Trump Is FURIOUS With Rubio For This One Simple Reason

Brief Summary

This episode of "The Rest Is Politics US" analyzes the political implications of Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsom's appearances at the Munich Security Conference, contrasting their approaches to foreign policy and domestic appeal. It also examines the economic challenges facing the US, including inflation, unemployment, and the impact of Trump's policies, while also touching on the upcoming midterm elections and potential shifts in voter sentiment.

  • Marco Rubio's speech and meetings with European leaders signal a potential shift in Republican foreign policy, emphasizing civilizational ties and defense spending while downplaying democracy and green energy.
  • Gavin Newsom's presence at the Munich Security Conference highlights his aspirations for national leadership, but his message may not resonate with American voters focused on domestic issues.
  • The US economy faces challenges such as inflation, unemployment, and the impact of tariffs, which could affect Trump's approval ratings and the outcome of the midterm elections.

Intro

The hosts introduce the episode, setting the stage to discuss Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference and his subsequent meetings with European leaders, particularly those aligned with MAGA principles.

Marco Rubio's Speech and European Trip

Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference focused on protecting white European culture and urging Europe to increase defense spending, while downplaying democracy and green energy. His subsequent visits to Slovakia and Hungary, countries aligned with Donald Trump's MAGA agenda, raised eyebrows. Rubio's message to Europeans was that while the US would protect shared civilizational values, it wouldn't support "woke" policies. Some interpret Rubio's actions as an attempt to position himself as a more traditional Republican alternative to Trump, signaling a potential shift in American foreign policy under a future Rubio presidency. However, others view it as a continuation of Trump's "America First" approach, with stricter terms for European allies.

Trump's Reaction and Rubio's Narrow Path

Donald Trump reportedly disliked Marco Rubio's Munich speech because it sounded too much like establishment Republicanism and shifted the spotlight away from him. Traditional Republicans hope Rubio's performance signals an alternative to the Trump/Vance wing of the party. However, Rubio faces a narrow path to the nomination, needing to appeal to both the MAGA base and more moderate voters. His references to "civilizational decay" are seen as an attempt to appease the MAGA crowd, but it's uncertain if this strategy will be successful.

Gavin Newsom's Presence at Munich

Gavin Newsom's presence at the Munich Security Conference, along with other Democratic hopefuls, was aimed at reassuring allies that America hasn't abandoned them and showcasing their foreign policy credentials. Newsom acknowledged he was there to learn, displaying political skills by admitting his need for foreign policy advice. However, some argue that such appearances come across as global elite optics and freelancing foreign policy, potentially alienating voters focused on domestic issues.

Domestic Focus vs. Global Stage

There's a debate on whether Democratic hopefuls should focus on domestic issues rather than engaging in foreign policy on the global stage. Some argue that addressing domestic anxieties and focusing on improving disposable income for average Americans would be more effective. While having some foreign policy credentials is necessary, prioritizing domestic concerns and repeating a consistent message could resonate more with voters.

AOC's Performance and Obama's Enduring Appeal

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's performance at the Munich Security Conference was criticized, particularly her response to a question about defending Taiwan. The clip went viral, highlighting her lack of foreign policy expertise. Despite her charisma and success, the presidency requires negotiating skills and centrist support, which she may not yet possess. Meanwhile, Barack Obama remains a popular figure among Democrats, overshadowing other potential candidates.

Economic Challenges and Trump's Approval Ratings

Trump's approval rating among young voters has dropped significantly, indicating frustration with his policies. Despite a seemingly soft landing, the US economy faces challenges such as inflation, unemployment, and the impact of tariffs. The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those who have stopped looking for work, paints a less optimistic picture than the official unemployment rate. Trump's policies, such as tariffs and immigration restrictions, are contributing to economic uncertainty and hurting the people who voted for him.

Economic Outlook and Midterm Elections

MAGA world expresses frustration that their policies haven't juiced the economy as expected. While tax rebates may provide a temporary boost, companies are raising prices, offsetting any gains. The labor market is also facing challenges due to immigration restrictions. With Trump's job approval rating below 50%, historical data suggests the Republicans are in for a hammering in the midterm elections. The key is the K-shaped economy, where some are doing well while others struggle, and whether those struggling will vote the Republicans out.

Potential Rate Cuts and Economic Uncertainty

The economic team is expecting four rate cuts by the end of the year, but a criminal investigation against Jerome Pal could complicate matters. Corruption and lack of enforcement of bribery acts are also affecting the economy. While rate cuts may buffer the stock market, the president needs to pull back on tariffs. Economic uncertainty, driven by tariffs, immigration policies, and corruption, is creating a disaster for the American economy and hurting Trump's approval ratings.

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Transcript

Full transcript of “Trump Is FURIOUS With Rubio For This One Simple Reason”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.

0:00 Welcome to the rest is politics US with me Katty K and Robocop appears to be joining us from the Caribbean. >> All right, I'm going to take the glasses off Caddy, but I thought the glasses needed an appearance in the show. >> I think they deserve their own show. Actually those >> taking the glasses off. What are we talking about? Go ahead. So let's start with Marco Rubio's speech to the Munich Security Conference and then I think just as important the fact that Marco Rubio went from Munich to the two countries in Europe that are most MAGA aligned. He went to Slovakia and saw the prime minister there. Today he's in Hungary um seeing Victor Orban obviously very MAGA aligned. It didn't escape anyone's notice at the Munich Security

0:46 Conference that Marco Rubio gave a speech to all of these attendees which was really about sort of protecting civilizational aspects of white European culture, not so much protecting democracy and liberal democracy. And then he got a standing ovation because he didn't trash Europeans. He wasn't rude to European leaders like Donald Trump had been in Davos or JD Vance had been in Munich last year. But from my point of view, it was not a very different message. And the message to the Europeans is you've got to spend a lot more on your own defense. We'll be here to protect civilizational things that we agree with, but we're not going to be protecting all of that woke stuff that you might have liked in the past, including green energy. By the way, I'm not actually going to say anything about Ukraine and Russia, and then I'm going

1:31 to go and fly off and see the two leaders who are most aligned with Donald Trump in Europe. What did you make of it? Was this, you know, a big departure? Should Europeans heave a big sigh of relief? >> Uh, no. They shouldn't do that. And obviously he's going to Hungary as opposed to Germany, which is sort of odd because Hungary is an ally, but it's not really the European allies that we've traditionally would say are our top allies. Let's put it that way. But what I heard is Rubio is trying to tell the Europeans, hey, if for some reason I get the nomination uh and I become the president, I'm really actually an older school person than Donald Trump. I did hear that in the speech and I think that's why they

2:17 applauded. But what I also heard is that you guys are on your own unless you meet our terms and these are Donald Trump's terms. This is not like I just want to explain to people uh the state department would dictate the terms of our protocol and our diplomacy and in general caddy over the last 80 years the administration's adhered to that protocol and so Donald Trump obviously is ripping that up. You know, I I heard also as a Wall Street person, buy European defense manufacturing stocks because let me tell you something. Europe is going to have a reduced reliance on the United States and Europe

3:05 is looking at the United States and saying, "Wow, there is political instability in the United States." And so, you know, that's that's what I heard. And listen, what I don't like about Rubio is the weather vein. Okay? And trust me, Trump did not like that speech. >> Yeah, he's trying to have it every way, right? He's trying to appeal to the Europeans. I mean, Rubio actually comes out of the stock of American foreign policy, which is work with our allies. There's a post Second World War order. America should be a leader in that order. It's based around democracy. Rubio is the one who when the Russians invaded Ukraine actually stood up on the Senate floor and lambasted President Putin and Russian aggression and said we can never trust them. And

3:50 now that here he is not even mentioning Russia and Ukraine in his speech. But I think the other thing that was stark about this because this although we're talking about Munich, we're really actually talking about the 2028 race. Let's be honest here. There is Marco Rubio not actually making American foreign policy. So yes, he flies off to Slovakia and Hungary. If you're going to be charitable to Marco Rubio, there's a valid reason to do that because those two countries are buying a lot of Russian oil. And maybe he's going there telling them, "Look, guys, that's enough. You know, we're going to bang your heads together. You actually can't carry on defying our wishes and carry on buying Russian oil because that's propping up the Russian war machine." Maybe that's what he's doing in Slovakia and Hungary. But he doesn't actually make American foreign policy. Who's actually getting the White House's attention? Who's Donald Trump actually interested in this week to the extent

4:36 that he's interested in these issues? He's interested in Jared Kushner and Steve Wickoff who are the ones that are flying to Geneva right now who are going to negotiate with the Iranians and then are going to carry on with Russia Ukraine negotiations. Neither of them actually Senate confirmed. Neither of them elected officials. Neither of them as far as we know. Maybe Jared I'm wrong. Maybe they are thinking of running for president. But I thought Marco Rubio's appearance at Munich almost kind of underscored how little power he has. I mean, you talk about making foreign policy from the State Department. That just isn't what's happening now, right, in this administration. And so Marco Rubio is not the one making the power. >> Listen, I agree with you, but I want to just explain to people why Trump did not

5:21 like the speech. Uh Trump didn't like the speech because it wasn't JD Vance's speech. Uh Trump didn't like the speech because it wasn't Pam Bondi's excoriation of the senators last week. You know, Trump Trump wanted Rubio to go there and say, "Hey, listen, you beta males and you beta females. Uh we're the big dog in town. >> Washed up old Europeans." >> And by the way, you're letting your culture go. You know, I'm a white supremacist and you're letting your culture go by having immigration. And uh this is nonsensical and a result of which we're going to punish you. And oh by the way, if you haven't noticed, our supply of material to Ukraine has dropped to basically zero. Uh so you're

6:07 going to have to fix the Ukraine thing from your end while I'm doing an economic deal with Vladimir Putin. That's what Trump wanted to have happen. And then Trump wanted a couple of uh biting remarks against all the other European leaders. And then he would have said what he said about Pam Bondi's testimony to the Senate. That was fantastic. Fantastic. >> So if you're not rude, it doesn't wash basically. >> Yeah. I'm going to take people into the inner sanctum of Trump because I spoke to two guys that talked to him after Rubio's speech. That sounded like Bush Republicanism. That sounded like establishment Republicanism. And so he didn't like it. Okay. And last but not least with Rubio, it shifted the

6:53 spotlight away from Trump to Marco Rubio. Let me tell you something about Donald Trump. Do not, and I repeat, do not get a standing ovation from anybody while you are in the Trump administration unless your name is Donald J. Trump. Does everybody understand that? Can't have anybody in there that uh has Why are you laughing? Why you laughing? Well, cuz you know what makes me think? We've just been doing this series that we're doing for our founding member about the early years of Donald Trump and it's exactly the same. There he is, you know, trying to organize the ice rink to be rebuilt in Central Park. And what do the contractors say and the mayor say? There's only room for one person on the podium when it comes to taking the applause of the crowd and that's Donald

7:38 Trump. Hasn't changed. It was ever thus. >> So there you go. So, Caddyy, what are you hearing from the administration? >> People who are in the kind of more traditional Republican world who are hoping for a Republican nominee. I haven't spoken to anyone in the administration. I'm glad you managed to get hold of a couple of people that were close to Trump on this cuz that's interesting that he didn't like it. Doesn't totally surprise me. It's too soft. But for people who are in the kind of traditional Republican world, they are hoping that Marco Rubio's performance, they told me in Munich gave them a sense that yes, there is an alternative to JD Vance. There is somebody who still believes in a more as Munich was set up to do, celebrate John McCain and there's still a John McCain dinner that there's a kind of still a John McCain type wing for the Republican

8:23 party. I think what it highlighted for me, and we're going to talk about the Democrats in a minute cuz it was also super interesting watching all of them there. What it highlighted for me is this incredibly narrow path that Marco Rubio has to the nomination. I don't know that we are living in a political world that allows candidates to try to be multiple things to multiple audiences. We are living in this political world that rewards this kind of slightly weird concept of authenticity and sticking to your guns and a social media world that rewards that. And if Marco Rubio thinks he can do what he did in Munich but still keep MAGA on board, which is what I think he was trying to do with all of these references to civilizational uh decay, you know, he he talked about

9:09 this word civilizational he used as much as he used the word democracy. And let's be honest, what he means is white Europeans and white Americans in that context that you need to keep your countries and that your countries kind of homogeneous. Is that enough, do you think, to keep Marco Rubio popular with the MAGA crowd and try and peel away enough people in the center of American politics who don't like the Pam Bondi, JD Vance, Donald Trump tone of politics? >> So I So I don't think so. No, >> I don't think so either. I think it's too I think it's not possible. >> Hello out there. We need subscribers on YouTube. Some of you guys are watching without being a subscriber and we do love you, but we will love you more if

9:55 you subscribe, okay? It'll help us with the algorithm. Do us a favor. Press the subscribe button now. I'm not as appealing as Catty K, but I'm doing my best. Make me look good. Press the subscribe button. The other thing that's going to happen to Rubio now is he's going to become less and less relevant. So you mentioned Wickoff and Jared Kushner and I think they are basically the de facto secretaries of state. Uh and Rubio is out there, you know, on a little bit of a diplomatic tour. just want to contrast it briefly and get your reaction to this because I I listened to Nuome's entire speech and uh I was fascinated by that because there was levels of traditionalism in that and there was levels of expressing the importance of the coalition and there's

10:43 nuance to to Newsome speech in the sense that he has that Kissingeresque George Kennesesque diplomatic idea about America being stronger through the coalitions. But I think what I didn't hear, what I'm worried about for Nuome is underestimating the domestic appetite that Americans have for global leadership. Okay? I don't it could be overly idealistic. So I'm not one of Gavin's advisors, but if I was, I would say, Gavin, uh, the country's changed. People feel very stressed. Uh they've been told by Fox News and Donald Trump that we've overextended our commitments internationally and they want us to spend more time spending money here at

11:30 home. They're connected Caddy by the way. Okay. We the reason why the country's still got 26% of the global GDP is that our outside foreign policy strategy over 80 years and our inside domestic policy has generally been good. I mean we we we've we've missed the mark on deficit spending. Uh, but we've generally had the right ideas. And so I just think that there's got to be more nuance to what Newsome's saying because if he really wants to win the nomination and win the election, he's got to get some moderate Republicans in addition to the independents to vote for him. He's going to be cuz this stuff is going to be very close. But that that that was my reaction to Newsome in contrast in comparison to Rubio. I mean, let's talk about the Democrats because it was a

12:16 striking scene to see Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Governor Gazavan Newsome of California, uh, Alexandria Okaziocortez, Senator Ruben Ggo, and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, Governor Gretchen Whitman, and Gina Rayondo, all Democratic hopefuls making time in their very busy schedules to attend the Munich Security Conference to show themselves on the world stage. I mean, partly they were going there, as you and I found in Davos, we met Democrats who were going there in order to say, "Look, America hasn't abandoned you. There is another way." Gavin Newsome said it directly. Uh, Donald Trump will be gone. Don't think this is permanent. He's becoming a lame duck. He's got three more years and then things return to kind of normal. So you had the Democrats there giving that message, kind of promoting the

13:01 traditional American alliance message, but also, let's be honest, there in order to show that they had foreign policy credentials and national security credentials and show themselves on the world stage because those clips will then be part of their own campaign platforms when they run in 2028. So forget is caucuses, forget the New Hampshire primaries. It all starts in Munich. Apparently, it happens 3 years before the actual election, but that's why they were there. On on Gavin Newsome's message, I actually thought the most interesting thing Gavin Newsome said was not when he was speaking at the speech. It was in a s he gave lots of little interviews to people. He was very happy to get his name out there. He wanted to be covered an awful lot. He was sort of dominating the spotlight there. But one of the things that I thought was interesting that he said, he

13:47 acknowledged that he was in Munich to learn. and he said, "I'm not trying to give foreign policy advice. I need it." That to me showed a politician with political skills because going to Munich with all of these foreign policy experts and say, "Actually, I'm still learning and you guys can teach me things." I thought for for a politician who sometimes dismissed as being a little too perfect, perfect height, perfect hair, perfectly kind of, you know, presented. I mean, I'm sure it was studied vulnerabilities, studied openness, but it were I thought it was pretty effective. >> So, I'm I'm I'm going to push back and give you a different point of view and tell me what you think of it. I I think that >> it's the wrong form for them. >> They shouldn't be there at all. >> They shouldn't be there. It comes across

14:33 as global global elite optics to me. It also comes across as like you're freelancing foreign policy a little bit. you you know that America is overseas and we can't speak with one voice. Now, I recognize that Trump's voice is not their voice. And I recognize that with Trump having a 58 or 61% disapproval rating, it may not even be the voice of America on foreign policy. But I think playing domestic politics on foreign soil in an environment like this in the United States is a bad move. just me personally. >> You don't think that's a kind of old school type of thing that you that you don't talk about foreign policy on foreign soil and you stick with the

15:19 president? I just feel like that's gone out the window. These guys are there to get attention. >> I don't really necessarily have a problem with that. I I have a problem with the optics of it is how it's going to be viewed >> in places like Ohio, Arizona, Michigan. Uh it reinforces this perception that uh we're torn related to our foreign allies and nobody's addressing the domestic anxiety. They they would have been better off having a Michigan domestic conference uh to juxaposition the Munich Security Conference. They would have been better off having an Ohio domestic conference where they all got together. >> The risk for them is they wouldn't have got much attention. That's why they do it, right? They go because the press is there. They can get attention there.

16:07 They can break through. All of these people are trying to break through at the moment. >> Okay. But it looks it looks performative, Caddy. That's the I'm Listen, I'm I'm with you. I'm with you. But like it it could be for the average voter in America. It could be the wrong type of attention. >> Right. What are you doing abroad? Yeah. >> It could be for the media. It could be for the media elite. Good attention. It could be for Yes, I get that. They're they're they're experts, good attention. But if I'm a steel worker in Pittsburgh or an auto worker in Michigan, I really want to know what we're doing to improve my disposable income and to make my sons and daughters lives better than my life. That's really what I want to know. >> And even if they didn't get the attention, the notion that they did it and they stayed on it. See, see, one

16:53 thing they could learn from Trump is repetition. Right? You know, we learned in elementary school, repetition is the mother of memory, but they could be pounding the domestic agenda. And they could be having these quote unquote Michigan domestic conference, Ohio domestic conference, and promoting this and doing town halls with CNN and others. I think it would scare the daylights out of the Republicans because because the Republicans have not delivered on a domestic agenda, Katty. I mean, we're we're going to talk about the economy, I guess, later in the show. And even though the stock market is up, like I said to you 6 months ago, >> the policies that Trump is putting in place is actually hurting the people that more or less voted for him. And

17:39 that's the irony of it. So, to me, if they focus on those people, I think they can win back many of them. >> I think I think that's I think that's true. I think it's also true that you can't run for president of the United States with zero profile on national security and international affairs. >> Bill Clinton did it. As you remember, Bill Clinton did it, but you may be right today in 2026. Yes, I think I agree with you. Um, one person who didn't do herself any favors was Alexandria Okaziocortez, which actually who actually went with quite an interesting, you may agree with her or you may not, but went with a kind of theory of the case of global affairs based on income inequality, but had such a um weak performance when

18:26 she was asked that key question about what whether she would send American troops to protect Taiwan. and I listened to the whole thing and I think the answer is so excruciating that you should take a listen. >> Would and should the US actually commit US troops to defend Taiwan if China were to move? Um, you know, I think that uh this is such a uh you know, I I think that this is a um this is of course a a very long-standing um policy of the United States. Uh and I think what we are hoping for is that we want to make sure that we never get to

19:11 that point and we want to make sure that we are moving in all of our economic research and our global positions to avoid any such confrontation and for that question to even arise. The risk for somebody like Alexandria Kaziocortez or any of these Democratic hopefuls is that you turn up on the global stage and you don't do yourself any favors cuz that clip will be as it is being at the moment. It's kind of going viral online uh particularly being promoted by MAGATypes who love the fact that she messed up. But it was a mess up. It it showed her not particularly adept at that kind of field. Okay, you could argue that Donald Trump has compared Ukraine and Russia to two kids fighting in a playground or has told Iranian protesters that America would be with them when they weren't necessarily and

19:58 so he's messed up a lot as well and said things that are contradictory and incomplete. I think you have to have some foreign policy credentials and I guess that's why they were going there. >> So Caddyy, I I hear you on AOC. She did damage herself but and she's not ready. You know, I'm not one of her advisers either, but I would say to her, "Hey, listen. You're great on messaging. You're great on social media. You're great on movement mobilization, but if you're going to be the president, you have to negotiate with political opponents, and you have to develop some centristlike coalitional support. You're not going to get there on the hard left lane solo. You may get there in New York on the hard left lane, but to your points that you've made earlier on these shows about Mickey Cheryl or uh the

20:45 woman that won in in >> Virginia Spanberger, you got to have more of that. You got to manage the intraarty factions and she's not doing that. And so so so for those reasons, I don't think she's ready. Despite her charm, her charisma, she's a formidable and very successful politician. But I think the presidency requires something else. And again, hate Donald Trump, but he built quite a Republican coalition in the two times that he won the presidency. >> I think the key there is she's not ready. And I think even despite, you know, her policies on income inequality around national security, that clip showed she's not ready. If you can't have a good answer to a fairly obvious question about Taiwan, then you probably shouldn't be have your finger on the

21:31 nuclear button and be America's commander-in-chief, at least not yet. And I think I think that's why it was useful for me. I found that that's why it's useful having them go there. Um, by the way, the Democrat who's getting the most attention as all of these aspirational types that are rushing off to Munich, it turns out all you really have to do is go courtside at an NBA Allstars game and catch a ball efficiently. Cuz if you can do that, you get a standing applause. And if your name is Barack Obama, you're still the Democrat that actually all Democrats really love. >> The aliens are real Barack Obama. >> The We're going to talk about that with our founding members. The aliens. Oh, or maybe they're not for real. Actually real. Uh, he had a good weekend. Barack Obama is still the one that they all look to, which must hurt if you're Gavin

22:17 Newsome or AOC or any of the other other types who were there. I think that must be pretty tricky for them. But they would have liked the poll numbers. Quickly before we go to break, I do think it's worth bringing that up. The latest economist yuggov poll shows a swing that I don't think Anthony I have ever seen in American politics, a swing this big in a particular group of people. The poll that was released just a couple of days ago shows that Trump's approval rating among young voters, people ages 18 to 29, not us sadly, but anyway, young voters, has cratered since he took office last year. It's dropped by 51 points. Have you ever seen a swing that big in a group of people in the space of one year

23:04 from approval to disapproval of somebody? That's pretty dramatic. just just a sports team, you know, like I they the disapproval rating on the New York Jets, I think, has swung like that over the years and perhaps their British football teams that have had the same thing. But I I I I think that's something to really look at, Caddy, because >> me too. >> Trump is super frustrated by this. U so much so that Gallup, who has a lot of government contracts, has now said no more on approval rating uh polling. we're not going to do it anymore cuz they don't want to upset King Trump. Uh but you know, if you go to Pew Research and these others, if you're sitting at 36 37% I mean my reaction, this is terrible for me to say, but I'll say it.

23:50 I said, who the hell are these 36% that are actually supporting this nonsense? you know, I want I want to go out and interview every one of them, you know, but I I I I still think given the damage he's done internationally, the damage he's done to the economy, uh I I still think that the 36% number is surprising. You know, if the stock market rolls over and you have this underlying surface cracks in the economy that we're going to discuss, plus a poor stock market, which may not happen because the Fed will likely cut rates into this environment. But listen, he could end up with a 25% approval rating before this thing is over. Caddy, we're going to talk about the economy. So, we've been talking about it over the last 6 months. The uh the core headline, Caddy, is that there's a soft landing, but if you

24:36 really look at the data, there's not a lot to celebrate. Inflation is still north of 2%. The unemployment rate, while it's ticked down to 4.3%, there's something called the U6 unemployment rate. And I just want people to understand this in America because there are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics, Caddy. And so what ends up happening is we lower that number because if you've looked for a job for a year and you have not found a job, uh then you fall off of the unemployment role. But if you build in the U6 number, it's closer to 8%. Uh which means that there's a lot of people that are out of the labor participation market now. Uh which is a depressing

25:24 thing for the United States. So, so the reality, Caddy, is things are a little bit worse uh than the superficial numbers are showing. And a lot of this has to do with Trump's tariffs. It has to do with the tension overseas. It has to do with the complaints by American manufacturers, Caddy, that need products from overseas that they're paying for. And again, I'll use the example of Boeing. if they're going to make an aircraft here in the United States, 60% of the parts are coming from overseas and they've now uh incurring those taxes, if you will. Uh so what do you what do you make of the economy and what are you hearing inside the beltway? >> I hear from people in MAGA world that they're that there's quite a lot of

26:11 frustration that they feel they have done all of these things that ought to be juicing the economy particularly around the big beautiful bill. They send a lot of money out into the country. They're hoping that the tax rebates that Americans are about to receive in the post, which should be something like $3,600 higher than the average tax rebate, which is usually around $3,000, that people will feel richer and they'll start spending. I mean, what you hear from people in the president's circle is it's going to get better. It's going to get better. It's going to get better. We have primed the economy for a midterm rally effectively that we know it was bad last year, but very soon Americans will start feeling that it's better because these tax cuts and the tax rebates will filter through and people

26:57 will have more money in their pockets. But then you hear from companies, from the private sector, exactly what you're just saying, which is that a lot of companies said they're actually about to start raising prices. They swallowed a lot of the tariff cuts as we've said before, but you've now got companies like Levis's McCormick and Company who saying that actually we're going to be raising prices on things like jeans and household goods and industrial products a lot more than we normally would at this stage in the year. And so prices could actually be of general household things could actually about to go up further. When you look at those polls that we mentioned earlier, Anthony, the big drop off has been around the two issues of immigration obviously and the activities of ICE around the country, but also around the economy and prices.

27:42 So, I don't know if the president, can the president, you tell me this, you've spoken about this, can they do something to turn around this perception that the thing he ran on successfully, he hasn't actually managed to deliver on? >> I think it's going to be tough. I mean, I think we you have the affordability issue which is really weighing on uh the average person. I think the other the other big issue which we have to address is the labor market. So, he's thrown the people out of the country. Uh and so it's had a chilling effect on GDP. If you actually just look at the labor numbers, we need more workers. Uh we had the workers in the country. He's throwing them out of the country. you know, the the global pressures on tariff and trade uh are injecting a tremendous

28:28 amount of uncertainty into the market and the supply chain. Uh and so, listen, he's growing modestly, but Caddyy, you probably saw the poll over the weekend. Would you rather have Joe Biden back as president? 60% of the people said yes. And so, if you look at the numbers, you know, and this happens to presidents, by the way, when when Biden was in office, he had a 40 45% approval rating. We live in an era of low approval ratings for leaders everywhere, not just in America, but in the West as well. >> Exactly. So, I'm not I'm not I'm not really suggesting that, just telling people how unenthusiastic people are about political leadership, particularly here in the country. But remember, you know, Biden pushed the CHIPS Act. He pushed the infrastructure bill. He pushed clean energy incentives. Uh Trump

29:13 is dumping money into people's hands. Yes, the tax refunds will be better, but he hasn't done anything structurally like he can't get to the podium and say, "Okay, listen. I've made a 5-year investment. We've used some of the government's money to rebuild manufacturing centers or we made we invested in jobs training or retooling people that are delivering pizzas or working for Door Dash. We're going to teach them how to use AI and get white collar jobs." He hasn't done any of that. And so the economy is vulnerable and it's going to be offset by rate cuts. I'm not saying that the stock market's going to implode or anything like that, but we're talking about the average person. You know, you've mentioned a K-shap economy where a group

30:00 of people are doing very well, Caddy, and then another group of people are doing poorly. And so the question is, is the group of people that are doing poorly going to turn up at the polls and vote the Republicans out? Because remember, they own they own this. They've got the House, the Senate, and the presidency. And so it'll be interesting to see what happens. Whites who's the Republican uh pollster who you know well Anthony made a really good point um over the weekend which is that when a president's job approval rating is below 50% the average loss of seats in that midterm election uh is 32. So President Trump's job approval rating sits at around 40%. You know, if you take an average of all

30:47 the polls out there, which suggests they're in for a hammering, according to wides in the midterm elections, and the thing they have to do is they have it's exactly what you're talking about is that K-shaped economy because who are the people they're losing vote support amongst young people who are struggling the most economically and Hispanic voters who are not traditionally in the top 1% of American voters. So, also the people that are struggling in the economy. Before we go, one of the things that you thought he might try to do is by getting Kevin Walsh in to cut interest rates. Uh that that would help juice the American economy in the American stock market heading into the midterms. Is that going to happen? And will it have the effect that he wants it to have? >> I think I I I think so. You know, our our our economic team is expecting now four rate cuts by the end of the year.

31:34 Uh, of course we've got to get rid of the criminal investigation against Jerome Pal. I really do believe Tom Tillis that that nomination is not going to go forward in the committee. He's going to vote against it. So remember how this works. It's got to go to the Senate Banking Committee. It's got to be approved by the committee and then put down on the floor for a vote until it says, "Hey, I'm not doing that until you get rid of this criminal investigation." And so, uh, you know, we'll have to see what happens there, but my guess is is that criminal investigation will slink away. Uh, you know, it's preposterous that there's actually a criminal investigation as Jerome Pal. It just speaks to how bad everything is. You know, we we I know we have to go, but the corruption index in the United

32:20 States has gone up. And I want people to think about that. Uh, we're not enforcing the bribery acts. We're not enforcing the imalments clause against the president and you know there's a there's a stink going on in the economy which is also going to affect the economy caddy. So so if you bring ICE agents into blue states you're going to scare people. It's going to slow down economic innovation. If you're going to grift people are not going to trust the system as much as they once did. It's all it's all connected. So, will rates get go lower if wars gets into the job? And I predict he will get into the job. Yes. Will that act as a buffer for the stock market? Yes. But the president and his team is going to have to pull back

33:07 on these tariffs. And and you know this and I know this. The reason why that Supreme Court decision on the tariffs has been delayed is Roberts does not want this to be a 5-4 decision. Okay? He's not going to get it to be 900, uh, but he's looking for 72 and he's lobbying those justices, uh, to make that happen. And so, and so, you know, that that that's coming down the pike. So, so there there's a lot of economic uncertainty. If you're an executive and a capital allocator, you're sitting there saying, "Geez, I don't know if the tariffs are going to stay in place. I don't know what's going on with ICE. I'm worried about the bribery and corruption that's going on in my own industry. Should I also be a briber?" and a corrupt person to make more business for myself. I mean, he set up a true

33:52 disaster for the American economy and it and it's starting to hurt him and you can see it in his approval ratings >> and you can see it in the value of the dollar as well. I mean, it's hard to know exactly which of those plays what role, but it's all certainly playing some sort of role. Um, that is all we have time for today. Clearly another busy week uh shaping up here in in the United States. Uh thanks so much for listening everybody. If you would like to become a founding member, please do so. We'll be taking your questions. We'll be looking at Epstein um this week and uh you can send us your questions and we'll answer them every week as well. And get our special series on Donald J. Trump which is coming up soon. Thanks for listening guys. >> Thanks guys. We'll see you soon.

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