Why The New US-Iran War Is a WARNING About Our Future

0:01 Hello and welcome everyone to this very important update and video. As you remember last Friday, so 48 hours ago, I made a video on Iran and the potential involvement of the United States and I stated that I don't think Trump can afford to attack Iran for very good reasons. Now, he did it and I will comment on what that means for us in Pioneer Lands, what that means potentially for us as Tesla investors and for anyone who is interested in the future of America and the Western world. So, let's first take a look at the statement Trump just made because that statement tells us a lot. A short time ago, the US military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the

0:49 Iranian regime. Foraux, Natans, and Esfahan. I want to interrupt here quickly. First of all, notice that he doesn't do it alone, which is very interesting. That's the first time he does that after a strike. If you remember in his first presidency, you have JD Vance, you have Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, and you have Pete Hexath, the Secretary of Defense. None of them looks like a happy camper, by the way. They look very concerned and unhappy. I will get into that during the video. It's very short. Bear with me. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise. Our objective was the

1:35 destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier. For 40 years, Iran has been saying, "Death to America, death to Israel." They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs.

2:21 Look at the faces. Don't just look at Trump. In the end, I will point out something Trump did that's very interesting. But look at the faces of these three behind him. They're not happy campers. And especially look at JD Vance. That was their specialty. We lost over a thousand people. And hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate. In particular, so many were killed by their general, Casm Solommani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue. I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister BB Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've gone a

3:07 long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they've done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight and all of the United like look at this. Even when he says the American pilots flew these magnificent magnificent machines, Rubio and Hexith are nodding a little bit. Not happy, but they're nodding a little bit. JD Vance is just not doing anything. United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades. Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that's so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan

3:54 Raisen Kaine, spectacular general, and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack. With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last 8 days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all by far and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed, and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight. Not even close. There

4:40 has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago. Tomorrow, General Kaine, Secretary of Defense Pete Hgsth will have a press conference at 8 a.m. at the Pentagon. And I want to just thank everybody. And in particular, God, I want to just say we love you, God. And we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel. and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you. Okay, that's it. Hey, creating these videos is a lot of work. Please like and subscribe. It really helps out the channel. Now, let's get back to the video. So, I think this is uh was very

5:26 interesting, was very short. If you listen closely, you can go back and listen yourself to that video. Trump's voice was actually breaking when he said, "I want to thank God." So clearly these guys are not happy. Clearly you see the weight of this decision and clearly you see that all of them especially JD Vance but also Trump they know what I explained sorry what I explained on Friday that this puts the entire mega coalition at risk. They know that this is potentially a devastating thing for the Trump administration. So, not happy. Of course, they're happy that the mission didn't fail militarily, but why would it fail? Uh, I mean, that that's like if you have that level of

6:12 weaponry and technology and satellite and so on, information superiority, it's not that hard to pull it off. So, that's great, but they know that this is a huge problem. So, here we have the scenarios that are now unfolding. I want to go very quickly in the scenarios. Just quick commentary because I made this video where I told you I don't think they're going to attack. Now, they did attack and as I laid out on Friday, obviously there were some reasons where I said, "Of course, if they do that, it's all fine, right? You can attack Iran if they present nuke evidence, right? If they not just talk about they don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, of course, no one wants to have anyone to have a nuclear weapon. But is there any evidence? Did anything change or is this a war of choice? Now if over

6:58 the next days or next months or at some point in the close future it is revealed that Iran was actually close to a nuclear weapon closer than they have been over the last 10 years that would be an interesting gamecher then people would change their minds. Mega would change their mind or if they can pull off a quick end of the conflict. If of course I ran bales and I ran caves, then this whole operation will look actually very good, right? The problem is the nuke evidence, you know, you can just tell if you know anything about this whole situation, if there would be evidence, why not present it right now? If you hear the rhetoric, the nukes are always a small part. You know, Trump talks about all these uh soldiers the US lost and the evil regime and all these

7:44 kinds of things. If this would be about a nuke and there's evidence, he would hammer the nuke thing. Was like, well, they had time. They didn't dismantle it. We found the evidence. Now we have to hammer them. Boom. It's not hard to say that. It's very easy. It's the most effective thing you could do to build a coalition and to convince people the strike was necessary. If there would be nuke evidence, I have no doubt that this would have been the best route to pull this off and justify it. And the fact that we didn't hear any of that for me means the probability that there is any nuclear weapon danger that is higher than before is extremely low and that's bad news. So the second option here is maybe they end the conflict quickly, right? But if you demonstrate that level of risk and go into that risk and

8:31 destroy other people's stuff in Iran and then they cave and you just win very quickly without any US casualties, without tremendous expense, that is a win for Trump and that will make him look very strong. The probability of that unfortunately is also low if not very low. You have to ask yourself, what is the probability that Iran is just giving in and says, "Okay, fine. Israel and US, you're very strong. You destroyed a bunch of our stuff. We understand that we lost before we even started. So, we give up. You tell us what you want. If that happens, this is also a win." And that's one scenario I didn't include into my possible exits here for Trump if he does that. So, that's the one thing that could happen. If you ask me, I don't see any way how

9:18 this happens. And the reason for that is Israel is continuing the attacks. The reason of that is Iran cannot trust Trump who also said or his people said I think a few hours ago to Iran that they don't want a regime change. They just want the nukes and they want them to dismantle the nuclear program. The problem is if you're Iran, do you believe that after what Netanyahu said, what Trump said before? Of course, the Iranian regime cannot trust Israel or the United States to just be after the nukes. Instead, they should be convinced just based on the facts that they want regime change, that Israel and the US want regime change. The problem with a regime change is if you tell a regime you want to change it, including killing most of them or many of them or the

10:04 leader, that regime has nothing to lose. And if you have nothing to lose, of course you're going to strike back. Now, if Iran decides to strike back, that's called an escalation. That is what could happen. And here, I'm very, very decisive. I'm saying if these two things happen, if there's a new evidence shown or the conflict is somehow ended very quickly, it will be a win for Trump. He will look strong and critics will look dumb because he can say, "Look, I told you I have it under control." But if this escalates, what surprises me is there are still people, a lot of people, the so-called hawks, many, you know, pro-Israel defenders. And I'm all for defending Israel, but I'm not for attacking people like that, but it doesn't matter what I'm for. I'm just

10:50 describing the situation. A lot of people seem to believe regime change isn't that bad of an idea. Iran is weak. The US can attack them and the US is just going to win. That idea is completely ridiculous. Iran is so much stronger than Afghanistan. Iran is so much stronger than Iraq was when we attacked it. This is going to be a complete disaster and it's guaranteed to be a complete disaster. If we escalate this, you look at the history of escalation. When was the last escalation? Where after you escalate the other side gives up? Never. It always escalates into a full-blown war, especially if it becomes clear you want to change the regime and the regime has nothing to lose. In that case, we have to look at it from a military perspective. There are lots of US bases

11:36 in the region. Iran can strike them. Iran can kill Americans. In that moment, America has to escalate. How are they going to defeat Iran? It's going to be a complete mess. Okay, what does it all mean? We will get to the point quickly today. It means that Trump is completely exposed right now. Trump is completely at the mercy of Iran. If you ask me, that Iran caves and doesn't escalate. If Iran escalates this conflict and goes allin, which would mean, by the way, the end of the Iranian regime, it would mean total war. And Iran would lose that war, but at a tremendous cost to the United States. In my opinion, Iran now it's all in Iran's hand to end Trump's legacy and presidency. Now, if Iran does that, it

12:22 comes also at the end of their regime. So, there's still reason not to do it. But if Iran decides to go allin, Trump is finished. That is my prediction. He's finished in the sense that he will lose his coalition. He will look dumber than George Bush. He will look like someone who did an extreme gamble, an irresponsible gamble, technically an illegal gamble under international law and without even trying to justify it. So, as I said, if if Trump finds nuke evidence and presents it and it's not a lie or if he can end this conflict, he will look strong. But the probability for both is very low. If this escalates and gets out of control, Trump is finished and MAGA will break apart and be very unhappy and everyone at MAGA

13:08 will say, "I will never trust anyone again." So, you can tell, by the way, that JD Vance knows all of that. Look at his face. Go back to the video and look at JD Vance's face. He knows the probability that this is the end for Trump is higher than not. I'm very serious about this. He knows it's higher than not and he already in his mind is going through, okay, how do I win if this goes down? And he will be very cautious and he will create plausible deniability and he will say, "Look, I was against it. I was always against it. I couldn't speak up because I was the vice president, but whatever. I never endorsed it." He's already preparing for that. You can tell in his face that's what's going through his mind these days. And he's completely right about that. By the way, he's also ideologically completely not behind

13:54 this. It's against everything he said in the past. It's against the people, you know, who backing him are not for this. So, you can already see the this is very very dangerous for the Trump administration right now. If you ask me, it looks like a giant blunder. It looks like a risk I would never have taken if I would if I was Trump. If there's any evidence, I would never have done that. I can promise you that if I would have been president, I would never have done that without making a much stronger case to the public before that there is evidence for nuclear escalation on the Iran side because I would know everything else I'm not getting away with. It's also very different from 2003 in Iraq where Bush got away with it for

14:42 some time for five years or something because we have X we have social media we have an extremely aware set of influencers who are already pointing that out forever that we are going to dra get dragged into another war that Israel is you know trying to defend itself but it's going overboard by being too aggressive and dragging America into that that's the whole narrative whatever you think about it that is the narrative that is out there that is very strong and that you're not getting around. And now they just confirmed it. So this is not good. It's also not good for Israel by the way because the opposition to Israel will go through the roof if this escalates and America looks like the sucker. Now let's wrap it up here. The geostrategic commentary. What's important for us now is to watch out

15:28 what's happening next. The central question is do we have escalation or do we not have escalation? And just to go into some details what escalation looks like, the escalation is basically would mean that did I write this down? No, I just tell you escalation would mean Iran strikes back, kills Americans in US bases or does some kind of terror attack in the United States, which is now totally possible if the regime thinks it's going to get dismantled because now they have nothing to lose. Uh, of course there will be attacks on Israel too, but I think that's a sideshow. Now more the question is, will there be attacks on US bases? Will there be attacks in the US homeland? The most important question is, will there be

16:14 casualties? And if there are casualties, then the US has to respond or the US has to always respond, but if there are casualties, how do they respond? And how severe is the response? And that will inform the Iranian response. Will there be another attack with more US casualties? And if you see that spiral happening, the big question is, is it going up or down? So if there's an Iranian attack, let's say there are five US casualties, US bombs a bunch of stuff, then the next Iran attack is 10 casualties, then you know you're in an escalation letter. If instead you see Iran retaliating, but there are no casualties and then the US bombs a bunch of stuff with not too many casualties, then we have a deescalation letter. So that is the important thing. Unfortunately, you also have Israel in the middle and if Israel can always dial

17:01 up the casualties on the Iranian side if they want to. So, it's going to be very tricky. That's why we shouldn't be in this situation in the first place. Let's see what happens. But that's what we have to watch out for. Escalation means complete disaster and we will see what happens. Now, what does it all mean for us here in Pioneer Lands? Why are we even commenting on that? Well, it's very important obviously for stock markets for the oil price for macro effects on the markets and I don't want to go into that too deep that's very easy to understand oil price up very bad recession risks go up all kinds of things escalation costs another you know trillion two trillion 10 trillion if this really escalates which puts the US into a debt spiral that it cannot escape from big problem but besides that there is a much bigger question actually that

17:48 goes beyond economics And I want to ask everyone, I know most of us here are Elon supporters or believe Elon is a very smart person, listen to what Elon said and how he got out of it. He clearly saw things in DC that he didn't like. He clearly realized that even someone like Trump, you know, in the end cannot really be trusted. And he clearly thinks we have bigger fish to fry than going into politics. Uh because AGI is coming. The entire world is going to change in the next 24 months, 24 to 36 months in ways most people are completely blind to. But it's not the distant future. It's going to happen now. Millions or tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions of people will lose their jobs in the next four years in the

18:34 Western world. In Europe, in Asia, and of course in America, we will lose it to AGI. White collar jobs are basically already gone in the next 36 months. I know many people disagree with me, but I'm right on that. Listen to what everyone who knows something says. Listen to the Microsoft CEO. Listen to the OpenAI CEO and so on and so forth. Elon sees all of these things because in the middle of it, he's not the only one who sees it, but he also sees it. He also sees the AGI, you know, singularity coming, ASI coming, all of that is going to happen now. So all the political stuff we see, right? Elon describes as noise. I disagree with that. I will explain to you in a second why we watch Iran and Trump and MAGA and mega in Europe. Why

19:20 we watch the AFD in Germany, why we watch reform in UK, why am I even focusing on these political things when we talk about capital markets and the future and AGI. It's all connected. So bear with me. Elon is saying this is all noise. It's like I'm on this beach. Elon had this beautiful image here. Elon said at Y Combinator at his interview, "Look, I got out of politics, not commenting on Iran and everything because I feel like we at the beach trying to put pick up some litter, pick up some, you know, syringes and empty bottles to make the beach clean." That's this metaphor for going to DC and trying to fix politics and all that mess that we are seeing right now. and we had this

20:06 beach and trying to clean it up while in the background there's a 1,00 ft tsunami called AGI coming. So he said, "Is it really smart to clean up the beach when this tsunami is coming?" No. We have to watch the tsunami and do something with that. That's what he realized about politics. That's why he got out. Now, here is where I totally disagree with Elon and I disagree with all of Silicon Valley and I disagree with Microsoft and everyone who has the same mindset as Elon. Okay? And that is a very widespread mindset behind the scenes. Of course Mark Andre, of course Sam Alman, of course Satya Nadella, they watch all the political mess now potentially the end of Trump with his Iran disaster potentially happening with high

20:52 likelihood. Let's see. Maybe he has an ace up his sleeve and it's not happening but with high likelihood this is the end. And all these guys, the tech guys are sitting there and saying like who cares? Who cares? We will be the masters of this new universe. There will be no DC. There will be no Moscow. There will be no little Tan people or Israel. This all doesn't matter because within 36 months we are going to seize complete control over the world. Okay. Now, of course, they're right about the tech trajectory. Of course, Elon and Satya and Sam and all these guys are right that all of these things right now are asideeshow and it's all about AGI because the power of the entire world will shift into the hands of the AGI people very very soon and very dramatically. But here is where they are

21:38 not right and here's where they all have a giant blind spot that Pioneer Lands is here to fix. Not that we know the fix, but we understand the problem and the fix and the problem. The problem and the fix is that we are humans and as long as we are pro-human and don't want to go away like the trans the insane you know not genocidal but specidal transhumanists think that humans need to be replaced now or will be replaced by machines and by the AI. If you don't know about that, go out and research what the transhumanists, including some Google founders thinking, very widespread Silicon Valley. They think there's a superior new species coming, which is digital intelligence, and it

22:24 will replace the humans, and then we are gone. And that's a good thing. That's what they're thinking. So, if you're not on that page, and I'm militantly, and I mean militantly, opposed to these insane people, I think they want to wipe out humanity, and they have a good shot in getting there, and we have to fight it with everything we have. So let's put that aside and say we are not transhumanists. We are humanists. We want to have humans around. I'm a huge fan of humans. Humans are you know an end. They are not a means to create super intelligence. They are not a biological bootloader for ASI. They are the means of they are not the means but they are the end of what we are doing. We want to have happy humans around us. Now why? Because I believe in it. And you have to make up your mind if you believe in it. But if you believe in it then we have to build pioneer lands.

23:09 Because as long as humans are around here I go full circle to Iran and Trump and mega maga and all these things as long as humans are around we will have politics because politics means that humans have to figure out how to live together and create prosperity and happiness. And what we are seeing right now is basically that we only have two options that are both very bad for us as humans. We have the transhumanists who embrace this new ASI and AGI wave that is coming in a way that they believe the humans have no chance of survival to some extent. That even includes Elon by the way. They all have given in. They all think this is inevitable. It's happening now and we will be replaced by machines. That's one faction. I'm very

23:55 against that philosophy. I think it's insane. It's not good. And on the other side you have the existing political power structures in DC, in Israel, in Europe, in Berlin, in London, in Paris, in Beijing, in Moscow. And these people, these current power brokers, power regimes and infrastructures of political power suck. They are a complete joke. They are not prepared for this world and they are not taking care of humans. And you see this with what's now happening in Israel and Iran and Gaza. You see what's happening in Ukraine and Russia. You see what's happening with the borders and migration in Europe and in the United States. And you know if bad things happen with Iran and we see that

24:42 you know Trump also cannot be trusted and he does stupid things and that hope is gone. I never had that hope too much by the way. I always thought it's just a better option but I did never expect Trump to fix politics. So we have to understand these are our two choices. Insane people insane in the sense that their moral campus is so off that it's shocking the transhumanists the ASI and AGI crowd and on the other side these dinosaurs who just think they can take our taxpayer money and create all these wars and murder people all over the place in the most irresponsible and dumb way. Right? And that is a big big problem. And what we need to do if you are a humanist, if you are a pioneer, you believe the age of AGI could be amazing that we can create some form of

25:28 utopia for humans. But we have to work very hard on it and we have to embrace politics as a central means to that end then we have to be aware that whatever politics is out there, whatever infrastructure is out there sucks. It's a disaster. And if you think Iran, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Russia is bad, wait until these kinds of people and decision-m structures play around with ASI. Then you will realize Gaza isn't bad and what we see in East Ukraine isn't bad and Putin isn't bad and all these things, not compared to what awaits us when this kind of stupid and incompetent decision-m gets a force multiplier with ASI that is like a million nuclear weapons. So what we need to do is we have to understand don't

26:15 believe that these people any of these political structures are going to save us that they are going to fix anything. We have to understand it is our job now to see the future to predict it to embrace it to do smart capital investments to maximize our own capital by for example being in AI stocks like Tesla and others maximize our wealth but then not stop there but understand that we have a job to do and that job is to form new political consensus structures that allow us to make better decisions more wise decisions than all of these people to figure out how we can live together, get corruption out of it, create trust, create wise decision-making infrastructure. I have some ideas on that, but I don't have all

27:00 these solutions. We can only do that together, but we have to do it together because no one else is going to do it. We need to figure out how to live together and create smart decisionmaking infrastructure and create wise selfgovernance. Now, maybe some of you ask, Joe, what's the point of this? We have no power. You're just a bunch of dudes and dudetss hanging out having some nice, you know, Tesla trades, maybe Nvidia trades, some crypto. You know, we in pioneer lands. We're trying to do our best, but we cannot compete with the United States or with Russia or China. Wrong. That is absolutely wrong. First of all, we are in these countries, at least in Europe and the United States. So, we have a say in it. But there's also a new paradigm that comes with the age of AGI. And that paradigm is I have it right here. in the age of AGI. This

27:47 is my paradigm and I believe I'm absolutely correct with that. The force multiplication that we will experience over the next 36 months thanks to AGI systems. They're not just bad. There's not just a runaway doom scenario, but they also will multiply our force so much you can't even imagine. But more importantly because of that if we come together and we are smart and we set the goal to build a better system of governance of self-governance so we make better decisions collectively and create value not just for each of us but for all of us that you can build a civilization greater than anything that has come before with as little as 10,000 people. That is my bold contrarian belief that in the age of AGI which

28:33 starts latest next year it is possible with 10,000 people who are well organized who have a much better self-governance system who have trust and can maintain that trust to build a civilization that is greater than any civilization we see right now. That is my prediction and that is why I'm so bullish on what we are doing at Pioneerlands. That is why I want all of you to still be involved and see what's happening with Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, all these things. So we are we remember that we cannot trust these people, any of these people, any of our politicians to make any kind of decision and that we need to be much smarter because now we can. We just have to figure it out. So that's it for now. That's my message. We'll keep watching the Iran situation because it's

29:18 important and I hope you know you join me in pioneer lands and we work on these things that are much more important and that's the big picture because remember what Elon says even though he forgets politics but he's right about the tsunami that tsunami is not just bad can be also very good. I hope that was helpful. See you very soon until then.