Two Southern Governments Ousted: What Happened?

0:00 to this segment where we're going to be focusing on the southern states and puducheri. I'm very happy to be joined by my colleague Praya in the studio as well as senior journalist Kavita Muri Dharan, editor of the south first Anushia Ravi Sud and senior journalist Shaji and Joseph online. Thank you all so much for joining me. I want to start by talking about what is what are perhaps the most surprising of the results we're seeing today which is what's happening in Tamil Nad. Uh the TVK is currently leading in 105 seats. Uh according to the election commission website the majority mark in the state is 118. So perhaps if it continues in this way it's going to edge very close to that number maybe even on its own. Super is leading in both of the constituencies that he is contesting

0:46 that's paramur and east. Uh Savita I want to come to you first on this. You know currently the chief minister MK Stalin is trailing in his own constituency. Uh how surprising is this? Was this a wave that was visible? >> Uh no this was not a visible wave at all. Jani all I think all the journalists all the analysts in Tamil Nadu who who had their ear to the ground. They missed a huge point. they miss that there has been an anti-in either it's a huge anti-incmpy or the fact that we failed to correctly judge uh how the genie generation has voted. I mean we we I mean we did hear tales about how uh children were getting prom making their parents promise that they'll vote for the TVK this time even though they can't vote you know they're

1:32 making their parents they were making their grandparents promise that they'll load for TVK this time but we all thought this was some social media uh thing and it won't have a great impact on the ground. I mean we were sure that TVK will have some kind of impact. I thought you know after MGR there is no on-screen personality from Tamil cinema who's made this kind of uh wave. So basically I thought even if Vijay manages to get 15 20% I thought it was a huge number but this is something completely unexpected. We didn't we didn't expect this kind of results and I don't know uh we thought DMK's first place was like solid. The competition is for the second place between the TVK and the ADMK. Now everything is kind of topsy turby. We don't know what's going

2:18 to happen as if the trends continue we'll have Vijay as chief minister and that's a you know I I don't know Vijay doesn't have experience. I still friends called me and said you know like you've been speaking against Vijay I said I have nothing against Vijay personally it's just that we've not seen him do the right kind of things in kar even when he was in cinema I have not seen him do the right kind of things his films were like largely anti-women and uh you know and after he became a politician he was a weekend politician he was a part-time politician he never even this election he didn't campaign properly like the other leaders did like Stalin or Eda party did he for every one day he campaigned he took two or three days off but this is a wave even despite all this if Vijay is managing to win this is a

3:04 wave and I think we've uh we've failed in our judgment and two but the real challenge for Vijay aides only now he'll have to pick his ministers you know running a government running an administration is not an easy thing so he'll have to pick his ministers he'll have to decide about the bureaucratic setup there's a lot of challenges that is waiting for him we need to see how he's going Yeah, Anusha, I want to ask you also, you know, we're seeing the DMK currently leading only in 40 seats. This is obviously a very big fall from where it was, not only holding government, but even in terms of vote share. It's gone from about 38% last time. Currently, it's showing around 23% uh though these are of course still early trends in terms of vote share and we will see how this goes. Uh but the AIDMK is at 66

3:50 seats and the TVK now at 105. Was this kind of anger against the sitting government visible? Was the fact that so much of their campaign was focused on the union and you know the issues of federalism, the delimitation matter. Is that something that perhaps didn't resonate? >> There is no denying that the DMK has been a government that has invested in populist measures, welfare measures aimed especially at women and uh girls. However, there is also no denying the fact that the DMK government has more often than not found itself on the wrong side when it comes to cast crimes, when it has come to corruption, when it has come to nepotism, of course, which is raging issue across cutting across party lines. But in Tamil Nadu particularly,

4:35 the DMK is primarily seen as a party that promotes nepotism, that promotes people with a family name more than merit itself. While all of this is true, there is also no denying the fact that Tamil Nadu has a pension for voting out the incumbent. There have been exceptions, no doubt. But uh overall it is a state that wants to give opportunities to different political parties and I do believe that Vijay has been a beneficiary this election of that sentiment of giving of either voting out the incumbent or giving opportunity to fresher parties to fresher faces. Uh like I said there have been exceptions of course uh it's almost as if um

5:20 history repeats. I agree with Janvi when you say the it is still the counting is still underway. If you actually look at the margins in a lot in more seats than not the margins are really thin. In some seats the margin is just about 50 votes and we are still uh we perhaps another hour hour and a half you'll have a better picture. But something that you really cannot take take away from the TVK is the fact that it has retained the highest number of vote shared in all the votes counted so far. And there are very few political parties across the country not just in Tamil Nadu who can claim to have made such a huge impact to have actually moved the ground in the way that TVK has. If the trends hold

6:06 naturally uh you perhaps will look at a broken mandate in Tamil Nadu if the scales don't tilt and if this is the trend that is set and if this is how things are going to move forward but I do believe there will be some changes to the trends as we see now as counting moves to more uh dynamic constituencies that are in favor of conventional political parties. uh what you see right now as I believe is definitely a reflection of Tamil Nadu's mood or overall um pension for voting out the incumbent conventionally voting out the incumbent. Um as you as you would also see a lot of of course a lot of exit polls did tell you that DMK might end up being the largest the party with the

6:51 largest votes except one which was access my India. However, not even Active My India anticipated that DMK will slip to the third position. Everybody anticipated that you know uh the ABMK perhaps will be the party. Every cutting across all except I suppose one split splits media uh has had predicted that um DNK will come on top perhaps mostly and ADMK will be the party that will be at the third position. But the trends right now show you that the DMK has absolutely is probably got snacked and the supporters of the DMK as well. >> Yeah. No, definitely. And Pragya perhaps you would like to comment on this. You know Tamil Nadu is a state that we all

7:37 watch for having this history of Dravidian politics. these two strong parties who of course power has shifted between the two but they they come from with this base this history and now Vijay has entered the frey everyone knew that he has this mass popularity of course because of his films but he has not really espoused an ideology very strongly he has talked about little bits and pieces there but I don't think anyone could very clearly say what he stands for or what his government might look like is it surprising that a state which is known for a history like that is now going this way it's surprising to me and I'm sure to a lot of uh other people who are in the state and and beyond. Um perhaps what we'll find later on once the election results are fully out is that this was a micro election where uh absolutely local level issues

8:22 uh you know came to the prominence. Um but uh you know as far as the Dvidian angle is concerned he uh Vijay was very careful he was very careful not to take a stand on many issues which were seemed to be going against the DNK which is surprising. So castass violence he doesn't speak up on on women's issues he doesn't speak up and uh you know uh our colleague just said that like well you know he didn't speak up much he would go silent for two days in fact the allegation against him was that he went silent once for 72 days after the stampede in which so many people died. Um so uh it is a surprise in that sense that why does a silent person uh on issues that are said to move the election has done so well and perhaps that is why uh maybe there was a sense

9:08 of um you know too much of gloom and doom. Um I also want to add that uh some of the national level issues that the DMK uh like many other state governments has had to contend with you know their center state uh the center state uh sort of tug of war on uh very meaningful issues including welfare including how to spend the state resources including how devolution would occur delimitation would happen and the sir so when a state government is caught up in these issues it naturally has to respond to them and so maybe that's where the ball uh slipped from their hands. >> Yeah, Shaji M Joseph thank you. I know you have joined us as well and I mean several experts before these elections

9:53 were seeing this perhaps going the UDF way. Uh was this the scale of victory that you had also imagined? In fact, u look the victory to which the UDF is now moving to looks to be something that that that could you know even reach 100 seats out of the 140 seats of the you know the legislative assembly. You see the the victory of the UDF was almost predicted in Canada after 10 years of uh you know the LDF government. But what is now being revealed to us in terms of the results that is pouring in is that the LDF has not been even able

10:38 to hold on to his traditional fortresses. For example, in in the northern part of Kerala where the LDF particularly CPM has got a very good you know hold in terms of you know votes and seats even in those traditional seats they are losing uh for instance as you rightly said the the chief minister himself for the first time in that constituency where he had won by a margin of 50,000 votes in 2021 election The chief minister is trading by around thousand old votes. When it comes to the central Canada, the UDF has made a complete sweep of most of

11:24 the districts. Districts like out of the 14 seats sometime back when I was looking at it all the 14 seats the UDF was leading. Now a few changes have come up. So >> right >> here is a state where after 10 years of the LDF rule the public reaction has been completely negative to the government and to the chief minister himself. It was all projected that the LDF will have a face saving victory in Kerala this time but things do not look to be that. That means the government this the the CPIM and its allies are losing very badly. The public anger now

12:11 seems to be completely uh you know symbolizing the the the loss of faith in the government and its performance. Now the problem with the UDF coming up it has already started that I'm told I am sitting in Tandon right now the UDF is not a cohesive unique this is a very loosen alliance as always the the the kind of you know the lapses that we see in the alliance led by the Congress is very visible now already in Kerala the formation of the government for the Congress led UDF is not going to be easy. Even before the election had taken

12:57 place, the skirmishes had you know personal skirmishes, personal ambition had already begun in the Congress left UDF because the Congress has got three senior leaders wanting to be the to emerge the chief minister candidate. But all said and done the leader of the opposition, Mr. Wii Sadishan seems to be the the the darling of the public especially the Congress workers to emerge as the chief minister candidate. Of course you know Casey Wenopal who has his hold at the center at the high command. He is also a front flyer. He is also a favorite for this.

13:43 All said and done in this election as a result for it be very sure that the LDF government has been completely negated by public opinion. The public has rejected the leadership of the government led by CPIM. Therefore, >> yeah, >> you can I I'm sure the number will nearly touch 100 >> in an hour's time because already what I'm learning is the UDF has is leading hugely in 97 seats and the LDF is getting reduced to 39 which is a loss of face for the government >> right but perhaps in some ways 2021 was

14:30 a different election in Kerala in that otherwise is you know every 5 years we were seeing the state change party. So the fact that one chief minister one party was in power for 10 years perhaps did lead to more anti-incumbency than the state is used to and it is not used to seeing the same uh government in power for that amount of time. I I wanted to come to Anusha Ravi Sud also on this Anusha you know Shaji Joseph was talking about the three senior leaders of the congresspal there's Romesh Chanitala and there's of course VD Satishan we have been seeing what some have been reading as you know them already sort of making their bid to become chief minister there's an auto biography of quesy Gopal that was released there's a film a documentary on him that actually was finally stalled it

15:16 was not released before the elections has his political podcast. Vid Satishan has these long Facebook posts where he's you know talking about his thoughts and his ideology. Do you think this may lead to some sort of tussle in government formation or now that they have this rather resounding victory that's quite seeming quite likely things will settle down? As you would ask, convention would tell you that the Congress uh is a party that has more often than not seen a lot of dissident after it has uh won a particular election. But this time, this time around, it seems the party at least uh with Kerala in mind took a set of decisions to avoid such a confrontation. The first things the first thing that the party did was to decide that it is

16:02 not going to give assembly seat tickets to MPs whether you're KC Venu Gopal whether it is Shashi Tarud because let's remember his name was also doing the rounds for the top post in Kerala and he was very open about his ambition uh of leading the state of Kerala as chief minister for a very long time but the Congress has chosen not to feel any of its MPs to kind of keep that competition healthy if you want to call also the The Congress in Kerala does not have anymore a leader like Oman Chandi. That means the party has to now not just make a call by itself but it also has to take into confidence its allies. An ally like the IUML which is a huge strength uh to the Congress in Kerala must have a say in who should be heading uh say a UDF

16:48 government in Kerala if the numbers uh if voters have chosen ultimately uh the party. As my my understanding goes and my conversations with a lot of leaders in uh in Kerala in Congress goes the idea that the party had was all based on numbers. Say if the the seats that the Congress is going to win or the UDF is going to win is closer to the halfway mark which makes it slightly more difficult to keep a house united which opens up the party. As we know u most often than not other than the BJP all other parties have been victims of horse trading victims of um um instability post election. The Congress in its mind as I understand had this equation that if the number of seats that it wins is closer to the halfway mark then its choice of

17:34 candidate will be different will be somebody who has a larger starcher who has more command who somebody who's able to work with all the allies and also quell dissident and rebellion within the party and that is where you see perhaps leaders who are closer to the central leadership of the congress come into play but if the numbers are huge like what Mr. Char you were saying if the numbers are landslide then it is absolutely perhaps going to stay with somebody who is popular in the state and why somebody like uh the leader of the opposition now Mr. Satishan comes right on top because he has a great working relationship even with allies and in the bi-elections that Kerala saw um earlier last year his choice of candidates have proven him to be a leader who capable of picking and choosing leaders for the

18:19 party who can win them elections and perhaps that is what is ultimately going to uh give Kerala its new chief minister if these numbers hold of course. >> Yeah. Now before we move back to talking about Tamil Nadu because I think there's a lot to discuss there I do want to ask uh Shaji M Jose a little bit about the BJP campaign in Kerala the BJP is currently leading in three seats in Kasagur, Paradak and Nem and we saw them this time you know specifically campaigning in some seats they were the campaign was not very broad it was quite focused. Uh if it does go on to win these seats the currently the margins are not very big. So we'll have to see how this goes. How much of a victory is that for a party that hasn't really had a foothold in the assembly elections in

19:05 Kerala? >> Look, the BJP more than you know trying to mobilize its force in the state, the BJP is facing a war within itself. The state leaders of the BJP do not like to see eye to eye. So what their strength is equivalent to the you know strength they are spending in their respective seats where they are contesting. They would also be spending their time, energy and money to ensure that the rival leader in the party is defeated in the seat where he is contesting. Now look at look at the situation in Palad. Sha suran is the source of you

19:52 know he's an eyesore for other party delays in the in the state. Look at Kuredan fighting in Meshur. He the former state leader he does not have a support from a from the current or the present leadership of the party in the state. Nam is a seat where the BJP can still hope to win this win this time. But I don't think neither Palagat nor MJ or Kakuram where the former president Vulan is fighting they the BJP is going to make it to the final point. Nam of course where Chandra is fighting he could win that seat because he has a

20:40 very big BJP support in that area. The problem with the leaders who are fighting in the BJP in different seats in Kerala in the seats where they are fighting the party apparent does not seem to be having or you know favoring them. This is where the BJP in Kerala is not able to make a big mark in the elections. The BDP has got a big problem in Kerala because of parties inability to cut a space for the party in the respective areas of their strength. You go to northern Kerala the BJP or the rather the RSS

21:28 is up against the CPIM candidates in that area. That is why the RSS or the BJP comes to public discourse because of the conflict with the CPIM rather the DFI. When it comes to central Kerala, the DY the the BDP is banking on its allies like the BDBs or the 2020 in central Canada. The BDP does not have much state. You come down South Kerala, the BJP has a got a very good positioning in districts like Trevandum. In Trevandum, the BJP has will be

22:14 putting up a very good show. I'm sure the BJP stands to lose some of its vote share compared to 2021 assembly election when the last vote is counted in Kerala this day. I want to go back to Kavita to talk about Tamil Nadu but Kavita I know you also need to leave soon. Uh you know I was watching an earlier program you've done before the results and you were talking about how you think one of the reasons for Vijay's popularity as a political leader and not as a movie star is the depoliticization of the state. The fact that for instance student union politics now have taken such a backseat don't exist in most universities. Yeah. Would you stand by that? And do you think that is what we're seeing the result of today? Because now it does

23:00 seem like it couldn't only be young voters who have been pushed towards the TV. >> See young voters have young voters have significantly influenced their families also. That is a very important thing. Women uh women have voted for Vijay. I mean it's very apparent. So uh see what I see is MGR had a solid women vote bank. Women were voting for MGR till he was elected and Jay Lea had a rapper with the women in Tamil Nadu. So one of the reporters who was on ground also told me that you know the connect that u you know Vijay had with women or the women had with Vijay rather especially was something similar to Jay Lalitha they they saw him as a uh you know they saw him as a brother or that kind of person it was it was personal that I didn't even want to believe but I still I would still say the depoliticization

23:46 of students in Tamil Nadu which is known for its very vibrant student politics you know we we had our antiant educations led by the students in Tamil Nadu And we've had very solid women leaders in Tamil Nadu in the Dravidian movement like they were like really fury leaders in Tamil Nadu. And this is a huge huge setback. It's a huge fall that the students are depoliticized. The youth are repoliticized. There's nobody to kind of there's student politics is absolutely absent today. The campus politics is absolutely absent today. There's no election happening in the campus. So that is what led to so the vacum created is filled by film personalities you know and you know people don't realize what they are losing out see once vijay maybe if he forms a government once he is in power for five years only then we'll they'll understand what we are missing as this

24:32 as a state you know kind of uh progress that Tamil Nadu has made today doesn't it didn't come overnight it didn't happen overnight it took some 50 60 years and about your earlier question to Anusha on delimitation I don't think those had an impact in Tamil Nadu. Opposition to the BJP. The BJP is like last time they won four seats. Now today they are leading in three seats only. I think El Morgan is trailing as of now El Morgan is trailing. I can uh the union minister is trailing. So BJP doesn't have an impact in Tamil Nadu. Opposing center uh or the BJP at national level will not have an impact in Tamil Nadu. I mean it it will have an impact in favor of the state in favor of the Rebian party. So that is not the factor here you know and I still think even if Vijay comes to power depending on uh on his

25:19 advices he would still choose to oppose the BJP. Uh that's what I'm hearing. He would still choose to be stand against the DMK and the BJP. That is he made it very clear from the beginning. Uh if I mean if he I think he's leading now in 117 seat. So if he manages to kind of get a you know u majority on his own 118 >> then I think he can still kind of u oppose the though I don't though I still don't find him ideologically solid he's still not very clear about his ideology and it will take a long time maybe vijay is also a one election mand you never know like people will realize it's better to be go back to the bipolar thing that Tamil Nadu is so used to also uh you know voting uh voting the

26:05 incumbent back to power has never happened in Tamil Nadu except in 2016 where we had another external factor you know we had this Makal Nalakutani people's welfare alliance a broad-based third friend by the left Vijay Gant uh and other parties which played spoiled sport then and you know Mjaya came back to power so all of us thought that Vijay is going to play the similar role and he will help DMK come back to power apart from the fact that DMK DMK's welfare schemes were kind of popular on the ground and this is really surprising Jani because I I really can't understand what's happening but I still believe repoliticizing repoliticization of campus led to this. It's one of the factors that led to this definitely. >> Thank you so much Kavatamiharan Anusha

26:52 Ravis and Shaji M. Joseph for joining us. Now I've been told we also have professor Jir Vern who's a political scientist and researcher at Siri in at Sepo in Paris joining us. Uh thank you so much professor Via if we can thank you for joining us. I know it's late for you where you are so we're really grateful that you could make the time for this. Uh I'm wondering >> both if you know we just had a look at where the numbers stand and uh I'm wondering if you want to comment a little bit on that and also you know you have been writing about the extraordinary nature of these specific elections that we're seeing in India right now. Is that do you think manifesting in the results or would would that leap not be one that we should be making at the moment?

27:37 See um to be very honest I was a bit reluctant to you know come out and you know speak in a bit of in the heat of the moment because for the first time since I've started commenting and analyzing election results which was you know 12 years ago when I've started working on Indian politics for quite a few years you know uh longer this is the first time where in good conscience I cannot actually offer an analysis of the results because in some states and West Bengal in particularly the changes that have been made at the last moment on the composition of the electorate as such that we actually cannot tell what you know the effect would have been you know on on the results. We cannot tell what

28:22 would have been the result if everyone who ought to have been allowed to vote in Bengal for instance uh had actually a chance uh to do so. There have been so many deletions, so many undue deletions. The process has been so aars. The election commission, the court system have failed to put an effective adjudication system in place in uh West Bengal with a result that hundreds of thousand if not more uh voters were deprived of their right to vote. So in those conditions I really don't know how I can offer a sound objective analysis of the result and if you look at other states in Kerala where actually an

29:08 adjudication result system has been put in place where the result of the sir are actually more robust. Um the this has led to a considerable uh number of re-entry of voters. So at the end of the day, few voters have been in comparison unduly deleted in in in in Kerala compared to um West Bengal. But uh and because we know and notably through the reporting that was done by by the wire uh and and other journalists that uh the whole process was skewed uh against areas and segments of the electorate that were favorable to uh the triname. We know that this apazot

29:55 exercise has created an electoral advantage. Now is this what has generated on its own you know the result that we seem to have in West Bengal to be very honest I'm not in a position of uh saying so and the very and this is the heart of the problem is that we cannot tell uh to what extent all those changes made to the composition of the electorate have actually affected the result and that cast a great shadow of doubt over the legitimacy of those results and and and it caused me to say that because this is the very first time that I have to admit that um you know in in an Indian election for you know for a long

30:42 time.