy, not astrology. There's a difference ver astronomy versus astrology. So, I'm good with the uh astrology. Is it astrology? Anyways, it's not the tarot cards per se. It's the legit science >> when it's very different. >> Thank you very much. Really appreciate it. >> So, Jason, how

3:14 >> in the chat by the way, how do I see who's on mine? Because we're we're doing You're going to have to probably go to YouTube >> pull it in >> and look at your YouTube channel to see only your chat. If you're looking at it in StreamYard, it's going to show both. >> Oh, yeah. But Okay. So, they both get pulled in. >> Yeah. So, if you type in StreamYard, it'll go both chats. >> Love it. >> Yeah. >> All right. I know you cover a lot of companies would admit the first one we need to go over is Reddit. So I was saying on th Wednesday or Thursday I started talking about I said you know what I don't use it I don't understand why people use it but the fundamentals are amazing and I

4:01 should take a position and I never did and whenever that happens it goes up so what the hell did I miss from a technical perspective >> I don't know that you missed anything so before I even share the screen I am here today to find the next micron just so you guys No, if you don't know, Steve actually said, "If we're going to be so bullish, Nvidia, why are we not uber bullish?" Micron at like, I don't know $100 >> right? >> Didn't put a dollar in that I know of. >> Nope. >> Absolutely goes to the moon. So, it's what I'm going to be hunting for today. I also know that if you're on my channel, Steve, if you could do a quick intro, if you're on my channel, Steve is like a fundamental analyst from Seeking

4:48 Alpha. I think you're What's your rank right now? You are top. I I mean, he's top >> at some point. It's gonna I'm not going to be this high. Okay. >> He's hot. He's hot from a fundamental perspective. And if you follow me on Twitter or whatever, you guys know there's like there's three things that we need to look at when it comes to picking stocks. And we can all agree this is a stock pickers market 100%. Right? And so the three things, one, fundamentals. >> See, I slipped. >> I'm no longer top 20. I slipped. >> Oh, you need to step it up, man. 29. What are you doing? >> I'm 44,000. >> I mean, I was 18 the other day. >> At some point, I'm going to be like 250 or a thousand. Like, just because this

5:35 has been like this for some time. This guy is clearly slacking. >> Do not think that this is going to stay like this. Please. >> Okay. >> So, what we look at fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and sentiment analysis, the three things combined, right? And as a technician, whatever, I can find out when generally speaking the stock is going to be ready or where where the good areas are. I can't save us from a bare market. I I'll tell you that right now if that's happening, but I can tell us I can tell us like where the areas will be to DCA longer term. But for Steve's channel, technical analysis is more or less about timing a little bit better entries and exits or hedging, if you will. So, if

6:21 you're in the if you're in the never sell camp, it's not technical analysis, but it can help you out a lot in getting some better entries if you're a little bit more patient. If we can find some of those things. Um, otherwise most of what I'll talk about right now is good for roughly a couple months. That's what we can be ultra precise on. Uh, and then anything aside from that, sentiment analysis can overcome. So, we get a Trump tweet, things like that. Nothing's 100%. But, um, I think take it with a grain of salt. If you like it, cool. If not, no big deal. But if you're an investor, learning technical analysis to me is something that can kind of like supercharge uh your compound effect over

7:07 the years. Just knowing the right right places to add. So that's my spiel. I don't know if you want to add anything to that, Steve, or what you're interested in. Yeah, I mean, I'm interested in trying to get myself to actually pull the trigger because I have no problem throwing good amounts of my portfolio into strong things that I know such as in Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, S&P, like that's no-brainer. If I think there's value, I'll just put it in. But when I go looking for value, especially with companies with products I don't use like Reddit, to me, I don't understand how Reddit survives because why would anybody want to go on Reddit where you can just type into a Claude or

7:54 a chat GPT? >> Fair point. >> You got YouTube, that type of thing. So, the numbers looked amazing. >> I didn't buy it. Maybe technical analysis can help me. >> Yeah. So there's going to be a combination. So the fundamentals, if you have a fair value price that you think is good, if you're going to be a fundamental trader, typically what you're looking for is to buy something that's undervalued. So that means you have to have a fair value estimate for the stock. Um, and then the rest of it comes into the two the two other categories. Sentiment, which is the market's appetite for risk in that specific not even sector, but even a little bit further down, maybe industry. Um, and then And then on top of that, technicals. So any one of these things are out of

8:39 whack. The whole thing's out of whack. So you need all three to kind of line up. So that said, I will share the screen. Without further ado, let me see if I get the right screen. All right. So Reddit. So, what I usually do and my son I'm I'm actually in the back house right now and we have a sandbox out front and he I caught him climbing on the desk earlier. So, there's sand on my desk and the keyboard is a little out of whack. So, we'll blame him. But, so what I'm typically going to do I don't know. I don't Is anybody new to to technical Tuesday at all?

9:25 just out of the game. >> There probably is a couple of people. >> Chat's always lagged, man. So, um, we'll do spy. I Well, this was this was this is uh this is Steve's pick. So, we'll do this and then we're gonna ask Steve chat if we're actually [ __ ] in the market in general after this. whether it's whether it's, you know, NASDAQ 100 rules changing for SpaceX inclusion out of the gate or if it's private credit or is already shaking or any of that kind of stuff. So that's that, by the way, that's sentiment, right? So those kind of things are sentiment and that's going to have a lot to do with Reddit. Um, if

10:11 I were to clean this up, most people, you know, first of all, we're not doing Yahoo charts here, so it's a little bit more up to date. Um, what I have here, this is actually me and Amit's chart because we've been looking at Reddit. I don't like it personally just yet, but I think it's close. So, um, 130 is not it's it's like it's a random kind of number. What we typically do is we technical analysis when it comes to the actual science and whatever. It's like a lot of it's a lot of measurements and it's a lot of finding out where um where price has moved in the past and like where volume kind of piles up in the past. And I use certain things. So on my right on the right hand side of my screen, you'll see

10:56 this little like woogity wiggy looks like mountain ranges on the on the right. This is actually a visual representation of volume. And so we can see where buyers and sellers are kind of stacking up. So what I'd say is this will typically act like a like a bit of a mountain range down here. So this from a long-term perspective, this whole area is what I'd say support, but it goes down to about 120. So 120 or as close to as you can from a longer term perspective or below even is is where I'd like to nibble at it if I'm an investor, right? Maybe even lower if I can get something like that. If it's below 120, I will skip the $100 level alto together and

11:42 I'll just wait for like 75. Just just as an aside in in this moment in time when when it comes to kind of blending these two things whether it's like investing and trading the whole market's in a weird spot because a lot of things are at like investable levels. So I'll I'll caveat pretty much anything with like as long as you have a two to three or a three to five year time horizon like you're not going to use this money for the next three to five years. You're not going to sell it, you're just going to hold it. a lot of things are like it's all good but you don't want to kind of blow your load too early and we say like premature allocation. So this is where you kind of blend the two. So ideally if you don't have anything it's worth a very small position right now.

12:29 It's not worth a large position here but the closer you can get to to 120 or lower which is this lower like right hand the kind of looks like a mountain range. we usually call it like a high volume node, but the the mountain range on the right hand side, this is is where actually the real support is. And what this little image here is, and I'll remove that. It's a I'll take some of these drawings off. We'll zoom in. But this is from, what date is this? March 2025 in this area where it spent about a 100 days going pretty much sideways and creating new base. This is where the prior investor base is. So when this when the stock gets to this area as

13:16 close to this area as possible, it will have some memory. People that bought it there in the past last year will think, "Oh, I remember buying it back around a hundred bucks just below 120 and it did really good and I made a bunch of money. It went back up." Right? and they're going to remember that that that's what happened last time. And so this area becomes future support. Right now, what's happening is that people that probably held on too long are also in a bit of a bind, right? If they bought over here, they held on too long and now they're they they finally have this moment to be like, "Oh [ __ ] I should have sold a while ago, but I didn't. So now I'm close to breaking even. I'm probably just going to get out." while the market sentiment is not good around software as a whole because the

14:01 sentiment is not on your side right now. If if the sentiment shifts in the sector then it becomes like a screaming buy and what will what will show up in the charts is that this will be trading over 160. So the two things that I'm giving you right now are that one as close to 120 or below as you can. That's when you want to accumulate little bit at a time kind of DCA in that in that general area. But if it's over 160, you can just start adding more aggressively because you have a winner at at that point and it's going it's already back on its on its way to recovery. So if you want to wait to be more sure, it's over 160. If you if you're a good long longer term DCA as close to 120 or below as you can

14:49 that help. He's taking notes everybody. >> I am >> chat guys taking notes. >> No I actually am. >> So it would be it would look like this. I'll add a like you can add a little bit here and then you'd want a bigger entry here. That's it. You don't want to just if it's at 100, like I said, I'd skip that alto together and wait for like the floor to the floor to fall out and come down towards 75 because at that point, if it's below 120, we know that something's generally wrong. The sentiment's really gone um like against us. And so I if I'm going to add into something like this, it would have to be more meaningful. Like I don't want to just DCA to DCA. I'd rather not jump in

15:38 the way, not try and catch a falling knife. This is all equity, by the way. It's not ready for options. Um, and it would it would be just like adding when I get a substantial discount to actually affect my cost basis. So, I'm assuming that is your time horizon. So, that's with like a a three plus multi-year time horizon. I'm not sure where my time horizon is. I started looking at it and when I look at the fundamentals, it looked like it was beaten up way too much and it was oversold because of how one profitable it is right now and two where the analysts see the growth on earnings and revenue and it looked like it was it was trading around 31 times

16:27 this year's earnings and 22 times next year's earnings. huge amount of forward growth and I started looking at I'm like I want to see it recover a little bit because I just wasn't sure that it wasn't done selling off because of what the chart showed previously and then of course it's up like 11% in the past three days. >> That's right. So you because you brought it up so I'm going to use the the term oversold here. That's that's that's in regards to something called an RSI which is the indicator on the bottom. What is the RSI? >> It's not oversold. It was oversold um like right here on the day after earnings about 137. That was the lowest

17:13 like lowest oversold reading in its inception. So since the stock has been a publicly traded entity, that is the lowest RSI rating it's ever had. Anything technically below 30 is quote unquote oversold. But to that end, this red line here, and I'll just kind of like make a whatever right here. This is the spot where oversold was the highest literally right here and right here. So, when something's oversold, it it doesn't mean that it's going to bounce. It did bounce, but right here, it doesn't mean that's the bottom by any means. So this whole bottom indicator here is uh is an RSI. This is a daily chart. This is daily RSI. Um what's important from a

18:01 trend perspective and the better way to use RSI again we can look at a thousand charts oversold from a technical definition is below 30 but that does not mean it just means it's it's going to take a breather from going down. it might take a breather from going down or overbought it might take a breather from going up. In this instance from a trend perspective there's a zero line or not on RSI it's 50 line. So this whole bottom box this is 50 right here. So um but you can't see this because it's so Let me see if I can make this thicker. Oh yeah, that's way better. So this purple line I just made is called RSI. Um, and this white line is the 50 line.

18:47 So, if the RSI is over 50, then your trend is actually starting to turn around. But when you look at this in the past, and here's another example, just this little box right here, here, and I will we'll just do another one as an as a comparison. The bottom the bottom half of the screen is RSI. top half of the screen is the chart. That that white line again, that's the 50 line. It's going to chop in there and in this moment that becomes like a lot of sideways action. It doesn't actually break out until you're well over the 50. So again, misuse of RSI from a a most

19:34 retail traders is they look at oversold and they're like, "Oh, I'm gonna it's going to bounce." Yeah, it'll bounce, but it doesn't mean it's done going down. It's in that moment. It's the 50 line here that's going to give you the better trend. And this is the moment right here where that actually happens on the daily RSI. We only use really daily or weekly if you want to, but higher time frames for RSI um that you actually get a move up on RSI which corresponds with the chart going here. And now people are like, oh, it's overbought, right? So overbought stocks, you know the saying, right? stocks stay oversold and overbought for a long time. But what you might not know is that overbought stocks are also the most the best performing stocks. So from this point where it gets over 50 and it

20:20 becomes overbought. Overbought is here. This is overbought. This is the highest overbought period that Reddit has had. Now that's overbought again. It's not an auto sell because what happens? Yes, it pulls back to the 50 here, but it's just like a blip on the chart. It's It's a nothing burger. Um, and it's not until you get back. We I have an apprenticeship that teaches this kind of stuff. Um, if people are interested, this is this is a legit signal here. Uh, it's more complicated. This is something called bearish divergence. So for for RSI on Reddit, we're actually going to look for something called bullish divergence later, which is um the stock giving me and I I'm actually getting that right

21:06 now. I I'll give you that. So it's building some kind of base where the trend line of the lower RSI is trending higher. So I have a higher low on the RSI, but I have an equal low on the stock. Might not be exactly ready right now, but um but it's building into into something. for Reddit, you you don't really want to go all in all at once because it's the personality of the stock also is very squeezy. So, when it goes, it's just going to go. You're like, it's just going to go. Uh it could be something like catalyst or like like earnings or things like that. But again, it's the 50 line level on RSI that's significantly more important. overbought, oversold. Clearly, not that big of a difference. Um, or not that big

21:54 of a signal if you're using this this indicator. I don't have a timer today. They're calling for a for a timer, but I'm over time, so we can move on. >> All right. Which one do you want to look at next? >> Well, typically we would start with like spy or >> So, let's do spy. >> Well, I wanted to know are how how screwed are we? What are your thoughts on this uh space? >> I can't answer that till tomorrow. >> And here's what And here's why. You got the Fed tomorrow. >> Yeah. >> And I'm worried about what the Fed is gonna say. Because you have oil over 90. >> We don't know what's really happening overseas. >> You remember when you text me the other day and told me that oil is going to go over 100 right on the stream? And I was

22:39 like, "Yeah, for sure he's it's going over 100." I wasn't joking. But um >> so we have a very serious situation and it's not about the rate cuts because we're not getting a cut. We all know we're not getting a cut tomorrow. >> It's not about >> what they say and if what they say is going to impact the consensus numbers and >> if oil stays above for too long, it doesn't matter where CPI or PCE comes in next month because they're backward-looking numbers. It matters what those consensus numbers are. And if those consensus numbers jump to 35 or 36 or 37, then you have a narrative with the Fed that inflation is increasing. Inflation's going to be sticky. Oil's

23:26 increased for too long where now the ramifications will get felt through the economy. You have fertilizer prices going up at the wrong time because now is growing season, harvesting season coming up. >> Is that the reason though or is it just the debasement change? No, but think about springtime, big crop season right now. So, you don't want higher fertilizer prices. That gets passed on. >> You got transportation costs going up because of oil. You have input costs on manufacturing going up because of oil. Oil is a very big thing that >> Yeah, there's there's like there's like little to no shot that we don't have. And the last CPI number that and this so if you're if you're confused as to why the market's not, you know, moonshotting to the upside, it's this, right? And this is sentiment in the last CPI still

24:12 hot. GDP was like scorching hot not that long ago. So now it has to come back in anyways. So we have a GDP or a growth rate as a as a country coming down slightly in unemployment going up with sticky inflation. this this uh this soup mixture is something called stagflation uh or hints of and and in that in that situation that's that is the worst scenario for equities as a market but the best scenario for commodities as a market which again plays into the fertilizer stocks they have they have tailwinds right now um >> well yeah it's not just fertilizer stocks it's more >> cost of food goes up like everything goes up with this because everything's tied to oil and energy Energy is

24:58 everything. Like so I've been saying that for for a really long time. I I don't think that that changes whatsoever. And also the good part about the market is that nobody is questioning the fact that we are in fact in the middle of a generational data center buildout, right? So like that is not in question. So you see if you find stocks that have all those kind of themes tied together, that's your best case scen that's your A+ sentiments, right? So that is your micron. That is your sandus. That is your even cornine as long as they're not too expensive. Micron still I don't think that expensive which is crazy right cornine is more expensive now. So it's going to be held back. Even Freeport very expensive now but it's not going to break down right. Oxy VG all those kind of things not expensive now. They're

25:44 coming back in. A lot of those have doubled off the lows but as they go higher they're going to get a little bit more expensive. This what I'm showing right now on the screen is what is important for tomorrow. And this is what is priced into the market today. It's not an estimate. It's literally what's priced in today. And we've been watching this. You should be watching this as a trader. It's just cmer.com. Uh just I don't know if you want to drop a link. Doesn't really matter. People should be able to find this. But over uh I actually have this over like the last few weeks, we came in still pricing two two rate cuts for the year, right? So this was rate cut number one here that was priced in for June and then rate cut number two over here priced in for

26:30 September. It's about two weeks ago. Then last week we only have one rate cut priced in for the entire year. Actually, I think the year ends here, right? So, this is where the year cuts off. So, we had one, two cuts, then we have one cut here, and then the second cut a week ago. This is before CPI, before GDP came in. And now we've barely got a 40% probability that we get one in December. And the next one isn't actually priced until December of 2027. So why it's about commentary tomorrow? It's because this is what's current is it what's true? We don't know. But it is

27:17 what is currently priced into the market. So commentary matters a lot where if he says, you know, we're not really worried about inflation. It's going to be uh what's his word? Um transitory. Then >> I don't want to hear that tomorrow. We if he says transitory tomorrow, the market and the headlines are going to flip out and he needs to stay away from that word. The the worst thing Pal could do is back us into a corner. I don't know if Worsh We don't know because we have a new Fed share coming in in May, but we don't want Worsh feeling like he's backed into a corner either. And if we don't get two or more rate cuts this year, you have a lot of debt rolling over that has to get refinanced. whole another issue right there. >> The housing market is not going to get unlocked. You still have people not

28:04 moving. You still have mortgages too high and corporate debt runs on five and 10 year cycles. What was five years ago, 2021? What what was that coming out of COVID? Rates were next to nothing. So, >> is it better where it is now than where it was a year and a half ago? Yes. But it's still not low enough where earnings and profitability will be compressed if companies have to roll over debt at these levels if they borrowed five years ago because the spread is significantly more. So it is incredibly important for oil to get back to the sweet spot of 55 to 65 because at that point >> I don't think it's I don't think we see that anytime soon after after we depleted the SPR. There's no shot that we're getting all the way back. It's not

28:50 happen. >> I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's incredibly important that it gets back to that level. That is the sweet spot where everybody makes money. Wheels can turn smoothly. >> Without that, >> you're you're floating with a very difficult economy. >> We were 40 for a while. I think I think realistically 7580 is where we kind of like level out for a while >> probably. And look, the big thing now is you got Medic um laying off 20% of the workforce. You got Black laying off 4,000 people. You got Morgan Stanley laying off 2%. >> This is the unemployment piece. Yep. >> Yeah. So now you add unemployment on top of it. Now you start getting the headlines of recession in a month or two popping up. If oil doesn't come down and if Pal's hawkish tomorrow and then if another company comes out with layoffs,

29:36 you wait. We will get recession fears starting in a month or two. >> Yeah. >> And that will make this a very hard market. So this is the cycle for the for the the super technical people that aren't into fundamentals that what he's talking about is we have essentially like the main the main market goldilocks then we have uh we have an inflationary or reflationary cycle and then we have um we have a deflationary cycle or disinflation right disinflationary deflation a little different right the one that we don't like is stagflation but stag but stagflation is categorized exactly by weak growth, high unemployment, and persistent and high inflation. And that right there is the worry. So, while it can have that that stagflationary nuance at the moment,

30:24 that's that's kind of what we're looking for. So, if you want to see uh we can have like high inflation, and that's okay if if we're going to be in a reflationary situation, right? So like reflation meaning like there's some kind of policy stimulus um or or growth really like we have the growth can over overcome all of this. Um in the meantime I can't believe I'm getting to use all these old slides. Do I not have it here? Oh I don't think I have it on this. In the meantime, there's really like the main man I don't have it sectors that will do really well, but in in that in that stagfl Oh, look at that.

31:10 Look at this. I'm like seemingly somewhat prepared. >> I love it. And you didn't even know we were going to talk about this. I love it. >> No. So like in a stagflationary economy, by the way, this is like a 100redyear give or take data set. The best trade and nearly the only trade commodities and gold. What is the best performing stocks right now and and commodity is where it's at. But equities don't do great. It's not horrible, but it's it's, you know, it's it's the roughest time for them. So those are the four kind of general cycles within the market. And we like to be in Goldilocks. So in order to get there, we don't actually have to have inflation come all the way down, but we do have to have growth come back up. So even if we have this high unemployment, it's very much about the relationship between interest or between

31:58 inflation and GDP, which is going to dictate what the the rest of the market people look at. So to that end, uh tomorrow's a big deal because if this is overshot to the downside, like one good thing I'm looking at here is like what can he say to make this work? Can he actually say anything to make this worse? >> I don't know. >> Make it worse. Yes, he can say a lot of things to make it worse. Can he say things to >> calm people? He can. I don't think he's going to. I just think he's going to be hawkish because why not at this point? He hates Trump. Trump hates him. He's leaving in two months. He's going to be hawkish. I think people are most I think in reality everybody's

32:45 I mean I don't know that he's gonna be hawkish because he's going to be worried about his legacy too, right? Like he doesn't want to be known as that guy. So he I think he's going to want to leave it in a good spot for sure. Um and he he is in a rock in a hard place. But worst case scenario, this this one rate cut that we have priced in only at a 40% probability for December, by the way, gets ripped completely out of the forecast, right? That's worst case scenario. I think even if that's the case, I would rather have this band-aid ripped off sooner than later, quite frankly, to set me up for some better longs later, because they'll go ahead and overshoot this regardless. Um, but this I think that's it's already pushed

33:30 out so far. Uh, and and what I could say about the market, so back to the charts, the market really does want to go higher. I'll tell you what, um, just I would have thought that this market would have come down significantly more a long time ago. Like by by at this point, we technically should be a lot lower. But again, we have we we all we have a lot of reasons to go up. Also, generational data center buildout. I mean, record earnings, by the way, that's not changing. Um, and there are a lot of good things to look forward to. So, this is that kind of like whipssaw bounce or balance that we're we're we're dealing with. The biggest thing right

34:16 now is uh from a technical perspective, we are we are not out of the weeds. So these lines here, I'm a very I I I use fundamentals actually uh to create technical levels for me. And the biggest uh fundamental event that we get every month is uh what's the biggest fundamental event that we get every month Steve? >> Biggest fundamental event >> macro number. Yeah. >> I mean it depends what your opinion is. Some people would say >> I just want I want to know your opinion. >> Some people would say GDP. Some people would say CPI, some people would say PCE. I mean, I think it's a combination of several things. It's not just one number for men. >> GDP, we get revisions. So,

35:01 >> I'm gonna >> and also unemployment's huge. >> Okay. So, I'm going to say NFP, which is unemployment or a flavor of NF NFP, right? Because that is how many jobs were taken the prior month as long as we have current data. What I can tell you is that there's a little hack to the market that I've got over the years and that is that the the when we do get non-farm payroll numbers, it's so important to the trend that it actually marks like a critical level. So here's just as an example, this is last February's non-farm payroll day. And most people don't tie technicals to fundamentals like this. If you were, we did a webinar about this just recently. People will probably remember it, but this is the day that we got that non-farm pays for fe for February. 697

35:47 was the high, 689 was the low. 88% of the time that day actually in fact marks the higher low for the entire month moving forward. Believe it or not, it's a crazy stat. You'll never find a better stat. Um, and so within 1%, right? And so here we are on March. So what I can tell you is that this is definitively resistance right now. So something has to substantially change in the market sentiment fundamentally also for this to for us to actually get over that. In the meantime, we don't have this is our March um NFP level. So we have a couple little wicks above and below. This is actually within my 1% kind of uh range on both ends, both of the high and the low.

36:34 But I'm gonna go ahead and add this is just an indicator that we use. Um, and if we do break down, the next stop is 651, right? And so I I do not unless we're over 678, which is the NFP low for March, we're just not we're just not going higher. And if we do get over that, then we're we're looking at 690s, mid690s one more time. Um, in the meantime, this is a this is definitive place to like sit and wait because we're likely um if we if we can't get if we can't hold over 669 670 because we're at support. This is support um the next level lower is is the low 650s. So,

37:20 that's where we would go uh if we break down this week. So, you'd see that you'd honestly see that probably by next week as your target. And that that's going to line up from a chart perspective. So that was a fundamental that would actually reperric us back to September of last year, which in fact may not be that bad. And that's going to line up right here with these kind of like what we call when you see something like this on the chart with like big moves down that don't hold for very long. We call these like uh it's a funny word. A lot of traders call that I don't want to say liquid. You might call it like liquidity either. there there's old buyers and and and particip market participants sitting here at this level and they might same

38:06 thing like with Reddit they might remember oh I bought here 650 it's a nice psychological route number um I'm not going to use the 200 day simple as which is the red line as support it's it's just not that um in the meantime it's more like a magnet so if it's closer if price is closer to this red line which is the 200 day simple moving average I know I'm on a 30-minut a chart, but that is locked to the daily time frame. It's going to get kind of sucked into that and it may overshoot, right? So, it may overshoot something like this and you might see something like that and you'd be looking for this kind of scenario um to hold at that point. So, that's that's legitimately what I'm thinking. I don't see this going higher and if it does, it's not going to

38:52 it wouldn't be all-time highs. Um at least not this month. we'd have to see a substantial change so far like in in the rhetoric. There's too much there's too much uh worry in the market. So that's where we are on SPY. I I could say also from like a daily range perspect or a weekly range perspective an average week's range actually takes me to 680 to the upside on spy and an I believe this an average week's range on spy average we we could in we could see 650 that would be an average move on the S&P 500 to drop 20 points from here over the last uh 18 weeks. That's about the

39:39 average range that has moved. So, it's kind of crazy, but that's spy. Q's are very similar. Um I think the two charts that I usually run into after this, and then we can start running into other tickers are IGV, which is kind of like in the forefront of it's like the blast zone, right? This is the software sector. Uh an ETF that tracks the software sector. It's kind of bottomed out, but it's still it's not getting a lot of not a love. Not a lot of love. This is at the first general area of support. We're doing okay. So, this is the one where if this bounces, this is like your service now. This is your Salesforce. This is your um

40:24 really beat down software names right here. not necessarily like a solar fintech but specifically software like maybe crowd strike Microsoft Palanteer very heavy weighted components here um and then RSP is the other one which kind of lost well it's lost its general trend this has been the market's kind of saving grace which is the equal weighted S&P 500 so the combination of these two things the deal is right now that we want to see these two ETFs RSP and IGV trade in sync in the same direction. So if if both IGV and RSP are going higher, we basically are going to see all-time highs. Like if they're if if they're

41:10 both going lower, no question we're going to see 650 or below. If they're going in opposite directions, we're very much likely to be choppy or sideways because it's still that broadening thesis under underneath the market. That's what that's going to be. So whether it's IGV getting a bounce and some of that money rotating out of RSP into that sector, that's what we'll be seeing or if RSP is going back up, it's because right now a lot of software getting sold off again and going lower. So um that's the kind of sentiment and I think from there we could we could pick out some other stocks. I saw you put some others in there. >> Yeah, let's do Nvidia because we have the conference and selfishly I have a ton of money in it. So >> do you >> I have a bunch of money on video.

41:55 >> So Nvidia I mean Jensen's comments is getting digested right now. I think the one comment GTC in a in a in a single line is we have sight to at least $1 trillion through 2027 in AI demand and we'll probably be short. Uh I think what he meant by that was that his estimate is going to be low like he might be sandbagging. The market likes the market is expecting expected Jensen to be like all sunshine and rainbows. So that I don't think that was uh a big thing. It's a big number. But this is where I would have to lean on you Steve and say what does that put this? So if if

42:43 Jensen's now saying 1 trillion in revenue through 2027, how how different is that from the prior estimates? That's the biggest question. >> It's actually depending on how you interpret what he said. It's right on the money with the estimates because the slide said 2025 through 2027. So you have to assume that's three fiscal years. I think he's saying fiscal or like calendar 2027, not necessarily fiscal. >> So if you So let's just say he's thinking like one out year. >> Yeah. So but think about it on the slide from GTC it said 1 trillion 2025 through 2027.

43:29 >> So that would be three years worth of revenue. One trillion. Now keep t what Tanner said to me is that was just on the Vera Rubin. It wasn't Vera Rubin Ultra. It wasn't on anything else. So >> I didn't hear that. I >> I don't know if that's true or not, but when I look at where the analysts have the revenue, they have 367 billion this year, 468 billion next year. So that's right there. So that's a trillion right there. >> Well, that's 850. And then when you add in last year, it's roughly a trillion. >> Okay. So we'll take 850, right? I think that's I I think you could actually run with that. So the 850 is where we were

44:16 before right? >> Yeah. So this year they're expected to do 367 billion and then next year they're expected to do 468 billion. So that's roughly 850 right there. So that's about 17% higher than where what you're saying give or take. I'm sorry I'm really bad at math. I'm poor Asian. But uh that sounds like about give it give or take 15% increase. So I think best case scenario legitimately you could probably look for that because and and but this conversation is though like it sounds like such a big number, right? you're like, "Oh, it's a trillion dollars in revenue." But the only thing that moves stocks is what's different if

45:03 is is if something's different than what was already priced in. So if Steve I'm trusting Steve that is it was 850. I'm going to take the low number 850 priced in already through 2027. Now we're saying at least a trillion if not more. We'll just have to go with the trillion. And so that's about a 15% increase that The problem is we don't know if that's actually true or not only because right >> the slide specifically said 2025 through 2027. So does that mean 2627 or does that mean 25 26 27? So that that that's the question it does he mean from the end of 25 to 27 which is two years or is he including 2025?

45:49 >> So I think over the coming weeks that'll get cleaned up. I I think he's gonna >> his intention the way I heard it was that it was it was meant to be like I'm gonna say this but I'm not going to tell you I'm sandbagging but within the context of how I'm saying it and what I said before and what I said after this is a s sandbag number. So but again the market's taking that with a grain of salt. I I think like best case like you you can see that 210 again but not really a whole lot and that's that's about 15% 10 to 15% based on those fundamental numbers also I have that with the chart right so I have all of that kind of lined up downside is the same so the the chart doesn't really go anywhere unless you're below 175 but I

46:35 think fundamentally if it's appropriately valued right now which I think we could say it is if the value should be at best case I don't know 10% higher you can give it a 210 um thereabouts kind of like price target which which means that this is not like the greatest discount here uh but the lower it goes it's it's a solid discount you you could get into that 210 area one more time pretty easily um but the market needs the appetite for it so because of where we are I think it's just the digesting of what's going on as everybody floods out of GTC, which ends on Thursday, they'll go back to their offices and they'll talk to all their people and and more information will start coming out over the coming weeks.

47:21 Um, but what what I could say is like sub 170, under 170 down to like legit, you know, 160, I just call it 160s. That's going to be your lowerend support. This chart does not look good um at all from a technical perspective. It it looks like a don't touch me chart, but that just means that I don't have a reason to go anywhere. It actually I don't mean it looks bad. I I just mean that it looks like a barcode. It's just going to go sideways, which is perfectly fine for a lot of people. I would be perfectly happy selling like upside 210 cover calls. >> That's fine if you want to sell cover calls. So when I look at the fundamentals of Nvidia, this is a stock that if it traded at 225 right now, it

48:10 would still look cheap. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. If you're if you're if the market still has the appetite for the same forward PE kind of metrics, which which is I think what's most >> it's the cheapest in the mag seven on a forward basis. >> So again, it's why it's not it's not coming down. I don't I don't see a reason to say this is going to to like the gool log by any means, at least not right now. If it was under 170, sure, but it's also not at a at a screaming discount here either. So, I think it's pretty >> support line that we need to worry about. >> Um, so help me understand for you, what would you worry about? I mean, I'm not selling regardless unless something

48:57 changes, but more if I want to start writing um cash secured puts to get more, where's that support line that I would not want to go past >> 123? It's a it's a long ways down but um that's if all that so the cash secured puts I mean I think technically so what we do is we measure statistically from this low which is 86 the relative low in April 2025 and then to the most recent high a normal pullback is going to be about 50% measured pullback that's pretty pretty normal typical and that actually puts us

49:43 puts it exactly at 150. So at 150, this this pullback is actually 50%. From here to here, 50% is an okay discount. It's not a screaming discount. It's very basic. It's what you what you expect to see most the time. Um 135 is a discounted level. So if I got to 135, I would absolutely want to be selling cash secured puts. But if I wanted to do something like that right now, you you would actually manufacture yourself away to be able to be what we call put the stock with a cost basis of 135 or lower right now. So I don't know that you can do that just yet. >> All right. So let's change it. What if

50:28 you're going to write cover calls? What would you not want to go past? >> 165. And so, um, I think right now you can easily write some covered calls at the 200 plus level and collect probably a significant sum. Not the not the near-term stuff, but, you know, the market's not trending up either. So, this is the perfect time to do things like this. I'd probably go to January just swaging this at this point, 2027. And again, if you have an upside target of two, like look, I could sell a $200 call for Jan 2027 and I collect $25 per share, which would give me an exit of

51:14 $225 per share, which by the way, it's never traded at. Uh that's probably a closer upside target anyways. And it protects about $25 of downside protection. So if this does happen, I'm actually protected down to here at the same time while manufacturing myself an exit up here. So if this happens, I would probably then I'll probably just leave the call. Then I would start looking at selling puts down at 135. >> Okay, >> that's how I would do this right now. I would not be buying leaps or anything like that un like this is going to be catalyst driven. So there's going to have to be some kind of crazy news event. It's not GTC. Uh I have to, you know, there's things like, you know,

52:01 HIMS or whatever. You're not going to see something like that, like the HIMS chart getting uh the lawsuit dropped. You're not going to see that in the chart or Nebus. We should look at Nebas. >> Yeah. A while ago, Nebius because that shot up yesterday and it came down today because they issued shares just like they should have. >> Just like agreed, right? So, so this is Nebius. This has been like a beautiful premium seller stock right here. You're not gonna see this move in a or like this kind of a news headline. This whatever from 112 to 135. You're not going to see that in a chart. That's a catalyst thing. Um you just have to know the stock. And what I know right now is that this is historical resistance. Um

52:46 two things going on, right? So one, Nebius, I think people own Nebius. Nebius Nebius for um for this kind of event, right? Like the the first deal with Microsoft um cracked them like way over here, like from 60 to 100 something. And I think we could look at this time in history as as what to generally expect. Um and and I don't think that this is going to be the last deal for Nebius. It might be the last one that they announce for a little bit until they announce another, you know, um, deal with with some other hyperscaler, which you still have Amazon, you still have Google to go. So, those are probably coming, those announcements, but in the meantime, they do need to raise money. So, you expect this kind of stuff. 108 was prior resistance here,

53:35 right here. And so what I'd like to see out of Nebius is this actually come back and hold 108 for a while and create a new base at which point I I think you could expect that to actually hold. So 108 was prior resistance and that would that would ideally be future support. If I just took actually yeah from this low even from here it's about 100. I don't think it's from there, but like from this very recent low. Yeah. As close to 100 as you can. If it's holding that that area, I think that's becomes the next in the best case scenario around $100 becomes the next

54:21 area of support, which which would be a higher low. But net net, this is actually still kind of stuck in this sideways pattern. Um, so this one is more equity or if you do like a like a Chris Patel flavored um situ. I actually have some leap spreads on this because it's going to be a highf flyier, right? You're going to get a big headline. Um and uh and that that's expect them to raise on you. But it's if you like the storyline, this is in a sector where again there's no question the market's not questioning whether or not um whether or not they're actually spending on the data centers. Nebas I like

55:06 because it's more global versus the others. Um, they all kind of have this little flavor that reminds me of the uh uh the old crypto miners, which I'm not a big fan of, but but anyways, it's it'll it'll just be a trust and transparency thing from here. But I would assume that there's more deals coming along with more delilution. >> So, how about coreweave? A lot of people look at the same respect. So coreweave I think can get squeezy, but I would have to lean on you again for the fundamentals. Like is this expensive or cheap? And um and that >> I tried Nebius instead of coreweave because the balance sheet was so much freaking better. So did I. Well, I not that's not why I did, but I did do Nebus

55:53 instead of Corewave, but um Coreweave had some things on the private credit thing way back when. Um I mean early anyways. Uh so that kind of kept me away. Uh this this I think I think you're okay to nibble at Cororeweave. I just don't know if it's like super expensive or not. And I think that's the biggest issue for me. Um, you got seeking profit over there, right? >> I do. >> And there's no earnings. It's negative 2.5 EPS trailing 12 months. Um,

56:42 >> how would we how would we even value this? I mean, it's a 404 billion dollar market cap and they're not expected to be profitable until 2028. Huge revenue growth this year and next year. 142% this year, 86% next year. The problem I had with Cororeweave over Nebius is when I look at the long-term debt, they had almost 15 billion of long-term debt on the balance sheet and they're burning through cash. They've never turned a profit. Nebas just fundamentally looked better. And then you have the investments on the balance sheet, um, clickout and the other stuff. >> Yeah. EV to EVA 29.46.

57:28 Wow. Um, I feel like it's getting more expensive. Is that right? Like as I'm looking at these numbers, is it getting more expensive? That's wild. Um, this one look so 70 65 bucks was support. I think coming into GTC, this would have just been like a a trade. Like, is Jensen gonna mention Cororeweave? 90% probability he does mention Coreeave. So, from a sentiment perspective, GTC is pretty much over. He didn't really say anything great about Coree. He didn't make, at least that I saw so far, any like big effort to go

58:16 out of his way to talk about Cororeweave. So, it's not that we don't think that Jensen the AI sugar daddy doesn't love Cororeweave anymore, but um maybe he has some some new friends named Nebius Nebas. And that's just the kind of shiny shiny coin at the moment. >> So, I need you to do a chart. I had. So, one of my friends texted me her daughter wants to buy a drone company and Dookie Pie mentioned the same exact company in chat. Odds >> on us. >> I know nothing about this freaking company. >> It's a drone company. >> Yeah, I went on the website. A drone company. They're buying some Israeli

59:04 uh defense company. You don't know Andas? >> No. >> Do you know Kratos? >> I've heard of it. I've never looked at it. >> So, the other the other thing in the in the So, so Cororeweave, just to tie off on this, I you actually have to go all the way back to IPO. And so, like the IPO high at post IPO, the first trade high is like 65 bucks. So that that $65 high is acting as your general support right now. If it loses that you you can go significantly deeper. Uh I just don't I just don't know if it's cheap or expensive right now. And the and this will trade based off of sentiment very

59:50 much so. So you have to be very close to the sentiment. Um I can't speak to the fundamentals. Steve's not Steve's not telling me it's cheap so it doesn't sound like it is. >> Okay. So, he's telling me it's expensive, so it could be freaking, you know, SMCI 2.0. Who knows? Um, on sorry, uh, ONDOS is is okay. So, what I would say is that on we've had this, this is a this is the chart of um, right here, right now. Um I they're going to report earnings I think tomorrow. I believe tomorrow.

1:00:36 >> Do do they really? >> Yeah. So first of all, you don't want to like gamble on earnings typically. And this this this comes back to >> next week they're doing 325. >> 325. >> Yeah. >> Okay. This comes back to like are you are you gambling or what what are we doing here? Um you you ha this is this is going to be insanely expensive. Um so it has to have continued momentum and I I believe it's going to be very expensive. Technically speaking it's perfectly sound. It's in an okay place meaning it's not in an at risk place. It doesn't have the issue of being like at risk from uh

1:01:25 like the software thing or any of that kind of stuff. It might have a hard time getting funding if we have a private credit crisis. Um but it is is defensive as in like drones, defense stock. Um so the the the issue then becomes well if there's a ceasefire the appetite for these kind of things might go away. And so what valuation might be propped up now might have some kind of war premium priced in at some flavor. So those are my kind of warnings here. Technically speaking 16 plus is where it should go. You could actually see $18 and a half from here which represents a pretty good trade. um 60% from here. I on a stock like this

1:02:13 with what we call like a lowflat um like5 billion dollar market cap. It's not it's not hard for that kind of stock to do this. But don't expect it to hold and don't expect it to be the next Palunteer either. So, it's it's more it's more um it's more trading entity or if you just hold it long term, cool. But like just nibble at it and and you wouldn't sell it at at $18 long term anyways. You would just kind of let this let the the longer term thesis play out that they'll become a prime if that's if that's in the card. So a stock like this I think you do have to look at it's very much about contracts um like the government contracts who who's ramping are they able to take out is the

1:03:00 government going to bid a larger contract like run a larger RFP uh and and is on like on the docket or going to be bidding on said RFP which you know a lot about right? >> Yep. >> All right. How about Microsoft? Steve, I have a question. >> Yes. >> When you run an RFP? >> Yes. >> Wait, do people know where you work? >> No. >> Great. Don't ever tell them because I want to ask you a question. If they did tell, if they knew, then you wouldn't be able to tell me. When you run an RFP, do you do you before it closes or before you even open it, do you already know who's going to win? >> No. >> Really? >> No. >> Are you in procurement or or are you

1:03:47 helping No, I I I am the person who runs the RFP. >> So, I I I will tell you this. >> You don't know who's going to win before you list the before you even open it up? >> No, >> dude. >> No. >> I mean, I never I never bid on an RFP if I didn't know I was going to win. >> So, you you may be talking about RFQ, not RF. I mean, so you're so when you're going to bid, >> I get that, but that's not what I'm normally doing. What So you got to think about it like this. >> Build the RFP. >> If if I when when I build the RFP and I

1:04:34 call up all the vendors and I talk to all the reps and I get the regional directors on the phone and I put it out. So for our ERP system, Okay. >> Yeah. I'm thinking about how much I can actually say. What I will say is the four largest ERP vendors were in it along with another eight companies because we looked at HIS systems and ERP systems. >> Yes. Standalone HRIS and we looked at full ERP suites. We had no idea who we were going with and here's why. when you that RFP took about six to eight months and we had HR, we had finance and in

1:05:20 finance we had the different silos. You had payroll, you had accounts payable, you had budgets, you had GL, you had learning and talent. There were all different things and we had to make sure that every module worked well. It was a six to eightmonth process. I had no idea. And look, the way I run it, I'm not the subject matter expert. I'm the one running it. So I need >> you don't know >> no >> like if you're going through the demos and everything one company may be stronger in one area where another one may be stronger in another one there's a lot of things that come down and then if you have two that are neck and neck then it comes down to terms and pricing >> right I think so for people that don't know RFP means like request for proposal RFQ

1:06:07 means request for quote so it's like if you have a big job usually the process to do a multi multi-million ion dollar contract talking tens of millions of dollars contract. >> It's a lot of time and effort on the vendor's part to go through. >> Yeah. It's took so much time for us to even put the proposal together. It's like I'm not wasting my time unless >> I you would love me. >> I don't know. Most RFPs I I only put 20 questions. Now, for the ERP one, I had a lot, but a lot of them, >> my philosophy is if I have to ask you to answer a hundred or 200 questions in an RFP packet, >> you don't know what you're doing. I feel you in a face to face meeting. I look I I did even for governments I would go we

1:06:54 had one RFP I I can remember was upgrade an entire school district's network including Wi-Fi and switching which means that I need the entire blueprint for a district not one campus a district of schools every building on the schools like draw up blueprints put them all out there that's a lot of work get all the quotes all the services like turnkey solution uh that's that was like mult multi months, probably 20 people or more just to put everything together. It's a lot of work. So, I mean like we would want to know. Uh that's why I asked. So, anyway, >> yeah. I mean, look, when we did it for construction for a new office, I didn't know what construction company was going to win, and I'm talking 75,000

1:07:39 square feet in the middle of New York City, like souped the knots. >> Yeah. And >> those are big freaking jobs. Why are these guys shorting uh who who's shorting Iran for the next few months? >> So, let's go to >> RFP government are the worst. >> Let's do Microsoft. >> Oh, yeah. You said Microsoft. So, I like I like Microsoft in general. So, this is what's weird right now. Like if you like Microsoft as an investment, go ahead and start dollar cost averaging today. >> Yeah. At at at a at a at a slow snail's pace and and hope to God that it goes lower. Does it go lower? I don't know.

1:08:26 Right. Like it's possible, but I don't have a reason for it to go lower. Now the ne like it's right here. Literally right here, right now. This is your dollar cost average spot. Shoot one shot or however many shots you have planned and then wait a few months, but don't add again until you're like sub 350, like three, it could go 370, but in this general area over here right now, you can go ahead and like DCA, dollar cost average in this between under 400 uh anytime it's around 400. It doesn't even matter. I I wouldn't even on Microsoft I wouldn't even be that concerned about it. Like this is one I could buy and just like really not worry about it and pray to God it goes lower because I'm perfectly happy. Um but I

1:09:13 would if I saw another dip I would buy it again at 350 after doing this general area. So 350 or sub 350 sorry this is 2021 all-time high and 2023 area of support. So this is it's below 350. I'm using very round numbers for Microsoft because it's a it's over the years what I will say is that Microsoft you can be really explicit about a lot of things but Microsoft is one that doesn't always give you the best discounts. When you get good dis excuse me good discounts it's it's usually less discount. in the pandemic, Microsoft was the first Mag7

1:09:59 to recover and it was the it was the smallest dip of all the Mag7s also just FYI. So, it's from a long-term perspective, it it does have a pretty good premium and I don't think it's going to lose that premium even amidst all this IGV software sharing against. I think if anybody, this is my fundamental thesis, if if anybody ends up buying out some of these lower tier software companies, Microsoft's probably be going to be the one company that has the cash flow and cash on hand to actually do it. So, from a sustainability perspective, I'm not worried about Microsoft. It's just a question of the PE compression, which is what we're dealing with right now. So, um, sub 400 as close to 370 as you can.

1:10:44 if you see it. I don't know that we'll ever see that we see that right now. If the bottom falls out, then that's closer to 335 on Microsoft, which again I really like. Um here now the reason it is an initial like DCA is because th this broader and this is a very long chart. I mean it's a great looking chart. Um this is actually at the bottom of what we call like a trend line. So this green line I'm just connecting this low, this low. This is the trend line right here. People will talk about um this area right here from a chart perspective and say, "Oh, this is what we call like a double top." It is in fact a double top, but when we have a a pattern like this, we actually have measured moves. So these that that is

1:11:31 actually like one, two, three times the consolidation area. That double top has already played out. So I don't need to worry about that anymore. What I'm

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